The effect of treatment on patient’s outcome can easily be determined through the impact of the treatment on biological events. Observing the treatment for patients for a certain period of time can help in determinin...The effect of treatment on patient’s outcome can easily be determined through the impact of the treatment on biological events. Observing the treatment for patients for a certain period of time can help in determining whether there is any change in the biomarker of the patient. It is important to study how the biomarker changes due to treatment and whether for different individuals located in separate centers can be clustered together since they might have different distributions. The study is motivated by a Bayesian non-parametric mixture model, which is more flexible when compared to the Bayesian Parametric models and is capable of borrowing information across different centers allowing them to be grouped together. To this end, this research modeled Biological markers taking into consideration the Surrogate markers. The study employed the nested Dirichlet process prior, which is easily peaceable on different distributions for several centers, with centers from the same Dirichlet process component clustered automatically together. The study sampled from the posterior by use of Markov chain Monte carol algorithm. The model is illustrated using a simulation study to see how it performs on simulated data. Clearly, from the simulation study it was clear that, the model was capable of clustering data into different clusters.展开更多
Soil salinization is a major abiotic stress that hampers plant development and significantly reduces agricultural productivity,posing a serious challenge to global food security.Akebia trifoliata(Thunb.)Koidz,a specie...Soil salinization is a major abiotic stress that hampers plant development and significantly reduces agricultural productivity,posing a serious challenge to global food security.Akebia trifoliata(Thunb.)Koidz,a species within the genus Akebia Decne.,is valued for its use in food,traditionalmedicine,oil production,and as an ornamental plant.Curcumin,widely recognized for its pharmacological properties including anti-cancer,anti-neuroinflammatory,and anti-fibrotic effects,has recently drawn interest for its potential roles in plant stress responses.However,its impact on plant tolerance to saline-alkali stress remains poorly understood.In this study,the effects of curcumin on saline-alkali resistance in A.trifoliata were examined by subjecting plants to a saline-alkali solution containing 150 mmol/L sodium ions(a mixture of Na_(2)SO_(4),Na_(2)CO_(3),and NaHCO_(3)).Curcumin treatment under these stress conditions leads to anatomical improvements in leaf structure.Furthermore,A.trifoliatamaintained a favorable Na^(+)/K^(+)ratio through increased potassium uptake and reduced sodium accumulation.Biochemical analysis revealed elevated levels of proline,soluble sugars,and soluble proteins,along with improved activities of antioxidant enzymes such as superoxide dismutase(SOD),catalase(CAT),and peroxidase(POD).Similarly,the concentrations of hydrogen peroxide(H_(2)O_(2))and malondialdehyde(MDA)were significantly reduced.Transcriptome analysis under saline-alkali stress conditions showed that curcumin influenced seven keymetabolic pathways annotated in the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes(KEGG)database,with differentially expressed unigenes primarily enriched in transcription factor families such as MYB,AP2/ERF,NAC,bHLH,and C2C2.Moreover,eight differentially expressed genes(DEGs)associated with plant hormone signal transduction were linked to the auxin and brassinosteroid pathways,critical for cell elongation and plant growth.These findings indicate that curcumin increases saline-alkali stress tolerance in A.trifoliata by modulating physiological,biochemical,and transcriptional responses,ultimately supporting improved growth under adverse conditions.展开更多
Accurate retrieval of atmospheric vertical profiles is critical for improving weather prediction and climate monitoring.However,the complexity of atmospheric processes in cloudy regions poses challenges compared to th...Accurate retrieval of atmospheric vertical profiles is critical for improving weather prediction and climate monitoring.However,the complexity of atmospheric processes in cloudy regions poses challenges compared to those of clear sky scenarios.This study presents a novel framework that integrates Bayesian optimization and machine learning approaches to retrieve atmospheric vertical profiles—including temperature,humidity,ozone concentration,cloud fraction,ice water content(IWC),and liquid water content(LWC)—from hyperspectral infrared observations.Specifically,a Bayesian method was used to refine ERA5 reanalysis data by minimizing brightness temperature(BT)discrepancies against FY-4B Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder(GIIRS)observations,generating a high-quality profile database(~2.8 million profiles)across diverse weather systems.The optimized profiles improve radiative consistency,reducing BT biases from>40 K to<10 K in cloudy regions.To further overcome the limitations of the Bayesian method,we developed a Transformer-Resnet hybrid model(TERNet),which achieved superior performance with RMSE values of 1.61 K(temperature),5.77%(humidity),and 2.25×10^(–6)/6.09×10^(–6)kg kg^(–1)(IWC/LWC)across the entire vertical levels in all-sky conditions.The TERNet outperforms both ERA5 in cloud parameter retrieval and the GIIRS L2 product in thermodynamic profiling.Independent verification with radiosonde and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations(CALIPSO)datasets confirms the framework's reliability across various meteorological regimes.This work demonstrates the capability of combining physics-informed Bayesian methods with data-driven machine learning to fully exploit hyperspectral IR data.展开更多
The integrated nested Laplace approximation(INLA)algorithm provides a computationally efficient approach for approximate Bayesian inference,overcoming the limitations of traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)metho...The integrated nested Laplace approximation(INLA)algorithm provides a computationally efficient approach for approximate Bayesian inference,overcoming the limitations of traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)methods.This paper reviews INLA algorithm and provides a systematic review of six key books that explore the theoretical foundations,practical implementations,and diverse applications of INLA.These six books cover spatial and spatio-temporal modelling,general Bayesian inference,SPDE-based spatial analysis,geospatial health data,regression modelling,and dynamic time series.In addition,these books highlight the versatility of INLA method in handling complex models while maintaining high computational efficiency.This paper begins with an introduction to the INLA method and algorithm,followed by a systematic review of six key publications in the field.展开更多
The reliable operation of power grid secondary equipment is an important guarantee for the safety and stability of the power system.However,various defects could be produced in the secondary equipment during longtermo...The reliable operation of power grid secondary equipment is an important guarantee for the safety and stability of the power system.However,various defects could be produced in the secondary equipment during longtermoperation.The complex relationship between the defect phenomenon andmulti-layer causes and the probabilistic influence of secondary equipment cannot be described through knowledge extraction and fusion technology by existing methods,which limits the real-time and accuracy of defect identification.Therefore,a defect recognition method based on the Bayesian network and knowledge graph fusion is proposed.The defect data of secondary equipment is transformed into the structured knowledge graph through knowledge extraction and fusion technology.The knowledge graph of power grid secondary equipment is mapped to the Bayesian network framework,combined with historical defect data,and introduced Noisy-OR nodes.The prior and conditional probabilities of the Bayesian network are then reasonably assigned to build a model that reflects the probability dependence between defect phenomena and potential causes in power grid secondary equipment.Defect identification of power grid secondary equipment is achieved by defect subgraph search based on the knowledge graph,and defect inference based on the Bayesian network.Practical application cases prove this method’s effectiveness in identifying secondary equipment defect causes,improving identification accuracy and efficiency.展开更多
