In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. We consider data of Malaria cases from Ministry of Health (Kabwe District)-Zambia for the period, 2...In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. We consider data of Malaria cases from Ministry of Health (Kabwe District)-Zambia for the period, 2009 to 2013 for age 1 to under 5 years. The model-building process involves three steps: tentative identification of a model from the ARIMA class, estimation of parameters in the identified model, and diagnostic checks. Results show that an appropriate model is simply an ARIMA (1, 0, 0) due to the fact that, the ACF has an exponential decay and the PACF has a spike at lag 1 which is an indication of the said model. The forecasted Malaria cases for January and February, 2014 are 220 and 265, respectively.展开更多
Dezert-Smarandache（DSm） theory, a new information fusion theory, is widely applied in image processing, multiple targets tracking identification, and other areas for its excellent processing ability of imperfect inf...Dezert-Smarandache（DSm） theory, a new information fusion theory, is widely applied in image processing, multiple targets tracking identification, and other areas for its excellent processing ability of imperfect information. However, earlier research on DSm theory mainly focused on one sort of questions. An evidence fusion procedure is proposed based on the hybrid DSm model to compensate for a lack of research on the entire information procedure of DSm theory. This paper analyzes the evidence fusion procedure, as well as correlative node input and output information. Key steps and detailed procedures of evidence fusion are also discussed. Finally, an experiment illustrates the efficiency of the proposed evidence fusion procedure.展开更多
Time series forecasting plays a significant role in numerous applications,including but not limited to,industrial planning,water consumption,medical domains,exchange rates and consumer price index.The main problem is ...Time series forecasting plays a significant role in numerous applications,including but not limited to,industrial planning,water consumption,medical domains,exchange rates and consumer price index.The main problem is insufficient forecasting accuracy.The present study proposes a hybrid forecastingmethods to address this need.The proposed method includes three models.The first model is based on the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)statistical model;the second model is a back propagation neural network(BPNN)with adaptive slope and momentum parameters;and the thirdmodel is a hybridization between ARIMA and BPNN(ARIMA/BPNN)and artificial neural networks and ARIMA(ARIMA/ANN)to gain the benefits of linear and nonlinearmodeling.The forecasting models proposed in this study are used to predict the indices of the consumer price index(CPI),and predict the expected number of cancer patients in the Ibb Province in Yemen.Statistical standard measures used to evaluate the proposed method include(i)mean square error,(ii)mean absolute error,(iii)root mean square error,and(iv)mean absolute percentage error.Based on the computational results,the improvement rate of forecasting the CPI dataset was 5%,71%,and 4%for ARIMA/BPNN model,ARIMA/ANN model,and BPNN model respectively;while the result for cancer patients’dataset was 7%,200%,and 19%for ARIMA/BPNNmodel,ARIMA/ANN model,and BPNNmodel respectively.Therefore,it is obvious that the proposed method reduced the randomness degree,and the alterations affected the time series with data non-linearity.The ARIMA/ANN model outperformed each of its components when it was applied separately in terms of increasing the accuracy of forecasting and decreasing the overall errors of forecasting.展开更多
In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. The mobile cellular subscription data for the study were taken from the administrative data submitt...In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. The mobile cellular subscription data for the study were taken from the administrative data submitted to the Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority (ZICTA) as quarterly returns by all three mobile network operators Airtel Zambia, MTN Zambia and Zamtel. The time series of annual figures for mobile cellular subscription for all mobile network operators is from 2000 to 2014 and has a total of 15 observations. Results show that the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) is an adequate model which best fits the mobile cellular subscription time series and is therefore suitable for forecasting subscription. The model predicts a gradual rise in mobile cellular subscription in the next 5 years, culminating to about 9.0% cumulative increase in 2019.展开更多
