Climate change is one of the most pressing global challenges and spares no nation.Bhutan,as the only carbon negative country in the world,is no exception and being in the Himalayas–a region warming faster than the gl...Climate change is one of the most pressing global challenges and spares no nation.Bhutan,as the only carbon negative country in the world,is no exception and being in the Himalayas–a region warming faster than the global average–further intensifies climate risks.This study explores how Bhutan navigates climate change through the perspectives of 41 policy influencers,including politicians,civil servants,and leaders from nongovernment organisations and the media.The findings are compared with scientific literature from the broader Himalayan region to identify shared vulnerabilities(e.g.,glacial lake outburst floods,water scarcity,and agricultural disruptions)and governance challenges(e.g.,financial constraints,geopolitical pressures,and gaps in policy implementation).The study reveals that Bhutan,like its Himalayan neighbours,prioritizes adaptation over mitigation due to immediate climate threats,despite its carbonnegative status.However,Bhutan faces unique pressures in upholding its dual commitments—maintaining 60%forest cover and carbon neutrality—amid competing development needs.While its Gross National Happiness(GNH)framework provides a holistic governance model,the analysis uncovers systemic barriers,including limited financing,transboundary climate risks,and uneven policy execution,which mirror regional struggles.The paper contributes to climate governance discourse by highlighting the risks of symbolic environmental pledges without robust implementation mechanisms,particularly for vulnerable mountain nations.It calls for integrated policies that bridge mitigation and adaptation,stronger regional cooperation,and equitable climate financing.The findings are relevant for policymakers in the Himalayas and international stakeholders advocating context-specific,justiceoriented climate strategies.展开更多
High-elevation forests are among the most climate-sensitive ecosystems,and understanding their growth responses is crucial for predicting ecological consequences under future climate change.The climate sensitivity of ...High-elevation forests are among the most climate-sensitive ecosystems,and understanding their growth responses is crucial for predicting ecological consequences under future climate change.The climate sensitivity of tree species in the Hyrcanian forests in the Alborz Mountains of northern Iran,one of the southernmost temperate deciduous forests in the Northern Hemisphere,remains largely unexplored.In particular,Acer hyrcanum Fisch.&C.A.Mey.,growing mainly at high elevations,has not yet been studied in detail in dendroclimatology.Here,we present the first tree-ring chronology of Acer hyrcanum spanning 1814-2022 and analyze its growth-climate relationships to assess how this species reflects climatic sensitivity at the upper forest limit.The results reveal significant positive correlations between tree-ring width and temperature,particularly from May to September,suggesting that warmer growing-season temperatures enhance tree growth.In contrast,tree-ring width showed negative correlations with precipitation and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index,especially from January to May,and with cloud cover from March to May.These findings suggest that moisture availability does not limit radial growth in Acer hyrcanum and that the precipitation and water surplus signals may instead reflect the influence of cloud cover,which reduces sunlight availability during critical early-season months.This study contributes to the growing body of dendroclimatic research in the Alborz Mountains and,more broadly,on Acer species,particularly in high-elevation ecosystems where such studies are scarce.It also provides valuable insights into how Acer hyrcanum may respond to future climate change.展开更多
Global climate change is a pressing environmental challenge.Climate-induced migration highlights the severe impact of unsuitable climatic conditions.However,current research methods are limited in their ability to ass...Global climate change is a pressing environmental challenge.Climate-induced migration highlights the severe impact of unsuitable climatic conditions.However,current research methods are limited in their ability to assess climate suitability for residents in high-altitude areas.In this study,we assess climate suitability across the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 1979 to 2018 and project future changes using four different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)climate scenarios by constructing the Climate Suitability Index(CSI).The findings reveal a notable increase in CSI from 0.32 to 0.36 from 1979 to 2018.The primary factors contributing to the increased climate suitability are increasing annual mean precipitation(61.42%)and decreasing solar radiation(17.22%)from 1979 to 2018.Furthermore,the study forecasts a continued enhancement of climate suitability across all SSP scenarios,with SSP585 demonstrating the greatest improvement,followed by SSP370,SSP245,and SSP126.Although low oxygen levels at high altitudes remain a challenge,the overall improvement in climate suitability offers hope for people living at high altitudes to cope with climate change.展开更多
Research on tourism climate comfort is undergoing a paradigm shift from classic static assessment to intelligent dynamic sensing.Early models(such as temperature-humidity index and tourism climate index)established ba...Research on tourism climate comfort is undergoing a paradigm shift from classic static assessment to intelligent dynamic sensing.Early models(such as temperature-humidity index and tourism climate index)established based on data of meteorological stations laid the foundation for the discipline but were unable to meet the dynamic demands of climate change,spatial heterogeneity,and individual experience.Global climate change is reshaping the landscape of tourism comfort and driving the assessment to shift towards future risk prediction.Downscaling technology becomes the key to connecting global scenarios and local assessments.Remote sensing and Internet of Things technologies have constructed a"sky-ground"collaborative sensing network,achieving a revolution in data acquisition.Artificial intelligence and big data analysis serve as the intelligent core to drive research from description to prediction.The new paradigm has significant potential in improving assessment accuracy and timeliness,but also faces challenges such as data integration,model interpretability,interdisciplinary integration,and ethical privacy.In the future,it is needed to develop interpretable AI,construct climate digital twins,and promote full-chain coupling research.This transformation is not merely an upgrade of methods,but a fundamental shift in the study of philosophy from an"environment-centered"perspective to an"experience-centered"one,providing key scientific support for sustainable tourism.展开更多
Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives ...Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.展开更多
This study takes"ocean heat waves"as a typical case to study the scientific definition,driving mechanisms,multi-dimensional impacts,and response strategies of extreme climate events.The definition of extreme...This study takes"ocean heat waves"as a typical case to study the scientific definition,driving mechanisms,multi-dimensional impacts,and response strategies of extreme climate events.The definition of extreme events requires a comprehensive consideration of statistical thresholds and social impacts.It is mainly driven by global warming caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases,and is also influenced by the interaction of natural variations such as ENSO.Extreme events cause systematic and cascading impacts on human health,infrastructure,agricultural economy,and ecosystems(especially marine ecosystems).Advanced technologies such as satellite remote sensing,climate models,and artificial intelligence have significantly enhanced their monitoring and prediction capabilities.However,effective responses still require a parallel strategy of mitigation and adaptation,and international cooperation is strengthened through the framework of the Paris Agreement.展开更多
Accurately assessing the relationship between tree growth and climatic factors is of great importance in dendrochronology.This study evaluated the consistency between alternative climate datasets(including station and...Accurately assessing the relationship between tree growth and climatic factors is of great importance in dendrochronology.This study evaluated the consistency between alternative climate datasets(including station and gridded data)and actual climate data(fixed-point observations near the sampling sites),in northeastern China’s warm temperate zone and analyzed differences in their correlations with tree-ring width index.The results were:(1)Gridded temperature data,as well as precipitation and relative humidity data from the Huailai meteorological station,was more consistent with the actual climate data;in contrast,gridded soil moisture content data showed significant discrepancies.(2)Horizontal distance had a greater impact on the representativeness of actual climate conditions than vertical elevation differences.(3)Differences in consistency between alternative and actual climate data also affected their correlations with tree-ring width indices.In some growing season months,correlation coefficients,both in magnitude and sign,differed significantly from those based on actual data.The selection of different alternative climate datasets can lead to biased results in assessing forest responses to climate change,which is detrimental to the management of forest ecosystems in harsh environments.Therefore,the scientific and rational selection of alternative climate data is essential for dendroecological and climatological research.展开更多
