This research offers valuable insights into the relationship between land use and daytime climatic comfort in high-rise urban developments in Delhi.This city is navigating rapid urbanisation and facing critical enviro...This research offers valuable insights into the relationship between land use and daytime climatic comfort in high-rise urban developments in Delhi.This city is navigating rapid urbanisation and facing critical environmental challenges like pollution,heat stress,land degradation etc.The study aims to enhance understanding of how diverse land use patterns influence thermal comfort by utilising satellite data from the Landsat/Resourcesat series for classification and MODIS for land surface temperature(LST)extraction.The findings highlight that regions with dense construction and limited green and blue spaces tend to experience lower levels of climatic comfort,with 17.17 Percent of Delhi’s geographical area feeling the adverse effects of the Urban Heat Island(UHI)phenomenon.On a positive note,40.20 Percent of the area is associated with high climatic comfort,primarily due to natural features such as vegetation and water bodies.Furthermore,the research indicates a noteworthy increase in land surface temperatures(LST)from 2000 to 2022,with peak recorded temperatures rising from 38.35℃ in 2000 to 47.27℃ in 2022.In summary,this study emphasises the importance of understanding and addressing the UHI effect in urban settings,providing constructive recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders dedicated to fostering improved livability and sustainability in urban environments.展开更多
Exploring hydroclimatic variability and its driving mechanisms during the Holocene is essential for comprehending both historical and prospective responses of water resources to climatic shifts in Arid Central Asia(AC...Exploring hydroclimatic variability and its driving mechanisms during the Holocene is essential for comprehending both historical and prospective responses of water resources to climatic shifts in Arid Central Asia(ACA)region.However,debate persists regarding whether dryland lakes in this region exhibited aridification or humidification during the Holocene.Lopnur serves as the terminal lake of Tarim rivers during the Holocene,which offers an ideal natural laboratory to address the questions.In this study,a high-resolution chronological framework was established through precise radiocarbon dating.Multi-proxy analyses,including geochemical composition,grain size distributions,MS,LOI,and C/N ratios were conducted from a lacustrine profile in the core area of“Great ear”in the southern part of Lopnur catchment.These analyses enabled the reconstruction of hydrological dynamics and facilitated the disentanglement of independent signals linked to climate variability,runoff fluctuations,and lake-level changes.The results demonstrate that the MidHolocene(7800–4000 cal yr B.P.)was characterized by cold and humid conditions,resulting in elevated surface runoff and lake level.The Late Holocene(4000–1300 cal yr B.P.)experienced intensified aridification,characterized by reduced runoff and declining lake level.These evidences suggested a climatic regime of a distinctive alternation between“cold-wet”and“warm-dry”climatic regimes during the Mid-to-Late Holocene.Compared with the previous studies from adjacent regions,we speculate that the hydroclimatic evolution of Lopnur catchment possibly influenced by a complex interplay of large spatial scale forcings,including variations in annual insolation,greenhouse gas concentrations,and ice sheets,as well as the localized controls such as topographic features,vegetation cover,and cloud-radiative feedbacks.Our findings enhance the understanding of past climatic complexity and provide valuable insights for future water resource management strategies in drylands.展开更多
Aeolian deposits across the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin on the southern Tibetan Plateau record the landscape and atmospheric evolution of Earth's Third Pole.The complex mountain-basin system exhibits nonlinear resp...Aeolian deposits across the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin on the southern Tibetan Plateau record the landscape and atmospheric evolution of Earth's Third Pole.The complex mountain-basin system exhibits nonlinear responses to climate forcing,complicating the interpretation of its high-altitude environmental dynamics.Investigating the magnetic enhancement mechanism of aeolian deposits offers an opportunity to decipher climate signals.Our analysis of three aeolian sections from the basin indicates that magnetic minerals are predominantly low-coercivity ferrimagnetic minerals,and grain sizes fine from upper to lower reaches due to climate shifts from arid to humid.Magnetic enhancement in the upper reaches primarily originates from dust input,while dust input and pedogenesis contribute variably over time in the middle and lower reaches.Similar complex patterns occur in the Ili basin,a mountain-basin system in northwestern China.They differ from the Chinese Loess Plateau,where long-distance-transported dust is well-mixed and the pedogenic enhancement model is applied,and desert peripheries where short-distance dust is transported and the dust input model is applied.We summarize the magnetic enhancement mechanisms in various settings and offer a new framework for applying magnetic techniques in paleoclimate reconstruction within global mountain-basin systems,which highlights the need for caution in interpreting their magnetic susceptibility records.展开更多
High-altitude glacier-lake systems in the eastern Pamir Plateau,Tajikistan,are highly sensitive elements of Central Asia’s cryosphere and are vital for sustaining regional water resources.The Yashilkul Lake is locate...High-altitude glacier-lake systems in the eastern Pamir Plateau,Tajikistan,are highly sensitive elements of Central Asia’s cryosphere and are vital for sustaining regional water resources.The Yashilkul Lake is located within a tectonic depression dammed by an ancient rockslide,forming a large alpine lake.This lake is currently impacted by intensified warming,glacier retreat,and poorly quantified hydrological shift.The primary objective of this study is to assess multi-decadal changes in the Yashilkul and Bulunkul lakes and their surrounding cryosphere between 1994 and 2024.The changes were analyzed using multitemporal Landsat imagery and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys,complemented by in situ meteorological observations from the Bulunkul meteorological station spanning the period from 1990 to 2024.Glacier and lake boundaries were extracted from Landsat data,primarily by applying the normalized difference water index,supplemented by manual delineation.UAV photogrammetry characterized dam morphology and adjacent ponds,and climate trends were evaluated with the modified Mann-Kendall test.A significant warming trend of 0.096℃/a and pronounced interannual precipitation variability have driven persistent glacier retreat and lake surface area fluctuations.The Yashilkul Lake’s surface area decreased from 36.40 (±1.15) km^(2) in 2010 to 31.94 (±0.54) km^(2) in 2020 and partially rebounded to 33.99 (±0.60) km^(2) in 2024,while the Bulunkul Lake’s surface area remained nearly stable owing to limited glacial influence.Additionally,UAV surveys conducted in 2022 and 2024 revealed main features of the Yashilkul Lake:rockslidedammed origin,perched ponds along the dam body,and an artificial canal regulating its outflow.Nearby glaciers,particularly Glacier No.369,exhibited strong frontal retreat and proglacial lake expansion.The proglacial lake expanded nearly fourfold from 0.08 (±0.01)km^(2) in 2000 to 0.33 (±0.02) km^(2) in 2024,raising concerns about potential glacial lake outburst floods that could impact the Yashilkul Lake and compromise the integrity of its natural dam.The findings highlight accelerating hydrological and cryospheric transformations in the Pamir Plateau,emphasizing the need for sustained monitoring of glacier-lake systems owing to their critical implications for water security,ecological stability,and downstream hazard management.展开更多