Recommendation systems have become indispensable for providing tailored suggestions and capturing evolving user preferences based on interaction histories.The collaborative filtering(CF)model,which depends exclusively...Recommendation systems have become indispensable for providing tailored suggestions and capturing evolving user preferences based on interaction histories.The collaborative filtering(CF)model,which depends exclusively on user-item interactions,commonly encounters challenges,including the cold-start problem and an inability to effectively capture the sequential and temporal characteristics of user behavior.This paper introduces a personalized recommendation system that combines deep learning techniques with Bayesian Personalized Ranking(BPR)optimization to address these limitations.With the strong support of Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)networks,we apply it to identify sequential dependencies of user behavior and then incorporate an attention mechanism to improve the prioritization of relevant items,thereby enhancing recommendations based on the hybrid feedback of the user and its interaction patterns.The proposed system is empirically evaluated using publicly available datasets from movie and music,and we evaluate the performance against standard recommendation models,including Popularity,BPR,ItemKNN,FPMC,LightGCN,GRU4Rec,NARM,SASRec,and BERT4Rec.The results demonstrate that our proposed framework consistently achieves high outcomes in terms of HitRate,NDCG,MRR,and Precision at K=100,with scores of(0.6763,0.1892,0.0796,0.0068)on MovieLens-100K,(0.6826,0.1920,0.0813,0.0068)on MovieLens-1M,and(0.7937,0.3701,0.2756,0.0078)on Last.fm.The results show an average improvement of around 15%across all metrics compared to existing sequence models,proving that our framework ranks and recommends items more accurately.展开更多
This paper investigates the reliability of internal marine combustion engines using an integrated approach that combines Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)and Bayesian Networks(BN).FTA provides a structured,top-down method for ...This paper investigates the reliability of internal marine combustion engines using an integrated approach that combines Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)and Bayesian Networks(BN).FTA provides a structured,top-down method for identifying critical failure modes and their root causes,while BN introduces flexibility in probabilistic reasoning,enabling dynamic updates based on new evidence.This dual methodology overcomes the limitations of static FTA models,offering a comprehensive framework for system reliability analysis.Critical failures,including External Leakage(ELU),Failure to Start(FTS),and Overheating(OHE),were identified as key risks.By incorporating redundancy into high-risk components such as pumps and batteries,the likelihood of these failures was significantly reduced.For instance,redundant pumps reduced the probability of ELU by 31.88%,while additional batteries decreased the occurrence of FTS by 36.45%.The results underscore the practical benefits of combining FTA and BN for enhancing system reliability,particularly in maritime applications where operational safety and efficiency are critical.This research provides valuable insights for maintenance planning and highlights the importance of redundancy in critical systems,especially as the industry transitions toward more autonomous vessels.展开更多
With the deep integration of smart manufacturing and IoT technologies,higher demands are placed on the intelligence and real-time performance of industrial equipment fault detection.For industrial fans,base bolt loose...With the deep integration of smart manufacturing and IoT technologies,higher demands are placed on the intelligence and real-time performance of industrial equipment fault detection.For industrial fans,base bolt loosening faults are difficult to identify through conventional spectrum analysis,and the extreme scarcity of fault data leads to limited training datasets,making traditional deep learning methods inaccurate in fault identification and incapable of detecting loosening severity.This paper employs Bayesian Learning by training on a small fault dataset collected from the actual operation of axial-flow fans in a factory to obtain posterior distribution.This method proposes specific data processing approaches and a configuration of Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network(BCNN).It can effectively improve the model’s generalization ability.Experimental results demonstrate high detection accuracy and alignment with real-world applications,offering practical significance and reference value for industrial fan bolt loosening detection under data-limited conditions.展开更多
Leveraging high-precision lattice QCD data on the equation of state and baryon number susceptibility at a vanishing chemical potential,we constructed a Bayesian holographic QCD model and systematically analyzed the th...Leveraging high-precision lattice QCD data on the equation of state and baryon number susceptibility at a vanishing chemical potential,we constructed a Bayesian holographic QCD model and systematically analyzed the thermodynamic properties of heavy quarkonium in QCD matter under varying temperatures and chemical potentials.We computed the quark-antiquark interquark distance,potential energy,entropy,binding energy,and internal energy.We present detailed posterior distribution results of the thermodynamic quantities of heavy quarkonium,including maximum a posteriori(MAP)value estimates and 95%confidence levels(CL).Through numerical simulations and theoretical analysis,we find that an increase in the temperature and chemical potential reduces the quark distance,thereby facilitating the dissociation of heavy quarkonium and leading to a suppressed potential energy.The increase in temperature and chemical potential also raises the entropy and entropy force,further accelerating the dissociation of heavy quarkonium.The calculated results of binding energy indicate that a higher temperature and chemical potential enhance the tendency of heavy quarkonium to dissociate into free quarks.The internal energy also increases with rising temperature and chemical potential.These findings provide significant theoretical insights into the properties of strongly interacting matter under extreme conditions and lay a solid foundation for the interpretation and validation of future experimental data.Finally,we also present the results for the free energy,entropy,and internal energy of a single quark.展开更多
