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Bass势在反复多次通过鞍点方法中的应用
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作者 刘玲 郭恩龙 +1 位作者 曹泽新 高家琦 《沈阳师范大学学报(自然科学版)》 2025年第2期171-176,共6页
核裂变过程是一个量子多体动力学过程,用反复多次通过鞍点方法计算核裂变速率可以更合理地研究核裂变过程的动力学机制。利用反复多次通过鞍点方法、首次通过鞍点方法和通过断点方法并选取更符合真实势垒形式的Bass80势代替传统理想化... 核裂变过程是一个量子多体动力学过程,用反复多次通过鞍点方法计算核裂变速率可以更合理地研究核裂变过程的动力学机制。利用反复多次通过鞍点方法、首次通过鞍点方法和通过断点方法并选取更符合真实势垒形式的Bass80势代替传统理想化的谐振子势,模拟计算2种势垒对核裂变速率的影响,并对计算结果进行分析、比较。计算结果表明,利用Bass80势计算出的核裂变稳态速率比同势垒高度的谐振子势的核裂变稳态速率低约一个量级,且由于Bass80势的鞍点位置普遍比谐振子势的鞍点位置远,因此达到裂变稳态速率的计算时间长。比如,在相同温度下,^(40)Ca+^(208)Pb Bass势达到稳态的时间约为1200(10^(-21)s)、谐振子势达到稳态的时间约为80(10^(-21)s),前者约是后者的15倍。此外,计算发现,随着Bass80势中入射弹核以及靶核质量的增大,核裂变稳态速率降低。 展开更多
关键词 反复多次通过鞍点方法 核裂变速率 bass Langevin模拟
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Osteosynthesis of the Displaced Fractures of the Distal Radius Treated with New-Clip® Plate: Case Study in the Basse Terre Hospital
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作者 Johnny Cizemba Hugues Albini Christian Dumontier 《Open Journal of Orthopedics》 2025年第2期88-101,共14页
Background and Objectives: The distal radius fracture (DRF) is a major public health problem in northern countries. Its frequency is constantly increasing. The locked anterior plate with its well-established biomechan... Background and Objectives: The distal radius fracture (DRF) is a major public health problem in northern countries. Its frequency is constantly increasing. The locked anterior plate with its well-established biomechanical properties, offers a reliable alternative. The aim of this study was to evaluate the radiological, the functional results and to determine the factors of poor postoperative prognosis of DRF treated with Newclip radial plates®. Methodology: This prospective cohort study evaluates the radiological and functional outcames of displaced radius fractures (DRFs) in patients ≥50 years old treated with Newclip® (locked anterior plates) at the Basse-Terre Hospital in Guadeloupe from 2022 to 2024. The patients were categorized into those with epiphyseal involvement (E1 - E4) and without epiphyseal involvement (E0) based on Laulan’s MEU classification. Radiological parameters (distal radio-ulnar index (DRUI), radial inclination frant view (IRF), radial inclination sagittal view (IRS) were assessed pre and post-operatively. Functional recovery was evaluated at 12 months using the QuickDash questionnaire. Results: Falls were the most common cause of fracture. Post-operatively, SRI was the least restored parameter. Poor prognostic factor for SRI improvement included posterior commimution and unstable fractures. Factors associated with higher QuickDash scores included unstable factures, unrestored DRUI, low plate position, metaphyseal features, and ulnar features. Conclusion: The anterior locking plate osteosynthesis is reliable treatment option with excellent functional outcomes. 展开更多
关键词 Fracture Distal Radius Surgical Treatment Newclip® Plate basse Terre
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Genome-Wide Analysis of Urea Transporter(ut)Gene Family in Spotted Sea Bass(Lateolabrax maculatus):Evolution and Differential Expression After Salinity Adaptation
