Reliability and remaining useful life(RUL)estimation for a satellite rechargeable lithium battery(RLB)are significant for prognostic and health management(PHM).A novel Bayesian framework is proposed to do reliability ...Reliability and remaining useful life(RUL)estimation for a satellite rechargeable lithium battery(RLB)are significant for prognostic and health management(PHM).A novel Bayesian framework is proposed to do reliability analysis by synthesizing multisource data,including bivariate degradation data and lifetime data.Bivariate degradation means that there are two degraded performance characteristics leading to the failure of the system.First,linear Wiener process and Frank Copula function are used to model the dependent degradation processes of the RLB's temperature and discharge voltage.Next,the Bayesian method,in combination with Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)simulations,is provided to integrate limited bivariate degradation data with other congeneric RLBs'lifetime data.Then reliability evaluation and RUL prediction are carried out for PHM.A simulation study demonstrates that due to the data fusion,parameter estimations and predicted RUL obtained from our model are more precise than models only using degradation data or ignoring the dependency of different degradation processes.Finally,a practical case study of a satellite RLB verifies the usability of the model.展开更多
The traditional least squares support vector regression（LS-SVR）model,using cross validation to determine the regularization parameter and kernel parameter,is time-consuming.We propose a Bayesian evidence framework t...The traditional least squares support vector regression（LS-SVR）model,using cross validation to determine the regularization parameter and kernel parameter,is time-consuming.We propose a Bayesian evidence framework to infer the LS-SVR model parameters.Three levels Bayesian inferences are used to determine the model parameters,regularization hyper-parameters and tune the nuclear parameters by model comparison.On this basis,we established Bayesian LS-SVR time-series gas forecasting models and provide steps for the algorithm.The gas outburst data of a Hebi 10th mine working face is used to validate the model.The optimal embedding dimension and delay time of the time series were obtained by the smallest differential entropy method.Finally,within a MATLAB7.1 environment,we used actual coal gas data to compare the traditional LS-SVR and the Bayesian LS-SVR with LS-SVMlab1.5 Toolbox simulation.The results show that the Bayesian framework of an LS-SVR significantly improves the speed and accuracy of the forecast.展开更多
Fluid identification and anisotropic parameters characterization are crucial for shale reservoir exploration and development.However,the anisotropic reflection coefficient equation,based on the transverse isotropy wit...Fluid identification and anisotropic parameters characterization are crucial for shale reservoir exploration and development.However,the anisotropic reflection coefficient equation,based on the transverse isotropy with a vertical axis of symmetry(VTI)medium assumption,involves numerous parameters to be inverted.This complexity reduces its stability and impacts the accuracy of seismic amplitude variation with offset(AVO)inversion results.In this study,a novel anisotropic equation that includes the fluid term and Thomsen anisotropic parameters is rewritten,which reduces the equation's dimensionality and increases its stability.Additionally,the traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)inversion algorithm exhibits a high rejection rate for random samples and relies on known parameter distributions such as the Gaussian distribution,limiting the algorithm's convergence and sample randomness.To address these limitations and evaluate the uncertainty of AVO inversion,the IADR-Gibbs algorithm is proposed,which incorporates the Independent Adaptive Delayed Rejection(IADR)algorithm with the Gibbs sampling algorithm.Grounded in Bayesian theory,the new algorithm introduces support points to construct a proposal distribution of non-parametric distribution and reselects the rejected samples according to the Delayed Rejection(DR)strategy.Rejected samples are then added to the support points to update the proposal distribution function adaptively.The equation rewriting method and the IADR-Gibbs algorithm improve the accuracy and robustness of AVO inversion.The effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method are validated through synthetic gather tests and practical data applications.展开更多
