A joint statistical model of wind speed and wind shear is critical for height-dependent wind resource characteristic analysis.However,given the different atmospheric conditions that may be involved,the statistical dis...A joint statistical model of wind speed and wind shear is critical for height-dependent wind resource characteristic analysis.However,given the different atmospheric conditions that may be involved,the statistical distribution of the two variables may show multimodal characteristics.In this work,a finite mixture bivariate statistical model was designed to describe the statistical properties,which is composed of several components,each with a Weibull distribution and a normal distribution for wind speed and wind shear,respectively,with a Gaussian copula to describe the dependency structure between the two variables.To confirm the developed model,reanalysis data from six positions in the coastal sea areas of China were used.Our results disclosed that the developed joint statistical model can accurately capture the different multimodal structures presented in all the bivariate samples under mixed atmospheric conditions,giving acceptable predictions of the joint probability distributions.Proper consideration of wind shear coefficient variation is crucial in estimating height-dependent wind resource characteristics.Importantly,unlike traditional methods that are limited to specific hub heights,the model developed here can estimate wind energy potential across different hub heights,enhancing the economic viability assessment of wind power projects.展开更多
Background: The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is recognized as an index of measurements reproducibility. We derive the maximum likelihood estimators of SNR and discuss confidence interval construction on the difference ...Background: The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is recognized as an index of measurements reproducibility. We derive the maximum likelihood estimators of SNR and discuss confidence interval construction on the difference between two correlated SNRs when the readings are from bivariate normal and bivariate lognormal distribution. We use the Pearsons system of curves to approximate the difference between the two estimates and use the bootstrap methods to validate the approximate distributions of the statistic of interest. Methods: The paper uses the delta method to find the first four central moments, and hence the skewness and kurtosis which are important in the determination of the parameters of the Pearsons distribution. Results: The approach is illustrated in two examples;one from veterinary microbiology and food safety data and the other on data from clinical medicine. We derived the four central moments of the target statistics, together with the bootstrap method to evaluate the parameters of Pearsons distribution. The fitted Pearsons curves of Types I and II were recommended based on the available data. The R-codes are also provided to be readily used by the readers.展开更多
Starting with the Aalen （1989） version of Cox （1972） ＇regression model＇ we show the method for construction of ＂any＂ joint survival function given marginal survival functions. Basically, however, we restrict o...Starting with the Aalen （1989） version of Cox （1972） ＇regression model＇ we show the method for construction of ＂any＂ joint survival function given marginal survival functions. Basically, however, we restrict ourselves to model positive stochastic dependences only with the general assumption that the underlying two marginal random variables are centered on the set of nonnegative real values. With only these assumptions we obtain nice general characterization of bivariate probability distributions that may play similar role as the copula methodology. Examples of reliability and biomedical applications are given.展开更多
This paper analyses the local behavior of the simple off-diagonal bivariate quadratic function approximation to a bivariate function which has a given power series expansion about the origin.It is shown that the simpl...This paper analyses the local behavior of the simple off-diagonal bivariate quadratic function approximation to a bivariate function which has a given power series expansion about the origin.It is shown that the simple off-diagonal bivariate quadratic Hermite-Padé form always defines a bivariate quadratic function and that this function is analytic in a neighbourhood of the origin.Numerical examples compare the obtained results with the approximation power of diagonal Chisholm approximant and Taylor polynomial approximant.展开更多
This paper analysis the local behavior of the bivariate quadratic function approximation to a bivariate function which has a given power series expansion about the origin. It is shown that the bivariate quadratic Herm...This paper analysis the local behavior of the bivariate quadratic function approximation to a bivariate function which has a given power series expansion about the origin. It is shown that the bivariate quadratic Hermite-Padé form always defines a bivariate quadratic function and that this function is analytic in a neighborhood of the origin.展开更多
Extending the results of [4] in the univariate case, in this paper we prove that the bivariate interpolation polynomials of Hermite-Fejér based on the Chebyshev nodes of the first kind, those of Lagrange based o...Extending the results of [4] in the univariate case, in this paper we prove that the bivariate interpolation polynomials of Hermite-Fejér based on the Chebyshev nodes of the first kind, those of Lagrange based on the Chebyshev nodes of second kind and ±1, and those of bivariate Shepard operators, have the property of partial preservation of global smoothness, with respect to various bivariate moduli of continuity.展开更多