The Global Governance Initiative(GGI)is another important public good that China has provided for the international community,following the Global Development Initiative,the Global Security Initiative,and the Global C...The Global Governance Initiative(GGI)is another important public good that China has provided for the international community,following the Global Development Initiative,the Global Security Initiative,and the Global Civilization Initiative.As a sub-field of global governance,global climate governance has hitherto progressed slowly,exhibiting growing deficits in discourse,institutions,and actions.The governance paradigm is in desperate need of revamping,especially under the guidance of an innovative initiative.At the conceptual level,the GGI has gone beyond the Western governance discourse by outlining the institutional starting point,foundations of legitimacy,action orientations,ultimate goals,and practical support for good global climate governance through its five core concepts.At the practical level,the spillover effects of China's achievements in climate governance and the collective rise of the Global South have created favorable conditions,domestically and internationally,for the GGI to lead the way forward toward good global climate governance.However,the fact that the international political and economic order remains unjust and inequitable indicates that this will inevitably be a long-term process replete with rivalries in the pursuit of breakthroughs.展开更多
Northern Xinjiang,an arid inland area in Northwest China,is highly vulnerable to air pollution under intensifying climate extremes,yet the relative roles of temperature and precipitation extremes remain insufficiently...Northern Xinjiang,an arid inland area in Northwest China,is highly vulnerable to air pollution under intensifying climate extremes,yet the relative roles of temperature and precipitation extremes remain insufficiently understood.Using multi-source datasets for 2000-2023,including China High Air Pollutants(CHAP)particulate matter 2.5(PM_(2.5)),particulate matter 10(PM_(10)),and ozone(O3)products and Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices(ETCCDI)extreme climate indices derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Reanalysis v5(ERA5)-Land,together with trend detection,change-point analysis,pixel-wise Pearson correlation,and random forest(RF)modeling,we investigated the spatiotemporal evolution of major air pollutants and their responses to meteorological extremes in northern Xinjiang.PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) generally declined from 2000 to 2023,whereas O3 increased,indicating a shift from particulate-dominated pollution toward stronger photochemical pollution.Interannually,PM_(2.5) showed a rise-decline pattern,PM_(10) exhibited a rise-decline-rebound pattern,and O3 increased markedly after 2015.Clear seasonal contrasts were observed,with PM_(2.5) peaking in winter,PM_(10) in spring,and O3 in summer.During the same period,northern Xinjiang exhibited a pronounced warming-drying tendency,characterized by increasing heat-related indices,decreasing cold-related indices,reduced precipitation totals and heavy-rainfall frequency,and increasing consecutive dry days.Pollutant-climate relationships showed strong spatial heterogeneity and pollutant-specific contrasts across the Urumqi-Changji-Shihezi corridor,the Ili River Valley,and the Junggar Basin.PM_(2.5) responses to precipitation shifted from predominantly positive to negative,PM_(10) showed mainly negative associations with precipitation extremes,and O3 responses varied by subregion.Temperature-related extremes generally explained more pollutant variability than precipitation-related extremes,with PM_(2.5) showing the highest sensitivity.These findings highlight the coupled influences of warming,drying,emissions,and terrain-controlled transport on air quality and support region-specific,multi-pollutant strategies for coordinated climate adaptation and air pollution control in northern Xinjiang.展开更多
We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other ...We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other countries will require the rapid construction of communities capable of supporting them, their families, businesses and farms. However, different political-economic conditions are found across the areas which can serve as locations for these Climate Change Haven Communities. We develop funding and construction strategies for the United States (free-market capitalism), France and Spain (European Union supported economies), and Taiwan region (state-directed economy). The proposals for the Taiwan region should also be applicable to the rest of China.展开更多
The accelerating impacts of climate change,rising temperatures,extreme weather events,and biodiversity loss underscore the urgent need for widespread public awareness.This research explores why climate change awarenes...The accelerating impacts of climate change,rising temperatures,extreme weather events,and biodiversity loss underscore the urgent need for widespread public awareness.This research explores why climate change awareness is not just beneficial but essential for effective environmental stewardship and the long-term health of our planet.The research proffers informed communities,encouraging sustainable practices,and driving policy advocacy,awareness serves as a model for collective action.This call to consciousness challenges individuals,institutions,and nations to recognize their role in shaping a resilient,sustainable future for the Earth.Methodology adopted in this research is a mixed-method design,involving both qualitative and quasi-experimental designs,which engages the use of focus group discussions and oral interviews to explore deeper insights into perceptions,biodiversity loss consciousness,and environmental depletion challenges.Also,applicable under the qualitative method is the secondary data collection mode,namely,reports from IPCC,government policy documents,and existing literature related to the context of the research.The empirical and scientific data analysis was presented from the data collected and was coded and subjected to analysis using a paired samples t-test.The study is grounded on the theory of“Value-Belief-Norm”(VBN)developed by Stern et al.The VBN theory posits that individuals are more likely to engage in pro-environmental behaviour when their values(especially biosphere and altruistic),beliefs(about environmental consequences),and norms(personal responsibility to act)align.The findings of this study underscore the critical role of climate change awareness in fostering environmental and earth stewardship.The paper recommends that Governments of the country(State and federal)should take urgent steps in sensitising the general public on the causes and impact of climate change.展开更多
Climate change is causing extensive and quantifiable surface deformation by moving mass in the cryosphere,hydrosphere,atmosphere,and oceans.These deformations can give a great deal of information on the dynamics of th...Climate change is causing extensive and quantifiable surface deformation by moving mass in the cryosphere,hydrosphere,atmosphere,and oceans.These deformations can give a great deal of information on the dynamics of the Earth system and interactions between climate processes and solid Earth processes.Global Navigation Satellite Systems(GNSS),Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar(InSAR),satellite gravimetry,and other supplementary techniques have become important tools to be used to monitor and quantify these deformations.The insight of this review is the understanding of the mechanisms that cause deformation on the surface due to climate change,the strengths and weaknesses of the modern geodetic observation methods,and the way in which these geodetic observations are reconciled with the Earth’s response models and climate simulations.Polar,alpine,hydrologically sensitive,and coastal case studies demonstrate that geodesy can be used globally in climate change studies.Although there has been a lot of improvement,there have been many problems in signal separation,data coverage,and uncertainties in models,but new emerging technologies are promising solutions.A combined climate/geodetic observing system will be critical in enhancing long-term monitoring and in further developing the knowledge on how the Earth responds to climate change.展开更多
