The article used general equilibrium model to analyze the change of gross domestic product and industry output affected by water resources policies in Beijing City by using GEMPACK soft tool.The article researches on ...The article used general equilibrium model to analyze the change of gross domestic product and industry output affected by water resources policies in Beijing City by using GEMPACK soft tool.The article researches on rules of water supply and demand,evaluating water resources,building water resources input and output table,establishing water computable general equilibrium model and stimulating water policy.The stimulation gives a scenario that increases water price by 10%.The result shows the following aspects.First,water resources policy infects gross domestic product and industry output in different ways.There are different behaviors in different industries as to the water policy. Agriculture industry has the same tendency as water price change and it has more sensitive to water quantity than to water price.For basic energy industries such as oil and chemistry and gas,they show diversity tendency.As to some high water consumer industry such as paper and textile etc.,water resource economic policy can infect them greatly and can promote them to accomplish more water-saving technology.Waste water and construction and service industries show the same tendency as to water policy.Second,government should pay more attention to water resource policy by macro economic administration.The simulation also shows that the output and supply and consumer price change more than expect as to water policy in a free market economic in water industry.So as to a government policy maker,one should be more carefully and prepare suitable forecast and plan to water policy and its negative impact.展开更多
This paper has established a computable general equilibrium(CGE) model taking into account the costs of environmental regulation to evaluate the overall impact of enhanced environmental regulation on China's econo...This paper has established a computable general equilibrium(CGE) model taking into account the costs of environmental regulation to evaluate the overall impact of enhanced environmental regulation on China's economy.The results demonstrate that if environmental regulation is strengthened to the point at which industrial waste discharge meets the current legal standard,economic growth rate will decrease by approximately1%,employment in the manufacturing sector will decrease by approximately 1.8%,and the total value of exports will decrease by approximately 1.7%.The report also shows that enhanced environmental regulation has impacted each region of China differently.This paper argues that during the implementation of environmental regulation,policymakers will need to have a complete understanding of potential regional and structural impacts.China's environmental regulation policy should be implemented gradually,beginning with key polluting industries and those with low correlation to economic growth.Additionally,this paper proposes that environmental regulation should be carried out during periods of economic growth.展开更多
This study analyzes the economic and environmental impacts of a climate change measure in Japan using a single-country dynamic computable general equilibrium model with technological change as an endogenous variable. ...This study analyzes the economic and environmental impacts of a climate change measure in Japan using a single-country dynamic computable general equilibrium model with technological change as an endogenous variable. In this way, a comprehensive analysis of the relationships between climate change and its measures, technology, and economy has been done. The model uses technological change as the accumulation of knowledge capital that is derived from research and development investment. The study investigates the impacts of a climate change measure considering the use of emission permit revenue and technological change induced by the policy implementation in the Japanese economy. Simulation results show that there is compatibility between CO2 emission reduction and positive effects on GDP that depends on the ways of the revenue use and technological change induced by emission reduction. However, it is not possible to find the ways to realize positive effects on both GDP and welfare simultaneously in the study. The sensitivity analysis for the elasticity of substitution between knowledge capital and other inputs also confirms the obtained results.展开更多
