At the beginning of 2025,China’s national carbon market carbon price trend exhibited a continuous unilateral downward trajectory,representing a departure from the overall steady upward trend in carbon prices since th...At the beginning of 2025,China’s national carbon market carbon price trend exhibited a continuous unilateral downward trajectory,representing a departure from the overall steady upward trend in carbon prices since the carbon market launched in 2021.The analysis suggests that the primary reason for the recent decline in carbon prices is the reversal of supply and demand dynamics in the carbon market,with increased quota supply amid a sluggish economy.It is expected that downward pressure on carbon prices will persist in the short term,but with more industries being included and continued policy optimization and improvement,a rise in China’s medium-to long-term carbon prices is highly probable.Recommendations for enterprises involved in carbon asset operations and management:first,refining carbon asset reserves and trading strategies;second,accelerating internal CCER project development;third,exploring carbon financial instrument applications;fourth,establishing and improving internal carbon pricing mechanisms;fifth,proactively planning for new industry inclusion.展开更多
The UK government implements carbon price floor to provide long-term incentive to invest in low-carbon technology, thus, fossil-fuel power plants have to face increasing carbon price. This report addresses the effect ...The UK government implements carbon price floor to provide long-term incentive to invest in low-carbon technology, thus, fossil-fuel power plants have to face increasing carbon price. This report addresses the effect of carbon price floor on levelised cost of gas-fired generation technology through the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) ap-proach with the estimation of carbon price floor. Finally, the comparison of levelised cost of electricity for all generation technology in the UK will be shown and discussed.展开更多
Under the pressure of sustained growth in energy consumption in China,the implementation of a carbon pricing mechanism is an effective economic policy measure for promoting emission reduction,as well as a hotspot of r...Under the pressure of sustained growth in energy consumption in China,the implementation of a carbon pricing mechanism is an effective economic policy measure for promoting emission reduction,as well as a hotspot of research among scholars and policy makers.In this paper,the effects of carbon prices on Beijing's economy are analyzed using input-output tables.The carbon price costs are levied in accordance with the products'embodied carbon emission.By calculation,given the carbon price rate of 10 RMB/t-CO_2,the total carbon costs of Beijing account for approximately 0.22-0.40%of its gross revenue the same year.Among all industries,construction bears the largest carbon cost Among export sectors,the coal mining and washing industry has much higher export carbon price intensity than other industries.Apart from traditional energy-intensive industries,tertiary industry,which accounts for more than 70%of Beijing's economy,also bears a major carbon cost because of its large economic size.However,from 2007 to 2010,adjustment of the investment structure has reduced the emission intensity in investment sectors,contributing to the reduction of overall emissions and carbon price intensity.展开更多
To address the issues of unclear carbon responsibility attribution,insufficient renewable energy absorption,and simplistic carbon trading mechanisms in integrated energy systems,this paper proposes an electricheat-hyd...To address the issues of unclear carbon responsibility attribution,insufficient renewable energy absorption,and simplistic carbon trading mechanisms in integrated energy systems,this paper proposes an electricheat-hydrogen integrated energy system(EHH-IES)optimal scheduling model considering carbon emission stream(CES)and wind-solar accommodation.First,the CES theory is introduced to quantify the carbon emission intensity of each energy conversion device and transmission branch by defining carbon emission rate,branch carbon intensity,and node carbon potential,realizing accurate tracking of carbon flow in the process of multi-energy coupling.Second,a stepped carbon pricing mechanism is established to dynamically adjust carbon trading costs based on the deviation between actual carbon emissions and initial quotas,strengthening the emission reduction incentive.Finally,a lowcarbon economic dispatch model is constructed with the objectives of minimizing operation cost,carbon trading cost,wind-solar curtailment penalty cost,and energy loss.Simulation results show that compared with the traditional economic dispatch scheme 3,the proposed schemel reduces carbon emissions by 53.97%and wind-solar curtailment by 68.89%with a 16.10%increase in total cost.This verifies that the model can effectively improve clean energy utilization and reduce carbon emissions,achieving low-carbon economic operation of EHH-IES,with CES theory ensuring precise carbon flow tracking across multi-energy links.展开更多
