The ability to predict the anti-interference communications performance of unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)data links is critical for intelligent route planning of UAVs in real combat scenarios.Previous research in this a...The ability to predict the anti-interference communications performance of unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)data links is critical for intelligent route planning of UAVs in real combat scenarios.Previous research in this area has encountered several limitations:Classifiers exhibit low training efficiency,their precision is notably reduced when dealing with imbalanced samples,and they cannot be applied to the condition where the UAV’s flight altitude and the antenna bearing vary.This paper proposes the sequential Latin hypercube sampling(SLHS)-support vector machine(SVM)-AdaBoost algorithm,which enhances the training efficiency of the base classifier and circumvents local optima during the search process through SLHS optimization.Additionally,it mitigates the bottleneck of sample imbalance by adjusting the sample weight distribution using the AdaBoost algorithm.Through comparison,the modeling efficiency,prediction accuracy on the test set,and macro-averaged values of precision,recall,and F1-score for SLHS-SVM-AdaBoost are improved by 22.7%,5.7%,36.0%,25.0%,and 34.2%,respectively,compared with Grid-SVM.Additionally,these values are improved by 22.2%,2.1%,11.3%,2.8%,and 7.4%,respectively,compared with particle swarm optimization(PSO)-SVM-AdaBoost.Combining Latin hypercube sampling with the SLHS-SVM-AdaBoost algorithm,the classification prediction model of anti-interference performance of UAV data links,which took factors like three-dimensional position of UAV and antenna bearing into consideration,is established and used to assess the safety of the classical flying path and optimize the flying route.It was found that the risk of loss of communications could not be completely avoided by adjusting the flying altitude based on the classical path,whereas intelligent path planning based on the classification prediction model of anti-interference performance can realize complete avoidance of being interfered meanwhile reducing the route length by at least 2.3%,thus benefiting both safety and operation efficiency.展开更多
Due to the complexity of underground engineering geology,the tunnel boring machine(TBM)usually shows poor adaptability to the surrounding rock mass,leading to machine jamming and geological hazards.For the TBM project...Due to the complexity of underground engineering geology,the tunnel boring machine(TBM)usually shows poor adaptability to the surrounding rock mass,leading to machine jamming and geological hazards.For the TBM project of Lanzhou Water Source Construction,this study proposed a neural network called PCA-GRU,which combines principal component analysis(PCA)with gated recurrent unit(GRU)to improve the accuracy of predicting rock mass classification in TBM tunneling.The input variables from the PCA dimension reduction of nine parameters in the sample data set were utilized for establishing the PCA-GRU model.Subsequently,in order to speed up the response time of surrounding rock mass classification predictions,the PCA-GRU model was optimized.Finally,the prediction results obtained by the PCA-GRU model were compared with those of four other models and further examined using random sampling analysis.As indicated by the results,the PCA-GRU model can predict the rock mass classification in TBM tunneling rapidly,requiring about 20 s to run.It performs better than the previous four models in predicting the rock mass classification,with accuracy A,macro precision MP,and macro recall MR being 0.9667,0.963,and 0.9763,respectively.In Class II,III,and IV rock mass prediction,the PCA-GRU model demonstrates better precision P and recall R owing to the dimension reduction technique.The random sampling analysis indicates that the PCA-GRU model shows stronger generalization,making it more appropriate in situations where the distribution of various rock mass classes and lithologies change in percentage.展开更多
Machine learning methods are effective tools for improving short-term climate prediction.However,commonly used methods often carry out classification and regression prediction modeling separately and independently.Suc...Machine learning methods are effective tools for improving short-term climate prediction.However,commonly used methods often carry out classification and regression prediction modeling separately and independently.Such a single modeling approach may obtain inconsistent prediction results in classification and regression and thus may not meet the needs of practical applications well.To address this issue,this study proposes a selective Naive Bayes ensemble model(SENB-EM)by introducing causal effect and voting strategy on Naive Bayes.The new model can not only screen effective predictors but also perform classification and regression prediction simultaneously.After being applied to the area prediction of summer western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)from 2008 to 2021,it is found that the accuracy classification score(a metric to assess the overall classification prediction accuracy)and the time correlation coefficient(TCC)of SENB-EM can reach 1.0 and 0.81,respectively.After integrating the results of different models[including multiple linear regression ensemble model(MLR-EM),SENB-EM,and Chinese Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System(CMME)used by National Climate Center(NCC)]for 2017-2021,the TCC of the ensemble results of SENB-EM and CMME can reach 0.92(the highest result among them).This indicates that the prediction results of the summer WNPSH area provided by SENB-EM have a high reference value for the real-time prediction.It is worth noting that,except for the numerical prediction results,the SENB-EM model can also give the range of numerical prediction intervals and predictions for anomalous degrees of the WNPSH area,thus providing more reference information for meteorological forecasters.Overall,as a new hybrid machine learning model,the SENB-EM has a good prediction ability;the approach of performing classification prediction and regression prediction simultaneously through integration is informative to short-term climate prediction.展开更多