This paper introduces the model of China's direct grain subsidy policy, adopts computable general equilibrium (CGE) theory, and advances the scheme of constructing the model of China's direct grain subsidy pol...This paper introduces the model of China's direct grain subsidy policy, adopts computable general equilibrium (CGE) theory, and advances the scheme of constructing the model of China's direct grain subsidy policy. On the basis of some assumptions, such as conforming to the complete competition of market, inexistence of move of capital and labor forces among countries, unchanged exchange rate and incomplete substitution, and the main body of behavior comprising representative households, producers, local government and central government, the model established in this paper includes production module and demand module. Moreover, the model takes into account equilibrium structure, the definition of profiting and macro condition for closure, the related coefficients this CGE model needs include Armingtion substitution elasticity of intermediate composite product, investment composite product and consumption composite product between import and domestic production; substitution elasticity among production factors; conversion elasticity of total sales between domestic absorption and export; elasticity of residents' expenditure; elasticity of price; elasticity of export demand; the relative share of all sectors in capital stock. This paper also points out the advantages and limitations of CGE model in analyzing direct grain subsidy policy.展开更多
This is a conceptual paper which was motivated by the fact that Swaziland does not have a Social Accounting Matrix （SAM） in place and as such there are many shocks that affect that country＇s economy but which canno...This is a conceptual paper which was motivated by the fact that Swaziland does not have a Social Accounting Matrix （SAM） in place and as such there are many shocks that affect that country＇s economy but which cannot be analyzed effectively. Most notable of this is the economic effects of the HIV/AIDS scourge that is affecting that country of which it has been difficult to determine the effects it has had on the economy in an objective manner. This paper will highlight the usefulness of the SAM and Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） models in analyzing the possible economic effects of HIV/AIDS in Swaziland. The absence of a SAM for Swaziland means that empirical analysis of the effect of the disease on the economy could not be undertaken, but it is hoped that the arguments presented here will contribute to the use of these methods as tools for analyzing various shocks in an economy. The paper is divided into 4 parts. Part 1 is a brief introduction into the Swaziland economy, part 2 is a brief description of the SAM, description of CGE Modeling and a detailed application of the SAM data into the CGE modeling framework, part 3 introduces the HIV/AIDS situation in Swaziland and models its possible effects using a macroeconomic SAM and part 4 is the discussion and conclusion. The main aim of the paper then is to lay the basic framework to help small developing countries develop practical SAMs that will become an important tool in analyzing the performances of their economies.展开更多
There are three different orientations of the macroeconomic policies,namely,factor-expansion,prudent-continuation and structural-adjustment.The paper uses the dynamic CGE model to simulate the effects of the three dif...There are three different orientations of the macroeconomic policies,namely,factor-expansion,prudent-continuation and structural-adjustment.The paper uses the dynamic CGE model to simulate the effects of the three different orientations on the economy,and arrives at the following conclusions:while the factor-expansion policies can lead to growth of economic output,they also result in the further imbalance in the industrial structure and the "crowding-out effect" on the private investment.In addition,such growth is unsustainable in the long run;the growth of the industrial economy will decline rapidly to a lower level after reaching a certain high level.The prudent-continuation policies refer to the continuation of the current policies that sustain the current trends of the industrial economy,and such policies reduce the growth of the industrial economy to a lower level in the long run.The structural-adjustment policies reduce the economic output at the current stage;however,it can bring a gradual improvement of industrial structure and a balance of the supply and demand.In the long run,the optimized structure will improve the total factor productivity(TFP) and the production-possibility frontier,and thereby realize a longterm steady and rapid growth of the industrial economy.Four policy recommendations are proposed based on the simulation of the models,including taking the structural adjustment as the fundamental orientation of macroeconomic policies,lowering the "floor level" of economic growth with macro regulation,giving play to the fundamental role of market mechanism in structural adjustment and increasing the role of TFP in the growth of the industrial economy.展开更多
The hybrid policy is a flexible policy tool that combines features of carbon trading and carbon taxation.Its economic and environmental effects under China's background are still not studied in detail.Given the ex...The hybrid policy is a flexible policy tool that combines features of carbon trading and carbon taxation.Its economic and environmental effects under China's background are still not studied in detail.Given the exogenous carbon reduction targets,carbon prices,and carbon tax-rates,by computable general equilibrium modeling methods and factor decomposition methods,this article investigates direct and cascaded effects of the hybrid policy on economic growth,energy utilization,and carbon emission on the national level and the sector level,with China's national input-output data-set.Stepwisely,policy scenarios