The lack of knowledge concerning modelling existing buildings leads to significant variability in fragility curves for single or grouped existing buildings. This study aims to investigate the uncertainties of fragilit...The lack of knowledge concerning modelling existing buildings leads to significant variability in fragility curves for single or grouped existing buildings. This study aims to investigate the uncertainties of fragility curves, with special consideration of the single-building sigma. Experimental data and simplified models are applied to the BRD tower in Bucharest, Romania, a RC building with permanent instrumentation. A three-step methodology is applied： （1） adjustment of a linear MDOF model for experimental modal analysis using a Timoshenko beam model and based on Anderson＇s criteria, （2） computation of the structure＇s response to a large set of accelerograms simulated by SIMQKE software, considering twelve ground motion parameters as intensity measurements （IM）, and （3） construction of the fragility curves by comparing numerical interstory drift with the threshold criteria provided by the Hazus methodology for the slight damage state. By introducing experimental data into the model, uncertainty is reduced to 0.02 considering Sd ） as seismic intensity IM and uncertainty related to the model is assessed at 0.03. These values must be compared with the total uncertainty value of around 0.7 provided by the Hazus methodology.展开更多
Microscopic enteritis(ME) is an inflammatory condition of the small bowel that leads to gastrointestinal symptoms,nutrient and micronutrient deficiency.It is characterised by microscopic or sub-microscopic abnormaliti...Microscopic enteritis(ME) is an inflammatory condition of the small bowel that leads to gastrointestinal symptoms,nutrient and micronutrient deficiency.It is characterised by microscopic or sub-microscopic abnormalities such as microvillus changes and enterocytic alterations in the absence of definite macroscopic changes using standard modern endoscopy.This work recognises a need to characterize disorders with microscopic and submicroscopic features,currently regarded as functional or non-specific entities,to obtain further understanding of their clinical relevance.The consensus working party reviewed statements about the aetiology,diagnosis and symptoms associated with ME and proposes an algorithm for its investigation and treatment.Following the 5th International Course in Digestive Pathology in Bucharest in November 2012,an international group of 21 interested pathologists and gastroenterologists formed a working party with a view to formulating a consensus statement on ME.A five-step agreement scale(from strong agreement to strong disagreement) was used to score 21 statements,independently.There was strong agreement on all statements about ME histology(95%-100%).Statements concerning diagnosis achieved 85% to 100% agreement.A statement on the management of ME elicited agreement from the lowest rate(60%) up to 100%.The remaining two categories showed general agreement between experts on clinical presentation(75%-95%) and pathogenesis(80%-90%) of ME.There was strong agreement on the histological definition of ME.Weaker agreement on management indicates a need for further investigations,better definitions and clinical trials to produce quality guidelines for management.This ME consensus is a step toward greater recognition of a significant entity affecting symptomatic patients previously labelled as non-specific or functional enteropathy.展开更多
On September 12th,2020,the Turkish Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning issued a final approved version of an EIA(Environmental Impact Assessment)report for the Sinop(4,800 MWe)nuclear power plant and nuclear fu...On September 12th,2020,the Turkish Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning issued a final approved version of an EIA(Environmental Impact Assessment)report for the Sinop(4,800 MWe)nuclear power plant and nuclear fuel fabrication complex project,located on Turkey’s Southern Black Sea coastline,in the Sinop Providence,which will be built on a BOO(Build-Own-Operate)basis by an offshore company known as General Directorate of Electricity Generation Inc.