Climate change is altering vegetation phenology,differentially affecting food quality and availability for the gosling development(and therefore fitness)of migratory herbivores,especially those experiencing range cont...Climate change is altering vegetation phenology,differentially affecting food quality and availability for the gosling development(and therefore fitness)of migratory herbivores,especially those experiencing range contraction and fragmentation.By quantifying the climate-vegetation nexus for two waterbird species of contrasting conservation status,we assessed the differential implications of climate change in semi-arid landscapes for gosling development windows in different parts of their mid-latitude breeding ranges.We defined breeding ranges using telemetry data from 663 summering tracks of tagged Swan Geese(Anser cygnoides)and Greylag Geese(A.anser)breeding across the Mongolian Plateau.Within these areas,we systematically analyzed spatiotemporal variations in vegetation phenology based on MODIS NDVI datasets from 2000 to 2024 and their response to climate factors.Combining the above data,we demonstrated synchrony between goose breeding phenology and vegetation phenological indices:gosling hatching coincided with the start of growing season(SOS),autumn migration initiation with the end of growing season(EOS).We determined temporal and geographical variation in vegetation SOS,EOS and the length of growing season(LOS=EOS-SOS)as a proxy for gosling development windows across the Mongolian Plateau.Mean LOS was 107±13 days,generally sufficient for gosling development(c.113 days),but showed spatial heterogeneity,increasing in the west but shortening in the east of Mongolian Plateau.SOS was delayed with higher land surface temperature and lower precipitation/aridity in central/eastern Mongolian Plateau,but advanced in the west.Elevation of these three climatic factors delayed EOS across Mongolian Plateau.Climate warming and hydric stress may trigger synergistic SOS-delay and EOS-advance effects in the central and eastern Mongolian Plateau,increasing differential phenological mismatch risks to offspring fitness,thereby potentially affecting population growth rates and distributions.展开更多
Land degradation,coupled with climate change impacts,poses serious threats to global land health and human well-being.Participatory scenario planning(PSP)has become a key tool for exploring these interconnected challe...Land degradation,coupled with climate change impacts,poses serious threats to global land health and human well-being.Participatory scenario planning(PSP)has become a key tool for exploring these interconnected challenges;however,its progress and effectiveness remain underexplored.This study reviews 46 papers,using PRISMA guidelines,to investigate how PSP supports sustainable land management and climate resilience.We document how PSP applications have evolved from a biophysical focus to one addressing broader environmental,societal,and economic challenges.Disparities in how participants engage across PSP phases document the need for more equitable and meaningful participation.Clustering future scenarios reveals the complex interconnections among ecological,social,and economic factors underpinning land management and climate resilience,underscoring the need for inclusive and integrated strategies.From the emerging trends,we identify opportunities to advance PSP implementation,including early engagement of decision-makers,balanced representation and equitable power dynamics,meaningful participation,cross-disciplinary collaboration,integration of human-nature relationships,and regular revision of future pathways.Overall,our review highlights PSP’s potential to co-create inclusive,equitable scenarios and actionable pathways towards sustainable and resilient land use futures.展开更多
Climate change poses a profound threat to mountain agro-ecosystems,particularly in the Himalayan region of West Bengal,India,by disrupting precipitation patterns,increasing temperature variability,and intensifying ext...Climate change poses a profound threat to mountain agro-ecosystems,particularly in the Himalayan region of West Bengal,India,by disrupting precipitation patterns,increasing temperature variability,and intensifying extreme weather events.Despite growing evidence of climate change impacts,there remains a critical research gap in understanding how socioeconomic factors drive farmers' adaptation strategies to climate change in this vulnerable region.This study examines how farmers in the Himalayan region of West Bengal,India,perceived and responded to the growing impacts of climate change on mountain agro-ecosystems.Drawing on cross-sectional data from 370 farm households selected through multistage sampling,the research employs a combination of analytical tools,including the severity index(SI) to assess farmers' perceptions to climate change,the adaptation index(AI) to evaluate adaptive responses,the Garrett's ranking technique to prioritize constraints,and the ordered logistic regression to identify key socioeconomic drivers of adaptation.Findings reveal a high level of climate awareness among farmers,particularly regarding the increase in weather extremes(SI=74.87%),increase in temperature(SI=72.31%),and irregular rainfall patterns and highly erratic rainfall(SI=62.52%).The most commonly adopted strategies include adopting intercropping and mixed cropping systems(AI=0.613),adoption of the integrated farming system model(AI=0.600),and shift towards non-farm employment(AI=0.608),while the adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties and improved irrigation remains limited.Regression analysis highlights that education(regression coefficient=0.38),average landholding size(regression coefficient=1.21),and access to daily weather forecast information(regression coefficient=1.92) significantly promote adaptive behaviour,whereas age(regression coefficient= –0.09) and gender(regression coefficient= –0.76) are negatively associated.Institutional constraints,particularly unavailability of institutional credit,emerge as primary barriers.The study underscores the urgent need for region-specific,inclusive policy frameworks that enhance climate advisory services,support technology dissemination,and empower marginalized groups in the Himalayan region of West Bengal.By fostering informed,equitable,and resilient agricultural systems,these strategies can significantly strengthen the adaptive capacity of mountain farming communities and contribute to sustainable development under a changing climate.展开更多
Precise forecasts of wildfire danger are crucial for proactive fuel management and emergency responses,yet they pose a challenge at the subseasonal scale due to limitations in prediction capabilities and a gap between...Precise forecasts of wildfire danger are crucial for proactive fuel management and emergency responses,yet they pose a challenge at the subseasonal scale due to limitations in prediction capabilities and a gap between forecast outputs and the needs of decision-makers.This study introduces an innovative hybrid modeling framework that integrates artificial intelligence(AI)with climate dynamic prediction systems to accurately forecast High Fire-Danger Days(HFDDs)for the following month.These HFDDs are derived from historical satellite fire data and the optimum fire danger index,with a particular focus on Southwest China as a case study.The AI module,based on the ResNet-18 neural network model,integrates observational and physically constrained analysis to establish links between HFDDs and optimal predictors of atmospheric circulation from both the concurrent and preceding months.Leveraging climate dynamical forecasting,this hybrid model provides more reliable deterministic predictions for monthly HFDDs than conventional methods that rely solely on terrestrial variables such as precipitation.More importantly,the integration of dynamical ensemble prediction enhances the model’s capability for skillful probabilistic predictions of HFDDs,facilitating the creation of customized fire danger outlooks and emergency action maps tailored to stakeholders’needs.The model’s added economic value was also evaluated,demonstrating its potential to improve decision-making in disaster management and bridge the“last-mile gap”in climate service delivery.This work contributes to the Seamless Prediction and Services for Sustainable Natural and Built Environment(SEPRESS)Program(2025–32),under the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO)International Decade of Sciences for Sustainable Development(2024–33).展开更多