with irrational estimated results are selectively excluded based on comprehensive evaluation among economic,carbon reduction and other policy targets.As a result,against national economic conditions in 2007,the hybrid policy,with a carbon reduction target of -10%,a carbon tax-rate of around $10,and a ceiling carbon price of $40,is highly recommended,because of its significant lower economic loss,lower energy utilization cost,and practical robustness against fluctuation of energy market and carbon market.Furthermore,by decomposition analysis,carbon reduction-related costs are decomposed into a direct part that includes carbon allowance price and carbon tax,and an indirect part as the energy price incremental induced by direct carbon costs.Gross carbon reduction may be decomposed into three parts such as energy intensity,economic scale,and technical progress.And,carbon taxation is the main policy tool that stimulates to improve the energy efficiency.展开更多
Carbon-motivated border tax adjustment is a unilateral international trade policy aimed at compensating for the loss ofcompetitiveness of carbon-intensive products due to carbon dioxide abatement actions.It violates f...Carbon-motivated border tax adjustment is a unilateral international trade policy aimed at compensating for the loss ofcompetitiveness of carbon-intensive products due to carbon dioxide abatement actions.It violates fundamental principlesof the UNFCCC and potentially conflicts with the core WTO principle of non-discrimination as reflected in the GATTArticle Ⅰ and Article Ⅲ.Based on an analysis of carbon emissions embodied in China’s industrial exports,this paperevaluates with a recursive dynamic CGE model the potential impacts of the carbon duty on China’s industrial production,exports and employment.The results of a simulation show that with a tariff rate of US＄30 or US＄60 per ton of carbon,theoutput of China’s industrial sectors would decline by 0.62-1.22 percent,exports by 3.53-6.95 percent,and employment by1.22-2.39 percent.The authors suggest several measures of alleviating the impacts of carbon duty and put forward a carbonduty policy based on carbon consumption per capita as a countermeasure.展开更多
The purpose of this study is to analyze economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gases emissions significantly. A large amount of emissions reductions are required throughout this century to avoid dangerous climate cha...The purpose of this study is to analyze economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gases emissions significantly. A large amount of emissions reductions are required throughout this century to avoid dangerous climate change, and understanding the economic consequences under such situations is important and meaningful. The AIM/CGE [Global] model, a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model on a global scale, is applied to analyze carbon prices and changes in GDP when implementing five policy scenarios represented by emissions pathways, respectively. As a result of the analysis, higher carbon prices and larger decreases in GDP compared to the baseline emissions scenario are observed when emissions are reduced more deeply. However, such GDP losses are rather small and insignificant compared to the GDP growth observed throughout the century. These results suggest that although it is challenging to reduce emissions until the level to avoid dangerous climate change, there is a sufficient possibility to achieve it from economic perspectives.展开更多
A consensus is still to be reached regarding the relationship between trade, growth, and the environment in either the existing theoretical models or previous empirical analyses. By using a Sino-Korean case study, we ...A consensus is still to be reached regarding the relationship between trade, growth, and the environment in either the existing theoretical models or previous empirical analyses. By using a Sino-Korean case study, we expect this work to contribute to the theoretical and empirical knowledge of the relationship between trade, growth and the environment. In this paper, four types of simulation are executed by applying a Sino-Korea CGE model. The results reveal that an increasing volume of bilateral trade boosts the real GDP at a decreasing rate. Different degrees in the volume of increase of bilateral trade produce welfare gains for Chinese households, i.e. more household spending. Welfare increases at a decreasing rate when the degree of bilateral trade growth increases less stringently, while in Korea there are welfare losses （less household consumption） when the bilateral trade target becomes increasingly stringent. Moreover, the investment gains in the economy tend to rise more sharply as the degree of bilateral trade growth increases less stringently in China. The investment tends to decrease at a proportional rate when the target bilateral trade volume becomes more stringent and the changes in the gross investment become more significant in Korea. In addition, the aggregate production shows a tendency to increase at a proportional rate with a more stringent target bilateral trade volume and when there are considerable changes in gross production. Furthermore, the impact of most production sectors can benefit China, but have a negative impact on Korea. Meantime, the simulations highlight that import growth increases carbon emissions at a decreasing rate, and export growth increases carbon emissions. According to our policy findings, policy makers should be advised to consider the third trade policy （Scenario c）, which maintains a reasonable economic growth but at the expense of investment and welfare.展开更多
