Climate warming is significantly altering the distribution of tree species,which holds crucial implications for China’s Larix species as they are important afforestation efforts.Understanding their optimal habitats a...Climate warming is significantly altering the distribution of tree species,which holds crucial implications for China’s Larix species as they are important afforestation efforts.Understanding their optimal habitats and environmental constraints is vital for predicting range shifts and guiding adaptive forest management.Previous studies prioritized changing climate impacts on horizontal range shifts of Larix,neglecting the influence of soil factors and range shift along altitudinal gradients.To address this,we applied an optimized MaxEnt model to assess current and future SSP126/SSP585 scenarios,three-dimensional habitat suitability(latitude,longitude,altitude)for four major Larix species(L.principis-rupprechtii,L.gmelinii,L.kaempferi,L.olgensis),while identifying key environmental drivers.Our results indicate that elevation and extreme moisture conditions universally constrain their distribution.Soil chemistry properties exhibited species-specific influences:cation exchange capacity critically shaped L.principis-rupprechtii and L.gmelinii ranges,whereas exchangeable aluminum determined L.kaempferi and L.olgensis distribution.Under future climate scenarios,habitat areas show divergent trajectories-L.principis-rupprechtii maximum gains 5.1%under SSP126,while L.kaempferi maximum expands 15.1%.Conversely,SSP585 triggered a 3.7% decline for L.gmelinii during the 2040s−2100s,and L.olgensis faces a net reduction to 0.4% by 2100s despite transient gains.Spatially,three species(L.kaempferi,L.gmelinii,L.olgensis)shifted northward,while L.principis-rupprechtii migrated northwest.All species distribution ascended altitudinally reflecting thermal adaptation strategies.These multidimensional insights enable targeted species selection for climate-resilient afforestation and underscore the need for soil-inclusive management planning.展开更多
Tajikistan contains the majority of Central Asia’s glaciers,which cover about 6.00%of the national territory;their rapid shrinkage poses a significant threat to regional water resource security.However,glacier monito...Tajikistan contains the majority of Central Asia’s glaciers,which cover about 6.00%of the national territory;their rapid shrinkage poses a significant threat to regional water resource security.However,glacier monitoring in Tajikistan was interrupted after 1991,creating a substantial gap in understanding the current state and temporal evolution of these glaciers.Based on glacier inventory data,in situ measurements,and published literature,this study examined the present status and recent variations of glaciers in Tajikistan through data integration and validation,literature collation and comparative analysis,and the application of Geographic Information System(GIS)spatial analysis techniques.As of 2023,Tajikistan possesses a total of 11,528 glaciers,encompassing an area of 7624.48(±305.58)km2.Small glaciers dominate in number,whereas large glaciers account for the majority of the total area.Over the past two decades,the glacier count has decreased by 2014,and the total area has decreased by 628.98 km2,corresponding to an average annual reduction rate of 0.33%.Regional shrinkage rates range from 4.10%to 22.28%.Glaciers have undergone accelerated mass loss during the past 20 a;only those on the northeastern Pamir Plateau exhibit a weak positive mass balance.Observations of typical monitored glaciers also reveal intensified melting and retreat,consistent with regional trends.In light of the recent acceleration of glacier shrinkage in Tajikistan,focused measures should be implemented to strengthen glacier monitoring,enhance public awareness of glacier preservation,and promote the sustainable development and utilization of glacier tourism.These findings bridge the knowledge gap regarding the spatiotemporal dynamics of Tajikistan’s glaciers over recent decades and provide essential data support for regional water resource management.展开更多
In the context of the global energy low-carbon transition,phase change energy storage technology becomes a key technology to solve the problem of intermittent renewable energy.Oriented phase change composites(OCPCMs)r...In the context of the global energy low-carbon transition,phase change energy storage technology becomes a key technology to solve the problem of intermittent renewable energy.Oriented phase change composites(OCPCMs)receive widespread attention in practical energy storage applications due to their unique oriented thermally conductive structure,which achieves significant thermal conductivity enhancement in specific directions while retaining the high energy storage capacity of the phase change components.This review systematically summarizes the overall analysis of OCPCMs from synthesis and preparation to application scenarios in recent years.Herein,we introduce the analysis of the heat transfer mechanism of the materials and explore the advantages of the oriented structure in OCPCMs in the heat transfer behavior from a bionic perspective.We then focus on summarizing and generalizing the methods for preparing OCPCMs,giving suggestions for suitable methods according to different scenarios.Besides,we discuss the application of finite element simulation methods to the monitoring of the thermal management behavior of OCPCMs,and look into the potential future application areas of such materials.Finally,it is hoped that this review will provide guidance for the academic community in developing high-performance OCPCMs.展开更多
With the rapid increase in the aging population comes a rise in the incidence and prevalence of neurodegenerative diseases.Therefore,it is critical to understand the molecular changes that occur,which can either cause...With the rapid increase in the aging population comes a rise in the incidence and prevalence of neurodegenerative diseases.Therefore,it is critical to understand the molecular changes that occur,which can either cause disease or make brains resilient.Epigenetic changes are a common suspect and target,not only because they are among the hallmarks of aging,but also because they are flexible and could potentially be reversed.展开更多
We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other ...We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other countries will require the rapid construction of communities capable of supporting them, their families, businesses and farms. However, different political-economic conditions are found across the areas which can serve as locations for these Climate Change Haven Communities. We develop funding and construction strategies for the United States (free-market capitalism), France and Spain (European Union supported economies), and Taiwan region (state-directed economy). The proposals for the Taiwan region should also be applicable to the rest of China.展开更多
To address the challenge of balancing thermal management and thermal runaway mitigation,it is crucial to explore effective methods for enhancing the safety of lithium-ion battery systems.Herein,an innovative hydrated ...To address the challenge of balancing thermal management and thermal runaway mitigation,it is crucial to explore effective methods for enhancing the safety of lithium-ion battery systems.Herein,an innovative hydrated salt composite phase change material(HSCPCM)with dual phase transition temperature zones has been proposed.This HSCPCM,denoted as SDMA10,combines hydrophilic modified expanded graphite,an acrylic emulsion coating,and eutectic hydrated salts to achieve leakage prevention,enhanced thermal stability,cycling stability,and superior phase change behavior.Battery modules incorporating SDMA10 demonstrate significant thermal control capabilities.Specifically,the cylindrical battery modules with SDMA10 can maintain maximum operating temperatures below 55°C at 4 C discharge rate,while prismatic battery modules can keep maximum operating temperatures below 65°C at 2 C discharge rate.In extreme battery overheating conditions simulated using heating plates,SDMA10 effectively suppresses thermal propagation.Even when the central heating plate reaches 300°C,the maximum temperature at the module edge heating plates remains below 85°C.Further,compared to organic composite phase change materials(CPCMs),the battery module with SDMA10 can further reduce the peak thermal runaway temperature by 93°C and delay the thermal runaway trigger time by 689 s,thereby significantly decreasing heat diffusion.Therefore,the designed HSCPCM integrates excellent latent heat storage and thermochemical storage capabilities,providing high thermal energy storage density within the thermal management and thermal runaway threshold temperature range.This research will offer a promising pathway for improving the thermal safety performance of battery packs in electric vehicles and other energy storage systems.展开更多
