The situation of China’s power industry to achieve carbon peaking and risks and challenges for China’s power industry to cope with carbon peaking were analyzed, and then macro countermeasures for the power industry ...The situation of China’s power industry to achieve carbon peaking and risks and challenges for China’s power industry to cope with carbon peaking were analyzed, and then macro countermeasures for the power industry to cope with carbon peaking were proposed.展开更多
Consolidating carbon sink capacity and reducing carbon pressure are important channels to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals actively yet prudently.In order to study the current situation of carbon...Consolidating carbon sink capacity and reducing carbon pressure are important channels to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals actively yet prudently.In order to study the current situation of carbon pressure in the Northwestern Sichuan,we took the carbon pressure of the Aba Tibetan-Qiang autonomous prefecture(Aba prefecture)as an example and used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)approach to measure the carbon emissions,carbon uptake,and the carbon balance index(CBI)of each county-level city in Aba prefecture from 2012 to 2020.The study found that:(a)There was a continuous trend of declining carbon emissions,increased carbon uptake,and decreased CBI in Aba prefecture during the sample period,but there is a large variability among county-level cities;(b)Aba prefecture differs in the spatiotemporal distribution of carbon emissions,carbon uptake,and CBI.Based on the research results,we propose several optimized paths for alleviating the current carbon pressure situation in the Northwestern Sichuan.展开更多
With the goal of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality,this paper studies the carbon effect of agricultural land remediation.In this paper,the carbon effect mechanism and calculation method of land consolidation...With the goal of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality,this paper studies the carbon effect of agricultural land remediation.In this paper,the carbon effect mechanism and calculation method of land consolidation,the proposed national carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,and the requirements put forward by agricultural land consolidation followed were analyzed.Then,the application research on the carbon effect accounting of agricultural land consolidation was conducted.Besides,the application process of carbon effect accounting of land consolidation with the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Therefore,we hope this study will play an effective role to advance the carbon effect research in the regulation of agricultural land.展开更多
The vision of reaching a carbon peak and achieving carbon neutrality is guiding the low-carbon transition of China’s socioeconomic system.Currently,a research gap remains in the existing literature in terms of studie...The vision of reaching a carbon peak and achieving carbon neutrality is guiding the low-carbon transition of China’s socioeconomic system.Currently,a research gap remains in the existing literature in terms of studies that systematically identify opportunities to achieve carbon neutrality.To address this gap,this study comprehensively collates and investigates 1105 published research studies regarding carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.In doing so,the principles of development in this area are quantitively analyzed from a space–time perspective.At the same time,this study traces shifts and alterations in research hotspots.This systematic review summarizes the priorities and standpoints of key industries on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Furthermore,with an emphasis on five key management science topics,the scientific concerns and strategic demands for these two carbon emission-reduction goals are clarified.The paper ends with theoretical insights on and practical countermeasures for actions,priority tasks,and policy measures that will enable China to achieve a carbon-neutral future.This study provides a complete picture of the research status on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,as well as the research directions worth investigating in this field,which are crucial to the formulation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality policies.展开更多
"Promoting green development and realizing the harmonious coexistence of man and nature" is an important goal of the countrys "14 Five Year Plan". Whether this goal can be achieved will directly af..."Promoting green development and realizing the harmonious coexistence of man and nature" is an important goal of the countrys "14 Five Year Plan". Whether this goal can be achieved will directly affect the transformation of Chinas economic and social development mode. The focus of this paper is based on the analysis of the current situation and challenges of green finance under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization. On this basis, it puts forward some reference measures for the future development of green finance in China to help China achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization as soon as possible.展开更多
In 2022,Chinese policymakers emphasized the importance of leveraging the country's domestic energy resource endowments and implementing a phased and well-planned carbon peaking strategy by following the principle ...In 2022,Chinese policymakers emphasized the importance of leveraging the country's domestic energy resource endowments and implementing a phased and well-planned carbon peaking strategy by following the principle of"establishing the new before phasing out the old".To explore the carbon reduction potential and path optimization in resource-based regions undergoing energy structure adjustments,this study employed the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP)to simulate and analyze both a baseline scenario and a comprehensive policy intervention scenario from 2021 to 2050.This study focused on the typical resource-based region of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and developed a customized"LEAP-Inner Mongolia"model.The findings reveal that:(1)Under the comprehensive scenario,energy demand is notably reduced by 2050,with total carbon emissions cut by 70.96%compared to the baseline scenario;(2)The Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC)analysis suggests a persistent rise in emissions under the baseline scenario,while a carbon peak is achieved as early as 2029 under the integrated scenario;and(3)There are limitations of isolated policy instruments so a synergistic approach that integrates power generation structure optimization with improvements in energy efficiency is necessary.Accordingly,we propose a multi-pronged policy portfolio that includes the synchronized development of clean energy and efficient end-use systems,industrial low-carbon transformation,accelerated adoption of new energy vehicles,and improved inter-regional coordination.These recommendations can offer systemic insights for guiding low-carbon transitions in resource-based areas.展开更多
First,a brief introduction is made to the four basic judgments and understandings of the goals of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality."Then,an in-depth elaboration is provided on the eight major strategies ...First,a brief introduction is made to the four basic judgments and understandings of the goals of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality."Then,an in-depth elaboration is provided on the eight major strategies for achieving the goals of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,"including conservation and efficiency priority,energy security,non-fossil energy substitution,reelectrification,resource recycling,carbon sequestration,digitalization and cooperation between countries.Next,eight major implementation paths for achieving the goals of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"are discussed in detail,including industrial restructuring;building a clean,low-carbon,safe and_efficient energy system,and renewing the understanding of China's energy resource endowment;accelerating the construction of a new-type power system with a gradually growing proportion of new energy,and realizing the"possible triangle"of highquality energy system development;utilizing electrification and deep decarbonization technologies to promote the orderly peaking and gradual neutralization of carbon emissions in the industrial sector;promoting the lowcarbon transition of transportation vehicles to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the transportation sector;focusing on breaking through key green building technologies to achieve zero carbon emissions from building electricity and heat;providing a strong technical support for carbon removal to achieve carbon neutrality;accelerating the construction of the integrated planning and assessment mechanism for pollution and carbon reduction,establishing a sound strategy,planning,policy and action system,and optimizing the carbon trading system.Afterwards,it is particularly pointed out that the realization of the goals of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"cannot be separated from the support of scitech innovation.Finally,it is stressed that carbon neutrality is not the end,but an important milestone.If viewed from the perspective of future energy,the significance and historical status of the goals of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"will be more understandable.展开更多
