Gastrointestinal cancers,including esophageal,gastric,colorectal,liver,gallbladder,cholangiocarcinoma,and pancreatic cancers,pose a significant global health challenge due to their high mortality rates and poor progno...Gastrointestinal cancers,including esophageal,gastric,colorectal,liver,gallbladder,cholangiocarcinoma,and pancreatic cancers,pose a significant global health challenge due to their high mortality rates and poor prognosis,particularly when diagnosed at advanced stages.These malignancies,characterized by diverse clinical presentations and etiologies,require innovative approaches for improved management.Bayesian networks(BN)have emerged as a powerful tool in this field,offering the ability to manage uncertainty,integrate heterogeneous data sources,and support clinical decision-making.This review explores the application of BN in addressing critical challenges in gastrointestinal cancers,including the identification of risk factors,early detection,treatment optimization,and prognosis prediction.By integrating genetic predispositions,lifestyle factors,and clinical data,BN hold the potential to enhance survival rates and improve quality of life through personalized treatment strategies.Despite their promise,the widespread adoption of BN is hindered by challenges such as data quality limitations,computational complexities,and the need for greater clinical acceptance.The review concludes with future research directions,emphasizing the development of advanced BN algorithms,the integration of multi-omics data,and strategies to ensure clinical applicability,aiming to fully realize the potential of BN in personalized medicine for gastrointestinal cancers.展开更多
Traffic emissions have become the major air pollution source in urban areas.Therefore,understanding the highly non-stational and complex impact of traffic factors on air quality is very important for building air qual...Traffic emissions have become the major air pollution source in urban areas.Therefore,understanding the highly non-stational and complex impact of traffic factors on air quality is very important for building air quality prediction models.Using real-world air pollutant data from Taipei City,this study integrates diverse factors,including traffic flow,speed,rainfall patterns,andmeteorological factors.We constructed a Bayesian network probabilitymodel based on rainfall events as a big data analysis framework to investigate understand traffic factor causality relationships and condition probabilities for meteorological factors and air pollutant concentrations.Generalized Additive Model(GAM)verified non-linear relationships between traffic factors and air pollutants.Consequently,we propose a long short term memory(LSTM)model to predict airborne pollutant concentrations.This study propose a new approach of air pollutants and meteorological variable analysis procedure by considering both rainfall amount and patterns.Results indicate improved air quality when controlling vehicle speed above 40 km/h and maintaining an average vehicle flow<1200 vehicles per hour.This study also classified rainfall events into four types depending on its characteristic.Wet deposition from varied rainfall types significantly affects air quality,with TypeⅠrainfall events(long-duration heavy rain)having the most pronounced impact.An LSTM model incorporating GAM and Bayesian network outcomes yields excellent performance,achieving correlation R^(2)>0.9 and 0.8 for first and second order air pollutants,i.e.,CO,NO,NO_(2),and NO_(x);and O_(3),PM_(10),and PM_(2.5),respectively.展开更多
The deepwater subsea wellhead(SW)system is the foundation for the construction of oil and gas wells and the crucial channel for operation.During riser connection operation,the SW system is subjected to cyclic dynamic ...The deepwater subsea wellhead(SW)system is the foundation for the construction of oil and gas wells and the crucial channel for operation.During riser connection operation,the SW system is subjected to cyclic dynamic loads which cause fatigue damage to the SW system,and continuously accumulated fatigue damage leads to fatigue failure of the SW system,rupture,and even blowout accidents.This paper proposes a hybrid Bayesian network(HBN)-based dynamic reliability assessment approach for deepwater SW systems during their service life.In the proposed approach,the relationship between the accumulation of fatigue damage and the fatigue failure probability of the SW system is predicted,only considering normal conditions.The HBN model,which includes the accumulation of fatigue damage under normal conditions and the other factors affecting the fatigue of the SW system,is subsequently developed.When predictive and diagnostic analysis techniques are adopted,the dynamic reliability of the SW system is achieved,and the most influential factors are determined.Finally,corresponding safety control measures are proposed to improve the reliability of the SW system effectively.The results illustrate that the fatigue failure speed increases rapidly when the accumulation fatigue damage is larger than 0.45 under normal conditions and that the reliability of the SW system is larger than 94%within the design life.展开更多
Rock mass quality serves as a vital index for predicting the stability and safety status of rock tunnel faces.In tunneling practice,the rock mass quality is often assessed via a combination of qualitative and quantita...Rock mass quality serves as a vital index for predicting the stability and safety status of rock tunnel faces.In tunneling practice,the rock mass quality is often assessed via a combination of qualitative and quantitative parameters.However,due to the harsh on-site construction conditions,it is rather difficult to obtain some of the evaluation parameters which are essential for the rock mass quality prediction.In this study,a novel improved Swin Transformer is proposed to detect,segment,and quantify rock mass characteristic parameters such as water leakage,fractures,weak interlayers.The site experiment results demonstrate that the improved Swin Transformer achieves optimal segmentation results and achieving accuracies of 92%,81%,and 86%for water leakage,fractures,and weak interlayers,respectively.A multisource rock tunnel face characteristic(RTFC)dataset includes 11 parameters for predicting rock mass quality is established.Considering the limitations in predictive performance of incomplete evaluation parameters exist in this dataset,a novel tree-augmented naive Bayesian network(BN)is proposed to address the challenge of the incomplete dataset and achieved a prediction accuracy of 88%.In comparison with other commonly used Machine Learning models the proposed BN-based approach proved an improved performance on predicting the rock mass quality with the incomplete dataset.By utilizing the established BN,a further sensitivity analysis is conducted to quantitatively evaluate the importance of the various parameters,results indicate that the rock strength and fractures parameter exert the most significant influence on rock mass quality.展开更多
