This study investigates the rate of sea level rise along the Estonian coastline of the Baltic Sea over the three decades(1993-2022)using tide gauge data and advanced analytical methods.Tide gauge data were analyzed us...This study investigates the rate of sea level rise along the Estonian coastline of the Baltic Sea over the three decades(1993-2022)using tide gauge data and advanced analytical methods.Tide gauge data were analyzed using an open-source software based on the"TG Analysis"method developed by Kristian Breili.The results reveal significant spatial and temporal variability:the average relative sea level rise was 1.35±1.91 mm/yr over the three decades,with a notable acceleration to 9.01±8.67 mm/yr in the last decade(2013-2022).Absolute sea level rise,after correction for land uplift(NKG2016LU),averaged4.16±1.81 mm/yr.Regional differences were observed,with faster relative sea level rise in areas of slower land uplift(e.g.,P??rnu,Virtsu)and vice versa.The data and trends were further analyzed by applying advanced analytical methods(differentiation,spectral and segmented regression analysis,and sea level model validation).By differentiating the sea level rise trends along the Estonian coast,and comparing tide gauge data with data from Stockholm and Hanko,the results show a minimal velocity difference(0.65 mm/yr),confirming the reliability of the trends.Spectral analysis and segmented regression analysis identified breakpoints mainly in the early 1990s,with the transition to automated tide gauges in 2010 having no significant impact.Validation of the ESA BalticSEAL model showed good performance in western Estonia,while larger discrepancies were observed in the northern regions,which are linked to local geophysical factor.展开更多
Accurate wind modeling is important for wind resources assessment and wind power forecasting. To improve the WRF model configuration for the offshore wind modeling over the Baltic Sea, this study performed a sensitivi...Accurate wind modeling is important for wind resources assessment and wind power forecasting. To improve the WRF model configuration for the offshore wind modeling over the Baltic Sea, this study performed a sensitivity study of the WRF model to multiple model configurations, including domain setup,grid resolution, sea surface temperature, land surface data, and atmosphere-wave coupling. The simulated offshore wind was evaluated against LiDAR observations under different wind directions, atmospheric stabilities, and sea status. Generally, the simulated wind profiles matched observations, despite systematic underestimations. Strengthening the forcing from the reanalysis data through reducing the number of nested domains played the largest role in improving wind modeling. Atmosphere-wave coupling further improved the simulated wind, especially under the growing and mature sea conditions.Increasing the vertical resolution, and updating the sea surface temperature and the land surface information only had a slight impact, mainly visible during very stable conditions. Increasing the horizontal resolution also only had a slight impact, most visible during unstable conditions. Our study can help to improve the wind resources assessment and wind power forecasting over the Baltic Sea.展开更多
The aim of this study was to characterize mercury （Hg） contamination in the coastal waters of the Southern Baltic Sea, and to investigate transformations of Hg in the initial links of the marine food chain. Concentr...The aim of this study was to characterize mercury （Hg） contamination in the coastal waters of the Southern Baltic Sea, and to investigate transformations of Hg in the initial links of the marine food chain. Concentrations of Hg in water, particulate matter, plankton and macrophytes at various stations in the coastal zone （a bay with restricted water exchange, near an industrial city, river mouths, and the open sea） were measured in 2006–2008. Hg concentrations observed in the Southern Baltic varied greatly, showing the highest average values in all environmental compartments near the river mouths. In shallow, sheltered parts of the gulf, where water exchange is restricted, Hg concentrations in the water and in macrophytes were elevated relative to those in the coastal zone of the deeper part of the bay and in the open Baltic. Distance to the river mouth, terrestrial runoff, and quantity and quality of organic matter were more important than seasonal variations in controlling Hg and HgSPM concentrations in water samples. Mercury concentrations in the surface microlayer at the air/sea interface were over 10 times higher than those in the bulk surface water. Concentrations of Hg in macrophytes in the winter were significantly higher than those in the warm seasons （spring, summer, autumn）. This was probably the combined effect of higher availability of Hg in porewaters and leaf growth inhibition.展开更多
