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Bayesian Network Model of Product Information Diffusion and Reasoning of Influence
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作者 Xuehua Sun Shaojie Hou +2 位作者 Ning Cai Wenxiu Ma Surui Zhao 《Journal of Data Analysis and Information Processing》 2020年第4期267-281,共15页
Information diffusion on social media has become a key strategy in people’s daily interactions. This paper studies consumers’ participation in the product information diffusion, and analyzes the complexity of inform... Information diffusion on social media has become a key strategy in people’s daily interactions. This paper studies consumers’ participation in the product information diffusion, and analyzes the complexity of information diffusion which is affected by many factors. Prior investigations of information diffusion have primarily focused on the composition of diffusion networks with independent factors and the intricacy of the process has not been completely evaluated. The majority of prior investigations have focused on strategies and the moving forces in social media processes and the determination of influential seed nodes, with few evaluations conducted about the factors affecting consumers’ choices in information diffusion. In this study, a Bayesian network model of product information diffusion was created to examine the links between factors and consumer deportment. It revealed how those factors had an impact on each other and on consumer deportment choice. The innovation of the thesis is reflected in the exploration and analysis of the specific communication path of product information diffusion, which provides a better marketing idea and practical method for the development of mobile e-commerce. The research findings can help identify the quantitative relationships between the factors affecting the process of product information diffusion and user behavior. 展开更多
关键词 Product Information Diffusion bayesian network model Influence Reasoning Consumer Behaviors Clique Tree
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Predicting the nephrotoxicity of Chinese herbal medicines based on a Bayesian network model
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作者 Li-Juan Tan Liang Chen +2 位作者 Jia-Hui Huang Ze-Hai Fang Hong-Jie Liu 《TMR Pharmacology Research》 2022年第1期22-29,共8页
Objective:Based on a Bayesian network model(BNM),we constructed and evaluated a predictive model of Chinese herbal medicines(CHMs)nephrotoxicity,explored its influencing factors,and provided a reference for the preven... Objective:Based on a Bayesian network model(BNM),we constructed and evaluated a predictive model of Chinese herbal medicines(CHMs)nephrotoxicity,explored its influencing factors,and provided a reference for the prevention and control of nephrotoxicity.Methods:We searched for CHMs with nephrotoxicity through academic journals and academic works,screened non-nephrotoxic CHMs,and then tested the correlation between nephrotoxic and non-nephrotoxic CHMs and their four properties,five flavours,and channel tropism.The screened variables were used to construct the Bayesian network model(BNM),predict important factors affecting the nephrotoxicity of Chinese herbal medicines(CHMs),draw the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve of the model,and calculate the area under the curve(AUC)to evaluate the forecasting effect of the model.Results:Medicinal property theory(four properties and five flavours)are important factors affecting the nephrotoxicity of CHMs.Nephrotoxic and non-nephrotoxic CHMs are related to their four propertiesand five flavours(P<0.05).BNM showed that sweetness and flatness wereimportant protective factors for nephrotoxicity of CHMs;the prediction accuracy was 77.92%,the AUC result of the model ROC curve was 0.661(95%CI:0.620-0.701),and the best sensitivity(0.736)and specificity(0.571)were obtained at 0.65.Discussion:Modern mathematical statistics and modeling methods have certain reference significance and application value for the prediction of CHMs nephrotoxicity and toxicology research. 展开更多
关键词 Chinese herbal medicines four properties five flavours channel tropism prediction of nephrotoxicity bayesian network model
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Application of Bayesian regularized BP neural network model for analysis of aquatic ecological data—A case study of chlorophyll-a prediction in Nanzui water area of Dongting Lake 被引量:5
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作者 XU Min ZENG Guang-ming +3 位作者 XU Xin-yi HUANG Guo-he SUN Wei JIANG Xiao-yun 《Journal of Environmental Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2005年第6期946-952,共7页