This study investigates climate-and human-induced hydrological changes in the Zavkhan River-Khyargas Lake Basin,a highly sensitive arid and semi-arid region of Central Asia.Using Mann-Kendall,innovative trend analysis...This study investigates climate-and human-induced hydrological changes in the Zavkhan River-Khyargas Lake Basin,a highly sensitive arid and semi-arid region of Central Asia.Using Mann-Kendall,innovative trend analysis,and Sen's slope estimation methods,historical climate trends(1980-2100)were analyzed,while land cover changes represented human impacts.Future projections were simulated using the MIROC model with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)and the Tank model.Results show that during the past 40 years,air temperature significantly increased(Z=3.93^(***)),while precipitation(Z=-1.54^(*))and river flow(Z=-1.73^(*))both declined.The Khyargas Lake water level dropped markedly(Z=-5.57***).Land cover analysis reveals expanded cropland and impervious areas due to human activity.Under the SSP1.26 scenario,which assumes minimal climate change,air temperature is projected to rise by 2.0℃,precipitation by 21.8 mm,and river discharge by 1.61 m^(3)/s between 2000 and 2100.These findings indicate that both global warming and intensified land use have substantially altered hydrological and climatic processes in the basin,highlighting the vulnerability of western Mongolia's water resources to combined climatic and anthropogenic influence.展开更多
Understanding how genetic variation within forest species influences growth responses under climate change is essential for improving the accuracy of forest models and guiding adaptive management strategies.This study...Understanding how genetic variation within forest species influences growth responses under climate change is essential for improving the accuracy of forest models and guiding adaptive management strategies.This study models the dynamics of Italian silver fir(Abies alba)forests under varying climate change scenarios using the forest gap model FORMIND.Focusing on three distinct silver fir provenances(Western Alps,Northern Apennines,and Southern Apennines),the study simulates forest growth in the Tuscan-Emilian Apennine National Park under different representative concentration pathways(RCPs).The individual-based model FORMIND was parameterized and validated with field data for each of the provenances,demonstrating its ability to accurately reproduce key forest metrics and dynamics.Our results reveal significant differences in expected growth patterns,productivity,metabolism,and carbon storage capacity among the silver fir provenances in pure and mixed stands.In the simulations,the Northern Apennines provenance showed higher biomass production(biomass>10%±1%)and carbon uptake(net primary productivity,NPP>8%±1%)at the end of the century compared to the Western Alps provenance in the pure provenance(PP)and no regeneration scenario.Conversely,the Southern Apennines provenance showed higher biomass(biomass>5%–10%)and NPP(>15%–18%)in mixed provenance(MP)and regeneration scenarios.These results show that genetic diversity strongly affects forest growth and resilience to environmental changes.Hence,it should be included as a predictor variable in forest models.The study also demonstrates the resilience of silver fir to climatic stressors,emphasizing its potential as a robust species in multiple forest contexts.The integration of forest provenance data into the FORMIND model represents a significant advancement in forest modelling,enabling more accurate and reliable predictions under climate change scenarios.The study's findings advocate for a greater understanding and consideration of genetic diversity in forest management and conservation strategies,in support of assisted migration strategies aiming to enhance the resilience of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.展开更多
As global climate change intensifies,alpine plants are facing dual pressures of habitat loss and rapid environmental degradation.As one of the world's most biodiverse countries,China's potential shifts in alpi...As global climate change intensifies,alpine plants are facing dual pressures of habitat loss and rapid environmental degradation.As one of the world's most biodiverse countries,China's potential shifts in alpine plant distribution and their profound impact on fragile ecosystems have become a focus of ecological research and conservation efforts,with increasing urgency.Meconopsis,a typical representative of Chinese alpine plants,exhibits diverse adaptability,making it an ideal model for studying how alpine species respond to extreme environmental changes.A lack of comprehensive genus-level analyses may hinder the development of long-term conservation and management strategies.Given the genus's ecological importance,vulnerability,and the risk of trait homogenization in genus-level modeling,there is an urgent need to assess its future distribution patterns,migration trends,and adaptive mechanisms based on habitat classification.In this study,we employed the Maxent model,integrating multidimensional environmental variables,to develop genus-level models and representative habitat-based models(forest,meadows,and periglacial).Results indicate a northwestward expansion and southeastward contraction of suitable habitats under future climate scenarios,with migration patterns in latitude and elevation showing stage-specific characteristics.Key environmental factors varied across models but were mostly associated with seasonal growth traits and microhabitat conditions,highlighting both the universal ecological requirements and niche differentiation within Meconopsis.Based on these findings,we propose a dynamic conservation strategy framework informed by stage-specific responses and habitat differences.Future efforts should focus on incorporating alpine-specific environmental variables and optimizing specimen collection strategies to enhance model performance and support landscape planning and biodiversity conservation.展开更多
Climate warming is significantly altering the distribution of tree species,which holds crucial implications for China’s Larix species as they are important afforestation efforts.Understanding their optimal habitats a...Climate warming is significantly altering the distribution of tree species,which holds crucial implications for China’s Larix species as they are important afforestation efforts.Understanding their optimal habitats and environmental constraints is vital for predicting range shifts and guiding adaptive forest management.Previous studies prioritized changing climate impacts on horizontal range shifts of Larix,neglecting the influence of soil factors and range shift along altitudinal gradients.To address this,we applied an optimized MaxEnt model to assess current and future SSP126/SSP585 scenarios,three-dimensional habitat suitability(latitude,longitude,altitude)for four major Larix species(L.principis-rupprechtii,L.gmelinii,L.kaempferi,L.olgensis),while identifying key environmental drivers.Our results indicate that elevation and extreme moisture conditions universally constrain their distribution.Soil chemistry properties exhibited species-specific influences:cation exchange capacity critically shaped L.principis-rupprechtii and L.gmelinii ranges,whereas exchangeable aluminum determined L.kaempferi and L.olgensis distribution.Under future climate scenarios,habitat areas show divergent trajectories-L.principis-rupprechtii maximum gains 5.1%under SSP126,while L.kaempferi maximum expands 15.1%.Conversely,SSP585 triggered a 3.7% decline for L.gmelinii during the 2040s−2100s,and L.olgensis faces a net reduction to 0.4% by 2100s despite transient gains.Spatially,three species(L.kaempferi,L.gmelinii,L.olgensis)shifted northward,while L.principis-rupprechtii migrated northwest.All species distribution ascended altitudinally reflecting thermal adaptation strategies.These multidimensional insights enable targeted species selection for climate-resilient afforestation and underscore the need for soil-inclusive management planning.展开更多
文摘Climate change is one of the most pressing global challenges and spares no nation.Bhutan,as the only carbon negative country in the world,is no exception and being in the Himalayas–a region warming faster than the global average–further intensifies climate risks.This study explores how Bhutan navigates climate change through the perspectives of 41 policy influencers,including politicians,civil servants,and leaders from nongovernment organisations and the media.The findings are compared with scientific literature from the broader Himalayan region to identify shared vulnerabilities(e.g.,glacial lake outburst floods,water scarcity,and agricultural disruptions)and governance challenges(e.g.,financial constraints,geopolitical pressures,and gaps in policy implementation).The study reveals that Bhutan,like its Himalayan neighbours,prioritizes adaptation over mitigation due to immediate climate threats,despite its carbonnegative status.However,Bhutan faces unique pressures in upholding its dual commitments—maintaining 60%forest cover and carbon neutrality—amid competing development needs.While its Gross National Happiness(GNH)framework provides a holistic governance model,the analysis uncovers systemic barriers,including limited financing,transboundary climate risks,and uneven policy execution,which mirror regional struggles.The paper contributes to climate governance discourse by highlighting the risks of symbolic environmental pledges without robust implementation mechanisms,particularly for vulnerable mountain nations.It calls for integrated policies that bridge mitigation and adaptation,stronger regional cooperation,and equitable climate financing.The findings are relevant for policymakers in the Himalayas and international stakeholders advocating context-specific,justiceoriented climate strategies.