Inverse design of advanced materials represents a pivotal challenge in materials science.Leveraging the latent space of Variational Autoencoders(VAEs)for material optimization has emerged as a significant advancement ...Inverse design of advanced materials represents a pivotal challenge in materials science.Leveraging the latent space of Variational Autoencoders(VAEs)for material optimization has emerged as a significant advancement in the field of material inverse design.However,VAEs are inherently prone to generating blurred images,posing challenges for precise inverse design and microstructure manufacturing.While increasing the dimensionality of the VAE latent space can mitigate reconstruction blurriness to some extent,it simultaneously imposes a substantial burden on target optimization due to an excessively high search space.To address these limitations,this study adopts a Variational Autoencoder guided Conditional Diffusion Generative Model(VAE-CDGM)framework integrated with Bayesian optimization to achieve the inverse design of composite materials with targeted mechanical properties.The VAE-CDGM model synergizes the strengths of VAEs and Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models(DDPM),enabling the generation of high-quality,sharp images while preserving a manipulable latent space.To accommodate varying dimensional requirements of the latent space,two optimization strategies are proposed.When the latent space dimensionality is excessively high,SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)sensitivity analysis is employed to identify critical latent features for optimization within a reduced subspace.Conversely,direct optimization is performed in the low-dimensional latent space of VAE-CDGM when dimensionality is modest.The results demonstrate that both strategies accurately achieve the targeted design of composite materials while circumventing the blurred reconstruction flaws of VAEs,which offers a novel pathway for the precise design of advanced materials.展开更多
A performance improvement model of research and development(R&D)institutions based on evolutionary game and Bayesian network is proposed.First,the nature and performance factors of new R&D institutions are sys...A performance improvement model of research and development(R&D)institutions based on evolutionary game and Bayesian network is proposed.First,the nature and performance factors of new R&D institutions are systematically analyzed,the appropriate factor model is found,and the sharing of performance benefits between institutions and employees,the change in distribution proportion,and the risk of institutional improvement and employee cooperation are considered.Second,based on the mechanism improvement and employee cooperation,the payment matrix is given and evolutionary game analysis is carried out to obtain a stable and balanced institutional improvement probability and employee cooperation probability.These two probability values are substituted into the Bayesian network model of performance improvement of new R&D institutions,and the posterior probability of performance improvement is predicted by Bayesian network reasoning and diagnosis to find effective improvement measures.Finally,practical case analysis is given to verify the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.展开更多
The rapid identification of γ-emitting radionuclides with low activity levels in public areas is crucial for nuclear safety.However,classical methods rely on full-energy peaks in the integral spectrum,requiring suffi...The rapid identification of γ-emitting radionuclides with low activity levels in public areas is crucial for nuclear safety.However,classical methods rely on full-energy peaks in the integral spectrum,requiring sufficient count accumulation for evaluation,thereby limiting response time.The sequential Bayesian approach,which utilizes prior information and considers both photon energies and interarrival times,can significantly enhance the performance of radionuclides identification.This study proposes a theoretical optimization method for the traditional sequential Bayesian approach.Each photon is processed sequentially,and the corresponding posterior probability is updated in real time using a noninformative prior from the Bayesian theory.By comparing the posterior probabilities of the background and radionuclides based on the energy variance and time interval,the type of γ-rays can be identified(background characteristic γ-rays,Compton plateaus γ-rays,or radionuclide-specific characteristic γ-rays).By integrating the information from these multiple characteristic γ-rays,the presence and type of radionuclides were determined based on the final decision function and a set threshold.Based on theoretical research,verification experiments were conducted using a LaBr_(3)(Ce)detector in both low-and natural background radiation environments with typical radionuclides(^(137)Cs,^(60)Co,and ^(133)Ba).The results show that this approach can identify ^(137)Cs in 7.9 s and 8.5 s(source dose rate contribution:approximately 6.5×10^(−3)μGy/h),^(60)Co in 8.1 s and 9.8 s(approximately 4.8×10^(−2)μGy/h),and ^(133)Ba in 4.05 s and 5.99 s(approximately 3.4×10^(−2)μGy/h)under low and natural background radiation,respectively,with a miss rate below 0.01%.This demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach for fast radionuclides identification,even at low activity levels and highlights its potential for enhancing public safety in diverse radiation environments.展开更多
Research on neutron-induced fission product yields of^(232)Th is crucial for understanding the competition between symmetric and asymmetric fission in actinide nuclei.However,obtaining complete isotopic yield distribu...Research on neutron-induced fission product yields of^(232)Th is crucial for understanding the competition between symmetric and asymmetric fission in actinide nuclei.However,obtaining complete isotopic yield distributions over a wide range of neutron energies remains a challenge.In this study,a Bayesian neural network model was developed to predict the independent(IND)and cumulative fission yields of^(232)Th under neutron irradiation at various incident energies.To address the limited availability of experimental data for the analysis of IND mass distributions,we substituted mass-number-based yields with the yields of specific isotopes.Furthermore,physical phenomena or quantities,such as the odd-even effect and isospin,were introduced as constraints to enhance the physical consistency of the predictions.The impact of these constraints was evaluated using mass-chain yield distributions and their dependence on energy.Incorporating physical constraints significantly improves the prediction accuracy,yielding more reliable and physically meaningful fission yield data for nuclear physics and reactor design applications.展开更多
The probabilistic stability evolution analysis of reservoir bank slopes is a crucial aspect of risk assessment,with core challenges including the consideration of deformation mechanisms and accurate determination of m...The probabilistic stability evolution analysis of reservoir bank slopes is a crucial aspect of risk assessment,with core challenges including the consideration of deformation mechanisms and accurate determination of mechanical parameters.In this study,a novel time-varying reliability analysis framework based on sequential Bayesian updating of mechanical parameters is proposed.The inverse parameters account for damage time-dependent behavior,incorporating water effect and a strain-driven softening-hardening process that depends on sliding states.The likelihood function is enhanced to simultaneously consider observation error,surrogate model prediction error,and model structural error,with the introduction of physical penalty.Exploration of the high-dimensional parameter space is achieved via the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo(HMC)method and the physics knowledge-based time-dependent deformation surrogate model.The time-varying reliability analysis of the slope is performed using the multi-grid method.Taking a reservoir bank slope as a case study,the sequential updating of 12 mechanical parameters is conducted based on deformation time series from 16 monitoring points,thereby validating the proposed framework.The results indicate that the proposed framework effectively captures the posterior distribution of mechanical parameters,with the case slope remaining in a critically stable state after overall sliding,showing a high failure probability.Introducing model structural error can reduce parameter compensation,and a reasonable sequential updating step size can improve inversion accuracy.展开更多
