We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other ...We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other countries will require the rapid construction of communities capable of supporting them, their families, businesses and farms. However, different political-economic conditions are found across the areas which can serve as locations for these Climate Change Haven Communities. We develop funding and construction strategies for the United States (free-market capitalism), France and Spain (European Union supported economies), and Taiwan region (state-directed economy). The proposals for the Taiwan region should also be applicable to the rest of China.展开更多
Climate change is one of the most pressing global challenges and spares no nation.Bhutan,as the only carbon negative country in the world,is no exception and being in the Himalayas–a region warming faster than the gl...Climate change is one of the most pressing global challenges and spares no nation.Bhutan,as the only carbon negative country in the world,is no exception and being in the Himalayas–a region warming faster than the global average–further intensifies climate risks.This study explores how Bhutan navigates climate change through the perspectives of 41 policy influencers,including politicians,civil servants,and leaders from nongovernment organisations and the media.The findings are compared with scientific literature from the broader Himalayan region to identify shared vulnerabilities(e.g.,glacial lake outburst floods,water scarcity,and agricultural disruptions)and governance challenges(e.g.,financial constraints,geopolitical pressures,and gaps in policy implementation).The study reveals that Bhutan,like its Himalayan neighbours,prioritizes adaptation over mitigation due to immediate climate threats,despite its carbonnegative status.However,Bhutan faces unique pressures in upholding its dual commitments—maintaining 60%forest cover and carbon neutrality—amid competing development needs.While its Gross National Happiness(GNH)framework provides a holistic governance model,the analysis uncovers systemic barriers,including limited financing,transboundary climate risks,and uneven policy execution,which mirror regional struggles.The paper contributes to climate governance discourse by highlighting the risks of symbolic environmental pledges without robust implementation mechanisms,particularly for vulnerable mountain nations.It calls for integrated policies that bridge mitigation and adaptation,stronger regional cooperation,and equitable climate financing.The findings are relevant for policymakers in the Himalayas and international stakeholders advocating context-specific,justiceoriented climate strategies.展开更多
Climate change is altering vegetation phenology,differentially affecting food quality and availability for the gosling development(and therefore fitness)of migratory herbivores,especially those experiencing range cont...Climate change is altering vegetation phenology,differentially affecting food quality and availability for the gosling development(and therefore fitness)of migratory herbivores,especially those experiencing range contraction and fragmentation.By quantifying the climate-vegetation nexus for two waterbird species of contrasting conservation status,we assessed the differential implications of climate change in semi-arid landscapes for gosling development windows in different parts of their mid-latitude breeding ranges.We defined breeding ranges using telemetry data from 663 summering tracks of tagged Swan Geese(Anser cygnoides)and Greylag Geese(A.anser)breeding across the Mongolian Plateau.Within these areas,we systematically analyzed spatiotemporal variations in vegetation phenology based on MODIS NDVI datasets from 2000 to 2024 and their response to climate factors.Combining the above data,we demonstrated synchrony between goose breeding phenology and vegetation phenological indices:gosling hatching coincided with the start of growing season(SOS),autumn migration initiation with the end of growing season(EOS).We determined temporal and geographical variation in vegetation SOS,EOS and the length of growing season(LOS=EOS-SOS)as a proxy for gosling development windows across the Mongolian Plateau.Mean LOS was 107±13 days,generally sufficient for gosling development(c.113 days),but showed spatial heterogeneity,increasing in the west but shortening in the east of Mongolian Plateau.SOS was delayed with higher land surface temperature and lower precipitation/aridity in central/eastern Mongolian Plateau,but advanced in the west.Elevation of these three climatic factors delayed EOS across Mongolian Plateau.Climate warming and hydric stress may trigger synergistic SOS-delay and EOS-advance effects in the central and eastern Mongolian Plateau,increasing differential phenological mismatch risks to offspring fitness,thereby potentially affecting population growth rates and distributions.展开更多
The accelerating impacts of climate change,rising temperatures,extreme weather events,and biodiversity loss underscore the urgent need for widespread public awareness.This research explores why climate change awarenes...The accelerating impacts of climate change,rising temperatures,extreme weather events,and biodiversity loss underscore the urgent need for widespread public awareness.This research explores why climate change awareness is not just beneficial but essential for effective environmental stewardship and the long-term health of our planet.The research proffers informed communities,encouraging sustainable practices,and driving policy advocacy,awareness serves as a model for collective action.This call to consciousness challenges individuals,institutions,and nations to recognize their role in shaping a resilient,sustainable future for the Earth.Methodology adopted in this research is a mixed-method design,involving both qualitative and quasi-experimental designs,which engages the use of focus group discussions and oral interviews to explore deeper insights into perceptions,biodiversity loss consciousness,and environmental depletion challenges.Also,applicable under the qualitative method is the secondary data collection mode,namely,reports from IPCC,government policy documents,and existing literature related to the context of the research.The empirical and scientific data analysis was presented from the data collected and was coded and subjected to analysis using a paired samples t-test.The study is grounded on the theory of“Value-Belief-Norm”(VBN)developed by Stern et al.The VBN theory posits that individuals are more likely to engage in pro-environmental behaviour when their values(especially biosphere and altruistic),beliefs(about environmental consequences),and norms(personal responsibility to act)align.The findings of this study underscore the critical role of climate change awareness in fostering environmental and earth stewardship.The paper recommends that Governments of the country(State and federal)should take urgent steps in sensitising the general public on the causes and impact of climate change.展开更多
Understanding how genetic variation within forest species influences growth responses under climate change is essential for improving the accuracy of forest models and guiding adaptive management strategies.This study...Understanding how genetic variation within forest species influences growth responses under climate change is essential for improving the accuracy of forest models and guiding adaptive management strategies.This study models the dynamics of Italian silver fir(Abies alba)forests under varying climate change scenarios using the forest gap model FORMIND.Focusing on three distinct silver fir provenances(Western Alps,Northern Apennines,and Southern Apennines),the study simulates forest growth in the Tuscan-Emilian Apennine National Park under different representative concentration pathways(RCPs).The individual-based model FORMIND was parameterized and validated with field data for each of the provenances,demonstrating its ability to accurately reproduce key forest metrics and dynamics.Our results reveal significant differences in expected growth patterns,productivity,metabolism,and carbon storage capacity among the silver fir provenances in pure and mixed stands.In the simulations,the Northern Apennines provenance showed higher biomass production(biomass>10%±1%)and carbon uptake(net primary productivity,NPP>8%±1%)at the end of the century compared to the Western Alps provenance in the pure provenance(PP)and no regeneration scenario.Conversely,the Southern Apennines provenance showed higher biomass(biomass>5%–10%)and NPP(>15%–18%)in mixed provenance(MP)and regeneration scenarios.These results show that genetic diversity strongly affects forest growth and resilience to environmental changes.Hence,it should be included as a predictor variable in forest models.The study also demonstrates the resilience of silver fir to climatic stressors,emphasizing its potential as a robust species in multiple forest contexts.The integration of forest provenance data into the FORMIND model represents a significant advancement in forest modelling,enabling more accurate and reliable predictions under climate change scenarios.The study's findings advocate for a greater understanding and consideration of genetic diversity in forest management and conservation strategies,in support of assisted migration strategies aiming to enhance the resilience of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.展开更多