In this paper,we present a broadband,high-extinction-ratio,nonvolatile 2×2 Mach-Zehnder interfer⁃ometer(MZI)optical switch based on the phase change material Sb_(2)Se_(3).The insertion loss(IL)is 0.84 dB and the ...In this paper,we present a broadband,high-extinction-ratio,nonvolatile 2×2 Mach-Zehnder interfer⁃ometer(MZI)optical switch based on the phase change material Sb_(2)Se_(3).The insertion loss(IL)is 0.84 dB and the extinction ratio(ER)reaches 28.8 dB at the wavelength of 1550 nm.The 3 dB bandwidth is greater than 150 nm.Within the 3 dB bandwidth,the ER is greater than 20.3 dB and 16.3 dB at bar and cross states,respectively.The power consumption for crystallization and amorphization of Sb_(2)Se_(3) is 105.86 nJ and 49 nJ,respectively.The switch holds significant promise for optical interconnects and optical computing applications.展开更多
The accelerating impacts of climate change,rising temperatures,extreme weather events,and biodiversity loss underscore the urgent need for widespread public awareness.This research explores why climate change awarenes...The accelerating impacts of climate change,rising temperatures,extreme weather events,and biodiversity loss underscore the urgent need for widespread public awareness.This research explores why climate change awareness is not just beneficial but essential for effective environmental stewardship and the long-term health of our planet.The research proffers informed communities,encouraging sustainable practices,and driving policy advocacy,awareness serves as a model for collective action.This call to consciousness challenges individuals,institutions,and nations to recognize their role in shaping a resilient,sustainable future for the Earth.Methodology adopted in this research is a mixed-method design,involving both qualitative and quasi-experimental designs,which engages the use of focus group discussions and oral interviews to explore deeper insights into perceptions,biodiversity loss consciousness,and environmental depletion challenges.Also,applicable under the qualitative method is the secondary data collection mode,namely,reports from IPCC,government policy documents,and existing literature related to the context of the research.The empirical and scientific data analysis was presented from the data collected and was coded and subjected to analysis using a paired samples t-test.The study is grounded on the theory of“Value-Belief-Norm”(VBN)developed by Stern et al.The VBN theory posits that individuals are more likely to engage in pro-environmental behaviour when their values(especially biosphere and altruistic),beliefs(about environmental consequences),and norms(personal responsibility to act)align.The findings of this study underscore the critical role of climate change awareness in fostering environmental and earth stewardship.The paper recommends that Governments of the country(State and federal)should take urgent steps in sensitising the general public on the causes and impact of climate change.展开更多
Climate change is one of the most pressing global challenges and spares no nation.Bhutan,as the only carbon negative country in the world,is no exception and being in the Himalayas–a region warming faster than the gl...Climate change is one of the most pressing global challenges and spares no nation.Bhutan,as the only carbon negative country in the world,is no exception and being in the Himalayas–a region warming faster than the global average–further intensifies climate risks.This study explores how Bhutan navigates climate change through the perspectives of 41 policy influencers,including politicians,civil servants,and leaders from nongovernment organisations and the media.The findings are compared with scientific literature from the broader Himalayan region to identify shared vulnerabilities(e.g.,glacial lake outburst floods,water scarcity,and agricultural disruptions)and governance challenges(e.g.,financial constraints,geopolitical pressures,and gaps in policy implementation).The study reveals that Bhutan,like its Himalayan neighbours,prioritizes adaptation over mitigation due to immediate climate threats,despite its carbonnegative status.However,Bhutan faces unique pressures in upholding its dual commitments—maintaining 60%forest cover and carbon neutrality—amid competing development needs.While its Gross National Happiness(GNH)framework provides a holistic governance model,the analysis uncovers systemic barriers,including limited financing,transboundary climate risks,and uneven policy execution,which mirror regional struggles.The paper contributes to climate governance discourse by highlighting the risks of symbolic environmental pledges without robust implementation mechanisms,particularly for vulnerable mountain nations.It calls for integrated policies that bridge mitigation and adaptation,stronger regional cooperation,and equitable climate financing.The findings are relevant for policymakers in the Himalayas and international stakeholders advocating context-specific,justiceoriented climate strategies.展开更多
Climate change is altering vegetation phenology,differentially affecting food quality and availability for the gosling development(and therefore fitness)of migratory herbivores,especially those experiencing range cont...Climate change is altering vegetation phenology,differentially affecting food quality and availability for the gosling development(and therefore fitness)of migratory herbivores,especially those experiencing range contraction and fragmentation.By quantifying the climate-vegetation nexus for two waterbird species of contrasting conservation status,we assessed the differential implications of climate change in semi-arid landscapes for gosling development windows in different parts of their mid-latitude breeding ranges.We defined breeding ranges using telemetry data from 663 summering tracks of tagged Swan Geese(Anser cygnoides)and Greylag Geese(A.anser)breeding across the Mongolian Plateau.Within these areas,we systematically analyzed spatiotemporal variations in vegetation phenology based on MODIS NDVI datasets from 2000 to 2024 and their response to climate factors.Combining the above data,we demonstrated synchrony between goose breeding phenology and vegetation phenological indices:gosling hatching coincided with the start of growing season(SOS),autumn migration initiation with the end of growing season(EOS).We determined temporal and geographical variation in vegetation SOS,EOS and the length of growing season(LOS=EOS-SOS)as a proxy for gosling development windows across the Mongolian Plateau.Mean LOS was 107±13 days,generally sufficient for gosling development(c.113 days),but showed spatial heterogeneity,increasing in the west but shortening in the east of Mongolian Plateau.SOS was delayed with higher land surface temperature and lower precipitation/aridity in central/eastern Mongolian Plateau,but advanced in the west.Elevation of these three climatic factors delayed EOS across Mongolian Plateau.Climate warming and hydric stress may trigger synergistic SOS-delay and EOS-advance effects in the central and eastern Mongolian Plateau,increasing differential phenological mismatch risks to offspring fitness,thereby potentially affecting population growth rates and distributions.展开更多
BACKGROUND Lumbar interbody fusion(LIF)is the primary treatment for lumbar degenerative diseases.Elderly patients are prone to anxiety and depression after undergoing surgery,which affects their postoperative recovery...BACKGROUND Lumbar interbody fusion(LIF)is the primary treatment for lumbar degenerative diseases.Elderly patients are prone to anxiety and depression after undergoing surgery,which affects their postoperative recovery speed and quality of life.Effective prevention of anxiety and depression in elderly patients has become an urgent problem.AIM To investigate the trajectory of anxiety and depression levels in elderly patients after LIF,and the influencing factors.METHODS Random sampling was used to select 239 elderly patients who underwent LIF from January 2020 to December 2024 in Shenzhen Pingle Orthopedic Hospital.General information and surgery-related indices were recorded,and participants completed measures of psychological status,lumbar spine dysfunction,and quality of life.A latent class growth model was used to analyze the post-LIF trajectory of anxiety and depression levels,and unordered multi-categorical logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors.RESULTS Three trajectories of change in anxiety level were identified:Increasing anxiety(n=26,10.88%),decreasing anxiety(n=27,11.30%),and stable anxiety(n=186,77.82%).Likewise,three trajectories of change in depression level were identified:Increasing depression(n=30,12.55%),decreasing depression(n=26,10.88%),and stable depression(n=183,76.57%).Regression analysis showed that having no partner,female sex,elevated Oswestry dysfunction index(ODI)scores,and reduced 36-Item Short Form Health Survey scores all contributed to increased anxiety levels,whereas female sex,postoperative opioid use,and elevated ODI scores all contributed to increased depression levels.CONCLUSION During clinical observation,combining factors to predict anxiety and depression in post-LIF elderly patients enables timely intervention,quickens recovery,and enhances quality of life.展开更多