The successively proposed carbon peaking and carbon neutrality have not only set new goals for the green and low-carbon development of China's economy,but also demonstrated China's further determination and se...The successively proposed carbon peaking and carbon neutrality have not only set new goals for the green and low-carbon development of China's economy,but also demonstrated China's further determination and sense of responsibility for a greater contribution to address global climate change.Considering the importance of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the course of achieving the Second Centenary Goal(1949-2049),it is necessary for China to make scientific planning for the roadmap of carbon emission reduction,carbon peaking and carbon neutrality to ensure building a great modern socialist country under carbon constraints.More specifically,the optimization and realignment of energy structure,industrial structure,production and consumption structure,the rational planning of afforestation,and the vigorous development of global carbon emissions trading will be the core strategies for boosting green and low-carbon development of China's economy.展开更多
Based on the full consideration of both domestic and global environments and conditions,the adherence to the conviction that lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets,and the comprehensive weighing of pros...Based on the full consideration of both domestic and global environments and conditions,the adherence to the conviction that lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets,and the comprehensive weighing of pros and cons,the Chinese government has made a major strategic decision to achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,which is crucial to the overall green transformation of the economy and society and the long-term benefits of the Chinese nation.With the new energy revolution and energy mix diversification driven by the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,nonfossil energy sources centered on photovoltaic energy will gradually dominate the energy mix,while the status of electricity and hydrogen energy will be significantly enhanced and the consumption of coal and petroleum will decline significantly.Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals are both challenges and opportunities for China.Specific challenges are embodied in the large pressure of economic and energy restructuring,the rising manufacturing costs,the difficulties in withdrawing coal-fired power stations,the possibility of unstable grid operations due to large-scale integration of photovoltaic and wind power into the power distribution network,and the supply risks of key metals,while specific opportunities are emerging in the strong competitiveness of photovoltaic and wind power equipment,lower dependence on foreign petroleum and gas supply and accelerated low-carbon green transformation.China should strengthen the top-level design of the path to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,encourage innovation of green low-carbon technologies,accelerate economic and energy restructuring,strictly restrict the construction of new high-emission and energy-intensive projects,and steadily promote the adjustment and withdrawal of the existing high-emission and energy-intensive projects.展开更多
China has always tried to maintain multilateralism and advocated working together to deal with global climate change through multilateral mechanisms.Although China's announcement to peak its carbon emissions by 20...China has always tried to maintain multilateralism and advocated working together to deal with global climate change through multilateral mechanisms.Although China's announcement to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 comes as no surprise,its commitment to carbon neutrality does.As the period between its carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is far shorter than that in the developed countries,China's economic and energy structures need to be adjusted toward the low-carbon and carbon-free end with unprecedented efforts.To that end,China should define the responsibilities of local authorities and industrial entities to promote the orderly accomplishment of carbon peaking in all regions and industries.To supply the huge investments needed to achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,China has an urgent need to accelerate the development of green finance and a national carbon emissions trading market,guide the rational allocation of resources,and channel resources to eco-friendly projects for green and low-carbon development.At the same time,China and the international community should strengthen dialogue and coordination,promote international cooperation on the way to carbon neutrality,formulate widely acceptable policy guidelines as soon as possible,and avoid unilateral measures that may cause conflicts.展开更多
At the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly(UNGA)in 2020,China put forward the goal of peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060,a move to lead global response to ...At the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly(UNGA)in 2020,China put forward the goal of peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060,a move to lead global response to climate change that has attracted wide attention and hot comments at home and abroad.Therefore,it is of great practical significance and academic value to explore ways of achieving carbon peaking ahead of schedule and study the macroeconomic effect.This paper,based on Energy,Environment and Economy recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model(TECGE),a dynamic computable general equilibrium model,carries out a quantitative analysis of the effect of strengthening carbon peaking commitment on China's future macro economy.By setting up four scenarios,namely carbon peaking of 10.8 billion tons,10.7 billion tons,10.58 billion tons and 10.36 billion tons in 2030,2027,2025,and 2023,it examines the effects of carbon peaking ahead of schedule and carbon peaking in 2030 on macro economy.The findings show that,compared with the 2030 benchmark,the more ahead of schedule carbon peaking is achieved,the higher the carbon tax prices,and that though GDP and other macroeconomic variables,such as aggregate consumption,aggregate imports and exports decline,the share of the tertiary industry increases.That is,the more ahead of schedule carbon peaking is achieved,the more macroeconomic variables decline,and the more the share of the tertiary industry rises.This paper,using computable general equilibrium(CGE)model to conduct a quantitative analysis of the macroeconomic effect,makes policy recommendations for carbon peaking ahead of schedule and high-quality economic development.展开更多