Bayesian regularized BP neural network(BRBPNN) technique was applied in the chlorophyll-α prediction of Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake. Through BP network interpolation method, the input and output samples of t... Bayesian regularized BP neural network(BRBPNN) technique was applied in the chlorophyll-α prediction of Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake. Through BP network interpolation method, the input and output samples of the network were obtained. After the selection of input variables using stepwise/multiple linear regression method in SPSS i1.0 software, the BRBPNN model was established between chlorophyll-α and environmental parameters, biological parameters. The achieved optimal network structure was 3-11-1 with the correlation coefficients and the mean square errors for the training set and the test set as 0.999 and 0.000?8426, 0.981 and 0.0216 respectively. The sum of square weights between each input neuron and the hidden layer of optimal BRBPNN models of different structures indicated that the effect of individual input parameter on chlorophyll- α declined in the order of alga amount 〉 secchi disc depth(SD) 〉 electrical conductivity (EC). Additionally, it also demonstrated that the contributions of these three factors were the maximal for the change of chlorophyll-α concentration, total phosphorus(TP) and total nitrogen(TN) were the minimal. All the results showed that BRBPNN model was capable of automated regularization parameter selection and thus it may ensure the excellent generation ability and robustness. Thus, this study laid the foundation for the application of BRBPNN model in the analysis of aquatic ecological data(chlorophyll-α prediction) and the explanation about the effective eutrophication treatment measures for Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake. 展开更多
关键词 Dongting Lake CHLOROPHYLL-A bayesian regularized BP neural network model sum of square weights
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Estimating survival benefit of adjuvant therapy based on a Bayesian network prediction model in curatively resected advanced gallbladder adenocarcinoma 被引量:11
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作者 Zhi-Min Geng Zhi-Qiang Cai +9 位作者 Zhen Zhang Zhao-Hui Tang Feng Xue Chen Chen Dong Zhang Qi Li Rui Zhang Wen-Zhi Li Lin Wang Shu-Bin Si 《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 SCIE CAS 2019年第37期5655-5666,共12页
BACKGROUND The factors affecting the prognosis and role of adjuvant therapy in advanced gallbladder carcinoma(GBC)after curative resection remain unclear.AIM To provide a survival prediction model to patients with GBC... BACKGROUND The factors affecting the prognosis and role of adjuvant therapy in advanced gallbladder carcinoma(GBC)after curative resection remain unclear.AIM To provide a survival prediction model to patients with GBC as well as to identify the role of adjuvant therapy.METHODS Patients with curatively resected advanced gallbladder adenocarcinoma(T3 and T4)were selected from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results database between 2004 and 2015.A survival prediction model based on Bayesian network(BN)was constructed using the tree-augmented na?ve Bayes algorithm,and composite importance measures were applied to rank the influence of factors on survival.The dataset was divided into a training dataset to establish the BN model and a testing dataset to test the model randomly at a ratio of 7:3.The confusion matrix and receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the model accuracy.RESULTS A total of 818 patients met the inclusion criteria.The median survival time was 9.0 mo.The accuracy of BN model was 69.67%,and the area under the curve value for the testing dataset was 77.72%.Adjuvant radiation,adjuvant chemotherapy(CTx),T stage,scope of regional lymph node surgery,and radiation sequence were ranked as the top five prognostic factors.A survival prediction table was established based on T stage,N stage,adjuvant radiotherapy(XRT),and CTx.The distribution of the survival time(>9.0 mo)was affected by different treatments with the order of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy(cXRT)>adjuvant radiation>adjuvant chemotherapy>surgery alone.For patients with node-positive disease,the larger benefit predicted by the model is adjuvant chemoradiotherapy.The survival analysis showed that there was a significant difference among the different adjuvant therapy groups(log rank,surgery alone vs CTx,P<0.001;surgery alone vs XRT,P=0.014;surgery alone vs cXRT,P<0.001).CONCLUSION The BN-based survival prediction model can be used as a decision-making support tool for advanced GBC patients.Adjuvant chemoradiotherapy is expected to improve the survival significantly for patients with node-positive disease. 展开更多
