Based on the data of daily precipitation in Lianyungang area from 1951 to 2012 and various climate signal data from the National Climate Center website and the NOAA website,a model for predicting whether the number of...Based on the data of daily precipitation in Lianyungang area from 1951 to 2012 and various climate signal data from the National Climate Center website and the NOAA website,a model for predicting whether the number of rainstorm days in summer in Lianyungang area is large was established by the classical C5. 0 decision tree algorithm. The data samples in 48 years( accounting for about 80% of total number of samples)was as the training set of a model,and the training accuracy rate of the model was 95. 83%. The data samples in the remaining 14 years( accounting for about 20% of total number of samples) were used as the test set of the model to test the model,and the test accuracy of the model was 85. 71%. The results showed that the prediction model of number of rainstorm days in summer constructed by C5. 0 algorithm had high accuracy and was easy to explain. Moreover,it is convenient for meteorological staff to use directly. At the same time,this study provides a new idea for short-term climate prediction of number of rainstorm days in summer.展开更多
基金Support by Meteorological Open Research Foundation for the Huaihe River Basin(HRM201602)Foundation for Young Scholars of Jiangsu Meteorological Bureau(Q201708,KQ201802)+2 种基金Science and Technology Innovation Team Foundation for Marine Meteorological Forecast Technology of Lianyungang Meteorological BureauKey Technology R&D Program Project of Lianyungang City(SH1634)Special Project for Forecasters of Jiangsu Meteorological Bureau(JSYBY201811,JSYBY201812,JSYBY201810)
文摘Based on the data of daily precipitation in Lianyungang area from 1951 to 2012 and various climate signal data from the National Climate Center website and the NOAA website,a model for predicting whether the number of rainstorm days in summer in Lianyungang area is large was established by the classical C5. 0 decision tree algorithm. The data samples in 48 years( accounting for about 80% of total number of samples)was as the training set of a model,and the training accuracy rate of the model was 95. 83%. The data samples in the remaining 14 years( accounting for about 20% of total number of samples) were used as the test set of the model to test the model,and the test accuracy of the model was 85. 71%. The results showed that the prediction model of number of rainstorm days in summer constructed by C5. 0 algorithm had high accuracy and was easy to explain. Moreover,it is convenient for meteorological staff to use directly. At the same time,this study provides a new idea for short-term climate prediction of number of rainstorm days in summer.
