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Bayesian Network Model of Product Information Diffusion and Reasoning of Influence
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作者 Xuehua Sun Shaojie Hou +2 位作者 Ning Cai Wenxiu Ma Surui Zhao 《Journal of Data Analysis and Information Processing》 2020年第4期267-281,共15页
Information diffusion on social media has become a key strategy in people’s daily interactions. This paper studies consumers’ participation in the product information diffusion, and analyzes the complexity of inform... Information diffusion on social media has become a key strategy in people’s daily interactions. This paper studies consumers’ participation in the product information diffusion, and analyzes the complexity of information diffusion which is affected by many factors. Prior investigations of information diffusion have primarily focused on the composition of diffusion networks with independent factors and the intricacy of the process has not been completely evaluated. The majority of prior investigations have focused on strategies and the moving forces in social media processes and the determination of influential seed nodes, with few evaluations conducted about the factors affecting consumers’ choices in information diffusion. In this study, a Bayesian network model of product information diffusion was created to examine the links between factors and consumer deportment. It revealed how those factors had an impact on each other and on consumer deportment choice. The innovation of the thesis is reflected in the exploration and analysis of the specific communication path of product information diffusion, which provides a better marketing idea and practical method for the development of mobile e-commerce. The research findings can help identify the quantitative relationships between the factors affecting the process of product information diffusion and user behavior. 展开更多
关键词 Product Information Diffusion bayesian network model Influence Reasoning Consumer Behaviors Clique Tree
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Predicting the nephrotoxicity of Chinese herbal medicines based on a Bayesian network model
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作者 Li-Juan Tan Liang Chen +2 位作者 Jia-Hui Huang Ze-Hai Fang Hong-Jie Liu 《TMR Pharmacology Research》 2022年第1期22-29,共8页
Objective:Based on a Bayesian network model(BNM),we constructed and evaluated a predictive model of Chinese herbal medicines(CHMs)nephrotoxicity,explored its influencing factors,and provided a reference for the preven... Objective:Based on a Bayesian network model(BNM),we constructed and evaluated a predictive model of Chinese herbal medicines(CHMs)nephrotoxicity,explored its influencing factors,and provided a reference for the prevention and control of nephrotoxicity.Methods:We searched for CHMs with nephrotoxicity through academic journals and academic works,screened non-nephrotoxic CHMs,and then tested the correlation between nephrotoxic and non-nephrotoxic CHMs and their four properties,five flavours,and channel tropism.The screened variables were used to construct the Bayesian network model(BNM),predict important factors affecting the nephrotoxicity of Chinese herbal medicines(CHMs),draw the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve of the model,and calculate the area under the curve(AUC)to evaluate the forecasting effect of the model.Results:Medicinal property theory(four properties and five flavours)are important factors affecting the nephrotoxicity of CHMs.Nephrotoxic and non-nephrotoxic CHMs are related to their four propertiesand five flavours(P<0.05).BNM showed that sweetness and flatness wereimportant protective factors for nephrotoxicity of CHMs;the prediction accuracy was 77.92%,the AUC result of the model ROC curve was 0.661(95%CI:0.620-0.701),and the best sensitivity(0.736)and specificity(0.571)were obtained at 0.65.Discussion:Modern mathematical statistics and modeling methods have certain reference significance and application value for the prediction of CHMs nephrotoxicity and toxicology research. 展开更多
关键词 Chinese herbal medicines four properties five flavours channel tropism prediction of nephrotoxicity bayesian network model