Coastal sediment type map has been widely used in marine economic and engineering activities, but the traditional mapping methods had some limitations due to their intrinsic assumption or subjectivity. In this paper, ...Coastal sediment type map has been widely used in marine economic and engineering activities, but the traditional mapping methods had some limitations due to their intrinsic assumption or subjectivity. In this paper, a non-parametric indicator Kriging method has been proposed for generating coastal sediment map. The method can effectively avoid mapping subjectivity, has no special requirements for the sample data to meet second-order stationary or normal distribution, and can also provide useful information on the quantitative evaluation of mapping uncertainty. The application of the method in the southern sea area of Lianyungang showed that much more convincing mapping results could be obtained compared with the traditional methods such as IDW, Kriging and Voronoi diagram under the same condition, so the proposed method was applicable with great utilization value.展开更多
为明确机场服务质量的影响因素及旅客对机场服务质量满意程度,提高机场服务质量,运用逼近理想解排序法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)与贝叶斯网络结合的评估模型,建立大型运输机场服务...为明确机场服务质量的影响因素及旅客对机场服务质量满意程度,提高机场服务质量,运用逼近理想解排序法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)与贝叶斯网络结合的评估模型,建立大型运输机场服务质量评价指标体系。运用双向推理诊断模型评价机场服务质量,对机场满意度正向推理以及影响指标的反向敏感性诊断。对旅客机场服务质量满意度以及影响因素进行深入研究,并以某大型运输机场为例验证方法的可行性。研究结果表明,旅客对该机场的服务质量满意概率为0.67,一般满意概率为0.21。反向诊断得到行李提取系统、进出机场综合交通与城市连接的便利性、安检服务效率等影响因素敏感性较高。为机场科学制定提升服务质量措施提供理论基础。展开更多
Short-term traffic flow is one of the core technologies to realize traffic flow guidance. In this article, in view of the characteristics that the traffic flow changes repeatedly, a short-term traffic flow forecasting...Short-term traffic flow is one of the core technologies to realize traffic flow guidance. In this article, in view of the characteristics that the traffic flow changes repeatedly, a short-term traffic flow forecasting method based on a three-layer K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression algorithm is proposed. Specifically, two screening layers based on shape similarity were introduced in K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression method, and the forecasting results were output using the weighted averaging on the reciprocal values of the shape similarity distances and the most-similar-point distance adjustment method. According to the experimental results, the proposed algorithm has improved the predictive ability of the traditional K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression method, and greatly enhanced the accuracy and real-time performance of short-term traffic flow forecasting.展开更多
Detecting moving objects in the stationary background is an important problem in visual surveillance systems.However,the traditional background subtraction method fails when the background is not completely stationary...Detecting moving objects in the stationary background is an important problem in visual surveillance systems.However,the traditional background subtraction method fails when the background is not completely stationary and involves certain dynamic changes.In this paper,according to the basic steps of the background subtraction method,a novel non-parametric moving object detection method is proposed based on an improved ant colony algorithm by using the Markov random field.Concretely,the contributions are as follows:1)A new nonparametric strategy is utilized to model the background,based on an improved kernel density estimation;this approach uses an adaptive bandwidth,and the fused features combine the colours,gradients and positions.2)A Markov random field method based on this adaptive background model via the constraint of the spatial context is proposed to extract objects.3)The posterior function is maximized efficiently by using an improved ant colony system algorithm.Extensive experiments show that the proposed method demonstrates a better performance than many existing state-of-the-art methods.展开更多
Spatial interpolation has been frequently encountered in earth sciences and engineering.A reasonable appraisal of subsurface heterogeneity plays a significant role in planning,risk assessment and decision making for g...Spatial interpolation has been frequently encountered in earth sciences and engineering.A reasonable appraisal of subsurface heterogeneity plays a significant role in planning,risk assessment and decision making for geotechnical practice.Geostatistics is commonly used to interpolate spatially varying properties at un-sampled locations from scatter measurements.However,successful application of classic geostatistical models requires prior characterization of spatial auto-correlation structures,which poses a great challenge for unexperienced engineers,particularly when only limited measurements are available.Data-driven machine learning methods,such as radial basis function network(RBFN),require minimal human intervention and provide effective alternatives for spatial interpolation of non-stationary and non-Gaussian data,particularly when measurements are sparse.Conventional RBFN,however,is direction independent(i.e.isotropic)and cannot quantify prediction uncertainty in spatial interpolation.In this study,an ensemble RBFN method is proposed that not only allows geotechnical anisotropy to be properly incorporated,but also quantifies uncertainty in spatial interpolation.The proposed method is illustrated using numerical examples of cone penetration test(CPT)data,which involve interpolation of a 2D CPT cross-section from limited continuous 1D CPT soundings in the vertical direction.In addition,a comparative study is performed to benchmark the proposed ensemble RBFN with two other non-parametric data-driven approaches,namely,Multiple Point Statistics(MPS)and Bayesian Compressive Sensing(BCS).The results reveal that the proposed ensemble RBFN provides a better estimation of spatial patterns and associated prediction uncertainty at un-sampled locations when a reasonable amount of data is available as input.Moreover,the prediction accuracy of all the three methods improves as the number of measurements increases,and vice versa.It is also found that BCS prediction is less sensitive to the number of measurement data and outperforms RBFN and MPS when only limited point observations are available.展开更多
文摘The effect of treatment on patient’s outcome can easily be determined through the impact of the treatment on biological events. Observing the treatment for patients for a certain period of time can help in determining whether there is any change in the biomarker of the patient. It is important to study how the biomarker changes due to treatment and whether for different individuals located in separate centers can be clustered together since they might have different distributions. The study is motivated by a Bayesian non-parametric mixture model, which is more flexible when compared to the Bayesian Parametric models and is capable of borrowing information across different centers allowing them to be grouped together. To this end, this research modeled Biological markers taking into consideration the Surrogate markers. The study employed the nested Dirichlet process prior, which is easily peaceable on different distributions for several centers, with centers from the same Dirichlet process component clustered automatically together. The study sampled from the posterior by use of Markov chain Monte carol algorithm. The model is illustrated using a simulation study to see how it performs on simulated data. Clearly, from the simulation study it was clear that, the model was capable of clustering data into different clusters.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Number:32060645)The Joint Special Project(Key Project)of Yunnan Province Local Undergraduate University(202101BA070001-036)+2 种基金The Joint Special Project(Surface Project)of Yunnan Province Local Undergraduate University(202101BA070001-172)the Science Research Fund Project for Education Department of Yunnan Province(Numbers:2023Y0876,2023Y0860,2023J0828)the Basic Research Special Project for Science and Technology Department of Yunnan Provincial(Number:202301AU070137).
