Assessing the stability of slopes is one of the crucial tasks of geotechnical engineering for assessing and managing risks related to natural hazards,directly affecting safety and sustainable development.This study pr...Assessing the stability of slopes is one of the crucial tasks of geotechnical engineering for assessing and managing risks related to natural hazards,directly affecting safety and sustainable development.This study primarily focuses on developing robust and practical hybrid models to predict the slope stability status of circular failure mode.For this purpose,three robust models were developed using a database including 627 case histories of slope stability status.The models were developed using the random forest(RF),support vector machine(SVM),and extreme gradient boosting(XGB)techniques,employing 5-fold cross validation approach.To enhance the performance of models,this study employs Bayesian optimizer(BO)to fine-tuning their hyperparameters.The results indicate that the performance order of the three developed models is RF-BO>SVM-BO>XGB-BO.Furthermore,comparing the developed models with previous models,it was found that the RF-BO model can effectively determine the slope stability status with outstanding performance.This implies that the RF-BO model could serve as a dependable tool for project managers,assisting in the evaluation of slope stability during both the design and operational phases of projects,despite the inherent challenges in this domain.The results regarding the importance of influencing parameters indicate that cohesion,friction angle,and slope height exert the most significant impact on slope stability status.This suggests that concentrating on these parameters and employing the RF-BO model can effectively mitigate the severity of geohazards in the short-term and contribute to the attainment of long-term sustainable development objectives.展开更多
Miniature air quality sensors are widely used in urban grid-based monitoring due to their flexibility in deployment and low cost.However,the raw data collected by these devices often suffer from low accuracy caused by...Miniature air quality sensors are widely used in urban grid-based monitoring due to their flexibility in deployment and low cost.However,the raw data collected by these devices often suffer from low accuracy caused by environmental interference and sensor drift,highlighting the need for effective calibration methods to improve data reliability.This study proposes a data correction method based on Bayesian Optimization Support Vector Regression(BO-SVR),which combines the nonlinear modeling capability of Support Vector Regression(SVR)with the efficient global hyperparameter search of Bayesian Optimization.By introducing cross-validation loss as the optimization objective and using Gaussian process modeling with an Expected Improvement acquisition strategy,the approach automatically determines optimal hyperparameters for accurate pollutant concentration prediction.Experiments on real-world micro-sensor datasets demonstrate that BO-SVR outperforms traditional SVR,grid search SVR,and random forest(RF)models across multiple pollutants,including PM_(2.5),PM_(10),CO,NO_(2),SO_(2),and O_(3).The proposed method achieves lower prediction residuals,higher fitting accuracy,and better generalization,offering an efficient and practical solution for enhancing the quality of micro-sensor air monitoring data.展开更多
Gastric cancer is the third leading cause of cancer-related mortality and remains a major global health issue^([1]).Annually,approximately 479,000individuals in China are diagnosed with gastric cancer,accounting for a...Gastric cancer is the third leading cause of cancer-related mortality and remains a major global health issue^([1]).Annually,approximately 479,000individuals in China are diagnosed with gastric cancer,accounting for almost 45%of all new cases worldwide^([2]).展开更多
Bifunctional oxide-zeolite-based composites(OXZEO)have emerged as promising materials for the direct conversion of syngas to olefins.However,experimental screening and optimization of reaction parameters remain resour...Bifunctional oxide-zeolite-based composites(OXZEO)have emerged as promising materials for the direct conversion of syngas to olefins.However,experimental screening and optimization of reaction parameters remain resource-intensive.To address this challenge,we implemented a three-stage framework integrating machine learning,Bayesian optimization,and experimental validation,utilizing a carefully curated dataset from the literature.Our ensemble-tree model(R^(2)>0.87)identified Zn-Zr and Cu-Mg binary mixed oxides as the most effective OXZEO systems,with their light olefin space-time yields confirmed by physically mixing with HSAPO-34 through experimental validation.Density functional theory calculations further elucidated the activity trends between Zn-Zr and Cu-Mg mixed oxides.Among 16 catalyst and reaction condition descriptors,the oxide/zeolite ratio,reaction temperature,and pressure emerged as the most significant factors.This interpretable,data-driven framework offers a versatile approach that can be applied to other catalytic processes,providing a powerful tool for experiment design and optimization in catalysis.展开更多
Extreme-mass-ratio inspiral(EMRI)signals pose significant challenges to gravitational wave(GW)data analysis,mainly owing to their highly complex waveforms and high-dimensional parameter space.Given their extended time...Extreme-mass-ratio inspiral(EMRI)signals pose significant challenges to gravitational wave(GW)data analysis,mainly owing to their highly complex waveforms and high-dimensional parameter space.Given their extended timescales of months to years and low signal-to-noise ratios,detecting and analyzing EMRIs with confidence generally relies on long-term observations.Besides the length of data,parameter estimation is particularly challenging due to non-local parameter degeneracies,arising from multiple local maxima,as well as flat regions and ridges inherent in the likelihood function.These factors lead to exceptionally high time complexity for parameter analysis based on traditional matched filtering and random sampling methods.To address these challenges,the present study explores a machine learning approach to Bayesian posterior estimation of EMRI signals,leveraging the recently developed flow matching technique based on ordinary differential equation neural networks.To our knowledge,this is also the first instance of applying continuous normalizing flows to EMRI analysis.Our approach demonstrates an increase in computational efficiency by several orders of magnitude compared to the traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)methods,while preserving the unbiasedness of results.However,we note that the posterior distributions generated by FMPE may exhibit broader uncertainty ranges than those obtained through full Bayesian sampling,requiring subsequent refinement via methods such as MCMC.Notably,when searching from large priors,our model rapidly approaches the true values while MCMC struggles to converge to the global maximum.Our findings highlight that machine learning has the potential to efficiently handle the vast EMRI parameter space of up to seventeen dimensions,offering new perspectives for advancing space-based GW detection and GW astronomy.展开更多