This study uses TIMES model to assess Indonesia’s power sector’s carbon price impact from 2020 to 2050 and the price needed by 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement NDC target.Four scenarios are used to model the impact ...This study uses TIMES model to assess Indonesia’s power sector’s carbon price impact from 2020 to 2050 and the price needed by 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement NDC target.Four scenarios are used to model the impact of carbon price up to 2050:no carbon price,Indonesia’s current price of USD 2.02/tCO_(2)e,ICPF middle-and high-income countries,USD 50/tCO_(2)e and USD 75/tCO_(2)e.Four price scenarios-10,25,35,and 150 USD/tCO_(2)e-are added to better understand the carbon price’s effects.As carbon prices rise,installed capacity and power generation will shift to lower-carbon technology.Ultracritical coal,gas-fired,solar,geothermal,and hydropower plants will replace subcritical coal.Investment,fixed,and variable costs would exceed BaU with a higher carbon price.2.02 to 25 USD/tCO_(2)e can start the coal-to-gas switch but not significantly change the generation profile.The generation will change significantly above 35 USD/tCO_(2)e.Carbon emissions peak lower with rising carbon prices.USD 25 carbon price reduces emissions significantly;a carbon price below that is costly and ineffective.Indonesian Law No.16 of 2016 ratified the Paris Agreement NDC,committing Indonesia to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 29%by 2030 or 41%with international assistance.Energy sector emissions need to decrease by 11%for a 29 percent reduction and 14%for a 41 percent reduction.A 29%reduction requires USD 39.65/tCO_(2)e carbon price,while a 41%reduction requires USD 43.78/tCO_(2)e.These prices are still within the reasonable ICPF price limit for Indonesia to approach the middle-income country price floor.展开更多
Efforts to provide alternative resources and technologies for producing liquid fuel have recently been intensified.Different levels of dependence on oil imports and carbon prices have a significant impact on the compo...Efforts to provide alternative resources and technologies for producing liquid fuel have recently been intensified.Different levels of dependence on oil imports and carbon prices have a significant impact on the composition of the cost-minimizing portfolio of technologies.Considering such factors,how should China plan its future liquid fuel industry?The model for supporting the technology portfolio and capacity configuration that minimizes the total system cost until 2045 is described in this study.The results obtained for different carbon prices and levels of dependence on oil import indicate that the oil-to-liquid fuel(OTL)will remain dominant in China's liquid fuel industry over the next three decades.If the carbon price is low,the coal-to-liquid fuel(CTL)process is competitive.For a high carbon price,the biomass-to-liquid fuel(BTL)technology expands more rapidly.The results also reveal that developing the BTL and CTL can effectively reduce the oil-import dependency;moreover,a high carbon price can lead to the CTL being replaced with the low-carbon technology(e.g.,BTL).Improvement in energy raw material conversion and application of CO_(2) removal technologies are also effective methods to control carbon emissions for achieving the carbon emission goals and ultimately emission reduction targets.展开更多
As the largest source of carbon emissions in China,the thermal power industry is the only emission-controlled industry in the first national carbon market compliance cycle.Its conversion to clean-energy generation tec...As the largest source of carbon emissions in China,the thermal power industry is the only emission-controlled industry in the first national carbon market compliance cycle.Its conversion to clean-energy generation technologies is also an important means of reducing CO_(2)emissions and achieving the carbon peak and carbon neutral commitments.This study used fractional Brownian motion to describe the energy-switching cost and constructed a stochastic optimization model on carbon allowance(CA)trading volume and emission-reduction strategy during compliance period with the Hurst exponent and volatility coefficient in the model estimated.We defined the optimal compliance cost of thermal power enterprises as the form of the unique solution of the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation by combining the dynamic optimization principle and the fractional It?’s formula.In this manner,we obtained the models for optimal emission reduction and equilibrium CA price.Our numerical analysis revealed that,within a compliance period of 2021–2030,the optimal reductions and desired equilibrium prices of CAs changed concurrently,with an increasing trend annually in different peak-year scenarios.Furthermore,sensitivity analysis revealed that the energy price indirectly affected the equilibrium CA price by influencing the Hurst exponent,the depreciation rate positively impacted the CA price,and increasing the initial CA reduced the optimal reduction and the CA price.Our findings can be used to develop optimal emission-reduction strategies for thermal power enterprises and carbon pricing in the carbon market.展开更多
The international community has taken extensive actions to achieve carbon neutrality and sustainable development with the intensification of global warming and climate change.China has also carried out a long-term lay...The international community has taken extensive actions to achieve carbon neutrality and sustainable development with the intensification of global warming and climate change.China has also carried out a long-term layout,setting the goal of achieving a carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.In 2021,with the official launch of a unified national carbon emissions trading market,China’s nationwide carbon emissions trading kicked off.Carbon emission trading is an important policy tool for China’s carbon peak and carbon-neutral action and an essential part of the country’s promotion of a comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society.This study uses a VAR(Vector Autoregressive)model to analyze the influencing factors of the Beijing carbon emissions trading price from January 2014 to December 2019.The study found that coal prices have the most significant impact on Beijing’s carbon emissions trading prices.Oil prices,industrial development indexes,and AQI(Air Quality Index)impacted Beijing’s carbon emissions trading prices.In contrast,natural gas prices and economic indexes have the most negligible impact.These findings will help decision-makers determine a reasonable price for carbon emissions trading and contribute to the market’s healthy development.展开更多