In the simulation of discontinuous block systems,the discrete element method(DEM)has better computational efficiency and convergence than the finite element method(FEM).When several DEM particles are bonded together w...In the simulation of discontinuous block systems,the discrete element method(DEM)has better computational efficiency and convergence than the finite element method(FEM).When several DEM particles are bonded together with parallel bonds(the bonded particle model,BPM),various shapes and block fractures can be simulated.The main aim of the BPM is to simulate a continuous material in which the stress distribution is continuous.Since the existing stress result for a single particle is an average value over the particle’s area,stress results do not exist in the area between particles.In this paper,the stress value for a single two-dimensional DEM particle is deduced.A stress recovery procedure with a linear stress function for a triangular element generated by the centroids of three bonded particles is proposed.In this way,the recovered stress field for the whole mesh composed of all triangular elements is continuous.A stress gradient exists in the whole mesh.This can also provide more accurate stress values for judging a fracture inside a block.Symmetrical and asymmetrical models are simulated by the BPM and FEM.Similar to the FEM results,the recovered stress results for the BPM can describe the stress distribution in the simulated continuous blocks.For the model with the theoretical stress solution,the recovered result and the theoretical solution coincide well.展开更多
The time domain approach, i.e. Autoregressive (AR) processes, of time series analysis is applied to the monsoon rainfall series of India and its two major regions, viz. North-West India and Central India. Since the or...The time domain approach, i.e. Autoregressive (AR) processes, of time series analysis is applied to the monsoon rainfall series of India and its two major regions, viz. North-West India and Central India. Since the original time series shows no modelable structure due to the presence of high interannual variability, a 3-point running filter is applied before exploring and fitting appropriate stochastic models. Out of several parsimonious models fitted, AR(3) is found to be most suitable. The usefulness of this fitted model is validted on an independent datum of 18 years and some skill has been noted. These models therefore can be used for low skill higher lead time forecasts of monsoon. Further the forecasts produced through such models can be combined with other forecasts to increase the skill of monsoon forecasts.展开更多
In the field of computer graphics, procedural modeling has proven useful for the generation of models of complex realistic objects and environment. In this paper, we present something about the procedural techniques a...In the field of computer graphics, procedural modeling has proven useful for the generation of models of complex realistic objects and environment. In this paper, we present something about the procedural techniques and its application on city modeling.展开更多
Objective To evaluate the use of the saphenous artery as an alternative access for endovascular procedures in the porcine model. Methods Fourteen adult pigs (25-35 kg) were used in this study, 3 pigs from an acute stu...Objective To evaluate the use of the saphenous artery as an alternative access for endovascular procedures in the porcine model. Methods Fourteen adult pigs (25-35 kg) were used in this study, 3 pigs from an acute study and 11 from chronic studies. A 2-3 cm incision was made and a saphenous artery cutdown was performed in 24 sides. Micropuncture sets (Boston Scientific) or 18 G puncture needles were used to access the artery. Different sizes of introducers (4-7 F) were used to establish endovascular access. Angiographic catheters were then used to confirm if the access was usable. Four saphenous arteries were explanted in the pigs from a chronic study 4 to 28 days after surgical procedure. Results The saphenous artery was very easy to expose and 4-5 F introducer sheaths were able to be inserted to establish access for endovascular procedures in the pigs. The saphenous artery was unable to accomodate an introducer with a size larger than 6 F. Four saphenous arteries were injured when 5 and 6 F introducers were used, but angiographic procedures could still be performed. Morphologic evaluation of the explanted arteries demonstrated occlusion of the saphenous arteries without injury or disruption of the adjacent femoral arteries. Conclusion The saphenous artery can be used as an access site in pigs for angiographic and interventional procedures if the catheter size is less than 6 F. This vessel is easier to access and can preserve the femoral artery for repeat procedures in the future.展开更多
In order to generate the three-dimensional (3-D) hull surface accurately and smoothly,a mixed method which is made up of non-uniform B-spline together with an iterative procedure was developed.By using the iterative m...In order to generate the three-dimensional (3-D) hull surface accurately and smoothly,a mixed method which is made up of non-uniform B-spline together with an iterative procedure was developed.By using the iterative method the data points on each section curve are calculated and the generalized waterlines and transverse section curves are determined.Then using the non-uniform B-spline expression,the control vertex net of the hull is calculated based on the generalized waterlines and section curves.A ship with tunnel stern was taken as test case.The numerical results prove that the proposed approach for geometry modeling of 3-D ship hull surface is accurate and effective.展开更多
From the viewpoint of interaction mechanics for solid and gas, a coupled mathematical model was presented for solid coal/rock deformation and gas leak flow in parallel deformable coal seams. Numerical solutions using ...From the viewpoint of interaction mechanics for solid and gas, a coupled mathematical model was presented for solid coal/rock deformation and gas leak flow in parallel deformable coal seams. Numerical solutions using the SIP (Strong Implicit Proce- dure) method to the coupled mathematical model for double parallel coal seams were also developed in detail. Numerical simulations for the prediction of the safety range using protection layer mining were performed with experimental data from a mine with potential danger of coal/gas outbursts. Analyses show that the numerical simulation results are consistent with the measured data in situ.展开更多