The Dual Carbon strategy,which is aimed at achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,is one of China's major strategiesinthecomingperiod.Agriculture is both an important source of greenhouse gas and a huge ca...The Dual Carbon strategy,which is aimed at achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,is one of China's major strategiesinthecomingperiod.Agriculture is both an important source of greenhouse gas and a huge carbon sink system.To promote the Dual Carbon strategy,it is crucial for China to lay emphasis on green and low-carbon agricultural development.To achieve carbon peaking,agricultural carbonreduction and sequestration are significant means and haveegreat potential.Thisspaper firstly reviews the current situation of green and lowcarbon agricultural developmen.t.At present,the total agricultural carbon emissions in China are approaching the peak smoothly,and the proportion of carbon emissionsSgenerated by the use of such modern agricultural inputssas fertilizer and on-farm energy increases.Meanwhile,the operation of agricultural ecosystems in China demonstrates the strong capacity to absorb carbon.Then,the paper analyzes the main problems existing in green and low-carbon agricultural development,including excessive agricultural inputs and excessive consumption of fossil energy,the low utilization rate of agricultural resources,insufficient technical reserves for green and low-carbon agricultural development,and a weak supporting system.In the next part,the paper elaborates on the basic path and measures to realize green and low-carbon agriculturalddevelopment,such as strengthening the conservation of agricultural resources and improving the efficiency of resource utilization;enhancing the comprehensive treatment of agricultural non-point source pollution,realizing the reduction and efficiency of fertilizer and pesticide,resource utilization of agricultural wastes,and effective control of white agricultural pollution;cultivating,expanding and strengthening green and low-carbon agricultural industries,and greening the whole industrial chain of agricultural products from production,processing tocirculation;increasing scientific and technological innovation and building a scientific and technological support systems for green and low-carbon agricultural development.Finally,an institutional system to promote green and low-carbon agricultural development is constructed from the aspects of fiscal and taxation system,financial system,land management system,value realization mechanism of ecological products,and constraint and incentive mechanism,etc.This study provides a scientific basis for the further formulation of green and lowcarbon agricultural development policies and measures and relevant research.展开更多
Carbon dioxide is the main factor causing the greenhouse effect,and reducing carbon dioxide emissions is an important task in ecological civilization governance.The audit of outgoing officials'natural resource ass...Carbon dioxide is the main factor causing the greenhouse effect,and reducing carbon dioxide emissions is an important task in ecological civilization governance.The audit of outgoing officials'natural resource asset management is an audit of the natural resources within the jurisdiction of each province to ensure that senior officials implement policies to protect natural resources.Therefore,this paper empirically verifies the impact of audit outgoing officials'natural resource asset management on carbon emission reduction based on panel data of 297 prefecture-level cities in China from 2012 to 2021.The study finds that auditing outgoing officials'natural resource asset management can effectively reduce carbon dioxide emissions and achieve energy conservation and emission reduction.Further research finds that auditing outgoing officials'natural resource asset management can promote technological innovation and industrial structure optimization,providing a reference for the country to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and promote the green transformation and upgrading of social development.展开更多
This study aims to develop and expand a new perspective on ecological value realization(EVR)and provide policy recommendations for marine ecological value realization(MEVR)based on Carbon Trading.Currently,the immatur...This study aims to develop and expand a new perspective on ecological value realization(EVR)and provide policy recommendations for marine ecological value realization(MEVR)based on Carbon Trading.Currently,the immaturity of EVR calculation methods and difficulties in determining the price of ecological products pose significant challenges to ecological value trading.By employing mathematical models and logical reasoning,this study proposes a novel frame-work for EVR,illustrated through several diagrams.According to this frame-work,ecological value is not static but fluctuates with factors such as human well-being(HV)or gross domestic product(GDP).Therefore,ecological value should be determined by an exchange market rather than solely relying on hypothetical calculation methods.Consequently,carbon trading cases are crucial in under-standing ecological value.Based on the analysis of blue carbon(BC)trading cases,including the lack of international BC exchanges,challenges in carbon sink projects,and the Free Rider Effect,this paper identifies current issues in MEVR and BC trading in China.To address these challenges,we propose integrating carbon trading databases with evaluations of ecological protection and restora-tion projects,along with BC trading data,to calculate ecological value.Addi-tionally,we recommend increasing the supply of BC products in both national carbon trading markets and voluntary markets,promoting the internationaliza-tion of BC accounting,addressing the Free Rider Effect through government actions and market mechanisms,attracting more foreign investment in BC en-hancement projects,and formulating a BC enhancement plan during marine resource development.展开更多
In the context of global climate change,geosciences provide an important geological solution to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality,China’s geosciences and geological technologies can play an important role in solv...In the context of global climate change,geosciences provide an important geological solution to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality,China’s geosciences and geological technologies can play an important role in solving the problem of carbon neutrality.This paper discusses the main problems,opportunities,and challenges that can be solved by the participation of geosciences in carbon neutrality,as well as China’s response to them.The main scientific problems involved and the geological work carried out mainly fall into three categories:(1)Carbon emission reduction technology(natural gas hydrate,geothermal,hot dry rock,nuclear energy,hydropower,wind energy,solar energy,hydrogen energy);(2)carbon sequestration technology(carbon capture and storage,underground space utilization);(3)key minerals needed to support carbon neutralization(raw materials for energy transformation,carbon reduction technology).Therefore,geosciences and geological technologies are needed:First,actively participate in the development of green energy such as natural gas,geothermal energy,hydropower,hot dry rock,and key energy minerals,and develop exploration and exploitation technologies such as geothermal energy and natural gas;the second is to do a good job in geological support for new energy site selection,carry out an in-depth study on geotechnical feasibility and mitigation measures,and form the basis of relevant economic decisions to reduce costs and prevent geological disasters;the third is to develop and coordinate relevant departments of geosciences,organize and carry out strategic research on natural resources,carry out theoretical system research on global climate change and other issues under the guidance of earth system science theory,and coordinate frontier scientific information and advanced technological tools of various disciplines.The goal of carbon neutrality provides new opportunities and challenges for geosciences research.In the future,it is necessary to provide theoretical and technical support from various aspects,enhance the ability of climate adaptation,and support the realization of the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.展开更多
Based on the supply-side perspective,the improved STIRPAT model is applied to reveal the mechanisms of supply-side factors such as human,capital,technology,industrial synergy,institutions and economic growth on carbon...Based on the supply-side perspective,the improved STIRPAT model is applied to reveal the mechanisms of supply-side factors such as human,capital,technology,industrial synergy,institutions and economic growth on carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)through path analysis,and to forecast carbon emissions in the YRD from the baseline scenario,factor regulation scenario and integrated scenario to reach the peak.The results show that:(1)Jiangsu's high carbon emission pattern is the main reason for the YRD hindering the synergistic regulation of carbon emissions.(2)Human factors,institutional factors and economic growth factors can all contribute to carbon emissions in the YRD region,while technological and industrial factors can generally suppress carbon emissions in the YRD region.(3)Under the capital regulation scenario,the YRD region has the highest level of carbon emission synergy,with Jiangsu reaching its peak five years earlier.Under the balanced regulation scenario,the YRD region as a whole,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Anhui reach the peak as scheduled.展开更多