As global climate change intensifies,alpine plants are facing dual pressures of habitat loss and rapid environmental degradation.As one of the world's most biodiverse countries,China's potential shifts in alpi...As global climate change intensifies,alpine plants are facing dual pressures of habitat loss and rapid environmental degradation.As one of the world's most biodiverse countries,China's potential shifts in alpine plant distribution and their profound impact on fragile ecosystems have become a focus of ecological research and conservation efforts,with increasing urgency.Meconopsis,a typical representative of Chinese alpine plants,exhibits diverse adaptability,making it an ideal model for studying how alpine species respond to extreme environmental changes.A lack of comprehensive genus-level analyses may hinder the development of long-term conservation and management strategies.Given the genus's ecological importance,vulnerability,and the risk of trait homogenization in genus-level modeling,there is an urgent need to assess its future distribution patterns,migration trends,and adaptive mechanisms based on habitat classification.In this study,we employed the Maxent model,integrating multidimensional environmental variables,to develop genus-level models and representative habitat-based models(forest,meadows,and periglacial).Results indicate a northwestward expansion and southeastward contraction of suitable habitats under future climate scenarios,with migration patterns in latitude and elevation showing stage-specific characteristics.Key environmental factors varied across models but were mostly associated with seasonal growth traits and microhabitat conditions,highlighting both the universal ecological requirements and niche differentiation within Meconopsis.Based on these findings,we propose a dynamic conservation strategy framework informed by stage-specific responses and habitat differences.Future efforts should focus on incorporating alpine-specific environmental variables and optimizing specimen collection strategies to enhance model performance and support landscape planning and biodiversity conservation.展开更多
Climate warming is significantly altering the distribution of tree species,which holds crucial implications for China’s Larix species as they are important afforestation efforts.Understanding their optimal habitats a...Climate warming is significantly altering the distribution of tree species,which holds crucial implications for China’s Larix species as they are important afforestation efforts.Understanding their optimal habitats and environmental constraints is vital for predicting range shifts and guiding adaptive forest management.Previous studies prioritized changing climate impacts on horizontal range shifts of Larix,neglecting the influence of soil factors and range shift along altitudinal gradients.To address this,we applied an optimized MaxEnt model to assess current and future SSP126/SSP585 scenarios,three-dimensional habitat suitability(latitude,longitude,altitude)for four major Larix species(L.principis-rupprechtii,L.gmelinii,L.kaempferi,L.olgensis),while identifying key environmental drivers.Our results indicate that elevation and extreme moisture conditions universally constrain their distribution.Soil chemistry properties exhibited species-specific influences:cation exchange capacity critically shaped L.principis-rupprechtii and L.gmelinii ranges,whereas exchangeable aluminum determined L.kaempferi and L.olgensis distribution.Under future climate scenarios,habitat areas show divergent trajectories-L.principis-rupprechtii maximum gains 5.1%under SSP126,while L.kaempferi maximum expands 15.1%.Conversely,SSP585 triggered a 3.7% decline for L.gmelinii during the 2040s−2100s,and L.olgensis faces a net reduction to 0.4% by 2100s despite transient gains.Spatially,three species(L.kaempferi,L.gmelinii,L.olgensis)shifted northward,while L.principis-rupprechtii migrated northwest.All species distribution ascended altitudinally reflecting thermal adaptation strategies.These multidimensional insights enable targeted species selection for climate-resilient afforestation and underscore the need for soil-inclusive management planning.展开更多
Hydrological extremes,such as floods,droughts,and compound events,are extremely dangerous to human societies,ecosystems,and infrastructures,whose frequency and severity are affected by climate change more and more.Eff...Hydrological extremes,such as floods,droughts,and compound events,are extremely dangerous to human societies,ecosystems,and infrastructures,whose frequency and severity are affected by climate change more and more.Effective disaster preparedness,water resource management,and climate adaptation have to do with accurate prediction and extensive risk assessment.This review sums up recent progress in predictive modeling and risk assessment systems in the framework of hydrological extremes in the changing climatic conditions.Statistical and empirical techniques,including extreme value theory and nonstationary frequency analysis,give probabilistic information using historic records,whereas process-based models give an understanding of physical hydrological processes at different climate and land-use conditions.New information-based and hybrid methods that use machine learning and high-resolution data take advantage of the complexity and nonlinearities and enhance the predictive power.Hazard,exposure,vulnerability,and adaptive capacity risk assessment models allow predictive output to be translated into actionable decision support,with socio-economic aspects and analysis of the scenario.Case studies of various regions across the globe show the use of these techniques to address floods,droughts,and compound events,with success and current problems.The review also addresses current trends such as compound hazard,multi-hazard integration,AI-enabled modelling,and cross-sectoral decision support,and outlines research priorities of improving predictive capability and resilience.This review will inform researchers,policymakers,and practitioners by offering a synthesis of all the effects of the hydrological extremes in climate change to formulate sound strategies for alleviating these effects.展开更多
Surface water plays an essential role in the ecohydrological cycle,especially in water-scarce regions.Changes in surface water restrict social,economic,and agricultural development.However,the patterns and underlying ...Surface water plays an essential role in the ecohydrological cycle,especially in water-scarce regions.Changes in surface water restrict social,economic,and agricultural development.However,the patterns and underlying causes of surface water changes over varying frequencies in global arid regions remain unclear.Thus,this study investigated the changes in surface water and the underlying causes using the trend analysis and Spearman correlation coefficient on the basis of multi-source remote sensing and climate datasets across global arid regions during 2000–2020.The surface water was divided into temporary surface water(TSW),seasonal surface water(SSW),and permanent surface water(PSW)by calculating the surface water inundation frequency.Considering that surface water may be influenced by precipitation in the upper basins,we analyzed the response of surface water area to climatic factors at the basin scale.The area of all surface water(ASW)increased dramatically in global arid regions from 2000 to 2020,increasing from 61.88×104 to 67.40×104 km^(2);however,this increase was accompanied by a decrease in surface water inundation frequency.TSW increased by 55.46%relative to its area in 2000,with a net change rate of 3284.00 km^(2)/a.Changes in surface water were predominantly observed in the Kyzylkum Desert in Central Asia,the Thar Desert in southwestern Asia,and the deserts in Oceania.Precipitation had a significant effect on SSW and TSW at the basin scale.The correlation between precipitation and SSW area can reach 0.808 in the Indus River Basin of the Thar Desert(P<0.01).The findings provide a more comprehensive understanding of surface water variability in global arid regions,carrying significant practical implications for the scientific management of surface water at different frequencies.展开更多