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作者 YANG Rutao HUANG Zurui +8 位作者 LI Jinku WEN Haishen QI Xin ZHANG Kaiqiang ZHANG Jingru LIU Mengqun LI Jifang ZHANG Meizhao LI Yun 《Journal of Ocean University of China》 2025年第2期427-438,共12页
Urea is a major end product of nitrogen catabolism,serving as an osmolyte to regulate osmotic stress in fish exposed to varying water environments.It has been well known that urea transporters(UTs)facilitate the rapid... Urea is a major end product of nitrogen catabolism,serving as an osmolyte to regulate osmotic stress in fish exposed to varying water environments.It has been well known that urea transporters(UTs)facilitate the rapid movement of urea across cell membranes.However,researches on ut genes were predominantly focused on elasmobranchs and early developmental stages of fish.In this investigation,a total of three ut genes were identified in spotted sea bass.Phylogenetic,homology,and syntenic analyses were conducted to validate the annotation and assess the evolutionary relationships among ut genes.Both ut-a and ut-b genes have retained their evolutionary stability,demonstrating a significant level of homology between them.To gain deeper insights into the evolution of ut genes in spotted sea bass,we performed selective pressure analysis using site,branch,and branch-site models.The results suggested that positive selection likely played a significant role in shaping the evolution of the ut gene family.Furthermore,tissue-specific expression analyses revealed high expression levels of ut genes in osmoregulatory tissues such as the gill and kidney.Additionally,all three ut genes exhibited salinity-related expression patterns in gill and kidney tissues during both seawater-to-freshwater(SF)and freshwater-to-seawater(FS)adaptation.In situ hybridization results demonstrated the localization of both ut-a and ut-c mRNAs on the gill lamellae and adjacent gill filament epithelium.In summary,our study establishes a solid foundation for future research elucidating the evolutionary relationships and functional significance of ut genes during salinity acclimation in spotted sea bass and other teleost species. 展开更多
关键词 spotted sea bass urea transporter salinity transfer gene expression OSMOREGULATION
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Differences of Morphology and Muscle Transcriptomes Reveal the Individual Difference of Swimming Performance in Juvenile Spotted Sea Bass(Lateolabrax maculatus)
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作者 LI Haoyang LI Hao +7 位作者 LI Chengtian JIN Xi LI Weiwei WEN Haishen LI Yun LAI Qianyan NIU Chunxiang QI Xin 《Journal of Ocean University of China》 2025年第3期707-720,共14页