In the paper, an iterative method is presented to the optimal control of batch processes. Generally it is very difficult to acquire an accurate mechanistic model for a batch process. Because support vector machine is ...In the paper, an iterative method is presented to the optimal control of batch processes. Generally it is very difficult to acquire an accurate mechanistic model for a batch process. Because support vector machine is powerful for the problems characterized by small samples, nonlinearity, high dimension and local minima, support vector regression models are developed for the optimal control of batch processes where end-point properties are required. The model parameters are selected within the Bayesian evidence framework. Based on the model, an iterative method is used to exploit the repetitive nature of batch processes to determine the optimal operating policy. Numerical simulation shows that the iterative optimal control can improve the process performance through iterations.展开更多
The command and control（C2） is a decision-making process based on human cognition,which contains operational,physical,and human characteristics,so it takes on uncertainty and complexity.As a decision support approac...The command and control（C2） is a decision-making process based on human cognition,which contains operational,physical,and human characteristics,so it takes on uncertainty and complexity.As a decision support approach,Bayesian networks（BNs） provide a framework in which a decision is made by combining the experts＇ knowledge and the specific data.In addition,an expert system represented by human cognitive framework is adopted to express the real-time decision-making process of the decision maker.The combination of the Bayesian decision support and human cognitive framework in the C2 of a specific application field is modeled and executed by colored Petri nets（CPNs）,and the consequences of execution manifest such combination can perfectly present the decision-making process in C2.展开更多
Seismic inversion is a highly ill-posed problem, due to many factors such as the limited seismic frequency bandwidth and inappropriate forward modeling. To obtain a unique solution, some smoothing constraints, e.g., t...Seismic inversion is a highly ill-posed problem, due to many factors such as the limited seismic frequency bandwidth and inappropriate forward modeling. To obtain a unique solution, some smoothing constraints, e.g., the Tikhonov regularization are usually applied. The Tikhonov method can maintain a global smooth solution, but cause a fuzzy structure edge. In this paper we use Huber-Markov random-field edge protection method in the procedure of inverting three parameters, P-velocity, S-velocity and density. The method can avoid blurring the structure edge and resist noise. For the parameter to be inverted, the Huber- Markov random-field constructs a neighborhood system, which further acts as the vertical and lateral constraints. We use a quadratic Huber edge penalty function within the layer to suppress noise and a linear one on the edges to avoid a fuzzy result. The effectiveness of our method is proved by inverting the synthetic data without and with noises. The relationship between the adopted constraints and the inversion results is analyzed as well.展开更多
This study seeks to investigate the variations associated with lane lateral locations and days of the week in the stochastic and dynamic transition of traffic regimes(DTTR).In the proposed analysis,hierarchical regres...This study seeks to investigate the variations associated with lane lateral locations and days of the week in the stochastic and dynamic transition of traffic regimes(DTTR).In the proposed analysis,hierarchical regression models fitted using Bayesian frameworks were used to calibrate the transition probabilities that describe the DTTR.Datasets of two sites on a freeway facility located in Jacksonville,Florida,were selected for the analysis.The traffic speed thresholds to define traffic regimes were estimated using the Gaussian mixture model(GMM).The GMM revealed that two and three regimes were adequate mixture components for estimating the traffic speed distributions for Site 1 and 2 datasets,respectively.The results of hierarchical regression models show that there is considerable evidence that there are heterogeneity characteristics in the DTTR associated with lateral lane locations.In particular,the hierarchical regressions reveal that the breakdown process is more affected by the variations compared to other evaluated transition processes with the estimated intra-class correlation(ICC)of about 73%.The transition from congestion on-set/dissolution(COD)to the congested regime is estimated with the highest ICC of 49.4%in the three-regime model,and the lowest ICC of 1%was observed on the transition from the congested to COD regime.On the other hand,different days of the week are not found to contribute to the variations(the highest ICC was 1.44%)on the DTTR.These findings can be used in developing effective congestion countermeasures,particularly in the application of intelligent transportation systems,such as dynamic lane-management strategies.展开更多