Accurate and efficient detection of building changes in remote sensing imagery is crucial for urban planning,disaster emergency response,and resource management.However,existing methods face challenges such as spectra...Accurate and efficient detection of building changes in remote sensing imagery is crucial for urban planning,disaster emergency response,and resource management.However,existing methods face challenges such as spectral similarity between buildings and backgrounds,sensor variations,and insufficient computational efficiency.To address these challenges,this paper proposes a novel Multi-scale Efficient Wavelet-based Change Detection Network(MewCDNet),which integrates the advantages of Convolutional Neural Networks and Transformers,balances computational costs,and achieves high-performance building change detection.The network employs EfficientNet-B4 as the backbone for hierarchical feature extraction,integrates multi-level feature maps through a multi-scale fusion strategy,and incorporates two key modules:Cross-temporal Difference Detection(CTDD)and Cross-scale Wavelet Refinement(CSWR).CTDD adopts a dual-branch architecture that combines pixel-wise differencing with semanticaware Euclidean distance weighting to enhance the distinction between true changes and background noise.CSWR integrates Haar-based Discrete Wavelet Transform with multi-head cross-attention mechanisms,enabling cross-scale feature fusion while significantly improving edge localization and suppressing spurious changes.Extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets demonstrate MewCDNet’s superiority over comparison methods:achieving F1 scores of 91.54%on LEVIR,93.70%on WHUCD,and 64.96%on S2Looking for building change detection.Furthermore,MewCDNet exhibits optimal performance on the multi-class⋅SYSU dataset(F1:82.71%),highlighting its exceptional generalization capability.展开更多
Understanding how genetic variation within forest species influences growth responses under climate change is essential for improving the accuracy of forest models and guiding adaptive management strategies.This study...Understanding how genetic variation within forest species influences growth responses under climate change is essential for improving the accuracy of forest models and guiding adaptive management strategies.This study models the dynamics of Italian silver fir(Abies alba)forests under varying climate change scenarios using the forest gap model FORMIND.Focusing on three distinct silver fir provenances(Western Alps,Northern Apennines,and Southern Apennines),the study simulates forest growth in the Tuscan-Emilian Apennine National Park under different representative concentration pathways(RCPs).The individual-based model FORMIND was parameterized and validated with field data for each of the provenances,demonstrating its ability to accurately reproduce key forest metrics and dynamics.Our results reveal significant differences in expected growth patterns,productivity,metabolism,and carbon storage capacity among the silver fir provenances in pure and mixed stands.In the simulations,the Northern Apennines provenance showed higher biomass production(biomass>10%±1%)and carbon uptake(net primary productivity,NPP>8%±1%)at the end of the century compared to the Western Alps provenance in the pure provenance(PP)and no regeneration scenario.Conversely,the Southern Apennines provenance showed higher biomass(biomass>5%–10%)and NPP(>15%–18%)in mixed provenance(MP)and regeneration scenarios.These results show that genetic diversity strongly affects forest growth and resilience to environmental changes.Hence,it should be included as a predictor variable in forest models.The study also demonstrates the resilience of silver fir to climatic stressors,emphasizing its potential as a robust species in multiple forest contexts.The integration of forest provenance data into the FORMIND model represents a significant advancement in forest modelling,enabling more accurate and reliable predictions under climate change scenarios.The study's findings advocate for a greater understanding and consideration of genetic diversity in forest management and conservation strategies,in support of assisted migration strategies aiming to enhance the resilience of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.展开更多
This study investigates climate-and human-induced hydrological changes in the Zavkhan River-Khyargas Lake Basin,a highly sensitive arid and semi-arid region of Central Asia.Using Mann-Kendall,innovative trend analysis...This study investigates climate-and human-induced hydrological changes in the Zavkhan River-Khyargas Lake Basin,a highly sensitive arid and semi-arid region of Central Asia.Using Mann-Kendall,innovative trend analysis,and Sen's slope estimation methods,historical climate trends(1980-2100)were analyzed,while land cover changes represented human impacts.Future projections were simulated using the MIROC model with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)and the Tank model.Results show that during the past 40 years,air temperature significantly increased(Z=3.93^(***)),while precipitation(Z=-1.54^(*))and river flow(Z=-1.73^(*))both declined.The Khyargas Lake water level dropped markedly(Z=-5.57***).Land cover analysis reveals expanded cropland and impervious areas due to human activity.Under the SSP1.26 scenario,which assumes minimal climate change,air temperature is projected to rise by 2.0℃,precipitation by 21.8 mm,and river discharge by 1.61 m^(3)/s between 2000 and 2100.These findings indicate that both global warming and intensified land use have substantially altered hydrological and climatic processes in the basin,highlighting the vulnerability of western Mongolia's water resources to combined climatic and anthropogenic influence.展开更多
As global climate change intensifies,alpine plants are facing dual pressures of habitat loss and rapid environmental degradation.As one of the world's most biodiverse countries,China's potential shifts in alpi...As global climate change intensifies,alpine plants are facing dual pressures of habitat loss and rapid environmental degradation.As one of the world's most biodiverse countries,China's potential shifts in alpine plant distribution and their profound impact on fragile ecosystems have become a focus of ecological research and conservation efforts,with increasing urgency.Meconopsis,a typical representative of Chinese alpine plants,exhibits diverse adaptability,making it an ideal model for studying how alpine species respond to extreme environmental changes.A lack of comprehensive genus-level analyses may hinder the development of long-term conservation and management strategies.Given the genus's ecological importance,vulnerability,and the risk of trait homogenization in genus-level modeling,there is an urgent need to assess its future distribution patterns,migration trends,and adaptive mechanisms based on habitat classification.In this study,we employed the Maxent model,integrating multidimensional environmental variables,to develop genus-level models and representative habitat-based models(forest,meadows,and periglacial).Results indicate a northwestward expansion and southeastward contraction of suitable habitats under future climate scenarios,with migration patterns in latitude and elevation showing stage-specific characteristics.Key environmental factors varied across models but were mostly associated with seasonal growth traits and microhabitat conditions,highlighting both the universal ecological requirements and niche differentiation within Meconopsis.Based on these findings,we propose a dynamic conservation strategy framework informed by stage-specific responses and habitat differences.Future efforts should focus on incorporating alpine-specific environmental variables and optimizing specimen collection strategies to enhance model performance and support landscape planning and biodiversity conservation.展开更多