Deep-sea aquaculture is an emerging trend due to the contamination and overexploitation of nearshore mariculture areas.However,the complex water conditions in the deep sea impose higher demands on the swimming perform... Deep-sea aquaculture is an emerging trend due to the contamination and overexploitation of nearshore mariculture areas.However,the complex water conditions in the deep sea impose higher demands on the swimming performance of farmed animals.Spotted sea bass(Lateolabrax maculatus)is one of the most economically important fish species in China.To investigate the mechanisms underlying the individual variations in swimming performance among spotted sea bass,we measured their critical swimming speed(U_(crit))and morphological phenotypes.Total length,body length,body weight,caudal region length,and condition factor showed significant positive correlations with absolute Ucrit.In contrast,caudal fin length and pectoral fin length tended to hinder the swimming performance of individual spotted sea bass.Additionally,white muscle tissues from fish exhibiting good swimming performance(relative U_(crit)>8.20 BL/s)and poor swimming performance(relative U_(crit)<7.31 BL/s)were sampled for RNA-seq.A total of 694 differential expression genes(DEGs)were identified through gene expression analysis,with significant enrichment in GO terms such as mitochondrial protein complex,ribosomal subunit,structural constituent of ribosome,and oxidative phosphorylation,as well as genes in KEGG pathways including ribosome and metabolic pathways.In conclusion,our study for the first time comprehensively elucidated the impact of morphology of spotted sea bass on its individual differences in swimming ability,and analyzed the genetic basis underlying swimming ability using transcriptomic methods.This study provides a theoretical basis for the potential breeding varieties of spotted sea bass suitable for deep-sea aquaculture. 展开更多
关键词 spotted sea bass critical swimming speed MORPHOLOGY RNA-seq
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Optimal Evaluation of Photovoltaic Consumption Schemes in Distribution Networks Based on BASSModel for Photovoltaic Installed Capacity Prediction
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作者 Chenyang Fu Xinghua Wang +3 位作者 Zilv Li Xixian Liu Xiongfei Zhang Zhuoli Zhao 《Energy Engineering》 2025年第5期1805-1821,共17页
With the large-scale promotion of distributed photovoltaics,new challenges have emerged in the photovoltaic consumptionwithin distribution networks.Traditional photovoltaic consumption schemes have primarily focused o... With the large-scale promotion of distributed photovoltaics,new challenges have emerged in the photovoltaic consumptionwithin distribution networks.Traditional photovoltaic consumption schemes have primarily focused on static analysis.However,as the scale of photovoltaic power generation devices grows and the methods of integration diversify,a single consumption scheme is no longer sufficient to meet the actual needs of current distribution networks.Therefore,this paper proposes an optimal evaluation method for photovoltaic consumption schemes based on BASS model predictions of installed capacity,aiming to provide an effective tool for generating and evaluating photovoltaic consumption schemes in distribution networks.First,the BASS diffusion model,combined with existing photovoltaic capacity data and roof area information,is used to predict the trends in photovoltaic installed capacity for each substation area,providing a scientific basis for consumption evaluation.Secondly,an improved random scenario