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Application of Bayesian regularized BP neural network model for analysis of aquatic ecological data—A case study of chlorophyll-a prediction in Nanzui water area of Dongting Lake 被引量:6
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作者 XU Min ZENG Guang-ming +3 位作者 XU Xin-yi HUANG Guo-he SUN Wei JIANG Xiao-yun 《Journal of Environmental Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2005年第6期946-952,共7页
Bayesian regularized BP neural network(BRBPNN) technique was applied in the chlorophyll-α prediction of Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake. Through BP network interpolation method, the input and output samples of t... Bayesian regularized BP neural network(BRBPNN) technique was applied in the chlorophyll-α prediction of Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake. Through BP network interpolation method, the input and output samples of the network were obtained. After the selection of input variables using stepwise/multiple linear regression method in SPSS i1.0 software, the BRBPNN model was established between chlorophyll-α and environmental parameters, biological parameters. The achieved optimal network structure was 3-11-1 with the correlation coefficients and the mean square errors for the training set and the test set as 0.999 and 0.000?8426, 0.981 and 0.0216 respectively. The sum of square weights between each input neuron and the hidden layer of optimal BRBPNN models of different structures indicated that the effect of individual input parameter on chlorophyll- α declined in the order of alga amount 〉 secchi disc depth(SD) 〉 electrical conductivity (EC). Additionally, it also demonstrated that the contributions of these three factors were the maximal for the change of chlorophyll-α concentration, total phosphorus(TP) and total nitrogen(TN) were the minimal. All the results showed that BRBPNN model was capable of automated regularization parameter selection and thus it may ensure the excellent generation ability and robustness. Thus, this study laid the foundation for the application of BRBPNN model in the analysis of aquatic ecological data(chlorophyll-α prediction) and the explanation about the effective eutrophication treatment measures for Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake. 展开更多
关键词 Dongting Lake CHLOROPHYLL-A bayesian regularized BP neural network model sum of square weights
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Estimating survival benefit of adjuvant therapy based on a Bayesian network prediction model in curatively resected advanced gallbladder adenocarcinoma 被引量:11
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作者 Zhi-Min Geng Zhi-Qiang Cai +9 位作者 Zhen Zhang Zhao-Hui Tang Feng Xue Chen Chen Dong Zhang Qi Li Rui Zhang Wen-Zhi Li Lin Wang Shu-Bin Si 《World Journal of Gastroenterology》 SCIE CAS 2019年第37期5655-5666,共12页
BACKGROUND The factors affecting the prognosis and role of adjuvant therapy in advanced gallbladder carcinoma(GBC)after curative resection remain unclear.AIM To provide a survival prediction model to patients with GBC... BACKGROUND The factors affecting the prognosis and role of adjuvant therapy in advanced gallbladder carcinoma(GBC)after curative resection remain unclear.AIM To provide a survival prediction model to patients with GBC as well as to identify the role of adjuvant therapy.METHODS Patients with curatively resected advanced gallbladder adenocarcinoma(T3 and T4)were selected from the Surveillance,Epidemiology,and End Results database between 2004 and 2015.A survival prediction model based on Bayesian network(BN)was constructed using the tree-augmented na?ve Bayes algorithm,and composite importance measures were applied to rank the influence of factors on survival.The dataset was divided into a training dataset to establish the BN model and a testing dataset to test the model randomly at a ratio of 7:3.The confusion matrix and receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the model accuracy.RESULTS A total of 818 patients met the inclusion criteria.The median survival time was 9.0 mo.The accuracy of BN model was 69.67%,and the area under the curve value for the testing dataset was 77.72%.Adjuvant