水资源经济政策的研究对于解决突出的水问题具有重要意义,本文采用2002年北京市投入产出表和有关的水资源公报等数据,通过单列水行业和废污水行业建立了基于一般均衡理论的水资源经济CGE(Computable General Equilibrium)模型和相应的42...水资源经济政策的研究对于解决突出的水问题具有重要意义,本文采用2002年北京市投入产出表和有关的水资源公报等数据,通过单列水行业和废污水行业建立了基于一般均衡理论的水资源经济CGE(Computable General Equilibrium)模型和相应的42×53多部门水资源投入产出表,利用GEMPACK软件包,对北京市水资源经济政策进行了模拟和分析。模拟显示,当水价增加10%时,行业产出和销售量变化呈现不同的特点和变动趋势;当水量增加10%时,造成行业产出的变化和销售量的变动也值得深虑。该成果可为制定和实施水资源政策提供决策参考及模拟平台。展开更多
基金Project supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant no.40730632/40671035)the Special Fund of Ministry of Science and Technology,China(Grant no. 2006DFA21890)the Key Project of International Cooperation in CAS (Grant no.GJHZ06)
文摘The article used general equilibrium model to analyze the change of gross domestic product and industry output affected by water resources policies in Beijing City by using GEMPACK soft tool.The article researches on rules of water supply and demand,evaluating water resources,building water resources input and output table,establishing water computable general equilibrium model and stimulating water policy.The stimulation gives a scenario that increases water price by 10%.The result shows the following aspects.First,water resources policy infects gross domestic product and industry output in different ways.There are different behaviors in different industries as to the water policy. Agriculture industry has the same tendency as water price change and it has more sensitive to water quantity than to water price.For basic energy industries such as oil and chemistry and gas,they show diversity tendency.As to some high water consumer industry such as paper and textile etc.,water resource economic policy can infect them greatly and can promote them to accomplish more water-saving technology.Waste water and construction and service industries show the same tendency as to water policy.Second,government should pay more attention to water resource policy by macro economic administration.The simulation also shows that the output and supply and consumer price change more than expect as to water policy in a free market economic in water industry.So as to a government policy maker,one should be more carefully and prepare suitable forecast and plan to water policy and its negative impact.
基金the phased outcome of key project of the National Social Science Fund"Research on the Interaction between Industrial Upgrading and Intensification of Environmental Regulation"(Approval No.14AJY015)The National Soft Science Research Program"Research on the Impact of Disruptive Technological Innovation Mechanism on Industrial Development"(Approval No.2013GXS6B213)
文摘This paper has established a computable general equilibrium(CGE) model taking into account the costs of environmental regulation to evaluate the overall impact of enhanced environmental regulation on China's economy.The results demonstrate that if environmental regulation is strengthened to the point at which industrial waste discharge meets the current legal standard,economic growth rate will decrease by approximately1%,employment in the manufacturing sector will decrease by approximately 1.8%,and the total value of exports will decrease by approximately 1.7%.The report also shows that enhanced environmental regulation has impacted each region of China differently.This paper argues that during the implementation of environmental regulation,policymakers will need to have a complete understanding of potential regional and structural impacts.China's environmental regulation policy should be implemented gradually,beginning with key polluting industries and those with low correlation to economic growth.Additionally,this paper proposes that environmental regulation should be carried out during periods of economic growth.
文摘This study analyzes the economic and environmental impacts of a climate change measure in Japan using a single-country dynamic computable general equilibrium model with technological change as an endogenous variable. In this way, a comprehensive analysis of the relationships between climate change and its measures, technology, and economy has been done. The model uses technological change as the accumulation of knowledge capital that is derived from research and development investment. The study investigates the impacts of a climate change measure considering the use of emission permit revenue and technological change induced by the policy implementation in the Japanese economy. Simulation results show that there is compatibility between CO2 emission reduction and positive effects on GDP that depends on the ways of the revenue use and technological change induced by emission reduction. However, it is not possible to find the ways to realize positive effects on both GDP and welfare simultaneously in the study. The sensitivity analysis for the elasticity of substitution between knowledge capital and other inputs also confirms the obtained results.