Glacier landslide cascading hazards pose threats to communities and infrastructure,affected by complex processes including the amplification of mass flow volume through erosion and entrainment,transformation of hazard...Glacier landslide cascading hazards pose threats to communities and infrastructure,affected by complex processes including the amplification of mass flow volume through erosion and entrainment,transformation of hazard types,ice-water phase change,and enhanced mobility of the mass flow.Scientifically simulating these physical phenomena proves challenging.This study introduces GMFA(glacier mass flow analysis),an integrated numerical model that advances the field by:(1)proposing depth-averaged fluctuation energy and internal energy equations,(2)incorporating the ice-water phase change and the entrainment-deposition process,and(3)capturing their effects on mass flow runout characteristics.The model employs the finite volume method to solve the multi-physics coupled governing equations,enabling efficient large-scale simulations.The model is verified through three numerical tests covering flow dynamics,temperature evolution,and thermo-hydro-mechanical runout processes.The model is applied to analyze a hazard chain that occurred on 10 September 2020 on the Tibetan Plateau.The multi-scenario simulation results indicate an entrained mass volume of(4.95±0.11)×10^(5)m^(3),and a ratio of entrained mass volume to source material volume of 0.44.The solid concentration decreases from 0.6-0.7 to 0.1-0.15 with increasing runout distance,indicating a transition from avalanche to debris flood.The internal energy rises by(3-4)×10^(3)kJ/m^(3),driving rapid ice melting from 0.1 to 0.2 to near-zero concentration.The model effectively quantifies volume amplification,ice-water phase changes,and multi-hazard transformations.This model pushes the geoscience frontier,extending computational capability from single-to multi-hazard simulations and providing a powerful tool for analyzing glacier cascading hazards.展开更多
Hydrological extremes,such as floods,droughts,and compound events,are extremely dangerous to human societies,ecosystems,and infrastructures,whose frequency and severity are affected by climate change more and more.Eff...Hydrological extremes,such as floods,droughts,and compound events,are extremely dangerous to human societies,ecosystems,and infrastructures,whose frequency and severity are affected by climate change more and more.Effective disaster preparedness,water resource management,and climate adaptation have to do with accurate prediction and extensive risk assessment.This review sums up recent progress in predictive modeling and risk assessment systems in the framework of hydrological extremes in the changing climatic conditions.Statistical and empirical techniques,including extreme value theory and nonstationary frequency analysis,give probabilistic information using historic records,whereas process-based models give an understanding of physical hydrological processes at different climate and land-use conditions.New information-based and hybrid methods that use machine learning and high-resolution data take advantage of the complexity and nonlinearities and enhance the predictive power.Hazard,exposure,vulnerability,and adaptive capacity risk assessment models allow predictive output to be translated into actionable decision support,with socio-economic aspects and analysis of the scenario.Case studies of various regions across the globe show the use of these techniques to address floods,droughts,and compound events,with success and current problems.The review also addresses current trends such as compound hazard,multi-hazard integration,AI-enabled modelling,and cross-sectoral decision support,and outlines research priorities of improving predictive capability and resilience.This review will inform researchers,policymakers,and practitioners by offering a synthesis of all the effects of the hydrological extremes in climate change to formulate sound strategies for alleviating these effects.展开更多
The nature reserves have covered one third of the total area of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(QXP),which play a core role in sustaining regional ecological security.However,there is lack of quantitative evidence on compa...The nature reserves have covered one third of the total area of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(QXP),which play a core role in sustaining regional ecological security.However,there is lack of quantitative evidence on comparing the contribution of nature reserves on the changes of landcover and vegetation coverage for both past and future in QXP.Based on two new datasets,we compared the changes of landcover and vegetation coverage during 2000-2020 inside and outside the nature reserves in QXP.Based on Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model and Pixel-by-pixel Multiple Linear Regression,we spatialized the future landcover and vegetation coverage during 2030-2050 under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.The results showed the grassland increased 17.7%inside the nature reserves during 2000-2020,larger than the 12.4%rate of increase outside the nature reserves.Under the SSP245 scenario during 2030-2050,the grassland will increase 12.0%inside and 9.9%outside the nature reserves,and the bare land will decrease 16.9%inside and 19.6%outside the nature reserves.During 2000-2020,the increases of fraction vegetation coverage(FVC)were 0.0015 a^(−1) inside and 0.0013 a^(−1) outside the nature reserve.The FVC increases were not mostly positively correlated with temperature and precipitation,neither inside nor outside the nature reserves.Under the SSP585 scenario during 2030-2050,the increases of FVC were 0.0020 inside and 0.0016 outside the nature reserve.These findings highlight the positive contribution of nature reserves on the ecological security in QXP for both past and future under the fast climate change and increasing human activity.展开更多
Bofedales,high-altitude Andean peatlands,are critical to the sustainability of mountain ecosystems and the livelihoods of pastoral communities.This study presents findings from a transdisciplinary research project foc...Bofedales,high-altitude Andean peatlands,are critical to the sustainability of mountain ecosystems and the livelihoods of pastoral communities.This study presents findings from a transdisciplinary research project focused on two bofedal systems,Sorapata and Aychuta,within Bolivia's Sajama National Park.Using vegetation assessments from 2012 to 2018,we identified a marked decline in cushion-forming species(Distichia muscoides and Oxychloe andina),and a clear shift in community composition,indicating a trend toward desiccation.Land cover analyses from 2014 to 2021 revealed a contraction of dense bofedales and an expansion of dry bofedales and bare soil,indicating sustained degradation.These dynamics manifested differently across sites.In Sorapata,degradation was dominant,although localized irrigation practices implemented in 2018 facilitated partial recovery in one sector.These varied trajectories reveal simultaneous processes of decline and recovery.In contrast,Aychuta maintained relatively stable cushion-dominant vegetation,though vegetation surveys and land cover analyses both revealed early shifts in composition and cover associated with climate change.Together,these patterns reveal simultaneous processes of decline,stability,and recovery.Ecological findings align with interviews with indigenous herders,who attribute degradation to reduced precipitation,rising temperatures,and seismic activity,while emphasizing the role of water management in bofedal restoration.Our results highlight the vulnerability of bofedales to climatic and environmental stressors,emphasizing the importance of integrated water management strategies in their conservation under changing climatic conditions.We advocate for transdisciplinary approaches that combine ecological research,integrate multi-year vegetation surveys,remote sensing,and traditional ecological knowledge to enhance our understanding and conservation of these critical socioecological systems.展开更多
Based on multi-source time-series data from 2017 to 2024,this study comprehensively employed Theil-Sen trend analysis,Mann-Kendall test,random forest regression model,and spatial and temporal lag correlation analysis ...Based on multi-source time-series data from 2017 to 2024,this study comprehensively employed Theil-Sen trend analysis,Mann-Kendall test,random forest regression model,and spatial and temporal lag correlation analysis to systematically investigate the variation characteristics of NDVI and their associated mechanisms with land use changes and groundwater depth in the study area.The results indicate that vegetation activity showed overall significant improvement during the study period,with 60.93%of the area exhibiting significant greening trends and only 6.55%showing degradation.The trajectory characteristics of land use changes could explain approximately 79.64%of the variation in NDVI trends,but their driving effects demonstrated significant spatial heterogeneity,with core driving zones accounting for 79.22%of the area.Groundwater depth showed an overall weak negative correlation with NDVI(r=-0.0464),but exhibited significant lag effects,and the correlation coefficient increased to-0.1763 when there was a lag of 3 months.The study concludes that regional vegetation changes were primarily driven by land use activities,while the influences of groundwater showed spatial and temporal lag characteristics.Ecological restoration policies should integrate land use optimization with water resource management,and fully consider the spatial heterogeneity and temporal lag effects of driving mechanisms.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFD2200501).