The Qinba Mountains are climatically and ecologically recognized as the north-south transitional zone of China.Analysis of its phenology is critical for comprehending the response of vegetation to climatic change.We r...The Qinba Mountains are climatically and ecologically recognized as the north-south transitional zone of China.Analysis of its phenology is critical for comprehending the response of vegetation to climatic change.We retrieved the start of spring phenology(SOS)of eight forest communities from the MODIS products and adopted it as an indicator for spring phenology.Trend analysis,partial correlation analysis,and GeoDetector were employed to reveal the spatio-temporal patterns and climatic drivers of SOS.The results indicated that the SOS presented an advance trend from 2001 to 2020,with a mean rate of−0.473 d yr^(−1).The SOS of most forests correlated negatively with air temperature(TEMP)and positively with precipitation(PRE),suggesting that rising TEMP and increasing PRE in spring would forward and delay SOS,respectively.The dominant factors influencing the sensitivity of SOS to climatic variables were altitude,forest type,and latitude,while the effects of slope and aspect were relatively minor.The response of SOS to climatic factors varied significantly in space and among forest communities,partly due to the influence of altitude,slope,and aspect.展开更多
Species richness in any area results from the interplay of the processes of speciation,extinction,and dispersal.The relationships between species richness and climate should be considered as an outcome of the effects ...Species richness in any area results from the interplay of the processes of speciation,extinction,and dispersal.The relationships between species richness and climate should be considered as an outcome of the effects of climate on speciation,extinction,and dispersal.Diversificationrate represents the balance of speciation and extinction rates over time.Here,I explore diversificationrates in mosses across geographic and climatic gradients worldwide.Specifically,I investigate latitudinal patterns and climatic associations of the mean diversificationrate of mosses at global,hemispheric,and smaller scales.I findthat the mean diversificationrate of mosses is positively correlated with species richness of mosses,increases with decreasing latitude and increasing mean annual temperature and annual precipitation,and is more strongly associated with mean annual temperature than with annual precipitation.These findingsshed light on variation of species richness in mosses across the world.The negative relationship between species richness and latitude and the positive relationship between species richness and mean diversificationrate in mosses suggest that higher moss species richness at lower latitudes might have resulted,at least to some degree,from higher moss diversificationrates at lower latitudes.展开更多
In this paper,Wuzhou City of Guangxi was taken as the research object.Through the design of a climatic data warehousing system,the decoding methods of surface meteorological data and their application in the managemen...In this paper,Wuzhou City of Guangxi was taken as the research object.Through the design of a climatic data warehousing system,the decoding methods of surface meteorological data and their application in the management of climatic data were explored.Based on the parsing technology of the monthly report of surface meteorological records(A-file),the design of Wuzhou climatic data warehousing system was realized,completing the precise extraction and database construction of observational elements such as regional temperature,wind direction,and weather phenomena.Based on this system,the meteorological data in 2024 were analyzed,and the probabilistic characteristics of dominant wind direction in Wuzhou(northeast wind accounting for the largest proportion),the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of extreme temperatures(annual extreme high temperature of 37.1℃in August and extreme low temperature of 1.9℃in January),and the general climatic overview of Wuzhou City(annual precipitation 3.2%higher than the standard value)were revealed.The research shows that climate change has a significant impact on agricultural production and economic development in Wuzhou City,and the construction of a reasonable climatic data database is of great significance for enhancing professional meteorological service capabilities in the context of climate change.This study not only provides a scientific basis for the economic development of Wuzhou region,but also offers reference ideas for other regions to cope with regional climate adaptation planning.展开更多
Drought significantly constrains vegetation growth and reduces terrestrial carbon sinks.Currently,the spatiotemporal patterns and mechanisms of the differential impacts of soil and meteorological droughts on vegetatio...Drought significantly constrains vegetation growth and reduces terrestrial carbon sinks.Currently,the spatiotemporal patterns and mechanisms of the differential impacts of soil and meteorological droughts on vegetation productivity remain inadequately understood.In this study,we analyzed soil moisture(SM),vapor pressure deficit(VPD),and gross primary productivity(GPP)to investigate their spatiotemporal patterns and the combined effects on GPP over China.The results revealed that:(1)Soil drought and meteorological drought generally exhibited temporally synchronous trends across China.(2)GPP was predominantly affected by the combined and synchronous effects of both SM and VPD,although their effects displayed directional variability differences in certain regions.(3)SM demonstrated a greater relative importance on GPP than VPD across more than half of the regions in China,whereas deciduous broadleaf forests were the only vegetation type primarily affected by VPD.(4)Under the lag effects,both SM and VPD exhibited bidirectional Granger causality with GPP,with the interaction between VPD and GPP proving more pronounced than that of SM.Our research provides valuable insights into the mechanisms through which SM and VPD influence GPP,contributing to improved predictions vegetation productivity and implementing ecological restoration.展开更多
Based on the data of temperature,precipitation and sunshine at Longhui National Station from 1981 to 2023,the temperature data at 22 regional stations from 2011 to 2023,and lily planting data at Lilium brownii var.vir...Based on the data of temperature,precipitation and sunshine at Longhui National Station from 1981 to 2023,the temperature data at 22 regional stations from 2011 to 2023,and lily planting data at Lilium brownii var.viridulum base,the feasibility of meteorological conditions for the growth of L.brownii var.viridulum was analyzed.The results showed that the climatic conditions in Longhui were generally suitable for planting L.brownii var.viridulum.The southern hilly area was the most suitable climate area,the northern mountainous area was the suitable climate area,and the northwest mountainous area was the more suitable climate area.It can provide favorable meteorological protection for farmers,reduce the impact of adverse meteorological conditions on L.brownii var.viridulum,and improve the economic benefits of lily production by making full use of Longhui climatic conditions and doing a good job in the meteorological service of L.brownii var.viridulum.展开更多
Based on the environmental conditions for the growth and development of potatoes,the impact of climatic conditions on potato cultivation in Shangdu County was analyzed.Due to significant fluctuations in temperature du...Based on the environmental conditions for the growth and development of potatoes,the impact of climatic conditions on potato cultivation in Shangdu County was analyzed.Due to significant fluctuations in temperature during the seedling stage of potatoes,less precipitation,and uneven temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation,the yield of potatoes is unstable.Therefore,scientific planting suggestions and meteorological service countermeasures were proposed.展开更多