This study examined the role of green energy development in mitigating climate change and fostering sustainable development in Central Asia including Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,and Turkmenistan.The re...This study examined the role of green energy development in mitigating climate change and fostering sustainable development in Central Asia including Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,and Turkmenistan.The region has substantial untapped potential in solar energy,wind energy,hydropower energy,as well as biomass and bioenergy,positioning it strategically for renewable energy deployment.The result demonstrated that integrating renewable energy can reduce greenhouse gas emissions,improve air quality,enhance energy security,and support rural development.Case studies from Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,and Tajikistan showed measurable environmental and economic benefits.However,the large-scale use of renewable energy still faces numerous barriers,including outdated infrastructure,fragmented regulatory frameworks,limited investment,and shortages of technical expertise.Overcoming these obstacles requires institutional reform,stronger regional cooperation,and increasing engagement from international financial institutions and private investors.Modernizing grids,deploying storage systems,and investing in education,research,and innovation are critical for building human capacity in renewable energy sector.Accelerating the renewable energy transition is essential for Central Asia to meet climate goals,enhance environmental resilience,and ensure long-term socioeconomic development through innovation,investment,and regional collaboration.展开更多
Climate change significantly affects the arid/humid processes and patterns in China,directly impacting management decisions related to adaptive agriculture and water resources management,desertification control,and sp...Climate change significantly affects the arid/humid processes and patterns in China,directly impacting management decisions related to adaptive agriculture and water resources management,desertification control,and spatial ecological restoration.However,current studies primarily focus on changes in arid/humid climate variables,lacking quantitative characterization of the dynamic evolution of areal systems and their nonlinear responses.Based on the data of national meteorological stations from 1961 to 2020,we systematically quantified the nonlinear response of arid/humid patterns to climate change.The results revealed that 6.98%of eco-geographical arid/humid regions underwent type shifts over the past six decades,with 4.95%transitioning toward wetter conditions.Humid and semi-arid regions expanded significantly while sub-humid and arid regions contracted significantly.In the late 1990s,trends of the humid and sub-humid region shifted.Humid region contraction in northern China was driven primarily by precipitation decline,whereas the Tibetan Plateau responded to increasing potential evapotranspiration.During the same period,the retreat rate of the arid region slowed,linked to intensified aridification in the west part of northern China and a decelerating wetting trend in northwest China,both primarily driven by precipitation trends.Our study reveals the nonlinear response of the arid/humid patterns under climate change,providing a scientific basis for the improvement of regional climate resilience.展开更多
Based on monthly runoff and climate datasets spanning 2000–2024,this study employed the Theil–Sen’s slope estimation,Mann–Kendall(M–K)trend test,as well as Pearson correlation and Spearman rank correlation analys...Based on monthly runoff and climate datasets spanning 2000–2024,this study employed the Theil–Sen’s slope estimation,Mann–Kendall(M–K)trend test,as well as Pearson correlation and Spearman rank correlation analyses to systematically examine the spatiotemporal patterns of runoff and its climatic driving mechanisms across Tajikistan,providing a scientific basis for sustainable water resource utilization and management in the study area.Results indicated that during 2000–2024,the annual runoff in Tajikistan exhibited statistically non-significant long-term trend(P=0.76),while displaying pronounced seasonal variability and strong spatial heterogeneity.Spring and summer average runoff primarily exhibited slight declining tendencies,while winter average runoff exhibited pronounced reduction in localized regions,such as the Syr Darya Basin,the Vakhsh River Basin,and the lower reaches of the Zeravshan River Basin.Precipitation emerged as the dominant positive driver of runoff,exhibiting moderate to strong positive correlations across over 78.00%of the country,whereas potential evapotranspiration consistently functioned as a negative driver.Rising temperatures exerted a dual competitive effect on runoff:in high-elevation,glacier-covered regions,rising temperatures temporarily increased runoff by accelerating glacier melt;however,at the national scale,the negative impact of rising temperature on runoff has played a slightly dominant role to a certain extent by enhancing evapotranspiration.Collectively,these results indicated that the present stability of runoff in Tajikistan is strongly dependent on the short-term compensatory effects of glacier melt and the risk of future runoff decline is likely to intensify as glacier reserves continue to diminish.This study provides a critical scientific evidence to inform sustainable water resource management in Tajikistan and underscores the need for glacier conservation and integrated water resource management strategies.展开更多
Climate change disrupts the distribution of species and restructures their richness patterns.The genus of Asian bamboo,Phyllostachys,possesses significant ecological and economic values,and represents the most species...Climate change disrupts the distribution of species and restructures their richness patterns.The genus of Asian bamboo,Phyllostachys,possesses significant ecological and economic values,and represents the most speciesrich genus in the Bambusoideae subfamily.Based on the distribution data of 46 species and 20 environmental variables,we used the MaxEnt model combined with ArcGIS calculations to simulate current and future potential richness distributions under three distinct CO_(2) emission scenarios.The results showed that the MaxEnt model had a good predictive ability,with a mean area under the working characteristic curve(AUC value)of 0.91 for all species.The main environmental variables that impacted the future distribution of most Phyllostachys species were elevation,variations of seasonal precipitation,and mean diurnal range.Phyllostachys species are currently concentrated in southeastern China.Under future climate projections,18 species exhibited significant habitat contraction across three or more future climate scenarios,but suitable habitats for other species will expand.This enhancement is most pronounced under the extreme climate scenario(2090s-SSP585),primarily driven by high species gains contributing to elevated turnover values across scenarios.The center of maximum richness will progressively shift southwestward over time.Predictive modeling of Phyllostachys richness distribution dynamics under climate change enhances our understanding of its biogeography and informs strategic introduction programs to bamboo management and augments China’s carbon sequestration capacity.展开更多
Changes in the soil environment induced by major global changes in climate are affecting carbon emissions in cold-temperate coniferous forests.A randomized block experiment simulating warming,rainfall increase and nit...Changes in the soil environment induced by major global changes in climate are affecting carbon emissions in cold-temperate coniferous forests.A randomized block experiment simulating warming,rainfall increase and nitrogen addition in a Larix gmelinii forest was carried out to study the effects on soil carbon,nitrogen,and CO_(2)flux during the thawing,growing,and freezing periods.Our study found that warming(0-2.0℃)increased soil organic carbon(SOC)and total nitrogen(STN),dissolved organic carbon(DOC)and dissolved organic nitrogen(DON),and microbial biomass carbon(MBC)and microbial biomass nitrogen(MBN).Warming played a direct role in regulating soil CO_(2)emissions,stimulated microbial and plant root respiration and soil CO_(2)flux rapidly increased.Rainfall increase initially increased soil carbon and nitrogen,but a 30%increase in mean annual rainfall caused losses of SOC,STN,DOC,and DON,while MBC and MBN accumulated.Soil CO_(2)emissions were regulated by MBC after an increase in rainfall,excess moisture inhibited microbial activity,and soil CO_(2)flux showed a trend of R2(20%rainfall increase)>R1(10%rainfall increase)>CK(control)>R3(30%rainfall increase).The addition of nitrogen increased SOC,STN,DOC,DON,MBC and MBN.Soil CO_(2)flux progressively decreased with nitrogen inputs(2.5,5.0 and 10.0 g m^(-2)a^(-1)),as more N intensified plant-microbe competition.Nitrogen addition indirectly regulated soil CO_(2)emissions by altering SOC and STN,with MBC and MBN acting as secondary regulators.The results highlight the role of cold-temperate coniferous forest soils in predicting carbon-climate feedback in high-latitude forest permafrost regions.展开更多