Mean sea level rise and climatological wind speed changes occur as part of the ongoing climate change and future projections of both variables are still highly uncertain. Here the Baltic Sea’s response in extreme sea...Mean sea level rise and climatological wind speed changes occur as part of the ongoing climate change and future projections of both variables are still highly uncertain. Here the Baltic Sea’s response in extreme sea levels to perturbations in mean sea level and wind speeds is investigated in a series of simulations with a newly developed storm surge model based on the nucleus for European modeling of the ocean(NEMO)-Nordic. A simple linear model with only two tunable parameters is found to capture the changes in the return levels extremely well. The response to mean sea level rise is linear and nearly spatially uniform, meaning that a mean sea level rise of 1 m increases the return levels by a equal amount everywhere. The response to wind speed perturbations is more complicated and return levels are found to increase more where they are already high. This behaviour is alarming as it suggests that already flooding prone regions like the Gulf of Finland will be disproportionally adversely affected in a future windier climate.展开更多
The Baltic Sea is a brackish, mediterranean sea located in the middle latitudes of Europe. It is seasonally covered with ice. The ice covered areas during a typical winter are the Bothnian Bay, the Gulf of Finnland an...The Baltic Sea is a brackish, mediterranean sea located in the middle latitudes of Europe. It is seasonally covered with ice. The ice covered areas during a typical winter are the Bothnian Bay, the Gulf of Finnland and the Gulf of Riga. Sea ice plays an important role in dynamic and thermodynamic processes and also has a strong impact on the heat budget of the sea. Also a large part of transport goes by sea, and there is a need to create ice charts to make the marine transport safe. Because of high cloudiness in winter season and small amount of light in the northern part of the Baltic Sea, radar data are the most important remote sensing source of sea ice information. The main goal of the following studies is classification of the Baltic sea ice cover using radar data. The ENVISAT ASAR （Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar） acquires data in five different modes. In the following studies ASAR Wide Swath Mode data were used. The Wide Swath Mode, using the ScanSAR technique provides medium resolution images （150 m） over a swath of 405 kin, at HH or VV polarization. In following work data from February 13th, February 24th and April 6th, 2011, representing three different sea ice situations were chosen. OBIA （object-based image analysis） methods and texture parameters were used to create sea ice extent and sea ice concentration charts. Based on object-based methods, it can separate single sea ice floes within the ice pack and calculate more accurately sea ice concentration.展开更多
This research aims to optimize the utilization of long-term sea level data from the TOPEX/Poseidon,Jason1,Jason2,and Jason3 altimetry missions for tidal modeling.We generate a time series of along-track observations a...This research aims to optimize the utilization of long-term sea level data from the TOPEX/Poseidon,Jason1,Jason2,and Jason3 altimetry missions for tidal modeling.We generate a time series of along-track observations and apply a developed method to produce tidal models with specific tidal constituents for each location.Our tidal modeling methodology follows an iterative process:partitioning sea surface height(SSH)observations into analysis/training and prediction/validation parts and ultimately identi-fying the set of tidal constituents that provide the best predictions at each time series location.The study focuses on developing 1256 time series along the altimetry tracks over the Baltic Sea,each with its own set of tidal constituents.Verification of the developed tidal models against the sSH observations within the prediction/validation part reveals mean absolute error(MAE)values ranging from 0.0334 m to 0.1349 m,with an average MAE of 0.089 m.The same validation process is conducted on the FES2014 and EOT20 global tidal models,demonstrating that our tidal model,referred to as BT23(short for Baltic Tide 2023),outperforms both models with an average MAE improvement of 0.0417 m and 0.0346 m,respectively.In addition to providing details on the development of the time series and the tidal modeling procedure,we offer the 1256 along-track time series and their associated tidal models as supplementary materials.We encourage the satellite altimetry community to utilize these resources for further research and applications.展开更多