BACKGROUND Portal hypertension(PHT),primarily induced by cirrhosis,manifests severe symptoms impacting patient survival.Although transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)is a critical intervention for managi...BACKGROUND Portal hypertension(PHT),primarily induced by cirrhosis,manifests severe symptoms impacting patient survival.Although transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)is a critical intervention for managing PHT,it carries risks like hepatic encephalopathy,thus affecting patient survival prognosis.To our knowledge,existing prognostic models for post-TIPS survival in patients with PHT fail to account for the interplay among and collective impact of various prognostic factors on outcomes.Consequently,the development of an innovative modeling approach is essential to address this limitation.AIM To develop and validate a Bayesian network(BN)-based survival prediction model for patients with cirrhosis-induced PHT having undergone TIPS.METHODS The clinical data of 393 patients with cirrhosis-induced PHT who underwent TIPS surgery at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University between January 2015 and May 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.Variables were selected using Cox and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression methods,and a BN-based model was established and evaluated to predict survival in patients having undergone TIPS surgery for PHT.RESULTS Variable selection revealed the following as key factors impacting survival:age,ascites,hypertension,indications for TIPS,postoperative portal vein pressure(post-PVP),aspartate aminotransferase,alkaline phosphatase,total bilirubin,prealbumin,the Child-Pugh grade,and the model for end-stage liver disease(MELD)score.Based on the above-mentioned variables,a BN-based 2-year survival prognostic prediction model was constructed,which identified the following factors to be directly linked to the survival time:age,ascites,indications for TIPS,concurrent hypertension,post-PVP,the Child-Pugh grade,and the MELD score.The Bayesian information criterion was 3589.04,and 10-fold cross-validation indicated an average log-likelihood loss of 5.55 with a standard deviation of 0.16.The model’s accuracy,precision,recall,and F1 score were 0.90,0.92,0.97,and 0.95 respectively,with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve being 0.72.CONCLUSION This study successfully developed a BN-based survival prediction model with good predictive capabilities.It offers valuable insights for treatment strategies and prognostic evaluations in patients having undergone TIPS surgery for PHT.展开更多
Critical infrastructure systems(CISs)play a key role in the socio-economic activity of a society,but are exposed to an array of disruptive events that can greatly impact their function and performance.Therefore,unders...Critical infrastructure systems(CISs)play a key role in the socio-economic activity of a society,but are exposed to an array of disruptive events that can greatly impact their function and performance.Therefore,understanding the underlying behaviors of CISs and their response to perturbations is needed to better prepare for,and mitigate the impact of,future disruptions.Resilience is one characteristic of CISs that influences the extent and severity of the impact induced by extreme events.Resilience is often dissected into four dimensions:robustness,redundancy,resourcefulness,and rapidity,known as the“4Rs”.This study proposes a framework to assess the resilience of an infrastructure network in terms of these four dimensions under optimal resource allocation strategies and incorporates interdependencies between different CISs,with resilience considered as a stochastic variable.The proposed framework combines an agent-based infrastructure interdependency model,advanced optimization algorithms,Bayesian network techniques,and Monte Carlo simulation to assess the resilience of an infrastructure network.The applicability and flexibility of the proposed framework is demonstrated with a case study using a network of CISs in Austin,Texas,where the resilience of the network is assessed and a“what-if”analysis is performed.展开更多
Bayesian networks are a powerful class of graphical decision models used to represent causal relationships among variables.However,the reliability and integrity of learned Bayesian network models are highly dependent ...Bayesian networks are a powerful class of graphical decision models used to represent causal relationships among variables.However,the reliability and integrity of learned Bayesian network models are highly dependent on the quality of incoming data streams.One of the primary challenges with Bayesian networks is their vulnerability to adversarial data poisoning attacks,wherein malicious data is injected into the training dataset to negatively influence the Bayesian network models and impair their performance.In this research paper,we propose an efficient framework for detecting data poisoning attacks against Bayesian network structure learning algorithms.Our framework utilizes latent variables to quantify the amount of belief between every two nodes in each causal model over time.We use our innovative methodology to tackle an important issue with data poisoning assaults in the context of Bayesian networks.With regard to four different forms of data poisoning attacks,we specifically aim to strengthen the security and dependability of Bayesian network structure learning techniques,such as the PC algorithm.By doing this,we explore the complexity of this area and offer workablemethods for identifying and reducing these sneaky dangers.Additionally,our research investigates one particular use case,the“Visit to Asia Network.”The practical consequences of using uncertainty as a way to spot cases of data poisoning are explored in this inquiry,which is of utmost relevance.Our results demonstrate the promising efficacy of latent variables in detecting and mitigating the threat of data poisoning attacks.Additionally,our proposed latent-based framework proves to be sensitive in detecting malicious data poisoning attacks in the context of stream data.展开更多
To assess road traffic safety risk in civil aviation airports and develop effective accident prevention measures,this study proposed a risk assessment method based on accident tree and Bayesian network for airport air...To assess road traffic safety risk in civil aviation airports and develop effective accident prevention measures,this study proposed a risk assessment method based on accident tree and Bayesian network for airport aircraft activity areas.It identified influencing factors in the aircraft activity area from the perspectives of person-vehicle-road-environment-management and analyzed their relationships.The Bayesian network was utilized to determine initial probabilities for each influencing factor.Findings indicated a relatively high overall safety level in the airport's road traffic system.Accident trees were employed to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze common human-vehicle accident patterns.The initial probabilities obtained from the Bayesian network served as basic event probabilities in the accident tree to determine the occurrence probability of the top event.Taking a 4F airport in China as an example,accident cause analysis identified five important risk sources in human-vehicle accidents,including blind spots for special vehicles,illegal driving by drivers,pedestrians violating regulations,passengers entering restricted areas,and blind spots at intersections.Corresponding safety management measures were formulated.The study concluded that the integration of Bayesian networks and accident trees effectively determines accident probabilities and offers specific solutions,thus playing a crucial role in enhancing road traffic safety management within aviation airports.展开更多