The study investigated the relationship between climatic variables and food security in households in the districts of Huancayo(Chongos Alto,Viques,Pucará,and Huancayo)during the COVID-19 pandemic.A cross-section...The study investigated the relationship between climatic variables and food security in households in the districts of Huancayo(Chongos Alto,Viques,Pucará,and Huancayo)during the COVID-19 pandemic.A cross-sectional observational study was conducted with a sample of 272 households out of 36,453.Food security data were collected through ques-tionnaires,and climatic variables(temperature,humidity,and precipitation)were obtained from CEPREANDES weather stations between September 2020 and February 2021.The results showed that 44.49% of households experienced mild food insecurity,while 55.5%experienced moderate food insecurity.Recorded climatic conditions included maximum temperatures of 28℃ in Pucaráand 27℃ in Huancayo,and a minimum of-8℃ in Chongos Alto.Relative humidity reached 89%in Pucaráand 87%in Chongos Alto and Huancayo,while maximum rainfall was 28 mm in Chongos Alto and 23 mm in Huancayo.Multivariate analysis revealed that relative humidity had a significant association with moderate food insecurity(B=16.406;95% CI:-64735 to 64768),increasing the risk 16 times under high humidity conditions.No significant relationships were found with temperature(B=-7.107;95% CI:-77320 to 77306)or precipitation(B=-7.831;95% CI:-25690 to 25674).It was concluded that relative humidity is a key factor in food security,particularly during the pandemic,while other climatic variables showed no significant impacts.These findings highlight the need for urgent adaptations to climatic challenges in vulnerable contexts.展开更多
Pinus densiflora is a pine species native to the Korean peninsula,and seed orchards have supplied mate-rial needed for afforestation in South Korea.Climate vari-ables affecting seed production have not been identified...Pinus densiflora is a pine species native to the Korean peninsula,and seed orchards have supplied mate-rial needed for afforestation in South Korea.Climate vari-ables affecting seed production have not been identified.The purpose of this study was to determine climate variables that influence annual seed production of two seed orchards using multiple linear regression(MLR),elastic net regres-sion(ENR)and partial least square regression(PLSR)mod-els.The PLSR model included 12 climatic variables from 2003 to 2020 and explained 74.3%of the total variation in seed production.It showed better predictive performance(R2=0.662)than the EN(0.516)and the MLR(0.366)mod-els.Among the 12 climatic variables,July temperature two years prior to seed production and July precipitation after one year had the strongest influence on seed production.The time periods indicated by the two variables corresponded to pollen cone initiation and female gametophyte development.The results will be helpful for developing seed collection plans,selecting new orchard sites with favorable climatic conditions,and investigating the relationships between seed production and climatic factors in related pine species.展开更多
Global warming has led to the frequent occurrence of extreme climatic events(ECEs)in the ecologically frag ile Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.Rural households face strong barriers in adaption,and food production is seriously ...Global warming has led to the frequent occurrence of extreme climatic events(ECEs)in the ecologically frag ile Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.Rural households face strong barriers in adaption,and food production is seriously threatened.Current methods for increasing household adaptability take a holistic point of view,but do not ac curately identify groups experiencing different adaptive barriers.To better identify different barriers,this paper examines natural,economic,cognitive,and technical barriers.A total of 17 indicators were selected to com prehensively evaluate the degree of barriers to crops adaptation in response to ECEs.Key factors were further analyzed to identify paths to break down the barriers.The results showed the following.(1)Natural barriers were present at the highest degree,economic barriers appear to be smallest,and the overall barriers were bi ased towards the lower quartile.10.82%of the households with the highest barriers.(2)67.38%of households report taking adaptive measures in crops production.The increase of the barriers leads to an increase and then a decrease in the possibility of adaptive behavior.(3)Addressing technical barriers is key to rapidly increasing household adaptive behavior in response to ECEs.The study provides recommendations for local governments to improve household adaptation behavior from two perspectives:short-term and long-term optimization path ways.This study can help governments quickly locate households with different classes of barriers,and propose more targeted adaptation policies.The ultimate goal is to ensure the sustainability of crops production and the well-being of households in northeastern part of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.展开更多
Previous studies have indicated that sediment gravity flow deposits developed in lacustrine active extensional rift basins are primarily influenced by tectonics and to a lesser extent by climate.Our present work revea...Previous studies have indicated that sediment gravity flow deposits developed in lacustrine active extensional rift basins are primarily influenced by tectonics and to a lesser extent by climate.Our present work reveals that climate can obscure the effect of tectonic subsidence by regulating sediment supply;conversely,tectonics can impede the sedimentary manifestation of climatic impacts.Here a case study has been presented to assess the impact of climate-modulated rapid lake-level rise and tectonic subsidence on the development of coarse-grained gravity flow deposits in the Dongying rift margin of the Bohai Bay Basin,eastern China.The lithofacies analysis reveals frequent bed amalgamation,abundant thick massive coarse-grained deposits,widespread cross bedding and plant fragments,and incomplete composite bed formed by high-energy erosion,indicating that the hyperpycnal flow is an important mechanism driving the deposition of these coarse-grained sediments.Detailed sequence stratigraphic analysis and sediment dispersal pattern suggest that the long-striped nearshore subaqueous fan systems induced by outburst-flood hyperpycnal flow distributed along the border fault,are primarily controlled by long-term tectonics,while the rapid rise of lake level driven by short-term climate change possibly intensifies seasonal flood-generated hyperpycnal flow occurrences and consequently promotes the basinal fan progradation.The maximum scale of these coarse-grained gravity flow deposits of the basinal fan systems are typically attained during the transgressive systems tract,which deviates from the classical sequence stratigraphic model.Furthermore,it presented a continuous transition from the proximal to the distal part,encompassing traction flows and turbidity currents during the periods of relatively stable tectonics.Nevertheless,gravel-rich debris flows appear to predominate the dispersion of coarse-grained sediments during periods characterized by intense tectonic activity.The coarse-grained gravity flow deposits in the lacustrine rift margin reported here,challenge the traditional beliefs:this study suggests that subaqueous deposits abundantly preserved in the transgressive setting.展开更多