In the era of advanced machine learning techniques,the development of accurate predictive models for complex medical conditions,such as thyroid cancer,has shown remarkable progress.Accurate predictivemodels for thyroi...In the era of advanced machine learning techniques,the development of accurate predictive models for complex medical conditions,such as thyroid cancer,has shown remarkable progress.Accurate predictivemodels for thyroid cancer enhance early detection,improve resource allocation,and reduce overtreatment.However,the widespread adoption of these models in clinical practice demands predictive performance along with interpretability and transparency.This paper proposes a novel association-rule based feature-integratedmachine learning model which shows better classification and prediction accuracy than present state-of-the-artmodels.Our study also focuses on the application of SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)values as a powerful tool for explaining thyroid cancer prediction models.In the proposed method,the association-rule based feature integration framework identifies frequently occurring attribute combinations in the dataset.The original dataset is used in trainingmachine learning models,and further used in generating SHAP values fromthesemodels.In the next phase,the dataset is integrated with the dominant feature sets identified through association-rule based analysis.This new integrated dataset is used in re-training the machine learning models.The new SHAP values generated from these models help in validating the contributions of feature sets in predicting malignancy.The conventional machine learning models lack interpretability,which can hinder their integration into clinical decision-making systems.In this study,the SHAP values are introduced along with association-rule based feature integration as a comprehensive framework for understanding the contributions of feature sets inmodelling the predictions.The study discusses the importance of reliable predictive models for early diagnosis of thyroid cancer,and a validation framework of explainability.The proposed model shows an accuracy of 93.48%.Performance metrics such as precision,recall,F1-score,and the area under the receiver operating characteristic(AUROC)are also higher than the baseline models.The results of the proposed model help us identify the dominant feature sets that impact thyroid cancer classification and prediction.The features{calcification}and{shape}consistently emerged as the top-ranked features associated with thyroid malignancy,in both association-rule based interestingnessmetric values and SHAPmethods.The paper highlights the potential of the rule-based integrated models with SHAP in bridging the gap between the machine learning predictions and the interpretability of this prediction which is required for real-world medical applications.展开更多
Crowdfunding is a concept that emerged due to difficulties in raising funds for community business projects,social activities,small and micro enterprises,and startups.However,the success or failure of crowdfunding pro...Crowdfunding is a concept that emerged due to difficulties in raising funds for community business projects,social activities,small and micro enterprises,and startups.However,the success or failure of crowdfunding projects is often full of uncertainty.Therefore,predicting whether a crowdfunding project can succeed has become a question worthy of in-depth research.This article takes the crowdfunding website platform Kickstarter as an example and uses machine learning methods to construct an effective crowdfunding project status prediction model.This study aims to compare the performance of different machine learning algorithms in predicting crowdfunding results,while identifying the main factors that affect crowdfunding results and their relative importance.The dataset used in this study includes data from all projects published on Kickstarter between January 2017 and January 2018.This study used six classic classification algorithms to predict the status of crowdfunding activities,and calculated the accuracy of each classification model.The results showed that the accuracy of all six models was close to 1,indicating that they could effectively predict the success or failure of crowdfunding projects.However,the Gaussian Naive Bayes model had slightly lower accuracy than the other five models.Furthermore,the research results indicate that in successful crowdfunding projects,factors such as crowdfunding goals,funds raised,and the number of supporters are more crucial influencing indicators than others.展开更多