radiation,adjuvant chemotherapy(CTx),T stage,scope of regional lymph node surgery,and radiation sequence were ranked as the top five prognostic factors.A survival prediction table was established based on T stage,N stage,adjuvant radiotherapy(XRT),and CTx.The distribution of the survival time(>9.0 mo)was affected by different treatments with the order of adjuvant chemoradiotherapy(cXRT)>adjuvant radiation>adjuvant chemotherapy>surgery alone.For patients with node-positive disease,the larger benefit predicted by the model is adjuvant chemoradiotherapy.The survival analysis showed that there was a significant difference among the different adjuvant therapy groups(log rank,surgery alone vs CTx,P<0.001;surgery alone vs XRT,P=0.014;surgery alone vs cXRT,P<0.001).CONCLUSION The BN-based survival prediction model can be used as a decision-making support tool for advanced GBC patients.Adjuvant chemoradiotherapy is expected to improve the survival significantly for patients with node-positive disease. 展开更多
关键词 GALLBLADDER CARCINOMA bayesian network Surgery ADJUVANT therapy Prediction model
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Winning Probability Estimation Based on Improved Bradley-Terry Model and Bayesian Network for Aircraft Carrier Battle 被引量:1
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作者 Yuhui Wang Wei Wang Qingxian Wu 《Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology(New Series)》 EI CAS 2017年第2期39-44,共6页
To provide a decision-making aid for aircraft carrier battle,the winning probability estimation based on Bradley-Terry model and Bayesian network is presented. Firstly,the armed forces units of aircraft carrier are cl... To provide a decision-making aid for aircraft carrier battle,the winning probability estimation based on Bradley-Terry model and Bayesian network is presented. Firstly,the armed forces units of aircraft carrier are classified into three types,which are aircraft,ship and submarine. Then,the attack ability value and defense ability value for each type of armed forces are estimated by using BP neural network,whose training results of sample data are consistent with the estimation results. Next,compared the assessment values through an improved Bradley-Terry model and constructed a Bayesian network to do the global assessment,the winning probabilities of both combat sides are obtained. Finally,the winning probability estimation for a navy battle is given to illustrate the validity of the proposed scheme. 展开更多
关键词 aircraft carrier battle BP neural network Bradley-Terry model bayesian networks
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Building Bayesian Network(BN)-Based System Reliability Model by Dual Genetic Algorithm(DGA)
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作者 游威振 钟小品 《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2015年第6期914-918,共5页
A system reliability model based on Bayesian network(BN)is built via an evolutionary strategy called dual genetic algorithm(DGA).BN is a probabilistic approach to analyze relationships between stochastic events.In con... A system reliability model based on Bayesian network(BN)is built via an evolutionary strategy called dual genetic algorithm(DGA).BN is a probabilistic approach to analyze relationships between stochastic events.In contrast with traditional methods where BN model is built by professionals,DGA is proposed for the automatic analysis of historical data and construction of BN for the estimation of system reliability.The whole solution space of BN structures is searched by DGA and a more accurate BN model is obtained.Efficacy of the proposed method is shown by some literature examples. 展开更多
关键词 bayesian network(BN)model dual genetic algorithm(DGA) system reliability historical data
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Linking Structural Equation Modeling with Bayesian Network and Its Application to Coastal Phytoplankton Dynamics in the Bohai Bay
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作者 XU Xiao-fu SUN Jian +2 位作者 NIE Hong-tao YUAN De-kui TAO Jian-hua 《China Ocean Engineering》 SCIE EI CSCD 2016年第5期733-748,共16页