Hyperparameters are important for machine learning algorithms since they directly control the behaviors of training algorithms and have a significant effect on the performance of machine learning models. Several techn...Hyperparameters are important for machine learning algorithms since they directly control the behaviors of training algorithms and have a significant effect on the performance of machine learning models. Several techniques have been developed and successfully applied for certain application domains. However, this work demands professional knowledge and expert experience. And sometimes it has to resort to the brute-force search.Therefore, if an efficient hyperparameter optimization algorithm can be developed to optimize any given machine learning method, it will greatly improve the efficiency of machine learning. In this paper, we consider building the relationship between the performance of the machine learning models and their hyperparameters by Gaussian processes. In this way, the hyperparameter tuning problem can be abstracted as an optimization problem and Bayesian optimization is used to solve the problem. Bayesian optimization is based on the Bayesian theorem. It sets a prior over the optimization function and gathers the information from the previous sample to update the posterior of the optimization function. A utility function selects the next sample point to maximize the optimization function.Several experiments were conducted on standard test datasets. Experiment results show that the proposed method can find the best hyperparameters for the widely used machine learning models, such as the random forest algorithm and the neural networks, even multi-grained cascade forest under the consideration of time cost.展开更多
Presented is a multiple model soft sensing method based on Affinity Propagation （AP）, Gaussian process （GP） and Bayesian committee machine （BCM）. AP clustering arithmetic is used to cluster training samples acco...Presented is a multiple model soft sensing method based on Affinity Propagation （AP）, Gaussian process （GP） and Bayesian committee machine （BCM）. AP clustering arithmetic is used to cluster training samples according to their operating points. Then, the sub-models are estimated by Gaussian Process Regression （GPR）. Finally, in order to get a global probabilistic prediction, Bayesian committee mactnne is used to combine the outputs of the sub-estimators. The proposed method has been applied to predict the light naphtha end point in hydrocracker fractionators. Practical applications indicate that it is useful for the online prediction of quality monitoring in chemical processes.展开更多
Machine learning method has been widely used in various geotechnical engineering risk analysis in recent years. However, the overfitting problem often occurs due to the small number of samples obtained in history. Thi...Machine learning method has been widely used in various geotechnical engineering risk analysis in recent years. However, the overfitting problem often occurs due to the small number of samples obtained in history. This paper proposes the FuzzySVM(support vector machine) geotechnical engineering risk analysis method based on the Bayesian network. The proposed method utilizes the fuzzy set theory to build a Bayesian network to reflect prior knowledge, and utilizes the SVM to build a Bayesian network to reflect historical samples. Then a Bayesian network for evaluation is built in Bayesian estimation method by combining prior knowledge with historical samples. Taking seismic damage evaluation of slopes as an example, the steps of the method are stated in detail. The proposed method is used to evaluate the seismic damage of 96 slopes along roads in the area affected by the Wenchuan earthquake. The evaluation results show that the method can solve the overfitting problem, which often occurs if the machine learning methods are used to evaluate risk of geotechnical engineering, and the performance of the method is much better than that of the previous machine learning methods. Moreover,the proposed method can also effectively evaluate various geotechnical engineering risks in the absence of some influencing factors.展开更多
It is difficult to rapidly design the process parameters of copper alloys by using the traditional trial-and-error method and simultaneously improve the conflicting mechanical and electrical properties.The purpose of ...It is difficult to rapidly design the process parameters of copper alloys by using the traditional trial-and-error method and simultaneously improve the conflicting mechanical and electrical properties.The purpose of this work is to develop a new type of Cu-Ni-Co-Si alloy saving scarce and expensive Co element,in which the Co content is less than half of the lower limit in ASTM standard C70350 alloy,while the properties are as the same level as C70350 alloy.Here we adopted a strategy combining Bayesian optimization machine learning and experimental iteration and quickly designed the secondary deformation-aging parameters(cold rolling deformation 90%,aging temperature 450℃,and aging time 1.25 h)of the new copper alloy with only 32 experiments(27 basic sample data acquisition experiments and 5 iteration experiments),which broke through the barrier of low efficiency and high cost of trial-and-error design of deformation-aging parameters in precipitation strengthened copper alloy.The experimental hardness,tensile strength,and electrical conductivity of the new copper alloy are HV(285±4),(872±3)MPa,and(44.2±0.7)%IACS(international annealed copper standard),reaching the property level of the commercial lead frame C70350 alloy.This work provides a new idea for the rapid design of material process parameters and the simultaneous improvement of mechanical and electrical properties.展开更多
Geomechanical parameters are complex and uncertain.In order to take this complexity and uncertainty into account,a probabilistic back-analysis method combining the Bayesian probability with the least squares support v...Geomechanical parameters are complex and uncertain.In order to take this complexity and uncertainty into account,a probabilistic back-analysis method combining the Bayesian probability with the least squares support vector machine(LS-SVM) technique was proposed.The Bayesian probability was used to deal with the uncertainties in the geomechanical parameters,and an LS-SVM was utilized to establish the relationship between the displacement and the geomechanical parameters.The proposed approach was applied to the geomechanical parameter identification in a slope stability case study which was related to the permanent ship lock within the Three Gorges project in China.The results indicate that the proposed method presents the uncertainties in the geomechanical parameters reasonably well,and also improves the understanding that the monitored information is important in real projects.展开更多
The interaction between the heat source location, its intensity, thermal expansion coefficient, the machine system configuration and the running environment creates complex thermal behavior of a machine tool, and also...The interaction between the heat source location, its intensity, thermal expansion coefficient, the machine system configuration and the running environment creates complex thermal behavior of a machine tool, and also makes thermal error prediction difficult. To address this issue, a novel prediction method for machine tool thermal error based on Bayesian networks (BNs) was presented. The method described causal relationships of factors inducing thermal deformation by graph theory and estimated the thermal error by Bayesian statistical techniques. Due to the effective combination of domain knowledge and sampled data, the BN method could adapt to the change of running state of machine, and obtain satisfactory prediction accuracy. Ex- periments on spindle thermal deformation were conducted to evaluate the modeling performance. Experimental results indicate that the BN method performs far better than the least squares (LS) analysis in terms of modeling estimation accuracy.展开更多