The use of dynamic programming(DP)algorithms to learn Bayesian network structures is limited by their high space complexity and difficulty in learning the structure of large-scale networks.Therefore,this study propose...The use of dynamic programming(DP)algorithms to learn Bayesian network structures is limited by their high space complexity and difficulty in learning the structure of large-scale networks.Therefore,this study proposes a DP algorithm based on node block sequence constraints.The proposed algorithm constrains the traversal process of the parent graph by using the M-sequence matrix to considerably reduce the time consumption and space complexity by pruning the traversal process of the order graph using the node block sequence.Experimental results show that compared with existing DP algorithms,the proposed algorithm can obtain learning results more efficiently with less than 1%loss of accuracy,and can be used for learning larger-scale networks.展开更多
A novel bandwidth prediction and control scheme is proposed for video transmission over an ad boc network. The scheme is based on cross-layer, feedback, and Bayesian network techniques. The impacts of video quality ar...A novel bandwidth prediction and control scheme is proposed for video transmission over an ad boc network. The scheme is based on cross-layer, feedback, and Bayesian network techniques. The impacts of video quality are formulized and deduced. The relevant factors are obtained by a cross-layer mechanism or Feedback method. According to these relevant factors, the variable set and the Bayesian network topology are determined. Then a Bayesian network prediction model is constructed. The results of the prediction can be used as the bandwidth of the mobile ad hoc network （MANET）. According to the bandwidth, the video encoder is controlled to dynamically adjust and encode the right bit rates of a real-time video stream. Integrated simulation of a video streaming communication system is implemented to validate the proposed solution. In contrast to the conventional transfer scheme, the results of the experiment indicate that the proposed scheme can make the best use of the network bandwidth; there are considerable improvements in the packet loss and the visual quality of real-time video.K展开更多
The dynamic wireless communication network is a complex network that needs to consider various influence factors including communication devices,radio propagation,network topology,and dynamic behaviors.Existing works ...The dynamic wireless communication network is a complex network that needs to consider various influence factors including communication devices,radio propagation,network topology,and dynamic behaviors.Existing works focus on suggesting simplified reliability analysis methods for these dynamic networks.As one of the most popular modeling methodologies,the dynamic Bayesian network(DBN)is proposed.However,it is insufficient for the wireless communication network which contains temporal and non-temporal events.To this end,we present a modeling methodology for a generalized continuous time Bayesian network(CTBN)with a 2-state conditional probability table(CPT).Moreover,a comprehensive reliability analysis method for communication devices and radio propagation is suggested.The proposed methodology is verified by a reliability analysis of a real wireless communication network.展开更多
For the fault detection and diagnosis problem in largescale industrial systems, there are two important issues： the missing data samples and the non-Gaussian property of the data. However, most of the existing data-d...For the fault detection and diagnosis problem in largescale industrial systems, there are two important issues： the missing data samples and the non-Gaussian property of the data. However, most of the existing data-driven methods cannot be able to handle both of them. Thus, a new Bayesian network classifier based fault detection and diagnosis method is proposed. At first, a non-imputation method is presented to handle the data incomplete samples, with the property of the proposed Bayesian network classifier, and the missing values can be marginalized in an elegant manner. Furthermore, the Gaussian mixture model is used to approximate the non-Gaussian data with a linear combination of finite Gaussian mixtures, so that the Bayesian network can process the non-Gaussian data in an effective way. Therefore, the entire fault detection and diagnosis method can deal with the high-dimensional incomplete process samples in an efficient and robust way. The diagnosis results are expressed in the manner of probability with the reliability scores. The proposed approach is evaluated with a benchmark problem called the Tennessee Eastman process. The simulation results show the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method in fault detection and diagnosis for large-scale systems with missing measurements.展开更多
The command and control（C2） is a decision-making process based on human cognition,which contains operational,physical,and human characteristics,so it takes on uncertainty and complexity.As a decision support approac...The command and control（C2） is a decision-making process based on human cognition,which contains operational,physical,and human characteristics,so it takes on uncertainty and complexity.As a decision support approach,Bayesian networks（BNs） provide a framework in which a decision is made by combining the experts＇ knowledge and the specific data.In addition,an expert system represented by human cognitive framework is adopted to express the real-time decision-making process of the decision maker.The combination of the Bayesian decision support and human cognitive framework in the C2 of a specific application field is modeled and executed by colored Petri nets（CPNs）,and the consequences of execution manifest such combination can perfectly present the decision-making process in C2.展开更多
To analyze and evaluate the testability design of equipment, a testability analysis method based on Bayesian network inference model is proposed in the paper. The model can adequately apply testability information and...To analyze and evaluate the testability design of equipment, a testability analysis method based on Bayesian network inference model is proposed in the paper. The model can adequately apply testability information and many uncertainty information of design and maintenance process, so it can analyze testability by and large from Bayesian inference. The detailed procedure to analyze and evaluate testability for equipments by Bayesian network is given in the paper. Its modeling process is simple, its formulation is visual, and the analysis results are more reliable than others. Examples prove that the analysis method based on Bayesian network inference can be applied to testability analysis and evaluation for complex equipments.展开更多