文摘Climate warming is significantly altering the distribution of tree species,which holds crucial implications for China’s Larix species as they are important afforestation efforts.Understanding their optimal habitats and environmental constraints is vital for predicting range shifts and guiding adaptive forest management.Previous studies prioritized changing climate impacts on horizontal range shifts of Larix,neglecting the influence of soil factors and range shift along altitudinal gradients.To address this,we applied an optimized MaxEnt model to assess current and future SSP126/SSP585 scenarios,three-dimensional habitat suitability(latitude,longitude,altitude)for four major Larix species(L.principis-rupprechtii,L.gmelinii,L.kaempferi,L.olgensis),while identifying key environmental drivers.Our results indicate that elevation and extreme moisture conditions universally constrain their distribution.Soil chemistry properties exhibited species-specific influences:cation exchange capacity critically shaped L.principis-rupprechtii and L.gmelinii ranges,whereas exchangeable aluminum determined L.kaempferi and L.olgensis distribution.Under future climate scenarios,habitat areas show divergent trajectories-L.principis-rupprechtii maximum gains 5.1%under SSP126,while L.kaempferi maximum expands 15.1%.Conversely,SSP585 triggered a 3.7% decline for L.gmelinii during the 2040s−2100s,and L.olgensis faces a net reduction to 0.4% by 2100s despite transient gains.Spatially,three species(L.kaempferi,L.gmelinii,L.olgensis)shifted northward,while L.principis-rupprechtii migrated northwest.All species distribution ascended altitudinally reflecting thermal adaptation strategies.These multidimensional insights enable targeted species selection for climate-resilient afforestation and underscore the need for soil-inclusive management planning.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Plan“Inter-governmental International Science&Technology Innovation Cooperation”Key Specialized Program,China(2025YFE0102800)the Program of the State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science and Frozen Soil Engineering,Chinese Academy of Sciences(CSFSE-ZZ-2403).
文摘Tajikistan contains the majority of Central Asia’s glaciers,which cover about 6.00%of the national territory;their rapid shrinkage poses a significant threat to regional water resource security.However,glacier monitoring in Tajikistan was interrupted after 1991,creating a substantial gap in understanding the current state and temporal evolution of these glaciers.Based on glacier inventory data,in situ measurements,and published literature,this study examined the present status and recent variations of glaciers in Tajikistan through data integration and validation,literature collation and comparative analysis,and the application of Geographic Information System(GIS)spatial analysis techniques.As of 2023,Tajikistan possesses a total of 11,528 glaciers,encompassing an area of 7624.48(±305.58)km2.Small glaciers dominate in number,whereas large glaciers account for the majority of the total area.Over the past two decades,the glacier count has decreased by 2014,and the total area has decreased by 628.98 km2,corresponding to an average annual reduction rate of 0.33%.Regional shrinkage rates range from 4.10%to 22.28%.Glaciers have undergone accelerated mass loss during the past 20 a;only those on the northeastern Pamir Plateau exhibit a weak positive mass balance.Observations of typical monitored glaciers also reveal intensified melting and retreat,consistent with regional trends.In light of the recent acceleration of glacier shrinkage in Tajikistan,focused measures should be implemented to strengthen glacier monitoring,enhance public awareness of glacier preservation,and promote the sustainable development and utilization of glacier tourism.These findings bridge the knowledge gap regarding the spatiotemporal dynamics of Tajikistan’s glaciers over recent decades and provide essential data support for regional water resource management.
基金financially supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.FRF-KST-25-001)the Beijing Natural Science Foundation(No.L253029)。
文摘In the context of the global energy low-carbon transition,phase change energy storage technology becomes a key technology to solve the problem of intermittent renewable energy.Oriented phase change composites(OCPCMs)receive widespread attention in practical energy storage applications due to their unique oriented thermally conductive structure,which achieves significant thermal conductivity enhancement in specific directions while retaining the high energy storage capacity of the phase change components.This review systematically summarizes the overall analysis of OCPCMs from synthesis and preparation to application scenarios in recent years.Herein,we introduce the analysis of the heat transfer mechanism of the materials and explore the advantages of the oriented structure in OCPCMs in the heat transfer behavior from a bionic perspective.We then focus on summarizing and generalizing the methods for preparing OCPCMs,giving suggestions for suitable methods according to different scenarios.Besides,we discuss the application of finite element simulation methods to the monitoring of the thermal management behavior of OCPCMs,and look into the potential future application areas of such materials.Finally,it is hoped that this review will provide guidance for the academic community in developing high-performance OCPCMs.
基金David and Inez Myers Foundation,the Israeli Ministry of Science and Technology(MOST)The Israel Science Foundation(No.422/23)(to DT).
文摘With the rapid increase in the aging population comes a rise in the incidence and prevalence of neurodegenerative diseases.Therefore,it is critical to understand the molecular changes that occur,which can either cause disease or make brains resilient.Epigenetic changes are a common suspect and target,not only because they are among the hallmarks of aging,but also because they are flexible and could potentially be reversed.
文摘We examine possible funding sources for constructing Climate Change Haven Communities on a global basis. Areas of the planet that have the potential to house persons migrating to “safe havens” in their own or other countries will require the rapid construction of communities capable of supporting them, their families, businesses and farms. However, different political-economic conditions are found across the areas which can serve as locations for these Climate Change Haven Communities. We develop funding and construction strategies for the United States (free-market capitalism), France and Spain (European Union supported economies), and Taiwan region (state-directed economy). The proposals for the Taiwan region should also be applicable to the rest of China.
基金financially supported by Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong province(2024A1515010228)CATARC Automotive Inspection Center Excellent Engineer Program(2023B0909050007).
文摘To address the challenge of balancing thermal management and thermal runaway mitigation,it is crucial to explore effective methods for enhancing the safety of lithium-ion battery systems.Herein,an innovative hydrated salt composite phase change material(HSCPCM)with dual phase transition temperature zones has been proposed.This HSCPCM,denoted as SDMA10,combines hydrophilic modified expanded graphite,an acrylic emulsion coating,and eutectic hydrated salts to achieve leakage prevention,enhanced thermal stability,cycling stability,and superior phase change behavior.Battery modules incorporating SDMA10 demonstrate significant thermal control capabilities.Specifically,the cylindrical battery modules with SDMA10 can maintain maximum operating temperatures below 55°C at 4 C discharge rate,while prismatic battery modules can keep maximum operating temperatures below 65°C at 2 C discharge rate.In extreme battery overheating conditions simulated using heating plates,SDMA10 effectively suppresses thermal propagation.Even when the central heating plate reaches 300°C,the maximum temperature at the module edge heating plates remains below 85°C.Further,compared to organic composite phase change materials(CPCMs),the battery module with SDMA10 can further reduce the peak thermal runaway temperature by 93°C and delay the thermal runaway trigger time by 689 s,thereby significantly decreasing heat diffusion.Therefore,the designed HSCPCM integrates excellent latent heat storage and thermochemical storage capabilities,providing high thermal energy storage density within the thermal management and thermal runaway threshold temperature range.This research will offer a promising pathway for improving the thermal safety performance of battery packs in electric vehicles and other energy storage systems.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(62204250)Autonomous deployment project of State Key Laboratory of Materials for Integrated Circuits(SKLJC-Z2024-A05).