The data-driven phenomenological models based on deformation measurements have been widely utilized to predict the slope failure time(SFT).The observational and model uncertainties could lead the predicted SFT calcula...The data-driven phenomenological models based on deformation measurements have been widely utilized to predict the slope failure time(SFT).The observational and model uncertainties could lead the predicted SFT calculated from the phenomenological models to deviate from the actual SFT.Currently,very limited study has been conducted on how to evaluate the effect of such uncertainties on SFT prediction.In this paper,a comprehensive slope failure database was compiled.A Bayesian machine learning(BML)-based method was developed to learn the model and observational uncertainties involved in SFT prediction,through which the probabilistic distribution of the SFT can be obtained.This method was illustrated in detail with an example.Verification studies show that the BML-based method is superior to the traditional inverse velocity method(INVM)and the maximum likelihood method for predicting SFT.The proposed method in this study provides an effective tool for SFT prediction.展开更多
The core of computer numerical control(CNC) machine tool is the electrical system which controls and coordinates every part of CNC machine tool to complete processing tasks, so it is of great significance to strengthe...The core of computer numerical control(CNC) machine tool is the electrical system which controls and coordinates every part of CNC machine tool to complete processing tasks, so it is of great significance to strengthen the reliability of the electrical system. However, the electrical system is very complex due to many uncertain factors and dynamic stochastic characteristics when failure occurs. Therefore, the traditional fault tree analysis(FTA) method is not applicable. Bayesian network(BN) not only has a unique advantage to analyze nodes with multiply states in reliability analysis for complex systems, but also can solve the state explosion problem properly caused by Markov model when dealing with dynamic fault tree(DFT). In addition, the forward causal reasoning of BN can get the conditional probability distribution of the system under considering the uncertainty;the backward diagnosis reasoning of BN can recognize the weak links in system, so it is valuable for improving the system reliability.展开更多
In the paper, an iterative method is presented to the optimal control of batch processes. Generally it is very difficult to acquire an accurate mechanistic model for a batch process. Because support vector machine is ...In the paper, an iterative method is presented to the optimal control of batch processes. Generally it is very difficult to acquire an accurate mechanistic model for a batch process. Because support vector machine is powerful for the problems characterized by small samples, nonlinearity, high dimension and local minima, support vector regression models are developed for the optimal control of batch processes where end-point properties are required. The model parameters are selected within the Bayesian evidence framework. Based on the model, an iterative method is used to exploit the repetitive nature of batch processes to determine the optimal operating policy. Numerical simulation shows that the iterative optimal control can improve the process performance through iterations.展开更多
This study investigates photonuclear reaction(γ,n)cross-sections using Bayesian neural network(BNN)analysis.After determining the optimal network architecture,which features two hidden layers,each with 50 hidden node...This study investigates photonuclear reaction(γ,n)cross-sections using Bayesian neural network(BNN)analysis.After determining the optimal network architecture,which features two hidden layers,each with 50 hidden nodes,training was conducted for 30,000 iterations to ensure comprehensive data capture.By analyzing the distribution of absolute errors positively correlated with the cross-section for the isotope 159Tb,as well as the relative errors unrelated to the cross-section,we confirmed that the network effectively captured the data features without overfitting.Comparison with the TENDL-2021 Database demonstrated the BNN's reliability in fitting photonuclear cross-sections with lower average errors.The predictions for nuclei with single and double giant dipole resonance peak cross-sections,the accurate determination of the photoneutron reaction threshold in the low-energy region,and the precise description of trends in the high-energy cross-sections further demonstrate the network's generalization ability on the validation set.This can be attributed to the consistency of the training data.By using consistent training sets from different laboratories,Bayesian neural networks can predict nearby unknown cross-sections based on existing laboratory data,thereby estimating the potential differences between other laboratories'existing data and their own measurement results.Experimental measurements of photonuclear reactions on the newly constructed SLEGS beamline will contribute to clarifying the differences in cross-sections within the existing data.展开更多
SVM handles classification problem only considering samples themselves and the classification effect depends on the characteristics of the training samples but not the current information of classified problem.From th...SVM handles classification problem only considering samples themselves and the classification effect depends on the characteristics of the training samples but not the current information of classified problem.From the phenomena of data crossing in systems,this paper improves the classification effect of SVM by adding the prior probability item reflecting the classified problem information into the decision function,which fuses the Bayesian criterion into SVM.The detailed deducing process and realizing steps of the algorithm are put forward.It is verified through two instances.The results showthat the new algorithm has better effect than the traditional SVM algorithm,and its robustness and sensitivity are all improved.展开更多
A machine learning approach based on Bayesian neural networks was developed to predict the complete fusion cross-sections of weakly bound nuclei.This method was trained and validated using 475 experimental data points...A machine learning approach based on Bayesian neural networks was developed to predict the complete fusion cross-sections of weakly bound nuclei.This method was trained and validated using 475 experimental data points from 39 reaction systems induced by ^(6,7)Li,^(9)Be,and ^(10)B.The constructed Bayesian neural network demonstrated a high degree of accuracy in evaluating complete fusion cross-sections.By comparing the predicted cross-sections with those obtained from a single-barrier penetration model,the suppression effect of ^(6,7)Li and ^(9)Be with a stable nucleus was systematically analyzed.In the cases of ^(6)Li and ^(7)Li,less suppression was predicted for relatively light-mass targets than for heavy-mass targets,and a notably distinct dependence relationship was identified,suggesting that the predominant breakup mechanisms might change in different mass target regions.In addition,minimum suppression factors were predicted to occur near target nuclei with neutron-closed shell.展开更多
