At the beginning of 2025,China’s national carbon market carbon price trend exhibited a continuous unilateral downward trajectory,representing a departure from the overall steady upward trend in carbon prices since th...At the beginning of 2025,China’s national carbon market carbon price trend exhibited a continuous unilateral downward trajectory,representing a departure from the overall steady upward trend in carbon prices since the carbon market launched in 2021.The analysis suggests that the primary reason for the recent decline in carbon prices is the reversal of supply and demand dynamics in the carbon market,with increased quota supply amid a sluggish economy.It is expected that downward pressure on carbon prices will persist in the short term,but with more industries being included and continued policy optimization and improvement,a rise in China’s medium-to long-term carbon prices is highly probable.Recommendations for enterprises involved in carbon asset operations and management:first,refining carbon asset reserves and trading strategies;second,accelerating internal CCER project development;third,exploring carbon financial instrument applications;fourth,establishing and improving internal carbon pricing mechanisms;fifth,proactively planning for new industry inclusion.展开更多
With the European Union(EU)introducing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM),accurately forecasting EU carbon price is crucial for exporters to estimate export costs,plan low-carbon strategies,and mitigate trad...With the European Union(EU)introducing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM),accurately forecasting EU carbon price is crucial for exporters to estimate export costs,plan low-carbon strategies,and mitigate trade risks.In the petroleum sector,carbon pricing directly influences upstream investment returns and carbon intensity targets,thereby closely linking emissions markets with fossil energy strategies.Existing models often fail to fully capture the nonlinear,non-stationary nature of carbon prices and their dependence on external factors.This study proposes a novel hybrid framework that combines improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise(ICEEMDAN)with gated recurrent unit-convolutional neural network-long short-term memory network-Bayesian optimization(GRU-CNN-LSTM-BO).Empirical results based on the EU emissions trading system(ETS)market demonstrate that the proposed model significantly improves forecasting accuracy.Among all experiments,the proposed GRU-CNN-LSTM-BO framework achieves the best performance,yielding the lowest MAE(1.3872),RMSE(1.7038),MAPE(0.0166),and MSPE(0.0004),as well as the highest R2(0.9400).Compared to all benchmark models,the GRU-CNN-LSTM-BO model achieves reductions in MAE and RMSE ranging from 5.38%to 63.65%and 8.97%to 64.41%,respectively.To further validate the generalization ability and predictive performance of the proposed model,it is also applied to China's ETS.The results show that the GRU-CNN-LSTM-BO model also performs very well in China's ETS.展开更多
To address the issues of unclear carbon responsibility attribution,insufficient renewable energy absorption,and simplistic carbon trading mechanisms in integrated energy systems,this paper proposes an electricheat-hyd...To address the issues of unclear carbon responsibility attribution,insufficient renewable energy absorption,and simplistic carbon trading mechanisms in integrated energy systems,this paper proposes an electricheat-hydrogen integrated energy system(EHH-IES)optimal scheduling model considering carbon emission stream(CES)and wind-solar accommodation.First,the CES theory is introduced to quantify the carbon emission intensity of each energy conversion device and transmission branch by defining carbon emission rate,branch carbon intensity,and node carbon potential,realizing accurate tracking of carbon flow in the process of multi-energy coupling.Second,a stepped carbon pricing mechanism is established to dynamically adjust carbon trading costs based on the deviation between actual carbon emissions and initial quotas,strengthening the emission reduction incentive.Finally,a lowcarbon economic dispatch model is constructed with the objectives of minimizing operation cost,carbon trading cost,wind-solar curtailment penalty cost,and energy loss.Simulation results show that compared with the traditional economic dispatch scheme 3,the proposed schemel reduces carbon emissions by 53.97%and wind-solar curtailment by 68.89%with a 16.10%increase in total cost.This verifies that the model can effectively improve clean energy utilization and reduce carbon emissions,achieving low-carbon economic operation of EHH-IES,with CES theory ensuring precise carbon flow tracking across multi-energy links.展开更多