simulation method is proposed for assessing the photovoltaic consumption capacity in distribution networks.This method generates photovoltaic integration schemes based on the diffusion probabilities of different regions and evaluates the consumption capacity of each scheme.Finally,the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution(TOPSIS)is used to comprehensively evaluate the generated schemes,ensuring that the selected scheme not only meets the consumption requirements but also offers high economic benefits and reliability.The effectiveness and feasibility of the proposedmethod are validated through simulations of the IEEE 33-node system,providing strong support for optimizing photovoltaic consumption schemes in distribution networks. 展开更多
关键词 bass model photovoltaic installation forecast diffusion probability photovoltaic consumption multi objective evaluation
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智能换炉补风(BASS)系统在炼铁厂的实践应用
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作者 陆洪俊 刘洪坤 +2 位作者 王强 石义伟 王沛勇 《昆钢科技》 2025年第2期15-18,共4页
为保证持续的高风温,热风炉需要在燃烧和供风之间连续切换,但传统的热风炉换炉工艺容易造成高炉送风压力、流量出现波动,导致高炉生产不顺。通过优化送风制度以及升级控制系统软件等措施,在高炉入炉原燃料结构不变的基础上,实现了提高... 为保证持续的高风温,热风炉需要在燃烧和供风之间连续切换,但传统的热风炉换炉工艺容易造成高炉送风压力、流量出现波动,导致高炉生产不顺。通过优化送风制度以及升级控制系统软件等措施,在高炉入炉原燃料结构不变的基础上,实现了提高风温、富氧率、喷煤量及降低热风炉换炉波动的目的。结果表明:通过智能换炉补风(BASS)系统的应用,有效实现高炉热风炉自动换炉补风功能,达到安全高效为高炉提供平稳风量的效果,实施后可增加补风量60000 m^(3)/天,实现高炉降本增效目标。 展开更多
关键词 智能换炉补风 (bass)系统 高炉风压波动 热风炉换炉
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基于Bass模型的新能源汽车销量及碳减排量预测 被引量:2
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作者 王湘玉 李可强 +2 位作者 高丽辉 杨雅婷 王鹏飞 《河北科技师范学院学报(社会科学版)》 2024年第2期103-108,共6页
基于Bass扩散模型,预测我国2023-2030年新能源汽车销量,考虑纯电动汽车和混合动力汽车的碳减排效果差异,计算纯电动汽车和混合动力汽车的平均市场份额,从而测算我国2023-2030年新能源汽车全生命周期碳减排量。结果表明,在考虑能源结构... 基于Bass扩散模型,预测我国2023-2030年新能源汽车销量,考虑纯电动汽车和混合动力汽车的碳减排效果差异,计算纯电动汽车和混合动力汽车的平均市场份额,从而测算我国2023-2030年新能源汽车全生命周期碳减排量。结果表明,在考虑能源结构等因素变化的情景下,相较于传统汽油乘用车,推广使用新能源汽车,到2030年碳减排量预计可达4.31亿t,预计减排34.73%。 展开更多
关键词 新能源汽车 bass模型 销量预测 碳减排量
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Dietary sodium acetate and sodium butyrate improve high-carbohydrate diet utilization by regulating gut microbiota, liver lipid metabolism, oxidative stress, and inflammation in largemouth bass(Micropterus salmoides) 被引量:3
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作者 Qiao Liu Liangshun Cheng +9 位作者 Maozhu Wang Lianfeng Shen Chengxian Zhang Jin Mu Yifan Hu Yihui Yang Kuo He Haoxiao Yan Liulan Zhao Song Yang 《Journal of Animal Science and Biotechnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第4期1704-1722,共19页
Background Adequate level of carbohydrates in aquafeeds help to conserve protein and reduce cost. However, studies have indicated that high-carbohydrate(HC) diet disrupt the homeostasis of the gut–liver axis in large... Background Adequate level of carbohydrates in aquafeeds help to conserve protein and reduce cost. However, studies have indicated that high-carbohydrate(HC) diet disrupt the homeostasis of the gut–liver axis in largemouth bass, resulting in decreased intestinal acetate and butyrate level.Method Herein, we had concepted a set of feeding experiment to assess the effects of