Bayesian networks (BN) have many advantages over other methods in ecological modeling, and have become an increasingly popular modeling tool. However, BN are flawed in regard to building models based on inadequate e... Bayesian networks (BN) have many advantages over other methods in ecological modeling, and have become an increasingly popular modeling tool. However, BN are flawed in regard to building models based on inadequate existing knowledge. To overcome this limitation, we propose a new method that links BN with structural equation modeling (SEM). In this method, SEM is used to improve the model structure for BN. This method was used to simulate coastal phytoplankton dynamics in the Bohai Bay. We demonstrate that this hybrid approach minimizes the need for expert elicitation, generates more reasonable structures for BN models, and increases the BN model's accuracy and reliability. These results suggest that the inclusion of SEM for testing and verifying the theoretical structure during the initial construction stage improves the effectiveness of BN models, especially for complex eco-environment systems. The results also demonstrate that in the Bohai Bay, while phytoplankton biomass has the greatest influence on phytoplankton dynamics, the impact of nutrients on phytoplankton dynamics is larger than the influence of the physical environment in summer. Furthermore, although the Redfield ratio indicates that phosphorus should be the primary nutrient limiting factor, our results show that silicate plays the most important role in regulating phytoplankton dynamics in the Bohai Bay. 展开更多
关键词 structural equation modeling bayesian networks ecological modeling Bohai Bay phytoplankton dynamics
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Research on Bayesian Network Based User's Interest Model
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作者 ZHANG Weifeng XU Baowen +1 位作者 CUI Zifeng XU Lei 《Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences》 CAS 2007年第5期809-813,共5页
It has very realistic significance for improving the quality of users' accessing information to filter and selectively retrieve the large number of information on the Internet. On the basis of analyzing the existing ... It has very realistic significance for improving the quality of users' accessing information to filter and selectively retrieve the large number of information on the Internet. On the basis of analyzing the existing users' interest models and some basic questions of users' interest (representation, derivation and identification of users' interest), a Bayesian network based users' interest model is given. In this model, the users' interest reduction algorithm based on Markov Blanket model is used to reduce the interest noise, and then users' interested and not interested documents are used to train the Bayesian network. Compared to the simple model, this model has the following advantages like small space requirements, simple reasoning method and high recognition rate. The experiment result shows this model can more appropriately reflect the user's interest, and has higher performance and good usability. 展开更多
关键词 bayesian network interest model feature selection
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Bayesian Network and Factor Analysis for Modeling Pine Wilt Disease Prevalence
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作者 Mingxiang Huang Liang Guo +1 位作者 Jianhua Gong Weijun Yang 《Journal of Software Engineering and Applications》 2013年第3期13-17,共5页
A Bayesian network (BN) model was developed to predict susceptibility to PWD(Pine Wilt Disease). The distribution of PWD was identified using QuickBird and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) images taken at different times... A Bayesian network (BN) model was developed to predict susceptibility to PWD(Pine Wilt Disease). The distribution of PWD was identified using QuickBird and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) images taken at different times. Seven factors that influence the distribution of PWD were extracted from the QuickBird images and were used as the independent variables. The results showed that the BN model predicted PWD with high accuracy. In a sensitivity analysis, elevation (EL), the normal differential vegetation index (NDVI), the distance to settlements (DS) and the distance to roads (DR) were strongly associated with PWD prevalence, and slope (SL) exhibited the weakest association with PWD prevalence. The study showed that BN is an effective tool for modeling PWD prevalence and quantifying the impact of various factors. 展开更多