(EUAS)International ICC,along with unknown shadowy partners and investors.This project violates the Convention on the Protection of the Black Sea against Pollution,namely,Bucharest’s Convention of 1992,and the Sofia Protocol of 2018 which are established to preserve the uniqueness of the Black Sea,sustain the fisheries,and protect marine life.The Black Sea is the largest anoxic water basin in the world with oxygen rich surface waters supporting marine life which constitute only about 13% of the Black Sea volume.For the rest of the entire Black Sea at a depth greater than 150-200 m,there is a permanent hydrogen sulphide zone devoid of life,the oxygen is completely absent after this level.This unique bio-hydrological characteristic has been regulating the preconditions of its following distinctive biodiversity for thousands of years.The biologically rich regions are only limited to only oxygen rich shelf zones,with depths of up to 50-100 m in the southern coast line,and in the northern Black Sea shallow-water areas with depths of up to 5-10 m.This water body,bordering the hydrogen sulphide zone,is approximately 200-300 m wide and averages 5-50 m deep,in which high concentrations of fish eggs and larvae strive,and circulate counterclockwise along 4340 km coastline of the Black Sea.展开更多
Recent seismic events show that urban areas are increasingly vulnerable to seismic damage,which leads to unprecedented levels of risk.Cities are complex systems and as such their analysis requires a good understanding...Recent seismic events show that urban areas are increasingly vulnerable to seismic damage,which leads to unprecedented levels of risk.Cities are complex systems and as such their analysis requires a good understanding of the interactions between space and the socioeconomic variables characteristic of the inhabitants of urban space.There is a clear need to develop and test detailed models that describe the behavior of these interactions under seismic impact.This article develops an overall vulnerability index to seismic hazard based on a spatial approach applied to Bucharest,Romania,the most earthquake-prone capital in the European Union.The methodology relies on:(1) spatial post-processed socioeconomic data from the2011 Romanian census through multicriteria analysis;and(2) analytical methods(the Improved Displacement Coefficient Method and custom-defined vulnerability functions)for estimating damage patterns,incorporated in a GIS environment.We computed vulnerability indices for the128 census tracts of the city.Model sensitivity assessment tested the robustness of spatially identified patterns of building vulnerability in the face of uncertainty in model inputs.The results show that useful seismic vulnerability indices can be obtained through interdisciplinaryapproaches that enhance less detailed datasets,which leads lead to better targeted mitigation efforts.展开更多
This article identifies and analyzes the effects of human pressures on the river systems,landscape,flow regime,and water quality in the Bucharest region,the largest urbanized area in Romania.The analyses focused on fo...This article identifies and analyzes the effects of human pressures on the river systems,landscape,flow regime,and water quality in the Bucharest region,the largest urbanized area in Romania.The analyses focused on four streams crossing the Bucharest region,namely the Dâmboviţa,Colentina,Argeş,and Sabar rivers.Our approach relied especially on three types of information:(1)spatial data;(2)hydrological data sets;and(3)water quality data.We made a diachronic analysis of the available maps and ran classic statistical analysis of the data sets,as well as trend analysis.At the same time,we compared the flows in natural(reconstituted)and modified(current)regimes.The results showed that the stream system and its associated landscapes have considerably changed due to several engineering works(reservoirs,dams,channelization works,diversion canals,water intakes,etc.).Under these circumstances,the flow regime suffered changes that differed among the rivers.Thus,the multiannual discharges of the Argeşand Dâmboviţa rivers did not exhibit significant changes,but only mitigated the monthly discharge variability.In the case of Sabar and Colentina,a significant increase of the annual and monthly discharges was identified,due to the water transferred from the neighboring rivers.Water quality worsened,especially on the lower courses of the Dâmboviţa and Argeşrivers,degrading the states and health of the aquatic ecosystems in the study region.展开更多