With the goal of“carbon peaking and carbon neutralization”,it is an inevitable trend for investing smart grid to promote the large-scale grid connection of renewable energy.Smart grid investment has a significant dr...With the goal of“carbon peaking and carbon neutralization”,it is an inevitable trend for investing smart grid to promote the large-scale grid connection of renewable energy.Smart grid investment has a significant driving effect(derivative value),and evaluating this value can help to more accurately grasp the external effects of smart grid investment and support the realization of industrial linkage value with power grid investment as the core.Therefore,by analyzing the characterization of the derivative value of smart grid driven by investment,this paper constructs the evaluation index system of the derivative value of smart grid investment including 11 indicators.Then,the hybrid evaluation model of the derivative value of smart grid investment is developed based on anti-entropy weight(AEW),level based weight assessment(LBWA),and measurement alternatives and ranking according to the compromise solution(MARCOS)techniques.The results of case analysis show that for SG investment,the value of sustainable development can better reflect its derivative value,and when smart grid performs poorly in promoting renewable energy consumption,improving primary energy efficiency,and improving its own fault resistance,the driving force of its investment for future sustainable development will decline significantly,making the grid investment lack derivative value.In addition,smart grid investment needs to pay attention to the economy of investment,which is an important guarantee to ensure that the power grid has sufficient and stable sources of investment funds.Finally,compared with three comparison models,the proposed hybrid multi-criteria decision-making(MCDM)model can better improve the decision-making efficiency on the premise of ensuring robustness.展开更多
Climate change is a common problem in human society.The Chinese government promises to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and strives to achieve carbon neutralization by 2060.The proposal of the goal of carbon peak...Climate change is a common problem in human society.The Chinese government promises to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and strives to achieve carbon neutralization by 2060.The proposal of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization has led China into the era of climate economy and set off a green change with both opportunities and challenges.On the basis of expounding the objectives and specific connotation of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutralization,this paper systematically discusses the main implementation path and the prospect of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutralization.China’s path to realizing carbon neutralization includes four directions:(1)in terms of carbon dioxide emission control:energy transformation path,energy conservation,and emission reduction path;(2)for increasing carbon sink:carbon capture,utilization,and storage path,ecological governance,and land greening path;(3)in key technology development:zero-carbon utilization,coal new energy coupling,carbon capture utilization and storage(CCUS),energy storage technology and other key technology paths required to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutralization;(4)from the angle of policy development:Formulate legal guarantees for the government to promote the carbon trading market;Formulate carbon emission standards for enterprises and increase publicity and education for individuals and society.Based on practicing the goal and path of carbon peak and carbon neutralization,China will vigorously develop low carbon and circular economy and promote green and high-quality economic development;speed up to enter the era of fossil resources and promoting energy transformation;accelerate the integrated innovation of green and low-carbon technologies and promote carbon neutrality.展开更多
As a kind of clean energy which creates little carbon dioxide, natural gas will play a key role in the process of achieving “Peak Carbon Dioxide Emission” and “Carbon Neutrality”. The Long-range Energy Alternative...As a kind of clean energy which creates little carbon dioxide, natural gas will play a key role in the process of achieving “Peak Carbon Dioxide Emission” and “Carbon Neutrality”. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP) model was improved by using new parameters including comprehensive energy efficiency and terminal effective energy consumption. The Back Propagation(BP) Neural Network–LEAP model was proposed to predict key data such as total primary energy consumption, energy mix, carbon emissions from energy consumption, and natural gas consumption in China. Moreover, natural gas production in China was forecasted by the production composition method. Finally, based on the forecast results of natural gas supply and demand, suggestions were put forward on the development of China’s natural gas industry under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”. The research results indicate that under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China’s primary energy consumption will peak(59.4×10^(8)tce) around 2035, carbon emissions from energy consumption will peak(103.4×10^(8)t) by 2025, and natural gas consumption will peak(6100×10^(8)m^(3)) around 2040, of which the largest increase will be contributed by the power sector and industrial sector. China’s peak natural gas production is about(2800–3400)×10^(8)m^(3), including(2100–2300)×10^(8)m^(3)conventional gas(including tight gas),(600–1050)×10^(8)m^(3)shale gas, and(150–220)×10^(8)m^(3)coalbed methane. Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the natural gas consumption and production of China will further increase, showing a great potential of the natural gas industry.展开更多
Urban construction land has relatively high human activity and high carbon emissions.Research on urban construction land prediction under carbon peak and neutrality goals(hereafter“dual carbon”goals)is important for...Urban construction land has relatively high human activity and high carbon emissions.Research on urban construction land prediction under carbon peak and neutrality goals(hereafter“dual carbon”goals)is important for territorial spatial planning.This study analyzed quantitative relationships between carbon emissions and urban construction land,and then modified the construction land demand prediction model.Thereafter,an integrated model for urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals was developed,where urban construction land suitability was modified based on carbon source and sink capacity of different land-use types.Using Guangzhou as a case study,the integrated model was validated and applied to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of its urban construction land during 2030–2060 under baseline development and“dual carbon”goals scenarios.The simulation results showed that Guangzhou’s urban construction land expanded rapidly until 2030,with the spatial pattern not showing an intensive development trend.Guangzhou’s urban construction land expansion slowed during 2030–2060,with an average annual growth rate of 0.2%,and a centralized spatial pattern trend.Under the“dual carbon”goal scenario,Guangzhou’s urban construction land evolved into a polycentric development pattern in 2030.Compared with the baseline development scenario,urban construction land expansion in Guangzhou during 2030–2060 is slower,with an average annual growth rate of only 0.1%,and the polycentric development pattern of urban construction land was more prominent.Furthermore,land maintenance and growth,that is,a carbon sink,is more obvious under the“dual carbon”goals scenario,with the forest land area nearly 10.6%higher than that under the baseline development scenario.The study of urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals provides a scientific decision-making support tool for territorial spatial planning,aiding in quantifying territorial spatial planning.展开更多
基金Supported by the Science and Technology Achievement Transformation Project of Jiangsu Province,China (BA2020001)Special Project for Fixed-source Air Pollution Prevention and Control Research of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment in 2020 (2020A060)。
文摘The situation of China’s power industry to achieve carbon peaking and risks and challenges for China’s power industry to cope with carbon peaking were analyzed, and then macro countermeasures for the power industry to cope with carbon peaking were proposed.