The UK government implements carbon price floor to provide long-term incentive to invest in low-carbon technology, thus, fossil-fuel power plants have to face increasing carbon price. This report addresses the effect ...The UK government implements carbon price floor to provide long-term incentive to invest in low-carbon technology, thus, fossil-fuel power plants have to face increasing carbon price. This report addresses the effect of carbon price floor on levelised cost of gas-fired generation technology through the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) ap-proach with the estimation of carbon price floor. Finally, the comparison of levelised cost of electricity for all generation technology in the UK will be shown and discussed.展开更多
Under the pressure of sustained growth in energy consumption in China,the implementation of a carbon pricing mechanism is an effective economic policy measure for promoting emission reduction,as well as a hotspot of r...Under the pressure of sustained growth in energy consumption in China,the implementation of a carbon pricing mechanism is an effective economic policy measure for promoting emission reduction,as well as a hotspot of research among scholars and policy makers.In this paper,the effects of carbon prices on Beijing's economy are analyzed using input-output tables.The carbon price costs are levied in accordance with the products'embodied carbon emission.By calculation,given the carbon price rate of 10 RMB/t-CO_2,the total carbon costs of Beijing account for approximately 0.22-0.40%of its gross revenue the same year.Among all industries,construction bears the largest carbon cost Among export sectors,the coal mining and washing industry has much higher export carbon price intensity than other industries.Apart from traditional energy-intensive industries,tertiary industry,which accounts for more than 70%of Beijing's economy,also bears a major carbon cost because of its large economic size.However,from 2007 to 2010,adjustment of the investment structure has reduced the emission intensity in investment sectors,contributing to the reduction of overall emissions and carbon price intensity.展开更多
In the pursuit of carbon peaking and neutrality goals,multi-energy parks,as major energy consumers and carbon emitters,urgently require low-carbon operational strategies.This paper proposes an electricity-carbon syner...In the pursuit of carbon peaking and neutrality goals,multi-energy parks,as major energy consumers and carbon emitters,urgently require low-carbon operational strategies.This paper proposes an electricity-carbon synergy-driven optimization method for the low-carbon operation ofmulti-energy parks.Themethod integratesmultienergy complementary scheduling with a tiered carbon trading mechanism to balance operational security,economic efficiency,and environmental objectives.A mixed-integer linear programming model is developed to characterize the coupling relationships and dynamic behaviors of key equipment,including photovoltaic systems,ground-source heat pumps,thermal storage electric boilers,combined heat and power units,and electrical energy storage systems.Furthermore,a tiered carbon trading model is established that incorporates carbon quota allocation and tiered carbon pricing to internalize carbon costs and discourage high-emission practices.Multi-scenario comparative analyses demonstrate that the electricity-carbon synergy scenario achieves a 42.64%reduction in carbon emissions compared to economy-oriented operation,while limiting the increase in operational costs to 20.85%.The carbon-prioritized scenario further reduces emissions by 9.7%,underscoring the inhibitory effect of the tiered carbon pricing mechanism on highcarbon activities.Sensitivity analyses confirm the model’s robustness against fluctuations in energy load,uncertainty in renewable generation,and variations in carbon price.This optimization method provides theoretical support for multi-energy coordinated scheduling and carbon responsibility allocation in industrial parks,offering valuable insights for promoting green transformation initiatives.展开更多
This study uses TIMES model to assess Indonesia’s power sector’s carbon price impact from 2020 to 2050 and the price needed by 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement NDC target.Four scenarios are used to model the impact ...This study uses TIMES model to assess Indonesia’s power sector’s carbon price impact from 2020 to 2050 and the price needed by 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement NDC target.Four scenarios are used to model the impact of carbon price up to 2050:no carbon price,Indonesia’s current price of USD 2.02/tCO_(2)e,ICPF middle-and high-income countries,USD 50/tCO_(2)e and USD 75/tCO_(2)e.Four price scenarios-10,25,35,and 150 USD/tCO_(2)e-are added to better understand the carbon price’s effects.As carbon prices rise,installed capacity and power generation will shift to lower-carbon technology.Ultracritical