关键词 GALLBLADDER CARCINOMA bayesian network Surgery ADJUVANT therapy Prediction model
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Winning Probability Estimation Based on Improved Bradley-Terry Model and Bayesian Network for Aircraft Carrier Battle 被引量:1
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作者 Yuhui Wang Wei Wang Qingxian Wu 《Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(New Series)》 EI CAS 2017年第2期39-44,共6页
To provide a decision-making aid for aircraft carrier battle,the winning probability estimation based on Bradley-Terry model and Bayesian network is presented. Firstly,the armed forces units of aircraft carrier are cl... To provide a decision-making aid for aircraft carrier battle,the winning probability estimation based on Bradley-Terry model and Bayesian network is presented. Firstly,the armed forces units of aircraft carrier are classified into three types,which are aircraft,ship and submarine. Then,the attack ability value and defense ability value for each type of armed forces are estimated by using BP neural network,whose training results of sample data are consistent with the estimation results. Next,compared the assessment values through an improved Bradley-Terry model and constructed a Bayesian network to do the global assessment,the winning probabilities of both combat sides are obtained. Finally,the winning probability estimation for a navy battle is given to illustrate the validity of the proposed scheme. 展开更多
关键词 aircraft carrier battle BP neural network Bradley-Terry model bayesian networks
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Building Bayesian Network(BN)-Based System Reliability Model by Dual Genetic Algorithm(DGA)
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作者 游威振 钟小品 《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2015年第6期914-918,共5页
A system reliability model based on Bayesian network(BN)is built via an evolutionary strategy called dual genetic algorithm(DGA).BN is a probabilistic approach to analyze relationships between stochastic events.In con... A system reliability model based on Bayesian network(BN)is built via an evolutionary strategy called dual genetic algorithm(DGA).BN is a probabilistic approach to analyze relationships between stochastic events.In contrast with traditional methods where BN model is built by professionals,DGA is proposed for the automatic analysis of historical data and construction of BN for the estimation of system reliability.The whole solution space of BN structures is searched by DGA and a more accurate BN model is obtained.Efficacy of the proposed method is shown by some literature examples. 展开更多
关键词 bayesian network(BN)model dual genetic algorithm(DGA) system reliability historical data
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Linking Structural Equation Modeling with Bayesian Network and Its Application to Coastal Phytoplankton Dynamics in the Bohai Bay
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作者 XU Xiao-fu SUN Jian +2 位作者 NIE Hong-tao YUAN De-kui TAO Jian-hua 《China Ocean Engineering》 SCIE EI CSCD 2016年第5期733-748,共16页
Bayesian networks (BN) have many advantages over other methods in ecological modeling, and have become an increasingly popular modeling tool. However, BN are flawed in regard to building models based on inadequate e... Bayesian networks (BN) have many advantages over other methods in ecological modeling, and have become an increasingly popular modeling tool. However, BN are flawed in regard to building models based on inadequate existing knowledge. To overcome this limitation, we propose a new method that links BN with structural equation modeling (SEM). In this method, SEM is used to improve the model structure for BN. This method was used to simulate coastal phytoplankton dynamics in the Bohai Bay. We demonstrate that this hybrid approach minimizes the need for expert elicitation, generates more reasonable structures for BN models, and increases the BN model's accuracy and reliability. These results suggest that the inclusion of SEM for testing and verifying the theoretical structure during the initial construction stage improves the effectiveness of BN models, especially for complex eco-environment systems. The results also demonstrate that in the Bohai Bay, while phytoplankton biomass has the greatest influence on phytoplankton dynamics, the impact of nutrients on phytoplankton dynamics is larger than the influence of the physical environment in summer. Furthermore, although the Redfield ratio indicates that phosphorus should be the primary nutrient limiting factor, our results show that silicate plays the most important role in regulating phytoplankton dynamics in the Bohai Bay. 展开更多