文摘In this paper,we present a broadband,high-extinction-ratio,nonvolatile 2×2 Mach-Zehnder interfer⁃ometer(MZI)optical switch based on the phase change material Sb_(2)Se_(3).The insertion loss(IL)is 0.84 dB and the extinction ratio(ER)reaches 28.8 dB at the wavelength of 1550 nm.The 3 dB bandwidth is greater than 150 nm.Within the 3 dB bandwidth,the ER is greater than 20.3 dB and 16.3 dB at bar and cross states,respectively.The power consumption for crystallization and amorphization of Sb_(2)Se_(3) is 105.86 nJ and 49 nJ,respectively.The switch holds significant promise for optical interconnects and optical computing applications.
文摘The accelerating impacts of climate change,rising temperatures,extreme weather events,and biodiversity loss underscore the urgent need for widespread public awareness.This research explores why climate change awareness is not just beneficial but essential for effective environmental stewardship and the long-term health of our planet.The research proffers informed communities,encouraging sustainable practices,and driving policy advocacy,awareness serves as a model for collective action.This call to consciousness challenges individuals,institutions,and nations to recognize their role in shaping a resilient,sustainable future for the Earth.Methodology adopted in this research is a mixed-method design,involving both qualitative and quasi-experimental designs,which engages the use of focus group discussions and oral interviews to explore deeper insights into perceptions,biodiversity loss consciousness,and environmental depletion challenges.Also,applicable under the qualitative method is the secondary data collection mode,namely,reports from IPCC,government policy documents,and existing literature related to the context of the research.The empirical and scientific data analysis was presented from the data collected and was coded and subjected to analysis using a paired samples t-test.The study is grounded on the theory of“Value-Belief-Norm”(VBN)developed by Stern et al.The VBN theory posits that individuals are more likely to engage in pro-environmental behaviour when their values(especially biosphere and altruistic),beliefs(about environmental consequences),and norms(personal responsibility to act)align.The findings of this study underscore the critical role of climate change awareness in fostering environmental and earth stewardship.The paper recommends that Governments of the country(State and federal)should take urgent steps in sensitising the general public on the causes and impact of climate change.
文摘Climate change is one of the most pressing global challenges and spares no nation.Bhutan,as the only carbon negative country in the world,is no exception and being in the Himalayas–a region warming faster than the global average–further intensifies climate risks.This study explores how Bhutan navigates climate change through the perspectives of 41 policy influencers,including politicians,civil servants,and leaders from nongovernment organisations and the media.The findings are compared with scientific literature from the broader Himalayan region to identify shared vulnerabilities(e.g.,glacial lake outburst floods,water scarcity,and agricultural disruptions)and governance challenges(e.g.,financial constraints,geopolitical pressures,and gaps in policy implementation).The study reveals that Bhutan,like its Himalayan neighbours,prioritizes adaptation over mitigation due to immediate climate threats,despite its carbonnegative status.However,Bhutan faces unique pressures in upholding its dual commitments—maintaining 60%forest cover and carbon neutrality—amid competing development needs.While its Gross National Happiness(GNH)framework provides a holistic governance model,the analysis uncovers systemic barriers,including limited financing,transboundary climate risks,and uneven policy execution,which mirror regional struggles.The paper contributes to climate governance discourse by highlighting the risks of symbolic environmental pledges without robust implementation mechanisms,particularly for vulnerable mountain nations.It calls for integrated policies that bridge mitigation and adaptation,stronger regional cooperation,and equitable climate financing.The findings are relevant for policymakers in the Himalayas and international stakeholders advocating context-specific,justiceoriented climate strategies.
基金supported by the JOINT CAS-MPG Research Project(Grant No.HZXM20225001MI)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.W2412056,42271116 and 32100373)the China Biodiversity Observation Networks(Sino BON)。
文摘Climate change is altering vegetation phenology,differentially affecting food quality and availability for the gosling development(and therefore fitness)of migratory herbivores,especially those experiencing range contraction and fragmentation.By quantifying the climate-vegetation nexus for two waterbird species of contrasting conservation status,we assessed the differential implications of climate change in semi-arid landscapes for gosling development windows in different parts of their mid-latitude breeding ranges.We defined breeding ranges using telemetry data from 663 summering tracks of tagged Swan Geese(Anser cygnoides)and Greylag Geese(A.anser)breeding across the Mongolian Plateau.Within these areas,we systematically analyzed spatiotemporal variations in vegetation phenology based on MODIS NDVI datasets from 2000 to 2024 and their response to climate factors.Combining the above data,we demonstrated synchrony between goose breeding phenology and vegetation phenological indices:gosling hatching coincided with the start of growing season(SOS),autumn migration initiation with the end of growing season(EOS).We determined temporal and geographical variation in vegetation SOS,EOS and the length of growing season(LOS=EOS-SOS)as a proxy for gosling development windows across the Mongolian Plateau.Mean LOS was 107±13 days,generally sufficient for gosling development(c.113 days),but showed spatial heterogeneity,increasing in the west but shortening in the east of Mongolian Plateau.SOS was delayed with higher land surface temperature and lower precipitation/aridity in central/eastern Mongolian Plateau,but advanced in the west.Elevation of these three climatic factors delayed EOS across Mongolian Plateau.Climate warming and hydric stress may trigger synergistic SOS-delay and EOS-advance effects in the central and eastern Mongolian Plateau,increasing differential phenological mismatch risks to offspring fitness,thereby potentially affecting population growth rates and distributions.
基金Supported by the Scientific Research Projects of the Health System in Pingshan District,No.2023122.
文摘BACKGROUND Lumbar interbody fusion(LIF)is the primary treatment for lumbar degenerative diseases.Elderly patients are prone to anxiety and depression after undergoing surgery,which affects their postoperative recovery speed and quality of life.Effective prevention of anxiety and depression in elderly patients has become an urgent problem.AIM To investigate the trajectory of anxiety and depression levels in elderly patients after LIF,and the influencing factors.METHODS Random sampling was used to select 239 elderly patients who underwent LIF from January 2020 to December 2024 in Shenzhen Pingle Orthopedic Hospital.General information and surgery-related indices were recorded,and participants completed measures of psychological status,lumbar spine dysfunction,and quality of life.A latent class growth model was used to analyze the post-LIF trajectory of anxiety and depression levels,and unordered multi-categorical logistic regression was used to analyze the influencing factors.RESULTS Three trajectories of change in anxiety level were identified:Increasing anxiety(n=26,10.88%),decreasing anxiety(n=27,11.30%),and stable anxiety(n=186,77.82%).Likewise,three trajectories of change in depression level were identified:Increasing depression(n=30,12.55%),decreasing depression(n=26,10.88%),and stable depression(n=183,76.57%).Regression analysis showed that having no partner,female sex,elevated Oswestry dysfunction index(ODI)scores,and reduced 36-Item Short Form Health Survey scores all contributed to increased anxiety levels,whereas female sex,postoperative opioid use,and elevated ODI scores all contributed to increased depression levels.CONCLUSION During clinical observation,combining factors to predict anxiety and depression in post-LIF elderly patients enables timely intervention,quickens recovery,and enhances quality of life.