关键词 PINE WILT Disease bayesian network modelING Factor Analysis
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Hierarchy Bayesian model based services awareness of high-speed optical access networks
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作者 白晖峰 《Optoelectronics Letters》 EI 2018年第2期114-118,共5页
As the speed of optical access networks soars with ever increasing multiple services, the service-supporting ability of optical access networks suffers greatly from the shortage of service awareness. Aiming to solve t... As the speed of optical access networks soars with ever increasing multiple services, the service-supporting ability of optical access networks suffers greatly from the shortage of service awareness. Aiming to solve this problem, a hierarchy Bayesian model based services awareness mechanism is proposed for high-speed optical access networks. This approach builds a so-called hierarchy Bayesian model, according to the structure of typical optical access networks. Moreover, the proposed scheme is able to conduct simple services awareness operation in each optical network unit(ONU) and to perform complex services awareness from the whole view of system in optical line terminal(OLT). Simulation results show that the proposed scheme is able to achieve better quality of services(Qo S), in terms of packet loss rate and time delay. 展开更多
关键词 As Simulation OLT Hierarchy bayesian model based services awareness of high-speed optical access networks
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常规公交风险的SEM与Bayesian Network组合评估方法研究 被引量:4
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作者 宗芳 于萍 +1 位作者 吴挺 陈相茹 《交通信息与安全》 CSCD 北大核心 2018年第4期22-28,共7页
常规公交系统具有载客量大、班次多、线路固定等特点,存在多种安全风险隐患。为综合评估常规公交风险,对国内外554条事故数据分析整理,构建了常规公交风险指标体系。建立了常规公交风险评估的结构方程模型,得到常规公交风险因素对事故... 常规公交系统具有载客量大、班次多、线路固定等特点,存在多种安全风险隐患。为综合评估常规公交风险,对国内外554条事故数据分析整理,构建了常规公交风险指标体系。建立了常规公交风险评估的结构方程模型,得到常规公交风险因素对事故的单向拓扑结构。在结构学习的基础上,利用信息熵理论研究风险因素对预测结果可信度的影响权重,从而进行变量筛选。以失火事故为例利用贝叶斯网络模型进行了城市常规公交风险评估参数学习。研究结果表明,失火事故的主要风险因素为油气泄漏、车内外温度均较高等。在风险因素组合作用下失火事故发生概率范围为0.002 1至0.842 9。所建模型预测精度高,验证了方法的科学性和准确性,可用于进行定量化的常规公交风险评估。 展开更多
关键词 风险评估 常规公交 结构方程模型 贝叶斯网络模型 信息熵
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Ontology Mapping Based on Bayesian Network 被引量:1
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作者 张凌宇 陶佰睿 《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2015年第4期681-687,共7页
Ontology mapping is a key interoperability enabler for the semantic web. In this paper,a new ontology mapping approach called ontology mapping based on Bayesian network( OM-BN) is proposed. OM-BN combines the models o... Ontology mapping is a key interoperability enabler for the semantic web. In this paper,a new ontology mapping approach called ontology mapping based on Bayesian network( OM-BN) is proposed. OM-BN combines the models of ontology and Bayesian Network,and applies the method of Multi-strategy to computing similarity. In OM-BN,the characteristics of ontology,such as tree structure and semantic inclusion relations among concepts,are used during the process of translation from ontology to ontology Bayesian network( OBN). Then the method of Multi-strategy is used to create similarity table( ST) for each concept-node in OBN. Finally,the iterative process of mapping reasoning is used to deduce new mappings from STs,repeatedly. 展开更多
关键词 COMPONENT ontology mapping multi-strategy bayesian network model
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Fault detection and diagnosis for data incomplete industrial systems with new Bayesian network approach 被引量:15
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作者 Zhengdao Zhang Jinlin Zhu Feng Pan 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2013年第3期500-511,共12页