With the in-depth advancement of China’s dual carbon goals,the national carbon emissions trading market has become a core policy tool for achieving emission reduction targets.However,the current carbon market remains...With the in-depth advancement of China’s dual carbon goals,the national carbon emissions trading market has become a core policy tool for achieving emission reduction targets.However,the current carbon market remains predominantly spot-based,facing challenges such as limited financial products,restricted market participants,immature carbon pricing mechanisms,and insufficient liquidity,which constrain its resource allocation and risk management functions.Based on the spirit of the“Opinions on Promoting Green Low-Carbon Transformation and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction”issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council,this paper focuses on the challenges faced during the implementation of the dual control system for carbon emissions in the“Fifteenth Five-Year Plan”period,with emphasis on analyzing the development bottlenecks of the carbon market.It proposes accelerating the launch of carbon futures,carbon options and other derivatives,expanding the scope of financial institution participation,improving carbon market infrastructure,and establishing a cross-departmental coordinated policy framework.By drawing on international experience and combining domestic pilot practices,this aims to provide an operational and implementable pathway for the development of China’s carbon market,further enhancing the supporting role of the carbon market in green low-carbon transformation.展开更多
Climate change and carbon emissions are major problems which are attracting worldwide attention. China has had its pilot carbon emission trading markets in seven regions for more than 3 years. What affects carbon emis...Climate change and carbon emissions are major problems which are attracting worldwide attention. China has had its pilot carbon emission trading markets in seven regions for more than 3 years. What affects carbon emission trading market in China is a big question. More attention is paid to how China promotes the carbon emission trading schemes in the whole country. This paper addresses concerns about the functioning of carbon emission trading schemes in seven pilot regions and takes the weekly data from November 25, 2013, to March 19, 2017. We employ a vector autoregressive model to study how coal price, oil price and stock index have affected the carbon price in China. The results indicate that carbon price is mainly affected by its own historical price; coal price and stock index have negative effects on carbon price, while oil price has a negative effect on carbon price during the first 3 weeks and then has a positive effect on carbon price. More regulatory attention and economic measures are needed to improve market efficiency, and the mechanisms of carbon emission trading schemes should be improved.展开更多
Based on the survey of international emissions trading system （ETS） and quantitative analysis, policy suggestions on establishing a carbon ETS in China are presented in this study. Sectors sensitive to carbon prices...Based on the survey of international emissions trading system （ETS） and quantitative analysis, policy suggestions on establishing a carbon ETS in China are presented in this study. Sectors sensitive to carbon prices, e.g., the power generation sector and the iron and steel industry, are given priority to be covered by the ETS. Interregional carbon trading should be carried out as early as possible. The cap of the ETS should be based on China＇s carbon intensity reduction target with the floor carbon price for the market being set in the beginning. Suggestions on the infrastructure of ETS are also proposed, including the national wide carbon measuring, reporting, verification system building. account registration system and the legislation to national展开更多
The launch of the carbon-allowance trading market has changed the cost structure of the power industry.There is an asynchronous coupling mechanism between the carbon-allowance-trading market and the day-ahead power-sy...The launch of the carbon-allowance trading market has changed the cost structure of the power industry.There is an asynchronous coupling mechanism between the carbon-allowance-trading market and the day-ahead power-system dispatch.In this study,a data-driven model of the uncertainty in the annual carbon price was created.Subsequently,a collaborative,robust dispatch model was constructed considering the annual uncertainty of the carbon price and the daily uncertainty of renewable-energy generation.The model is solved using the column-and-constraint generation algorithm.An operation and cost model of a carbon-capture power plant(CCPP)that couples the carbon market and the economic operation of the power system is also established.The critical,profitable conditions for the economic operation of the CCPP were derived.Case studies demonstrated that the proposed low-carbon,robust dispatch model reduced carbon emissions by 2.67%compared with the traditional,economic,dispatch method.The total fuel cost of generation decreases with decreasing,conservative,carbon-price-uncertainty levels,while total carbon emissions continue to increase.When the carbon-quota coefficient decreases,the system dispatch tends to increase low-carbon unit output.This study can provide important guidance for carbon-market design and the low-carbon-dispatch selection strategies.展开更多