dietary sodium acetate(SA) and sodium butyrate(SB) on liver health and the intestinal microbiota in largemouth bass fed an HC diet. The experimental design comprised 5 isonitrogenous and isolipidic diets, including LC(9% starch), HC(18% starch), HCSA(18% starch;2 g/kg SA), HCSB(18% starch;2 g/kg SB), and HCSASB(18% starch;1 g/kg SA + 1 g/kg SB). Juvenile largemouth bass with an initial body weight of 7.00 ± 0.20 g were fed on these diets for 56 d.Results We found that dietary SA and SB reduced hepatic triglyceride accumulation by activating autophagy(ATG101, LC3B and TFEB), promoting lipolysis(CPT1α, HSL and AMPKα), and inhibiting adipogenesis(FAS, ACCA, SCD1 and PPARγ). In addition, SA and SB decreased oxidative stress in the liver(CAT, GPX1α and SOD1) by activating the Keap1-Nrf2 pathway. Meanwhile, SA and SB alleviated HC-induced inflammation by downregulating the expression of pro-inflammatory factors(IL-1β, COX2 and Hepcidin1) through the NF-κB pathway. Importantly, SA and SB increased the abundance of bacteria that produced acetic acid and butyrate(Clostridium_sensu_stricto_1). Combined with the KEGG analysis, the results showed that SA and SB enriched carbohydrate metabolism and amino acid metabolism pathways, thereby improving the utilization of carbohydrates. Pearson correlation analysis indicated that growth performance was closely related to hepatic lipid deposition, autophagy, antioxidant capacity, inflammation, and intestinal microbial composition.Conclusions In conclusion, dietary SA and SB can reduce hepatic lipid deposition;and alleviate oxidative stress and inflammation in largemouth bass fed on HC diet. These beneficial effects may be due to the altered composition of the gut microbiota caused by SA and SB. The improvement effects of SB were stronger than those associated with SA. 展开更多
关键词 High carbohydrate diet Intestinal microbiota Largemouth bass Lipid deposition Sodium acetate Sodium butyrate
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Effects of Poria cocos polysaccharide on growth performance,physiological parameters,and lipid metabolism of spotted sea bass Lateolabrax maculatus 被引量:1
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作者 Jing LU Zhangfan HUANG +2 位作者 Youling YE Anle XU Zhongbao LI 《Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第1期316-331,共16页
The aquaculture industry has developed significantly over the past few decades and has had a substantial impact on the global food supply and marine fisheries resources.However,some problems arise behind the scenes du... The aquaculture industry has developed significantly over the past few decades and has had a substantial impact on the global food supply and marine fisheries resources.However,some problems arise behind the scenes due to excessive intensive farming,such as slow animal growth,frequent disease,and lipid metabolism disorders.These problems have limited the sustainable development of the aquaculture industry,and a continuable solution is required.The use of fungal polysaccharide appears to provide a solution to these problems.Therefore,different supplemented levels of Poria cocos polysaccharide(PCP)(0,0.4,0.8,1.2,1.6,and 