The Siberian high(SH)experienced a decline from the 1970s to 1990s and a recovery in recent years.The evolution of the SH under global warming is unclear.In this study,41 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(...The Siberian high(SH)experienced a decline from the 1970s to 1990s and a recovery in recent years.The evolution of the SH under global warming is unclear.In this study,41 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)climate models are evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the temporal evolution of the SH in the 19th and 20th centuries and the spatial pattern of the SH during 1981–2005.The results show that 12models can capture the temporal evolution of the SH center intensity(SHCI)for 1872–2005.The linear correlation coefficient between the SHCI from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis and the simulated SHCI from the multi-model ensemble(MME)of the 12 models is 0.3 on annual and inter-annual scales(above the 99%confidence level).On decadal and multi-decadal time scales,the MME also captures the pronounced reduction(between 1981–2000and 1881–1900 period)and the recovery(during1991–2005)of the SH intensity.Finally,the future evolution of the SH is investigated using the MME of the 12models under the+4.5 and+8.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).It is shown that the SHCI,similar to the SHCI in the 20th century,has no significant long-term trend in the 21st century under global warming(RCP8.5 scenario).At the end of 21st century(2081–2100),the SH shows stronger interannual variability than the SH at the end of20th century(1981–2000).The increased interannual variability likely favors the increased interannual variability in winter air temperature over midlatitude Eurasia at the end of 21st century.展开更多
We calculated and analyzed variation of the non-dipole(ND)magnetic field at the millennium scale over the Chinese mainland during 2000 BC–1900 AD using the newest global geomagnetic model,CALS3K.4(3K.4).The newest-ge...We calculated and analyzed variation of the non-dipole(ND)magnetic field at the millennium scale over the Chinese mainland during 2000 BC–1900 AD using the newest global geomagnetic model,CALS3K.4(3K.4).The newest-generation IGRF(IGRF11)was used to verify the results.Taking component Z for example,we calculated and analyzed the distribution and annual change rates of the ND field during 1900–1990 AD every 5 yr,using two models.To thoroughly analyze the contributions of field sources,quadrupole and octupole fields,and others within the ND field at the surface and core-mantle boundary(CMB)were investigated.Results show that there were three main variation phases of the field during the period 2000BC–1900 AD.The mean amplitude roughly reflected the ND field because of the distribution and variation of that field,corresponding somewhat to the mean amplitude change.A magnetic anomaly of the ND field over East Asia(EA)first emerged in 1682 AD,and its extreme intensity had increased a total of 15276.95 nT by 1900 AD.Its location moved continuously southeastward after 1690 AD.The asymmetry between location and intensity of extreme points over EA,particularly during1740–1760 AD,indicates irregularity of fluid motion inside the outer core.Mean annual changes of Z are generally divided into four phases,which first oscillated between 2000 and 800 BC,then increased,decreased and increased in the periods 800BC–300 AD,300–900 AD and 900–1900 AD,respectively.The intensity of mean annual change increased a total of 22.87nT/yr.Anomaly extreme locations based on 3K.4 and IGRF11 over EA centered around 44°N and 103°E for degree(n)greater than 5,and intensities continuously increased with n.During 2000 BC–1990 AD,ND energy of Z at the surface and CMB had decreased in total by 18.29%and 23.23%,respectively.The field source of 26–210 pole fields are more or less affected by the lithospheric field.Energies of higher degree at the surface attenuate by almost 99%compared with CMB,but mean attenuation speeds of the low-degree ND field are faster than high-degree,which implies that the low-degree ND field has a deeper source.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41210007,41421004,and 41375083)the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry(Meteorology)(Grant No.GYHY201306026)
文摘The Siberian high(SH)experienced a decline from the 1970s to 1990s and a recovery in recent years.The evolution of the SH under global warming is unclear.In this study,41 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5(CMIP5)climate models are evaluated in terms of their ability to simulate the temporal evolution of the SH in the 19th and 20th centuries and the spatial pattern of the SH during 1981–2005.The results show that 12models can capture the temporal evolution of the SH center intensity(SHCI)for 1872–2005.The linear correlation coefficient between the SHCI from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis and the simulated SHCI from the multi-model ensemble(MME)of the 12 models is 0.3 on annual and inter-annual scales(above the 99%confidence level).On decadal and multi-decadal time scales,the MME also captures the pronounced reduction(between 1981–2000and 1881–1900 period)and the recovery(during1991–2005)of the SH intensity.Finally,the future evolution of the SH is investigated using the MME of the 12models under the+4.5 and+8.5 W m-2 Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)scenarios(RCP4.5 and RCP8.5).It is shown that the SHCI,similar to the SHCI in the 20th century,has no significant long-term trend in the 21st century under global warming(RCP8.5 scenario).At the end of 21st century(2081–2100),the SH shows stronger interannual variability than the SH at the end of20th century(1981–2000).The increased interannual variability likely favors the increased interannual variability in winter air temperature over midlatitude Eurasia at the end of 21st century.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41174165)Special Project for Meteo-scientific Research in the Public Interest(Grant No.GYHY201306073-2,GYHY200906033)Science Research Project of NUIST(Grant No.20110420)
文摘We calculated and analyzed variation of the non-dipole(ND)magnetic field at the millennium scale over the Chinese mainland during 2000 BC–1900 AD using the newest global geomagnetic model,CALS3K.4(3K.4).The newest-generation IGRF(IGRF11)was used to verify the results.Taking component Z for example,we calculated and analyzed the distribution and annual change rates of the ND field during 1900–1990 AD every 5 yr,using two models.To thoroughly analyze the contributions of field sources,quadrupole and octupole fields,and others within the ND field at the surface and core-mantle boundary(CMB)were investigated.Results show that there were three main variation phases of the field during the period 2000BC–1900 AD.The mean amplitude roughly reflected the ND field because of the distribution and variation of that field,corresponding somewhat to the mean amplitude change.A magnetic anomaly of the ND field over East Asia(EA)first emerged in 1682 AD,and its extreme intensity had increased a total of 15276.95 nT by 1900 AD.Its location moved continuously southeastward after 1690 AD.The asymmetry between location and intensity of extreme points over EA,particularly during1740–1760 AD,indicates irregularity of fluid motion inside the outer core.Mean annual changes of Z are generally divided into four phases,which first oscillated between 2000 and 800 BC,then increased,decreased and increased in the periods 800BC–300 AD,300–900 AD and 900–1900 AD,respectively.The intensity of mean annual change increased a total of 22.87nT/yr.Anomaly extreme locations based on 3K.4 and IGRF11 over EA centered around 44°N and 103°E for degree(n)greater than 5,and intensities continuously increased with n.During 2000 BC–1990 AD,ND energy of Z at the surface and CMB had decreased in total by 18.29%and 23.23%,respectively.The field source of 26–210 pole fields are more or less affected by the lithospheric field.Energies of higher degree at the surface attenuate by almost 99%compared with CMB,but mean attenuation speeds of the low-degree ND field are faster than high-degree,which implies that the low-degree ND field has a deeper source.