基金This paper is part of“A Study on the Spatiotemporal Evolution,Dilemma and Optimized Paths of Carbon Balance in Aba Prefecture Under the Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals”(ABKT2022065)a program funded by the Prefecture Social Science Fund Project of Aba Prefecture。
文摘Consolidating carbon sink capacity and reducing carbon pressure are important channels to achieve the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals actively yet prudently.In order to study the current situation of carbon pressure in the Northwestern Sichuan,we took the carbon pressure of the Aba Tibetan-Qiang autonomous prefecture(Aba prefecture)as an example and used the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)approach to measure the carbon emissions,carbon uptake,and the carbon balance index(CBI)of each county-level city in Aba prefecture from 2012 to 2020.The study found that:(a)There was a continuous trend of declining carbon emissions,increased carbon uptake,and decreased CBI in Aba prefecture during the sample period,but there is a large variability among county-level cities;(b)Aba prefecture differs in the spatiotemporal distribution of carbon emissions,carbon uptake,and CBI.Based on the research results,we propose several optimized paths for alleviating the current carbon pressure situation in the Northwestern Sichuan.
文摘With the goal of achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality,this paper studies the carbon effect of agricultural land remediation.In this paper,the carbon effect mechanism and calculation method of land consolidation,the proposed national carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,and the requirements put forward by agricultural land consolidation followed were analyzed.Then,the application research on the carbon effect accounting of agricultural land consolidation was conducted.Besides,the application process of carbon effect accounting of land consolidation with the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Therefore,we hope this study will play an effective role to advance the carbon effect research in the regulation of agricultural land.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71521002,72104025,and 72004011)China’s National Key Research and Development(R&D)Program(2016YFA0602603)China Post-doctoral Science Foundation(2021M690014)。
文摘The vision of reaching a carbon peak and achieving carbon neutrality is guiding the low-carbon transition of China’s socioeconomic system.Currently,a research gap remains in the existing literature in terms of studies that systematically identify opportunities to achieve carbon neutrality.To address this gap,this study comprehensively collates and investigates 1105 published research studies regarding carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.In doing so,the principles of development in this area are quantitively analyzed from a space–time perspective.At the same time,this study traces shifts and alterations in research hotspots.This systematic review summarizes the priorities and standpoints of key industries on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.Furthermore,with an emphasis on five key management science topics,the scientific concerns and strategic demands for these two carbon emission-reduction goals are clarified.The paper ends with theoretical insights on and practical countermeasures for actions,priority tasks,and policy measures that will enable China to achieve a carbon-neutral future.This study provides a complete picture of the research status on carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,as well as the research directions worth investigating in this field,which are crucial to the formulation of carbon peak and carbon neutrality policies.
文摘"Promoting green development and realizing the harmonious coexistence of man and nature" is an important goal of the countrys "14 Five Year Plan". Whether this goal can be achieved will directly affect the transformation of Chinas economic and social development mode. The focus of this paper is based on the analysis of the current situation and challenges of green finance under the background of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization. On this basis, it puts forward some reference measures for the future development of green finance in China to help China achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization as soon as possible.
基金The National Social Science Fund of China(22XGL002)。
文摘In 2022,Chinese policymakers emphasized the importance of leveraging the country's domestic energy resource endowments and implementing a phased and well-planned carbon peaking strategy by following the principle of"establishing the new before phasing out the old".To explore the carbon reduction potential and path optimization in resource-based regions undergoing energy structure adjustments,this study employed the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP)to simulate and analyze both a baseline scenario and a comprehensive policy intervention scenario from 2021 to 2050.This study focused on the typical resource-based region of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and developed a customized"LEAP-Inner Mongolia"model.The findings reveal that:(1)Under the comprehensive scenario,energy demand is notably reduced by 2050,with total carbon emissions cut by 70.96%compared to the baseline scenario;(2)The Environmental Kuznets Curve(EKC)analysis suggests a persistent rise in emissions under the baseline scenario,while a carbon peak is achieved as early as 2029 under the integrated scenario;and(3)There are limitations of isolated policy instruments so a synergistic approach that integrates power generation structure optimization with improvements in energy efficiency is necessary.Accordingly,we propose a multi-pronged policy portfolio that includes the synchronized development of clean energy and efficient end-use systems,industrial low-carbon transformation,accelerated adoption of new energy vehicles,and improved inter-regional coordination.These recommendations can offer systemic insights for guiding low-carbon transitions in resource-based areas.
文摘First,a brief introduction is made to the four basic judgments and understandings of the goals of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality."Then,an in-depth elaboration is provided on the eight major strategies for achieving the goals of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,"including conservation and efficiency priority,energy security,non-fossil energy substitution,reelectrification,resource recycling,carbon sequestration,digitalization and cooperation between countries.Next,eight major implementation paths for achieving the goals of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"are discussed in detail,including industrial restructuring;building a clean,low-carbon,safe and_efficient energy system,and renewing the understanding of China's energy resource endowment;accelerating the construction of a new-type power system with a gradually growing proportion of new energy,and realizing the"possible triangle"of highquality energy system development;utilizing electrification and deep decarbonization technologies to promote the orderly peaking and gradual neutralization of carbon emissions in the industrial sector;promoting the lowcarbon transition of transportation vehicles to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the transportation sector;focusing on breaking through key green building technologies to achieve zero carbon emissions from building electricity and heat;providing a strong technical support for carbon removal to achieve carbon neutrality;accelerating the construction of the integrated planning and assessment mechanism for pollution and carbon reduction,establishing a sound strategy,planning,policy and action system,and optimizing the carbon trading system.Afterwards,it is particularly pointed out that the realization of the goals of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"cannot be separated from the support of scitech innovation.Finally,it is stressed that carbon neutrality is not the end,but an important milestone.If viewed from the perspective of future energy,the significance and historical status of the goals of"carbon peaking and carbon neutrality"will be more understandable.