In this article, the fragility of reinforced concrete and steel structures in Bucharest, a city of high seismic hazard, designed using the recent building codes in Romania, is assessed. A total of 24 reinforced concre...In this article, the fragility of reinforced concrete and steel structures in Bucharest, a city of high seismic hazard, designed using the recent building codes in Romania, is assessed. A total of 24 reinforced concrete and steel structures with heights varying from five stories to 13 stories were analyzed. Their seismic fragility was evaluated using two procedures from the literature. In the first procedure(SPO2 FRAG), the fragility was derived based on the pushover curves using the SPO2 IDA algorithm, while in the second procedure(FRACAS), the fragility was derived from nonlinear time-history analyses. The analyzed structures were designed for three levels of peak ground accelerations, corresponding to mean return periods of 100,225, and 475 years. Subsequently, the damage assessment of the analyzed structures was performed using ground motions generated from a Monte-Carlo simulated earthquake catalogue for the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source. The damage degrees that were estimated using the SPO2 FRAG approach are higher than those estimated using the FRACAS approach. The life-cycle analysis of the structures shows that a further increase of the design peak ground acceleration for Bucharest is feasible from an economic point of view using the SPO2 FRAG results.However, based on the FRACAS results, the opposite conclusion can be drawn. Finally, generic lognormal fragility functions are proposed as a function of building height and structural system.展开更多
This research relied on an extended theory of planed behavior,introducing risk perception as a predictor of the willingness to implement earthquake preparedness behavior,and examining its relationships with the tradit...This research relied on an extended theory of planed behavior,introducing risk perception as a predictor of the willingness to implement earthquake preparedness behavior,and examining its relationships with the traditional components of the theory.The study used an online snowball sample of 369 participants from Bucharest,collected in February–March 2024.The sample is almost equally divided between women and men,aged 18 to 65,most of them holding higher education degrees and living in apartment buildings with more than eight floors.The investigation revolved around two hypotheses:(1)subjective norm is the primary driver of the intention to conduct preparedness behavior in Bucharest;and(2)diff erent constructs(behavior factors)amplify or impede changes in disaster preparedness behavior,also serving as catalysts for these changes.A highlight of the results is that risk perception does not directly influence disaster preparedness behavior or intention to prepare,but it is strongly linked to subjective norm.The limited association between risk perception and attitudes toward disaster preparedness behavior warrants further analysis.These insights into the drivers of disaster preparedness are essential for developing eff ective programs to raise awareness about seismic risk,seismic adjustments,risk mitigation,and capacity building.This study aimed to examine the relationship between risk perception and disaster preparedness behavior,focusing on the seismic risk faced by the population of Bucharest.The research design is rooted in the theory of planned behavior(Ajzen 1985,1991),which was modified to include risk perception as a predictor of the willingness to implement disaster preparedness(Ng 2022).By exploring the risk perception-preparedness behavior link under the presented theoretical background,this study addressed the three stated research gaps.It provides a deeper understanding of what drives earthquake preparedness in a European capital that is highly prone and vulnerable to seismic hazards(Arma?2012;Giardini et al.2013;Arma?,Ionescu,et al.2016),but where earthquake awareness and preparedness are generally low(Arma?2006;Arma?,Cretu,et al.2017).展开更多
In the past decades, the necessity for detailed earthquake microzonation studies was recognized worldwide. Therefore, different approaches were established and applied. Unfortunately, the majority of these approaches ...In the past decades, the necessity for detailed earthquake microzonation studies was recognized worldwide. Therefore, different approaches were established and applied. Unfortunately, the majority of these approaches are not based on pre-existing field data but require extensive seismic measurements and investigations. Furthermore, these approaches incorporate non-linearity inadequately and cannot take groundwater level changes into account. For this purpose, notably numerical models are most suitable. These models require a good knowledge of the local geological conditions （especially of the uppermost