China has promised to start the national carbon trading system in 2017.In the carbon trading system,the renewable energy projects may obtain additional benefits through the Certified Carbon Emission Reduction(CCER) tr...China has promised to start the national carbon trading system in 2017.In the carbon trading system,the renewable energy projects may obtain additional benefits through the Certified Carbon Emission Reduction(CCER) trade.As the carbon price fluctuates along with the market conditions,such fluctuation enables the renewable power projects to acquire the rights of an option,i.e.it may contain an even higher value due to the uncertainties in the future.While making an investment decision,the renewable power companies may choose to make the investment immediately,or postpone the investment and accumulate more information to increase the return of investment;and for immediate investments,the return must be sufficient to exceed the potential value of a waiting option.To study the investment in renewable power projects subject to the fluctuation of carbon price,this paper adopts the trinomial tree model of real options to estimate the net present value(NPV) and real option value(ROV) of three types of renewable power projects;according to the decision-making rules of real options to defer,all the three types of projects will exercise the option to postpone the investment decision.This thesis also calculates the benchmark prices of the three types of renewable projects at different times,in the two situations of having no government subsidy and having the government subsidy,so as to determine the investment opportunity of a project.The benchmark price decreases gradually along with the increase of government subsidy,indicating that the government subsidy will stimulate the investment in renewable projects.The benchmark price also increases gradually along with the lapse of time,indicating that the uncertainty will increase together with the time span and thus requires an even higher carbon price to determine the investment opportunity.This thesis also analyzes the sensitivity of factors affecting the investment in renewable projects and draws the conclusion that the fluctuation of carbon price is positively related with the benchmark price of renewable power projects,which indicates that the fluctuation of carbon price increases the option value of an investment but postpones the time of investment.As the China's carbon trading system improves gradually,the carbon price will reach a stable status,thus stimulate the power companies to invest in the renewable projects.展开更多
The high overlap of participants in the carbon emissions trading and electricity markets couples the operations of the two markets.The carbon emission cost(CEC)of coal-fired units becomes part of the power generation ...The high overlap of participants in the carbon emissions trading and electricity markets couples the operations of the two markets.The carbon emission cost(CEC)of coal-fired units becomes part of the power generation cost through market coupling.The accuracy of CEC calculation affects the clearing capacity of coal-fired units in the electric power market.Study of carbon–electricity market interaction and CEC calculations is still in its initial stages.This study analyzes the impact of carbon emissions trading and compliance on the operation of the electric power market and defines the cost transmission mode between the carbon emissions trading and electric power markets.A long-period interactive operation simulation mechanism for the carbon–electricity market is established,and operation and trading models of the carbon emissions trading market and electric power market are established.A daily rolling estimation method for the CEC of coal-fired units is proposed,along with the CEC per unit electric quantity of the coal-fired units.The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified through an example simulation,and the factors influencing the CEC are analyzed.展开更多
The Ramsey rule is regarded as a convenient vehicle for estimating the social discount rate in general. Carbon pricing is treated as another theory of environmental economics. This study clarifies the theoretical rela...The Ramsey rule is regarded as a convenient vehicle for estimating the social discount rate in general. Carbon pricing is treated as another theory of environmental economics. This study clarifies the theoretical relationship between the Ramsey rule and optimal carbon price, which has been overlooked in the existing research. It succeeds in deriving the optimal carbon price from the modified Ramsey rule in stationary state. Since the Ramsey rule decides the dynamics of an economy and a stationary state is its destination, by using the optimization condition of individual who are assumed to live infinitesimally short life, we can solve the optimal carbon price at stationary state.展开更多