Based on data from the Jilin Water Diversion Tunnels from the Songhua River(China),an improved and real-time prediction method optimized by multi-algorithm for tunnel boring machine(TBM)cutter-head torque is presented...Based on data from the Jilin Water Diversion Tunnels from the Songhua River(China),an improved and real-time prediction method optimized by multi-algorithm for tunnel boring machine(TBM)cutter-head torque is presented.Firstly,a function excluding invalid and abnormal data is established to distinguish TBM operating state,and a feature selection method based on the SelectKBest algorithm is proposed.Accordingly,ten features that are most closely related to the cutter-head torque are selected as input variables,which,in descending order of influence,include the sum of motor torque,cutter-head power,sum of motor power,sum of motor current,advance rate,cutter-head pressure,total thrust force,penetration rate,cutter-head rotational velocity,and field penetration index.Secondly,a real-time cutterhead torque prediction model’s structure is developed,based on the bidirectional long short-term memory(BLSTM)network integrating the dropout algorithm to prevent overfitting.Then,an algorithm to optimize hyperparameters of model based on Bayesian and cross-validation is proposed.Early stopping and checkpoint algorithms are integrated to optimize the training process.Finally,a BLSTMbased real-time cutter-head torque prediction model is developed,which fully utilizes the previous time-series tunneling information.The mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of the model in the verification section is 7.3%,implying that the presented model is suitable for real-time cutter-head torque prediction.Furthermore,an incremental learning method based on the above base model is introduced to improve the adaptability of the model during the TBM tunneling.Comparison of the prediction performance between the base and incremental learning models in the same tunneling section shows that:(1)the MAPE of the predicted results of the BLSTM-based real-time cutter-head torque prediction model remains below 10%,and both the coefficient of determination(R^(2))and correlation coefficient(r)between measured and predicted values exceed 0.95;and(2)the incremental learning method is suitable for realtime cutter-head torque prediction and can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and generalization capacity of the model during the excavation process.展开更多
Recent years have witnessed a continuous discovering of new thermoelectric materials which has experienced a paradigm shift from try-and-error efforts to experience-based discovering and first-principles calculation. ...Recent years have witnessed a continuous discovering of new thermoelectric materials which has experienced a paradigm shift from try-and-error efforts to experience-based discovering and first-principles calculation. However, both the experiment and first-principles calculation deriving routes to determine a new compound are time and resources consuming. Here, we demonstrated a machine learning approach to discover new M_(2)X_(3)-type thermoelectric materials with only the composition information. According to the classic Bi_(2)Te_(3) material, we constructed an M_(2)X_(3)-type thermoelectric material library with 720 compounds by using isoelectronic substitution, in which only 101 compounds have crystalline structure information in the Inorganic Crystal Structure Database(ICSD) and Materials Project(MP) database. A model based on the random forest(RF) algorithm plus Bayesian optimization was used to explore the underlying principles to determine the crystal structures from the known compounds. The physical properties of constituent elements(such as atomic mass, electronegativity, ionic radius) were used to define the feature of the compounds with a general formula ^(1)M^(2)M^(1)X^(2)X^(3)X(^(1)M +^(2)M:^(1)X +^(2)X+^(3)X = 2:3). The primary goal is to find new thermoelectric materials with the same rhombohedral structure as Bi_(2)Te_(3) by machine learning.The final trained RF model showed a high accuracy of 91% on the prediction of rhombohedral compounds. Finally, we selected four important features to proceed with the polynomial fitting with the prediction results from the RF model and used the acquired polynomial function to make further discoveries outside the pre-defined material library.展开更多
To deal with multi-source multi-class classification problems, the method of combining multiple multi-class probability support vector machines (MPSVMs) using Bayesian theory is proposed in this paper. The MPSVMs are ...To deal with multi-source multi-class classification problems, the method of combining multiple multi-class probability support vector machines (MPSVMs) using Bayesian theory is proposed in this paper. The MPSVMs are designed by mapping the output of standard support vector machines into a calibrated posterior probability by using a learned sigmoid function and then combining these learned binary-class probability SVMs. Two Bayes based methods for combining multiple MPSVMs are applied to improve the performance of classification. Our proposed methods are applied to fault diagnosis of a diesel engine. The experimental results show that the new methods can improve the accuracy and robustness of fault diagnosis.展开更多
文摘Assessing the stability of slopes is one of the crucial tasks of geotechnical engineering for assessing and managing risks related to natural hazards,directly affecting safety and sustainable development.This study primarily focuses on developing robust and practical hybrid models to predict the slope stability status of circular failure mode.For this purpose,three robust models were developed using a database including 627 case histories of slope stability status.The models were developed using the random forest(RF),support vector machine(SVM),and extreme gradient boosting(XGB)techniques,employing 5-fold cross validation approach.To enhance the performance of models,this study employs Bayesian optimizer(BO)to fine-tuning their hyperparameters.The results indicate that the performance order of the three developed models is RF-BO>SVM-BO>XGB-BO.Furthermore,comparing the developed models with previous models,it was found that the RF-BO model can effectively determine the slope stability status with outstanding performance.This implies that the RF-BO model could serve as a dependable tool for project managers,assisting in the evaluation of slope stability during both the design and operational phases of projects,despite the inherent challenges in this domain.The results regarding the importance of influencing parameters indicate that cohesion,friction angle,and slope height exert the most significant impact on slope stability status.This suggests that concentrating on these parameters and employing the RF-BO model can effectively mitigate the severity of geohazards in the short-term and contribute to the attainment of long-term sustainable development objectives.