unconsolidated units）, information about the geotechnical parameters of these units, and a hydrogeological model of the investigated area. Most of this information can be obtained from geotechnical investigations and surveys that have already been carried out in most densely populated areas. In a case study for Bucharest City, non-linear analyses were performed using software that is based on the visco-hypoplastic constitutive law. The results indicate that groundwater level changes have an important influence on duration and amplitude of ground response and thus should be considered for seismic microzonation studies. This approach ean be used to display site effects and to identify different microzones taking different earthquake magnitudes and groundwater levels into account.展开更多
The 8^(th) Symposium of IGCP 506 was held in Bucharest(Romania)during August-September,2009.At the 5th IGCP Symposium in Hammamet(Tunisia),a proposal was made by Mihai E.Popa to organize the symposium in Romania and w...The 8^(th) Symposium of IGCP 506 was held in Bucharest(Romania)during August-September,2009.At the 5th IGCP Symposium in Hammamet(Tunisia),a proposal was made by Mihai E.Popa to organize the symposium in Romania and we had agreed.展开更多
基金the ANR National Research Agency as Part of Its RiskNat Program(URBASIS project)under Grant No.ANR-09-RISK-009the Rh ne-Alpes Regional Council(Programme Vulnerabilitédes Ouvrages aux Risques)and the Joseph Fourier Université(Grenoble 1)
文摘The lack of knowledge concerning modelling existing buildings leads to significant variability in fragility curves for single or grouped existing buildings. This study aims to investigate the uncertainties of fragility curves, with special consideration of the single-building sigma. Experimental data and simplified models are applied to the BRD tower in Bucharest, Romania, a RC building with permanent instrumentation. A three-step methodology is applied： （1） adjustment of a linear MDOF model for experimental modal analysis using a Timoshenko beam model and based on Anderson＇s criteria, （2） computation of the structure＇s response to a large set of accelerograms simulated by SIMQKE software, considering twelve ground motion parameters as intensity measurements （IM）, and （3） construction of the fragility curves by comparing numerical interstory drift with the threshold criteria provided by the Hazus methodology for the slight damage state. By introducing experimental data into the model, uncertainty is reduced to 0.02 considering Sd ） as seismic intensity IM and uncertainty related to the model is assessed at 0.03. These values must be compared with the total uncertainty value of around 0.7 provided by the Hazus methodology.
文摘Microscopic enteritis(ME) is an inflammatory condition of the small bowel that leads to gastrointestinal symptoms,nutrient and micronutrient deficiency.It is characterised by microscopic or sub-microscopic abnormalities such as microvillus changes and enterocytic alterations in the absence of definite macroscopic changes using standard modern endoscopy.This work recognises a need to characterize disorders with microscopic and submicroscopic features,currently regarded as functional or non-specific entities,to obtain further understanding of their clinical relevance.The consensus working party reviewed statements about the aetiology,diagnosis and symptoms associated with ME and proposes an algorithm for its investigation and treatment.Following the 5th International Course in Digestive Pathology in Bucharest in November 2012,an international group of 21 interested pathologists and gastroenterologists formed a working party with a view to formulating a consensus statement on ME.A five-step agreement scale(from strong agreement to strong disagreement) was used to score 21 statements,independently.There was strong agreement on all statements about ME histology(95%-100%).Statements concerning diagnosis achieved 85% to 100% agreement.A statement on the management of ME elicited agreement from the lowest rate(60%) up to 100%.The remaining two categories showed general agreement between experts on clinical presentation(75%-95%) and pathogenesis(80%-90%) of ME.There was strong agreement on the histological definition of ME.Weaker agreement on management indicates a need for further investigations,better definitions and clinical trials to produce quality guidelines for management.This ME consensus is a step toward greater recognition of a significant entity affecting symptomatic patients previously labelled as non-specific or functional enteropathy.
