Photovoltaic(PV)systems are widely spread across MV and LV distribution systems and the penetration of PV generation is solidly growing.Because of the uncertain nature of the solar energy resource,PV power forecasting...Photovoltaic(PV)systems are widely spread across MV and LV distribution systems and the penetration of PV generation is solidly growing.Because of the uncertain nature of the solar energy resource,PV power forecasting models are crucial in any energy management system for smart distribution networks.Although point forecasts can suit many scopes,probabilistic forecasts add further flexibility to an energy management system and are recommended to enable a wider range of decision making and optimization strategies.This paper proposes methodology towards probabilistic PV power forecasting based on a Bayesian bootstrap quantile regression model,in which a Bayesian bootstrap is applied to estimate the parameters of a quantile regression model.A novel procedure is presented to optimize the extraction of the predictive quantiles from the bootstrapped estimation of the related coefficients,raising the predictive ability of the final forecasts.Numerical experiments based on actual data quantify an enhancement of the performance of up to 2.2%when compared to relevant benchmarks.展开更多
基金supported by the Swiss Federal Office of Energy(SFOE)and by the Italian Ministry of Education,University and Research(MIUR),through the ERA-NET Smart Energy Systems RegSys joint call 2018 project“DiGRiFlex-Real time Distribution GRid control and Flexibility provision under uncertainties.”。
文摘Photovoltaic(PV)systems are widely spread across MV and LV distribution systems and the penetration of PV generation is solidly growing.Because of the uncertain nature of the solar energy resource,PV power forecasting models are crucial in any energy management system for smart distribution networks.Although point forecasts can suit many scopes,probabilistic forecasts add further flexibility to an energy management system and are recommended to enable a wider range of decision making and optimization strategies.This paper proposes methodology towards probabilistic PV power forecasting based on a Bayesian bootstrap quantile regression model,in which a Bayesian bootstrap is applied to estimate the parameters of a quantile regression model.A novel procedure is presented to optimize the extraction of the predictive quantiles from the bootstrapped estimation of the related coefficients,raising the predictive ability of the final forecasts.Numerical experiments based on actual data quantify an enhancement of the performance of up to 2.2%when compared to relevant benchmarks.