基金supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation(AvH),which provided a research stay for HM(Humboldt-ID number 1222705).
文摘High-elevation forests are among the most climate-sensitive ecosystems,and understanding their growth responses is crucial for predicting ecological consequences under future climate change.The climate sensitivity of tree species in the Hyrcanian forests in the Alborz Mountains of northern Iran,one of the southernmost temperate deciduous forests in the Northern Hemisphere,remains largely unexplored.In particular,Acer hyrcanum Fisch.&C.A.Mey.,growing mainly at high elevations,has not yet been studied in detail in dendroclimatology.Here,we present the first tree-ring chronology of Acer hyrcanum spanning 1814-2022 and analyze its growth-climate relationships to assess how this species reflects climatic sensitivity at the upper forest limit.The results reveal significant positive correlations between tree-ring width and temperature,particularly from May to September,suggesting that warmer growing-season temperatures enhance tree growth.In contrast,tree-ring width showed negative correlations with precipitation and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index,especially from January to May,and with cloud cover from March to May.These findings suggest that moisture availability does not limit radial growth in Acer hyrcanum and that the precipitation and water surplus signals may instead reflect the influence of cloud cover,which reduces sunlight availability during critical early-season months.This study contributes to the growing body of dendroclimatic research in the Alborz Mountains and,more broadly,on Acer species,particularly in high-elevation ecosystems where such studies are scarce.It also provides valuable insights into how Acer hyrcanum may respond to future climate change.
基金funded by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)program(Grant No.2019QZKK0608).
文摘Global climate change is a pressing environmental challenge.Climate-induced migration highlights the severe impact of unsuitable climatic conditions.However,current research methods are limited in their ability to assess climate suitability for residents in high-altitude areas.In this study,we assess climate suitability across the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau from 1979 to 2018 and project future changes using four different Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)climate scenarios by constructing the Climate Suitability Index(CSI).The findings reveal a notable increase in CSI from 0.32 to 0.36 from 1979 to 2018.The primary factors contributing to the increased climate suitability are increasing annual mean precipitation(61.42%)and decreasing solar radiation(17.22%)from 1979 to 2018.Furthermore,the study forecasts a continued enhancement of climate suitability across all SSP scenarios,with SSP585 demonstrating the greatest improvement,followed by SSP370,SSP245,and SSP126.Although low oxygen levels at high altitudes remain a challenge,the overall improvement in climate suitability offers hope for people living at high altitudes to cope with climate change.
基金Supported by the School-level Project of Sichuan Minzu College(XYZB2017ZB).
文摘Research on tourism climate comfort is undergoing a paradigm shift from classic static assessment to intelligent dynamic sensing.Early models(such as temperature-humidity index and tourism climate index)established based on data of meteorological stations laid the foundation for the discipline but were unable to meet the dynamic demands of climate change,spatial heterogeneity,and individual experience.Global climate change is reshaping the landscape of tourism comfort and driving the assessment to shift towards future risk prediction.Downscaling technology becomes the key to connecting global scenarios and local assessments.Remote sensing and Internet of Things technologies have constructed a"sky-ground"collaborative sensing network,achieving a revolution in data acquisition.Artificial intelligence and big data analysis serve as the intelligent core to drive research from description to prediction.The new paradigm has significant potential in improving assessment accuracy and timeliness,but also faces challenges such as data integration,model interpretability,interdisciplinary integration,and ethical privacy.In the future,it is needed to develop interpretable AI,construct climate digital twins,and promote full-chain coupling research.This transformation is not merely an upgrade of methods,but a fundamental shift in the study of philosophy from an"environment-centered"perspective to an"experience-centered"one,providing key scientific support for sustainable tourism.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U2342208)support from NSF/Climate Dynamics Award#2025057。
文摘Predicting monsoon climate is one of the major endeavors in climate science and is becoming increasingly challenging due to global warming. The accuracy of monsoon seasonal predictions significantly impacts the lives of billions who depend on or are affected by monsoons, as it is essential for the water cycle, food security, ecology, disaster prevention, and the economy of monsoon regions. Given the extensive literature on Asian monsoon climate prediction, we limit our focus to reviewing the seasonal prediction and predictability of the Asian Summer Monsoon (ASM). However, much of this review is also relevant to monsoon predictions in other seasons and regions. Over the past two decades, considerable progress has been made in the seasonal forecasting of the ASM, driven by an enhanced understanding of the sources of predictability and the dynamics of seasonal variability, along with advanced development in sophisticated models and technologies. This review centers on advances in understanding the physical foundation for monsoon climate prediction (section 2), significant findings and insights into the primary and regional sources of predictability arising from feedback processes among various climate components (sections 3 and 4), the effects of global warming and external forcings on predictability (section 5), developments in seasonal prediction models and techniques (section 6), the challenges and limitations of monsoon climate prediction (section 7), and emerging research trends with suggestions for future directions (section 8). We hope this review will stimulate creative activities to enhance monsoon climate prediction.
基金Supported by the School-level Project of Sichuan Minzu College(XYZB2017ZB).
文摘This study takes"ocean heat waves"as a typical case to study the scientific definition,driving mechanisms,multi-dimensional impacts,and response strategies of extreme climate events.The definition of extreme events requires a comprehensive consideration of statistical thresholds and social impacts.It is mainly driven by global warming caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases,and is also influenced by the interaction of natural variations such as ENSO.Extreme events cause systematic and cascading impacts on human health,infrastructure,agricultural economy,and ecosystems(especially marine ecosystems).Advanced technologies such as satellite remote sensing,climate models,and artificial intelligence have significantly enhanced their monitoring and prediction capabilities.However,effective responses still require a parallel strategy of mitigation and adaptation,and international cooperation is strengthened through the framework of the Paris Agreement.
基金supported by the International Partnership program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(170GJHZ2023074GC)National Natural Science Foundation of China(42425706 and 42488201)+1 种基金National Key Research and Development Program of China(2024YFF0807902)Beijing Natural Science Foundation(8242041),and China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2025M770353).
