Rapid colonization by invasive plants threatened local biodiversity worldwide;however,their distributional hotspots and future habitat shifts remain poorly understood in developing nations such as Nigeria.Using MaxEnt...Rapid colonization by invasive plants threatened local biodiversity worldwide;however,their distributional hotspots and future habitat shifts remain poorly understood in developing nations such as Nigeria.Using MaxEnt model,we investigated present and future habitat suitability for two aggressive invaders,C.odorata and T.diversifolia,across Nigeria's urban landscapes.We used a dataset consisting of 327 and 108 occurrence points for C.odorata and T.diversifolia,respectively,along with twenty-three(23)environmental variables to identify occurrence and areas of concern under current climatic fluctuations.The results revealed that the model performed strongly(AUC>0.85)and identified precipitation seasonality as the dominant predictor for both species.The finding indicates that precipitation seasonality of≤59 CV,isothermality of≥57%and precipitation of wettest month of≥170 mm enhance niche occupancy of C.odorata,while precipitation seasonality of 62-70 CV,precipitation of wettest quarter and maximum temperature of warmest month of≥450 mm and 35℃,respectively enhance that of T.differsifolia.Current predictions place C.odorata primarily along the southern coast,while T.diversifolia is most suitable in the southwest and extends into the northcentral.Future suitable area for C.odorata will slightly expand by 2050 and 2070,encroaching into southeastern and some central states.In contrast,T.diversifolia contracts under CNRM-CM5 but shows a modest expansion under GFDL-CM3.These projections indicate that climate change may reinforce the dominance of C.odorata in southern Nigeria,whereas T.differsifolia may exhibit divergent trajectories from southern to certain northern states in the future.展开更多
文摘Rapid colonization by invasive plants threatened local biodiversity worldwide;however,their distributional hotspots and future habitat shifts remain poorly understood in developing nations such as Nigeria.Using MaxEnt model,we investigated present and future habitat suitability for two aggressive invaders,C.odorata and T.diversifolia,across Nigeria's urban landscapes.We used a dataset consisting of 327 and 108 occurrence points for C.odorata and T.diversifolia,respectively,along with twenty-three(23)environmental variables to identify occurrence and areas of concern under current climatic fluctuations.The results revealed that the model performed strongly(AUC>0.85)and identified precipitation seasonality as the dominant predictor for both species.The finding indicates that precipitation seasonality of≤59 CV,isothermality of≥57%and precipitation of wettest month of≥170 mm enhance niche occupancy of C.odorata,while precipitation seasonality of 62-70 CV,precipitation of wettest quarter and maximum temperature of warmest month of≥450 mm and 35℃,respectively enhance that of T.differsifolia.Current predictions place C.odorata primarily along the southern coast,while T.diversifolia is most suitable in the southwest and extends into the northcentral.Future suitable area for C.odorata will slightly expand by 2050 and 2070,encroaching into southeastern and some central states.In contrast,T.diversifolia contracts under CNRM-CM5 but shows a modest expansion under GFDL-CM3.These projections indicate that climate change may reinforce the dominance of C.odorata in southern Nigeria,whereas T.differsifolia may exhibit divergent trajectories from southern to certain northern states in the future.