Aerosol dynamics in semi-arid cities are key to understanding air quality and climate interactions.This study examines the spatiotemporal variability of Aerosol Optical Depth(AOD)over Jaipur,India,from 2018 to 2024 us...Aerosol dynamics in semi-arid cities are key to understanding air quality and climate interactions.This study examines the spatiotemporal variability of Aerosol Optical Depth(AOD)over Jaipur,India,from 2018 to 2024 using MODIS observations at 470,500,and 550 nm,combined with meteorological data and ground-based air quality records.The Mann–Kendall test identified a statistically significant decreasing trend at 500 nm(slope=–2.07,p<0.05),while 470 and 550 nm showed weak,nonsignificant declines.AOD peaked in April–June,declined during the monsoon,and rose again in October–November due to burning and festivals.Correlation analysis demonstrated strong positive associations with PM_(2.5),PM_(10),and temperature,with minimum temperature emerging as the most influential predictor,whereas relative humidity showed weak or negative relationships.Anomaly detection confirmed episodic high-AOD events during dust storms,winter inversions,and agricultural burning.Predictive modelling using Multiple Linear Regression(MLR)and Random Forest highlighted the complementary roles of linear drivers.Nonlinear dynamics,with Random Forest achieving high predictive accuracy(R^(2)=0.892 for training,0.588 for testing).These findings demonstrate that aerosol variability in Jaipur is governed by a dual influence of natural dust and anthropogenic emissions,with wavelength-specific responses.The results provide scientific evidence for integrating satellite monitoring,ground observations,and predictive models into urban air quality management and climate adaptation strategies in semi-arid regions.展开更多
The survival and mortality of conifer trees in response to climate change,particularly drought stress,have received considerable attention.However,it is crucial to explore the growth dynamics of the same conifer speci...The survival and mortality of conifer trees in response to climate change,particularly drought stress,have received considerable attention.However,it is crucial to explore the growth dynamics of the same conifer species in response to climate change in different climatic habitats.In this study,we aimed to quantify variations in the radial growth processes of conifer species,analyze their resilience during drought periods under different climatic habitats,and assess the impact of climate adaptation on conifer growth.We focused on two conifer species,Picea crassifolia(spruce)and Pinus tabuliformis(pine),which are distributed in both a humid habitat and a dry habitat in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.Growth and resilience dynamics were identified across both climatic habitats and the contributions of temperature and moisture to the growth of the two species were simulated under drought stress using the VS-oscilloscope model.Spruce growth exhibited significant variability between climatic habitats.Specifically,the spruce growth rate declined in response to drought in the dry habitat(-0.91 cm^(2)per decade,p<0.01).In contrast,pine growth remained relatively stable(humid habitat:-0.03 cm^(2)per decade;dry habitat:0.25 cm^(2)per decade,p>0.01),although it still responded to stress during the growing season(p<0.05).Furthermore,spruce displayed reduced resistance during stress in dry habitats(-30.11%),while pine exhibited an enhanced recovery of growth rates to ensure survival(+39.62%).The climate adaptation strategies of the species were linked to the contribution of temperature and moisture to their growth rates.Moisture is critical for the growth recovery of both conifers in dry habitats when temperature-associated growth displays a‘bimodal’pattern during the growing season.These findings have significant ecological implications for understanding conifer forest processes in the context of global climate change.展开更多
In order to gain a deeper understanding of the impact of climatic conditions on mango cultivation in Jingdong County,according to the requirements for meteorological conditions from the biological characteristics of m...In order to gain a deeper understanding of the impact of climatic conditions on mango cultivation in Jingdong County,according to the requirements for meteorological conditions from the biological characteristics of mango trees,the climatic conditions of Jingdong station and the main mango production areas in Yunnan Province were compared,and the climatic characteristics in the high-and low-yield year were analyzed.The results show that in the middle and low altitude areas of Jingdong County,winter was dry and relatively warm,and summer was not extremely hot(the average temperature in the hottest month 23.8℃);the dry and wet seasons were distinct,and rainy and hot weather occurred in the same season(from June to September);there was sufficient sunshine in the winter half year.The main climatic advantages for mango cultivation in Jingdong County are manifested as follows:the overwintering temperature and light conditions were relatively favorable(the average temperature in the coldest month was 11.3℃,and average sunshine duration in the three months of winter was 6.3 h/d);the annual total heat was moderate,and≥10℃accumulated temperature was 6600℃·d;the temperature effectiveness during the main growing season of mangoes was relatively higher;the sunshine duration and climate humidity during the flower bud differentiation period were moderate(sunshine duration was 6.4 h/d,and monthly precipitation was 19.2 mm);the rainfall was abundant during the maturation period of fruits.The insufficient light and heat intensity during the maturation period of fruits(average sunshine duration was 4.4 h/d,and average temperature was 23.2℃from June to September),the susceptibility to the influence of spring drought during the young fruit stage of mangoes(precipitation was 141 mm from March to May),and relatively lower temperature during the flowering and pollination period in some years jointly constituted the main climatic constraints on local mango yield.展开更多
This study introduces the Bioclimatic Emission Amplification Theory(BEAT),a novel framework for detecting and forecasting how terrestrial ecosystems,particularly the Amazon Basin,transition from being carbon sinks to ...This study introduces the Bioclimatic Emission Amplification Theory(BEAT),a novel framework for detecting and forecasting how terrestrial ecosystems,particularly the Amazon Basin,transition from being carbon sinks to becoming carbon sources under compounded bioclimatic stress.BEAT synthesizes satellite-derived data from 2001 to 2022 and integrates temperature anomalies,vapor pressure deficit(VPD),fire activity,and vegetation degradation into a Compound Stress Index(CSI).Methodologically,the study applies piecewise regression,changepoint analysis,and early warning signal(EWS)metrics,including rolling variance and lag-1 autocorrelation,to identify nonlinear emission tipping points and ecological resilience loss.Machine learning models such as XGBoost and SHAP were employed to evaluate the predictive relevance of CSI components and enhance model interpretability.Results reveal a critical CSI threshold(≥0.6),beyond which Net Ecosystem Exchange(NEE)exhibits abrupt positive anomalies,indicating carbon emission amplification.EWS metrics significantly increased prior to emission spikes,validating BEAT’s predictive capacity for ecological destabilization.In addition,spatial clustering and time-lagged correlation analysis confirmed the alignment between compound stress hotspots and emission anomalies,and when compared to traditional Earth System Models(ESMs),BEAT uniquely captures synergistic stress interactions and nonlinearity.The findings underscore BEAT’s potential to improve early warning systems,REDD+monitoring frameworks,and climate adaptation planning.Its scalable design enables application across vulnerable biomes globally and offers a transformative tool for anticipating biosphere-climate tipping points and informing proactive ecosystem governance.展开更多
基金supported by the Institution of Eminence,University of Delhi,grant number[IoE/2023-24/12/FRP].