基金the phased results of the Research on the Political Economy of Building a Trade Power in the New Era(No.20BJL046),a general project supported by the National Social Science Fund of China,and funded by the special funds of the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities.
文摘The successively proposed carbon peaking and carbon neutrality have not only set new goals for the green and low-carbon development of China's economy,but also demonstrated China's further determination and sense of responsibility for a greater contribution to address global climate change.Considering the importance of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality in the course of achieving the Second Centenary Goal(1949-2049),it is necessary for China to make scientific planning for the roadmap of carbon emission reduction,carbon peaking and carbon neutrality to ensure building a great modern socialist country under carbon constraints.More specifically,the optimization and realignment of energy structure,industrial structure,production and consumption structure,the rational planning of afforestation,and the vigorous development of global carbon emissions trading will be the core strategies for boosting green and low-carbon development of China's economy.
文摘Based on the full consideration of both domestic and global environments and conditions,the adherence to the conviction that lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets,and the comprehensive weighing of pros and cons,the Chinese government has made a major strategic decision to achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,which is crucial to the overall green transformation of the economy and society and the long-term benefits of the Chinese nation.With the new energy revolution and energy mix diversification driven by the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals,nonfossil energy sources centered on photovoltaic energy will gradually dominate the energy mix,while the status of electricity and hydrogen energy will be significantly enhanced and the consumption of coal and petroleum will decline significantly.Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals are both challenges and opportunities for China.Specific challenges are embodied in the large pressure of economic and energy restructuring,the rising manufacturing costs,the difficulties in withdrawing coal-fired power stations,the possibility of unstable grid operations due to large-scale integration of photovoltaic and wind power into the power distribution network,and the supply risks of key metals,while specific opportunities are emerging in the strong competitiveness of photovoltaic and wind power equipment,lower dependence on foreign petroleum and gas supply and accelerated low-carbon green transformation.China should strengthen the top-level design of the path to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,encourage innovation of green low-carbon technologies,accelerate economic and energy restructuring,strictly restrict the construction of new high-emission and energy-intensive projects,and steadily promote the adjustment and withdrawal of the existing high-emission and energy-intensive projects.
基金phased result of the major project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China"Key Issues Regarding the Science of Management and Policy Study amid Green and Low-carbon Transition"(No.71690243).
文摘China has always tried to maintain multilateralism and advocated working together to deal with global climate change through multilateral mechanisms.Although China's announcement to peak its carbon emissions by 2030 comes as no surprise,its commitment to carbon neutrality does.As the period between its carbon peaking and carbon neutrality is far shorter than that in the developed countries,China's economic and energy structures need to be adjusted toward the low-carbon and carbon-free end with unprecedented efforts.To that end,China should define the responsibilities of local authorities and industrial entities to promote the orderly accomplishment of carbon peaking in all regions and industries.To supply the huge investments needed to achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,China has an urgent need to accelerate the development of green finance and a national carbon emissions trading market,guide the rational allocation of resources,and channel resources to eco-friendly projects for green and low-carbon development.At the same time,China and the international community should strengthen dialogue and coordination,promote international cooperation on the way to carbon neutrality,formulate widely acceptable policy guidelines as soon as possible,and avoid unilateral measures that may cause conflicts.
基金the research progress and outcomes of the national key research and development program"Simulation Research on China's Climate Change Response and Path of Coordinated Governance of Economic and Social Environment"(No.2018YFC1509006).
文摘At the 75th session of the United Nations General Assembly(UNGA)in 2020,China put forward the goal of peaking carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060,a move to lead global response to climate change that has attracted wide attention and hot comments at home and abroad.Therefore,it is of great practical significance and academic value to explore ways of achieving carbon peaking ahead of schedule and study the macroeconomic effect.This paper,based on Energy,Environment and Economy recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model(TECGE),a dynamic computable general equilibrium model,carries out a quantitative analysis of the effect of strengthening carbon peaking commitment on China's future macro economy.By setting up four scenarios,namely carbon peaking of 10.8 billion tons,10.7 billion tons,10.58 billion tons and 10.36 billion tons in 2030,2027,2025,and 2023,it examines the effects of carbon peaking ahead of schedule and carbon peaking in 2030 on macro economy.The findings show that,compared with the 2030 benchmark,the more ahead of schedule carbon peaking is achieved,the higher the carbon tax prices,and that though GDP and other macroeconomic variables,such as aggregate consumption,aggregate imports and exports decline,the share of the tertiary industry increases.That is,the more ahead of schedule carbon peaking is achieved,the more macroeconomic variables decline,and the more the share of the tertiary industry rises.This paper,using computable general equilibrium(CGE)model to conduct a quantitative analysis of the macroeconomic effect,makes policy recommendations for carbon peaking ahead of schedule and high-quality economic development.
基金This paper is supported by the Major Project of National Social Science Fund of China(20AZD091).
文摘The Dual Carbon strategy,which is aimed at achieving carbon peaking and carbon neutrality,is one of China's major strategiesinthecomingperiod.Agriculture is both an important source of greenhouse gas and a huge carbon sink system.To promote the Dual Carbon strategy,it is crucial for China to lay emphasis on green and low-carbon agricultural development.To achieve carbon peaking,agricultural carbonreduction and sequestration are significant means and haveegreat potential.Thisspaper firstly reviews the current situation of green and lowcarbon agricultural developmen.t.At present,the total agricultural carbon emissions in China are approaching the peak smoothly,and the proportion of carbon emissionsSgenerated by the use of such modern agricultural inputssas fertilizer and on-farm energy increases.Meanwhile,the operation of agricultural ecosystems in China demonstrates the strong capacity to absorb carbon.Then,the paper analyzes the main problems existing in green and low-carbon agricultural development,including excessive agricultural inputs and excessive consumption of fossil energy,the low utilization rate of agricultural resources,insufficient technical reserves for green and low-carbon agricultural development,and a weak supporting system.In the next part,the paper elaborates on the basic path and measures to realize green and low-carbon agriculturalddevelopment,such as strengthening the conservation of agricultural resources and improving the efficiency of resource utilization;enhancing the comprehensive treatment of agricultural non-point source pollution,realizing the reduction and efficiency of fertilizer and pesticide,resource utilization of agricultural wastes,and effective control of white agricultural pollution;cultivating,expanding and strengthening green and low-carbon agricultural industries,and greening the whole industrial chain of agricultural products from production,processing tocirculation;increasing scientific and technological innovation and building a scientific and technological support systems for green and low-carbon agricultural development.Finally,an institutional system to promote green and low-carbon agricultural development is constructed from the aspects of fiscal and taxation system,financial system,land management system,value realization mechanism of ecological products,and constraint and incentive mechanism,etc.This study provides a scientific basis for the further formulation of green and lowcarbon agricultural development policies and measures and relevant research.