关键词 structural equation modeling bayesian networks ecological modeling Bohai Bay phytoplankton dynamics
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Research on Bayesian Network Based User's Interest Model
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作者 ZHANG Weifeng XU Baowen +1 位作者 CUI Zifeng XU Lei 《Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences》 CAS 2007年第5期809-813,共5页
It has very realistic significance for improving the quality of users' accessing information to filter and selectively retrieve the large number of information on the Internet. On the basis of analyzing the existing ... It has very realistic significance for improving the quality of users' accessing information to filter and selectively retrieve the large number of information on the Internet. On the basis of analyzing the existing users' interest models and some basic questions of users' interest (representation, derivation and identification of users' interest), a Bayesian network based users' interest model is given. In this model, the users' interest reduction algorithm based on Markov Blanket model is used to reduce the interest noise, and then users' interested and not interested documents are used to train the Bayesian network. Compared to the simple model, this model has the following advantages like small space requirements, simple reasoning method and high recognition rate. The experiment result shows this model can more appropriately reflect the user's interest, and has higher performance and good usability. 展开更多
关键词 bayesian network interest model feature selection
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Bayesian Network and Factor Analysis for Modeling Pine Wilt Disease Prevalence
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作者 Mingxiang Huang Liang Guo +1 位作者 Jianhua Gong Weijun Yang 《Journal of Software Engineering and Applications》 2013年第3期13-17,共5页
A Bayesian network (BN) model was developed to predict susceptibility to PWD(Pine Wilt Disease). The distribution of PWD was identified using QuickBird and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) images taken at different times... A Bayesian network (BN) model was developed to predict susceptibility to PWD(Pine Wilt Disease). The distribution of PWD was identified using QuickBird and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) images taken at different times. Seven factors that influence the distribution of PWD were extracted from the QuickBird images and were used as the independent variables. The results showed that the BN model predicted PWD with high accuracy. In a sensitivity analysis, elevation (EL), the normal differential vegetation index (NDVI), the distance to settlements (DS) and the distance to roads (DR) were strongly associated with PWD prevalence, and slope (SL) exhibited the weakest association with PWD prevalence. The study showed that BN is an effective tool for modeling PWD prevalence and quantifying the impact of various factors. 展开更多
关键词 PINE WILT Disease bayesian network modelING Factor Analysis
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Hierarchy Bayesian model based services awareness of high-speed optical access networks
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作者 白晖峰 《Optoelectronics Letters》 EI 2018年第2期114-118,共5页
As the speed of optical access networks soars with ever increasing multiple services, the service-supporting ability of optical access networks suffers greatly from the shortage of service awareness. Aiming to solve t... As the speed of optical access networks soars with ever increasing multiple services, the service-supporting ability of optical access networks suffers greatly from the shortage of service awareness. Aiming to solve this problem, a hierarchy Bayesian model based services awareness mechanism is proposed for high-speed optical access networks. This approach builds a so-called hierarchy Bayesian model, according to the structure of typical optical access networks. Moreover, the proposed scheme is able to conduct simple services awareness operation in each optical network unit(ONU) and to perform complex services awareness from the whole view of system in optical line terminal(OLT). Simulation results show that the proposed scheme is able to achieve better quality of services(Qo S), in terms of packet loss rate and time delay. 展开更多