For the fault detection and diagnosis problem in largescale industrial systems, there are two important issues: the missing data samples and the non-Gaussian property of the data. However, most of the existing data-d... For the fault detection and diagnosis problem in largescale industrial systems, there are two important issues: the missing data samples and the non-Gaussian property of the data. However, most of the existing data-driven methods cannot be able to handle both of them. Thus, a new Bayesian network classifier based fault detection and diagnosis method is proposed. At first, a non-imputation method is presented to handle the data incomplete samples, with the property of the proposed Bayesian network classifier, and the missing values can be marginalized in an elegant manner. Furthermore, the Gaussian mixture model is used to approximate the non-Gaussian data with a linear combination of finite Gaussian mixtures, so that the Bayesian network can process the non-Gaussian data in an effective way. Therefore, the entire fault detection and diagnosis method can deal with the high-dimensional incomplete process samples in an efficient and robust way. The diagnosis results are expressed in the manner of probability with the reliability scores. The proposed approach is evaluated with a benchmark problem called the Tennessee Eastman process. The simulation results show the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method in fault detection and diagnosis for large-scale systems with missing measurements. 展开更多
关键词 fault detection and diagnosis bayesian network Gaussian mixture model data incomplete non-imputation.
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Research on the self-defence electronic jamming decision-making based on the discrete dynamic Bayesian network 被引量:7
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作者 Tang Zheng Gao Xiaoguang 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2008年第4期702-708,共7页
The manner and conditions of running the decision-making system with self-defense electronic jamming are given. After proposing the scenario of applying discrete dynamic Bayesian network to the decision making with se... The manner and conditions of running the decision-making system with self-defense electronic jamming are given. After proposing the scenario of applying discrete dynamic Bayesian network to the decision making with self-defense electronic jamming, a decision-making model with self-defense electronic jamming based on the discrete dynamic Bayesian network is established. Then jamming decision inferences by the aid of the algorithm of discrete dynamic Bayesian network are carried on. The simulating result shows that this method is able to synthesize different targets which are not predominant. In this way, various features at the same time, as well as the same feature appearing at different time complement mutually; in addition, the accuracy and reliability of electronic jamming decision making are enhanced significantly. 展开更多
关键词 self-defense electronic jamming discrete dynamic bayesian network decision-making model
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Application of Bayesian Network Learning Methods to Land Resource Evaluation
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作者 HUANG Jiejun HE Xiaorong WAN Youchua 《Wuhan University Journal of Natural Sciences》 EI CAS 2006年第4期1041-1045,共5页
Bayesian network has a powerful ability/or reasoning and semantic representation, which combined with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, with prior knowledge and observed data, and provides an effective w... Bayesian network has a powerful ability/or reasoning and semantic representation, which combined with qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, with prior knowledge and observed data, and provides an effective way to deal with prediction, classification and clustering. Firstly, this paper presented an overview of Bayesian network and its characteristics, and discussed how to learn a Bayesian net- work structure from given data, and then constructed a Bayesian network model for land resource evaluation with expert knowledge and the dataset. The experimental results based on the test dataset are that evaluation accuracy is 87.5%, and Kappa index is 0. 826. All these prove the method is feasible and efficient, and indicate that Bayesian network is a promising approach for land resource evaluation. 展开更多