During years 1980/1981-2012/2013, inter-annual variations in sea ice and snow thickness in Kemi, in the northern coast of the Gulf of Bothnia, Baltic Sea, depended on the air temperature, snow fall, and rain. Inter-an...During years 1980/1981-2012/2013, inter-annual variations in sea ice and snow thickness in Kemi, in the northern coast of the Gulf of Bothnia, Baltic Sea, depended on the air temperature, snow fall, and rain. Inter-annual variations in the November--April mean air temperature, accumulated total precipitation, snow fall, and rain, as well as ice and snow thickness in Kemi and ice concentration in the Gulf of Bothnia correlated with inter-annual variations of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）, Arctic Oscillation （AO）, North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO）, Scandinavian Pattern （SCA）, and Polar / Eurasian Pattern （PEU）. The strong role of PDO is a new finding. In general, the relationships with PDO were approximately equally strong as those with AO, but rain and sea ice concentration were better correlated with PDO. The correlations with PDO were, however, not persistent; for a study period since 1950 the correlations were much lower. During 1980/1981--2012/2013, also the Pacific / North American Pattern （PNA） and E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） had statistical connections with the conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, revealed by analyzing their effects combined with those of PDO and AO. A reduced autumn sea ice area in the Arctic was related to increased rain and total precipitation in the following winter in Kemi. This correlation was significant for the Pan-Arctic sea ice area in September, October, and November, and for the November sea ice area in the Barents / Kara seas.展开更多
Economic activity always has an impact on the environment, but the potential degree of this impact depends on consumption and production pattems. The aim of this paper is to analyse the environmental and well being im...Economic activity always has an impact on the environment, but the potential degree of this impact depends on consumption and production pattems. The aim of this paper is to analyse the environmental and well being impacts of consumption and production systems in Baltic Sea Region and draw conclusions about transferring of best practises in Latvia. This study is based on indicator analyses, focusing on data of environmental impacts from consumption and production in the region, and analyses drivers behind these impacts. The paper concludes two trends--Scandinavian countries and Germany which have more advanced economies demonstrate much higher ecoefficiency and environmental management practices compared to the new EU member states. The example of the Baltic Sea region shows that high income levels and a stable development path in the old EU member states provide grounds for technology advancement to reduce the environmental impact of production. However Baltic States and Poland on average demonstrate much more sustainable consumption patterns. But the trends in these countries are negative--they try to copy lifestyles and consumption patterns of more advanced economies with higher ecological footprint. Challenge for Latvia is to improve its ecoefficiency but at the same time develop more sustainable consumption patterns.展开更多
This paper presents underwater relict forest fossil and ancient coast formation exploration results in the eastern Baltic Sea. Tree fossils and sediment layers discovered in the sea-bed were dated with 14^C along with...This paper presents underwater relict forest fossil and ancient coast formation exploration results in the eastern Baltic Sea. Tree fossils and sediment layers discovered in the sea-bed were dated with 14^C along with palynological and dendrological analysis. Based on the obtained data, a fragment of submerged early Holocene landscape, coastline of the Yoldia Sea and Ancylus Lake has been reconstructed. The research data determine that vegetation and natural conditions of the Yoldia Sea coastal were favourable for Early Mesolithic communities. Well-preserved relict pine forest dates are also crucial to Baltic Sea water level dynamics analysis during the period： end of Yoldia Sea-Ancylus Lake.展开更多
This paper presents research outcomes from an investigation into climate change and urban impacts on climate development in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast. The cities considered were Rostock and Stockholm, and ...This paper presents research outcomes from an investigation into climate change and urban impacts on climate development in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast. The cities considered were Rostock and Stockholm, and their surrounding regions. The objectives were: 1) to determine whether significant changes in temperature and precipitation have occurred and, if so, to what extent;and 2) to establish whether there is a noticeable urban heat island effect in Stockholm and the medium-sized city of Rostock. Climatic trends were detected by linear regression and the Mann- Kendall test. Different precipitation trends were detected over the whole period of observation. Average annual temperatures increased significantly in both case studies, particularly from the 1970s with highest trends in winter and lowest in autumn (Rostock) and summer (Stockholm). Although changes in temperature extremes were detected for both regions, no overall long-term trend for precipitation extremes was observed. The average temperature in the city of Rostock (Stockholm) was approximately 0.3°C to 0.6°C (1.2°C) higher than in the surrounding rural areas had seasonal variations, with maxima in the warm season. The main outcomes were that significant changes in climatic conditions, particularly temperature patterns, have been occurring in the case study regions since the 1980s, and that there is a considerable urban heat island effect in both Stockholm and Rostock. This could encourage urban planners to consider specific climatic conditions and small-scale climatic influences also in relatively small coastal urban conglomerates in mid latitudes which can follow from land use changes.展开更多