关键词 As Simulation OLT Hierarchy bayesian model based services awareness of high-speed optical access networks
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常规公交风险的SEM与Bayesian Network组合评估方法研究 被引量:4
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作者 宗芳 于萍 +1 位作者 吴挺 陈相茹 《交通信息与安全》 CSCD 北大核心 2018年第4期22-28,共7页
常规公交系统具有载客量大、班次多、线路固定等特点,存在多种安全风险隐患。为综合评估常规公交风险,对国内外554条事故数据分析整理,构建了常规公交风险指标体系。建立了常规公交风险评估的结构方程模型,得到常规公交风险因素对事故... 常规公交系统具有载客量大、班次多、线路固定等特点,存在多种安全风险隐患。为综合评估常规公交风险,对国内外554条事故数据分析整理,构建了常规公交风险指标体系。建立了常规公交风险评估的结构方程模型,得到常规公交风险因素对事故的单向拓扑结构。在结构学习的基础上,利用信息熵理论研究风险因素对预测结果可信度的影响权重,从而进行变量筛选。以失火事故为例利用贝叶斯网络模型进行了城市常规公交风险评估参数学习。研究结果表明,失火事故的主要风险因素为油气泄漏、车内外温度均较高等。在风险因素组合作用下失火事故发生概率范围为0.002 1至0.842 9。所建模型预测精度高,验证了方法的科学性和准确性,可用于进行定量化的常规公交风险评估。 展开更多
关键词 风险评估 常规公交 结构方程模型 贝叶斯网络模型 信息熵
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Ontology Mapping Based on Bayesian Network 被引量:1
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作者 张凌宇 陶佰睿 《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2015年第4期681-687,共7页
Ontology mapping is a key interoperability enabler for the semantic web. In this paper,a new ontology mapping approach called ontology mapping based on Bayesian network( OM-BN) is proposed. OM-BN combines the models o... Ontology mapping is a key interoperability enabler for the semantic web. In this paper,a new ontology mapping approach called ontology mapping based on Bayesian network( OM-BN) is proposed. OM-BN combines the models of ontology and Bayesian Network,and applies the method of Multi-strategy to computing similarity. In OM-BN,the characteristics of ontology,such as tree structure and semantic inclusion relations among concepts,are used during the process of translation from ontology to ontology Bayesian network( OBN). Then the method of Multi-strategy is used to create similarity table( ST) for each concept-node in OBN. Finally,the iterative process of mapping reasoning is used to deduce new mappings from STs,repeatedly. 展开更多
关键词 COMPONENT ontology mapping multi-strategy bayesian network model
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Fault detection and diagnosis for data incomplete industrial systems with new Bayesian network approach 被引量:15
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作者 Zhengdao Zhang Jinlin Zhu Feng Pan 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2013年第3期500-511,共12页
For the fault detection and diagnosis problem in largescale industrial systems, there are two important issues: the missing data samples and the non-Gaussian property of the data. However, most of the existing data-d... For the fault detection and diagnosis problem in largescale industrial systems, there are two important issues: the missing data samples and the non-Gaussian property of the data. However, most of the existing data-driven methods cannot be able to handle both of them. Thus, a new Bayesian network classifier based fault detection and diagnosis method is proposed. At first, a non-imputation method is presented to handle the data incomplete samples, with the property of the proposed Bayesian network classifier, and the missing values can be marginalized in an elegant manner. Furthermore, the Gaussian mixture model is used to approximate the non-Gaussian data with a linear combination of finite Gaussian mixtures, so that the Bayesian network can process the non-Gaussian data in an effective way. Therefore, the entire fault detection and diagnosis method can deal with the high-dimensional incomplete process samples in an efficient and robust way. The diagnosis results are expressed in the manner of probability with the reliability scores. The proposed approach is evaluated with a benchmark problem called the Tennessee Eastman process. The simulation results show the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method in fault detection and diagnosis for large-scale systems with missing measurements. 展开更多
关键词 fault detection and diagnosis bayesian network Gaussian mixture model data incomplete non-imputation.
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Research on the self-defence electronic jamming decision-making based on the discrete dynamic Bayesian network 被引量:6
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作者 Tang Zheng Gao Xiaoguang 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2008年第4期702-708,共7页