Time-series analysis is important to a wide range of disciplines transcending both the physical and social sciences for proactive policy decisions. Statistical models have sound theoretical basis and have been success...Time-series analysis is important to a wide range of disciplines transcending both the physical and social sciences for proactive policy decisions. Statistical models have sound theoretical basis and have been successfully used in a number of problem domains in time series forecasting. Due to power and flexibility, Box-Jenkins ARIMA model has gained enormous popularity in many areas and research practice for the last three decades. More recently, the neural networks have been shown to be a promising alternative tool for modeling and forecasting owing to their ability to capture the nonlinearity in the data. However, despite the popularity and the superiority of ARIMA and ANN models, the empirical forecasting performance has been rather mixed so that no single method is best in every situation. In this study, a hybrid ARIMA and neural networks model to time series forecasting is proposed. The basic idea behind the model combination is to use each model’s unique features to capture different patterns in the data. With three real data sets, empirical results evidently show that the hybrid model outperforms ARIMA and ANN model noticeably in terms of forecasting accuracy used in isolation.展开更多
The shortage of personal protective equipment and lack of proper nursing training have been endangering health care workers dealing with coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19).In our treatment center,the implementation of...The shortage of personal protective equipment and lack of proper nursing training have been endangering health care workers dealing with coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19).In our treatment center,the implementation of a holistic care model of time-sharing management for severe and critical COVID-19 patients has further aggravated the shortage of intensive care unit(ICU)professional nurses.Therefore,we developed a short-term specialized and targeted nursing training program to help ICU nurses to cope with stress and become more efficient,thus reducing the number of nurses required in the ICU.In order to avoid possible human-to-human spread,small teaching classes and remote training were applied.The procedural training mode included four steps:preparation,plan,implementation,and evaluation.An evaluation was conducted throughout the process of nursing training.In this study,we documented and shared experiences in transitioning from traditional face-to-face programs to remote combined with proceduralization nursing training mode from our daily work experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic,which has shown to be helpful for nurses working in the ICU.展开更多
This study addresses the need of making reality-based 3D urban models more detailed.Our method combines the established workflows from photogrammetry and procedural modelling in order to exploit distinct advantages of...This study addresses the need of making reality-based 3D urban models more detailed.Our method combines the established workflows from photogrammetry and procedural modelling in order to exploit distinct advantages of both approaches.Our overall workflow uses photogrammetry for measuring geo-referenced satellite imagery to create 3D building models and textured roof geometry.The results are then used to create attributed building footprints,which can be applied in the procedural modelling part of the workflow.Thereby procedural building models and detailed façade structures,based on street-level photos,are created.The final step merges the textured roof geometry with the procedural façade geometry,resulting in an improved model compared with using each technique alone.The article details the individual workflow steps and exemplifies the approach by means of a concrete case study carried out in Singapore's Punggol area,where we modelled a newly developed part of Singapore,consisting mainly of 3D high-rise towers.展开更多
Foot-and-mouth disease(FMD)is an acute,highly infectious and pathogenic animal disease.In recent years,with the rapid development of the swine breeding industry in China,pig farms have shown a trend of larger-scale de...Foot-and-mouth disease(FMD)is an acute,highly infectious and pathogenic animal disease.In recent years,with the rapid development of the swine breeding industry in China,pig farms have shown a trend of larger-scale development.Large-scale pig farms employ standardized management,a high level of automation,and a strict_system.However,these farms have a large trading volume,and increased transmission intensity of FMD is noted inside the farm.At present,the main control measure against FMD is pig vaccination.However,a standard for immunization procedures is not available,and currently adopted immunization procedures have not been effectively and systematically evaluated.Taking a typical large-scale pig