2.0 g/kg,respectively)were fed to spotted sea bass(Lateolabrax maculatus)in similar size(30.28±0.18 g)in current study.The effects of PCP on growth,physiological parameters,and lipid metabolism of spotted sea bass were investigated after a 4-week rearing period.Results showed,fish with PCP intake presented a significantly higher weight gain,specific growth rate,and a significantly lower feed conversion ratio.Significantly higher trypsin activity in liver and intestine were observed in fish with PCP intake.The superoxide dismutase activity in serum and liver of fish with PCP intake were significantly improved,while significantly higher serum total antioxidant capacity and hepatic catalase activity were also observed.However,no significant differences in lysozyme and alkaline phosphatase activity were evident among groups.Fish with PCP intake showed a significantly lower total cholesterol,but no noteworthy change in triglyceride and lipid-metabolismrelated genes expression were observed among groups.Results indicated that intake of PCP has a positive effect on growth and antioxidant capacity of spotted sea bass,but seems to have a limited effect on the non-specific immunity and lipid metabolism of spotted sea bass.Based on the regression analysis results,1.4 g/kg of PCP is the optimal dose for spotted sea bass in size(30.28±0.18 g). 展开更多
关键词 spotted sea bass Poria cocos POLYSACCHARIDE GROWTH lipid metabolism
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Differential expression of miRNAs and mRNAs in the livers of largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides under heat stress 被引量:1
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作者 Xuqian ZHAO Zijie LIN +4 位作者 Caijuan LI Hao ZHU Lingling LI Wenjia MAO Qufei LING 《Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2024年第2期594-608,共15页
Global warming threatens freshwater ecosystems and compromises fish survival.To elucidate the role of miRNAs in the livers of heat stressed largemouth bass,juvenile fish was subject to heat stress under 37°C.Both... Global warming threatens freshwater ecosystems and compromises fish survival.To elucidate the role of miRNAs in the livers of heat stressed largemouth bass,juvenile fish was subject to heat stress under 37°C.Both mRNA-seq and miRNA-seq were conducted on the liver tissues under control and heat stress conditions.Differential gene expression analysis and enrichment analysis were performed on mRNA and miRNA expression profiles.A total of 406 differentially expressed genes(DEGs)were discovered,of which 212 were up-regulated and 194 were down-regulated.Most of the DEGs were significantly implicated in the regulation of“protein processing in endoplasmic reticulum”,“proteasome”,“steroid biosynthesis”,and“ornithine decarboxylase inhibitor activity”pathways.In addition,47 differentially expressed miRNAs(DEMs)were identified in largemouth bass livers under heat stress,including 21 up-regulated and 25 down-regulated miRNAs.A negatively regulated miRNA-mRNA network including 12 miRNAs and 19 mRNAs was constructed with DEMs involved in“protein degradation”,“calcium ion regulation”,“cell apoptosis”,and“lipid metabolism”.Moreover,this study indicated novel-miR-144 activated the IRE1 signaling pathway by targeting txndc5 to induce liver apoptosis in largemouth bass under heat stress.This study revealed the involvement of miRNA regulation in largemouth bass in response to heat stress. 展开更多