文摘On September 12th,2020,the Turkish Ministry of Environment and Urban Planning issued a final approved version of an EIA(Environmental Impact Assessment)report for the Sinop(4,800 MWe)nuclear power plant and nuclear fuel fabrication complex project,located on Turkey’s Southern Black Sea coastline,in the Sinop Providence,which will be built on a BOO(Build-Own-Operate)basis by an offshore company known as General Directorate of Electricity Generation Inc.(EUAS)International ICC,along with unknown shadowy partners and investors.This project violates the Convention on the Protection of the Black Sea against Pollution,namely,Bucharest’s Convention of 1992,and the Sofia Protocol of 2018 which are established to preserve the uniqueness of the Black Sea,sustain the fisheries,and protect marine life.The Black Sea is the largest anoxic water basin in the world with oxygen rich surface waters supporting marine life which constitute only about 13% of the Black Sea volume.For the rest of the entire Black Sea at a depth greater than 150-200 m,there is a permanent hydrogen sulphide zone devoid of life,the oxygen is completely absent after this level.This unique bio-hydrological characteristic has been regulating the preconditions of its following distinctive biodiversity for thousands of years.The biologically rich regions are only limited to only oxygen rich shelf zones,with depths of up to 50-100 m in the southern coast line,and in the northern Black Sea shallow-water areas with depths of up to 5-10 m.This water body,bordering the hydrogen sulphide zone,is approximately 200-300 m wide and averages 5-50 m deep,in which high concentrations of fish eggs and larvae strive,and circulate counterclockwise along 4340 km coastline of the Black Sea.
基金supported by The Executive Unit for Financing the Higher Education and University Researches (UEFISCDI)the REVEAL Project No. 285/2011the NUCLEU CREATOR Programme, Project No. PN-1635-02-03
文摘Recent seismic events show that urban areas are increasingly vulnerable to seismic damage,which leads to unprecedented levels of risk.Cities are complex systems and as such their analysis requires a good understanding of the interactions between space and the socioeconomic variables characteristic of the inhabitants of urban space.There is a clear need to develop and test detailed models that describe the behavior of these interactions under seismic impact.This article develops an overall vulnerability index to seismic hazard based on a spatial approach applied to Bucharest,Romania,the most earthquake-prone capital in the European Union.The methodology relies on:(1) spatial post-processed socioeconomic data from the2011 Romanian census through multicriteria analysis;and(2) analytical methods(the Improved Displacement Coefficient Method and custom-defined vulnerability functions)for estimating damage patterns,incorporated in a GIS environment.We computed vulnerability indices for the128 census tracts of the city.Model sensitivity assessment tested the robustness of spatially identified patterns of building vulnerability in the face of uncertainty in model inputs.The results show that useful seismic vulnerability indices can be obtained through interdisciplinaryapproaches that enhance less detailed datasets,which leads lead to better targeted mitigation efforts.
文摘This article identifies and analyzes the effects of human pressures on the river systems,landscape,flow regime,and water quality in the Bucharest region,the largest urbanized area in Romania.The analyses focused on four streams crossing the Bucharest region,namely the Dâmboviţa,Colentina,Argeş,and Sabar rivers.Our approach relied especially on three types of information:(1)spatial data;(2)hydrological data sets;and(3)water quality data.We made a diachronic analysis of the available maps and ran classic statistical analysis of the data sets,as well as trend analysis.At the same time,we compared the flows in natural(reconstituted)and modified(current)regimes.The results showed that the stream system and its associated landscapes have considerably changed due to several engineering works(reservoirs,dams,channelization works,diversion canals,water intakes,etc.).Under these circumstances,the flow regime suffered changes that differed among the rivers.Thus,the multiannual discharges of the Argeşand Dâmboviţa rivers did not exhibit significant changes,but only mitigated the monthly discharge variability.In the case of Sabar and Colentina,a significant increase of the annual and monthly discharges was identified,due to the water transferred from the neighboring rivers.Water quality worsened,especially on the lower courses of the Dâmboviţa and Argeşrivers,degrading the states and health of the aquatic ecosystems in the study region.