There are several examples of spaces of univariate functions for which we have a characterization of all sets of knots which are poised for the interpolation problem. For the standard spaces of univariate polynomials,...There are several examples of spaces of univariate functions for which we have a characterization of all sets of knots which are poised for the interpolation problem. For the standard spaces of univariate polynomials, or spline functions the mentioned results are well-known. In contrast with this, there are no such results in the bivariate case. As an exception, one may consider only the Pascal classic theorem, in the interpolation theory interpretation. In this paper, we consider a space of bivariate piecewise linear functions, for which we can readily find out whether the given node set is poised or not. The main tool we use for this purpose is the reduction by a basic subproblem, introduced in this paper.展开更多
In this study, a novel approach of the landslide numerical risk factor(LNRF) bivariate model was used in ensemble with linear multivariate regression(LMR) and boosted regression tree(BRT) models, coupled with radar re...In this study, a novel approach of the landslide numerical risk factor(LNRF) bivariate model was used in ensemble with linear multivariate regression(LMR) and boosted regression tree(BRT) models, coupled with radar remote sensing data and geographic information system(GIS), for landslide susceptibility mapping(LSM) in the Gorganroud watershed, Iran. Fifteen topographic, hydrological, geological and environmental conditioning factors and a landslide inventory(70%, or 298 landslides) were used in mapping. Phased array-type L-band synthetic aperture radar data were used to extract topographic parameters. Coefficients of tolerance and variance inflation factor were used to determine the coherence among conditioning factors. Data for the landslide inventory map were obtained from various resources, such as Iranian Landslide Working Party(ILWP), Forestry, Rangeland and Watershed Organisation(FRWO), extensive field surveys, interpretation of aerial photos and satellite images, and radar data. Of the total data, 30% were used to validate LSMs, using area under the curve(AUC), frequency ratio(FR) and seed cell area index(SCAI).Normalised difference vegetation index, land use/land cover and slope degree in BRT model elevation, rainfall and distance from stream were found to be important factors and were given the highest weightage in modelling. Validation results using AUC showed that the ensemble LNRF-BRT and LNRFLMR models(AUC = 0.912(91.2%) and 0.907(90.7%), respectively) had high predictive accuracy than the LNRF model alone(AUC = 0.855(85.5%)). The FR and SCAI analyses showed that all models divided the parameter classes with high precision. Overall, our novel approach of combining multivariate and machine learning methods with bivariate models, radar remote sensing data and GIS proved to be a powerful tool for landslide susceptibility mapping.展开更多
An adaptive method of residual life estimation for deteriorated products with two performance characteristics (PCs) was proposed, which was sharply different from existing work that only utilized one-dimensional degra...An adaptive method of residual life estimation for deteriorated products with two performance characteristics (PCs) was proposed, which was sharply different from existing work that only utilized one-dimensional degradation data. Once new degradation information was available, the residual life of the product being monitored could be estimated in an adaptive manner. Here, it was assumed that the degradation of each PC over time was governed by a Wiener degradation process and the dependency between them was characterized by the Frank copula function. A bivariate Wiener process model with measurement errors was used to model the degradation measurements. A two-stage method and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method were combined to estimate the unknown parameters in sequence. Results from a numerical example about fatigue cracks show that the proposed method is valid as the relative error is small.展开更多
Both the Newton interpolating polynomials and the Thiele-type interpolating continued fractions based on inverse differences are used to construct a kind of bivariate blending rational interpolants and an error estima...Both the Newton interpolating polynomials and the Thiele-type interpolating continued fractions based on inverse differences are used to construct a kind of bivariate blending rational interpolants and an error estimation is given.展开更多
Reliability and remaining useful life(RUL)estimation for a satellite rechargeable lithium battery(RLB)are significant for prognostic and health management(PHM).A novel Bayesian framework is proposed to do reliability ...Reliability and remaining useful life(RUL)estimation for a satellite rechargeable lithium battery(RLB)are significant for prognostic and health management(PHM).A novel Bayesian framework is proposed to do reliability analysis by synthesizing multisource data,including bivariate degradation data and lifetime data.Bivariate degradation means that there are two degraded performance characteristics leading to the failure of the system.First,linear Wiener process and Frank Copula function are used to model the dependent degradation processes of the RLB's temperature and discharge voltage.Next,the Bayesian method,in combination with Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)simulations,is provided to integrate limited bivariate degradation data with other congeneric RLBs'lifetime data.Then reliability evaluation and RUL prediction are carried out for PHM.A simulation study demonstrates that due to the data fusion,parameter estimations and predicted RUL obtained from our model are more precise than models only using degradation data or ignoring the dependency of different degradation processes.Finally,a practical case study of a satellite RLB verifies the usability of the model.展开更多