When the training data are insufficient, especially when only a small sample size of data is available, domain knowledge will be taken into the process of learning parameters to improve the performance of the Bayesian...When the training data are insufficient, especially when only a small sample size of data is available, domain knowledge will be taken into the process of learning parameters to improve the performance of the Bayesian networks. In this paper, a new monotonic constraint model is proposed to represent a type of common domain knowledge. And then, the monotonic constraint estimation algorithm is proposed to learn the parameters with the monotonic constraint model. In order to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed algorithm, series of experiments are carried out. The experiment results show that the proposed algorithm is able to obtain more accurate parameters compared to some existing algorithms while the complexity is not the highest.展开更多
One of the major factors inhibiting the construction of deep underground projects is the risk posed by rockbursts.A study was conducted on the access tunnel of the Shuangjiangkou hydropower station to determine the ev...One of the major factors inhibiting the construction of deep underground projects is the risk posed by rockbursts.A study was conducted on the access tunnel of the Shuangjiangkou hydropower station to determine the evolutionary mechanism of microfractures within the surrounding rock mass during rockburst development and develop a rockburst warning model.The study area was chosen through the combination of field studies with an analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of microseismic(MS)events.The moment tensor inversion method was adopted to study rockburst mechanism,and a dynamic Bayesian network(DBN)was applied to investigating the sensitivity of MS source parameters for rockburst warnings.A MS multivariable rockburst warning model was proposed and validated using two case studies.The results indicate that fractures in the surrounding rock mass during the development of strain-structure rockbursts initially show shear failure and are then followed by tensile failure.The effectiveness of the DBN-based rockburst warning model was demonstrated using self-validation and K-fold cross-validation.Moment magnitude and source radius are the most sensitive factors based on an investigation of the influence on the parent and child nodes in the model,which can serve as important standards for rockburst warnings.The proposed rockburst warning model was found to be effective when applied to two actual projects.展开更多
Ordering based search methods have advantages over graph based search methods for structure learning of Bayesian networks in terms on the efficiency. With the aim of further increasing the accuracy of ordering based s...Ordering based search methods have advantages over graph based search methods for structure learning of Bayesian networks in terms on the efficiency. With the aim of further increasing the accuracy of ordering based search methods, we first propose to increase the search space, which can facilitate escaping from the local optima. We present our search operators with majorizations, which are easy to implement. Experiments show that the proposed algorithm can obtain significantly more accurate results. With regard to the problem of the decrease on efficiency due to the increase of the search space, we then propose to add path priors as constraints into the swap process. We analyze the coefficient which may influence the performance of the proposed algorithm, the experiments show that the constraints can enhance the efficiency greatly, while has little effect on the accuracy. The final experiments show that, compared to other competitive methods, the proposed algorithm can find better solutions while holding high efficiency at the same time on both synthetic and real data sets.展开更多
The manner and conditions of running the decision-making system with self-defense electronic jamming are given. After proposing the scenario of applying discrete dynamic Bayesian network to the decision making with se...The manner and conditions of running the decision-making system with self-defense electronic jamming are given. After proposing the scenario of applying discrete dynamic Bayesian network to the decision making with self-defense electronic jamming, a decision-making model with self-defense electronic jamming based on the discrete dynamic Bayesian network is established. Then jamming decision inferences by the aid of the algorithm of discrete dynamic Bayesian network are carried on. The simulating result shows that this method is able to synthesize different targets which are not predominant. In this way, various features at the same time, as well as the same feature appearing at different time complement mutually; in addition, the accuracy and reliability of electronic jamming decision making are enhanced significantly.展开更多
This paper presents a new approach for offshore risk analysis that is capable of dealing with linguistic probabilities in Bayesian networks （ BNs）. In this paper, linguistic probabilities are used to describe occurr...This paper presents a new approach for offshore risk analysis that is capable of dealing with linguistic probabilities in Bayesian networks （ BNs）. In this paper, linguistic probabilities are used to describe occurrence likelihood of hazardous events that may cause possible accidents in offshore operations. In order to use fuzzy information, an f-weighted valuation function is proposed to transform linguistic judgements into crisp probability distributions which can be easily put into a BN to model causal relationships among risk factors. The use of linguistic variables makes it easier for human experts to express their knowledge, and the transformation of linguistic judgements into crisp probabilities can significantly save the cost of computation, modifying and maintaining a BN model. The flexibility of the method allows for multiple forms of information to be used to quantify model relationships, including formally assessed expert opinion when quantitative data are lacking, or when only qualitative or vague statements can be made. The model is a modular representation of uncertain knowledge caused due to randomness, vagueness and ignorance. This makes the risk analysis of offshore engineering systems more functional and easier in many assessment contexts. Specifically, the proposed f-weighted valuation function takes into account not only the dominating values, but also the a-level values that are ignored by conventional valuation methods. A case study of the collision risk between a Floating Production, Storage and Off-loading （FPSO） unit and the anthorised vessels due to human elements during operation is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.展开更多
基金Supported by Open Funds for Shaanxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Infection and Immune Diseases,No.2023-KFMS-1.