文摘This research offers valuable insights into the relationship between land use and daytime climatic comfort in high-rise urban developments in Delhi.This city is navigating rapid urbanisation and facing critical environmental challenges like pollution,heat stress,land degradation etc.The study aims to enhance understanding of how diverse land use patterns influence thermal comfort by utilising satellite data from the Landsat/Resourcesat series for classification and MODIS for land surface temperature(LST)extraction.The findings highlight that regions with dense construction and limited green and blue spaces tend to experience lower levels of climatic comfort,with 17.17 Percent of Delhi’s geographical area feeling the adverse effects of the Urban Heat Island(UHI)phenomenon.On a positive note,40.20 Percent of the area is associated with high climatic comfort,primarily due to natural features such as vegetation and water bodies.Furthermore,the research indicates a noteworthy increase in land surface temperatures(LST)from 2000 to 2022,with peak recorded temperatures rising from 38.35℃ in 2000 to 47.27℃ in 2022.In summary,this study emphasises the importance of understanding and addressing the UHI effect in urban settings,providing constructive recommendations for policymakers and stakeholders dedicated to fostering improved livability and sustainability in urban environments.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.42001084)the Major Science and Technology Projects of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region(Nos.2022A03009-2,2022A03009)the Third Xinjiang Scientific Expedition Program(No.2022xjkk1303)。
文摘Exploring hydroclimatic variability and its driving mechanisms during the Holocene is essential for comprehending both historical and prospective responses of water resources to climatic shifts in Arid Central Asia(ACA)region.However,debate persists regarding whether dryland lakes in this region exhibited aridification or humidification during the Holocene.Lopnur serves as the terminal lake of Tarim rivers during the Holocene,which offers an ideal natural laboratory to address the questions.In this study,a high-resolution chronological framework was established through precise radiocarbon dating.Multi-proxy analyses,including geochemical composition,grain size distributions,MS,LOI,and C/N ratios were conducted from a lacustrine profile in the core area of“Great ear”in the southern part of Lopnur catchment.These analyses enabled the reconstruction of hydrological dynamics and facilitated the disentanglement of independent signals linked to climate variability,runoff fluctuations,and lake-level changes.The results demonstrate that the MidHolocene(7800–4000 cal yr B.P.)was characterized by cold and humid conditions,resulting in elevated surface runoff and lake level.The Late Holocene(4000–1300 cal yr B.P.)experienced intensified aridification,characterized by reduced runoff and declining lake level.These evidences suggested a climatic regime of a distinctive alternation between“cold-wet”and“warm-dry”climatic regimes during the Mid-to-Late Holocene.Compared with the previous studies from adjacent regions,we speculate that the hydroclimatic evolution of Lopnur catchment possibly influenced by a complex interplay of large spatial scale forcings,including variations in annual insolation,greenhouse gas concentrations,and ice sheets,as well as the localized controls such as topographic features,vegetation cover,and cloud-radiative feedbacks.Our findings enhance the understanding of past climatic complexity and provide valuable insights for future water resource management strategies in drylands.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42501182The Open Foundation of Key Laboratory of Western China’s Environmental System,Ministry of Education,Lanzhou Universitythe Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,No.lzujbky-2024-jdzx01。
文摘Aeolian deposits across the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin on the southern Tibetan Plateau record the landscape and atmospheric evolution of Earth's Third Pole.The complex mountain-basin system exhibits nonlinear responses to climate forcing,complicating the interpretation of its high-altitude environmental dynamics.Investigating the magnetic enhancement mechanism of aeolian deposits offers an opportunity to decipher climate signals.Our analysis of three aeolian sections from the basin indicates that magnetic minerals are predominantly low-coercivity ferrimagnetic minerals,and grain sizes fine from upper to lower reaches due to climate shifts from arid to humid.Magnetic enhancement in the upper reaches primarily originates from dust input,while dust input and pedogenesis contribute variably over time in the middle and lower reaches.Similar complex patterns occur in the Ili basin,a mountain-basin system in northwestern China.They differ from the Chinese Loess Plateau,where long-distance-transported dust is well-mixed and the pedogenic enhancement model is applied,and desert peripheries where short-distance dust is transported and the dust input model is applied.We summarize the magnetic enhancement mechanisms in various settings and offer a new framework for applying magnetic techniques in paleoclimate reconstruction within global mountain-basin systems,which highlights the need for caution in interpreting their magnetic susceptibility records.