基金supported by the Henan Province Key R&D Project under Grant 241111210400the Henan Provincial Science and Technology Research Project under Grants 252102211047,252102211062,252102211055 and 232102210069+2 种基金the Jiangsu Provincial Scheme Double Initiative Plan JSS-CBS20230474,the XJTLU RDF-21-02-008the Science and Technology Innovation Project of Zhengzhou University of Light Industry under Grant 23XNKJTD0205the Higher Education Teaching Reform Research and Practice Project of Henan Province under Grant 2024SJGLX0126。
文摘Accurate and efficient detection of building changes in remote sensing imagery is crucial for urban planning,disaster emergency response,and resource management.However,existing methods face challenges such as spectral similarity between buildings and backgrounds,sensor variations,and insufficient computational efficiency.To address these challenges,this paper proposes a novel Multi-scale Efficient Wavelet-based Change Detection Network(MewCDNet),which integrates the advantages of Convolutional Neural Networks and Transformers,balances computational costs,and achieves high-performance building change detection.The network employs EfficientNet-B4 as the backbone for hierarchical feature extraction,integrates multi-level feature maps through a multi-scale fusion strategy,and incorporates two key modules:Cross-temporal Difference Detection(CTDD)and Cross-scale Wavelet Refinement(CSWR).CTDD adopts a dual-branch architecture that combines pixel-wise differencing with semanticaware Euclidean distance weighting to enhance the distinction between true changes and background noise.CSWR integrates Haar-based Discrete Wavelet Transform with multi-head cross-attention mechanisms,enabling cross-scale feature fusion while significantly improving edge localization and suppressing spurious changes.Extensive experiments on four benchmark datasets demonstrate MewCDNet’s superiority over comparison methods:achieving F1 scores of 91.54%on LEVIR,93.70%on WHUCD,and 64.96%on S2Looking for building change detection.Furthermore,MewCDNet exhibits optimal performance on the multi-class⋅SYSU dataset(F1:82.71%),highlighting its exceptional generalization capability.
基金the University of Milan for funding the“ProForesta”project through the 2020 Research Support Planthe“Ente Parco Nazionale dell'Appennino Tosco-Emiliano”for having financed the project“First urgent measures to promote the adaptation of the silver fir forests of the Tuscan-Emilian Apennine National Park to the effects of climate change”。
文摘Understanding how genetic variation within forest species influences growth responses under climate change is essential for improving the accuracy of forest models and guiding adaptive management strategies.This study models the dynamics of Italian silver fir(Abies alba)forests under varying climate change scenarios using the forest gap model FORMIND.Focusing on three distinct silver fir provenances(Western Alps,Northern Apennines,and Southern Apennines),the study simulates forest growth in the Tuscan-Emilian Apennine National Park under different representative concentration pathways(RCPs).The individual-based model FORMIND was parameterized and validated with field data for each of the provenances,demonstrating its ability to accurately reproduce key forest metrics and dynamics.Our results reveal significant differences in expected growth patterns,productivity,metabolism,and carbon storage capacity among the silver fir provenances in pure and mixed stands.In the simulations,the Northern Apennines provenance showed higher biomass production(biomass>10%±1%)and carbon uptake(net primary productivity,NPP>8%±1%)at the end of the century compared to the Western Alps provenance in the pure provenance(PP)and no regeneration scenario.Conversely,the Southern Apennines provenance showed higher biomass(biomass>5%–10%)and NPP(>15%–18%)in mixed provenance(MP)and regeneration scenarios.These results show that genetic diversity strongly affects forest growth and resilience to environmental changes.Hence,it should be included as a predictor variable in forest models.The study also demonstrates the resilience of silver fir to climatic stressors,emphasizing its potential as a robust species in multiple forest contexts.The integration of forest provenance data into the FORMIND model represents a significant advancement in forest modelling,enabling more accurate and reliable predictions under climate change scenarios.The study's findings advocate for a greater understanding and consideration of genetic diversity in forest management and conservation strategies,in support of assisted migration strategies aiming to enhance the resilience of forest ecosystems in a changing climate.
基金The National University of Mongolia,No.P2024-4814The Mongolian Science and Technology Foundation,No.CHN-2022/274The‘Chey Institute for Advanced Studies’International Scholar Exchange Fellowship for the Academic Year of 2025-2026。
文摘This study investigates climate-and human-induced hydrological changes in the Zavkhan River-Khyargas Lake Basin,a highly sensitive arid and semi-arid region of Central Asia.Using Mann-Kendall,innovative trend analysis,and Sen's slope estimation methods,historical climate trends(1980-2100)were analyzed,while land cover changes represented human impacts.Future projections were simulated using the MIROC model with Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)and the Tank model.Results show that during the past 40 years,air temperature significantly increased(Z=3.93^(***)),while precipitation(Z=-1.54^(*))and river flow(Z=-1.73^(*))both declined.The Khyargas Lake water level dropped markedly(Z=-5.57***).Land cover analysis reveals expanded cropland and impervious areas due to human activity.Under the SSP1.26 scenario,which assumes minimal climate change,air temperature is projected to rise by 2.0℃,precipitation by 21.8 mm,and river discharge by 1.61 m^(3)/s between 2000 and 2100.These findings indicate that both global warming and intensified land use have substantially altered hydrological and climatic processes in the basin,highlighting the vulnerability of western Mongolia's water resources to combined climatic and anthropogenic influence.
文摘As global climate change intensifies,alpine plants are facing dual pressures of habitat loss and rapid environmental degradation.As one of the world's most biodiverse countries,China's potential shifts in alpine plant distribution and their profound impact on fragile ecosystems have become a focus of ecological research and conservation efforts,with increasing urgency.Meconopsis,a typical representative of Chinese alpine plants,exhibits diverse adaptability,making it an ideal model for studying how alpine species respond to extreme environmental changes.A lack of comprehensive genus-level analyses may hinder the development of long-term conservation and management strategies.Given the genus's ecological importance,vulnerability,and the risk of trait homogenization in genus-level modeling,there is an urgent need to assess its future distribution patterns,migration trends,and adaptive mechanisms based on habitat classification.In this study,we employed the Maxent model,integrating multidimensional environmental variables,to develop genus-level models and representative habitat-based models(forest,meadows,and periglacial).Results indicate a northwestward expansion and southeastward contraction of suitable habitats under future climate scenarios,with migration patterns in latitude and elevation showing stage-specific characteristics.Key environmental factors varied across models but were mostly associated with seasonal growth traits and microhabitat conditions,highlighting both the universal ecological requirements and niche differentiation within Meconopsis.Based on these findings,we propose a dynamic conservation strategy framework informed by stage-specific responses and habitat differences.Future efforts should focus on incorporating alpine-specific environmental variables and optimizing specimen collection strategies to enhance model performance and support landscape planning and biodiversity conservation.
基金supports from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U20A20112)the Research Grants Council of the Hong Kong SAR Government,China(Grant Nos.T22-606/23-R and 16206923).
