The battlefield situation changes rapidly because underwater targets'are concealment and the sea environment is uncertain.So,a great number of situation information greatly increase,which need to be dealt with in ...The battlefield situation changes rapidly because underwater targets'are concealment and the sea environment is uncertain.So,a great number of situation information greatly increase,which need to be dealt with in the course of scouting underwater targets.Situation assessment in sea battlefield with a lot of uncertain information is studied,and a new situation assessment method of scouting underwater targets with fixed-wing patrol aircraft is proposed based on the cloud Bayesian network,which overcomes the deficiency of the single cloud model in reasoning ability and the defect of Bayesian network in knowledge representation.Moreover,in the method,the cloud model knowledge deal with the input data of Bayesian network reasoning,and the advantages in knowledge representation of cloud theory and reasoning of Bayesian network are applied;also,the fuzziness and stochasticity of cloud theory in knowledge expression,the reasoning ability of Bayesian network,are combined.Then,the situation assessment model of scouting underwater targets with fixed-wing patrol aircraft is established.Hence,the directed acyclic graph of Bayesian network structure is constructed and the assessment index is determined.Next,the cloud model is used to deal with Bayesian network,and the discrete Bayesian network is obtained.Moreover,after CPT of each node and the transformation between certainty degree and probability are accomplished;the final situation level is obtained through a probability synthesis formula.Therefore,the target type and the operational intention of the other side are deduced to form the battlefield situation.Finally,simulations are carried out,and the rationality and validity of the proposed method are testified by simulation results.By this method,the battlefield situation can be gained.And this method has a wider application range,especially for large sample data processing,and it has better practicability.展开更多
In the past fifteen years, the attention of ship safety treatment as an objective rather than a constraint has started to sweep through the whole maritime industry. The risk-based ship design （RBD） methodology, advo...In the past fifteen years, the attention of ship safety treatment as an objective rather than a constraint has started to sweep through the whole maritime industry. The risk-based ship design （RBD） methodology, advocating systematic integration of risk assessment within the conventional design process has started to takeoff. Despite this wide recognition and increasing popularity, important factors that could potentially undermine the quality of the results come from both quantitative and qualitative aspects during the risk assessment process. This paper details a promising solution by developing a formalized methodology for risk assessment through effective storing and processing of historical data combined with data generated through first-principle approaches. This method should help to generate appropriate risk models in the selected platform （Bayesian networks） which can be employed for decision making at design stare.展开更多
To solve the problem of information fusion from multiple sources in innovation alliances, an information fusion model based on the Bayesian network is presented. The multi-source information fusion process of innovati...To solve the problem of information fusion from multiple sources in innovation alliances, an information fusion model based on the Bayesian network is presented. The multi-source information fusion process of innovation alliances was classified into three layers, namely, the information perception layer, the feature clustering layer,and the decision fusion layer. The agencies in the alliance were defined as sensors through which information is perceived and obtained, and the features were clustered. Finally, various types of information were fused by the innovation alliance based on the fusion algorithm to achieve complete and comprehensive information. The model was applied to a study on economic information prediction, where the accuracy of the fusion results was higher than that from a single source and the errors obtained were also smaller with the MPE less than 3%, which demonstrates the proposed fusion method is more effective and reasonable. This study provides a reasonable basis for decision-making of innovation alliances.展开更多
The paper introduces the Endsley＇ s situation model into network security to describe the network security situation, and improves Endsley＇s data processing to suit network alerts. The proposed model contains the in...The paper introduces the Endsley＇ s situation model into network security to describe the network security situation, and improves Endsley＇s data processing to suit network alerts. The proposed model contains the information of incident frequency, incident time and incident space. The HoneyNet dataset is selected to evaluate the proposed model in the evaluation. The paper proposes three definitions to depict and predigest the whole situation extraction in detail, and a fusion component to reduce the influence of alert redundancy on the total security situation. The less complex extraction makes the situation analysis more efficient, and the fine-grained model makes the analysis have a better expansibility. Finally, the situational variation curves are simulated, and the evaluation results prove the situation model applicable and efficient.展开更多