Variation of reservoir physical properties can cause changes in its elastic parameters. However, this is not a simple linear relation. Furthermore, the lack of observations, data overlap, noise interference, and ideal...Variation of reservoir physical properties can cause changes in its elastic parameters. However, this is not a simple linear relation. Furthermore, the lack of observations, data overlap, noise interference, and idealized models increases the uncertainties of the inversion result. Thus, we propose an inversion method that is different from traditional statistical rock physics modeling. First, we use deterministic and stochastic rock physics models considering the uncertainties of elastic parameters obtained by prestack seismic inversion and introduce weighting coefficients to establish a weighted statistical relation between reservoir and elastic parameters. Second, based on the weighted statistical relation, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to generate the random joint distribution space of reservoir and elastic parameters that serves as a sample solution space of an objective function. Finally, we propose a fast solution criterion to maximize the posterior probability density and obtain reservoir parameters. The method has high efficiency and application potential.展开更多
本文以Web of Science核心数据库为检索数据集,以VOSviewer1.6.20和CiteSpace6.2R6可视化分析软件为研究工具,检索了痕迹类物证统计学量化研究相关文献509篇,涉及57个国家、976个机构、267份期刊,从发文量、发文载体、关键词共现、关键...本文以Web of Science核心数据库为检索数据集,以VOSviewer1.6.20和CiteSpace6.2R6可视化分析软件为研究工具,检索了痕迹类物证统计学量化研究相关文献509篇,涉及57个国家、976个机构、267份期刊,从发文量、发文载体、关键词共现、关键词聚类四个方面对本领域文献各个节点进行了梳理,以详尽直观地了解痕迹类物证统计量化研究脉络与前沿热点。研究结果表明,痕迹类物证的统计量化方法研究文献量在过去几十年间呈现波动式增长;欧洲国家对于这一主题有较多的合作关系,形成了一个较为紧密的区域合作网络,荷兰法庭科学研究所为发文量最高的机构;指纹是痕迹类物证统计量化研究的重要对象,统计量化方法主要聚焦于似然比、贝叶斯网络等基于贝叶斯定理的方法;研究热点呈现从主观量化方法聚类(主观似然比)到客观量化方法聚类(基于特征的似然比方法、基于分数的似然比方法)转变的趋势。痕迹类物证统计量化研究目前存在高维数据解释困难、模型的误差率挑战、模型参数估计挑战等问题。本文建议从量化高维数据证据质量评价指标、开发动态调整容错率模型、采用多重验证和评估策略、拓展痕迹类证据新范式专家共识等方面进行改进。展开更多
基金Project(71371182) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Reliability and remaining useful life(RUL)estimation for a satellite rechargeable lithium battery(RLB)are significant for prognostic and health management(PHM).A novel Bayesian framework is proposed to do reliability analysis by synthesizing multisource data,including bivariate degradation data and lifetime data.Bivariate degradation means that there are two degraded performance characteristics leading to the failure of the system.First,linear Wiener process and Frank Copula function are used to model the dependent degradation processes of the RLB's temperature and discharge voltage.Next,the Bayesian method,in combination with Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)simulations,is provided to integrate limited bivariate degradation data with other congeneric RLBs'lifetime data.Then reliability evaluation and RUL prediction are carried out for PHM.A simulation study demonstrates that due to the data fusion,parameter estimations and predicted RUL obtained from our model are more precise than models only using degradation data or ignoring the dependency of different degradation processes.Finally,a practical case study of a satellite RLB verifies the usability of the model.
基金Financial support for this work,provided by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.60974126)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(No.BK2009094)
文摘The traditional least squares support vector regression（LS-SVR）model,using cross validation to determine the regularization parameter and kernel parameter,is time-consuming.We propose a Bayesian evidence framework to infer the LS-SVR model parameters.Three levels Bayesian inferences are used to determine the model parameters,regularization hyper-parameters and tune the nuclear parameters by model comparison.On this basis,we established Bayesian LS-SVR time-series gas forecasting models and provide steps for the algorithm.The gas outburst data of a Hebi 10th mine working face is used to validate the model.The optimal embedding dimension and delay time of the time series were obtained by the smallest differential entropy method.Finally,within a MATLAB7.1 environment,we used actual coal gas data to compare the traditional LS-SVR and the Bayesian LS-SVR with LS-SVMlab1.5 Toolbox simulation.The results show that the Bayesian framework of an LS-SVR significantly improves the speed and accuracy of the forecast.