文摘Gastrointestinal cancers,including esophageal,gastric,colorectal,liver,gallbladder,cholangiocarcinoma,and pancreatic cancers,pose a significant global health challenge due to their high mortality rates and poor prognosis,particularly when diagnosed at advanced stages.These malignancies,characterized by diverse clinical presentations and etiologies,require innovative approaches for improved management.Bayesian networks(BN)have emerged as a powerful tool in this field,offering the ability to manage uncertainty,integrate heterogeneous data sources,and support clinical decision-making.This review explores the application of BN in addressing critical challenges in gastrointestinal cancers,including the identification of risk factors,early detection,treatment optimization,and prognosis prediction.By integrating genetic predispositions,lifestyle factors,and clinical data,BN hold the potential to enhance survival rates and improve quality of life through personalized treatment strategies.Despite their promise,the widespread adoption of BN is hindered by challenges such as data quality limitations,computational complexities,and the need for greater clinical acceptance.The review concludes with future research directions,emphasizing the development of advanced BN algorithms,the integration of multi-omics data,and strategies to ensure clinical applicability,aiming to fully realize the potential of BN in personalized medicine for gastrointestinal cancers.
基金supported by the Ministry of Environment(Environmental Protection Administration),Taiwan(Projects EPA-106-L103-02-A022,EPA-106-L102-02-A142)the"National"Science and Technology Council(Ministry of Science and Technology),Taiwan(Nos.108-2625-M-008-002,108-2119-M-008-003,108-2636-E-008-004,109-2636-E-008-008,110-2636-E-008-006,111-2636-E-008-014,and 112-2636-E-008-005(Young Scholar Fellowship Program),112-2119-M-008-010,and 108-2638-E-008-001-MY2(Shackleton Program Grant)).
文摘Traffic emissions have become the major air pollution source in urban areas.Therefore,understanding the highly non-stational and complex impact of traffic factors on air quality is very important for building air quality prediction models.Using real-world air pollutant data from Taipei City,this study integrates diverse factors,including traffic flow,speed,rainfall patterns,andmeteorological factors.We constructed a Bayesian network probabilitymodel based on rainfall events as a big data analysis framework to investigate understand traffic factor causality relationships and condition probabilities for meteorological factors and air pollutant concentrations.Generalized Additive Model(GAM)verified non-linear relationships between traffic factors and air pollutants.Consequently,we propose a long short term memory(LSTM)model to predict airborne pollutant concentrations.This study propose a new approach of air pollutants and meteorological variable analysis procedure by considering both rainfall amount and patterns.Results indicate improved air quality when controlling vehicle speed above 40 km/h and maintaining an average vehicle flow<1200 vehicles per hour.This study also classified rainfall events into four types depending on its characteristic.Wet deposition from varied rainfall types significantly affects air quality,with TypeⅠrainfall events(long-duration heavy rain)having the most pronounced impact.An LSTM model incorporating GAM and Bayesian network outcomes yields excellent performance,achieving correlation R^(2)>0.9 and 0.8 for first and second order air pollutants,i.e.,CO,NO,NO_(2),and NO_(x);and O_(3),PM_(10),and PM_(2.5),respectively.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52071337)the Research Initiation Funds of Zhejiang University of Science and Technology(Grant No.F701102N06)+2 种基金the High-tech Ship Research Projects Sponsored by MIIT(Grant No.CBG2N21-4-2-5)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2022YFC2806300)the Marine Economy Development(Six Marine Industries)Special Foundation of the Department of Natural Resources of Guangdong Province(Grant No.GDNRC[2023]50).
文摘The deepwater subsea wellhead(SW)system is the foundation for the construction of oil and gas wells and the crucial channel for operation.During riser connection operation,the SW system is subjected to cyclic dynamic loads which cause fatigue damage to the SW system,and continuously accumulated fatigue damage leads to fatigue failure of the SW system,rupture,and even blowout accidents.This paper proposes a hybrid Bayesian network(HBN)-based dynamic reliability assessment approach for deepwater SW systems during their service life.In the proposed approach,the relationship between the accumulation of fatigue damage and the fatigue failure probability of the SW system is predicted,only considering normal conditions.The HBN model,which includes the accumulation of fatigue damage under normal conditions and the other factors affecting the fatigue of the SW system,is subsequently developed.When predictive and diagnostic analysis techniques are adopted,the dynamic reliability of the SW system is achieved,and the most influential factors are determined.Finally,corresponding safety control measures are proposed to improve the reliability of the SW system effectively.The results illustrate that the fatigue failure speed increases rapidly when the accumulation fatigue damage is larger than 0.45 under normal conditions and that the reliability of the SW system is larger than 94%within the design life.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.52279107 and 52379106)the Qingdao Guoxin Jiaozhou Bay Second Submarine Tunnel Co.,Ltd.,the Academician and Expert Workstation of Yunnan Province(No.202205AF150015)the Science and Technology Innovation Project of YCIC Group Co.,Ltd.(No.YCIC-YF-2022-15)。
文摘Rock mass quality serves as a vital index for predicting the stability and safety status of rock tunnel faces.In tunneling practice,the rock mass quality is often assessed via a combination of qualitative and quantitative parameters.However,due to the harsh on-site construction conditions,it is rather difficult to obtain some of the evaluation parameters which are essential for the rock mass quality prediction.In this study,a novel improved Swin Transformer is proposed to detect,segment,and quantify rock mass characteristic parameters such as water leakage,fractures,weak interlayers.The site experiment results demonstrate that the improved Swin Transformer achieves optimal segmentation results and achieving accuracies of 92%,81%,and 86%for water leakage,fractures,and weak interlayers,respectively.A multisource rock tunnel face characteristic(RTFC)dataset includes 11 parameters for predicting rock mass quality is established.Considering the limitations in predictive performance of incomplete evaluation parameters exist in this dataset,a novel tree-augmented naive Bayesian network(BN)is proposed to address the challenge of the incomplete dataset and achieved a prediction accuracy of 88%.In comparison with other commonly used Machine Learning models the proposed BN-based approach proved an improved performance on predicting the rock mass quality with the incomplete dataset.By utilizing the established BN,a further sensitivity analysis is conducted to quantitatively evaluate the importance of the various parameters,results indicate that the rock strength and fractures parameter exert the most significant influence on rock mass quality.