The hydrological system in Central Asia is highly sensitive to global climate change,significantly affecting water supply and energy production.In Tajikistan,the Vakhsh River—one of the main tributaries of the Amu Da...The hydrological system in Central Asia is highly sensitive to global climate change,significantly affecting water supply and energy production.In Tajikistan,the Vakhsh River—one of the main tributaries of the Amu Darya—plays a key role in the region’s hydropower and irrigation.However,research on long-term hydrological changes in its two top large basins—the Surkhob and Khingov river basins—remains limited.Therefore,this study analyzed long-term climate and hydrological changes in the Vakhsh River,including its main tributaries—the Surkhob and Khingov rivers—which are vital for the water resource management in Tajikistan and even in Central Asia.Using long-term hydrometeorological observations,the change trends of temperature(1933–2020),precipitation(1970–2020),and runoff(1940–2018)were examined to assess the impact of climate change on the regional water resources.The analysis revealed the occurrence of significant warming and a spatially uneven increase in precipitation.The temperature changes across three climatic periods(1933–1960,1960–1990,and 1990–2020)indicated that there was a transition from baseline level to accelerated warming.The precipitation showed a 2.99 mm/a increase in the Khingov River Basin and a 2.80 mm/a increase in the Surkhob River Basin during 1970–2020.Moreover,there was a gradual shift toward wetter conditions in recent decades.Despite the relatively stable annual mean runoff,seasonal redistribution occurred,with increased runoff in spring and reduced runoff in summer,due to the compensation of glacier melting.Moreover,this study forecasted runoff change during 2019–2040 using the exponential triple smoothing(ETS)method and revealed the occurrence of alternating wet and dry phases,emphasizing the sensitivity of the Vakhsh River Basin’s hydrological system to climate change and the necessity of adaptive water resource management in mountainous regions of Central Asia.Therefore,this study can provide evidence-based insights that are critical for future water resources planning,climate-resilient hydropower development,and regional adaptation strategies in climate-vulnerable basins in Central Asia.展开更多
To address climate change and highlight its global nature,the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)was adopted for the first time in history within the UN framework on May 9,1992,clearly establ...To address climate change and highlight its global nature,the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)was adopted for the first time in history within the UN framework on May 9,1992,clearly establishing the obligations of developed countries to take the lead in emission reduction and provide financial,technological,and capacity-building support to developing countries.Particularly since the 2015 Paris Agreement,successive UN climate conferences have placed high emphasis on financial and technological matters,with financial arrangements demonstrating an increasingly specific trend in recent years.The Glasgow Climate Pact adopted in 2021 urges developed country Parties to deliver on their commitment to the goal of providing USD 100 billion to developing country prties,while also urging developed country parties to at least double their provision of climate finance to developing country parties by 2025 compared to 2019 levels.展开更多
There have been an increasing number of studies on climate change and population health over the past 20 years,with most focusing on health risk assessment,targeting different locations and populations with various di...There have been an increasing number of studies on climate change and population health over the past 20 years,with most focusing on health risk assessment,targeting different locations and populations with various diseases[1−2].While these studies have provided the necessary epidemiological evidence for health authorities in policymaking,it is time to develop and implement tailored health interventions to protect the health and well-being of communities,and particularly that of vulnerable groups.展开更多
Located downstream the Kupang Catchment in Indonesia,Pekalongan faces significant land subsidence issues,leading to severe coastal flooding.This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on future flow regime...Located downstream the Kupang Catchment in Indonesia,Pekalongan faces significant land subsidence issues,leading to severe coastal flooding.This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on future flow regimes and hydrological extremes to inform long-term water resources management strategies for the Kupang Catchment.Utilizing precipitation and air temperature data from general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)and employing bias correction techniques,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)hydrological model was employed to analyze climate-induced changes in hydrological fluxes,specifically streamflow.Results indicated a consistent increase in monthly streamflow during the wet season,with a substantial rise of 22.8%,alongside a slight decrease of 18.0%during the dry season.Moreover,both the frequency and severity of extremely low and high flows were projected to intensify by approximately 50%and 70%,respectively,for a 20-year return period,suggesting heightened flood and drought risks in the future.The observed declining trend in low flow,by up to 11%,indicated the potential for long-term groundwater depletion exacerbating the threat of land subsidence and coastal flooding,especially in areas with inadequate surface water management policies and infrastructure.展开更多
Aboveground biomass(AGB)and belowground biomass(BGB)are key components of carbon storage,yet their responses to future climate changes remain poorly understood,particularly in China.Understanding these dynamics is ess...Aboveground biomass(AGB)and belowground biomass(BGB)are key components of carbon storage,yet their responses to future climate changes remain poorly understood,particularly in China.Understanding these dynamics is essential for global carbon cycle modeling and ecosystem management.This study integrates field observations,machine learning,and multi-source remote sensing data to reconstruct the distributions of AGB and BGB in China from 2000 to 2020.Then CMIP6 was used to predict the distribution of China under three SSP scenarios(SSP1-1.9,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5)from 2020 to 2100 to fill the existing knowledge gap.The predictive accuracy for AGB(R^(2)=0.85)was significantly higher than for BGB(R^(2)=0.48),likely due to the greater complexity of modeling belowground dynamics.NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)and soil organic carbon density(SOC)were identified as the primary drivers of AGB and BGB changes.During 2000-2020,AGB in China remained stable at approximately 10.69 Pg C,while BGB was around 5.06 Pg C.Forest ecosystems contributed 88.52% of AGB and 43.83% of BGB.AGB showed a relatively slow annual increase,while BGB demonstrated a significant annual growth rate of approximately 37 Tg C yr^(−1).Under the low-emission scenario,both AGB and BGB show fluctuations and steady growth,particularly in South China and the northwestern part of Northeast China.Under the moderate-emission scenario,AGB and BGB show significant declines and increases,respectively.In the high-emission scenario,both AGB and BGB decline significantly,particularly in the southwestern and central regions.These results provide valuable insights into ecosystem carbon dynamics under climate change,emphasizing the relatively low responsiveness of AGB and BGB to climatic variability,and offering guidance for sustainable land use and management strategies.展开更多
Food systems are deeply affected by climate change and air pollution,while being key contributors to these environmental challenges.Understanding the complex interactions among food systems,climate change,and air poll...Food systems are deeply affected by climate change and air pollution,while being key contributors to these environmental challenges.Understanding the complex interactions among food systems,climate change,and air pollution is crucial for mitigating climate change,improving air quality,and promoting the sustainable development of food systems.However,the literature lacks a comprehensive review of these interactions,particularly in the current phase of rapid development in the field.To address this gap,this study systematically reviews recent research on the impacts of climate change and air pollution on food systems,as well as the greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions from agri-food systems and their contribution to global climate change and air pollution.In addition,this study summarizes various strategies for mitigation and adaptation,including adjustments in agricultural practices and food supply chains.Profound changes in food systems are urgently needed to enhance adaptability and reduce emissions.This review offers a critical overview of current research on the interactions among food systems,climate change,and air pollution and highlights future research directions to support the transition to sustainable food systems.展开更多
文摘We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other countries will require the rapid construction of communities capable of supporting them, their families, businesses and farms. However, different political-economic conditions are found across the areas which can serve as locations for these Climate Change Haven Communities. We develop funding and construction strategies for the United States (free-market capitalism), France and Spain (European Union supported economies), and Taiwan region (state-directed economy). The proposals for the Taiwan region should also be applicable to the rest of China.