文摘Glacier landslide cascading hazards pose threats to communities and infrastructure,affected by complex processes including the amplification of mass flow volume through erosion and entrainment,transformation of hazard types,ice-water phase change,and enhanced mobility of the mass flow.Scientifically simulating these physical phenomena proves challenging.This study introduces GMFA(glacier mass flow analysis),an integrated numerical model that advances the field by:(1)proposing depth-averaged fluctuation energy and internal energy equations,(2)incorporating the ice-water phase change and the entrainment-deposition process,and(3)capturing their effects on mass flow runout characteristics.The model employs the finite volume method to solve the multi-physics coupled governing equations,enabling efficient large-scale simulations.The model is verified through three numerical tests covering flow dynamics,temperature evolution,and thermo-hydro-mechanical runout processes.The model is applied to analyze a hazard chain that occurred on 10 September 2020 on the Tibetan Plateau.The multi-scenario simulation results indicate an entrained mass volume of(4.95±0.11)×10^(5)m^(3),and a ratio of entrained mass volume to source material volume of 0.44.The solid concentration decreases from 0.6-0.7 to 0.1-0.15 with increasing runout distance,indicating a transition from avalanche to debris flood.The internal energy rises by(3-4)×10^(3)kJ/m^(3),driving rapid ice melting from 0.1 to 0.2 to near-zero concentration.The model effectively quantifies volume amplification,ice-water phase changes,and multi-hazard transformations.This model pushes the geoscience frontier,extending computational capability from single-to multi-hazard simulations and providing a powerful tool for analyzing glacier cascading hazards.
文摘Hydrological extremes,such as floods,droughts,and compound events,are extremely dangerous to human societies,ecosystems,and infrastructures,whose frequency and severity are affected by climate change more and more.Effective disaster preparedness,water resource management,and climate adaptation have to do with accurate prediction and extensive risk assessment.This review sums up recent progress in predictive modeling and risk assessment systems in the framework of hydrological extremes in the changing climatic conditions.Statistical and empirical techniques,including extreme value theory and nonstationary frequency analysis,give probabilistic information using historic records,whereas process-based models give an understanding of physical hydrological processes at different climate and land-use conditions.New information-based and hybrid methods that use machine learning and high-resolution data take advantage of the complexity and nonlinearities and enhance the predictive power.Hazard,exposure,vulnerability,and adaptive capacity risk assessment models allow predictive output to be translated into actionable decision support,with socio-economic aspects and analysis of the scenario.Case studies of various regions across the globe show the use of these techniques to address floods,droughts,and compound events,with success and current problems.The review also addresses current trends such as compound hazard,multi-hazard integration,AI-enabled modelling,and cross-sectoral decision support,and outlines research priorities of improving predictive capability and resilience.This review will inform researchers,policymakers,and practitioners by offering a synthesis of all the effects of the hydrological extremes in climate change to formulate sound strategies for alleviating these effects.
基金supported by the Second Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research Program(2019QZKK0405)the Natural Science Research Projects of Dezhou University(2021xjrc106).
文摘The nature reserves have covered one third of the total area of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau(QXP),which play a core role in sustaining regional ecological security.However,there is lack of quantitative evidence on comparing the contribution of nature reserves on the changes of landcover and vegetation coverage for both past and future in QXP.Based on two new datasets,we compared the changes of landcover and vegetation coverage during 2000-2020 inside and outside the nature reserves in QXP.Based on Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model and Pixel-by-pixel Multiple Linear Regression,we spatialized the future landcover and vegetation coverage during 2030-2050 under SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios.The results showed the grassland increased 17.7%inside the nature reserves during 2000-2020,larger than the 12.4%rate of increase outside the nature reserves.Under the SSP245 scenario during 2030-2050,the grassland will increase 12.0%inside and 9.9%outside the nature reserves,and the bare land will decrease 16.9%inside and 19.6%outside the nature reserves.During 2000-2020,the increases of fraction vegetation coverage(FVC)were 0.0015 a^(−1) inside and 0.0013 a^(−1) outside the nature reserve.The FVC increases were not mostly positively correlated with temperature and precipitation,neither inside nor outside the nature reserves.Under the SSP585 scenario during 2030-2050,the increases of FVC were 0.0020 inside and 0.0016 outside the nature reserve.These findings highlight the positive contribution of nature reserves on the ecological security in QXP for both past and future under the fast climate change and increasing human activity.
基金funded by the Chilean National Agency for Research and Development(ANID)(MILENIO–NCS2022_009,FONDAP 1523A0003,and PFCHA/DOCTORADO NACIONAL/2020–21201693)the support of the Universidad de Tarapacá(UTA Mayor 5744-25)+1 种基金the support of the NASA ROSES LCLUC Program,Contract NNH15CN72C(NNH15CN7)the support of ANID Fondecyt Iniciación 11250991-2025。
文摘Bofedales,high-altitude Andean peatlands,are critical to the sustainability of mountain ecosystems and the livelihoods of pastoral communities.This study presents findings from a transdisciplinary research project focused on two bofedal systems,Sorapata and Aychuta,within Bolivia's Sajama National Park.Using vegetation assessments from 2012 to 2018,we identified a marked decline in cushion-forming species(Distichia muscoides and Oxychloe andina),and a clear shift in community composition,indicating a trend toward desiccation.Land cover analyses from 2014 to 2021 revealed a contraction of dense bofedales and an expansion of dry bofedales and bare soil,indicating sustained degradation.These dynamics manifested differently across sites.In Sorapata,degradation was dominant,although localized irrigation practices implemented in 2018 facilitated partial recovery in one sector.These varied trajectories reveal simultaneous processes of decline and recovery.In contrast,Aychuta maintained relatively stable cushion-dominant vegetation,though vegetation surveys and land cover analyses both revealed early shifts in composition and cover associated with climate change.Together,these patterns reveal simultaneous processes of decline,stability,and recovery.Ecological findings align with interviews with indigenous herders,who attribute degradation to reduced precipitation,rising temperatures,and seismic activity,while emphasizing the role of water management in bofedal restoration.Our results highlight the vulnerability of bofedales to climatic and environmental stressors,emphasizing the importance of integrated water management strategies in their conservation under changing climatic conditions.We advocate for transdisciplinary approaches that combine ecological research,integrate multi-year vegetation surveys,remote sensing,and traditional ecological knowledge to enhance our understanding and conservation of these critical socioecological systems.
基金Supported by the Key Special Project for Water Conservancy Science and Technology of Ordos City(ESKJ2023-001).
文摘Based on multi-source time-series data from 2017 to 2024,this study comprehensively employed Theil-Sen trend analysis,Mann-Kendall test,random forest regression model,and spatial and temporal lag correlation analysis to systematically investigate the variation characteristics of NDVI and their associated mechanisms with land use changes and groundwater depth in the study area.The results indicate that vegetation activity showed overall significant improvement during the study period,with 60.93%of the area exhibiting significant greening trends and only 6.55%showing degradation.The trajectory characteristics of land use changes could explain approximately 79.64%of the variation in NDVI trends,but their driving effects demonstrated significant spatial heterogeneity,with core driving zones accounting for 79.22%of the area.Groundwater depth showed an overall weak negative correlation with NDVI(r=-0.0464),but exhibited significant lag effects,and the correlation coefficient increased to-0.1763 when there was a lag of 3 months.The study concludes that regional vegetation changes were primarily driven by land use activities,while the influences of groundwater showed spatial and temporal lag characteristics.Ecological restoration policies should integrate land use optimization with water resource management,and fully consider the spatial heterogeneity and temporal lag effects of driving mechanisms.