Inference are considered for the dependence competing risks model by using the Marshal-Olkin bivariate exponential distribution. Under generalized progressively hybrid censoring with partially observed failure causes,...Inference are considered for the dependence competing risks model by using the Marshal-Olkin bivariate exponential distribution. Under generalized progressively hybrid censoring with partially observed failure causes, the maximum likelihood estimators are established, and the approximate confidence intervals are also constructed via the observed Fisher information matrix.Moreover, Bayes estimates and highest probability density credible intervals are presented and the importance sampling technique is used to compute corresponding results. Finally, the numerical analysis is proposed for illustration.展开更多
In this paper, the dimension of the spaces of bivariate spline with degree less that 2r and smoothness order r on the Morgan-Scott triangulation is considered. The concept of the instability degree in the dimension of...In this paper, the dimension of the spaces of bivariate spline with degree less that 2r and smoothness order r on the Morgan-Scott triangulation is considered. The concept of the instability degree in the dimension of spaces of bivariate spline is presented. The results in the paper make us conjecture the instability degree in the dimension of spaces of bivariate spline is infinity.展开更多
Fiber optical gyroscope(FOG)is a highly reliable navigation element,and the degradation trajectories of its two accuracy indexes are monotonic and non-monotonic respectively.In this paper,a flexible accelerated degrad...Fiber optical gyroscope(FOG)is a highly reliable navigation element,and the degradation trajectories of its two accuracy indexes are monotonic and non-monotonic respectively.In this paper,a flexible accelerated degradation testing(ADT)model is used for analyzing the bivariate dependent degradation process of FOG.The time-varying copulas are employed to consider the dynamic dependency structure between two marginal degradation processes as the Wiener process and the inverse Gaussian process.The statistical inference is implemented by utilizing an inference function for the margins(IFM)approach.It is demonstrated that the proposed method is powerful in modeling the joint distribution with various margins.展开更多
In the paper, firstly, based on new non-tensor-product-typed partially inverse divided differences algorithms in a recursive form, scattered data interpolating schemes are constructed via bivariate continued fractions...In the paper, firstly, based on new non-tensor-product-typed partially inverse divided differences algorithms in a recursive form, scattered data interpolating schemes are constructed via bivariate continued fractions with odd and even nodes, respectively. And equivalent identities are also obtained between interpolated functions and bivariate continued fractions. Secondly, by means of three-term recurrence relations for continued fractions, the characterization theorem is presented to study on the degrees of the numerators and denominators of the interpolating continued fractions. Thirdly, some numerical examples show it feasible for the novel recursive schemes. Meanwhile, compared with the degrees of the numera- tors and denominators of bivariate Thiele-typed interpolating continued fractions, those of the new bivariate interpolating continued fractions are much low, respectively, due to the reduc- tion of redundant interpolating nodes. Finally, the operation count for the rational function interpolation is smaller than that for radial basis function interpolation.展开更多
A new method for the construction of bivariate matrix valued rational interpolants (BGIRI) on a rectangular grid is presented in [6]. The rational interpolants are of Thiele-type continued fraction form with scalar de...A new method for the construction of bivariate matrix valued rational interpolants (BGIRI) on a rectangular grid is presented in [6]. The rational interpolants are of Thiele-type continued fraction form with scalar denominator. The generalized inverse introduced by [3]is gen-eralized to rectangular matrix case in this paper. An exact error formula for interpolation is ob-tained, which is an extension in matrix form of bivariate scalar and vector valued rational interpola-tion discussed by Siemaszko[l2] and by Gu Chuangqing [7] respectively. By defining row and col-umn-transformation in the sense of the partial inverted differences for matrices, two type matrix algorithms are established to construct corresponding two different BGIRI, which hold for the vec-tor case and the scalar case.展开更多