文摘Climate change is one of the most pressing global challenges and spares no nation.Bhutan,as the only carbon negative country in the world,is no exception and being in the Himalayas–a region warming faster than the global average–further intensifies climate risks.This study explores how Bhutan navigates climate change through the perspectives of 41 policy influencers,including politicians,civil servants,and leaders from nongovernment organisations and the media.The findings are compared with scientific literature from the broader Himalayan region to identify shared vulnerabilities(e.g.,glacial lake outburst floods,water scarcity,and agricultural disruptions)and governance challenges(e.g.,financial constraints,geopolitical pressures,and gaps in policy implementation).The study reveals that Bhutan,like its Himalayan neighbours,prioritizes adaptation over mitigation due to immediate climate threats,despite its carbonnegative status.However,Bhutan faces unique pressures in upholding its dual commitments—maintaining 60%forest cover and carbon neutrality—amid competing development needs.While its Gross National Happiness(GNH)framework provides a holistic governance model,the analysis uncovers systemic barriers,including limited financing,transboundary climate risks,and uneven policy execution,which mirror regional struggles.The paper contributes to climate governance discourse by highlighting the risks of symbolic environmental pledges without robust implementation mechanisms,particularly for vulnerable mountain nations.It calls for integrated policies that bridge mitigation and adaptation,stronger regional cooperation,and equitable climate financing.The findings are relevant for policymakers in the Himalayas and international stakeholders advocating context-specific,justiceoriented climate strategies.
基金supported by the JOINT CAS-MPG Research Project(Grant No.HZXM20225001MI)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.W2412056,42271116 and 32100373)the China Biodiversity Observation Networks(Sino BON)。
文摘Climate change is altering vegetation phenology,differentially affecting food quality and availability for the gosling development(and therefore fitness)of migratory herbivores,especially those experiencing range contraction and fragmentation.By quantifying the climate-vegetation nexus for two waterbird species of contrasting conservation status,we assessed the differential implications of climate change in semi-arid landscapes for gosling development windows in different parts of their mid-latitude breeding ranges.We defined breeding ranges using telemetry data from 663 summering tracks of tagged Swan Geese(Anser cygnoides)and Greylag Geese(A.anser)breeding across the Mongolian Plateau.Within these areas,we systematically analyzed spatiotemporal variations in vegetation phenology based on MODIS NDVI datasets from 2000 to 2024 and their response to climate factors.Combining the above data,we demonstrated synchrony between goose breeding phenology and vegetation phenological indices:gosling hatching coincided with the start of growing season(SOS),autumn migration initiation with the end of growing season(EOS).We determined temporal and geographical variation in vegetation SOS,EOS and the length of growing season(LOS=EOS-SOS)as a proxy for gosling development windows across the Mongolian Plateau.Mean LOS was 107±13 days,generally sufficient for gosling development(c.113 days),but showed spatial heterogeneity,increasing in the west but shortening in the east of Mongolian Plateau.SOS was delayed with higher land surface temperature and lower precipitation/aridity in central/eastern Mongolian Plateau,but advanced in the west.Elevation of these three climatic factors delayed EOS across Mongolian Plateau.Climate warming and hydric stress may trigger synergistic SOS-delay and EOS-advance effects in the central and eastern Mongolian Plateau,increasing differential phenological mismatch risks to offspring fitness,thereby potentially affecting population growth rates and distributions.
文摘The accelerating impacts of climate change,rising temperatures,extreme weather events,and biodiversity loss underscore the urgent need for widespread public awareness.This research explores why climate change awareness is not just beneficial but essential for effective environmental stewardship and the long-term health of our planet.The research proffers informed communities,encouraging sustainable practices,and driving policy advocacy,awareness serves as a model for collective action.This call to consciousness challenges individuals,institutions,and nations to recognize their role in shaping a resilient,sustainable future for the Earth.Methodology adopted in this research is a mixed-method design,involving both qualitative and quasi-experimental designs,which engages the use of focus group discussions and oral interviews to explore deeper insights into perceptions,biodiversity loss consciousness,and environmental depletion challenges.Also,applicable under the qualitative method is the secondary data collection mode,namely,reports from IPCC,government policy documents,and existing literature related to the context of the research.The empirical and scientific data analysis was presented from the data collected and was coded and subjected to analysis using a paired samples t-test.The study is grounded on the theory of“Value-Belief-Norm”(VBN)developed by Stern et al.The VBN theory posits that individuals are more likely to engage in pro-environmental behaviour when their values(especially biosphere and altruistic),beliefs(about environmental consequences),and norms(personal responsibility to act)align.The findings of this study underscore the critical role of climate change awareness in fostering environmental and earth stewardship.The paper recommends that Governments of the country(State and federal)should take urgent steps in sensitising the general public on the causes and impact of climate change.
基金the University of Milan for funding the“ProForesta”project through the 2020 Research Support Planthe“Ente Parco Nazionale dell'Appennino Tosco-Emiliano”for having financed the project“First urgent measures to promote the adaptation of the silver fir forests of the Tuscan-Emilian Apennine National Park to the effects of climate change”。
文摘Understanding how genetic variation within forest species influences growth responses under climate change is essential for improving the accuracy of forest models and guiding adaptive management strategies.This study models the dynamics of Italian silver fir(Abies alba)forests under varying climate change scenarios using the forest gap model FORMIND.Focusing on three distinct silver fir provenances(Western Alps,Northern Apennines,and Southern Apennines),the study simulates forest growth in the Tuscan-Emilian Apennine National Park under different representative concentration pathways(RCPs).The individual-based model FORMIND was parameterized and validated with field data for each of the provenances,demonstrating its ability to accurately reproduce key forest metrics and dynamics.Our results reveal significant differences in expected growth patterns,productivity,metabolism,and carbon storage capacity among the silver fir provenances in pure and mixed stands.In the simulations,the Northern Apennines provenance showed higher biomass production(biomass>10%±1%)and carbon uptake(net primary productivity,NPP>8%±1%)at the end of the century compared to the Western Alps provenance in the pure provenance(PP)and no regeneration scenario.Conversely,the Southern Apennines provenance showed higher biomass(biomass>5%–10%)and NPP(>15%–18%)in mixed provenance(MP)and regeneration scenarios.These results show that genetic diversity strongly affects forest growth and resilience to environmental changes.Hence,it should be included as a predictor variable in forest models.The study also demonstrates the resilience of silver fir to climatic stressors,emphasizing its potential as a robust species in multiple forest contexts.The integration of forest provenance data into the FORMIND model represents a significant advancement in forest modelling,enabling more accurate and reliable predictions under climate change scenarios.The study's findings advocate for a greater understanding and consideration of genetic diversity in forest management and conservation strategies,in support of assisted migration strategies aiming to enhance the resilience of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.