The manner and conditions of running the decision-making system with self-defense electronic jamming are given. After proposing the scenario of applying discrete dynamic Bayesian network to the decision making with se... The manner and conditions of running the decision-making system with self-defense electronic jamming are given. After proposing the scenario of applying discrete dynamic Bayesian network to the decision making with self-defense electronic jamming, a decision-making model with self-defense electronic jamming based on the discrete dynamic Bayesian network is established. Then jamming decision inferences by the aid of the algorithm of discrete dynamic Bayesian network are carried on. The simulating result shows that this method is able to synthesize different targets which are not predominant. In this way, various features at the same time, as well as the same feature appearing at different time complement mutually; in addition, the accuracy and reliability of electronic jamming decision making are enhanced significantly. 展开更多
关键词 self-defense electronic jamming discrete dynamic bayesian network decision-making model
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A Bayesian Network Learning Algorithm Based on Independence Test and Ant Colony Optimization 被引量:21
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作者 JI Jun-Zhong ZHANG Hong-Xun HU Ren-Bing LIU Chun-Nian 《自动化学报》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2009年第3期281-288,共8页
关键词 最优化 随机系统 自动化 BN
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Application of Bayesian Network Learning Methods to Land Resource Evaluation
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作者 HUANG Jiejun HE Xiaorong WAN Youchua 《Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences》 EI CAS 2006年第4期1041-1045,共5页
Bayesian network has a powerful ability/or reasoning and semantic representation, which combined with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, with prior knowledge and observed data, and provides an effective w... Bayesian network has a powerful ability/or reasoning and semantic representation, which combined with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, with prior knowledge and observed data, and provides an effective way to deal with prediction, classification and clustering. Firstly, this paper presented an overview of Bayesian network and its characteristics, and discussed how to learn a Bayesian net- work structure from given data, and then constructed a Bayesian network model for land resource evaluation with expert knowledge and the dataset. The experimental results based on the test dataset are that evaluation accuracy is 87.5%, and Kappa index is 0. 826. All these prove the method is feasible and efficient, and indicate that Bayesian network is a promising approach for land resource evaluation. 展开更多
关键词 bayesian networks data mining land resource evaluation modelS
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融合DT-BO-GRU的中长期光伏功率滚动预测模型 被引量:1
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作者 李超 涂腾 +3 位作者 彭勋辉 李振 晁梓博 刘淑玉 《太阳能学报》 北大核心 2025年第5期275-284,共10页
提出一种基于决策树提取的贝叶斯优化GRU中长期光伏发电功率滚动预测模型。首先借助决策树模型对光伏组件模型进行参数提取,重新组成特征数据集;其次引入贝叶斯优化算法构建新的GRU神经网络模型;最后对树模型提取的光伏参数进行光伏功... 提出一种基于决策树提取的贝叶斯优化GRU中长期光伏发电功率滚动预测模型。首先借助决策树模型对光伏组件模型进行参数提取,重新组成特征数据集;其次引入贝叶斯优化算法构建新的GRU神经网络模型;最后对树模型提取的光伏参数进行光伏功率预测。实验结果表明,所提出的混合模型在极端地区等特殊场景下具有高精度的预测效果,且实验仿真结果拟合曲线更接近真实值,模型整体评价指标误差较低。因此,该文提出的融合DT-BO-GRU模型具有更高预测精度,为在北方地区对光伏发电功率预测提供了可能。 展开更多
关键词 光伏组件 神经网络 贝叶斯算法 决策树模型 参数提取 功率预测
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融合LDA-BN的船舶碰撞事故致因分析
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作者 邵波 刘巧 +2 位作者 柯善钢 郑霞忠 贺语琴 《安全与环境学报》 北大核心 2025年第1期157-164,共8页
为探究船舶碰撞事故致因及其关系,提升航运安全管理水平,研究提出融合狄利克雷分布(Latent Dirichlet allocation,LDA)与贝叶斯网络(Bayesian Network,BN)的船舶碰撞事故致因分析方法。首先,运用LDA主题模型挖掘361份船舶碰撞事故调查报... 为探究船舶碰撞事故致因及其关系,提升航运安全管理水平,研究提出融合狄利克雷分布(Latent Dirichlet allocation,LDA)与贝叶斯网络(Bayesian Network,BN)的船舶碰撞事故致因分析方法。首先,运用LDA主题模型挖掘361份船舶碰撞事故调查报告,提取27个事故致因主题;其次,利用事故树方法厘清调查报告中致因间的影响关系,构建事故致因贝叶斯网络结构,使用期望最大化算法进行贝叶斯网络参数学习,确定各节点的条件概率,构建事故致因贝叶斯网络模型;最后,通过逆向推理分析、最大致因链分析及敏感性分析,找出导致船舶碰撞事故发生的主要致因因素。结果显示:安全管理不到位、疏忽瞭望、事发水域通航环境复杂是引发船舶碰撞事故可能性大的致因,航线保持不当、应急处置不当、违规穿越锚地是导致船舶碰撞事故发生的最敏感致因因素。 展开更多
关键词 安全社会工程 船舶碰撞 狄利克雷分布主题模型 贝叶斯网络 事故致因
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青年货车驾驶人危险驾驶行为影响因素分析
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作者 陈红 刘洋 +2 位作者 梁子君 肖赟 李琛 《重庆交通大学学报(自然科学版)》 北大核心 2025年第10期65-73,共9页
探析青年货车驾驶人危险驾驶行为的影响机制对于提高道路运输行车安全性具有重要意义,基于计划行为理论构建因果图模型,通过问卷调查收集312份职业货车驾驶人数据,综合结构方程模型与贝叶斯网络两种因果推断方法分析心理影响机制。结果... 探析青年货车驾驶人危险驾驶行为的影响机制对于提高道路运输行车安全性具有重要意义,基于计划行为理论构建因果图模型,通过问卷调查收集312份职业货车驾驶人数据,综合结构方程模型与贝叶斯网络两种因果推断方法分析心理影响机制。结果表明:不同性别、驾驶时长、违规频率及交通事故经历的青年货车驾驶人的危险驾驶行为频率存在显著差异;扩展计划行为理论模型具有良好的解释力;行为意向、知觉行为控制和风险感知对危险驾驶行为有显著影响,其中行为意向影响效应最大,风险感知为负向影响;17.1%的青年货车驾驶人具有高水平危险驾驶行为;当知觉行为控制和行为意向分别由低状态变为高状态,高水平危险驾驶行为的可能性分别增加了16.1%和32.1%的概率。 展开更多
关键词 交通运输工程 危险驾驶行为 青年货车驾驶人 计划行为理论 结构方程模型 贝叶斯网络
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