基金Supported by the Chinese Nursing Association,No.ZHKY202111Scientific Research Program of School of Nursing,Chongqing Medical University,No.20230307Chongqing Science and Health Joint Medical Research Program,No.2024MSXM063.
文摘BACKGROUND Portal hypertension(PHT),primarily induced by cirrhosis,manifests severe symptoms impacting patient survival.Although transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)is a critical intervention for managing PHT,it carries risks like hepatic encephalopathy,thus affecting patient survival prognosis.To our knowledge,existing prognostic models for post-TIPS survival in patients with PHT fail to account for the interplay among and collective impact of various prognostic factors on outcomes.Consequently,the development of an innovative modeling approach is essential to address this limitation.AIM To develop and validate a Bayesian network(BN)-based survival prediction model for patients with cirrhosis-induced PHT having undergone TIPS.METHODS The clinical data of 393 patients with cirrhosis-induced PHT who underwent TIPS surgery at the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University between January 2015 and May 2022 were retrospectively analyzed.Variables were selected using Cox and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression methods,and a BN-based model was established and evaluated to predict survival in patients having undergone TIPS surgery for PHT.RESULTS Variable selection revealed the following as key factors impacting survival:age,ascites,hypertension,indications for TIPS,postoperative portal vein pressure(post-PVP),aspartate aminotransferase,alkaline phosphatase,total bilirubin,prealbumin,the Child-Pugh grade,and the model for end-stage liver disease(MELD)score.Based on the above-mentioned variables,a BN-based 2-year survival prognostic prediction model was constructed,which identified the following factors to be directly linked to the survival time:age,ascites,indications for TIPS,concurrent hypertension,post-PVP,the Child-Pugh grade,and the MELD score.The Bayesian information criterion was 3589.04,and 10-fold cross-validation indicated an average log-likelihood loss of 5.55 with a standard deviation of 0.16.The model’s accuracy,precision,recall,and F1 score were 0.90,0.92,0.97,and 0.95 respectively,with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve being 0.72.CONCLUSION This study successfully developed a BN-based survival prediction model with good predictive capabilities.It offers valuable insights for treatment strategies and prognostic evaluations in patients having undergone TIPS surgery for PHT.
文摘Critical infrastructure systems(CISs)play a key role in the socio-economic activity of a society,but are exposed to an array of disruptive events that can greatly impact their function and performance.Therefore,understanding the underlying behaviors of CISs and their response to perturbations is needed to better prepare for,and mitigate the impact of,future disruptions.Resilience is one characteristic of CISs that influences the extent and severity of the impact induced by extreme events.Resilience is often dissected into four dimensions:robustness,redundancy,resourcefulness,and rapidity,known as the“4Rs”.This study proposes a framework to assess the resilience of an infrastructure network in terms of these four dimensions under optimal resource allocation strategies and incorporates interdependencies between different CISs,with resilience considered as a stochastic variable.The proposed framework combines an agent-based infrastructure interdependency model,advanced optimization algorithms,Bayesian network techniques,and Monte Carlo simulation to assess the resilience of an infrastructure network.The applicability and flexibility of the proposed framework is demonstrated with a case study using a network of CISs in Austin,Texas,where the resilience of the network is assessed and a“what-if”analysis is performed.
文摘Bayesian networks are a powerful class of graphical decision models used to represent causal relationships among variables.However,the reliability and integrity of learned Bayesian network models are highly dependent on the quality of incoming data streams.One of the primary challenges with Bayesian networks is their vulnerability to adversarial data poisoning attacks,wherein malicious data is injected into the training dataset to negatively influence the Bayesian network models and impair their performance.In this research paper,we propose an efficient framework for detecting data poisoning attacks against Bayesian network structure learning algorithms.Our framework utilizes latent variables to quantify the amount of belief between every two nodes in each causal model over time.We use our innovative methodology to tackle an important issue with data poisoning assaults in the context of Bayesian networks.With regard to four different forms of data poisoning attacks,we specifically aim to strengthen the security and dependability of Bayesian network structure learning techniques,such as the PC algorithm.By doing this,we explore the complexity of this area and offer workablemethods for identifying and reducing these sneaky dangers.Additionally,our research investigates one particular use case,the“Visit to Asia Network.”The practical consequences of using uncertainty as a way to spot cases of data poisoning are explored in this inquiry,which is of utmost relevance.Our results demonstrate the promising efficacy of latent variables in detecting and mitigating the threat of data poisoning attacks.Additionally,our proposed latent-based framework proves to be sensitive in detecting malicious data poisoning attacks in the context of stream data.