文摘As global climate change intensifies,alpine plants are facing dual pressures of habitat loss and rapid environmental degradation.As one of the world's most biodiverse countries,China's potential shifts in alpine plant distribution and their profound impact on fragile ecosystems have become a focus of ecological research and conservation efforts,with increasing urgency.Meconopsis,a typical representative of Chinese alpine plants,exhibits diverse adaptability,making it an ideal model for studying how alpine species respond to extreme environmental changes.A lack of comprehensive genus-level analyses may hinder the development of long-term conservation and management strategies.Given the genus's ecological importance,vulnerability,and the risk of trait homogenization in genus-level modeling,there is an urgent need to assess its future distribution patterns,migration trends,and adaptive mechanisms based on habitat classification.In this study,we employed the Maxent model,integrating multidimensional environmental variables,to develop genus-level models and representative habitat-based models(forest,meadows,and periglacial).Results indicate a northwestward expansion and southeastward contraction of suitable habitats under future climate scenarios,with migration patterns in latitude and elevation showing stage-specific characteristics.Key environmental factors varied across models but were mostly associated with seasonal growth traits and microhabitat conditions,highlighting both the universal ecological requirements and niche differentiation within Meconopsis.Based on these findings,we propose a dynamic conservation strategy framework informed by stage-specific responses and habitat differences.Future efforts should focus on incorporating alpine-specific environmental variables and optimizing specimen collection strategies to enhance model performance and support landscape planning and biodiversity conservation.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFD2200501).
文摘Climate warming is significantly altering the distribution of tree species,which holds crucial implications for China’s Larix species as they are important afforestation efforts.Understanding their optimal habitats and environmental constraints is vital for predicting range shifts and guiding adaptive forest management.Previous studies prioritized changing climate impacts on horizontal range shifts of Larix,neglecting the influence of soil factors and range shift along altitudinal gradients.To address this,we applied an optimized MaxEnt model to assess current and future SSP126/SSP585 scenarios,three-dimensional habitat suitability(latitude,longitude,altitude)for four major Larix species(L.principis-rupprechtii,L.gmelinii,L.kaempferi,L.olgensis),while identifying key environmental drivers.Our results indicate that elevation and extreme moisture conditions universally constrain their distribution.Soil chemistry properties exhibited species-specific influences:cation exchange capacity critically shaped L.principis-rupprechtii and L.gmelinii ranges,whereas exchangeable aluminum determined L.kaempferi and L.olgensis distribution.Under future climate scenarios,habitat areas show divergent trajectories-L.principis-rupprechtii maximum gains 5.1%under SSP126,while L.kaempferi maximum expands 15.1%.Conversely,SSP585 triggered a 3.7% decline for L.gmelinii during the 2040s−2100s,and L.olgensis faces a net reduction to 0.4% by 2100s despite transient gains.Spatially,three species(L.kaempferi,L.gmelinii,L.olgensis)shifted northward,while L.principis-rupprechtii migrated northwest.All species distribution ascended altitudinally reflecting thermal adaptation strategies.These multidimensional insights enable targeted species selection for climate-resilient afforestation and underscore the need for soil-inclusive management planning.
文摘Hydrological extremes,such as floods,droughts,and compound events,are extremely dangerous to human societies,ecosystems,and infrastructures,whose frequency and severity are affected by climate change more and more.Effective disaster preparedness,water resource management,and climate adaptation have to do with accurate prediction and extensive risk assessment.This review sums up recent progress in predictive modeling and risk assessment systems in the framework of hydrological extremes in the changing climatic conditions.Statistical and empirical techniques,including extreme value theory and nonstationary frequency analysis,give probabilistic information using historic records,whereas process-based models give an understanding of physical hydrological processes at different climate and land-use conditions.New information-based and hybrid methods that use machine learning and high-resolution data take advantage of the complexity and nonlinearities and enhance the predictive power.Hazard,exposure,vulnerability,and adaptive capacity risk assessment models allow predictive output to be translated into actionable decision support,with socio-economic aspects and analysis of the scenario.Case studies of various regions across the globe show the use of these techniques to address floods,droughts,and compound events,with success and current problems.The review also addresses current trends such as compound hazard,multi-hazard integration,AI-enabled modelling,and cross-sectoral decision support,and outlines research priorities of improving predictive capability and resilience.This review will inform researchers,policymakers,and practitioners by offering a synthesis of all the effects of the hydrological extremes in climate change to formulate sound strategies for alleviating these effects.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFC3208701)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(B210201035).
文摘Surface water plays an essential role in the ecohydrological cycle,especially in water-scarce regions.Changes in surface water restrict social,economic,and agricultural development.However,the patterns and underlying causes of surface water changes over varying frequencies in global arid regions remain unclear.Thus,this study investigated the changes in surface water and the underlying causes using the trend analysis and Spearman correlation coefficient on the basis of multi-source remote sensing and climate datasets across global arid regions during 2000–2020.The surface water was divided into temporary surface water(TSW),seasonal surface water(SSW),and permanent surface water(PSW)by calculating the surface water inundation frequency.Considering that surface water may be influenced by precipitation in the upper basins,we analyzed the response of surface water area to climatic factors at the basin scale.The area of all surface water(ASW)increased dramatically in global arid regions from 2000 to 2020,increasing from 61.88×104 to 67.40×104 km^(2);however,this increase was accompanied by a decrease in surface water inundation frequency.TSW increased by 55.46%relative to its area in 2000,with a net change rate of 3284.00 km^(2)/a.Changes in surface water were predominantly observed in the Kyzylkum Desert in Central Asia,the Thar Desert in southwestern Asia,and the deserts in Oceania.Precipitation had a significant effect on SSW and TSW at the basin scale.The correlation between precipitation and SSW area can reach 0.808 in the Indus River Basin of the Thar Desert(P<0.01).The findings provide a more comprehensive understanding of surface water variability in global arid regions,carrying significant practical implications for the scientific management of surface water at different frequencies.