Copula-based bivariate frequency analysis can be used to investigate the changes in flood characteristics in the Huai River Basin that could be caused by climate change. The univariate distributions of historical floo...Copula-based bivariate frequency analysis can be used to investigate the changes in flood characteristics in the Huai River Basin that could be caused by climate change. The univariate distributions of historical flood peak, maximum 3-day and 7-day volumes in 1961-2000 and future values in 2061-2100 projected from two GCMs（CSIRO-MK3.5 and CCCma-CGCM3.1） under A2, A1 B and B1 emission scenarios are analyzed and compared. Then, bivariate distributions of peaks and volumes are constructed based on the copula method and possible changes in joint return periods are characterized. Results indicate that the Clayton copula is more appropriate for historical and CCCma-CGCM3.1 simulating flood variables, while that of Frank and Gumbel are better fitted to CSIRO-MK3.5 simulations. The variations of univariate and bivariate return periods reveal that flood characteristics may be more sensitive to different GCMs than different emission scenarios. Between the two GCMs, CSIRO-MK3.5 evidently predicts much more severe flood conditions in future, especially under B1 scenario, whereas CCCma-CGCM3.1 generally suggests contrary changing signals. This study corroborates that copulas can serve as a viable and flexible tool to connect univariate marginal distributions of flood variables and quantify the associated risks, which may provide useful information for risk-based flood control.展开更多
基金supported by the Key R&D Program of Shandong Province,China(No.2021ZLGX04)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52171284)。
文摘A joint statistical model of wind speed and wind shear is critical for height-dependent wind resource characteristic analysis.However,given the different atmospheric conditions that may be involved,the statistical distribution of the two variables may show multimodal characteristics.In this work,a finite mixture bivariate statistical model was designed to describe the statistical properties,which is composed of several components,each with a Weibull distribution and a normal distribution for wind speed and wind shear,respectively,with a Gaussian copula to describe the dependency structure between the two variables.To confirm the developed model,reanalysis data from six positions in the coastal sea areas of China were used.Our results disclosed that the developed joint statistical model can accurately capture the different multimodal structures presented in all the bivariate samples under mixed atmospheric conditions,giving acceptable predictions of the joint probability distributions.Proper consideration of wind shear coefficient variation is crucial in estimating height-dependent wind resource characteristics.Importantly,unlike traditional methods that are limited to specific hub heights,the model developed here can estimate wind energy potential across different hub heights,enhancing the economic viability assessment of wind power projects.
文摘Background: The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is recognized as an index of measurements reproducibility. We derive the maximum likelihood estimators of SNR and discuss confidence interval construction on the difference between two correlated SNRs when the readings are from bivariate normal and bivariate lognormal distribution. We use the Pearsons system of curves to approximate the difference between the two estimates and use the bootstrap methods to validate the approximate distributions of the statistic of interest. Methods: The paper uses the delta method to find the first four central moments, and hence the skewness and kurtosis which are important in the determination of the parameters of the Pearsons distribution. Results: The approach is illustrated in two examples;one from veterinary microbiology and food safety data and the other on data from clinical medicine. We derived the four central moments of the target statistics, together with the bootstrap method to evaluate the parameters of Pearsons distribution. The fitted Pearsons curves of Types I and II were recommended based on the available data. The R-codes are also provided to be readily used by the readers.
文摘Starting with the Aalen （1989） version of Cox （1972） ＇regression model＇ we show the method for construction of ＂any＂ joint survival function given marginal survival functions. Basically, however, we restrict ourselves to model positive stochastic dependences only with the general assumption that the underlying two marginal random variables are centered on the set of nonnegative real values. With only these assumptions we obtain nice general characterization of bivariate probability distributions that may play similar role as the copula methodology. Examples of reliability and biomedical applications are given.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China( 699730 1 0,1 0 2 71 0 2 2 )
文摘This paper analyses the local behavior of the simple off-diagonal bivariate quadratic function approximation to a bivariate function which has a given power series expansion about the origin.It is shown that the simple off-diagonal bivariate quadratic Hermite-Padé form always defines a bivariate quadratic function and that this function is analytic in a neighbourhood of the origin.Numerical examples compare the obtained results with the approximation power of diagonal Chisholm approximant and Taylor polynomial approximant.
基金Supported by the NNSF of China(10271022, 60373093)Supported by the Science and Technology Development Foundation of Education Department of Liaoning Province(2004C060)
文摘This paper analysis the local behavior of the bivariate quadratic function approximation to a bivariate function which has a given power series expansion about the origin. It is shown that the bivariate quadratic Hermite-Padé form always defines a bivariate quadratic function and that this function is analytic in a neighborhood of the origin.