文摘The ability to predict the anti-interference communications performance of unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV)data links is critical for intelligent route planning of UAVs in real combat scenarios.Previous research in this area has encountered several limitations:Classifiers exhibit low training efficiency,their precision is notably reduced when dealing with imbalanced samples,and they cannot be applied to the condition where the UAV’s flight altitude and the antenna bearing vary.This paper proposes the sequential Latin hypercube sampling(SLHS)-support vector machine(SVM)-AdaBoost algorithm,which enhances the training efficiency of the base classifier and circumvents local optima during the search process through SLHS optimization.Additionally,it mitigates the bottleneck of sample imbalance by adjusting the sample weight distribution using the AdaBoost algorithm.Through comparison,the modeling efficiency,prediction accuracy on the test set,and macro-averaged values of precision,recall,and F1-score for SLHS-SVM-AdaBoost are improved by 22.7%,5.7%,36.0%,25.0%,and 34.2%,respectively,compared with Grid-SVM.Additionally,these values are improved by 22.2%,2.1%,11.3%,2.8%,and 7.4%,respectively,compared with particle swarm optimization(PSO)-SVM-AdaBoost.Combining Latin hypercube sampling with the SLHS-SVM-AdaBoost algorithm,the classification prediction model of anti-interference performance of UAV data links,which took factors like three-dimensional position of UAV and antenna bearing into consideration,is established and used to assess the safety of the classical flying path and optimize the flying route.It was found that the risk of loss of communications could not be completely avoided by adjusting the flying altitude based on the classical path,whereas intelligent path planning based on the classification prediction model of anti-interference performance can realize complete avoidance of being interfered meanwhile reducing the route length by at least 2.3%,thus benefiting both safety and operation efficiency.
基金State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Hydraulic Engineering of Tsinghua University,Grant/Award Number:2019-KY-03Key Technology of Intelligent Construction of Urban Underground Space of North China University of Technology,Grant/Award Number:110051360022XN108-19+3 种基金Research Start-up Fund Project of North China University of Technology,Grant/Award Number:110051360002Yujie Project of North China University of Technology,Grant/Award Number:216051360020XN199/006National Natural Science Foundation of China,Grant/Award Numbers:51522903,51774184National Key R&D Program of China,Grant/Award Numbers:2018YFC1504801,2018YFC1504902。
文摘Due to the complexity of underground engineering geology,the tunnel boring machine(TBM)usually shows poor adaptability to the surrounding rock mass,leading to machine jamming and geological hazards.For the TBM project of Lanzhou Water Source Construction,this study proposed a neural network called PCA-GRU,which combines principal component analysis(PCA)with gated recurrent unit(GRU)to improve the accuracy of predicting rock mass classification in TBM tunneling.The input variables from the PCA dimension reduction of nine parameters in the sample data set were utilized for establishing the PCA-GRU model.Subsequently,in order to speed up the response time of surrounding rock mass classification predictions,the PCA-GRU model was optimized.Finally,the prediction results obtained by the PCA-GRU model were compared with those of four other models and further examined using random sampling analysis.As indicated by the results,the PCA-GRU model can predict the rock mass classification in TBM tunneling rapidly,requiring about 20 s to run.It performs better than the previous four models in predicting the rock mass classification,with accuracy A,macro precision MP,and macro recall MR being 0.9667,0.963,and 0.9763,respectively.In Class II,III,and IV rock mass prediction,the PCA-GRU model demonstrates better precision P and recall R owing to the dimension reduction technique.The random sampling analysis indicates that the PCA-GRU model shows stronger generalization,making it more appropriate in situations where the distribution of various rock mass classes and lithologies change in percentage.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42130610,41975076,and 42175067)National Key Research and Development Program of China (2019YFA0607104)。
文摘Machine learning methods are effective tools for improving short-term climate prediction.However,commonly used methods often carry out classification and regression prediction modeling separately and independently.Such a single modeling approach may obtain inconsistent prediction results in classification and regression and thus may not meet the needs of practical applications well.To address this issue,this study proposes a selective Naive Bayes ensemble model(SENB-EM)by introducing causal effect and voting strategy on Naive Bayes.The new model can not only screen effective predictors but also perform classification and regression prediction simultaneously.After being applied to the area prediction of summer western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)from 2008 to 2021,it is found that the accuracy classification score(a metric to assess the overall classification prediction accuracy)and the time correlation coefficient(TCC)of SENB-EM can reach 1.0 and 0.81,respectively.After integrating the results of different models[including multiple linear regression ensemble model(MLR-EM),SENB-EM,and Chinese Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System(CMME)used by National Climate Center(NCC)]for 2017-2021,the TCC of the ensemble results of SENB-EM and CMME can reach 0.92(the highest result among them).This indicates that the prediction results of the summer WNPSH area provided by SENB-EM have a high reference value for the real-time prediction.It is worth noting that,except for the numerical prediction results,the SENB-EM model can also give the range of numerical prediction intervals and predictions for anomalous degrees of the WNPSH area,thus providing more reference information for meteorological forecasters.Overall,as a new hybrid machine learning model,the SENB-EM has a good prediction ability;the approach of performing classification prediction and regression prediction simultaneously through integration is informative to short-term climate prediction.