基金funded by the Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (42230708,42361144887)the Tianshan Talent Project of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China (2022TSYCLJ0056)。
文摘High-altitude glacier-lake systems in the eastern Pamir Plateau,Tajikistan,are highly sensitive elements of Central Asia’s cryosphere and are vital for sustaining regional water resources.The Yashilkul Lake is located within a tectonic depression dammed by an ancient rockslide,forming a large alpine lake.This lake is currently impacted by intensified warming,glacier retreat,and poorly quantified hydrological shift.The primary objective of this study is to assess multi-decadal changes in the Yashilkul and Bulunkul lakes and their surrounding cryosphere between 1994 and 2024.The changes were analyzed using multitemporal Landsat imagery and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveys,complemented by in situ meteorological observations from the Bulunkul meteorological station spanning the period from 1990 to 2024.Glacier and lake boundaries were extracted from Landsat data,primarily by applying the normalized difference water index,supplemented by manual delineation.UAV photogrammetry characterized dam morphology and adjacent ponds,and climate trends were evaluated with the modified Mann-Kendall test.A significant warming trend of 0.096℃/a and pronounced interannual precipitation variability have driven persistent glacier retreat and lake surface area fluctuations.The Yashilkul Lake’s surface area decreased from 36.40 (±1.15) km^(2) in 2010 to 31.94 (±0.54) km^(2) in 2020 and partially rebounded to 33.99 (±0.60) km^(2) in 2024,while the Bulunkul Lake’s surface area remained nearly stable owing to limited glacial influence.Additionally,UAV surveys conducted in 2022 and 2024 revealed main features of the Yashilkul Lake:rockslidedammed origin,perched ponds along the dam body,and an artificial canal regulating its outflow.Nearby glaciers,particularly Glacier No.369,exhibited strong frontal retreat and proglacial lake expansion.The proglacial lake expanded nearly fourfold from 0.08 (±0.01)km^(2) in 2000 to 0.33 (±0.02) km^(2) in 2024,raising concerns about potential glacial lake outburst floods that could impact the Yashilkul Lake and compromise the integrity of its natural dam.The findings highlight accelerating hydrological and cryospheric transformations in the Pamir Plateau,emphasizing the need for sustained monitoring of glacier-lake systems owing to their critical implications for water security,ecological stability,and downstream hazard management.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2023YFE0208100,No.2021YFC3000201Natural Science Foundation of Henan Province,No.232300420165。
文摘The Qinba Mountains are climatically and ecologically recognized as the north-south transitional zone of China.Analysis of its phenology is critical for comprehending the response of vegetation to climatic change.We retrieved the start of spring phenology(SOS)of eight forest communities from the MODIS products and adopted it as an indicator for spring phenology.Trend analysis,partial correlation analysis,and GeoDetector were employed to reveal the spatio-temporal patterns and climatic drivers of SOS.The results indicated that the SOS presented an advance trend from 2001 to 2020,with a mean rate of−0.473 d yr^(−1).The SOS of most forests correlated negatively with air temperature(TEMP)and positively with precipitation(PRE),suggesting that rising TEMP and increasing PRE in spring would forward and delay SOS,respectively.The dominant factors influencing the sensitivity of SOS to climatic variables were altitude,forest type,and latitude,while the effects of slope and aspect were relatively minor.The response of SOS to climatic factors varied significantly in space and among forest communities,partly due to the influence of altitude,slope,and aspect.
文摘Species richness in any area results from the interplay of the processes of speciation,extinction,and dispersal.The relationships between species richness and climate should be considered as an outcome of the effects of climate on speciation,extinction,and dispersal.Diversificationrate represents the balance of speciation and extinction rates over time.Here,I explore diversificationrates in mosses across geographic and climatic gradients worldwide.Specifically,I investigate latitudinal patterns and climatic associations of the mean diversificationrate of mosses at global,hemispheric,and smaller scales.I findthat the mean diversificationrate of mosses is positively correlated with species richness of mosses,increases with decreasing latitude and increasing mean annual temperature and annual precipitation,and is more strongly associated with mean annual temperature than with annual precipitation.These findingsshed light on variation of species richness in mosses across the world.The negative relationship between species richness and latitude and the positive relationship between species richness and mean diversificationrate in mosses suggest that higher moss species richness at lower latitudes might have resulted,at least to some degree,from higher moss diversificationrates at lower latitudes.
基金Supported by the Fifth Batch of Innovation Teams of Wuzhou Meteorological Bureau“Wuzhou Innovation Team for Enhancing the Comprehensive Meteorological Observation Ability through Digitization and Intelligence”Project of Wuzhou Science and Technology Bureau(202402122)Wuzhou Science and Technology Planning Project(202402119).
文摘In this paper,Wuzhou City of Guangxi was taken as the research object.Through the design of a climatic data warehousing system,the decoding methods of surface meteorological data and their application in the management of climatic data were explored.Based on the parsing technology of the monthly report of surface meteorological records(A-file),the design of Wuzhou climatic data warehousing system was realized,completing the precise extraction and database construction of observational elements such as regional temperature,wind direction,and weather phenomena.Based on this system,the meteorological data in 2024 were analyzed,and the probabilistic characteristics of dominant wind direction in Wuzhou(northeast wind accounting for the largest proportion),the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of extreme temperatures(annual extreme high temperature of 37.1℃in August and extreme low temperature of 1.9℃in January),and the general climatic overview of Wuzhou City(annual precipitation 3.2%higher than the standard value)were revealed.The research shows that climate change has a significant impact on agricultural production and economic development in Wuzhou City,and the construction of a reasonable climatic data database is of great significance for enhancing professional meteorological service capabilities in the context of climate change.This study not only provides a scientific basis for the economic development of Wuzhou region,but also offers reference ideas for other regions to cope with regional climate adaptation planning.
基金National Key Research and Development Program,No.2021xjkk0303。
文摘Drought significantly constrains vegetation growth and reduces terrestrial carbon sinks.Currently,the spatiotemporal patterns and mechanisms of the differential impacts of soil and meteorological droughts on vegetation productivity remain inadequately understood.In this study,we analyzed soil moisture(SM),vapor pressure deficit(VPD),and gross primary productivity(GPP)to investigate their spatiotemporal patterns and the combined effects on GPP over China.The results revealed that:(1)Soil drought and meteorological drought generally exhibited temporally synchronous trends across China.(2)GPP was predominantly affected by the combined and synchronous effects of both SM and VPD,although their effects displayed directional variability differences in certain regions.(3)SM demonstrated a greater relative importance on GPP than VPD across more than half of the regions in China,whereas deciduous broadleaf forests were the only vegetation type primarily affected by VPD.(4)Under the lag effects,both SM and VPD exhibited bidirectional Granger causality with GPP,with the interaction between VPD and GPP proving more pronounced than that of SM.Our research provides valuable insights into the mechanisms through which SM and VPD influence GPP,contributing to improved predictions vegetation productivity and implementing ecological restoration.
文摘Based on the data of temperature,precipitation and sunshine at Longhui National Station from 1981 to 2023,the temperature data at 22 regional stations from 2011 to 2023,and lily planting data at Lilium brownii var.viridulum base,the feasibility of meteorological conditions for the growth of L.brownii var.viridulum was analyzed.The results showed that the climatic conditions in Longhui were generally suitable for planting L.brownii var.viridulum.The southern hilly area was the most suitable climate area,the northern mountainous area was the suitable climate area,and the northwest mountainous area was the more suitable climate area.It can provide favorable meteorological protection for farmers,reduce the impact of adverse meteorological conditions on L.brownii var.viridulum,and improve the economic benefits of lily production by making full use of Longhui climatic conditions and doing a good job in the meteorological service of L.brownii var.viridulum.