文摘Soil salinization is a major abiotic stress that hampers plant development and significantly reduces agricultural productivity,posing a serious challenge to global food security.Akebia trifoliata(Thunb.)Koidz,a species within the genus Akebia Decne.,is valued for its use in food,traditionalmedicine,oil production,and as an ornamental plant.Curcumin,widely recognized for its pharmacological properties including anti-cancer,anti-neuroinflammatory,and anti-fibrotic effects,has recently drawn interest for its potential roles in plant stress responses.However,its impact on plant tolerance to saline-alkali stress remains poorly understood.In this study,the effects of curcumin on saline-alkali resistance in A.trifoliata were examined by subjecting plants to a saline-alkali solution containing 150 mmol/L sodium ions(a mixture of Na_(2)SO_(4),Na_(2)CO_(3),and NaHCO_(3)).Curcumin treatment under these stress conditions leads to anatomical improvements in leaf structure.Furthermore,A.trifoliatamaintained a favorable Na^(+)/K^(+)ratio through increased potassium uptake and reduced sodium accumulation.Biochemical analysis revealed elevated levels of proline,soluble sugars,and soluble proteins,along with improved activities of antioxidant enzymes such as superoxide dismutase(SOD),catalase(CAT),and peroxidase(POD).Similarly,the concentrations of hydrogen peroxide(H_(2)O_(2))and malondialdehyde(MDA)were significantly reduced.Transcriptome analysis under saline-alkali stress conditions showed that curcumin influenced seven keymetabolic pathways annotated in the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes(KEGG)database,with differentially expressed unigenes primarily enriched in transcription factor families such as MYB,AP2/ERF,NAC,bHLH,and C2C2.Moreover,eight differentially expressed genes(DEGs)associated with plant hormone signal transduction were linked to the auxin and brassinosteroid pathways,critical for cell elongation and plant growth.These findings indicate that curcumin increases saline-alkali stress tolerance in A.trifoliata by modulating physiological,biochemical,and transcriptional responses,ultimately supporting improved growth under adverse conditions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant U2442219Fengyun Satellite Application Pioneer Program(2023)Special Initiative on Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP)Applications,the Civil Aerospace Technology Pre-Research Project(D040405)the Joint Funds of the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.LZJMZ23D050003。
文摘Accurate retrieval of atmospheric vertical profiles is critical for improving weather prediction and climate monitoring.However,the complexity of atmospheric processes in cloudy regions poses challenges compared to those of clear sky scenarios.This study presents a novel framework that integrates Bayesian optimization and machine learning approaches to retrieve atmospheric vertical profiles—including temperature,humidity,ozone concentration,cloud fraction,ice water content(IWC),and liquid water content(LWC)—from hyperspectral infrared observations.Specifically,a Bayesian method was used to refine ERA5 reanalysis data by minimizing brightness temperature(BT)discrepancies against FY-4B Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder(GIIRS)observations,generating a high-quality profile database(~2.8 million profiles)across diverse weather systems.The optimized profiles improve radiative consistency,reducing BT biases from>40 K to<10 K in cloudy regions.To further overcome the limitations of the Bayesian method,we developed a Transformer-Resnet hybrid model(TERNet),which achieved superior performance with RMSE values of 1.61 K(temperature),5.77%(humidity),and 2.25×10^(–6)/6.09×10^(–6)kg kg^(–1)(IWC/LWC)across the entire vertical levels in all-sky conditions.The TERNet outperforms both ERA5 in cloud parameter retrieval and the GIIRS L2 product in thermodynamic profiling.Independent verification with radiosonde and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations(CALIPSO)datasets confirms the framework's reliability across various meteorological regimes.This work demonstrates the capability of combining physics-informed Bayesian methods with data-driven machine learning to fully exploit hyperspectral IR data.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 12001266]the Humanities and Social Science Projects ofMinistry of Education of China[grant number 19YJCZH166]supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 12271168 and 12531013].
文摘The integrated nested Laplace approximation(INLA)algorithm provides a computationally efficient approach for approximate Bayesian inference,overcoming the limitations of traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)methods.This paper reviews INLA algorithm and provides a systematic review of six key books that explore the theoretical foundations,practical implementations,and diverse applications of INLA.These six books cover spatial and spatio-temporal modelling,general Bayesian inference,SPDE-based spatial analysis,geospatial health data,regression modelling,and dynamic time series.In addition,these books highlight the versatility of INLA method in handling complex models while maintaining high computational efficiency.This paper begins with an introduction to the INLA method and algorithm,followed by a systematic review of six key publications in the field.
基金supported by the State Grid Southwest Branch Project“Research on Defect Diagnosis and Early Warning Technology of Relay Protection and Safety Automation Devices Based on Multi-Source Heterogeneous Defect Data”.