farm in China as the research subject and considering the breeding pattern,piggery structure,age structure and immunization procedures,an individual-based state probability model is established to evaluate the effectiveness of the immune procedure.Based on numerical simulation,it is concluded that the optimal immunization program involves primary immunization at 40 days of age and secondary immunization at 80 days of age for commercial pigs.Breeding boars and breeding sows are immunized 4 times a year,and reserve pigs are immunized at 169 and 259 days of age.According to the theoretical analysis,the average control reproduction number of individuals under the optimal immunization procedure in the farm is 0.4927.In the absence of immunization,the average is 1.7498,indicating that the epidemic cannot be controlled without immunization procedures.展开更多
Monitoring high-dimensional multistage processes becomes crucial to ensure the quality of the final product in modern industry environments. Few statistical process monitoring(SPC) approaches for monitoring and contro...Monitoring high-dimensional multistage processes becomes crucial to ensure the quality of the final product in modern industry environments. Few statistical process monitoring(SPC) approaches for monitoring and controlling quality in highdimensional multistage processes are studied. We propose a deviance residual-based multivariate exponentially weighted moving average(MEWMA) control chart with a variable selection procedure. We demonstrate that it outperforms the existing multivariate SPC charts in terms of out-of-control average run length(ARL) for the detection of process mean shift.展开更多
In the developing course of the information system, the modeling method of information system and model expressing problem are very important. This paper through discussing the facing object of Petri network, expatiat...In the developing course of the information system, the modeling method of information system and model expressing problem are very important. This paper through discussing the facing object of Petri network, expatiates the basic problem of how to set up the business procedure model on the basis of Petri network, and shows the expressing and storing methods of the model in computer way.展开更多
The Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5 advocated the reduction of maternal mortality rates significantly by 2015, however, maternal mortality rates continue to rise. Here, we modelled maternal mortality data for the ...The Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5 advocated the reduction of maternal mortality rates significantly by 2015, however, maternal mortality rates continue to rise. Here, we modelled maternal mortality data for the years 2000 to 2013 obtained from a public hospital in Kumasi, Ghana. We applied the Box-Jenkins approach of univariate form of time series autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The output revealed that the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model was most appropriate to model and predict monthly maternal cases with Akaike information criterion (AIC) value of 117.02 and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) value of 125.91. The Shapiro-Wilk normality test confirmed normality of the residuals. The Ljung-Box test on the residuals showed no serial correlation. The model was then validated based on the measures of accuracy. The results showed that the maternal mortality cases for the years 2000 to 2011 are high: minimum 3, median 11, mean 12 and maximum cases of 26 per month. The predicted mortality cases were 10 to 11 monthly for years 2012 to 2013, indicating that the target of MDG 5 could not be achieved by 2015. Fresh and perceptive strategies are urgently needed to arrest the unacceptably high death rates.展开更多
文摘In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. We consider data of Malaria cases from Ministry of Health (Kabwe District)-Zambia for the period, 2009 to 2013 for age 1 to under 5 years. The model-building process involves three steps: tentative identification of a model from the ARIMA class, estimation of parameters in the identified model, and diagnostic checks. Results show that an appropriate model is simply an ARIMA (1, 0, 0) due to the fact that, the ACF has an exponential decay and the PACF has a spike at lag 1 which is an indication of the said model. The forecasted Malaria cases for January and February, 2014 are 220 and 265, respectively.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61102168)the Military Innovation Foundation(X11QN106)
文摘Dezert-Smarandache（DSm） theory, a new information fusion theory, is widely applied in image processing, multiple targets tracking identification, and other areas for its excellent processing ability of imperfect information. However, earlier research on DSm theory mainly focused on one sort of questions. An evidence fusion procedure is proposed based on the hybrid DSm model to compensate for a lack of research on the entire information procedure of DSm theory. This paper analyzes the evidence fusion procedure, as well as correlative node input and output information. Key steps and detailed procedures of evidence fusion are also discussed. Finally, an experiment illustrates the efficiency of the proposed evidence fusion procedure.
基金Researchers would like to thank the Deanship of Scientific Research,Qassim University for funding the publication of this project.