coal,gas-fired,solar,geothermal,and hydropower plants will replace subcritical coal.Investment,fixed,and variable costs would exceed BaU with a higher carbon price.2.02 to 25 USD/tCO_(2)e can start the coal-to-gas switch but not significantly change the generation profile.The generation will change significantly above 35 USD/tCO_(2)e.Carbon emissions peak lower with rising carbon prices.USD 25 carbon price reduces emissions significantly;a carbon price below that is costly and ineffective.Indonesian Law No.16 of 2016 ratified the Paris Agreement NDC,committing Indonesia to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 29%by 2030 or 41%with international assistance.Energy sector emissions need to decrease by 11%for a 29 percent reduction and 14%for a 41 percent reduction.A 29%reduction requires USD 39.65/tCO_(2)e carbon price,while a 41%reduction requires USD 43.78/tCO_(2)e.These prices are still within the reasonable ICPF price limit for Indonesia to approach the middle-income country price floor.展开更多
Efforts to provide alternative resources and technologies for producing liquid fuel have recently been intensified.Different levels of dependence on oil imports and carbon prices have a significant impact on the compo...Efforts to provide alternative resources and technologies for producing liquid fuel have recently been intensified.Different levels of dependence on oil imports and carbon prices have a significant impact on the composition of the cost-minimizing portfolio of technologies.Considering such factors,how should China plan its future liquid fuel industry?The model for supporting the technology portfolio and capacity configuration that minimizes the total system cost until 2045 is described in this study.The results obtained for different carbon prices and levels of dependence on oil import indicate that the oil-to-liquid fuel(OTL)will remain dominant in China's liquid fuel industry over the next three decades.If the carbon price is low,the coal-to-liquid fuel(CTL)process is competitive.For a high carbon price,the biomass-to-liquid fuel(BTL)technology expands more rapidly.The results also reveal that developing the BTL and CTL can effectively reduce the oil-import dependency;moreover,a high carbon price can lead to the CTL being replaced with the low-carbon technology(e.g.,BTL).Improvement in energy raw material conversion and application of CO_(2) removal technologies are also effective methods to control carbon emissions for achieving the carbon emission goals and ultimately emission reduction targets.展开更多
As the largest source of carbon emissions in China,the thermal power industry is the only emission-controlled industry in the first national carbon market compliance cycle.Its conversion to clean-energy generation tec...As the largest source of carbon emissions in China,the thermal power industry is the only emission-controlled industry in the first national carbon market compliance cycle.Its conversion to clean-energy generation technologies is also an important means of reducing CO_(2)emissions and achieving the carbon peak and carbon neutral commitments.This study used fractional Brownian motion to describe the energy-switching cost and constructed a stochastic optimization model on carbon allowance(CA)trading volume and emission-reduction strategy during compliance period with the Hurst exponent and volatility coefficient in the model estimated.We defined the optimal compliance cost of thermal power enterprises as the form of the unique solution of the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation by combining the dynamic optimization principle and the fractional It?’s formula.In this manner,we obtained the models for optimal emission reduction and equilibrium CA price.Our numerical analysis revealed that,within a compliance period of 2021–2030,the optimal reductions and desired equilibrium prices of CAs changed concurrently,with an increasing trend annually in different peak-year scenarios.Furthermore,sensitivity analysis revealed that the energy price indirectly affected the equilibrium CA price by influencing the Hurst exponent,the depreciation rate positively impacted the CA price,and increasing the initial CA reduced the optimal reduction and the CA price.Our findings can be used to develop optimal emission-reduction strategies for thermal power enterprises and carbon pricing in the carbon market.展开更多