文摘Based on the environmental conditions for the growth and development of potatoes,the impact of climatic conditions on potato cultivation in Shangdu County was analyzed.Due to significant fluctuations in temperature during the seedling stage of potatoes,less precipitation,and uneven temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation,the yield of potatoes is unstable.Therefore,scientific planting suggestions and meteorological service countermeasures were proposed.
文摘The study investigated the relationship between climatic variables and food security in households in the districts of Huancayo(Chongos Alto,Viques,Pucará,and Huancayo)during the COVID-19 pandemic.A cross-sectional observational study was conducted with a sample of 272 households out of 36,453.Food security data were collected through ques-tionnaires,and climatic variables(temperature,humidity,and precipitation)were obtained from CEPREANDES weather stations between September 2020 and February 2021.The results showed that 44.49% of households experienced mild food insecurity,while 55.5%experienced moderate food insecurity.Recorded climatic conditions included maximum temperatures of 28℃ in Pucaráand 27℃ in Huancayo,and a minimum of-8℃ in Chongos Alto.Relative humidity reached 89%in Pucaráand 87%in Chongos Alto and Huancayo,while maximum rainfall was 28 mm in Chongos Alto and 23 mm in Huancayo.Multivariate analysis revealed that relative humidity had a significant association with moderate food insecurity(B=16.406;95% CI:-64735 to 64768),increasing the risk 16 times under high humidity conditions.No significant relationships were found with temperature(B=-7.107;95% CI:-77320 to 77306)or precipitation(B=-7.831;95% CI:-25690 to 25674).It was concluded that relative humidity is a key factor in food security,particularly during the pandemic,while other climatic variables showed no significant impacts.These findings highlight the need for urgent adaptations to climatic challenges in vulnerable contexts.
基金supported by the National Institute of Forest Sciencethe R&D Program for Forest Science Technology (No.2022458B10-2224-0201) of the Korea Forest Service
文摘Pinus densiflora is a pine species native to the Korean peninsula,and seed orchards have supplied mate-rial needed for afforestation in South Korea.Climate vari-ables affecting seed production have not been identified.The purpose of this study was to determine climate variables that influence annual seed production of two seed orchards using multiple linear regression(MLR),elastic net regres-sion(ENR)and partial least square regression(PLSR)mod-els.The PLSR model included 12 climatic variables from 2003 to 2020 and explained 74.3%of the total variation in seed production.It showed better predictive performance(R2=0.662)than the EN(0.516)and the MLR(0.366)mod-els.Among the 12 climatic variables,July temperature two years prior to seed production and July precipitation after one year had the strongest influence on seed production.The time periods indicated by the two variables corresponded to pollen cone initiation and female gametophyte development.The results will be helpful for developing seed collection plans,selecting new orchard sites with favorable climatic conditions,and investigating the relationships between seed production and climatic factors in related pine species.
基金supported by the Second Scientific Expedition to the Qinghai‒Xizang Plateau(Grant No.2019QZKK0405-05)method-ological support from the State Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.72033005)is also appreciated greatly.
文摘Global warming has led to the frequent occurrence of extreme climatic events(ECEs)in the ecologically frag ile Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.Rural households face strong barriers in adaption,and food production is seriously threatened.Current methods for increasing household adaptability take a holistic point of view,but do not ac curately identify groups experiencing different adaptive barriers.To better identify different barriers,this paper examines natural,economic,cognitive,and technical barriers.A total of 17 indicators were selected to com prehensively evaluate the degree of barriers to crops adaptation in response to ECEs.Key factors were further analyzed to identify paths to break down the barriers.The results showed the following.(1)Natural barriers were present at the highest degree,economic barriers appear to be smallest,and the overall barriers were bi ased towards the lower quartile.10.82%of the households with the highest barriers.(2)67.38%of households report taking adaptive measures in crops production.The increase of the barriers leads to an increase and then a decrease in the possibility of adaptive behavior.(3)Addressing technical barriers is key to rapidly increasing household adaptive behavior in response to ECEs.The study provides recommendations for local governments to improve household adaptation behavior from two perspectives:short-term and long-term optimization path ways.This study can help governments quickly locate households with different classes of barriers,and propose more targeted adaptation policies.The ultimate goal is to ensure the sustainability of crops production and the well-being of households in northeastern part of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.42172109,41872113,42172108)China National Petroleum Corporation-China University of Petroleum(Beijing)strategic cooperation science and technology project(ZLZX2020-02)+2 种基金Science Foundation of China University of Petroleum(Beijing)(Nos.2462020BJRC002,2462020YXZZ020)Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing(CSTB2022NSCQ-MSX1166)Science and Technology Research Program of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission(KJQN202201511).
文摘Previous studies have indicated that sediment gravity flow deposits developed in lacustrine active extensional rift basins are primarily influenced by tectonics and to a lesser extent by climate.Our present work reveals that climate can obscure the effect of tectonic subsidence by regulating sediment supply;conversely,tectonics can impede the sedimentary manifestation of climatic impacts.Here a case study has been presented to assess the impact of climate-modulated rapid lake-level rise and tectonic subsidence on the development of coarse-grained gravity flow deposits in the Dongying rift margin of the Bohai Bay Basin,eastern China.The lithofacies analysis reveals frequent bed amalgamation,abundant thick massive coarse-grained deposits,widespread cross bedding and plant fragments,and incomplete composite bed formed by high-energy erosion,indicating that the hyperpycnal flow is an important mechanism driving the deposition of these coarse-grained sediments.Detailed sequence stratigraphic analysis and sediment dispersal pattern suggest that the long-striped nearshore subaqueous fan systems induced by outburst-flood hyperpycnal flow distributed along the border fault,are primarily controlled by long-term tectonics,while the rapid rise of lake level driven by short-term climate change possibly intensifies seasonal flood-generated hyperpycnal flow occurrences and consequently promotes the basinal fan progradation.The maximum scale of these coarse-grained gravity flow deposits of the basinal fan systems are typically attained during the transgressive systems tract,which deviates from the classical sequence stratigraphic model.Furthermore,it presented a continuous transition from the proximal to the distal part,encompassing traction flows and turbidity currents during the periods of relatively stable tectonics.Nevertheless,gravel-rich debris flows appear to predominate the dispersion of coarse-grained sediments during periods characterized by intense tectonic activity.The coarse-grained gravity flow deposits in the lacustrine rift margin reported here,challenge the traditional beliefs:this study suggests that subaqueous deposits abundantly preserved in the transgressive setting.