文摘Miniature air quality sensors are widely used in urban grid-based monitoring due to their flexibility in deployment and low cost.However,the raw data collected by these devices often suffer from low accuracy caused by environmental interference and sensor drift,highlighting the need for effective calibration methods to improve data reliability.This study proposes a data correction method based on Bayesian Optimization Support Vector Regression(BO-SVR),which combines the nonlinear modeling capability of Support Vector Regression(SVR)with the efficient global hyperparameter search of Bayesian Optimization.By introducing cross-validation loss as the optimization objective and using Gaussian process modeling with an Expected Improvement acquisition strategy,the approach automatically determines optimal hyperparameters for accurate pollutant concentration prediction.Experiments on real-world micro-sensor datasets demonstrate that BO-SVR outperforms traditional SVR,grid search SVR,and random forest(RF)models across multiple pollutants,including PM_(2.5),PM_(10),CO,NO_(2),SO_(2),and O_(3).The proposed method achieves lower prediction residuals,higher fitting accuracy,and better generalization,offering an efficient and practical solution for enhancing the quality of micro-sensor air monitoring data.
基金supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Shanghai(23ZR1463600)Shanghai Pudong New Area Health Commission Research Project(PW2021A-69)Research Project of Clinical Research Center of Shanghai Health Medical University(22MC2022002)。
文摘Gastric cancer is the third leading cause of cancer-related mortality and remains a major global health issue^([1]).Annually,approximately 479,000individuals in China are diagnosed with gastric cancer,accounting for almost 45%of all new cases worldwide^([2]).
基金funded by the KRICT Project (KK2512-10) of the Korea Research Institute of Chemical Technology and the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy (MOTIE)the Korea Institute for Advancement of Technology (KIAT) through the Virtual Engineering Platform Program (P0022334)+1 种基金supported by the Carbon Neutral Industrial Strategic Technology Development Program (RS-202300261088) funded by the Ministry of Trade, Industry & Energy (MOTIE, Korea)Further support was provided by research fund of Chungnam National University。
文摘Bifunctional oxide-zeolite-based composites(OXZEO)have emerged as promising materials for the direct conversion of syngas to olefins.However,experimental screening and optimization of reaction parameters remain resource-intensive.To address this challenge,we implemented a three-stage framework integrating machine learning,Bayesian optimization,and experimental validation,utilizing a carefully curated dataset from the literature.Our ensemble-tree model(R^(2)>0.87)identified Zn-Zr and Cu-Mg binary mixed oxides as the most effective OXZEO systems,with their light olefin space-time yields confirmed by physically mixing with HSAPO-34 through experimental validation.Density functional theory calculations further elucidated the activity trends between Zn-Zr and Cu-Mg mixed oxides.Among 16 catalyst and reaction condition descriptors,the oxide/zeolite ratio,reaction temperature,and pressure emerged as the most significant factors.This interpretable,data-driven framework offers a versatile approach that can be applied to other catalytic processes,providing a powerful tool for experiment design and optimization in catalysis.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant Nos.2021YFC2201901,2021YFC2203004,2020YFC2200100 and 2021YFC2201903)International Partnership Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.025GJHZ2023106GC)+4 种基金the financial support from Brazilian agencies Funda??o de AmparoàPesquisa do Estado de S?o Paulo(FAPESP)Funda??o de Amparoà Pesquisa do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul(FAPERGS)Fundacao de Amparoà Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro(FAPERJ)Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico(CNPq)Coordenacao de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior(CAPES)。
文摘Extreme-mass-ratio inspiral(EMRI)signals pose significant challenges to gravitational wave(GW)data analysis,mainly owing to their highly complex waveforms and high-dimensional parameter space.Given their extended timescales of months to years and low signal-to-noise ratios,detecting and analyzing EMRIs with confidence generally relies on long-term observations.Besides the length of data,parameter estimation is particularly challenging due to non-local parameter degeneracies,arising from multiple local maxima,as well as flat regions and ridges inherent in the likelihood function.These factors lead to exceptionally high time complexity for parameter analysis based on traditional matched filtering and random sampling methods.To address these challenges,the present study explores a machine learning approach to Bayesian posterior estimation of EMRI signals,leveraging the recently developed flow matching technique based on ordinary differential equation neural networks.To our knowledge,this is also the first instance of applying continuous normalizing flows to EMRI analysis.Our approach demonstrates an increase in computational efficiency by several orders of magnitude compared to the traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)methods,while preserving the unbiasedness of results.However,we note that the posterior distributions generated by FMPE may exhibit broader uncertainty ranges than those obtained through full Bayesian sampling,requiring subsequent refinement via methods such as MCMC.Notably,when searching from large priors,our model rapidly approaches the true values while MCMC struggles to converge to the global maximum.Our findings highlight that machine learning has the potential to efficiently handle the vast EMRI parameter space of up to seventeen dimensions,offering new perspectives for advancing space-based GW detection and GW astronomy.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.61503059