文摘This paper introduces the model of China's direct grain subsidy policy, adopts computable general equilibrium (CGE) theory, and advances the scheme of constructing the model of China's direct grain subsidy policy. On the basis of some assumptions, such as conforming to the complete competition of market, inexistence of move of capital and labor forces among countries, unchanged exchange rate and incomplete substitution, and the main body of behavior comprising representative households, producers, local government and central government, the model established in this paper includes production module and demand module. Moreover, the model takes into account equilibrium structure, the definition of profiting and macro condition for closure, the related coefficients this CGE model needs include Armingtion substitution elasticity of intermediate composite product, investment composite product and consumption composite product between import and domestic production; substitution elasticity among production factors; conversion elasticity of total sales between domestic absorption and export; elasticity of residents' expenditure; elasticity of price; elasticity of export demand; the relative share of all sectors in capital stock. This paper also points out the advantages and limitations of CGE model in analyzing direct grain subsidy policy.
文摘This is a conceptual paper which was motivated by the fact that Swaziland does not have a Social Accounting Matrix （SAM） in place and as such there are many shocks that affect that country＇s economy but which cannot be analyzed effectively. Most notable of this is the economic effects of the HIV/AIDS scourge that is affecting that country of which it has been difficult to determine the effects it has had on the economy in an objective manner. This paper will highlight the usefulness of the SAM and Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） models in analyzing the possible economic effects of HIV/AIDS in Swaziland. The absence of a SAM for Swaziland means that empirical analysis of the effect of the disease on the economy could not be undertaken, but it is hoped that the arguments presented here will contribute to the use of these methods as tools for analyzing various shocks in an economy. The paper is divided into 4 parts. Part 1 is a brief introduction into the Swaziland economy, part 2 is a brief description of the SAM, description of CGE Modeling and a detailed application of the SAM data into the CGE modeling framework, part 3 introduces the HIV/AIDS situation in Swaziland and models its possible effects using a macroeconomic SAM and part 4 is the discussion and conclusion. The main aim of the paper then is to lay the basic framework to help small developing countries develop practical SAMs that will become an important tool in analyzing the performances of their economies.
文摘There are three different orientations of the macroeconomic policies,namely,factor-expansion,prudent-continuation and structural-adjustment.The paper uses the dynamic CGE model to simulate the effects of the three different orientations on the economy,and arrives at the following conclusions:while the factor-expansion policies can lead to growth of economic output,they also result in the further imbalance in the industrial structure and the "crowding-out effect" on the private investment.In addition,such growth is unsustainable in the long run;the growth of the industrial economy will decline rapidly to a lower level after reaching a certain high level.The prudent-continuation policies refer to the continuation of the current policies that sustain the current trends of the industrial economy,and such policies reduce the growth of the industrial economy to a lower level in the long run.The structural-adjustment policies reduce the economic output at the current stage;however,it can bring a gradual improvement of industrial structure and a balance of the supply and demand.In the long run,the optimized structure will improve the total factor productivity(TFP) and the production-possibility frontier,and thereby realize a longterm steady and rapid growth of the industrial economy.Four policy recommendations are proposed based on the simulation of the models,including taking the structural adjustment as the fundamental orientation of macroeconomic policies,lowering the "floor level" of economic growth with macro regulation,giving play to the fundamental role of market mechanism in structural adjustment and increasing the role of TFP in the growth of the industrial economy.
基金supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[CDJSK10 00 68]NSFC Young Scientist Research Fund[0903080]
文摘The hybrid policy is a flexible policy tool that combines features of carbon trading and carbon taxation.Its economic and environmental effects under China's background are still not studied in detail.Given the exogenous carbon reduction targets,carbon prices,and carbon tax-rates,by computable general equilibrium modeling methods and factor decomposition methods,this article investigates direct and cascaded effects of the hybrid policy on economic growth,energy utilization,and carbon emission on the national level and the sector level,with China's national input-output data-set.Stepwisely,policy scenarios with irrational estimated results are selectively excluded based on comprehensive evaluation among economic,carbon reduction and other policy targets.As a result,against national economic conditions in 2007,the hybrid policy,with a carbon reduction target of -10%,a carbon tax-rate of around $10,and a ceiling carbon price of $40,is highly recommended,because of its significant lower economic loss,lower energy utilization cost,and practical robustness against fluctuation of energy market and carbon market.Furthermore,by decomposition analysis,carbon reduction-related costs are decomposed into a direct part that includes carbon allowance price and carbon tax,and an indirect part as the energy price incremental induced by direct carbon costs.Gross carbon reduction may be decomposed into three parts such as energy intensity,economic scale,and technical progress.And,carbon taxation is the main policy tool that stimulates to improve the energy efficiency.