文摘This study examined the role of green energy development in mitigating climate change and fostering sustainable development in Central Asia including Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,Tajikistan,and Turkmenistan.The region has substantial untapped potential in solar energy,wind energy,hydropower energy,as well as biomass and bioenergy,positioning it strategically for renewable energy deployment.The result demonstrated that integrating renewable energy can reduce greenhouse gas emissions,improve air quality,enhance energy security,and support rural development.Case studies from Kazakhstan,Uzbekistan,Kyrgyzstan,and Tajikistan showed measurable environmental and economic benefits.However,the large-scale use of renewable energy still faces numerous barriers,including outdated infrastructure,fragmented regulatory frameworks,limited investment,and shortages of technical expertise.Overcoming these obstacles requires institutional reform,stronger regional cooperation,and increasing engagement from international financial institutions and private investors.Modernizing grids,deploying storage systems,and investing in education,research,and innovation are critical for building human capacity in renewable energy sector.Accelerating the renewable energy transition is essential for Central Asia to meet climate goals,enhance environmental resilience,and ensure long-term socioeconomic development through innovation,investment,and regional collaboration.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42377460。
文摘Climate change significantly affects the arid/humid processes and patterns in China,directly impacting management decisions related to adaptive agriculture and water resources management,desertification control,and spatial ecological restoration.However,current studies primarily focus on changes in arid/humid climate variables,lacking quantitative characterization of the dynamic evolution of areal systems and their nonlinear responses.Based on the data of national meteorological stations from 1961 to 2020,we systematically quantified the nonlinear response of arid/humid patterns to climate change.The results revealed that 6.98%of eco-geographical arid/humid regions underwent type shifts over the past six decades,with 4.95%transitioning toward wetter conditions.Humid and semi-arid regions expanded significantly while sub-humid and arid regions contracted significantly.In the late 1990s,trends of the humid and sub-humid region shifted.Humid region contraction in northern China was driven primarily by precipitation decline,whereas the Tibetan Plateau responded to increasing potential evapotranspiration.During the same period,the retreat rate of the arid region slowed,linked to intensified aridification in the west part of northern China and a decelerating wetting trend in northwest China,both primarily driven by precipitation trends.Our study reveals the nonlinear response of the arid/humid patterns under climate change,providing a scientific basis for the improvement of regional climate resilience.
基金funded by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDB0720203)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFF0805603).
文摘Based on monthly runoff and climate datasets spanning 2000–2024,this study employed the Theil–Sen’s slope estimation,Mann–Kendall(M–K)trend test,as well as Pearson correlation and Spearman rank correlation analyses to systematically examine the spatiotemporal patterns of runoff and its climatic driving mechanisms across Tajikistan,providing a scientific basis for sustainable water resource utilization and management in the study area.Results indicated that during 2000–2024,the annual runoff in Tajikistan exhibited statistically non-significant long-term trend(P=0.76),while displaying pronounced seasonal variability and strong spatial heterogeneity.Spring and summer average runoff primarily exhibited slight declining tendencies,while winter average runoff exhibited pronounced reduction in localized regions,such as the Syr Darya Basin,the Vakhsh River Basin,and the lower reaches of the Zeravshan River Basin.Precipitation emerged as the dominant positive driver of runoff,exhibiting moderate to strong positive correlations across over 78.00%of the country,whereas potential evapotranspiration consistently functioned as a negative driver.Rising temperatures exerted a dual competitive effect on runoff:in high-elevation,glacier-covered regions,rising temperatures temporarily increased runoff by accelerating glacier melt;however,at the national scale,the negative impact of rising temperature on runoff has played a slightly dominant role to a certain extent by enhancing evapotranspiration.Collectively,these results indicated that the present stability of runoff in Tajikistan is strongly dependent on the short-term compensatory effects of glacier melt and the risk of future runoff decline is likely to intensify as glacier reserves continue to diminish.This study provides a critical scientific evidence to inform sustainable water resource management in Tajikistan and underscores the need for glacier conservation and integrated water resource management strategies.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation of China(32201643)the Key Research Projects of Yibin,research and integrated demonstration and key technologies for smart bamboo industry(YBZD2024-1).
文摘Climate change disrupts the distribution of species and restructures their richness patterns.The genus of Asian bamboo,Phyllostachys,possesses significant ecological and economic values,and represents the most speciesrich genus in the Bambusoideae subfamily.Based on the distribution data of 46 species and 20 environmental variables,we used the MaxEnt model combined with ArcGIS calculations to simulate current and future potential richness distributions under three distinct CO_(2) emission scenarios.The results showed that the MaxEnt model had a good predictive ability,with a mean area under the working characteristic curve(AUC value)of 0.91 for all species.The main environmental variables that impacted the future distribution of most Phyllostachys species were elevation,variations of seasonal precipitation,and mean diurnal range.Phyllostachys species are currently concentrated in southeastern China.Under future climate projections,18 species exhibited significant habitat contraction across three or more future climate scenarios,but suitable habitats for other species will expand.This enhancement is most pronounced under the extreme climate scenario(2090s-SSP585),primarily driven by high species gains contributing to elevated turnover values across scenarios.The center of maximum richness will progressively shift southwestward over time.Predictive modeling of Phyllostachys richness distribution dynamics under climate change enhances our understanding of its biogeography and informs strategic introduction programs to bamboo management and augments China’s carbon sequestration capacity.
基金funded by the Science and Technology Programme of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region(Grant No.:2023YFDZ0026 and 2024KYPT0003)the 2024 Postgraduate Research and Innovation Programme of Inner Mongolia Agricultural University。
文摘Changes in the soil environment induced by major global changes in climate are affecting carbon emissions in cold-temperate coniferous forests.A randomized block experiment simulating warming,rainfall increase and nitrogen addition in a Larix gmelinii forest was carried out to study the effects on soil carbon,nitrogen,and CO_(2)flux during the thawing,growing,and freezing periods.Our study found that warming(0-2.0℃)increased soil organic carbon(SOC)and total nitrogen(STN),dissolved organic carbon(DOC)and dissolved organic nitrogen(DON),and microbial biomass carbon(MBC)and microbial biomass nitrogen(MBN).Warming played a direct role in regulating soil CO_(2)emissions,stimulated microbial and plant root respiration and soil CO_(2)flux rapidly increased.Rainfall increase initially increased soil carbon and nitrogen,but a 30%increase in mean annual rainfall caused losses of SOC,STN,DOC,and DON,while MBC and MBN accumulated.Soil CO_(2)emissions were regulated by MBC after an increase in rainfall,excess moisture inhibited microbial activity,and soil CO_(2)flux showed a trend of R2(20%rainfall increase)>R1(10%rainfall increase)>CK(control)>R3(30%rainfall increase).The addition of nitrogen increased SOC,STN,DOC,DON,MBC and MBN.Soil CO_(2)flux progressively decreased with nitrogen inputs(2.5,5.0 and 10.0 g m^(-2)a^(-1)),as more N intensified plant-microbe competition.Nitrogen addition indirectly regulated soil CO_(2)emissions by altering SOC and STN,with MBC and MBN acting as secondary regulators.The results highlight the role of cold-temperate coniferous forest soils in predicting carbon-climate feedback in high-latitude forest permafrost regions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(W2412135).