文摘Hyperparameters are important for machine learning algorithms since they directly control the behaviors of training algorithms and have a significant effect on the performance of machine learning models. Several techniques have been developed and successfully applied for certain application domains. However, this work demands professional knowledge and expert experience. And sometimes it has to resort to the brute-force search.Therefore, if an efficient hyperparameter optimization algorithm can be developed to optimize any given machine learning method, it will greatly improve the efficiency of machine learning. In this paper, we consider building the relationship between the performance of the machine learning models and their hyperparameters by Gaussian processes. In this way, the hyperparameter tuning problem can be abstracted as an optimization problem and Bayesian optimization is used to solve the problem. Bayesian optimization is based on the Bayesian theorem. It sets a prior over the optimization function and gathers the information from the previous sample to update the posterior of the optimization function. A utility function selects the next sample point to maximize the optimization function.Several experiments were conducted on standard test datasets. Experiment results show that the proposed method can find the best hyperparameters for the widely used machine learning models, such as the random forest algorithm and the neural networks, even multi-grained cascade forest under the consideration of time cost.
基金Supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (2006AA040309)National BasicResearch Program of China (2007CB714000)
文摘Presented is a multiple model soft sensing method based on Affinity Propagation （AP）, Gaussian process （GP） and Bayesian committee machine （BCM）. AP clustering arithmetic is used to cluster training samples according to their operating points. Then, the sub-models are estimated by Gaussian Process Regression （GPR）. Finally, in order to get a global probabilistic prediction, Bayesian committee mactnne is used to combine the outputs of the sub-estimators. The proposed method has been applied to predict the light naphtha end point in hydrocracker fractionators. Practical applications indicate that it is useful for the online prediction of quality monitoring in chemical processes.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program (Grant No. 2017YFC0504901)Sichuan Traffic Construction Science and Technology Project(Grant No. 2016B2–2)Doctoral Innovation Fund Program of Southwest Jiaotong University(Grant No. D-CX201804)
文摘Machine learning method has been widely used in various geotechnical engineering risk analysis in recent years. However, the overfitting problem often occurs due to the small number of samples obtained in history. This paper proposes the FuzzySVM(support vector machine) geotechnical engineering risk analysis method based on the Bayesian network. The proposed method utilizes the fuzzy set theory to build a Bayesian network to reflect prior knowledge, and utilizes the SVM to build a Bayesian network to reflect historical samples. Then a Bayesian network for evaluation is built in Bayesian estimation method by combining prior knowledge with historical samples. Taking seismic damage evaluation of slopes as an example, the steps of the method are stated in detail. The proposed method is used to evaluate the seismic damage of 96 slopes along roads in the area affected by the Wenchuan earthquake. The evaluation results show that the method can solve the overfitting problem, which often occurs if the machine learning methods are used to evaluate risk of geotechnical engineering, and the performance of the method is much better than that of the previous machine learning methods. Moreover,the proposed method can also effectively evaluate various geotechnical engineering risks in the absence of some influencing factors.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2021YFB 3803101)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52090041,52022011,and 51974028)。
文摘It is difficult to rapidly design the process parameters of copper alloys by using the traditional trial-and-error method and simultaneously improve the conflicting mechanical and electrical properties.The purpose of this work is to develop a new type of Cu-Ni-Co-Si alloy saving scarce and expensive Co element,in which the Co content is less than half of the lower limit in ASTM standard C70350 alloy,while the properties are as the same level as C70350 alloy.Here we adopted a strategy combining Bayesian optimization machine learning and experimental iteration and quickly designed the secondary deformation-aging parameters(cold rolling deformation 90%,aging temperature 450℃,and aging time 1.25 h)of the new copper alloy with only 32 experiments(27 basic sample data acquisition experiments and 5 iteration experiments),which broke through the barrier of low efficiency and high cost of trial-and-error design of deformation-aging parameters in precipitation strengthened copper alloy.The experimental hardness,tensile strength,and electrical conductivity of the new copper alloy are HV(285±4),(872±3)MPa,and(44.2±0.7)%IACS(international annealed copper standard),reaching the property level of the commercial lead frame C70350 alloy.This work provides a new idea for the rapid design of material process parameters and the simultaneous improvement of mechanical and electrical properties.