文摘Carbon-motivated border tax adjustment is a unilateral international trade policy aimed at compensating for the loss ofcompetitiveness of carbon-intensive products due to carbon dioxide abatement actions.It violates fundamental principlesof the UNFCCC and potentially conflicts with the core WTO principle of non-discrimination as reflected in the GATTArticle Ⅰ and Article Ⅲ.Based on an analysis of carbon emissions embodied in China’s industrial exports,this paperevaluates with a recursive dynamic CGE model the potential impacts of the carbon duty on China’s industrial production,exports and employment.The results of a simulation show that with a tariff rate of US＄30 or US＄60 per ton of carbon,theoutput of China’s industrial sectors would decline by 0.62-1.22 percent,exports by 3.53-6.95 percent,and employment by1.22-2.39 percent.The authors suggest several measures of alleviating the impacts of carbon duty and put forward a carbonduty policy based on carbon consumption per capita as a countermeasure.
文摘The purpose of this study is to analyze economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gases emissions significantly. A large amount of emissions reductions are required throughout this century to avoid dangerous climate change, and understanding the economic consequences under such situations is important and meaningful. The AIM/CGE [Global] model, a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model on a global scale, is applied to analyze carbon prices and changes in GDP when implementing five policy scenarios represented by emissions pathways, respectively. As a result of the analysis, higher carbon prices and larger decreases in GDP compared to the baseline emissions scenario are observed when emissions are reduced more deeply. However, such GDP losses are rather small and insignificant compared to the GDP growth observed throughout the century. These results suggest that although it is challenging to reduce emissions until the level to avoid dangerous climate change, there is a sufficient possibility to achieve it from economic perspectives.
文摘A consensus is still to be reached regarding the relationship between trade, growth, and the environment in either the existing theoretical models or previous empirical analyses. By using a Sino-Korean case study, we expect this work to contribute to the theoretical and empirical knowledge of the relationship between trade, growth and the environment. In this paper, four types of simulation are executed by applying a Sino-Korea CGE model. The results reveal that an increasing volume of bilateral trade boosts the real GDP at a decreasing rate. Different degrees in the volume of increase of bilateral trade produce welfare gains for Chinese households, i.e. more household spending. Welfare increases at a decreasing rate when the degree of bilateral trade growth increases less stringently, while in Korea there are welfare losses （less household consumption） when the bilateral trade target becomes increasingly stringent. Moreover, the investment gains in the economy tend to rise more sharply as the degree of bilateral trade growth increases less stringently in China. The investment tends to decrease at a proportional rate when the target bilateral trade volume becomes more stringent and the changes in the gross investment become more significant in Korea. In addition, the aggregate production shows a tendency to increase at a proportional rate with a more stringent target bilateral trade volume and when there are considerable changes in gross production. Furthermore, the impact of most production sectors can benefit China, but have a negative impact on Korea. Meantime, the simulations highlight that import growth increases carbon emissions at a decreasing rate, and export growth increases carbon emissions. According to our policy findings, policy makers should be advised to consider the third trade policy （Scenario c）, which maintains a reasonable economic growth but at the expense of investment and welfare.
文摘水资源经济政策的研究对于解决突出的水问题具有重要意义,本文采用2002年北京市投入产出表和有关的水资源公报等数据,通过单列水行业和废污水行业建立了基于一般均衡理论的水资源经济CGE(Computable General Equilibrium)模型和相应的42×53多部门水资源投入产出表,利用GEMPACK软件包,对北京市水资源经济政策进行了模拟和分析。模拟显示,当水价增加10%时,行业产出和销售量变化呈现不同的特点和变动趋势;当水量增加10%时,造成行业产出的变化和销售量的变动也值得深虑。该成果可为制定和实施水资源政策提供决策参考及模拟平台。