关键词 bayesian networks data mining land resource evaluation modelS
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融合模糊DEMATEL-ISM-BN的城市燃气管网安全运行影响因素分析
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作者 汪宙峰 何宸锐 +2 位作者 邓斯尹 谢凯宇 刘威 《安全与环境工程》 北大核心 2026年第2期142-153,166,共13页
随着我国城市化进程加速推进,城市燃气管网规模持续扩张,系统复杂性显著提升,燃气管网安全运行面临严峻挑战。为探究城市燃气管网安全运行影响因素间的相互作用关系及影响机理,结合文献调研与典型事故案例,构建了包含18项指标的城市燃... 随着我国城市化进程加速推进,城市燃气管网规模持续扩张,系统复杂性显著提升,燃气管网安全运行面临严峻挑战。为探究城市燃气管网安全运行影响因素间的相互作用关系及影响机理,结合文献调研与典型事故案例,构建了包含18项指标的城市燃气管道安全运行影响因素指标体系,提出了融合模糊决策实验室分析法(decision making trial and evaluation laboratory, DEMATEL)、解释结构模型(interpretive structural modeling, ISM)和贝叶斯网络(Bayesian network, BN)的综合评估模型。该模型基于模糊DEMATEL构建影响因素间的因果图,量化因素间的关联;基于ISM模型实现风险系统的层级解构,揭示风险传导路径;基于GeNie软件平台建立BN模型,实现风险概率的评估与溯源。结果表明:在所构建的指标体系中,防腐层检测周期、阴极保护、地面沉降及服役年限等因素的风险敏感性最高;BN逆向推理揭示最大致因链为“阴极保护失效→检测周期不当→管网运行风险发生”,凸显腐蚀防控关键作用;敏感性分析表明接口质量、设计人员水平等微小扰动可引发显著的风险变化。通过典型事故案例验证发现,该模型具有良好的可靠性与工程适用性,可为燃气管网安全运行风险防控提供理论支撑。 展开更多
关键词 燃气管网 模糊DEMATEL-ISM-BN 解释结构模型(ISM) 贝叶斯网络
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基于FP-Growth算法和贝叶斯模型的坍塌事故致因分析
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作者 李珏 曾敏 《武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版)》 2026年第1期15-21,共7页
为探究建筑施工安全风险,深入分析建筑工程中的坍塌事故风险,通过改进的人因分析和分类系统(HFACS)模型识别出32个坍塌事故的关键致因。同时为深入挖掘事故特征,明确施工坍塌事故的成因机制,采用基于FP-Growth算法的关联规则挖掘方法构... 为探究建筑施工安全风险,深入分析建筑工程中的坍塌事故风险,通过改进的人因分析和分类系统(HFACS)模型识别出32个坍塌事故的关键致因。同时为深入挖掘事故特征,明确施工坍塌事故的成因机制,采用基于FP-Growth算法的关联规则挖掘方法构建贝叶斯网络结构,通过数据驱动的方式训练模型,从而提升坍塌事故推理分析的效率与精度。基于贝叶斯网络的敏感性分析与逆向推理,识别出5类坍塌事故的关键致因及其致因路径。研究结果表明:土方坍塌、建筑物坍塌、拆除工程坍塌和模板坍塌多由不安全行为前提条件造成,脚手架坍塌多由不安全行为前提条件和不安全行为共同造成。通过关键致因链分析可知5类坍塌事故的发生路径,从而对各类事故进行管控。 展开更多
关键词 FP-GROWTH算法 贝叶斯网络 HFACS模型 风险分析 关联规则
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基于ISM-BN方法的民航管制员胜任力研究
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作者 石荣 薛浩宇 +1 位作者 罗渝川 李秀易 《航空计算技术》 2026年第1期36-40,共5页
为深入探究民航管制员胜任力指标之间的内在联系,并为民航管制员选拔与培训提供理论依据,通过文献研究构建了包含16项指标的管制员胜任力体系,运用解释结构模型(ISM)定性分析各指标关系。之后,将解释结构模型拓扑结构映射至贝叶斯网络(B... 为深入探究民航管制员胜任力指标之间的内在联系,并为民航管制员选拔与培训提供理论依据,通过文献研究构建了包含16项指标的管制员胜任力体系,运用解释结构模型(ISM)定性分析各指标关系。之后,将解释结构模型拓扑结构映射至贝叶斯网络(BN),结合相似度聚合专家意见法获取贝叶斯网络参数,构建管制员胜任力贝叶斯网络模型。基于该模型,开展因果推理以分析当前胜任力现状,并通过诊断推理识别出3项核心能力与3项基础能力。通过ISM-BN方法对管制员胜任力进行了系统建模与分析,识别了关键胜任力指标,为胜任力研究引入新的方法。 展开更多
关键词 胜任力 民航管制员 解释结构模型 贝叶斯网络 相似度聚合 ISM-BN方法
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基于ISM-BN-FDNA的URT运营安全系统韧性评价
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作者 樊燕燕 牛瑞 《铁道科学与工程学报》 北大核心 2026年第2期888-901,共14页
为评估城市轨道交通(urban rail transit,URT)运营安全系统应对外部风险时的韧性能力(即抵抗干扰与快速恢复的能力),提出一种基于功能依赖网络分析(functional dependency network analysis,FDNA)与解释结构模型(interpretative structu... 为评估城市轨道交通(urban rail transit,URT)运营安全系统应对外部风险时的韧性能力(即抵抗干扰与快速恢复的能力),提出一种基于功能依赖网络分析(functional dependency network analysis,FDNA)与解释结构模型(interpretative structural modeling,ISM)的集成建模方法。在系统化分析影响因素的基础上,以ISM构建并优化URT运营安全系统的网络结构,通过FDNA刻画系统内部元素之间的动态影响关系,利用GeNIe软件中贝叶斯网络(Bayesian network,BN)的动态分析量化FDNA模型参数,构建URT运营安全系统韧性评价模型,最后采用BN的敏感性分析研究影响运营安全系统的关键因素和关键路径,确定需优先管控的关键环节,为提升系统韧性、优化安全管理提供科学依据。以兰州市URT为案例,将实际调研数据代入模型分析,研究结果表明:1)兰州URT运营安全系统具有较强抗干扰能力与恢复能力,整体韧性等级为“较高韧性”;2)敏感性分析表明,设备管理、供电、车辆、线路设施及自然环境因素是影响URT运营安全系统韧性的最关键因素,而机电设施、通信信号设施、制度、工作人员及乘客因素等为次关键因素。据此,建议兰州市URT运营公司应重点关注设备监测及气象预报预警信息,加强工作人员检修技能以及提升应急响应能力;其次,开展乘客安全宣传教育;同时,应完善应急管理机制和资源协调体系,以全面提升兰州市URT运营安全系统韧性。研究为URT运营安全系统的韧性提升提供了理论框架与实践路径,为进一步保障城市轨道交通系统安全高效运行提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 城市轨道交通(URT) 安全系统韧性 功能依赖网络分析(FDNA) 解释结构模型(ISM) 贝叶斯网络(BN)
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地铁深基坑施工坍塌风险耦合研究
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作者 方俊 黄金艳 +1 位作者 徐小琴 王景昌 《安全与环境学报》 北大核心 2026年第2期483-495,共13页
为实现地铁深基坑施工坍塌事故多因素耦合致灾机制解析与精准风险管控策略制定,提出了一种基于N-K模型和贝叶斯网络(Bayesian Network,BN)的定量耦合风险评估方法。通过对113份地铁深基坑施工坍塌事故报告的分析,识别出5类主要风险因素... 为实现地铁深基坑施工坍塌事故多因素耦合致灾机制解析与精准风险管控策略制定,提出了一种基于N-K模型和贝叶斯网络(Bayesian Network,BN)的定量耦合风险评估方法。通过对113份地铁深基坑施工坍塌事故报告的分析,识别出5类主要风险因素(人、物、管、环和技)。通过N-K模型解构多风险耦合效应,揭示风险耦合演化规律,基于N-K模型计算结果确定贝叶斯网络模型结构及参数,利用贝叶斯网络敏感性分析评估风险因素对显著风险耦合情境的影响,逆向溯源关键风险因素。结果表明,地铁深基坑施工坍塌风险随耦合因素种类的增加而变大,其中人-物-管-环-技风险耦合值最大、发生概率最高。风险因素c_(4)(施工现场安全监管和隐患排查不到位)、d_(1)(地质水文条件恶劣)、b_(4)(材料、构件质量或强度不合格)、a_(1)(安全风险意识差)和a_(5)(违规违章施工)在高风险耦合情境中表现出高敏感性,对地铁深基坑施工坍塌风险耦合起着关键作用。 展开更多
关键词 安全工程 地铁深基坑 施工坍塌 风险耦合 N-K模型 贝叶斯网络
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