文摘Aerosol dynamics in semi-arid cities are key to understanding air quality and climate interactions.This study examines the spatiotemporal variability of Aerosol Optical Depth(AOD)over Jaipur,India,from 2018 to 2024 using MODIS observations at 470,500,and 550 nm,combined with meteorological data and ground-based air quality records.The Mann–Kendall test identified a statistically significant decreasing trend at 500 nm(slope=–2.07,p<0.05),while 470 and 550 nm showed weak,nonsignificant declines.AOD peaked in April–June,declined during the monsoon,and rose again in October–November due to burning and festivals.Correlation analysis demonstrated strong positive associations with PM_(2.5),PM_(10),and temperature,with minimum temperature emerging as the most influential predictor,whereas relative humidity showed weak or negative relationships.Anomaly detection confirmed episodic high-AOD events during dust storms,winter inversions,and agricultural burning.Predictive modelling using Multiple Linear Regression(MLR)and Random Forest highlighted the complementary roles of linear drivers.Nonlinear dynamics,with Random Forest achieving high predictive accuracy(R^(2)=0.892 for training,0.588 for testing).These findings demonstrate that aerosol variability in Jaipur is governed by a dual influence of natural dust and anthropogenic emissions,with wavelength-specific responses.The results provide scientific evidence for integrating satellite monitoring,ground observations,and predictive models into urban air quality management and climate adaptation strategies in semi-arid regions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42371038)the Basic Research Innovation Group Project of Gansu Province(No.22JR5RA129)+1 种基金the 2022 Major Scientific Research Project Cultivation Program of Northwest Normal University(No.WNU-LKZD2022-04)the 2022 Northwest Normal University Graduate Research Grant Program(No.2022KYZZ-B066).
文摘The survival and mortality of conifer trees in response to climate change,particularly drought stress,have received considerable attention.However,it is crucial to explore the growth dynamics of the same conifer species in response to climate change in different climatic habitats.In this study,we aimed to quantify variations in the radial growth processes of conifer species,analyze their resilience during drought periods under different climatic habitats,and assess the impact of climate adaptation on conifer growth.We focused on two conifer species,Picea crassifolia(spruce)and Pinus tabuliformis(pine),which are distributed in both a humid habitat and a dry habitat in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau.Growth and resilience dynamics were identified across both climatic habitats and the contributions of temperature and moisture to the growth of the two species were simulated under drought stress using the VS-oscilloscope model.Spruce growth exhibited significant variability between climatic habitats.Specifically,the spruce growth rate declined in response to drought in the dry habitat(-0.91 cm^(2)per decade,p<0.01).In contrast,pine growth remained relatively stable(humid habitat:-0.03 cm^(2)per decade;dry habitat:0.25 cm^(2)per decade,p>0.01),although it still responded to stress during the growing season(p<0.05).Furthermore,spruce displayed reduced resistance during stress in dry habitats(-30.11%),while pine exhibited an enhanced recovery of growth rates to ensure survival(+39.62%).The climate adaptation strategies of the species were linked to the contribution of temperature and moisture to their growth rates.Moisture is critical for the growth recovery of both conifers in dry habitats when temperature-associated growth displays a‘bimodal’pattern during the growing season.These findings have significant ecological implications for understanding conifer forest processes in the context of global climate change.
基金Supported by the Meteorological Science and Technology Innovation Project of Pu'er Meteorological Bureau(PZ202416).
文摘In order to gain a deeper understanding of the impact of climatic conditions on mango cultivation in Jingdong County,according to the requirements for meteorological conditions from the biological characteristics of mango trees,the climatic conditions of Jingdong station and the main mango production areas in Yunnan Province were compared,and the climatic characteristics in the high-and low-yield year were analyzed.The results show that in the middle and low altitude areas of Jingdong County,winter was dry and relatively warm,and summer was not extremely hot(the average temperature in the hottest month 23.8℃);the dry and wet seasons were distinct,and rainy and hot weather occurred in the same season(from June to September);there was sufficient sunshine in the winter half year.The main climatic advantages for mango cultivation in Jingdong County are manifested as follows:the overwintering temperature and light conditions were relatively favorable(the average temperature in the coldest month was 11.3℃,and average sunshine duration in the three months of winter was 6.3 h/d);the annual total heat was moderate,and≥10℃accumulated temperature was 6600℃·d;the temperature effectiveness during the main growing season of mangoes was relatively higher;the sunshine duration and climate humidity during the flower bud differentiation period were moderate(sunshine duration was 6.4 h/d,and monthly precipitation was 19.2 mm);the rainfall was abundant during the maturation period of fruits.The insufficient light and heat intensity during the maturation period of fruits(average sunshine duration was 4.4 h/d,and average temperature was 23.2℃from June to September),the susceptibility to the influence of spring drought during the young fruit stage of mangoes(precipitation was 141 mm from March to May),and relatively lower temperature during the flowering and pollination period in some years jointly constituted the main climatic constraints on local mango yield.
文摘This study introduces the Bioclimatic Emission Amplification Theory(BEAT),a novel framework for detecting and forecasting how terrestrial ecosystems,particularly the Amazon Basin,transition from being carbon sinks to becoming carbon sources under compounded bioclimatic stress.BEAT synthesizes satellite-derived data from 2001 to 2022 and integrates temperature anomalies,vapor pressure deficit(VPD),fire activity,and vegetation degradation into a Compound Stress Index(CSI).Methodologically,the study applies piecewise regression,changepoint analysis,and early warning signal(EWS)metrics,including rolling variance and lag-1 autocorrelation,to identify nonlinear emission tipping points and ecological resilience loss.Machine learning models such as XGBoost and SHAP were employed to evaluate the predictive relevance of CSI components and enhance model interpretability.Results reveal a critical CSI threshold(≥0.6),beyond which Net Ecosystem Exchange(NEE)exhibits abrupt positive anomalies,indicating carbon emission amplification.EWS metrics significantly increased prior to emission spikes,validating BEAT’s predictive capacity for ecological destabilization.In addition,spatial clustering and time-lagged correlation analysis confirmed the alignment between compound stress hotspots and emission anomalies,and when compared to traditional Earth System Models(ESMs),BEAT uniquely captures synergistic stress interactions and nonlinearity.The findings underscore BEAT’s potential to improve early warning systems,REDD+monitoring frameworks,and climate adaptation planning.Its scalable design enables application across vulnerable biomes globally and offers a transformative tool for anticipating biosphere-climate tipping points and informing proactive ecosystem governance.