The resource optimization plays an important role in an asynchronous Phased Array Radar Network(PARN)tracking multiple targets with Measurement Origin Uncertainty(MOU),i.e.,considering the false alarms and missed dete...The resource optimization plays an important role in an asynchronous Phased Array Radar Network(PARN)tracking multiple targets with Measurement Origin Uncertainty(MOU),i.e.,considering the false alarms and missed detections.A Joint Dwell Time Allocation and Detection Threshold Optimization(JDTADTO)strategy is proposed for resource saving in this case.The Predicted Conditional Cramér-Rao Lower Bound(PC-CRLB)with Bayesian Detector and Amplitude Information(BD-AI)is derived and adopted as the tracking performance metric.The optimization model is formulated as minimizing the difference between the PC-CRLBs and the tracking precision thresholds under the constraints of upper and lower bounds of dwell time and false alarm ratio.It is shown that the objective function is nonconvex due to the Information Reduction Factor(IRF)brought by the MOU.A cyclic minimizer-based solution is proposed for problem solving.Simulation results confirm the flexibility and robustness of the JDTADTO strategy in both sufficient and insufficient resource scenarios.The results also reveal the effectiveness of the proposed strategy compared with the strategies adopting the BD without detection threshold optimization and amplitude information.展开更多
Decommissioning of offshore facilities involve changing risk profiles at different decommissioning phases.Bayesian Belief Networks(BBN)are used as part of the proposed risk assessment method to capture the multiple in...Decommissioning of offshore facilities involve changing risk profiles at different decommissioning phases.Bayesian Belief Networks(BBN)are used as part of the proposed risk assessment method to capture the multiple interactions of a decommissioning activity.The BBN is structured from the data learning of an accident database and a modification of the BBN nodes to incorporate human reliability and barrier performance modelling.The analysis covers one case study of one area of decommissioning operations by extrapolating well workover data to well plugging and abandonment.Initial analysis from well workover data,of a 5-node BBN provided insights on two different levels of severity of an accident,the’Accident’and’Incident’level,and on its respective profiles of the initiating events and the investigation-reported human causes.The initial results demonstrate that the data learnt from the database can be used to structure the BBN,give insights on how human reliability pertaining to well activities can be modelled,and that the relative frequencies from the count analysis can act as initial data input for the proposed nodes.It is also proposed that the integrated treatment of various sources of information(database and expert judgement)through a BBN model can support the risk assessment of a dynamic situation such as offshore decommissioning.展开更多
基金Natural Science Foundation of Shangdong,Grant/Award Number:ZR2019MF065.
文摘The battlefield situation changes rapidly because underwater targets'are concealment and the sea environment is uncertain.So,a great number of situation information greatly increase,which need to be dealt with in the course of scouting underwater targets.Situation assessment in sea battlefield with a lot of uncertain information is studied,and a new situation assessment method of scouting underwater targets with fixed-wing patrol aircraft is proposed based on the cloud Bayesian network,which overcomes the deficiency of the single cloud model in reasoning ability and the defect of Bayesian network in knowledge representation.Moreover,in the method,the cloud model knowledge deal with the input data of Bayesian network reasoning,and the advantages in knowledge representation of cloud theory and reasoning of Bayesian network are applied;also,the fuzziness and stochasticity of cloud theory in knowledge expression,the reasoning ability of Bayesian network,are combined.Then,the situation assessment model of scouting underwater targets with fixed-wing patrol aircraft is established.Hence,the directed acyclic graph of Bayesian network structure is constructed and the assessment index is determined.Next,the cloud model is used to deal with Bayesian network,and the discrete Bayesian network is obtained.Moreover,after CPT of each node and the transformation between certainty degree and probability are accomplished;the final situation level is obtained through a probability synthesis formula.Therefore,the target type and the operational intention of the other side are deduced to form the battlefield situation.Finally,simulations are carried out,and the rationality and validity of the proposed method are testified by simulation results.By this method,the battlefield situation can be gained.And this method has a wider application range,especially for large sample data processing,and it has better practicability.