The international community has taken extensive actions to achieve carbon neutrality and sustainable development with the intensification of global warming and climate change.China has also carried out a long-term lay...The international community has taken extensive actions to achieve carbon neutrality and sustainable development with the intensification of global warming and climate change.China has also carried out a long-term layout,setting the goal of achieving a carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.In 2021,with the official launch of a unified national carbon emissions trading market,China’s nationwide carbon emissions trading kicked off.Carbon emission trading is an important policy tool for China’s carbon peak and carbon-neutral action and an essential part of the country’s promotion of a comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society.This study uses a VAR(Vector Autoregressive)model to analyze the influencing factors of the Beijing carbon emissions trading price from January 2014 to December 2019.The study found that coal prices have the most significant impact on Beijing’s carbon emissions trading prices.Oil prices,industrial development indexes,and AQI(Air Quality Index)impacted Beijing’s carbon emissions trading prices.In contrast,natural gas prices and economic indexes have the most negligible impact.These findings will help decision-makers determine a reasonable price for carbon emissions trading and contribute to the market’s healthy development.展开更多
With the in-depth advancement of China’s dual carbon goals,the national carbon emissions trading market has become a core policy tool for achieving emission reduction targets.However,the current carbon market remains...With the in-depth advancement of China’s dual carbon goals,the national carbon emissions trading market has become a core policy tool for achieving emission reduction targets.However,the current carbon market remains predominantly spot-based,facing challenges such as limited financial products,restricted market participants,immature carbon pricing mechanisms,and insufficient liquidity,which constrain its resource allocation and risk management functions.Based on the spirit of the“Opinions on Promoting Green Low-Carbon Transformation and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction”issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council,this paper focuses on the challenges faced during the implementation of the dual control system for carbon emissions in the“Fifteenth Five-Year Plan”period,with emphasis on analyzing the development bottlenecks of the carbon market.It proposes accelerating the launch of carbon futures,carbon options and other derivatives,expanding the scope of financial institution participation,improving carbon market infrastructure,and establishing a cross-departmental coordinated policy framework.By drawing on international experience and combining domestic pilot practices,this aims to provide an operational and implementable pathway for the development of China’s carbon market,further enhancing the supporting role of the carbon market in green low-carbon transformation.展开更多
Climate change and carbon emissions are major problems which are attracting worldwide attention. China has had its pilot carbon emission trading markets in seven regions for more than 3 years. What affects carbon emis...Climate change and carbon emissions are major problems which are attracting worldwide attention. China has had its pilot carbon emission trading markets in seven regions for more than 3 years. What affects carbon emission trading market in China is a big question. More attention is paid to how China promotes the carbon emission trading schemes in the whole country. This paper addresses concerns about the functioning of carbon emission trading schemes in seven pilot regions and takes the weekly data from November 25, 2013, to March 19, 2017. We employ a vector autoregressive model to study how coal price, oil price and stock index have affected the carbon price in China. The results indicate that carbon price is mainly affected by its own historical price; coal price and stock index have negative effects on carbon price, while oil price has a negative effect on carbon price during the first 3 weeks and then has a positive effect on carbon price. More regulatory attention and economic measures are needed to improve market efficiency, and the mechanisms of carbon emission trading schemes should be improved.展开更多
The launch of the carbon-allowance trading market has changed the cost structure of the power industry.There is an asynchronous coupling mechanism between the carbon-allowance-trading market and the day-ahead power-sy...The launch of the carbon-allowance trading market has changed the cost structure of the power industry.There is an asynchronous coupling mechanism between the carbon-allowance-trading market and the day-ahead power-system dispatch.In this study,a data-driven model of the uncertainty in the annual carbon price was created.Subsequently,a collaborative,robust dispatch model was constructed considering the annual uncertainty of the carbon price and the daily uncertainty of renewable-energy generation.The model is solved using the column-and-constraint generation algorithm.An operation and cost model of a carbon-capture power plant(CCPP)that couples the carbon market and the economic operation of the power system is also established.The critical,profitable conditions for the economic operation of the CCPP were derived.Case studies demonstrated that the proposed low-carbon,robust dispatch model reduced carbon emissions by 2.67%compared with the traditional,economic,dispatch method.The total fuel cost of generation decreases with decreasing,conservative,carbon-price-uncertainty levels,while total carbon emissions continue to increase.When the carbon-quota coefficient decreases,the system dispatch tends to increase low-carbon unit output.This study can provide important guidance for carbon-market design and the low-carbon-dispatch selection strategies.展开更多