文摘Time series forecasting plays a significant role in numerous applications,including but not limited to,industrial planning,water consumption,medical domains,exchange rates and consumer price index.The main problem is insufficient forecasting accuracy.The present study proposes a hybrid forecastingmethods to address this need.The proposed method includes three models.The first model is based on the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)statistical model;the second model is a back propagation neural network(BPNN)with adaptive slope and momentum parameters;and the thirdmodel is a hybridization between ARIMA and BPNN(ARIMA/BPNN)and artificial neural networks and ARIMA(ARIMA/ANN)to gain the benefits of linear and nonlinearmodeling.The forecasting models proposed in this study are used to predict the indices of the consumer price index(CPI),and predict the expected number of cancer patients in the Ibb Province in Yemen.Statistical standard measures used to evaluate the proposed method include(i)mean square error,(ii)mean absolute error,(iii)root mean square error,and(iv)mean absolute percentage error.Based on the computational results,the improvement rate of forecasting the CPI dataset was 5%,71%,and 4%for ARIMA/BPNN model,ARIMA/ANN model,and BPNN model respectively;while the result for cancer patients’dataset was 7%,200%,and 19%for ARIMA/BPNNmodel,ARIMA/ANN model,and BPNNmodel respectively.Therefore,it is obvious that the proposed method reduced the randomness degree,and the alterations affected the time series with data non-linearity.The ARIMA/ANN model outperformed each of its components when it was applied separately in terms of increasing the accuracy of forecasting and decreasing the overall errors of forecasting.
文摘In this paper, the Box-Jenkins modelling procedure is used to determine an ARIMA model and go further to forecasting. The mobile cellular subscription data for the study were taken from the administrative data submitted to the Zambia Information and Communications Technology Authority (ZICTA) as quarterly returns by all three mobile network operators Airtel Zambia, MTN Zambia and Zamtel. The time series of annual figures for mobile cellular subscription for all mobile network operators is from 2000 to 2014 and has a total of 15 observations. Results show that the ARIMA (1, 2, 1) is an adequate model which best fits the mobile cellular subscription time series and is therefore suitable for forecasting subscription. The model predicts a gradual rise in mobile cellular subscription in the next 5 years, culminating to about 9.0% cumulative increase in 2019.
基金This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public,commercial,or not-for-profit sectors.
文摘In the simulation of discontinuous block systems,the discrete element method(DEM)has better computational efficiency and convergence than the finite element method(FEM).When several DEM particles are bonded together with parallel bonds(the bonded particle model,BPM),various shapes and block fractures can be simulated.The main aim of the BPM is to simulate a continuous material in which the stress distribution is continuous.Since the existing stress result for a single particle is an average value over the particle’s area,stress results do not exist in the area between particles.In this paper,the stress value for a single two-dimensional DEM particle is deduced.A stress recovery procedure with a linear stress function for a triangular element generated by the centroids of three bonded particles is proposed.In this way,the recovered stress field for the whole mesh composed of all triangular elements is continuous.A stress gradient exists in the whole mesh.This can also provide more accurate stress values for judging a fracture inside a block.Symmetrical and asymmetrical models are simulated by the BPM and FEM.Similar to the FEM results,the recovered stress results for the BPM can describe the stress distribution in the simulated continuous blocks.For the model with the theoretical stress solution,the recovered result and the theoretical solution coincide well.
文摘The time domain approach, i.e. Autoregressive (AR) processes, of time series analysis is applied to the monsoon rainfall series of India and its two major regions, viz. North-West India and Central India. Since the original time series shows no modelable structure due to the presence of high interannual variability, a 3-point running filter is applied before exploring and fitting appropriate stochastic models. Out of several parsimonious models fitted, AR(3) is found to be most suitable. The usefulness of this fitted model is validted on an independent datum of 18 years and some skill has been noted. These models therefore can be used for low skill higher lead time forecasts of monsoon. Further the forecasts produced through such models can be combined with other forecasts to increase the skill of monsoon forecasts.
文摘In the field of computer graphics, procedural modeling has proven useful for the generation of models of complex realistic objects and environment. In this paper, we present something about the procedural techniques and its application on city modeling.