基金the financial support received by the University of Strathclyde in the form of a postgraduate research scholarship for the duration of the second author’s P hD studies
文摘In the past fifteen years, the attention of ship safety treatment as an objective rather than a constraint has started to sweep through the whole maritime industry. The risk-based ship design （RBD） methodology, advocating systematic integration of risk assessment within the conventional design process has started to takeoff. Despite this wide recognition and increasing popularity, important factors that could potentially undermine the quality of the results come from both quantitative and qualitative aspects during the risk assessment process. This paper details a promising solution by developing a formalized methodology for risk assessment through effective storing and processing of historical data combined with data generated through first-principle approaches. This method should help to generate appropriate risk models in the selected platform （Bayesian networks） which can be employed for decision making at design stare.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.71472053,71429001,and91646105)
文摘To solve the problem of information fusion from multiple sources in innovation alliances, an information fusion model based on the Bayesian network is presented. The multi-source information fusion process of innovation alliances was classified into three layers, namely, the information perception layer, the feature clustering layer,and the decision fusion layer. The agencies in the alliance were defined as sensors through which information is perceived and obtained, and the features were clustered. Finally, various types of information were fused by the innovation alliance based on the fusion algorithm to achieve complete and comprehensive information. The model was applied to a study on economic information prediction, where the accuracy of the fusion results was higher than that from a single source and the errors obtained were also smaller with the MPE less than 3%, which demonstrates the proposed fusion method is more effective and reasonable. This study provides a reasonable basis for decision-making of innovation alliances.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China （No. 60605019） and the National High Technology Research and Development Programe of China （No. 2003AA142160）.
文摘The paper introduces the Endsley＇ s situation model into network security to describe the network security situation, and improves Endsley＇s data processing to suit network alerts. The proposed model contains the information of incident frequency, incident time and incident space. The HoneyNet dataset is selected to evaluate the proposed model in the evaluation. The paper proposes three definitions to depict and predigest the whole situation extraction in detail, and a fusion component to reduce the influence of alert redundancy on the total security situation. The less complex extraction makes the situation analysis more efficient, and the fine-grained model makes the analysis have a better expansibility. Finally, the situational variation curves are simulated, and the evaluation results prove the situation model applicable and efficient.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.62001506 and 62071482).
文摘The resource optimization plays an important role in an asynchronous Phased Array Radar Network(PARN)tracking multiple targets with Measurement Origin Uncertainty(MOU),i.e.,considering the false alarms and missed detections.A Joint Dwell Time Allocation and Detection Threshold Optimization(JDTADTO)strategy is proposed for resource saving in this case.The Predicted Conditional Cramér-Rao Lower Bound(PC-CRLB)with Bayesian Detector and Amplitude Information(BD-AI)is derived and adopted as the tracking performance metric.The optimization model is formulated as minimizing the difference between the PC-CRLBs and the tracking precision thresholds under the constraints of upper and lower bounds of dwell time and false alarm ratio.It is shown that the objective function is nonconvex due to the Information Reduction Factor(IRF)brought by the MOU.A cyclic minimizer-based solution is proposed for problem solving.Simulation results confirm the flexibility and robustness of the JDTADTO strategy in both sufficient and insufficient resource scenarios.The results also reveal the effectiveness of the proposed strategy compared with the strategies adopting the BD without detection threshold optimization and amplitude information.
基金The authors would like to acknowledge the support of Lloyd’s Register Singapore,Lloyd’s Register Consulting Energy AB(Sweden),Nanyang Technological University,Singapore Institute of Technology and the Singapore Economic Development Board(EDB)under the Industrial Postgraduate Program in the undertaking of this work(RCA-15/424).
文摘Decommissioning of offshore facilities involve changing risk profiles at different decommissioning phases.Bayesian Belief Networks(BBN)are used as part of the proposed risk assessment method to capture the multiple interactions of a decommissioning activity.The BBN is structured from the data learning of an accident database and a modification of the BBN nodes to incorporate human reliability and barrier performance modelling.The analysis covers one case study of one area of decommissioning operations by extrapolating well workover data to well plugging and abandonment.Initial analysis from well workover data,of a 5-node BBN provided insights on two different levels of severity of an accident,the’Accident’and’Incident’level,and on its respective profiles of the initiating events and the investigation-reported human causes.The initial results demonstrate that the data learnt from the database can be used to structure the BBN,give insights on how human reliability pertaining to well activities can be modelled,and that the relative frequencies from the count analysis can act as initial data input for the proposed nodes.It is also proposed that the integrated treatment of various sources of information(database and expert judgement)through a BBN model can support the risk assessment of a dynamic situation such as offshore decommissioning.