文摘In this article, the fragility of reinforced concrete and steel structures in Bucharest, a city of high seismic hazard, designed using the recent building codes in Romania, is assessed. A total of 24 reinforced concrete and steel structures with heights varying from five stories to 13 stories were analyzed. Their seismic fragility was evaluated using two procedures from the literature. In the first procedure(SPO2 FRAG), the fragility was derived based on the pushover curves using the SPO2 IDA algorithm, while in the second procedure(FRACAS), the fragility was derived from nonlinear time-history analyses. The analyzed structures were designed for three levels of peak ground accelerations, corresponding to mean return periods of 100,225, and 475 years. Subsequently, the damage assessment of the analyzed structures was performed using ground motions generated from a Monte-Carlo simulated earthquake catalogue for the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source. The damage degrees that were estimated using the SPO2 FRAG approach are higher than those estimated using the FRACAS approach. The life-cycle analysis of the structures shows that a further increase of the design peak ground acceleration for Bucharest is feasible from an economic point of view using the SPO2 FRAG results.However, based on the FRACAS results, the opposite conclusion can be drawn. Finally, generic lognormal fragility functions are proposed as a function of building height and structural system.
基金supported by UEFISCDI PN-IV-P8-8.1-PRE-HE-ORG-2023-0120 and the University of Bucharest。
文摘This research relied on an extended theory of planed behavior,introducing risk perception as a predictor of the willingness to implement earthquake preparedness behavior,and examining its relationships with the traditional components of the theory.The study used an online snowball sample of 369 participants from Bucharest,collected in February–March 2024.The sample is almost equally divided between women and men,aged 18 to 65,most of them holding higher education degrees and living in apartment buildings with more than eight floors.The investigation revolved around two hypotheses:(1)subjective norm is the primary driver of the intention to conduct preparedness behavior in Bucharest;and(2)diff erent constructs(behavior factors)amplify or impede changes in disaster preparedness behavior,also serving as catalysts for these changes.A highlight of the results is that risk perception does not directly influence disaster preparedness behavior or intention to prepare,but it is strongly linked to subjective norm.The limited association between risk perception and attitudes toward disaster preparedness behavior warrants further analysis.These insights into the drivers of disaster preparedness are essential for developing eff ective programs to raise awareness about seismic risk,seismic adjustments,risk mitigation,and capacity building.This study aimed to examine the relationship between risk perception and disaster preparedness behavior,focusing on the seismic risk faced by the population of Bucharest.The research design is rooted in the theory of planned behavior(Ajzen 1985,1991),which was modified to include risk perception as a predictor of the willingness to implement disaster preparedness(Ng 2022).By exploring the risk perception-preparedness behavior link under the presented theoretical background,this study addressed the three stated research gaps.It provides a deeper understanding of what drives earthquake preparedness in a European capital that is highly prone and vulnerable to seismic hazards(Arma?2012;Giardini et al.2013;Arma?,Ionescu,et al.2016),but where earthquake awareness and preparedness are generally low(Arma?2006;Arma?,Cretu,et al.2017).
基金supported by the German Research Foundation(DFG), the State of Baden-Württemberg, and the University(TH) of Karlsruhe
文摘In the past decades, the necessity for detailed earthquake microzonation studies was recognized worldwide. Therefore, different approaches were established and applied. Unfortunately, the majority of these approaches are not based on pre-existing field data but require extensive seismic measurements and investigations. Furthermore, these approaches incorporate non-linearity inadequately and cannot take groundwater level changes into account. For this purpose, notably numerical models are most suitable. These models require a good knowledge of the local geological conditions （especially of the uppermost unconsolidated units）, information about the geotechnical parameters of these units, and a hydrogeological model of the investigated area. Most of this information can be obtained from geotechnical investigations and surveys that have already been carried out in most densely populated areas. In a case study for Bucharest City, non-linear analyses were performed using software that is based on the visco-hypoplastic constitutive law. The results indicate that groundwater level changes have an important influence on duration and amplitude of ground response and thus should be considered for seismic microzonation studies. This approach ean be used to display site effects and to identify different microzones taking different earthquake magnitudes and groundwater levels into account.
文摘The 8^(th) Symposium of IGCP 506 was held in Bucharest(Romania)during August-September,2009.At the 5th IGCP Symposium in Hammamet(Tunisia),a proposal was made by Mihai E.Popa to organize the symposium in Romania and we had agreed.