基金supported by the National Pre-Research Project of Hebei GEO University(Grant No.KY2024YB19)the 2023-2024 Hebei Higher Education Teaching Reform Research and Practice Project(Grant No.2023GJJG302)+4 种基金Regional System Research Center of Hebei GEO University(Grant No.QYZDYJZX202525)Smart Financial Technology Innovation Center of Hebei Province(Grant No.HBZX202401004)Hebei Geo University graduate course construction project in 2025(Grant No.YKSZ2025006)Major Research Project on Humanities and Social Sciences in Colleges and Universities of Hebei Province(Grant No.ZD202418)Teaching Case of Hebei GEO University MBA Case Center in 2025(Grant No.AL202511).
文摘Carbon dioxide is the main factor causing the greenhouse effect,and reducing carbon dioxide emissions is an important task in ecological civilization governance.The audit of outgoing officials'natural resource asset management is an audit of the natural resources within the jurisdiction of each province to ensure that senior officials implement policies to protect natural resources.Therefore,this paper empirically verifies the impact of audit outgoing officials'natural resource asset management on carbon emission reduction based on panel data of 297 prefecture-level cities in China from 2012 to 2021.The study finds that auditing outgoing officials'natural resource asset management can effectively reduce carbon dioxide emissions and achieve energy conservation and emission reduction.Further research finds that auditing outgoing officials'natural resource asset management can promote technological innovation and industrial structure optimization,providing a reference for the country to achieve carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals and promote the green transformation and upgrading of social development.
基金Fund of Laboratory of Marine Ecological Conservation and Restoration,Ministry of Natural Resources/Fujian Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Ecological Conservation and Restoration,Grant/Award Number:EPR2023010Fund of Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Survey Technology and Application,Ministry of Natural Resources,Grant/Award Number:MESTA-2022-D003。
文摘This study aims to develop and expand a new perspective on ecological value realization(EVR)and provide policy recommendations for marine ecological value realization(MEVR)based on Carbon Trading.Currently,the immaturity of EVR calculation methods and difficulties in determining the price of ecological products pose significant challenges to ecological value trading.By employing mathematical models and logical reasoning,this study proposes a novel frame-work for EVR,illustrated through several diagrams.According to this frame-work,ecological value is not static but fluctuates with factors such as human well-being(HV)or gross domestic product(GDP).Therefore,ecological value should be determined by an exchange market rather than solely relying on hypothetical calculation methods.Consequently,carbon trading cases are crucial in under-standing ecological value.Based on the analysis of blue carbon(BC)trading cases,including the lack of international BC exchanges,challenges in carbon sink projects,and the Free Rider Effect,this paper identifies current issues in MEVR and BC trading in China.To address these challenges,we propose integrating carbon trading databases with evaluations of ecological protection and restora-tion projects,along with BC trading data,to calculate ecological value.Addi-tionally,we recommend increasing the supply of BC products in both national carbon trading markets and voluntary markets,promoting the internationaliza-tion of BC accounting,addressing the Free Rider Effect through government actions and market mechanisms,attracting more foreign investment in BC en-hancement projects,and formulating a BC enhancement plan during marine resource development.
基金This study was supported by the project of China Geological Survey on a systematic assessment of ecological protection and natural resources utilization(DD20211413)。
文摘In the context of global climate change,geosciences provide an important geological solution to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality,China’s geosciences and geological technologies can play an important role in solving the problem of carbon neutrality.This paper discusses the main problems,opportunities,and challenges that can be solved by the participation of geosciences in carbon neutrality,as well as China’s response to them.The main scientific problems involved and the geological work carried out mainly fall into three categories:(1)Carbon emission reduction technology(natural gas hydrate,geothermal,hot dry rock,nuclear energy,hydropower,wind energy,solar energy,hydrogen energy);(2)carbon sequestration technology(carbon capture and storage,underground space utilization);(3)key minerals needed to support carbon neutralization(raw materials for energy transformation,carbon reduction technology).Therefore,geosciences and geological technologies are needed:First,actively participate in the development of green energy such as natural gas,geothermal energy,hydropower,hot dry rock,and key energy minerals,and develop exploration and exploitation technologies such as geothermal energy and natural gas;the second is to do a good job in geological support for new energy site selection,carry out an in-depth study on geotechnical feasibility and mitigation measures,and form the basis of relevant economic decisions to reduce costs and prevent geological disasters;the third is to develop and coordinate relevant departments of geosciences,organize and carry out strategic research on natural resources,carry out theoretical system research on global climate change and other issues under the guidance of earth system science theory,and coordinate frontier scientific information and advanced technological tools of various disciplines.The goal of carbon neutrality provides new opportunities and challenges for geosciences research.In the future,it is necessary to provide theoretical and technical support from various aspects,enhance the ability of climate adaptation,and support the realization of the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.
文摘Based on the supply-side perspective,the improved STIRPAT model is applied to reveal the mechanisms of supply-side factors such as human,capital,technology,industrial synergy,institutions and economic growth on carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)through path analysis,and to forecast carbon emissions in the YRD from the baseline scenario,factor regulation scenario and integrated scenario to reach the peak.The results show that:(1)Jiangsu's high carbon emission pattern is the main reason for the YRD hindering the synergistic regulation of carbon emissions.(2)Human factors,institutional factors and economic growth factors can all contribute to carbon emissions in the YRD region,while technological and industrial factors can generally suppress carbon emissions in the YRD region.(3)Under the capital regulation scenario,the YRD region has the highest level of carbon emission synergy,with Jiangsu reaching its peak five years earlier.Under the balanced regulation scenario,the YRD region as a whole,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Anhui reach the peak as scheduled.
