In this paper,experiment results about East Asia climate from five CGCMs are described.The ability of the models to simulate present climate and the simulated response to increased carbon dioxide are both covered.The ...In this paper,experiment results about East Asia climate from five CGCMs are described.The ability of the models to simulate present climate and the simulated response to increased carbon dioxide are both covered.The results indicate that all models show substantial changes in climate when carbon dioxide concentrations are doubled.In particular,the strong surface warming at high latitudes in winter and the significant increase of summer precipitation in the monsoon area are produced by all models.Regional evaluation results show that these five CGCMs are particularly good in simulating spatial distribution of present climate.The main characteristics of the seasonal mean H500,SAT, MSLP field can be simulated by most CGCMs.But there are significant systematic errors in SAT, MSLP,HS00 fields in most models.On the whole,DKRZ OPYC is the best in simulating the present climate in East Asia.展开更多
The responses of the climate system to increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_2)are studied by using a new version of the Bureau of Meteorological Research Centre(BMRC)global coupled general circulation model(CGCM)...The responses of the climate system to increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_2)are studied by using a new version of the Bureau of Meteorological Research Centre(BMRC)global coupled general circulation model(CGCM).Two simulations are run:one with atmospheric CO_2 concentration held constant at 330 ppm,the other with a tripling of atmospheric CO_2(990 ppm). Results from the 41-year control coupled integration are applied to analyze the mean state, seasonal cycle and interannual variability in the model.Comparisons between the greenhouse experiment and the control experiment then provide estimations of the influence of increased CO_2 on climate changes and climate variability.Especially discussed is the question on whether the climate changes concerned with CO_2 inerease will impact interannual variability in tropical Pacific, such as ENSO.展开更多
Based on an analysis of the relationship between the tropical cyclone genesis frequency and large-scale circulation anomaly in NCEP reanalysis, large-scale atmosphere circulation information forecast by the JAMSTEC SI...Based on an analysis of the relationship between the tropical cyclone genesis frequency and large-scale circulation anomaly in NCEP reanalysis, large-scale atmosphere circulation information forecast by the JAMSTEC SINTEX-F coupled model is used to build a statistical model to predict the cyclogenesis frequency over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific. The SINTEX-F coupled model has relatively good prediction skill for some circulation features associated with the cyclogenesis frequency including sea level pressure, wind vertical shear, Intertropical Convergence Zone and cross-equatorial air flows. Predictors derived from these large-scale circulations have good relationships with the cyclogenesis frequency over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific. A multivariate linear regression(MLR) model is further designed using these predictors. This model shows good prediction skill with the anomaly correlation coefficient reaching, based on the cross validation, 0.71 between the observed and predicted cyclogenesis frequency. However, it also shows relatively large prediction errors in extreme tropical cyclone years(1994 and 1998, for example).展开更多
基金The work was supported by the National ScienceTechnical Committee in China (85-913-02-05)+1 种基金Climate Prediction Program the National Postdocter Fund.
文摘In this paper,experiment results about East Asia climate from five CGCMs are described.The ability of the models to simulate present climate and the simulated response to increased carbon dioxide are both covered.The results indicate that all models show substantial changes in climate when carbon dioxide concentrations are doubled.In particular,the strong surface warming at high latitudes in winter and the significant increase of summer precipitation in the monsoon area are produced by all models.Regional evaluation results show that these five CGCMs are particularly good in simulating spatial distribution of present climate.The main characteristics of the seasonal mean H500,SAT, MSLP field can be simulated by most CGCMs.But there are significant systematic errors in SAT, MSLP,HS00 fields in most models.On the whole,DKRZ OPYC is the best in simulating the present climate in East Asia.
文摘The responses of the climate system to increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_2)are studied by using a new version of the Bureau of Meteorological Research Centre(BMRC)global coupled general circulation model(CGCM).Two simulations are run:one with atmospheric CO_2 concentration held constant at 330 ppm,the other with a tripling of atmospheric CO_2(990 ppm). Results from the 41-year control coupled integration are applied to analyze the mean state, seasonal cycle and interannual variability in the model.Comparisons between the greenhouse experiment and the control experiment then provide estimations of the influence of increased CO_2 on climate changes and climate variability.Especially discussed is the question on whether the climate changes concerned with CO_2 inerease will impact interannual variability in tropical Pacific, such as ENSO.
基金Specialized Science and Technology Project for Public Welfare Industry(GYHY200906015)National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program,2010CB428606)Key Technologies R&D Program of China(2009BAC51B05)
文摘Based on an analysis of the relationship between the tropical cyclone genesis frequency and large-scale circulation anomaly in NCEP reanalysis, large-scale atmosphere circulation information forecast by the JAMSTEC SINTEX-F coupled model is used to build a statistical model to predict the cyclogenesis frequency over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific. The SINTEX-F coupled model has relatively good prediction skill for some circulation features associated with the cyclogenesis frequency including sea level pressure, wind vertical shear, Intertropical Convergence Zone and cross-equatorial air flows. Predictors derived from these large-scale circulations have good relationships with the cyclogenesis frequency over the South China Sea and the western North Pacific. A multivariate linear regression(MLR) model is further designed using these predictors. This model shows good prediction skill with the anomaly correlation coefficient reaching, based on the cross validation, 0.71 between the observed and predicted cyclogenesis frequency. However, it also shows relatively large prediction errors in extreme tropical cyclone years(1994 and 1998, for example).