文摘Accurately assessing the relationship between tree growth and climatic factors is of great importance in dendrochronology.This study evaluated the consistency between alternative climate datasets(including station and gridded data)and actual climate data(fixed-point observations near the sampling sites),in northeastern China’s warm temperate zone and analyzed differences in their correlations with tree-ring width index.The results were:(1)Gridded temperature data,as well as precipitation and relative humidity data from the Huailai meteorological station,was more consistent with the actual climate data;in contrast,gridded soil moisture content data showed significant discrepancies.(2)Horizontal distance had a greater impact on the representativeness of actual climate conditions than vertical elevation differences.(3)Differences in consistency between alternative and actual climate data also affected their correlations with tree-ring width indices.In some growing season months,correlation coefficients,both in magnitude and sign,differed significantly from those based on actual data.The selection of different alternative climate datasets can lead to biased results in assessing forest responses to climate change,which is detrimental to the management of forest ecosystems in harsh environments.Therefore,the scientific and rational selection of alternative climate data is essential for dendroecological and climatological research.
基金2024 Shaanxi Provincial Social Science Fund Annual Project titled"Research on Chinese Modernization from the Perspective of Overseas Studies on the Communist Party of China"(Project Number:2024B002)a 2024 key project of Xi'an Jiaotong University for studying and expounding Xi Jinping Thought on Culture titled"Research on the World Implications of a New Model for Human Advancement"(Project Number:SKZX2024003)funded by the"Top Young Talents Project"(TZ0275)of Shaanxi Province's second batch of"Special Support Program for High-Level Talents"(Philosophy,Social Sciences,Culture,and Arts).
文摘The Global Governance Initiative(GGI)is another important public good that China has provided for the international community,following the Global Development Initiative,the Global Security Initiative,and the Global Civilization Initiative.As a sub-field of global governance,global climate governance has hitherto progressed slowly,exhibiting growing deficits in discourse,institutions,and actions.The governance paradigm is in desperate need of revamping,especially under the guidance of an innovative initiative.At the conceptual level,the GGI has gone beyond the Western governance discourse by outlining the institutional starting point,foundations of legitimacy,action orientations,ultimate goals,and practical support for good global climate governance through its five core concepts.At the practical level,the spillover effects of China's achievements in climate governance and the collective rise of the Global South have created favorable conditions,domestically and internationally,for the GGI to lead the way forward toward good global climate governance.However,the fact that the international political and economic order remains unjust and inequitable indicates that this will inevitably be a long-term process replete with rivalries in the pursuit of breakthroughs.
基金supported by the Tianshan Talent Training Program of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(2022TSYCLJ0011)the Key Research and Development(R&D)Program of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(2022B03021)the National Key R&D Program of China(2024YFC3713504).
文摘Northern Xinjiang,an arid inland area in Northwest China,is highly vulnerable to air pollution under intensifying climate extremes,yet the relative roles of temperature and precipitation extremes remain insufficiently understood.Using multi-source datasets for 2000-2023,including China High Air Pollutants(CHAP)particulate matter 2.5(PM_(2.5)),particulate matter 10(PM_(10)),and ozone(O3)products and Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices(ETCCDI)extreme climate indices derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)Reanalysis v5(ERA5)-Land,together with trend detection,change-point analysis,pixel-wise Pearson correlation,and random forest(RF)modeling,we investigated the spatiotemporal evolution of major air pollutants and their responses to meteorological extremes in northern Xinjiang.PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) generally declined from 2000 to 2023,whereas O3 increased,indicating a shift from particulate-dominated pollution toward stronger photochemical pollution.Interannually,PM_(2.5) showed a rise-decline pattern,PM_(10) exhibited a rise-decline-rebound pattern,and O3 increased markedly after 2015.Clear seasonal contrasts were observed,with PM_(2.5) peaking in winter,PM_(10) in spring,and O3 in summer.During the same period,northern Xinjiang exhibited a pronounced warming-drying tendency,characterized by increasing heat-related indices,decreasing cold-related indices,reduced precipitation totals and heavy-rainfall frequency,and increasing consecutive dry days.Pollutant-climate relationships showed strong spatial heterogeneity and pollutant-specific contrasts across the Urumqi-Changji-Shihezi corridor,the Ili River Valley,and the Junggar Basin.PM_(2.5) responses to precipitation shifted from predominantly positive to negative,PM_(10) showed mainly negative associations with precipitation extremes,and O3 responses varied by subregion.Temperature-related extremes generally explained more pollutant variability than precipitation-related extremes,with PM_(2.5) showing the highest sensitivity.These findings highlight the coupled influences of warming,drying,emissions,and terrain-controlled transport on air quality and support region-specific,multi-pollutant strategies for coordinated climate adaptation and air pollution control in northern Xinjiang.
文摘We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other countries will require the rapid construction of communities capable of supporting them, their families, businesses and farms. However, different political-economic conditions are found across the areas which can serve as locations for these Climate Change Haven Communities. We develop funding and construction strategies for the United States (free-market capitalism), France and Spain (European Union supported economies), and Taiwan region (state-directed economy). The proposals for the Taiwan region should also be applicable to the rest of China.
文摘The accelerating impacts of climate change,rising temperatures,extreme weather events,and biodiversity loss underscore the urgent need for widespread public awareness.This research explores why climate change awareness is not just beneficial but essential for effective environmental stewardship and the long-term health of our planet.The research proffers informed communities,encouraging sustainable practices,and driving policy advocacy,awareness serves as a model for collective action.This call to consciousness challenges individuals,institutions,and nations to recognize their role in shaping a resilient,sustainable future for the Earth.Methodology adopted in this research is a mixed-method design,involving both qualitative and quasi-experimental designs,which engages the use of focus group discussions and oral interviews to explore deeper insights into perceptions,biodiversity loss consciousness,and environmental depletion challenges.Also,applicable under the qualitative method is the secondary data collection mode,namely,reports from IPCC,government policy documents,and existing literature related to the context of the research.The empirical and scientific data analysis was presented from the data collected and was coded and subjected to analysis using a paired samples t-test.The study is grounded on the theory of“Value-Belief-Norm”(VBN)developed by Stern et al.The VBN theory posits that individuals are more likely to engage in pro-environmental behaviour when their values(especially biosphere and altruistic),beliefs(about environmental consequences),and norms(personal responsibility to act)align.The findings of this study underscore the critical role of climate change awareness in fostering environmental and earth stewardship.The paper recommends that Governments of the country(State and federal)should take urgent steps in sensitising the general public on the causes and impact of climate change.
基金funded by the 2025 Jilin Provincial Earthquake Administration Youth Science and Technology Development Project(JZQ-202503).