Geoscientists play an increasingly important role in understanding climate change and its impacts.This is especially the case with adaptation to climate change which cannot be solved in isolated attempts,but calls for...Geoscientists play an increasingly important role in understanding climate change and its impacts.This is especially the case with adaptation to climate change which cannot be solved in isolated attempts,but calls for international cooperation and integrated approaches.The potential effects of climate change on natural hazards,as well as water and energy resources,are of great concern to geoscientists and stakeholders.展开更多
Radiative fluxes are of primary importance in the energy and mass balance of the sea-ice cover. Various parameterizations of the radiative fluxes are studied in a thermodynamic sea-ice model. Model outputs of the surf...Radiative fluxes are of primary importance in the energy and mass balance of the sea-ice cover. Various parameterizations of the radiative fluxes are studied in a thermodynamic sea-ice model. Model outputs of the surface radiative and heat fluxes and mass balance are compared with observations. The contribution of short-wave radiation is limited to a long part of winter. Therefore, simple schemes are often sufficient. Errors in estimations of the short-wave radiation are due mainly to cloud effects and occasionally to multi-reflection between surface and ice crystals in the air. The long-wave radiation plays an important role in the ice surface heat and mass balance during most part of a winter. The effect of clouds on the accuracy of the simple radiative schemes is critical, which needs further attention. In general, the accuracy of an ice model depends on that of the radiative fluxes.展开更多
This study is focused on climate-induced variation of sea level in Stockholm during 1873-1995. After the effect of the land uplift, is removed, the residual is characterized and related to large-scale temperature and ...This study is focused on climate-induced variation of sea level in Stockholm during 1873-1995. After the effect of the land uplift, is removed, the residual is characterized and related to large-scale temperature and atmospheric circulation. The residual shows an overall upward trend, although this result depends on the uplift rate used. However, the seasonal distribution of the trend is uneven. There are even two months （June and August） that show a negative trend. The significant trend in August may be linked to fresh water input that is controlled by precipitation. The influence of the atmospheric conditions on the sea level is mainly manifested through zonal winds, vorticity and temperature. While the wind is important in the period January-May, the vorticity plays a main role during June and December. A successful linear multiple-regression model linking the climatic variables （zonal winds, vorticity and mean air temperature during the previous two months） and the sea level is established for each month. An independent verification of the model shows that it has considerable skill in simulating the variability.展开更多
Collaboration between China and Finland in marine sciences was commenced in winter 1988.The main topic was then short-term sea ice forecasting in the seasonal sea ice zone(SSIZ),particularly in the Bohai Sea in China ...Collaboration between China and Finland in marine sciences was commenced in winter 1988.The main topic was then short-term sea ice forecasting in the seasonal sea ice zone(SSIZ),particularly in the Bohai Sea in China and the Baltic Sea in Finland.The sea ice in SSIZ is thin and highly dynamic so that ice conditions may change rapidly.While the length scales of the Baltic Sea and the Bohai Sea are similar,the main difference between them is that the former is brackish and non-tidal while the latter is oceanic for the salinity and possesses a large tidal amplitude.The Bohai Sea is located at latitudes 37°N-41°N,and the Baltic Sea is located at latitudes 55°N-66°N.However,the same sea ice model is applicable for both.The main application field of sea ice forecasting was winter shipping in Finland and oil drilling in China.The collaboration was successful and in late 1990s the research was expanded to polar seas,lakes,and to climate change applications.展开更多
When one applies the wavelet transform to analyze finite-length time series, discontinuities at the data boundaries will distort its wavelet power spectrum in some regions which are defined as a wavelength-dependent c...When one applies the wavelet transform to analyze finite-length time series, discontinuities at the data boundaries will distort its wavelet power spectrum in some regions which are defined as a wavelength-dependent cone of influence （COI）. In the COI, significance tests are unreliable. At the same time, as many time series are short and noisy, the COI is a serious limitation in wavelet analysis of time series. In this paper, we will give a method to reduce boundary effects and discover significant frequencies in the COI. After that, we will apply our method to analyze Greenland winter temperature and Baltic sea ice. The new method makes use of line removal and odd extension of the time series. This causes the derivative of the series to be continuous （unlike the case for other padding methods）. This will give the most reasonable padding methodology if the time series being analyzed has red noise characteristics.展开更多