基金Projects(2013BAB02B01,2013BAB02B03)supported by the National Key Technologies R&D Program of ChinaProjects(41072224,41272347)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Geomechanical parameters are complex and uncertain.In order to take this complexity and uncertainty into account,a probabilistic back-analysis method combining the Bayesian probability with the least squares support vector machine(LS-SVM) technique was proposed.The Bayesian probability was used to deal with the uncertainties in the geomechanical parameters,and an LS-SVM was utilized to establish the relationship between the displacement and the geomechanical parameters.The proposed approach was applied to the geomechanical parameter identification in a slope stability case study which was related to the permanent ship lock within the Three Gorges project in China.The results indicate that the proposed method presents the uncertainties in the geomechanical parameters reasonably well,and also improves the understanding that the monitored information is important in real projects.
基金Project supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(No. 50675199)the Science and Technology Project of Zhejiang Province (No. 2006C11067), China
文摘The interaction between the heat source location, its intensity, thermal expansion coefficient, the machine system configuration and the running environment creates complex thermal behavior of a machine tool, and also makes thermal error prediction difficult. To address this issue, a novel prediction method for machine tool thermal error based on Bayesian networks (BNs) was presented. The method described causal relationships of factors inducing thermal deformation by graph theory and estimated the thermal error by Bayesian statistical techniques. Due to the effective combination of domain knowledge and sampled data, the BN method could adapt to the change of running state of machine, and obtain satisfactory prediction accuracy. Ex- periments on spindle thermal deformation were conducted to evaluate the modeling performance. Experimental results indicate that the BN method performs far better than the least squares (LS) analysis in terms of modeling estimation accuracy.
基金substantially supported by the Shuguang Program from Shanghai Education Development FoundationShanghai Municipal Education Commission, China (Grant No. 19SG19)+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 42072302)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, China
文摘The data-driven phenomenological models based on deformation measurements have been widely utilized to predict the slope failure time(SFT).The observational and model uncertainties could lead the predicted SFT calculated from the phenomenological models to deviate from the actual SFT.Currently,very limited study has been conducted on how to evaluate the effect of such uncertainties on SFT prediction.In this paper,a comprehensive slope failure database was compiled.A Bayesian machine learning(BML)-based method was developed to learn the model and observational uncertainties involved in SFT prediction,through which the probabilistic distribution of the SFT can be obtained.This method was illustrated in detail with an example.Verification studies show that the BML-based method is superior to the traditional inverse velocity method(INVM)and the maximum likelihood method for predicting SFT.The proposed method in this study provides an effective tool for SFT prediction.
基金the National Science and Technology Major Project of China(No.2014ZX04014-011)
文摘The core of computer numerical control(CNC) machine tool is the electrical system which controls and coordinates every part of CNC machine tool to complete processing tasks, so it is of great significance to strengthen the reliability of the electrical system. However, the electrical system is very complex due to many uncertain factors and dynamic stochastic characteristics when failure occurs. Therefore, the traditional fault tree analysis(FTA) method is not applicable. Bayesian network(BN) not only has a unique advantage to analyze nodes with multiply states in reliability analysis for complex systems, but also can solve the state explosion problem properly caused by Markov model when dealing with dynamic fault tree(DFT). In addition, the forward causal reasoning of BN can get the conditional probability distribution of the system under considering the uncertainty;the backward diagnosis reasoning of BN can recognize the weak links in system, so it is valuable for improving the system reliability.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.60504033)
文摘In the paper, an iterative method is presented to the optimal control of batch processes. Generally it is very difficult to acquire an accurate mechanistic model for a batch process. Because support vector machine is powerful for the problems characterized by small samples, nonlinearity, high dimension and local minima, support vector regression models are developed for the optimal control of batch processes where end-point properties are required. The model parameters are selected within the Bayesian evidence framework. Based on the model, an iterative method is used to exploit the repetitive nature of batch processes to determine the optimal operating policy. Numerical simulation shows that the iterative optimal control can improve the process performance through iterations.
基金supported by National key research and development program(No.2022YFA1602404)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.12388102,12275338,12005280)the Key Laboratory of Nuclear Data foundation(No.JCKY2022201C152)。
文摘This study investigates photonuclear reaction(γ,n)cross-sections using Bayesian neural network(BNN)analysis.After determining the optimal network architecture,which features two hidden layers,each with 50 hidden nodes,training was conducted for 30,000 iterations to ensure comprehensive data capture.By analyzing the distribution of absolute errors positively correlated with the cross-section for the isotope 159Tb,as well as the relative errors unrelated to the cross-section,we confirmed that the network effectively captured the data features without overfitting.Comparison with the TENDL-2021 Database demonstrated the BNN's reliability in fitting photonuclear cross-sections with lower average errors.The predictions for nuclei with single and double giant dipole resonance peak cross-sections,the accurate determination of the photoneutron reaction threshold in the low-energy region,and the precise description of trends in the high-energy cross-sections further demonstrate the network's generalization ability on the validation set.This can be attributed to the consistency of the training data.By using consistent training sets from different laboratories,Bayesian neural networks can predict nearby unknown cross-sections based on existing laboratory data,thereby estimating the potential differences between other laboratories'existing data and their own measurement results.Experimental measurements of photonuclear reactions on the newly constructed SLEGS beamline will contribute to clarifying the differences in cross-sections within the existing data.
