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南海台风模式对台风利奇马快速增强预报能力研究 被引量:2
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作者 黄燕燕 陈子通 +4 位作者 冯业荣 张艳霞 徐道生 郑彬 靳卫卫 《气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2024年第5期532-546,共15页
针对台风利奇马(1909),分析中国气象局南海台风模式(CMA-TRAMS)和欧洲中期天气预报中心高分辨率模式(HRES)对台风快速增强的业务预报情况,并基于CMA-TRAMS,从水平分辨率、初始场和边界条件、物理参数化方案等角度设计并开展数值敏感性... 针对台风利奇马(1909),分析中国气象局南海台风模式(CMA-TRAMS)和欧洲中期天气预报中心高分辨率模式(HRES)对台风快速增强的业务预报情况,并基于CMA-TRAMS,从水平分辨率、初始场和边界条件、物理参数化方案等角度设计并开展数值敏感性试验。CMA-TRAMS和HRES对“利奇马”增强具有一定预报能力,但对快速增强的速度预报明显低于实况,均不能满足24 h和12 h快速增强标准,可达到6 h快速增强标准。CMA-TRAMS采用3 km分辨率对“利奇马”移动路径和强度变化的预报效果优于9 km分辨率,但未改进快速增强预报效果;采用3 km嵌套9 km的方案,模式对台风快速增强的预报效果明显提升。采用MRF边界层参数化方案对台风路径、强度、快速增强的预报效果总体优于YSU方案。海温参数化结合32层垂直分辨率的初始场和边界条件的方案明显提高了快速增强预报效果,预报快速增强的频次、增强的最大速度更接近实况。分析表明,海温参数化方案使海气温差增大,在短时间内对大气、海洋之间的热量输送和交换有明显影响,海洋向大气输送的感热通量和台风内核区的潜热通量加强使内核更暖湿、气压负倾向增大,是预报效果改进的主要原因。 展开更多
关键词 台风 快速增强 可预报性 CMA-TRAMS 数值模拟 海温参数化方案
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A New Globally Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Analysis Dataset since 1900 被引量:2
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作者 Lifan CHEN Lijuan CAO +2 位作者 Zijiang ZHOU Dongbin ZHANG Jie LIAO 《Journal of Meteorological Research》 SCIE CSCD 2021年第6期911-925,共15页
A new globally reconstructed sea surface temperature(SST)analysis dataset developed by the China Meteorological Administration(CMA-SST),available on 2°×2°and monthly resolutions since 1900,is described ... A new globally reconstructed sea surface temperature(SST)analysis dataset developed by the China Meteorological Administration(CMA-SST),available on 2°×2°and monthly resolutions since 1900,is described and assessed in this study.The dataset has been constructed from a newly developed integrated dataset with denser and wider sampling of in situ SST observations and follows similar analysis techniques to the Extended Reconstructed SST,version 5(ERSST.v5).Assessments show that the larger observation quantity of the input data source is beneficial to making the reconstructed SSTs more realistic than those reconstructed with ICOADS 3.0+GTS(International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Dataset 3.0 and Global Telecommunication System),especially in China’s offshore sea area.Besides,a specific parameter for bias correction has been upgraded to be self-adaptive to the input data source,and serves as a mediator to improve the accuracy of the reconstructed SSTs.Generally,the reconstructed CMA-SST dataset is comparable to currently congeneric products.Its biases are similar to those of ERSST.v5,the Centennial Observation-Based Estimates of SST version 2(COBE-SST2),the Hadley Centre Sea Ice and SST dataset version 2(Had ISST2),and the Hadley Centre SST dataset version 3(Had SST3);and more specifically,they are closest to ERSST.v5 and lower than Had ISST2 and Had SST3 at high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere where in situ observations are limited.Moreover,its temporal characteristics,such as the year-to-year variations of globally averaged SST anomalies and time series of the Nino-3.4,Atlantic multidecadal oscillation,and Pacific decadal oscillation indices are also a good match to those of congeneric products.Although the warming rates of CMA-SST are a little higher in many regions over the periods 1900-2019 and 1950-2019,they are found to be acceptable and within the quantified uncertainties of ERSST.v5.However,there are noticeable differences in the strength and stability of spatial standard deviations among the various datasets,as well as low correlations between CMA-SST and the other products around 60°S where in situ sampling is very limited.These aspects necessitate further investigation and improvement of CMA-SST. 展开更多
关键词 sea surface temperature cma-sst dataset bias correction reconstruction climate change
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