With the aid of Matlab software, the peaks of China＇s carbon emissions and their appearing time in three situations were simulated, and the shallow price of carbon emission permit and its effects on China＇s economic...With the aid of Matlab software, the peaks of China＇s carbon emissions and their appearing time in three situations were simulated, and the shallow price of carbon emission permit and its effects on China＇s economic growth were analyzed. The results show that it is most effective and feasible to reduce energy consumption per GDP by 25%, and the peak of China＇s carbon emissions will appear in 2017. As a result, energy conser- vation and emission reduction is realized, and China＇s international talk power about carbon emission will improved. However, the shallow price and permit rate of carbon emission permit calculated in the situation are the lowest, and the adverse impact of the initial price of carbon emissions on China＇s economic growth is the largest. Therefore, consideration should be given to both the promotion of pricing and trading of carbon emission permit to reduction of carbon emissions and their adverse effects on GDP in China.展开更多
文摘At the beginning of 2025,China’s national carbon market carbon price trend exhibited a continuous unilateral downward trajectory,representing a departure from the overall steady upward trend in carbon prices since the carbon market launched in 2021.The analysis suggests that the primary reason for the recent decline in carbon prices is the reversal of supply and demand dynamics in the carbon market,with increased quota supply amid a sluggish economy.It is expected that downward pressure on carbon prices will persist in the short term,but with more industries being included and continued policy optimization and improvement,a rise in China’s medium-to long-term carbon prices is highly probable.Recommendations for enterprises involved in carbon asset operations and management:first,refining carbon asset reserves and trading strategies;second,accelerating internal CCER project development;third,exploring carbon financial instrument applications;fourth,establishing and improving internal carbon pricing mechanisms;fifth,proactively planning for new industry inclusion.
文摘The UK government implements carbon price floor to provide long-term incentive to invest in low-carbon technology, thus, fossil-fuel power plants have to face increasing carbon price. This report addresses the effect of carbon price floor on levelised cost of gas-fired generation technology through the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) ap-proach with the estimation of carbon price floor. Finally, the comparison of levelised cost of electricity for all generation technology in the UK will be shown and discussed.
基金The authors would like to thank Key Projects in the National Science&Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth Five Year Plan Period[grant number 2012BAC20B03]Beijing Natural Science Foundation[grant number 9112008]for supporting this research
文摘Under the pressure of sustained growth in energy consumption in China,the implementation of a carbon pricing mechanism is an effective economic policy measure for promoting emission reduction,as well as a hotspot of research among scholars and policy makers.In this paper,the effects of carbon prices on Beijing's economy are analyzed using input-output tables.The carbon price costs are levied in accordance with the products'embodied carbon emission.By calculation,given the carbon price rate of 10 RMB/t-CO_2,the total carbon costs of Beijing account for approximately 0.22-0.40%of its gross revenue the same year.Among all industries,construction bears the largest carbon cost Among export sectors,the coal mining and washing industry has much higher export carbon price intensity than other industries.Apart from traditional energy-intensive industries,tertiary industry,which accounts for more than 70%of Beijing's economy,also bears a major carbon cost because of its large economic size.However,from 2007 to 2010,adjustment of the investment structure has reduced the emission intensity in investment sectors,contributing to the reduction of overall emissions and carbon price intensity.
文摘To address the issues of unclear carbon responsibility attribution,insufficient renewable energy absorption,and simplistic carbon trading mechanisms in integrated energy systems,this paper proposes an electricheat-hydrogen integrated energy system(EHH-IES)optimal scheduling model considering carbon emission stream(CES)and wind-solar accommodation.First,the CES theory is introduced to quantify the carbon emission intensity of each energy conversion device and transmission branch by defining carbon emission rate,branch carbon intensity,and node carbon potential,realizing accurate tracking of carbon flow in the process of multi-energy coupling.Second,a stepped carbon pricing mechanism is established to dynamically adjust carbon trading costs based on the deviation between actual carbon emissions and initial quotas,strengthening the emission reduction incentive.Finally,a lowcarbon economic dispatch model is constructed with the objectives of minimizing operation cost,carbon trading cost,wind-solar curtailment penalty cost,and energy loss.Simulation results show that compared with the traditional economic dispatch scheme 3,the proposed schemel reduces carbon emissions by 53.97%and wind-solar curtailment by 68.89%with a 16.10%increase in total cost.This verifies that the model can effectively improve clean energy utilization and reduce carbon emissions,achieving low-carbon economic operation of EHH-IES,with CES theory ensuring precise carbon flow tracking across multi-energy links.