文摘Objective To evaluate the use of the saphenous artery as an alternative access for endovascular procedures in the porcine model. Methods Fourteen adult pigs (25-35 kg) were used in this study, 3 pigs from an acute study and 11 from chronic studies. A 2-3 cm incision was made and a saphenous artery cutdown was performed in 24 sides. Micropuncture sets (Boston Scientific) or 18 G puncture needles were used to access the artery. Different sizes of introducers (4-7 F) were used to establish endovascular access. Angiographic catheters were then used to confirm if the access was usable. Four saphenous arteries were explanted in the pigs from a chronic study 4 to 28 days after surgical procedure. Results The saphenous artery was very easy to expose and 4-5 F introducer sheaths were able to be inserted to establish access for endovascular procedures in the pigs. The saphenous artery was unable to accomodate an introducer with a size larger than 6 F. Four saphenous arteries were injured when 5 and 6 F introducers were used, but angiographic procedures could still be performed. Morphologic evaluation of the explanted arteries demonstrated occlusion of the saphenous arteries without injury or disruption of the adjacent femoral arteries. Conclusion The saphenous artery can be used as an access site in pigs for angiographic and interventional procedures if the catheter size is less than 6 F. This vessel is easier to access and can preserve the femoral artery for repeat procedures in the future.
基金The Special Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education(No.20050248037)The National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.10572094)
文摘In order to generate the three-dimensional (3-D) hull surface accurately and smoothly,a mixed method which is made up of non-uniform B-spline together with an iterative procedure was developed.By using the iterative method the data points on each section curve are calculated and the generalized waterlines and transverse section curves are determined.Then using the non-uniform B-spline expression,the control vertex net of the hull is calculated based on the generalized waterlines and section curves.A ship with tunnel stern was taken as test case.The numerical results prove that the proposed approach for geometry modeling of 3-D ship hull surface is accurate and effective.
文摘From the viewpoint of interaction mechanics for solid and gas, a coupled mathematical model was presented for solid coal/rock deformation and gas leak flow in parallel deformable coal seams. Numerical solutions using the SIP (Strong Implicit Proce- dure) method to the coupled mathematical model for double parallel coal seams were also developed in detail. Numerical simulations for the prediction of the safety range using protection layer mining were performed with experimental data from a mine with potential danger of coal/gas outbursts. Analyses show that the numerical simulation results are consistent with the measured data in situ.
文摘Time-series analysis is important to a wide range of disciplines transcending both the physical and social sciences for proactive policy decisions. Statistical models have sound theoretical basis and have been successfully used in a number of problem domains in time series forecasting. Due to power and flexibility, Box-Jenkins ARIMA model has gained enormous popularity in many areas and research practice for the last three decades. More recently, the neural networks have been shown to be a promising alternative tool for modeling and forecasting owing to their ability to capture the nonlinearity in the data. However, despite the popularity and the superiority of ARIMA and ANN models, the empirical forecasting performance has been rather mixed so that no single method is best in every situation. In this study, a hybrid ARIMA and neural networks model to time series forecasting is proposed. The basic idea behind the model combination is to use each model’s unique features to capture different patterns in the data. With three real data sets, empirical results evidently show that the hybrid model outperforms ARIMA and ANN model noticeably in terms of forecasting accuracy used in isolation.
基金Supported by The National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.81772045 and No.81902000Teaching project of the First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University,No.2017014.
文摘The shortage of personal protective equipment and lack of proper nursing training have been endangering health care workers dealing with coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19).In our treatment center,the implementation of a holistic care model of time-sharing management for severe and critical COVID-19 patients has further aggravated the shortage of intensive care unit(ICU)professional nurses.Therefore,we developed a short-term specialized and targeted nursing training program to help ICU nurses to cope with stress and become more efficient,thus reducing the number of nurses required in the ICU.In order to avoid possible human-to-human spread,small teaching classes and remote training were applied.The procedural training mode included four steps:preparation,plan,implementation,and evaluation.An evaluation was conducted throughout the process of nursing training.In this study,we documented and shared experiences in transitioning from traditional face-to-face programs to remote combined with proceduralization nursing training mode from our daily work experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic,which has shown to be helpful for nurses working in the ICU.
基金This study was established at the Singapore-ETH Centre for Global Environmental Sustainability(SEC),co-funded by the Singapore National Research Foundation(NRF)and ETH Zurich.