文摘At the beginning of 2025,China’s national carbon market carbon price trend exhibited a continuous unilateral downward trajectory,representing a departure from the overall steady upward trend in carbon prices since the carbon market launched in 2021.The analysis suggests that the primary reason for the recent decline in carbon prices is the reversal of supply and demand dynamics in the carbon market,with increased quota supply amid a sluggish economy.It is expected that downward pressure on carbon prices will persist in the short term,but with more industries being included and continued policy optimization and improvement,a rise in China’s medium-to long-term carbon prices is highly probable.Recommendations for enterprises involved in carbon asset operations and management:first,refining carbon asset reserves and trading strategies;second,accelerating internal CCER project development;third,exploring carbon financial instrument applications;fourth,establishing and improving internal carbon pricing mechanisms;fifth,proactively planning for new industry inclusion.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.72401011).
文摘With the European Union(EU)introducing the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM),accurately forecasting EU carbon price is crucial for exporters to estimate export costs,plan low-carbon strategies,and mitigate trade risks.In the petroleum sector,carbon pricing directly influences upstream investment returns and carbon intensity targets,thereby closely linking emissions markets with fossil energy strategies.Existing models often fail to fully capture the nonlinear,non-stationary nature of carbon prices and their dependence on external factors.This study proposes a novel hybrid framework that combines improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise(ICEEMDAN)with gated recurrent unit-convolutional neural network-long short-term memory network-Bayesian optimization(GRU-CNN-LSTM-BO).Empirical results based on the EU emissions trading system(ETS)market demonstrate that the proposed model significantly improves forecasting accuracy.Among all experiments,the proposed GRU-CNN-LSTM-BO framework achieves the best performance,yielding the lowest MAE(1.3872),RMSE(1.7038),MAPE(0.0166),and MSPE(0.0004),as well as the highest R2(0.9400).Compared to all benchmark models,the GRU-CNN-LSTM-BO model achieves reductions in MAE and RMSE ranging from 5.38%to 63.65%and 8.97%to 64.41%,respectively.To further validate the generalization ability and predictive performance of the proposed model,it is also applied to China's ETS.The results show that the GRU-CNN-LSTM-BO model also performs very well in China's ETS.
文摘To address the issues of unclear carbon responsibility attribution,insufficient renewable energy absorption,and simplistic carbon trading mechanisms in integrated energy systems,this paper proposes an electricheat-hydrogen integrated energy system(EHH-IES)optimal scheduling model considering carbon emission stream(CES)and wind-solar accommodation.First,the CES theory is introduced to quantify the carbon emission intensity of each energy conversion device and transmission branch by defining carbon emission rate,branch carbon intensity,and node carbon potential,realizing accurate tracking of carbon flow in the process of multi-energy coupling.Second,a stepped carbon pricing mechanism is established to dynamically adjust carbon trading costs based on the deviation between actual carbon emissions and initial quotas,strengthening the emission reduction incentive.Finally,a lowcarbon economic dispatch model is constructed with the objectives of minimizing operation cost,carbon trading cost,wind-solar curtailment penalty cost,and energy loss.Simulation results show that compared with the traditional economic dispatch scheme 3,the proposed schemel reduces carbon emissions by 53.97%and wind-solar curtailment by 68.89%with a 16.10%increase in total cost.This verifies that the model can effectively improve clean energy utilization and reduce carbon emissions,achieving low-carbon economic operation of EHH-IES,with CES theory ensuring precise carbon flow tracking across multi-energy links.