文摘This study uses TIMES model to assess Indonesia’s power sector’s carbon price impact from 2020 to 2050 and the price needed by 2030 to meet the Paris Agreement NDC target.Four scenarios are used to model the impact of carbon price up to 2050:no carbon price,Indonesia’s current price of USD 2.02/tCO_(2)e,ICPF middle-and high-income countries,USD 50/tCO_(2)e and USD 75/tCO_(2)e.Four price scenarios-10,25,35,and 150 USD/tCO_(2)e-are added to better understand the carbon price’s effects.As carbon prices rise,installed capacity and power generation will shift to lower-carbon technology.Ultracritical coal,gas-fired,solar,geothermal,and hydropower plants will replace subcritical coal.Investment,fixed,and variable costs would exceed BaU with a higher carbon price.2.02 to 25 USD/tCO_(2)e can start the coal-to-gas switch but not significantly change the generation profile.The generation will change significantly above 35 USD/tCO_(2)e.Carbon emissions peak lower with rising carbon prices.USD 25 carbon price reduces emissions significantly;a carbon price below that is costly and ineffective.Indonesian Law No.16 of 2016 ratified the Paris Agreement NDC,committing Indonesia to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 29%by 2030 or 41%with international assistance.Energy sector emissions need to decrease by 11%for a 29 percent reduction and 14%for a 41 percent reduction.A 29%reduction requires USD 39.65/tCO_(2)e carbon price,while a 41%reduction requires USD 43.78/tCO_(2)e.These prices are still within the reasonable ICPF price limit for Indonesia to approach the middle-income country price floor.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant numbers 71961137012,71874055)National Science Centre,Poland(2018/30/Q/HS4/00764)research support by the Energy,Climate and Environment Program of International Institute for Applied System Analysis(IIASA)within the Young Scientists Summer Program(YSSP).
文摘Efforts to provide alternative resources and technologies for producing liquid fuel have recently been intensified.Different levels of dependence on oil imports and carbon prices have a significant impact on the composition of the cost-minimizing portfolio of technologies.Considering such factors,how should China plan its future liquid fuel industry?The model for supporting the technology portfolio and capacity configuration that minimizes the total system cost until 2045 is described in this study.The results obtained for different carbon prices and levels of dependence on oil import indicate that the oil-to-liquid fuel(OTL)will remain dominant in China's liquid fuel industry over the next three decades.If the carbon price is low,the coal-to-liquid fuel(CTL)process is competitive.For a high carbon price,the biomass-to-liquid fuel(BTL)technology expands more rapidly.The results also reveal that developing the BTL and CTL can effectively reduce the oil-import dependency;moreover,a high carbon price can lead to the CTL being replaced with the low-carbon technology(e.g.,BTL).Improvement in energy raw material conversion and application of CO_(2) removal technologies are also effective methods to control carbon emissions for achieving the carbon emission goals and ultimately emission reduction targets.
基金like to thank Major Program of National Philosophy and Social Science Foundation of China(Grant No.21ZDA086)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.71974188),and Jiangsu Soft Science Fund(Grant No.BR2022007).
文摘As the largest source of carbon emissions in China,the thermal power industry is the only emission-controlled industry in the first national carbon market compliance cycle.Its conversion to clean-energy generation technologies is also an important means of reducing CO_(2)emissions and achieving the carbon peak and carbon neutral commitments.This study used fractional Brownian motion to describe the energy-switching cost and constructed a stochastic optimization model on carbon allowance(CA)trading volume and emission-reduction strategy during compliance period with the Hurst exponent and volatility coefficient in the model estimated.We defined the optimal compliance cost of thermal power enterprises as the form of the unique solution of the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman equation by combining the dynamic optimization principle and the fractional It?’s formula.In this manner,we obtained the models for optimal emission reduction and equilibrium CA price.Our numerical analysis revealed that,within a compliance period of 2021–2030,the optimal reductions and desired equilibrium prices of CAs changed concurrently,with an increasing trend annually in different peak-year scenarios.Furthermore,sensitivity analysis revealed that the energy price indirectly affected the equilibrium CA price by influencing the Hurst exponent,the depreciation rate positively impacted the CA price,and increasing the initial CA reduced the optimal reduction and the CA price.Our findings can be used to develop optimal emission-reduction strategies for thermal power enterprises and carbon pricing in the carbon market.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China(NSFC-71672009.71972011).