基金the sponsorship of the Key Technology for Geophysical Prediction of Ultra-Deep Carbonate Reservoirs(P24240)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U24B2020)the National Science and Technology Major Project of China for New Oil and Gas Exploration and Development(Grant No.2024ZD1400102)。
文摘Fluid identification and anisotropic parameters characterization are crucial for shale reservoir exploration and development.However,the anisotropic reflection coefficient equation,based on the transverse isotropy with a vertical axis of symmetry(VTI)medium assumption,involves numerous parameters to be inverted.This complexity reduces its stability and impacts the accuracy of seismic amplitude variation with offset(AVO)inversion results.In this study,a novel anisotropic equation that includes the fluid term and Thomsen anisotropic parameters is rewritten,which reduces the equation's dimensionality and increases its stability.Additionally,the traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)inversion algorithm exhibits a high rejection rate for random samples and relies on known parameter distributions such as the Gaussian distribution,limiting the algorithm's convergence and sample randomness.To address these limitations and evaluate the uncertainty of AVO inversion,the IADR-Gibbs algorithm is proposed,which incorporates the Independent Adaptive Delayed Rejection(IADR)algorithm with the Gibbs sampling algorithm.Grounded in Bayesian theory,the new algorithm introduces support points to construct a proposal distribution of non-parametric distribution and reselects the rejected samples according to the Delayed Rejection(DR)strategy.Rejected samples are then added to the support points to update the proposal distribution function adaptively.The equation rewriting method and the IADR-Gibbs algorithm improve the accuracy and robustness of AVO inversion.The effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method are validated through synthetic gather tests and practical data applications.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.60504033)
文摘In the paper, an iterative method is presented to the optimal control of batch processes. Generally it is very difficult to acquire an accurate mechanistic model for a batch process. Because support vector machine is powerful for the problems characterized by small samples, nonlinearity, high dimension and local minima, support vector regression models are developed for the optimal control of batch processes where end-point properties are required. The model parameters are selected within the Bayesian evidence framework. Based on the model, an iterative method is used to exploit the repetitive nature of batch processes to determine the optimal operating policy. Numerical simulation shows that the iterative optimal control can improve the process performance through iterations.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (60874068)
文摘The command and control（C2） is a decision-making process based on human cognition,which contains operational,physical,and human characteristics,so it takes on uncertainty and complexity.As a decision support approach,Bayesian networks（BNs） provide a framework in which a decision is made by combining the experts＇ knowledge and the specific data.In addition,an expert system represented by human cognitive framework is adopted to express the real-time decision-making process of the decision maker.The combination of the Bayesian decision support and human cognitive framework in the C2 of a specific application field is modeled and executed by colored Petri nets（CPNs）,and the consequences of execution manifest such combination can perfectly present the decision-making process in C2.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(No.2013CB228603)National Science and Technology major projects(No.2011ZX05024 and 2011ZX05010)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41174119)
文摘Seismic inversion is a highly ill-posed problem, due to many factors such as the limited seismic frequency bandwidth and inappropriate forward modeling. To obtain a unique solution, some smoothing constraints, e.g., the Tikhonov regularization are usually applied. The Tikhonov method can maintain a global smooth solution, but cause a fuzzy structure edge. In this paper we use Huber-Markov random-field edge protection method in the procedure of inverting three parameters, P-velocity, S-velocity and density. The method can avoid blurring the structure edge and resist noise. For the parameter to be inverted, the Huber- Markov random-field constructs a neighborhood system, which further acts as the vertical and lateral constraints. We use a quadratic Huber edge penalty function within the layer to suppress noise and a linear one on the edges to avoid a fuzzy result. The effectiveness of our method is proved by inverting the synthetic data without and with noises. The relationship between the adopted constraints and the inversion results is analyzed as well.