文摘SVM handles classification problem only considering samples themselves and the classification effect depends on the characteristics of the training samples but not the current information of classified problem.From the phenomena of data crossing in systems,this paper improves the classification effect of SVM by adding the prior probability item reflecting the classified problem information into the decision function,which fuses the Bayesian criterion into SVM.The detailed deducing process and realizing steps of the algorithm are put forward.It is verified through two instances.The results showthat the new algorithm has better effect than the traditional SVM algorithm,and its robustness and sensitivity are all improved.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.12105080 and 12375123)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2023M731015)Natural Science Foundation of Henan Province(No.242300422048).
文摘A machine learning approach based on Bayesian neural networks was developed to predict the complete fusion cross-sections of weakly bound nuclei.This method was trained and validated using 475 experimental data points from 39 reaction systems induced by ^(6,7)Li,^(9)Be,and ^(10)B.The constructed Bayesian neural network demonstrated a high degree of accuracy in evaluating complete fusion cross-sections.By comparing the predicted cross-sections with those obtained from a single-barrier penetration model,the suppression effect of ^(6,7)Li and ^(9)Be with a stable nucleus was systematically analyzed.In the cases of ^(6)Li and ^(7)Li,less suppression was predicted for relatively light-mass targets than for heavy-mass targets,and a notably distinct dependence relationship was identified,suggesting that the predominant breakup mechanisms might change in different mass target regions.In addition,minimum suppression factors were predicted to occur near target nuclei with neutron-closed shell.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 52074258, 41941018, and U21A20153)
文摘Based on data from the Jilin Water Diversion Tunnels from the Songhua River(China),an improved and real-time prediction method optimized by multi-algorithm for tunnel boring machine(TBM)cutter-head torque is presented.Firstly,a function excluding invalid and abnormal data is established to distinguish TBM operating state,and a feature selection method based on the SelectKBest algorithm is proposed.Accordingly,ten features that are most closely related to the cutter-head torque are selected as input variables,which,in descending order of influence,include the sum of motor torque,cutter-head power,sum of motor power,sum of motor current,advance rate,cutter-head pressure,total thrust force,penetration rate,cutter-head rotational velocity,and field penetration index.Secondly,a real-time cutterhead torque prediction model’s structure is developed,based on the bidirectional long short-term memory(BLSTM)network integrating the dropout algorithm to prevent overfitting.Then,an algorithm to optimize hyperparameters of model based on Bayesian and cross-validation is proposed.Early stopping and checkpoint algorithms are integrated to optimize the training process.Finally,a BLSTMbased real-time cutter-head torque prediction model is developed,which fully utilizes the previous time-series tunneling information.The mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of the model in the verification section is 7.3%,implying that the presented model is suitable for real-time cutter-head torque prediction.Furthermore,an incremental learning method based on the above base model is introduced to improve the adaptability of the model during the TBM tunneling.Comparison of the prediction performance between the base and incremental learning models in the same tunneling section shows that:(1)the MAPE of the predicted results of the BLSTM-based real-time cutter-head torque prediction model remains below 10%,and both the coefficient of determination(R^(2))and correlation coefficient(r)between measured and predicted values exceed 0.95;and(2)the incremental learning method is suitable for realtime cutter-head torque prediction and can effectively improve the prediction accuracy and generalization capacity of the model during the excavation process.
基金the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2018YFB0703600)Shenzhen Key Projects of Long-Term Support Plan (No. 20200925164021002)。
文摘Recent years have witnessed a continuous discovering of new thermoelectric materials which has experienced a paradigm shift from try-and-error efforts to experience-based discovering and first-principles calculation. However, both the experiment and first-principles calculation deriving routes to determine a new compound are time and resources consuming. Here, we demonstrated a machine learning approach to discover new M_(2)X_(3)-type thermoelectric materials with only the composition information. According to the classic Bi_(2)Te_(3) material, we constructed an M_(2)X_(3)-type thermoelectric material library with 720 compounds by using isoelectronic substitution, in which only 101 compounds have crystalline structure information in the Inorganic Crystal Structure Database(ICSD) and Materials Project(MP) database. A model based on the random forest(RF) algorithm plus Bayesian optimization was used to explore the underlying principles to determine the crystal structures from the known compounds. The physical properties of constituent elements(such as atomic mass, electronegativity, ionic radius) were used to define the feature of the compounds with a general formula ^(1)M^(2)M^(1)X^(2)X^(3)X(^(1)M +^(2)M:^(1)X +^(2)X+^(3)X = 2:3). The primary goal is to find new thermoelectric materials with the same rhombohedral structure as Bi_(2)Te_(3) by machine learning.The final trained RF model showed a high accuracy of 91% on the prediction of rhombohedral compounds. Finally, we selected four important features to proceed with the polynomial fitting with the prediction results from the RF model and used the acquired polynomial function to make further discoveries outside the pre-defined material library.
基金This work was supported by the National Key Fundamental Research Project of China (2002cb312200) ,the National High TechnologyResearch and Development Program of China (2002AA412010) , and in part supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(60575036)
文摘To deal with multi-source multi-class classification problems, the method of combining multiple multi-class probability support vector machines (MPSVMs) using Bayesian theory is proposed in this paper. The MPSVMs are designed by mapping the output of standard support vector machines into a calibrated posterior probability by using a learned sigmoid function and then combining these learned binary-class probability SVMs. Two Bayes based methods for combining multiple MPSVMs are applied to improve the performance of classification. Our proposed methods are applied to fault diagnosis of a diesel engine. The experimental results show that the new methods can improve the accuracy and robustness of fault diagnosis.