文摘The international community has taken extensive actions to achieve carbon neutrality and sustainable development with the intensification of global warming and climate change.China has also carried out a long-term layout,setting the goal of achieving a carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.In 2021,with the official launch of a unified national carbon emissions trading market,China’s nationwide carbon emissions trading kicked off.Carbon emission trading is an important policy tool for China’s carbon peak and carbon-neutral action and an essential part of the country’s promotion of a comprehensive green transformation of the economy and society.This study uses a VAR(Vector Autoregressive)model to analyze the influencing factors of the Beijing carbon emissions trading price from January 2014 to December 2019.The study found that coal prices have the most significant impact on Beijing’s carbon emissions trading prices.Oil prices,industrial development indexes,and AQI(Air Quality Index)impacted Beijing’s carbon emissions trading prices.In contrast,natural gas prices and economic indexes have the most negligible impact.These findings will help decision-makers determine a reasonable price for carbon emissions trading and contribute to the market’s healthy development.
文摘With the in-depth advancement of China’s dual carbon goals,the national carbon emissions trading market has become a core policy tool for achieving emission reduction targets.However,the current carbon market remains predominantly spot-based,facing challenges such as limited financial products,restricted market participants,immature carbon pricing mechanisms,and insufficient liquidity,which constrain its resource allocation and risk management functions.Based on the spirit of the“Opinions on Promoting Green Low-Carbon Transformation and Strengthening National Carbon Market Construction”issued by the General Office of the CPC Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council,this paper focuses on the challenges faced during the implementation of the dual control system for carbon emissions in the“Fifteenth Five-Year Plan”period,with emphasis on analyzing the development bottlenecks of the carbon market.It proposes accelerating the launch of carbon futures,carbon options and other derivatives,expanding the scope of financial institution participation,improving carbon market infrastructure,and establishing a cross-departmental coordinated policy framework.By drawing on international experience and combining domestic pilot practices,this aims to provide an operational and implementable pathway for the development of China’s carbon market,further enhancing the supporting role of the carbon market in green low-carbon transformation.
基金funded jointly by National Science and Technology Major Project under Grant No.2016ZX05016005-003the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.71173200the Development and Research Center of China Geological Survey under Grant No.12120114056601
文摘Climate change and carbon emissions are major problems which are attracting worldwide attention. China has had its pilot carbon emission trading markets in seven regions for more than 3 years. What affects carbon emission trading market in China is a big question. More attention is paid to how China promotes the carbon emission trading schemes in the whole country. This paper addresses concerns about the functioning of carbon emission trading schemes in seven pilot regions and takes the weekly data from November 25, 2013, to March 19, 2017. We employ a vector autoregressive model to study how coal price, oil price and stock index have affected the carbon price in China. The results indicate that carbon price is mainly affected by its own historical price; coal price and stock index have negative effects on carbon price, while oil price has a negative effect on carbon price during the first 3 weeks and then has a positive effect on carbon price. More regulatory attention and economic measures are needed to improve market efficiency, and the mechanisms of carbon emission trading schemes should be improved.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(No.2012CB955700 and 2010CB955501)
文摘Based on the survey of international emissions trading system （ETS） and quantitative analysis, policy suggestions on establishing a carbon ETS in China are presented in this study. Sectors sensitive to carbon prices, e.g., the power generation sector and the iron and steel industry, are given priority to be covered by the ETS. Interregional carbon trading should be carried out as early as possible. The cap of the ETS should be based on China＇s carbon intensity reduction target with the floor carbon price for the market being set in the beginning. Suggestions on the infrastructure of ETS are also proposed, including the national wide carbon measuring, reporting, verification system building. account registration system and the legislation to national
基金supported by the Science and Technology Project of State Grid Liaoning Electric Power Co.,Ltd.(No.2023YF-82).
文摘The launch of the carbon-allowance trading market has changed the cost structure of the power industry.There is an asynchronous coupling mechanism between the carbon-allowance-trading market and the day-ahead power-system dispatch.In this study,a data-driven model of the uncertainty in the annual carbon price was created.Subsequently,a collaborative,robust dispatch model was constructed considering the annual uncertainty of the carbon price and the daily uncertainty of renewable-energy generation.The model is solved using the column-and-constraint generation algorithm.An operation and cost model of a carbon-capture power plant(CCPP)that couples the carbon market and the economic operation of the power system is also established.The critical,profitable conditions for the economic operation of the CCPP were derived.Case studies demonstrated that the proposed low-carbon,robust dispatch model reduced carbon emissions by 2.67%compared with the traditional,economic,dispatch method.The total fuel cost of generation decreases with decreasing,conservative,carbon-price-uncertainty levels,while total carbon emissions continue to increase.When the carbon-quota coefficient decreases,the system dispatch tends to increase low-carbon unit output.This study can provide important guidance for carbon-market design and the low-carbon-dispatch selection strategies.