文摘Climate change is causing extensive and quantifiable surface deformation by moving mass in the cryosphere,hydrosphere,atmosphere,and oceans.These deformations can give a great deal of information on the dynamics of the Earth system and interactions between climate processes and solid Earth processes.Global Navigation Satellite Systems(GNSS),Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar(InSAR),satellite gravimetry,and other supplementary techniques have become important tools to be used to monitor and quantify these deformations.The insight of this review is the understanding of the mechanisms that cause deformation on the surface due to climate change,the strengths and weaknesses of the modern geodetic observation methods,and the way in which these geodetic observations are reconciled with the Earth’s response models and climate simulations.Polar,alpine,hydrologically sensitive,and coastal case studies demonstrate that geodesy can be used globally in climate change studies.Although there has been a lot of improvement,there have been many problems in signal separation,data coverage,and uncertainties in models,but new emerging technologies are promising solutions.A combined climate/geodetic observing system will be critical in enhancing long-term monitoring and in further developing the knowledge on how the Earth responds to climate change.
基金supported by the JOINT CAS-MPG Research Project(Grant No.HZXM20225001MI)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.W2412056,42271116 and 32100373)the China Biodiversity Observation Networks(Sino BON)。
文摘Climate change is altering vegetation phenology,differentially affecting food quality and availability for the gosling development(and therefore fitness)of migratory herbivores,especially those experiencing range contraction and fragmentation.By quantifying the climate-vegetation nexus for two waterbird species of contrasting conservation status,we assessed the differential implications of climate change in semi-arid landscapes for gosling development windows in different parts of their mid-latitude breeding ranges.We defined breeding ranges using telemetry data from 663 summering tracks of tagged Swan Geese(Anser cygnoides)and Greylag Geese(A.anser)breeding across the Mongolian Plateau.Within these areas,we systematically analyzed spatiotemporal variations in vegetation phenology based on MODIS NDVI datasets from 2000 to 2024 and their response to climate factors.Combining the above data,we demonstrated synchrony between goose breeding phenology and vegetation phenological indices:gosling hatching coincided with the start of growing season(SOS),autumn migration initiation with the end of growing season(EOS).We determined temporal and geographical variation in vegetation SOS,EOS and the length of growing season(LOS=EOS-SOS)as a proxy for gosling development windows across the Mongolian Plateau.Mean LOS was 107±13 days,generally sufficient for gosling development(c.113 days),but showed spatial heterogeneity,increasing in the west but shortening in the east of Mongolian Plateau.SOS was delayed with higher land surface temperature and lower precipitation/aridity in central/eastern Mongolian Plateau,but advanced in the west.Elevation of these three climatic factors delayed EOS across Mongolian Plateau.Climate warming and hydric stress may trigger synergistic SOS-delay and EOS-advance effects in the central and eastern Mongolian Plateau,increasing differential phenological mismatch risks to offspring fitness,thereby potentially affecting population growth rates and distributions.
基金supported by the Royal Thai Government Scholarship in Science and Technologythe Faculty of Environment and Resource Studies, Mahidol University, Thailand (FERS, Mahidol University)
文摘Land degradation,coupled with climate change impacts,poses serious threats to global land health and human well-being.Participatory scenario planning(PSP)has become a key tool for exploring these interconnected challenges;however,its progress and effectiveness remain underexplored.This study reviews 46 papers,using PRISMA guidelines,to investigate how PSP supports sustainable land management and climate resilience.We document how PSP applications have evolved from a biophysical focus to one addressing broader environmental,societal,and economic challenges.Disparities in how participants engage across PSP phases document the need for more equitable and meaningful participation.Clustering future scenarios reveals the complex interconnections among ecological,social,and economic factors underpinning land management and climate resilience,underscoring the need for inclusive and integrated strategies.From the emerging trends,we identify opportunities to advance PSP implementation,including early engagement of decision-makers,balanced representation and equitable power dynamics,meaningful participation,cross-disciplinary collaboration,integration of human-nature relationships,and regular revision of future pathways.Overall,our review highlights PSP’s potential to co-create inclusive,equitable scenarios and actionable pathways towards sustainable and resilient land use futures.
文摘Climate change poses a profound threat to mountain agro-ecosystems,particularly in the Himalayan region of West Bengal,India,by disrupting precipitation patterns,increasing temperature variability,and intensifying extreme weather events.Despite growing evidence of climate change impacts,there remains a critical research gap in understanding how socioeconomic factors drive farmers' adaptation strategies to climate change in this vulnerable region.This study examines how farmers in the Himalayan region of West Bengal,India,perceived and responded to the growing impacts of climate change on mountain agro-ecosystems.Drawing on cross-sectional data from 370 farm households selected through multistage sampling,the research employs a combination of analytical tools,including the severity index(SI) to assess farmers' perceptions to climate change,the adaptation index(AI) to evaluate adaptive responses,the Garrett's ranking technique to prioritize constraints,and the ordered logistic regression to identify key socioeconomic drivers of adaptation.Findings reveal a high level of climate awareness among farmers,particularly regarding the increase in weather extremes(SI=74.87%),increase in temperature(SI=72.31%),and irregular rainfall patterns and highly erratic rainfall(SI=62.52%).The most commonly adopted strategies include adopting intercropping and mixed cropping systems(AI=0.613),adoption of the integrated farming system model(AI=0.600),and shift towards non-farm employment(AI=0.608),while the adoption of climate-resilient crop varieties and improved irrigation remains limited.Regression analysis highlights that education(regression coefficient=0.38),average landholding size(regression coefficient=1.21),and access to daily weather forecast information(regression coefficient=1.92) significantly promote adaptive behaviour,whereas age(regression coefficient= –0.09) and gender(regression coefficient= –0.76) are negatively associated.Institutional constraints,particularly unavailability of institutional credit,emerge as primary barriers.The study underscores the urgent need for region-specific,inclusive policy frameworks that enhance climate advisory services,support technology dissemination,and empower marginalized groups in the Himalayan region of West Bengal.By fostering informed,equitable,and resilient agricultural systems,these strategies can significantly strengthen the adaptive capacity of mountain farming communities and contribute to sustainable development under a changing climate.
基金J.YANG was supported by funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42475022,42261144671)the National Key R&D Program of China(Project No.2024YFC3013100)+2 种基金the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central UniversitiesM.LU was supported by the Otto Poon Centre of Climate Resilience and Sustainability at HKUST and the Hong Kong Research Grant Committee(Project No.16300424)Data processing and storage were supported by the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility”(EarthLab).
文摘Precise forecasts of wildfire danger are crucial for proactive fuel management and emergency responses,yet they pose a challenge at the subseasonal scale due to limitations in prediction capabilities and a gap between forecast outputs and the needs of decision-makers.This study introduces an innovative hybrid modeling framework that integrates artificial intelligence(AI)with climate dynamic prediction systems to accurately forecast High Fire-Danger Days(HFDDs)for the following month.These HFDDs are derived from historical satellite fire data and the optimum fire danger index,with a particular focus on Southwest China as a case study.The AI module,based on the ResNet-18 neural network model,integrates observational and physically constrained analysis to establish links between HFDDs and optimal predictors of atmospheric circulation from both the concurrent and preceding months.Leveraging climate dynamical forecasting,this hybrid model provides more reliable deterministic predictions for monthly HFDDs than conventional methods that rely solely on terrestrial variables such as precipitation.More importantly,the integration of dynamical ensemble prediction enhances the model’s capability for skillful probabilistic predictions of HFDDs,facilitating the creation of customized fire danger outlooks and emergency action maps tailored to stakeholders’needs.The model’s added economic value was also evaluated,demonstrating its potential to improve decision-making in disaster management and bridge the“last-mile gap”in climate service delivery.This work contributes to the Seamless Prediction and Services for Sustainable Natural and Built Environment(SEPRESS)Program(2025–32),under the United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO)International Decade of Sciences for Sustainable Development(2024–33).