文摘The UK government implements carbon price floor to provide long-term incentive to invest in low-carbon technology, thus, fossil-fuel power plants have to face increasing carbon price. This report addresses the effect of carbon price floor on levelised cost of gas-fired generation technology through the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) ap-proach with the estimation of carbon price floor. Finally, the comparison of levelised cost of electricity for all generation technology in the UK will be shown and discussed.
基金The authors would like to thank Key Projects in the National Science&Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth Five Year Plan Period[grant number 2012BAC20B03]Beijing Natural Science Foundation[grant number 9112008]for supporting this research
文摘Under the pressure of sustained growth in energy consumption in China,the implementation of a carbon pricing mechanism is an effective economic policy measure for promoting emission reduction,as well as a hotspot of research among scholars and policy makers.In this paper,the effects of carbon prices on Beijing's economy are analyzed using input-output tables.The carbon price costs are levied in accordance with the products'embodied carbon emission.By calculation,given the carbon price rate of 10 RMB/t-CO_2,the total carbon costs of Beijing account for approximately 0.22-0.40%of its gross revenue the same year.Among all industries,construction bears the largest carbon cost Among export sectors,the coal mining and washing industry has much higher export carbon price intensity than other industries.Apart from traditional energy-intensive industries,tertiary industry,which accounts for more than 70%of Beijing's economy,also bears a major carbon cost because of its large economic size.However,from 2007 to 2010,adjustment of the investment structure has reduced the emission intensity in investment sectors,contributing to the reduction of overall emissions and carbon price intensity.
基金supported by Technology Project of State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Company(2024-06)“Research on hierarchical partition dynamic calculation and panoramic monitoring technology of electric power carbon emission and its application”.
文摘In the pursuit of carbon peaking and neutrality goals,multi-energy parks,as major energy consumers and carbon emitters,urgently require low-carbon operational strategies.This paper proposes an electricity-carbon synergy-driven optimization method for the low-carbon operation ofmulti-energy parks.Themethod integratesmultienergy complementary scheduling with a tiered carbon trading mechanism to balance operational security,economic efficiency,and environmental objectives.A mixed-integer linear programming model is developed to characterize the coupling relationships and dynamic behaviors of key equipment,including photovoltaic systems,ground-source heat pumps,thermal storage electric boilers,combined heat and power units,and electrical energy storage systems.Furthermore,a tiered carbon trading model is established that incorporates carbon quota allocation and tiered carbon pricing to internalize carbon costs and discourage high-emission practices.Multi-scenario comparative analyses demonstrate that the electricity-carbon synergy scenario achieves a 42.64%reduction in carbon emissions compared to economy-oriented operation,while limiting the increase in operational costs to 20.85%.The carbon-prioritized scenario further reduces emissions by 9.7%,underscoring the inhibitory effect of the tiered carbon pricing mechanism on highcarbon activities.Sensitivity analyses confirm the model’s robustness against fluctuations in energy load,uncertainty in renewable generation,and variations in carbon price.This optimization method provides theoretical support for multi-energy coordinated scheduling and carbon responsibility allocation in industrial parks,offering valuable insights for promoting green transformation initiatives.