文摘China has promised to start the national carbon trading system in 2017.In the carbon trading system,the renewable energy projects may obtain additional benefits through the Certified Carbon Emission Reduction(CCER) trade.As the carbon price fluctuates along with the market conditions,such fluctuation enables the renewable power projects to acquire the rights of an option,i.e.it may contain an even higher value due to the uncertainties in the future.While making an investment decision,the renewable power companies may choose to make the investment immediately,or postpone the investment and accumulate more information to increase the return of investment;and for immediate investments,the return must be sufficient to exceed the potential value of a waiting option.To study the investment in renewable power projects subject to the fluctuation of carbon price,this paper adopts the trinomial tree model of real options to estimate the net present value(NPV) and real option value(ROV) of three types of renewable power projects;according to the decision-making rules of real options to defer,all the three types of projects will exercise the option to postpone the investment decision.This thesis also calculates the benchmark prices of the three types of renewable projects at different times,in the two situations of having no government subsidy and having the government subsidy,so as to determine the investment opportunity of a project.The benchmark price decreases gradually along with the increase of government subsidy,indicating that the government subsidy will stimulate the investment in renewable projects.The benchmark price also increases gradually along with the lapse of time,indicating that the uncertainty will increase together with the time span and thus requires an even higher carbon price to determine the investment opportunity.This thesis also analyzes the sensitivity of factors affecting the investment in renewable projects and draws the conclusion that the fluctuation of carbon price is positively related with the benchmark price of renewable power projects,which indicates that the fluctuation of carbon price increases the option value of an investment but postpones the time of investment.As the China's carbon trading system improves gradually,the carbon price will reach a stable status,thus stimulate the power companies to invest in the renewable projects.
基金supported by Anhui Provincial Natural Science Foundation(No.2208085UD02)National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52077061).
文摘The high overlap of participants in the carbon emissions trading and electricity markets couples the operations of the two markets.The carbon emission cost(CEC)of coal-fired units becomes part of the power generation cost through market coupling.The accuracy of CEC calculation affects the clearing capacity of coal-fired units in the electric power market.Study of carbon–electricity market interaction and CEC calculations is still in its initial stages.This study analyzes the impact of carbon emissions trading and compliance on the operation of the electric power market and defines the cost transmission mode between the carbon emissions trading and electric power markets.A long-period interactive operation simulation mechanism for the carbon–electricity market is established,and operation and trading models of the carbon emissions trading market and electric power market are established.A daily rolling estimation method for the CEC of coal-fired units is proposed,along with the CEC per unit electric quantity of the coal-fired units.The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified through an example simulation,and the factors influencing the CEC are analyzed.
文摘The Ramsey rule is regarded as a convenient vehicle for estimating the social discount rate in general. Carbon pricing is treated as another theory of environmental economics. This study clarifies the theoretical relationship between the Ramsey rule and optimal carbon price, which has been overlooked in the existing research. It succeeds in deriving the optimal carbon price from the modified Ramsey rule in stationary state. Since the Ramsey rule decides the dynamics of an economy and a stationary state is its destination, by using the optimization condition of individual who are assumed to live infinitesimally short life, we can solve the optimal carbon price at stationary state.
基金Supported by the Social Science Foundation of Yangtze University(2014csq013)
文摘With the aid of Matlab software, the peaks of China＇s carbon emissions and their appearing time in three situations were simulated, and the shallow price of carbon emission permit and its effects on China＇s economic growth were analyzed. The results show that it is most effective and feasible to reduce energy consumption per GDP by 25%, and the peak of China＇s carbon emissions will appear in 2017. As a result, energy conser- vation and emission reduction is realized, and China＇s international talk power about carbon emission will improved. However, the shallow price and permit rate of carbon emission permit calculated in the situation are the lowest, and the adverse impact of the initial price of carbon emissions on China＇s economic growth is the largest. Therefore, consideration should be given to both the promotion of pricing and trading of carbon emission permit to reduction of carbon emissions and their adverse effects on GDP in China.