文摘The hydrological system in Central Asia is highly sensitive to global climate change,significantly affecting water supply and energy production.In Tajikistan,the Vakhsh River—one of the main tributaries of the Amu Darya—plays a key role in the region’s hydropower and irrigation.However,research on long-term hydrological changes in its two top large basins—the Surkhob and Khingov river basins—remains limited.Therefore,this study analyzed long-term climate and hydrological changes in the Vakhsh River,including its main tributaries—the Surkhob and Khingov rivers—which are vital for the water resource management in Tajikistan and even in Central Asia.Using long-term hydrometeorological observations,the change trends of temperature(1933–2020),precipitation(1970–2020),and runoff(1940–2018)were examined to assess the impact of climate change on the regional water resources.The analysis revealed the occurrence of significant warming and a spatially uneven increase in precipitation.The temperature changes across three climatic periods(1933–1960,1960–1990,and 1990–2020)indicated that there was a transition from baseline level to accelerated warming.The precipitation showed a 2.99 mm/a increase in the Khingov River Basin and a 2.80 mm/a increase in the Surkhob River Basin during 1970–2020.Moreover,there was a gradual shift toward wetter conditions in recent decades.Despite the relatively stable annual mean runoff,seasonal redistribution occurred,with increased runoff in spring and reduced runoff in summer,due to the compensation of glacier melting.Moreover,this study forecasted runoff change during 2019–2040 using the exponential triple smoothing(ETS)method and revealed the occurrence of alternating wet and dry phases,emphasizing the sensitivity of the Vakhsh River Basin’s hydrological system to climate change and the necessity of adaptive water resource management in mountainous regions of Central Asia.Therefore,this study can provide evidence-based insights that are critical for future water resources planning,climate-resilient hydropower development,and regional adaptation strategies in climate-vulnerable basins in Central Asia.
文摘To address climate change and highlight its global nature,the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)was adopted for the first time in history within the UN framework on May 9,1992,clearly establishing the obligations of developed countries to take the lead in emission reduction and provide financial,technological,and capacity-building support to developing countries.Particularly since the 2015 Paris Agreement,successive UN climate conferences have placed high emphasis on financial and technological matters,with financial arrangements demonstrating an increasingly specific trend in recent years.The Glasgow Climate Pact adopted in 2021 urges developed country Parties to deliver on their commitment to the goal of providing USD 100 billion to developing country prties,while also urging developed country parties to at least double their provision of climate finance to developing country parties by 2025 compared to 2019 levels.
文摘There have been an increasing number of studies on climate change and population health over the past 20 years,with most focusing on health risk assessment,targeting different locations and populations with various diseases[1−2].While these studies have provided the necessary epidemiological evidence for health authorities in policymaking,it is time to develop and implement tailored health interventions to protect the health and well-being of communities,and particularly that of vulnerable groups.
基金supported by the funding Riset Unggulan Daerah 2022 of the Bureau of Development Planning and Research in Central Java Province(BAPPEDA Provinsi Jawa Tengah).
文摘Located downstream the Kupang Catchment in Indonesia,Pekalongan faces significant land subsidence issues,leading to severe coastal flooding.This study aimed to assess the impact of climate change on future flow regimes and hydrological extremes to inform long-term water resources management strategies for the Kupang Catchment.Utilizing precipitation and air temperature data from general circulation models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)and employing bias correction techniques,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)hydrological model was employed to analyze climate-induced changes in hydrological fluxes,specifically streamflow.Results indicated a consistent increase in monthly streamflow during the wet season,with a substantial rise of 22.8%,alongside a slight decrease of 18.0%during the dry season.Moreover,both the frequency and severity of extremely low and high flows were projected to intensify by approximately 50%and 70%,respectively,for a 20-year return period,suggesting heightened flood and drought risks in the future.The observed declining trend in low flow,by up to 11%,indicated the potential for long-term groundwater depletion exacerbating the threat of land subsidence and coastal flooding,especially in areas with inadequate surface water management policies and infrastructure.
基金supported by the Tianchi Talent-Young Doctor Program of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,the Innovation Training Program for Undergraduates at the Autonomous Region Level in 2024(Grant No.S202410755009)the Innovation Training Program for Undergraduates at the University Level in 2024(Grant No.XJU-SRT-24008)+3 种基金the National Innovation Training Program for College Students in 2024(Grant No.202410755009)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42401065)the Basic and Applied Basic Research Program of Guangdong Province,China(Grant No.2023A1515011273)the Research Projects of the Department of Education of Guangdong Province(Grant No.2023KTSCX315).
文摘Aboveground biomass(AGB)and belowground biomass(BGB)are key components of carbon storage,yet their responses to future climate changes remain poorly understood,particularly in China.Understanding these dynamics is essential for global carbon cycle modeling and ecosystem management.This study integrates field observations,machine learning,and multi-source remote sensing data to reconstruct the distributions of AGB and BGB in China from 2000 to 2020.Then CMIP6 was used to predict the distribution of China under three SSP scenarios(SSP1-1.9,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5)from 2020 to 2100 to fill the existing knowledge gap.The predictive accuracy for AGB(R^(2)=0.85)was significantly higher than for BGB(R^(2)=0.48),likely due to the greater complexity of modeling belowground dynamics.NDVI(Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)and soil organic carbon density(SOC)were identified as the primary drivers of AGB and BGB changes.During 2000-2020,AGB in China remained stable at approximately 10.69 Pg C,while BGB was around 5.06 Pg C.Forest ecosystems contributed 88.52% of AGB and 43.83% of BGB.AGB showed a relatively slow annual increase,while BGB demonstrated a significant annual growth rate of approximately 37 Tg C yr^(−1).Under the low-emission scenario,both AGB and BGB show fluctuations and steady growth,particularly in South China and the northwestern part of Northeast China.Under the moderate-emission scenario,AGB and BGB show significant declines and increases,respectively.In the high-emission scenario,both AGB and BGB decline significantly,particularly in the southwestern and central regions.These results provide valuable insights into ecosystem carbon dynamics under climate change,emphasizing the relatively low responsiveness of AGB and BGB to climatic variability,and offering guidance for sustainable land use and management strategies.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42277087,42130708,42471021,42277482,and 42361144876)the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2024A1515012550)+3 种基金the Hainan Institute of National Park grant(KY-23ZK01)the Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School Cross-disciplinary Research and Innovation Fund Research Plan(JC2022011)the Shenzhen Science and Technology Program(JCYJ20240813112106009 and ZDSYS20220606100806014)the Scientific Research Start-up Funds(QD2021030C)from Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School。
文摘Food systems are deeply affected by climate change and air pollution,while being key contributors to these environmental challenges.Understanding the complex interactions among food systems,climate change,and air pollution is crucial for mitigating climate change,improving air quality,and promoting the sustainable development of food systems.However,the literature lacks a comprehensive review of these interactions,particularly in the current phase of rapid development in the field.To address this gap,this study systematically reviews recent research on the impacts of climate change and air pollution on food systems,as well as the greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions from agri-food systems and their contribution to global climate change and air pollution.In addition,this study summarizes various strategies for mitigation and adaptation,including adjustments in agricultural practices and food supply chains.Profound changes in food systems are urgently needed to enhance adaptability and reduce emissions.This review offers a critical overview of current research on the interactions among food systems,climate change,and air pollution and highlights future research directions to support the transition to sustainable food systems.