文摘This study uses TIMES model to assess Indonesia’s power sector’s carbon price impact from 2020 to 2050 and the price needed by 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement NDC target.Four scenarios are used to model the impact of carbon price up to 2050:no carbon price,Indonesia’s current price of USD 2.02/tCO_(2)e,ICPF middle-and high-income countries,USD 50/tCO_(2)e and USD 75/tCO_(2)e.Four price scenarios-10,25,35,and 150 USD/tCO_(2)e-are added to better understand the carbon price’s effects.As carbon prices rise,installed capacity and power generation will shift to lower-carbon technology.Ultracritical coal,gas-fired,solar,geothermal,and hydropower plants will replace subcritical coal.Investment,fixed,and variable costs would exceed BaU with a higher carbon price.2.02 to 25 USD/tCO_(2)e can start the coal-to-gas switch but not significantly change the generation profile.The generation will change significantly above 35 USD/tCO_(2)e.Carbon emissions peak lower with rising carbon prices.USD 25 carbon price reduces emissions significantly;a carbon price below that is costly and ineffective.Indonesian Law No.16 of 2016 ratified the Paris Agreement NDC,committing Indonesia to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 29%by 2030 or 41%with international assistance.Energy sector emissions need to decrease by 11%for a 29 percent reduction and 14%for a 41 percent reduction.A 29%reduction requires USD 39.65/tCO_(2)e carbon price,while a 41%reduction requires USD 43.78/tCO_(2)e.These prices are still within the reasonable ICPF price limit for Indonesia to approach the middle-income country price floor.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant numbers 71961137012,71874055)National Science Centre,Poland(2018/30/Q/HS4/00764)research support by the Energy,Climate and Environment Program of International Institute for Applied System Analysis(IIASA)within the Young Scientists Summer Program(YSSP).
文摘Efforts to provide alternative resources and technologies for producing liquid fuel have recently been intensified.Different levels of dependence on oil imports and carbon prices have a significant impact on the composition of the cost-minimizing portfolio of technologies.Considering such factors,how should China plan its future liquid fuel industry?The model for supporting the technology portfolio and capacity configuration that minimizes the total system cost until 2045 is described in this study.The results obtained for different carbon prices and levels of dependence on oil import indicate that the oil-to-liquid fuel(OTL)will remain dominant in China's liquid fuel industry over the next three decades.If the carbon price is low,the coal-to-liquid fuel(CTL)process is competitive.For a high carbon price,the biomass-to-liquid fuel(BTL)technology expands more rapidly.The results also reveal that developing the BTL and CTL can effectively reduce the oil-import dependency;moreover,a high carbon price can lead to the CTL being replaced with the low-carbon technology(e.g.,BTL).Improvement in energy raw material conversion and application of CO_(2) removal technologies are also effective methods to control carbon emissions for achieving the carbon emission goals and ultimately emission reduction targets.
基金like to thank Major Program of National Philosophy and Social Science Foundation of China(Grant No.21ZDA086)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.71974188),and Jiangsu Soft Science Fund(Grant No.BR2022007).
文摘As the largest source of carbon emissions in China,the thermal power industry is the only emission-controlled industry in the first national carbon market compliance cycle.Its conversion to clean-energy generation technologies is also an important means of reducing CO_(2)emissions and achieving the carbon peak and carbon neutral commitments.This study used fractional Brownian motion to describe the energy-switching cost and constructed a stochastic optimization model on carbon allowance(CA)trading volume and emission-reduction strategy during compliance period with the Hurst exponent and volatility coefficient in the model estimated.We defined the optimal compliance cost of thermal power enterprises as the form of the unique solution of the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation by combining the dynamic optimization principle and the fractional It?’s formula.In this manner,we obtained the models for optimal emission reduction and equilibrium CA price.Our numerical analysis revealed that,within a compliance period of 2021–2030,the optimal reductions and desired equilibrium prices of CAs changed concurrently,with an increasing trend annually in different peak-year scenarios.Furthermore,sensitivity analysis revealed that the energy price indirectly affected the equilibrium CA price by influencing the Hurst exponent,the depreciation rate positively impacted the CA price,and increasing the initial CA reduced the optimal reduction and the CA price.Our findings can be used to develop optimal emission-reduction strategies for thermal power enterprises and carbon pricing in the carbon market.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China(NSFC-71672009.71972011).