文摘In the era of advanced machine learning techniques,the development of accurate predictive models for complex medical conditions,such as thyroid cancer,has shown remarkable progress.Accurate predictivemodels for thyroid cancer enhance early detection,improve resource allocation,and reduce overtreatment.However,the widespread adoption of these models in clinical practice demands predictive performance along with interpretability and transparency.This paper proposes a novel association-rule based feature-integratedmachine learning model which shows better classification and prediction accuracy than present state-of-the-artmodels.Our study also focuses on the application of SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)values as a powerful tool for explaining thyroid cancer prediction models.In the proposed method,the association-rule based feature integration framework identifies frequently occurring attribute combinations in the dataset.The original dataset is used in trainingmachine learning models,and further used in generating SHAP values fromthesemodels.In the next phase,the dataset is integrated with the dominant feature sets identified through association-rule based analysis.This new integrated dataset is used in re-training the machine learning models.The new SHAP values generated from these models help in validating the contributions of feature sets in predicting malignancy.The conventional machine learning models lack interpretability,which can hinder their integration into clinical decision-making systems.In this study,the SHAP values are introduced along with association-rule based feature integration as a comprehensive framework for understanding the contributions of feature sets inmodelling the predictions.The study discusses the importance of reliable predictive models for early diagnosis of thyroid cancer,and a validation framework of explainability.The proposed model shows an accuracy of 93.48%.Performance metrics such as precision,recall,F1-score,and the area under the receiver operating characteristic(AUROC)are also higher than the baseline models.The results of the proposed model help us identify the dominant feature sets that impact thyroid cancer classification and prediction.The features{calcification}and{shape}consistently emerged as the top-ranked features associated with thyroid malignancy,in both association-rule based interestingnessmetric values and SHAPmethods.The paper highlights the potential of the rule-based integrated models with SHAP in bridging the gap between the machine learning predictions and the interpretability of this prediction which is required for real-world medical applications.
文摘Crowdfunding is a concept that emerged due to difficulties in raising funds for community business projects,social activities,small and micro enterprises,and startups.However,the success or failure of crowdfunding projects is often full of uncertainty.Therefore,predicting whether a crowdfunding project can succeed has become a question worthy of in-depth research.This article takes the crowdfunding website platform Kickstarter as an example and uses machine learning methods to construct an effective crowdfunding project status prediction model.This study aims to compare the performance of different machine learning algorithms in predicting crowdfunding results,while identifying the main factors that affect crowdfunding results and their relative importance.The dataset used in this study includes data from all projects published on Kickstarter between January 2017 and January 2018.This study used six classic classification algorithms to predict the status of crowdfunding activities,and calculated the accuracy of each classification model.The results showed that the accuracy of all six models was close to 1,indicating that they could effectively predict the success or failure of crowdfunding projects.However,the Gaussian Naive Bayes model had slightly lower accuracy than the other five models.Furthermore,the research results indicate that in successful crowdfunding projects,factors such as crowdfunding goals,funds raised,and the number of supporters are more crucial influencing indicators than others.