文摘The reliable operation of power grid secondary equipment is an important guarantee for the safety and stability of the power system.However,various defects could be produced in the secondary equipment during longtermoperation.The complex relationship between the defect phenomenon andmulti-layer causes and the probabilistic influence of secondary equipment cannot be described through knowledge extraction and fusion technology by existing methods,which limits the real-time and accuracy of defect identification.Therefore,a defect recognition method based on the Bayesian network and knowledge graph fusion is proposed.The defect data of secondary equipment is transformed into the structured knowledge graph through knowledge extraction and fusion technology.The knowledge graph of power grid secondary equipment is mapped to the Bayesian network framework,combined with historical defect data,and introduced Noisy-OR nodes.The prior and conditional probabilities of the Bayesian network are then reasonably assigned to build a model that reflects the probability dependence between defect phenomena and potential causes in power grid secondary equipment.Defect identification of power grid secondary equipment is achieved by defect subgraph search based on the knowledge graph,and defect inference based on the Bayesian network.Practical application cases prove this method’s effectiveness in identifying secondary equipment defect causes,improving identification accuracy and efficiency.
基金funded by Soonchunhyang University,Grant Number 20250029。
文摘Recommendation systems have become indispensable for providing tailored suggestions and capturing evolving user preferences based on interaction histories.The collaborative filtering(CF)model,which depends exclusively on user-item interactions,commonly encounters challenges,including the cold-start problem and an inability to effectively capture the sequential and temporal characteristics of user behavior.This paper introduces a personalized recommendation system that combines deep learning techniques with Bayesian Personalized Ranking(BPR)optimization to address these limitations.With the strong support of Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)networks,we apply it to identify sequential dependencies of user behavior and then incorporate an attention mechanism to improve the prioritization of relevant items,thereby enhancing recommendations based on the hybrid feedback of the user and its interaction patterns.The proposed system is empirically evaluated using publicly available datasets from movie and music,and we evaluate the performance against standard recommendation models,including Popularity,BPR,ItemKNN,FPMC,LightGCN,GRU4Rec,NARM,SASRec,and BERT4Rec.The results demonstrate that our proposed framework consistently achieves high outcomes in terms of HitRate,NDCG,MRR,and Precision at K=100,with scores of(0.6763,0.1892,0.0796,0.0068)on MovieLens-100K,(0.6826,0.1920,0.0813,0.0068)on MovieLens-1M,and(0.7937,0.3701,0.2756,0.0078)on Last.fm.The results show an average improvement of around 15%across all metrics compared to existing sequence models,proving that our framework ranks and recommends items more accurately.
基金supported by Istanbul Technical University(Project No.45698)supported through the“Young Researchers’Career Development Project-training of doctoral students”of the Croatian Science Foundation.
文摘This paper investigates the reliability of internal marine combustion engines using an integrated approach that combines Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)and Bayesian Networks(BN).FTA provides a structured,top-down method for identifying critical failure modes and their root causes,while BN introduces flexibility in probabilistic reasoning,enabling dynamic updates based on new evidence.This dual methodology overcomes the limitations of static FTA models,offering a comprehensive framework for system reliability analysis.Critical failures,including External Leakage(ELU),Failure to Start(FTS),and Overheating(OHE),were identified as key risks.By incorporating redundancy into high-risk components such as pumps and batteries,the likelihood of these failures was significantly reduced.For instance,redundant pumps reduced the probability of ELU by 31.88%,while additional batteries decreased the occurrence of FTS by 36.45%.The results underscore the practical benefits of combining FTA and BN for enhancing system reliability,particularly in maritime applications where operational safety and efficiency are critical.This research provides valuable insights for maintenance planning and highlights the importance of redundancy in critical systems,especially as the industry transitions toward more autonomous vessels.
基金funded by the Zhejiang Provincial Key Science and Technology“LingYan”Project Foundation,grant number 2023C01145Zhejiang Gongshang University Higher Education Research Projects,grant number Xgy22028.
文摘With the deep integration of smart manufacturing and IoT technologies,higher demands are placed on the intelligence and real-time performance of industrial equipment fault detection.For industrial fans,base bolt loosening faults are difficult to identify through conventional spectrum analysis,and the extreme scarcity of fault data leads to limited training datasets,making traditional deep learning methods inaccurate in fault identification and incapable of detecting loosening severity.This paper employs Bayesian Learning by training on a small fault dataset collected from the actual operation of axial-flow fans in a factory to obtain posterior distribution.This method proposes specific data processing approaches and a configuration of Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network(BCNN).It can effectively improve the model’s generalization ability.Experimental results demonstrate high detection accuracy and alignment with real-world applications,offering practical significance and reference value for industrial fan bolt loosening detection under data-limited conditions.
基金supported in part by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFA1604900)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(Nos.12405154,12235016,12221005,12435009,12275104,92570117)+7 种基金the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDB34030000)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central UniversitiesOpen fund for Key Laboratories of the Ministry of Education(No.QLPL2024P01)CUHK-Shenzhen University Development Fund(Nos.UDF01003041 and UDF03003041)Shenzhen Peacock Fund(No.2023TC0007)Ministry of Science and Technology of China(No.2024YFA1611004)the European Union–Next Generation EU through the research(No.P2022Z4P4B)“SOPHYA-Sustainable Optimized PHYsics Algorithms:fundamental physics to build an advanced society”under the program PRIN 2022 PNRR of the Italian Ministero dell’Universitàe Ricerca(MUR)。
文摘Leveraging high-precision lattice QCD data on the equation of state and baryon number susceptibility at a vanishing chemical potential,we constructed a Bayesian holographic QCD model and systematically analyzed the thermodynamic properties of heavy quarkonium in QCD matter under varying temperatures and chemical potentials.We computed the quark-antiquark interquark distance,potential energy,entropy,binding energy,and internal energy.We present detailed posterior distribution results of the thermodynamic quantities of heavy quarkonium,including maximum a posteriori(MAP)value estimates and 95%confidence levels(CL).Through numerical simulations and theoretical analysis,we find that an increase in the temperature and chemical potential reduces the quark distance,thereby facilitating the dissociation of heavy quarkonium and leading to a suppressed potential energy.The increase in temperature and chemical potential also raises the entropy and entropy force,further accelerating the dissociation of heavy quarkonium.The calculated results of binding energy indicate that a higher temperature and chemical potential enhance the tendency of heavy quarkonium to dissociate into free quarks.The internal energy also increases with rising temperature and chemical potential.These findings provide significant theoretical insights into the properties of strongly interacting matter under extreme conditions and lay a solid foundation for the interpretation and validation of future experimental data.Finally,we also present the results for the free energy,entropy,and internal energy of a single quark.