文摘Extending the results of [4] in the univariate case, in this paper we prove that the bivariate interpolation polynomials of Hermite-Fejér based on the Chebyshev nodes of the first kind, those of Lagrange based on the Chebyshev nodes of second kind and ±1, and those of bivariate Shepard operators, have the property of partial preservation of global smoothness, with respect to various bivariate moduli of continuity.
文摘There are several examples of spaces of univariate functions for which we have a characterization of all sets of knots which are poised for the interpolation problem. For the standard spaces of univariate polynomials, or spline functions the mentioned results are well-known. In contrast with this, there are no such results in the bivariate case. As an exception, one may consider only the Pascal classic theorem, in the interpolation theory interpretation. In this paper, we consider a space of bivariate piecewise linear functions, for which we can readily find out whether the given node set is poised or not. The main tool we use for this purpose is the reduction by a basic subproblem, introduced in this paper.
基金supported by the Centre for Advanced Modelling and Geospatial Information Systems(CAMGIS),UTS under grant numbers 321740.2232335,323930,and 321740.2232357
文摘In this study, a novel approach of the landslide numerical risk factor(LNRF) bivariate model was used in ensemble with linear multivariate regression(LMR) and boosted regression tree(BRT) models, coupled with radar remote sensing data and geographic information system(GIS), for landslide susceptibility mapping(LSM) in the Gorganroud watershed, Iran. Fifteen topographic, hydrological, geological and environmental conditioning factors and a landslide inventory(70%, or 298 landslides) were used in mapping. Phased array-type L-band synthetic aperture radar data were used to extract topographic parameters. Coefficients of tolerance and variance inflation factor were used to determine the coherence among conditioning factors. Data for the landslide inventory map were obtained from various resources, such as Iranian Landslide Working Party(ILWP), Forestry, Rangeland and Watershed Organisation(FRWO), extensive field surveys, interpretation of aerial photos and satellite images, and radar data. Of the total data, 30% were used to validate LSMs, using area under the curve(AUC), frequency ratio(FR) and seed cell area index(SCAI).Normalised difference vegetation index, land use/land cover and slope degree in BRT model elevation, rainfall and distance from stream were found to be important factors and were given the highest weightage in modelling. Validation results using AUC showed that the ensemble LNRF-BRT and LNRFLMR models(AUC = 0.912(91.2%) and 0.907(90.7%), respectively) had high predictive accuracy than the LNRF model alone(AUC = 0.855(85.5%)). The FR and SCAI analyses showed that all models divided the parameter classes with high precision. Overall, our novel approach of combining multivariate and machine learning methods with bivariate models, radar remote sensing data and GIS proved to be a powerful tool for landslide susceptibility mapping.
基金Project(60904002)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘An adaptive method of residual life estimation for deteriorated products with two performance characteristics (PCs) was proposed, which was sharply different from existing work that only utilized one-dimensional degradation data. Once new degradation information was available, the residual life of the product being monitored could be estimated in an adaptive manner. Here, it was assumed that the degradation of each PC over time was governed by a Wiener degradation process and the dependency between them was characterized by the Frank copula function. A bivariate Wiener process model with measurement errors was used to model the degradation measurements. A two-stage method and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method were combined to estimate the unknown parameters in sequence. Results from a numerical example about fatigue cracks show that the proposed method is valid as the relative error is small.
文摘Both the Newton interpolating polynomials and the Thiele-type interpolating continued fractions based on inverse differences are used to construct a kind of bivariate blending rational interpolants and an error estimation is given.
基金Project(71371182) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Reliability and remaining useful life(RUL)estimation for a satellite rechargeable lithium battery(RLB)are significant for prognostic and health management(PHM).A novel Bayesian framework is proposed to do reliability analysis by synthesizing multisource data,including bivariate degradation data and lifetime data.Bivariate degradation means that there are two degraded performance characteristics leading to the failure of the system.First,linear Wiener process and Frank Copula function are used to model the dependent degradation processes of the RLB's temperature and discharge voltage.Next,the Bayesian method,in combination with Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)simulations,is provided to integrate limited bivariate degradation data with other congeneric RLBs'lifetime data.Then reliability evaluation and RUL prediction are carried out for PHM.A simulation study demonstrates that due to the data fusion,parameter estimations and predicted RUL obtained from our model are more precise than models only using degradation data or ignoring the dependency of different degradation processes.Finally,a practical case study of a satellite RLB verifies the usability of the model.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11501433)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(JB180711)
文摘Inference are considered for the dependence competing risks model by using the Marshal-Olkin bivariate exponential distribution. Under generalized progressively hybrid censoring with partially observed failure causes, the maximum likelihood estimators are established, and the approximate confidence intervals are also constructed via the observed Fisher information matrix.Moreover, Bayes estimates and highest probability density credible intervals are presented and the importance sampling technique is used to compute corresponding results. Finally, the numerical analysis is proposed for illustration.