关键词 heat stress largemouth bass miRNA-mRNA interaction
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基于DEVA-BASS模型的互联网企业价值评估——以叮咚买菜为例 被引量:1
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作者 李启元 吴孝灵 《江苏商论》 2024年第12期34-39,共6页
本文针对互联网企业的潜在用户价值特征,研究互联网企业估值问题。首先,基于互联网企业的网络用户效应,通过将企业的市场竞争力引入BASS模型来刻画市场潜在活跃用户量随网络用户量变化的规律,给出对市场潜在活跃用户量预测的BASS模型改... 本文针对互联网企业的潜在用户价值特征,研究互联网企业估值问题。首先,基于互联网企业的网络用户效应,通过将企业的市场竞争力引入BASS模型来刻画市场潜在活跃用户量随网络用户量变化的规律,给出对市场潜在活跃用户量预测的BASS模型改进。然后,在此基础上,通过DEVA模型拓展给出潜在活跃用户价值的DEVA模型表示,构建互联网企业价值评估的DEVA-BASS模型。最后,将DEVA-BASS模型应用于叮咚买菜的企业价值评估案例,说明互联网企业价值评估绝不能仅仅局限于对现有用户价值的评估,更需要根据对用户的市场竞争力情况评估市场潜在用户价值。 展开更多
关键词 互联网企业 潜在用户价值 bass模型改进 DEVA模型拓展
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Bass环与分次Bass环 被引量:3
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作者 李长安 陈清华 《福建师范大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS CSCD 2001年第1期4-9,共6页
引进并刻划了分次 Bass环 ,讨论了分次环 R及由它导出的非分次环 R,Re,R# G之间的 Bass环性质的关系 ,得到在有限群 G-型强分次环 ( |G|是 R的逆元 ,e是 G的单位元 )的条件下 ,R,Re,R# G与分次环 R在
关键词 bass 分次bass SMASH积 优扩张 分次模 分次极大子模 分次内射
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基于Bass模型的我国电动汽车保有量预测 被引量:33
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作者 曾鸣 曾繁孝 +1 位作者 朱晓丽 薛松 《中国电力》 CSCD 北大核心 2013年第1期36-39,共4页
准确预测我国未来10年电动汽车的保有量对于调整既定产业政策、实现电动汽车的有序发展、合理引导电动汽车上下游产业布局具有重要意义。Bass模型预测新产品扩散时具有能够全面考虑内外部因素的优势。在综合分析未来10年我国电动汽车的... 准确预测我国未来10年电动汽车的保有量对于调整既定产业政策、实现电动汽车的有序发展、合理引导电动汽车上下游产业布局具有重要意义。Bass模型预测新产品扩散时具有能够全面考虑内外部因素的优势。在综合分析未来10年我国电动汽车的发展规划后,利用Bass模型对我国2020年基准油价和高油价情况下的电动汽车保有量进行了预测。预测结果表明,我国电动汽车在未来10年会有较快的发展速度,汽油价格的上涨会促进电动汽车的推广。 展开更多
关键词 bass模型 电动汽车 网络外部性 保有量预测
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基于改进BASS模型的短生命周期产品需求预测模型 被引量:19
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作者 谢建中 杨育 +1 位作者 陈倩 李斐 《计算机集成制造系统》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2015年第1期48-56,共9页
针对短生命周期产品需求预测中历史数据缺乏、需求影响因素考虑不充分导致的预测精度较低等问题,提出一种改进的BASS模型,用于短生命周期产品需求预测。提出基于特征重要性的产品相似度度量方法,应用模糊聚类—粗糙集实现了产品相似特... 针对短生命周期产品需求预测中历史数据缺乏、需求影响因素考虑不充分导致的预测精度较低等问题,提出一种改进的BASS模型,用于短生命周期产品需求预测。提出基于特征重要性的产品相似度度量方法,应用模糊聚类—粗糙集实现了产品相似特征权重分配;利用系统相似度量方法度量了产品相似性,为相似产品历史销售数据的获取及整理、相似产品权重的确定提供了依据。综合考虑消费者偏好和季节对需求预测的影响,对BASS模型进行改进,提出一种应用于短生命周期产品需求预测的改进BASS模型。以某手机需求预测实例验证了该方法的科学性和有效性。 展开更多
关键词 短生命周期产品 产品相似度 bass模型 需求预测
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基于BASS模型的危机信息扩散模式 被引量:23
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作者 魏玖长 周磊 赵定涛 《系统工程》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2011年第9期16-22,20-22,共7页
有效的危机信息传播在危机管理中至关重要。为了研究危机信息在不同传播方式下的扩散特征,本文基于BA SS模型,构建了公共危机事件后正确信息与谣言信息的扩散模型,并通过M atlab软件模拟了不同参数条件下两类信息的扩散规律及扩散状态... 有效的危机信息传播在危机管理中至关重要。为了研究危机信息在不同传播方式下的扩散特征,本文基于BA SS模型,构建了公共危机事件后正确信息与谣言信息的扩散模型,并通过M atlab软件模拟了不同参数条件下两类信息的扩散规律及扩散状态差异。分析结果表明,两类信息扩散曲线的增长幅度受到渠道系数的影响,最终的扩散规模与非正式渠道信息准确度存在正相关的关系。要提高危机信息传播的有效性,危机管理部门可以从扩大正式渠道的覆盖范围、提高信息发布的准确性与权威性、加强公众的应急素质教育以及转变谣言管理态度等方面入手。 展开更多
关键词 管理工程 危机信息扩散模型 系统仿真 bass模型