文摘Inverse design of advanced materials represents a pivotal challenge in materials science.Leveraging the latent space of Variational Autoencoders(VAEs)for material optimization has emerged as a significant advancement in the field of material inverse design.However,VAEs are inherently prone to generating blurred images,posing challenges for precise inverse design and microstructure manufacturing.While increasing the dimensionality of the VAE latent space can mitigate reconstruction blurriness to some extent,it simultaneously imposes a substantial burden on target optimization due to an excessively high search space.To address these limitations,this study adopts a Variational Autoencoder guided Conditional Diffusion Generative Model(VAE-CDGM)framework integrated with Bayesian optimization to achieve the inverse design of composite materials with targeted mechanical properties.The VAE-CDGM model synergizes the strengths of VAEs and Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models(DDPM),enabling the generation of high-quality,sharp images while preserving a manipulable latent space.To accommodate varying dimensional requirements of the latent space,two optimization strategies are proposed.When the latent space dimensionality is excessively high,SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP)sensitivity analysis is employed to identify critical latent features for optimization within a reduced subspace.Conversely,direct optimization is performed in the low-dimensional latent space of VAE-CDGM when dimensionality is modest.The results demonstrate that both strategies accurately achieve the targeted design of composite materials while circumventing the blurred reconstruction flaws of VAEs,which offers a novel pathway for the precise design of advanced materials.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72071106)Jiangsu Provincial Social Science Fund(23EYA001)+1 种基金Jiangsu Provincial Education Science Planning Fund(Ba/2024/08)Jiangsu Higher Education Association Fund(24FYHLX090)。
文摘A performance improvement model of research and development(R&D)institutions based on evolutionary game and Bayesian network is proposed.First,the nature and performance factors of new R&D institutions are systematically analyzed,the appropriate factor model is found,and the sharing of performance benefits between institutions and employees,the change in distribution proportion,and the risk of institutional improvement and employee cooperation are considered.Second,based on the mechanism improvement and employee cooperation,the payment matrix is given and evolutionary game analysis is carried out to obtain a stable and balanced institutional improvement probability and employee cooperation probability.These two probability values are substituted into the Bayesian network model of performance improvement of new R&D institutions,and the posterior probability of performance improvement is predicted by Bayesian network reasoning and diagnosis to find effective improvement measures.Finally,practical case analysis is given to verify the effectiveness and practicability of the proposed method.
基金supported by the Program for NIM-Basic Research Business Expenses Key Field Program,China(No.AKYCX2315).
文摘The rapid identification of γ-emitting radionuclides with low activity levels in public areas is crucial for nuclear safety.However,classical methods rely on full-energy peaks in the integral spectrum,requiring sufficient count accumulation for evaluation,thereby limiting response time.The sequential Bayesian approach,which utilizes prior information and considers both photon energies and interarrival times,can significantly enhance the performance of radionuclides identification.This study proposes a theoretical optimization method for the traditional sequential Bayesian approach.Each photon is processed sequentially,and the corresponding posterior probability is updated in real time using a noninformative prior from the Bayesian theory.By comparing the posterior probabilities of the background and radionuclides based on the energy variance and time interval,the type of γ-rays can be identified(background characteristic γ-rays,Compton plateaus γ-rays,or radionuclide-specific characteristic γ-rays).By integrating the information from these multiple characteristic γ-rays,the presence and type of radionuclides were determined based on the final decision function and a set threshold.Based on theoretical research,verification experiments were conducted using a LaBr_(3)(Ce)detector in both low-and natural background radiation environments with typical radionuclides(^(137)Cs,^(60)Co,and ^(133)Ba).The results show that this approach can identify ^(137)Cs in 7.9 s and 8.5 s(source dose rate contribution:approximately 6.5×10^(−3)μGy/h),^(60)Co in 8.1 s and 9.8 s(approximately 4.8×10^(−2)μGy/h),and ^(133)Ba in 4.05 s and 5.99 s(approximately 3.4×10^(−2)μGy/h)under low and natural background radiation,respectively,with a miss rate below 0.01%.This demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach for fast radionuclides identification,even at low activity levels and highlights its potential for enhancing public safety in diverse radiation environments.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.12247126 and 12375123)Henan Postdoctoral Foundation(No.HN2024013)the Natural Science Foundation of Henan Province(No.242300421048)。
文摘Research on neutron-induced fission product yields of^(232)Th is crucial for understanding the competition between symmetric and asymmetric fission in actinide nuclei.However,obtaining complete isotopic yield distributions over a wide range of neutron energies remains a challenge.In this study,a Bayesian neural network model was developed to predict the independent(IND)and cumulative fission yields of^(232)Th under neutron irradiation at various incident energies.To address the limited availability of experimental data for the analysis of IND mass distributions,we substituted mass-number-based yields with the yields of specific isotopes.Furthermore,physical phenomena or quantities,such as the odd-even effect and isospin,were introduced as constraints to enhance the physical consistency of the predictions.The impact of these constraints was evaluated using mass-chain yield distributions and their dependence on energy.Incorporating physical constraints significantly improves the prediction accuracy,yielding more reliable and physically meaningful fission yield data for nuclear physics and reactor design applications.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41961134032).