文摘This study addresses the need of making reality-based 3D urban models more detailed.Our method combines the established workflows from photogrammetry and procedural modelling in order to exploit distinct advantages of both approaches.Our overall workflow uses photogrammetry for measuring geo-referenced satellite imagery to create 3D building models and textured roof geometry.The results are then used to create attributed building footprints,which can be applied in the procedural modelling part of the workflow.Thereby procedural building models and detailed façade structures,based on street-level photos,are created.The final step merges the textured roof geometry with the procedural façade geometry,resulting in an improved model compared with using each technique alone.The article details the individual workflow steps and exemplifies the approach by means of a concrete case study carried out in Singapore's Punggol area,where we modelled a newly developed part of Singapore,consisting mainly of 3D high-rise towers.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFD0501501)the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant(11601292,61873154,11801398)+4 种基金Fund Program for the Scientific Activities of Selected Returned Overseas Professionals in Shanxi Province(20210009)General Youth Fund project in Shanxi Province(201901D211158)the 1331 Engineering Project of Shanxi Province,Scientific and Technological Innovation Programs of Higher Education Institutions in Shanxi Province(2019L0114)Key Projects of Health Commission of Shanxi Province(No.2020XM18)the Key Research and Development Project in Shanxi Province(202003D31011/GZ).
文摘Foot-and-mouth disease(FMD)is an acute,highly infectious and pathogenic animal disease.In recent years,with the rapid development of the swine breeding industry in China,pig farms have shown a trend of larger-scale development.Large-scale pig farms employ standardized management,a high level of automation,and a strict_system.However,these farms have a large trading volume,and increased transmission intensity of FMD is noted inside the farm.At present,the main control measure against FMD is pig vaccination.However,a standard for immunization procedures is not available,and currently adopted immunization procedures have not been effectively and systematically evaluated.Taking a typical large-scale pig farm in China as the research subject and considering the breeding pattern,piggery structure,age structure and immunization procedures,an individual-based state probability model is established to evaluate the effectiveness of the immune procedure.Based on numerical simulation,it is concluded that the optimal immunization program involves primary immunization at 40 days of age and secondary immunization at 80 days of age for commercial pigs.Breeding boars and breeding sows are immunized 4 times a year,and reserve pigs are immunized at 169 and 259 days of age.According to the theoretical analysis,the average control reproduction number of individuals under the optimal immunization procedure in the farm is 0.4927.In the absence of immunization,the average is 1.7498,indicating that the epidemic cannot be controlled without immunization procedures.
基金supported by the Qatar National Research Fund(NPRP5-364-2-142NPRP7-1040-2-293)
文摘Monitoring high-dimensional multistage processes becomes crucial to ensure the quality of the final product in modern industry environments. Few statistical process monitoring(SPC) approaches for monitoring and controlling quality in highdimensional multistage processes are studied. We propose a deviance residual-based multivariate exponentially weighted moving average(MEWMA) control chart with a variable selection procedure. We demonstrate that it outperforms the existing multivariate SPC charts in terms of out-of-control average run length(ARL) for the detection of process mean shift.
文摘In the developing course of the information system, the modeling method of information system and model expressing problem are very important. This paper through discussing the facing object of Petri network, expatiates the basic problem of how to set up the business procedure model on the basis of Petri network, and shows the expressing and storing methods of the model in computer way.
文摘The Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 5 advocated the reduction of maternal mortality rates significantly by 2015, however, maternal mortality rates continue to rise. Here, we modelled maternal mortality data for the years 2000 to 2013 obtained from a public hospital in Kumasi, Ghana. We applied the Box-Jenkins approach of univariate form of time series autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA). The output revealed that the ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model was most appropriate to model and predict monthly maternal cases with Akaike information criterion (AIC) value of 117.02 and Bayesian information criterion (BIC) value of 125.91. The Shapiro-Wilk normality test confirmed normality of the residuals. The Ljung-Box test on the residuals showed no serial correlation. The model was then validated based on the measures of accuracy. The results showed that the maternal mortality cases for the years 2000 to 2011 are high: minimum 3, median 11, mean 12 and maximum cases of 26 per month. The predicted mortality cases were 10 to 11 monthly for years 2012 to 2013, indicating that the target of MDG 5 could not be achieved by 2015. Fresh and perceptive strategies are urgently needed to arrest the unacceptably high death rates.