文摘To assess road traffic safety risk in civil aviation airports and develop effective accident prevention measures,this study proposed a risk assessment method based on accident tree and Bayesian network for airport aircraft activity areas.It identified influencing factors in the aircraft activity area from the perspectives of person-vehicle-road-environment-management and analyzed their relationships.The Bayesian network was utilized to determine initial probabilities for each influencing factor.Findings indicated a relatively high overall safety level in the airport's road traffic system.Accident trees were employed to qualitatively and quantitatively analyze common human-vehicle accident patterns.The initial probabilities obtained from the Bayesian network served as basic event probabilities in the accident tree to determine the occurrence probability of the top event.Taking a 4F airport in China as an example,accident cause analysis identified five important risk sources in human-vehicle accidents,including blind spots for special vehicles,illegal driving by drivers,pedestrians violating regulations,passengers entering restricted areas,and blind spots at intersections.Corresponding safety management measures were formulated.The study concluded that the integration of Bayesian networks and accident trees effectively determines accident probabilities and offers specific solutions,thus playing a crucial role in enhancing road traffic safety management within aviation airports.
基金Shaanxi Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars,Grant/Award Number:2024JC-JCQN-57Xi’an Science and Technology Plan Project,Grant/Award Number:2023JH-QCYJQ-0086+2 种基金Scientific Research Program Funded by Education Department of Shaanxi Provincial Government,Grant/Award Number:P23JP071Engineering Technology Research Center of Shaanxi Province for Intelligent Testing and Reliability Evaluation of Electronic Equipments,Grant/Award Number:2023-ZC-GCZX-00472022 Shaanxi University Youth Innovation Team Project。
文摘The use of dynamic programming(DP)algorithms to learn Bayesian network structures is limited by their high space complexity and difficulty in learning the structure of large-scale networks.Therefore,this study proposes a DP algorithm based on node block sequence constraints.The proposed algorithm constrains the traversal process of the parent graph by using the M-sequence matrix to considerably reduce the time consumption and space complexity by pruning the traversal process of the order graph using the node block sequence.Experimental results show that compared with existing DP algorithms,the proposed algorithm can obtain learning results more efficiently with less than 1%loss of accuracy,and can be used for learning larger-scale networks.
基金The National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863Program) (No.2003AA1Z2130)the Scienceand Technology Project of Zhejiang Province(No.2005C11001-02)
文摘A novel bandwidth prediction and control scheme is proposed for video transmission over an ad boc network. The scheme is based on cross-layer, feedback, and Bayesian network techniques. The impacts of video quality are formulized and deduced. The relevant factors are obtained by a cross-layer mechanism or Feedback method. According to these relevant factors, the variable set and the Bayesian network topology are determined. Then a Bayesian network prediction model is constructed. The results of the prediction can be used as the bandwidth of the mobile ad hoc network （MANET）. According to the bandwidth, the video encoder is controlled to dynamically adjust and encode the right bit rates of a real-time video stream. Integrated simulation of a video streaming communication system is implemented to validate the proposed solution. In contrast to the conventional transfer scheme, the results of the experiment indicate that the proposed scheme can make the best use of the network bandwidth; there are considerable improvements in the packet loss and the visual quality of real-time video.K
基金supported by the Chinese Universities Scientific Fund(ZYGX2020ZB022)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(51775090).
文摘The dynamic wireless communication network is a complex network that needs to consider various influence factors including communication devices,radio propagation,network topology,and dynamic behaviors.Existing works focus on suggesting simplified reliability analysis methods for these dynamic networks.As one of the most popular modeling methodologies,the dynamic Bayesian network(DBN)is proposed.However,it is insufficient for the wireless communication network which contains temporal and non-temporal events.To this end,we present a modeling methodology for a generalized continuous time Bayesian network(CTBN)with a 2-state conditional probability table(CPT).Moreover,a comprehensive reliability analysis method for communication devices and radio propagation is suggested.The proposed methodology is verified by a reliability analysis of a real wireless communication network.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(61202473)the Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities(JUSRP111A49)+1 种基金"111 Project"(B12018)the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions
文摘For the fault detection and diagnosis problem in largescale industrial systems, there are two important issues： the missing data samples and the non-Gaussian property of the data. However, most of the existing data-driven methods cannot be able to handle both of them. Thus, a new Bayesian network classifier based fault detection and diagnosis method is proposed. At first, a non-imputation method is presented to handle the data incomplete samples, with the property of the proposed Bayesian network classifier, and the missing values can be marginalized in an elegant manner. Furthermore, the Gaussian mixture model is used to approximate the non-Gaussian data with a linear combination of finite Gaussian mixtures, so that the Bayesian network can process the non-Gaussian data in an effective way. Therefore, the entire fault detection and diagnosis method can deal with the high-dimensional incomplete process samples in an efficient and robust way. The diagnosis results are expressed in the manner of probability with the reliability scores. The proposed approach is evaluated with a benchmark problem called the Tennessee Eastman process. The simulation results show the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method in fault detection and diagnosis for large-scale systems with missing measurements.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (60874068)
文摘The command and control（C2） is a decision-making process based on human cognition,which contains operational,physical,and human characteristics,so it takes on uncertainty and complexity.As a decision support approach,Bayesian networks（BNs） provide a framework in which a decision is made by combining the experts＇ knowledge and the specific data.In addition,an expert system represented by human cognitive framework is adopted to express the real-time decision-making process of the decision maker.The combination of the Bayesian decision support and human cognitive framework in the C2 of a specific application field is modeled and executed by colored Petri nets（CPNs）,and the consequences of execution manifest such combination can perfectly present the decision-making process in C2.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(60771063).