文摘The probabilistic stability evolution analysis of reservoir bank slopes is a crucial aspect of risk assessment,with core challenges including the consideration of deformation mechanisms and accurate determination of mechanical parameters.In this study,a novel time-varying reliability analysis framework based on sequential Bayesian updating of mechanical parameters is proposed.The inverse parameters account for damage time-dependent behavior,incorporating water effect and a strain-driven softening-hardening process that depends on sliding states.The likelihood function is enhanced to simultaneously consider observation error,surrogate model prediction error,and model structural error,with the introduction of physical penalty.Exploration of the high-dimensional parameter space is achieved via the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo(HMC)method and the physics knowledge-based time-dependent deformation surrogate model.The time-varying reliability analysis of the slope is performed using the multi-grid method.Taking a reservoir bank slope as a case study,the sequential updating of 12 mechanical parameters is conducted based on deformation time series from 16 monitoring points,thereby validating the proposed framework.The results indicate that the proposed framework effectively captures the posterior distribution of mechanical parameters,with the case slope remaining in a critically stable state after overall sliding,showing a high failure probability.Introducing model structural error can reduce parameter compensation,and a reasonable sequential updating step size can improve inversion accuracy.
基金supported by Natural Science Fund for colleges and universities in Jiangsu Province(No. 07KJD170012)Natural Science Fund of Huaihai Institute of Technology (No. Z2008009)
文摘Coastal sediment type map has been widely used in marine economic and engineering activities, but the traditional mapping methods had some limitations due to their intrinsic assumption or subjectivity. In this paper, a non-parametric indicator Kriging method has been proposed for generating coastal sediment map. The method can effectively avoid mapping subjectivity, has no special requirements for the sample data to meet second-order stationary or normal distribution, and can also provide useful information on the quantitative evaluation of mapping uncertainty. The application of the method in the southern sea area of Lianyungang showed that much more convincing mapping results could be obtained compared with the traditional methods such as IDW, Kriging and Voronoi diagram under the same condition, so the proposed method was applicable with great utilization value.
文摘为明确机场服务质量的影响因素及旅客对机场服务质量满意程度,提高机场服务质量,运用逼近理想解排序法(technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution,TOPSIS)与贝叶斯网络结合的评估模型,建立大型运输机场服务质量评价指标体系。运用双向推理诊断模型评价机场服务质量,对机场满意度正向推理以及影响指标的反向敏感性诊断。对旅客机场服务质量满意度以及影响因素进行深入研究,并以某大型运输机场为例验证方法的可行性。研究结果表明,旅客对该机场的服务质量满意概率为0.67,一般满意概率为0.21。反向诊断得到行李提取系统、进出机场综合交通与城市连接的便利性、安检服务效率等影响因素敏感性较高。为机场科学制定提升服务质量措施提供理论基础。
文摘Short-term traffic flow is one of the core technologies to realize traffic flow guidance. In this article, in view of the characteristics that the traffic flow changes repeatedly, a short-term traffic flow forecasting method based on a three-layer K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression algorithm is proposed. Specifically, two screening layers based on shape similarity were introduced in K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression method, and the forecasting results were output using the weighted averaging on the reciprocal values of the shape similarity distances and the most-similar-point distance adjustment method. According to the experimental results, the proposed algorithm has improved the predictive ability of the traditional K-nearest neighbor non-parametric regression method, and greatly enhanced the accuracy and real-time performance of short-term traffic flow forecasting.
基金supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grants 61841103,61673164,and 61602397in part by the Natural Science Foundation of Hunan Provincial under Grants 2016JJ2041 and 2019JJ50106+1 种基金in part by the Key Project of Education Department of Hunan Provincial under Grant 18B385and in part by the Graduate Research Innovation Projects of Hunan Province under Grants CX2018B805 and CX2018B813.
文摘Detecting moving objects in the stationary background is an important problem in visual surveillance systems.However,the traditional background subtraction method fails when the background is not completely stationary and involves certain dynamic changes.In this paper,according to the basic steps of the background subtraction method,a novel non-parametric moving object detection method is proposed based on an improved ant colony algorithm by using the Markov random field.Concretely,the contributions are as follows:1)A new nonparametric strategy is utilized to model the background,based on an improved kernel density estimation;this approach uses an adaptive bandwidth,and the fused features combine the colours,gradients and positions.2)A Markov random field method based on this adaptive background model via the constraint of the spatial context is proposed to extract objects.3)The posterior function is maximized efficiently by using an improved ant colony system algorithm.Extensive experiments show that the proposed method demonstrates a better performance than many existing state-of-the-art methods.
基金supported by grants from the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong Special Administrative Region,China(Project No.City U 11213119 and T22-603/15N)The financial support is gratefully acknowledgedfinancial support from the Hong Kong Ph.D.Fellowship Scheme funded by the Research Grants Council of Hong Kong,China。
文摘Spatial interpolation has been frequently encountered in earth sciences and engineering.A reasonable appraisal of subsurface heterogeneity plays a significant role in planning,risk assessment and decision making for geotechnical practice.Geostatistics is commonly used to interpolate spatially varying properties at un-sampled locations from scatter measurements.However,successful application of classic geostatistical models requires prior characterization of spatial auto-correlation structures,which poses a great challenge for unexperienced engineers,particularly when only limited measurements are available.Data-driven machine learning methods,such as radial basis function network(RBFN),require minimal human intervention and provide effective alternatives for spatial interpolation of non-stationary and non-Gaussian data,particularly when measurements are sparse.Conventional RBFN,however,is direction independent(i.e.isotropic)and cannot quantify prediction uncertainty in spatial interpolation.In this study,an ensemble RBFN method is proposed that not only allows geotechnical anisotropy to be properly incorporated,but also quantifies uncertainty in spatial interpolation.The proposed method is illustrated using numerical examples of cone penetration test(CPT)data,which involve interpolation of a 2D CPT cross-section from limited continuous 1D CPT soundings in the vertical direction.In addition,a comparative study is performed to benchmark the proposed ensemble RBFN with two other non-parametric data-driven approaches,namely,Multiple Point Statistics(MPS)and Bayesian Compressive Sensing(BCS).The results reveal that the proposed ensemble RBFN provides a better estimation of spatial patterns and associated prediction uncertainty at un-sampled locations when a reasonable amount of data is available as input.Moreover,the prediction accuracy of all the three methods improves as the number of measurements increases,and vice versa.It is also found that BCS prediction is less sensitive to the number of measurement data and outperforms RBFN and MPS when only limited point observations are available.