基金The National University of Mongolia,No.P2024-4814The Mongolian Science and Technology Foundation,No.CHN-2022/274The‘Chey Institute for Advanced Studies’International Scholar Exchange Fellowship for the Academic Year of 2025-2026。
文摘This study investigates climate-and human-induced hydrological changes in the Zavkhan River-Khyargas Lake Basin,a highly sensitive arid and semi-arid region of Central Asia.Using Mann-Kendall,innovative trend analysis,and Sen's slope estimation methods,historical climate trends(1980-2100)were analyzed,while land cover changes represented human impacts.Future projections were simulated using the MIROC model with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)and the Tank model.Results show that during the past 40 years,air temperature significantly increased(Z=3.93^(***)),while precipitation(Z=-1.54^(*))and river flow(Z=-1.73^(*))both declined.The Khyargas Lake water level dropped markedly(Z=-5.57***).Land cover analysis reveals expanded cropland and impervious areas due to human activity.Under the SSP1.26 scenario,which assumes minimal climate change,air temperature is projected to rise by 2.0℃,precipitation by 21.8 mm,and river discharge by 1.61 m^(3)/s between 2000 and 2100.These findings indicate that both global warming and intensified land use have substantially altered hydrological and climatic processes in the basin,highlighting the vulnerability of western Mongolia's water resources to combined climatic and anthropogenic influence.
基金the University of Milan for funding the“ProForesta”project through the 2020 Research Support Planthe“Ente Parco Nazionale dell'Appennino Tosco-Emiliano”for having financed the project“First urgent measures to promote the adaptation of the silver fir forests of the Tuscan-Emilian Apennine National Park to the effects of climate change”。
文摘Understanding how genetic variation within forest species influences growth responses under climate change is essential for improving the accuracy of forest models and guiding adaptive management strategies.This study models the dynamics of Italian silver fir(Abies alba)forests under varying climate change scenarios using the forest gap model FORMIND.Focusing on three distinct silver fir provenances(Western Alps,Northern Apennines,and Southern Apennines),the study simulates forest growth in the Tuscan-Emilian Apennine National Park under different representative concentration pathways(RCPs).The individual-based model FORMIND was parameterized and validated with field data for each of the provenances,demonstrating its ability to accurately reproduce key forest metrics and dynamics.Our results reveal significant differences in expected growth patterns,productivity,metabolism,and carbon storage capacity among the silver fir provenances in pure and mixed stands.In the simulations,the Northern Apennines provenance showed higher biomass production(biomass>10%±1%)and carbon uptake(net primary productivity,NPP>8%±1%)at the end of the century compared to the Western Alps provenance in the pure provenance(PP)and no regeneration scenario.Conversely,the Southern Apennines provenance showed higher biomass(biomass>5%–10%)and NPP(>15%–18%)in mixed provenance(MP)and regeneration scenarios.These results show that genetic diversity strongly affects forest growth and resilience to environmental changes.Hence,it should be included as a predictor variable in forest models.The study also demonstrates the resilience of silver fir to climatic stressors,emphasizing its potential as a robust species in multiple forest contexts.The integration of forest provenance data into the FORMIND model represents a significant advancement in forest modelling,enabling more accurate and reliable predictions under climate change scenarios.The study's findings advocate for a greater understanding and consideration of genetic diversity in forest management and conservation strategies,in support of assisted migration strategies aiming to enhance the resilience of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.
文摘As global climate change intensifies,alpine plants are facing dual pressures of habitat loss and rapid environmental degradation.As one of the world's most biodiverse countries,China's potential shifts in alpine plant distribution and their profound impact on fragile ecosystems have become a focus of ecological research and conservation efforts,with increasing urgency.Meconopsis,a typical representative of Chinese alpine plants,exhibits diverse adaptability,making it an ideal model for studying how alpine species respond to extreme environmental changes.A lack of comprehensive genus-level analyses may hinder the development of long-term conservation and management strategies.Given the genus's ecological importance,vulnerability,and the risk of trait homogenization in genus-level modeling,there is an urgent need to assess its future distribution patterns,migration trends,and adaptive mechanisms based on habitat classification.In this study,we employed the Maxent model,integrating multidimensional environmental variables,to develop genus-level models and representative habitat-based models(forest,meadows,and periglacial).Results indicate a northwestward expansion and southeastward contraction of suitable habitats under future climate scenarios,with migration patterns in latitude and elevation showing stage-specific characteristics.Key environmental factors varied across models but were mostly associated with seasonal growth traits and microhabitat conditions,highlighting both the universal ecological requirements and niche differentiation within Meconopsis.Based on these findings,we propose a dynamic conservation strategy framework informed by stage-specific responses and habitat differences.Future efforts should focus on incorporating alpine-specific environmental variables and optimizing specimen collection strategies to enhance model performance and support landscape planning and biodiversity conservation.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFD2200501).
文摘Climate warming is significantly altering the distribution of tree species,which holds crucial implications for China’s Larix species as they are important afforestation efforts.Understanding their optimal habitats and environmental constraints is vital for predicting range shifts and guiding adaptive forest management.Previous studies prioritized changing climate impacts on horizontal range shifts of Larix,neglecting the influence of soil factors and range shift along altitudinal gradients.To address this,we applied an optimized MaxEnt model to assess current and future SSP126/SSP585 scenarios,three-dimensional habitat suitability(latitude,longitude,altitude)for four major Larix species(L.principis-rupprechtii,L.gmelinii,L.kaempferi,L.olgensis),while identifying key environmental drivers.Our results indicate that elevation and extreme moisture conditions universally constrain their distribution.Soil chemistry properties exhibited species-specific influences:cation exchange capacity critically shaped L.principis-rupprechtii and L.gmelinii ranges,whereas exchangeable aluminum determined L.kaempferi and L.olgensis distribution.Under future climate scenarios,habitat areas show divergent trajectories-L.principis-rupprechtii maximum gains 5.1%under SSP126,while L.kaempferi maximum expands 15.1%.Conversely,SSP585 triggered a 3.7% decline for L.gmelinii during the 2040s−2100s,and L.olgensis faces a net reduction to 0.4% by 2100s despite transient gains.Spatially,three species(L.kaempferi,L.gmelinii,L.olgensis)shifted northward,while L.principis-rupprechtii migrated northwest.All species distribution ascended altitudinally reflecting thermal adaptation strategies.These multidimensional insights enable targeted species selection for climate-resilient afforestation and underscore the need for soil-inclusive management planning.