文摘With the goal of“carbon peaking and carbon neutralization”,it is an inevitable trend for investing smart grid to promote the large-scale grid connection of renewable energy.Smart grid investment has a significant driving effect(derivative value),and evaluating this value can help to more accurately grasp the external effects of smart grid investment and support the realization of industrial linkage value with power grid investment as the core.Therefore,by analyzing the characterization of the derivative value of smart grid driven by investment,this paper constructs the evaluation index system of the derivative value of smart grid investment including 11 indicators.Then,the hybrid evaluation model of the derivative value of smart grid investment is developed based on anti-entropy weight(AEW),level based weight assessment(LBWA),and measurement alternatives and ranking according to the compromise solution(MARCOS)techniques.The results of case analysis show that for SG investment,the value of sustainable development can better reflect its derivative value,and when smart grid performs poorly in promoting renewable energy consumption,improving primary energy efficiency,and improving its own fault resistance,the driving force of its investment for future sustainable development will decline significantly,making the grid investment lack derivative value.In addition,smart grid investment needs to pay attention to the economy of investment,which is an important guarantee to ensure that the power grid has sufficient and stable sources of investment funds.Finally,compared with three comparison models,the proposed hybrid multi-criteria decision-making(MCDM)model can better improve the decision-making efficiency on the premise of ensuring robustness.
基金This study was supported by the project of China Geological Survey(DD20211413,Comprehensive Evaluation of Ecological Protection and Utilization of Natural Resources).
文摘Climate change is a common problem in human society.The Chinese government promises to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and strives to achieve carbon neutralization by 2060.The proposal of the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization has led China into the era of climate economy and set off a green change with both opportunities and challenges.On the basis of expounding the objectives and specific connotation of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutralization,this paper systematically discusses the main implementation path and the prospect of China’s carbon peak and carbon neutralization.China’s path to realizing carbon neutralization includes four directions:(1)in terms of carbon dioxide emission control:energy transformation path,energy conservation,and emission reduction path;(2)for increasing carbon sink:carbon capture,utilization,and storage path,ecological governance,and land greening path;(3)in key technology development:zero-carbon utilization,coal new energy coupling,carbon capture utilization and storage(CCUS),energy storage technology and other key technology paths required to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutralization;(4)from the angle of policy development:Formulate legal guarantees for the government to promote the carbon trading market;Formulate carbon emission standards for enterprises and increase publicity and education for individuals and society.Based on practicing the goal and path of carbon peak and carbon neutralization,China will vigorously develop low carbon and circular economy and promote green and high-quality economic development;speed up to enter the era of fossil resources and promoting energy transformation;accelerate the integrated innovation of green and low-carbon technologies and promote carbon neutrality.
基金Supported by Project of Science and Technology of PetroChina (2021DJ17,2021DJ21)。
文摘As a kind of clean energy which creates little carbon dioxide, natural gas will play a key role in the process of achieving “Peak Carbon Dioxide Emission” and “Carbon Neutrality”. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System(LEAP) model was improved by using new parameters including comprehensive energy efficiency and terminal effective energy consumption. The Back Propagation(BP) Neural Network–LEAP model was proposed to predict key data such as total primary energy consumption, energy mix, carbon emissions from energy consumption, and natural gas consumption in China. Moreover, natural gas production in China was forecasted by the production composition method. Finally, based on the forecast results of natural gas supply and demand, suggestions were put forward on the development of China’s natural gas industry under the background of “Dual Carbon Targets”. The research results indicate that under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China’s primary energy consumption will peak(59.4×10^(8)tce) around 2035, carbon emissions from energy consumption will peak(103.4×10^(8)t) by 2025, and natural gas consumption will peak(6100×10^(8)m^(3)) around 2040, of which the largest increase will be contributed by the power sector and industrial sector. China’s peak natural gas production is about(2800–3400)×10^(8)m^(3), including(2100–2300)×10^(8)m^(3)conventional gas(including tight gas),(600–1050)×10^(8)m^(3)shale gas, and(150–220)×10^(8)m^(3)coalbed methane. Under the background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, the natural gas consumption and production of China will further increase, showing a great potential of the natural gas industry.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41971233。
文摘Urban construction land has relatively high human activity and high carbon emissions.Research on urban construction land prediction under carbon peak and neutrality goals(hereafter“dual carbon”goals)is important for territorial spatial planning.This study analyzed quantitative relationships between carbon emissions and urban construction land,and then modified the construction land demand prediction model.Thereafter,an integrated model for urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals was developed,where urban construction land suitability was modified based on carbon source and sink capacity of different land-use types.Using Guangzhou as a case study,the integrated model was validated and applied to simulate the spatiotemporal dynamics of its urban construction land during 2030–2060 under baseline development and“dual carbon”goals scenarios.The simulation results showed that Guangzhou’s urban construction land expanded rapidly until 2030,with the spatial pattern not showing an intensive development trend.Guangzhou’s urban construction land expansion slowed during 2030–2060,with an average annual growth rate of 0.2%,and a centralized spatial pattern trend.Under the“dual carbon”goal scenario,Guangzhou’s urban construction land evolved into a polycentric development pattern in 2030.Compared with the baseline development scenario,urban construction land expansion in Guangzhou during 2030–2060 is slower,with an average annual growth rate of only 0.1%,and the polycentric development pattern of urban construction land was more prominent.Furthermore,land maintenance and growth,that is,a carbon sink,is more obvious under the“dual carbon”goals scenario,with the forest land area nearly 10.6%higher than that under the baseline development scenario.The study of urban construction land demand prediction and spatial pattern simulation under“dual carbon”goals provides a scientific decision-making support tool for territorial spatial planning,aiding in quantifying territorial spatial planning.