文摘The international community has taken extensive actions to achieve carbon neutrality and sustainable development with the intensification of global warming and climate change.China has also carried out a long-term layout,setting the goal of achieving a carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.In 2021,with the official launch of a unified national carbon emissions trading market,China’s nationwide carbon emissions trading kicked off.Carbon emission trading is an important policy tool for China’s carbon peak and carbon-neutral action and an essential part of the country’s promotion of a comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society.This study uses a VAR(Vector Autoregressive)model to analyze the influencing factors of the Beijing carbon emissions trading price from January 2014 to December 2019.The study found that coal prices have the most significant impact on Beijing’s carbon emissions trading prices.Oil prices,industrial development indexes,and AQI(Air Quality Index)impacted Beijing’s carbon emissions trading prices.In contrast,natural gas prices and economic indexes have the most negligible impact.These findings will help decision-makers determine a reasonable price for carbon emissions trading and contribute to the market’s healthy development.
文摘With the in-depth advancement of China’s dual carbon goals,the national carbon emissions trading market has become a core policy tool for achieving emission reduction targets.However,the current carbon market remains predominantly spot-based,facing challenges such as limited financial products,restricted market participants,immature carbon pricing mechanisms,and insufficient liquidity,which constrain its resource allocation and risk management functions.Based on the spirit of the“Opinions on Promoting Green Low-Carbon Transformation and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction”issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council,this paper focuses on the challenges faced during the implementation of the dual control system for carbon emissions in the“Fifteenth Five-Year Plan”period,with emphasis on analyzing the development bottlenecks of the carbon market.It proposes accelerating the launch of carbon futures,carbon options and other derivatives,expanding the scope of financial institution participation,improving carbon market infrastructure,and establishing a cross-departmental coordinated policy framework.By drawing on international experience and combining domestic pilot practices,this aims to provide an operational and implementable pathway for the development of China’s carbon market,further enhancing the supporting role of the carbon market in green low-carbon transformation.
基金funded jointly by National Science and Technology Major Project under Grant No.2016ZX05016005-003the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.71173200the Development and Research Center of China Geological Survey under Grant No.12120114056601
文摘Climate change and carbon emissions are major problems which are attracting worldwide attention. China has had its pilot carbon emission trading markets in seven regions for more than 3 years. What affects carbon emission trading market in China is a big question. More attention is paid to how China promotes the carbon emission trading schemes in the whole country. This paper addresses concerns about the functioning of carbon emission trading schemes in seven pilot regions and takes the weekly data from November 25, 2013, to March 19, 2017. We employ a vector autoregressive model to study how coal price, oil price and stock index have affected the carbon price in China. The results indicate that carbon price is mainly affected by its own historical price; coal price and stock index have negative effects on carbon price, while oil price has a negative effect on carbon price during the first 3 weeks and then has a positive effect on carbon price. More regulatory attention and economic measures are needed to improve market efficiency, and the mechanisms of carbon emission trading schemes should be improved.
基金supported by the Science and Technology Project of State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co.,Ltd.(No.2023YF-82).
文摘The launch of the carbon-allowance trading market has changed the cost structure of the power industry.There is an asynchronous coupling mechanism between the carbon-allowance-trading market and the day-ahead power-system dispatch.In this study,a data-driven model of the uncertainty in the annual carbon price was created.Subsequently,a collaborative,robust dispatch model was constructed considering the annual uncertainty of the carbon price and the daily uncertainty of renewable-energy generation.The model is solved using the column-and-constraint generation algorithm.An operation and cost model of a carbon-capture power plant(CCPP)that couples the carbon market and the economic operation of the power system is also established.The critical,profitable conditions for the economic operation of the CCPP were derived.Case studies demonstrated that the proposed low-carbon,robust dispatch model reduced carbon emissions by 2.67%compared with the traditional,economic,dispatch method.The total fuel cost of generation decreases with decreasing,conservative,carbon-price-uncertainty levels,while total carbon emissions continue to increase.When the carbon-quota coefficient decreases,the system dispatch tends to increase low-carbon unit output.This study can provide important guidance for carbon-market design and the low-carbon-dispatch selection strategies.