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基于Bass修正模型的产业集群技术创新扩散研究 被引量:24
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作者 陈国宏 王丽丽 蔡猷花 《中国管理科学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2010年第5期179-183,共5页
产业集群技术创新扩散具有不同于一般技术创新扩散的多个特征,无法采用现有分析方法进行研究。本文在对技术创新扩散过程Bass模型研究的基础上,指出运用Bass模型研究产业集群技术创新扩散存在的不足,据此拓展、建立了产业集群技术创新扩... 产业集群技术创新扩散具有不同于一般技术创新扩散的多个特征,无法采用现有分析方法进行研究。本文在对技术创新扩散过程Bass模型研究的基础上,指出运用Bass模型研究产业集群技术创新扩散存在的不足,据此拓展、建立了产业集群技术创新扩散Bass修正模型,并进行了仿真、分析、比较。结果表明,本文提出的Bass修正模型更合理、有效,结论更符合实际情况,可为研究产业集群技术创新扩散问题提供理论与方法支持。 展开更多
关键词 产业集群 技术创新扩散 bass修正模型 系统动力学
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基于创新扩散理论的中国电动汽车广义Bass模型 被引量:20
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作者 任斌 邵鲁宁 尤建新 《软科学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2013年第4期17-22,共6页
根据创新扩散理论,通过对广义Bass模型的扩展,提出了考虑基础设施建设和价格下降影响的中国电动汽车的创新扩散模型。利用混合动力汽车在美国扩散的时间序列数据,采用遗传算法对模型参数进行了估计。通过该模型,预测了在自由、基本和理... 根据创新扩散理论,通过对广义Bass模型的扩展,提出了考虑基础设施建设和价格下降影响的中国电动汽车的创新扩散模型。利用混合动力汽车在美国扩散的时间序列数据,采用遗传算法对模型参数进行了估计。通过该模型,预测了在自由、基本和理想三种市场效能情景下2012~2020年电动汽车在中国的销量情况。结果表明,对电动汽车的创新采用者来说,基础设施建设的完善程度比价格更能影响他们的购买决策,在理想情景下,电动汽车的年销量在2019年达到最高点,2020年累计销量达到635万辆。 展开更多
关键词 电动汽车 创新扩散 广义bass模型 遗传算法 销量预测
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面向文化资产证券化定价的G-Bass随机扩散预测模型研究 被引量:10
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作者 曹宏铎 李旲 张晓云 《管理工程学报》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2017年第1期192-200,共9页
面向文化资产证券化定价问题,构造嵌入Gamma过程的Bass随机扩散模型(G-Bass模型),以预测文化产品的市场接受度,进而解决由于文化资产未来收益的强烈不确定性而引起的资产定价困难。论文首先给出了G-Bass随机扩散模型形式;然后,根据模型... 面向文化资产证券化定价问题,构造嵌入Gamma过程的Bass随机扩散模型(G-Bass模型),以预测文化产品的市场接受度,进而解决由于文化资产未来收益的强烈不确定性而引起的资产定价困难。论文首先给出了G-Bass随机扩散模型形式;然后,根据模型给出的资产收益的价格形式,利用新增资产收益信息,使用贝叶斯参数推断方法,对模型的参数进行更新;借助马尔科夫蒙特卡罗(MCMC)方法解决积分过程中的多重积分问题,最终可以实现资产的动态定价。本文采用中国大陆电影票房数据对该方法进行了实证效果分析,结果显示该方法具有较好的预测效果,具有可行性和适用性。本文为文化创意资产的定价提供一种新思路。 展开更多
关键词 bass模型 Gamma过程 资产定价 资产证券化 文化创意资产
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基于BASS模型的突发事件谣言信息扩散研究 被引量:10
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作者 宋之杰 乔芬 石蕊 《情报杂志》 CSSCI 北大核心 2016年第1期100-104,共5页
[目的/意义]突发事件的发生往往伴随着各类谣言信息的扩散,谣言的传播会对事态的发展产生重大影响,为了研究谣言扩散的规律,更好的预测群体性突发事件的发展局势,以便采取有效措施来降低突发事件对社会的不良影响。[方法/过程]通过对谣... [目的/意义]突发事件的发生往往伴随着各类谣言信息的扩散,谣言的传播会对事态的发展产生重大影响,为了研究谣言扩散的规律,更好的预测群体性突发事件的发展局势,以便采取有效措施来降低突发事件对社会的不良影响。[方法/过程]通过对谣言扩散规律的研究,在研究过程中根据群体性突发事件的特点,对基本的BASS模型进行改进,引入核心区域概念,同时对改进的谣言扩散模型进行M ATLAB仿真,分析各个影响因子对区域谣言扩散的影响。[结果/结论]研究结果表明该谣言扩散模型能够有效的反应谣言信息的扩散规律,根据谣言扩散规律得出切实可行的处理建议,为谣言扩散的控制提供了理论依据。 展开更多
关键词 突发事件 谣言扩散 bass模型 MATLAB仿真
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激励政策对新能源汽车推广的影响研究——基于修正Bass模型的实证分析 被引量:18
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作者 龙子泉 常静敏 陈植元 《科技管理研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2016年第4期138-144,共7页
为了更好地发挥新能源汽车政策的指导作用,需要对政策影响深入研究。从私人消费者决策角度出发,基于Bass模型系统引入政策因素后可得到较高预测精度的修正模型,用于分析我国政策对插电式混合动力汽车推广的影响。研究发现,潜在采用者对... 为了更好地发挥新能源汽车政策的指导作用,需要对政策影响深入研究。从私人消费者决策角度出发,基于Bass模型系统引入政策因素后可得到较高预测精度的修正模型,用于分析我国政策对插电式混合动力汽车推广的影响。研究发现,潜在采用者对其与传统汽车成本权衡较在乎,单位公共充电站可以影响约211人;我国现行政策使2013—2030年累计推广量增加5倍多;且对不同油价环境适应性良好。相关研究方法可为以后政策制定提供量化决策依据。 展开更多
关键词 新能源汽车 激励政策 修正bass模型 混合动力汽车(HEV) 插电式混合动力汽车(PHEV)
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