文摘To analyze and evaluate the testability design of equipment, a testability analysis method based on Bayesian network inference model is proposed in the paper. The model can adequately apply testability information and many uncertainty information of design and maintenance process, so it can analyze testability by and large from Bayesian inference. The detailed procedure to analyze and evaluate testability for equipments by Bayesian network is given in the paper. Its modeling process is simple, its formulation is visual, and the analysis results are more reliable than others. Examples prove that the analysis method based on Bayesian network inference can be applied to testability analysis and evaluation for complex equipments.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(6130513361573285)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(3102016CG002)
文摘When the training data are insufficient, especially when only a small sample size of data is available, domain knowledge will be taken into the process of learning parameters to improve the performance of the Bayesian networks. In this paper, a new monotonic constraint model is proposed to represent a type of common domain knowledge. And then, the monotonic constraint estimation algorithm is proposed to learn the parameters with the monotonic constraint model. In order to demonstrate the superiority of the proposed algorithm, series of experiments are carried out. The experiment results show that the proposed algorithm is able to obtain more accurate parameters compared to some existing algorithms while the complexity is not the highest.
基金funding support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42177143 and 51809221)the Science Foundation for Distinguished Young Scholars of Sichuan Province,China(Grant No.2020JDJQ0011).
文摘One of the major factors inhibiting the construction of deep underground projects is the risk posed by rockbursts.A study was conducted on the access tunnel of the Shuangjiangkou hydropower station to determine the evolutionary mechanism of microfractures within the surrounding rock mass during rockburst development and develop a rockburst warning model.The study area was chosen through the combination of field studies with an analysis of the spatial and temporal distribution of microseismic(MS)events.The moment tensor inversion method was adopted to study rockburst mechanism,and a dynamic Bayesian network(DBN)was applied to investigating the sensitivity of MS source parameters for rockburst warnings.A MS multivariable rockburst warning model was proposed and validated using two case studies.The results indicate that fractures in the surrounding rock mass during the development of strain-structure rockbursts initially show shear failure and are then followed by tensile failure.The effectiveness of the DBN-based rockburst warning model was demonstrated using self-validation and K-fold cross-validation.Moment magnitude and source radius are the most sensitive factors based on an investigation of the influence on the parent and child nodes in the model,which can serve as important standards for rockburst warnings.The proposed rockburst warning model was found to be effective when applied to two actual projects.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Fundation of China(61573285)the Doctoral Fundation of China(2013ZC53037)
文摘Ordering based search methods have advantages over graph based search methods for structure learning of Bayesian networks in terms on the efficiency. With the aim of further increasing the accuracy of ordering based search methods, we first propose to increase the search space, which can facilitate escaping from the local optima. We present our search operators with majorizations, which are easy to implement. Experiments show that the proposed algorithm can obtain significantly more accurate results. With regard to the problem of the decrease on efficiency due to the increase of the search space, we then propose to add path priors as constraints into the swap process. We analyze the coefficient which may influence the performance of the proposed algorithm, the experiments show that the constraints can enhance the efficiency greatly, while has little effect on the accuracy. The final experiments show that, compared to other competitive methods, the proposed algorithm can find better solutions while holding high efficiency at the same time on both synthetic and real data sets.
基金the National Natural Science Fundation of China (10377014).
文摘The manner and conditions of running the decision-making system with self-defense electronic jamming are given. After proposing the scenario of applying discrete dynamic Bayesian network to the decision making with self-defense electronic jamming, a decision-making model with self-defense electronic jamming based on the discrete dynamic Bayesian network is established. Then jamming decision inferences by the aid of the algorithm of discrete dynamic Bayesian network are carried on. The simulating result shows that this method is able to synthesize different targets which are not predominant. In this way, various features at the same time, as well as the same feature appearing at different time complement mutually; in addition, the accuracy and reliability of electronic jamming decision making are enhanced significantly.
基金This project is funded bythe UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) under Grant Refer-ences:GR/S85504 and GR/S85498
文摘This paper presents a new approach for offshore risk analysis that is capable of dealing with linguistic probabilities in Bayesian networks （ BNs）. In this paper, linguistic probabilities are used to describe occurrence likelihood of hazardous events that may cause possible accidents in offshore operations. In order to use fuzzy information, an f-weighted valuation function is proposed to transform linguistic judgements into crisp probability distributions which can be easily put into a BN to model causal relationships among risk factors. The use of linguistic variables makes it easier for human experts to express their knowledge, and the transformation of linguistic judgements into crisp probabilities can significantly save the cost of computation, modifying and maintaining a BN model. The flexibility of the method allows for multiple forms of information to be used to quantify model relationships, including formally assessed expert opinion when quantitative data are lacking, or when only qualitative or vague statements can be made. The model is a modular representation of uncertain knowledge caused due to randomness, vagueness and ignorance. This makes the risk analysis of offshore engineering systems more functional and easier in many assessment contexts. Specifically, the proposed f-weighted valuation function takes into account not only the dominating values, but also the a-level values that are ignored by conventional valuation methods. A case study of the collision risk between a Floating Production, Storage and Off-loading （FPSO） unit and the anthorised vessels due to human elements during operation is used to illustrate the application of the proposed model.