文摘This study seeks to investigate the variations associated with lane lateral locations and days of the week in the stochastic and dynamic transition of traffic regimes(DTTR).In the proposed analysis,hierarchical regression models fitted using Bayesian frameworks were used to calibrate the transition probabilities that describe the DTTR.Datasets of two sites on a freeway facility located in Jacksonville,Florida,were selected for the analysis.The traffic speed thresholds to define traffic regimes were estimated using the Gaussian mixture model(GMM).The GMM revealed that two and three regimes were adequate mixture components for estimating the traffic speed distributions for Site 1 and 2 datasets,respectively.The results of hierarchical regression models show that there is considerable evidence that there are heterogeneity characteristics in the DTTR associated with lateral lane locations.In particular,the hierarchical regressions reveal that the breakdown process is more affected by the variations compared to other evaluated transition processes with the estimated intra-class correlation(ICC)of about 73%.The transition from congestion on-set/dissolution(COD)to the congested regime is estimated with the highest ICC of 49.4%in the three-regime model,and the lowest ICC of 1%was observed on the transition from the congested to COD regime.On the other hand,different days of the week are not found to contribute to the variations(the highest ICC was 1.44%)on the DTTR.These findings can be used in developing effective congestion countermeasures,particularly in the application of intelligent transportation systems,such as dynamic lane-management strategies.
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Major Project(No.2011 ZX05007-006)the 973 Program of China(No.2013CB228604)the Major Project of Petrochina(No.2014B-0610)
文摘Variation of reservoir physical properties can cause changes in its elastic parameters. However, this is not a simple linear relation. Furthermore, the lack of observations, data overlap, noise interference, and idealized models increases the uncertainties of the inversion result. Thus, we propose an inversion method that is different from traditional statistical rock physics modeling. First, we use deterministic and stochastic rock physics models considering the uncertainties of elastic parameters obtained by prestack seismic inversion and introduce weighting coefficients to establish a weighted statistical relation between reservoir and elastic parameters. Second, based on the weighted statistical relation, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations to generate the random joint distribution space of reservoir and elastic parameters that serves as a sample solution space of an objective function. Finally, we propose a fast solution criterion to maximize the posterior probability density and obtain reservoir parameters. The method has high efficiency and application potential.
文摘本文以Web of Science核心数据库为检索数据集,以VOSviewer1.6.20和CiteSpace6.2R6可视化分析软件为研究工具,检索了痕迹类物证统计学量化研究相关文献509篇,涉及57个国家、976个机构、267份期刊,从发文量、发文载体、关键词共现、关键词聚类四个方面对本领域文献各个节点进行了梳理,以详尽直观地了解痕迹类物证统计量化研究脉络与前沿热点。研究结果表明,痕迹类物证的统计量化方法研究文献量在过去几十年间呈现波动式增长;欧洲国家对于这一主题有较多的合作关系,形成了一个较为紧密的区域合作网络,荷兰法庭科学研究所为发文量最高的机构;指纹是痕迹类物证统计量化研究的重要对象,统计量化方法主要聚焦于似然比、贝叶斯网络等基于贝叶斯定理的方法;研究热点呈现从主观量化方法聚类(主观似然比)到客观量化方法聚类(基于特征的似然比方法、基于分数的似然比方法)转变的趋势。痕迹类物证统计量化研究目前存在高维数据解释困难、模型的误差率挑战、模型参数估计挑战等问题。本文建议从量化高维数据证据质量评价指标、开发动态调整容错率模型、采用多重验证和评估策略、拓展痕迹类证据新范式专家共识等方面进行改进。