基金Project Supported by the national Natural Science Foundation of China(No.19871010,No.69973010).
文摘In this paper, the dimension of the spaces of bivariate spline with degree less that 2r and smoothness order r on the Morgan-Scott triangulation is considered. The concept of the instability degree in the dimension of spaces of bivariate spline is presented. The results in the paper make us conjecture the instability degree in the dimension of spaces of bivariate spline is infinity.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2018YFB0104504).
文摘Fiber optical gyroscope(FOG)is a highly reliable navigation element,and the degradation trajectories of its two accuracy indexes are monotonic and non-monotonic respectively.In this paper,a flexible accelerated degradation testing(ADT)model is used for analyzing the bivariate dependent degradation process of FOG.The time-varying copulas are employed to consider the dynamic dependency structure between two marginal degradation processes as the Wiener process and the inverse Gaussian process.The statistical inference is implemented by utilizing an inference function for the margins(IFM)approach.It is demonstrated that the proposed method is powerful in modeling the joint distribution with various margins.
基金Supported by the Special Funds Tianyuan for the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11426086)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.2016B08714)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province for the Youth(Grant No.BK20160853)
文摘In the paper, firstly, based on new non-tensor-product-typed partially inverse divided differences algorithms in a recursive form, scattered data interpolating schemes are constructed via bivariate continued fractions with odd and even nodes, respectively. And equivalent identities are also obtained between interpolated functions and bivariate continued fractions. Secondly, by means of three-term recurrence relations for continued fractions, the characterization theorem is presented to study on the degrees of the numerators and denominators of the interpolating continued fractions. Thirdly, some numerical examples show it feasible for the novel recursive schemes. Meanwhile, compared with the degrees of the numera- tors and denominators of bivariate Thiele-typed interpolating continued fractions, those of the new bivariate interpolating continued fractions are much low, respectively, due to the reduc- tion of redundant interpolating nodes. Finally, the operation count for the rational function interpolation is smaller than that for radial basis function interpolation.
文摘A new method for the construction of bivariate matrix valued rational interpolants (BGIRI) on a rectangular grid is presented in [6]. The rational interpolants are of Thiele-type continued fraction form with scalar denominator. The generalized inverse introduced by [3]is gen-eralized to rectangular matrix case in this paper. An exact error formula for interpolation is ob-tained, which is an extension in matrix form of bivariate scalar and vector valued rational interpola-tion discussed by Siemaszko[l2] and by Gu Chuangqing [7] respectively. By defining row and col-umn-transformation in the sense of the partial inverted differences for matrices, two type matrix algorithms are established to construct corresponding two different BGIRI, which hold for the vec-tor case and the scalar case.
基金jointly supported by the General Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51479140)the Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51239004)+1 种基金the Meteorological Research Open Foundation of Huai River Basin (No. HRM201403)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41401612)
文摘Copula-based bivariate frequency analysis can be used to investigate the changes in flood characteristics in the Huai River Basin that could be caused by climate change. The univariate distributions of historical flood peak, maximum 3-day and 7-day volumes in 1961-2000 and future values in 2061-2100 projected from two GCMs（CSIRO-MK3.5 and CCCma-CGCM3.1） under A2, A1 B and B1 emission scenarios are analyzed and compared. Then, bivariate distributions of peaks and volumes are constructed based on the copula method and possible changes in joint return periods are characterized. Results indicate that the Clayton copula is more appropriate for historical and CCCma-CGCM3.1 simulating flood variables, while that of Frank and Gumbel are better fitted to CSIRO-MK3.5 simulations. The variations of univariate and bivariate return periods reveal that flood characteristics may be more sensitive to different GCMs than different emission scenarios. Between the two GCMs, CSIRO-MK3.5 evidently predicts much more severe flood conditions in future, especially under B1 scenario, whereas CCCma-CGCM3.1 generally suggests contrary changing signals. This study corroborates that copulas can serve as a viable and flexible tool to connect univariate marginal distributions of flood variables and quantify the associated risks, which may provide useful information for risk-based flood control.