基金supported by the Estonian University of Life Sciences Grant P220167MIMP"Sustainable Geodetic Reference Framework for Estonia's Coastal and Mainland Areas to Address Global Climate Challenges"。
文摘This study investigates the rate of sea level rise along the Estonian coastline of the Baltic Sea over the three decades(1993-2022)using tide gauge data and advanced analytical methods.Tide gauge data were analyzed using an open-source software based on the"TG Analysis"method developed by Kristian Breili.The results reveal significant spatial and temporal variability:the average relative sea level rise was 1.35±1.91 mm/yr over the three decades,with a notable acceleration to 9.01±8.67 mm/yr in the last decade(2013-2022).Absolute sea level rise,after correction for land uplift(NKG2016LU),averaged4.16±1.81 mm/yr.Regional differences were observed,with faster relative sea level rise in areas of slower land uplift(e.g.,P??rnu,Virtsu)and vice versa.The data and trends were further analyzed by applying advanced analytical methods(differentiation,spectral and segmented regression analysis,and sea level model validation).By differentiating the sea level rise trends along the Estonian coast,and comparing tide gauge data with data from Stockholm and Hanko,the results show a minimal velocity difference(0.65 mm/yr),confirming the reliability of the trends.Spectral analysis and segmented regression analysis identified breakpoints mainly in the early 1990s,with the transition to automated tide gauges in 2010 having no significant impact.Validation of the ESA BalticSEAL model showed good performance in western Estonia,while larger discrepancies were observed in the northern regions,which are linked to local geophysical factor.
基金This project was funded by Energimyndigheten[Grant No.47054-1]funded by the Swedish Research Council[Grant No.2012-03902]+4 种基金Uppsala Universitypart of the Swedish strategic research program StandUp for Windsupported by Formas project[2017-00516]Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and Numerical Modeling,Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology[No.2019B04)partially funded by the Swedish Research Council through grant agreement[No.2018-05973]。
文摘Accurate wind modeling is important for wind resources assessment and wind power forecasting. To improve the WRF model configuration for the offshore wind modeling over the Baltic Sea, this study performed a sensitivity study of the WRF model to multiple model configurations, including domain setup,grid resolution, sea surface temperature, land surface data, and atmosphere-wave coupling. The simulated offshore wind was evaluated against LiDAR observations under different wind directions, atmospheric stabilities, and sea status. Generally, the simulated wind profiles matched observations, despite systematic underestimations. Strengthening the forcing from the reanalysis data through reducing the number of nested domains played the largest role in improving wind modeling. Atmosphere-wave coupling further improved the simulated wind, especially under the growing and mature sea conditions.Increasing the vertical resolution, and updating the sea surface temperature and the land surface information only had a slight impact, mainly visible during very stable conditions. Increasing the horizontal resolution also only had a slight impact, most visible during unstable conditions. Our study can help to improve the wind resources assessment and wind power forecasting over the Baltic Sea.
基金supported by the Regional Fund for Environment Protection and Water Management in Gdansk(No WFOS/D/210/130/2008)
文摘The aim of this study was to characterize mercury （Hg） contamination in the coastal waters of the Southern Baltic Sea, and to investigate transformations of Hg in the initial links of the marine food chain. Concentrations of Hg in water, particulate matter, plankton and macrophytes at various stations in the coastal zone （a bay with restricted water exchange, near an industrial city, river mouths, and the open sea） were measured in 2006–2008. Hg concentrations observed in the Southern Baltic varied greatly, showing the highest average values in all environmental compartments near the river mouths. In shallow, sheltered parts of the gulf, where water exchange is restricted, Hg concentrations in the water and in macrophytes were elevated relative to those in the coastal zone of the deeper part of the bay and in the open Baltic. Distance to the river mouth, terrestrial runoff, and quantity and quality of organic matter were more important than seasonal variations in controlling Hg and HgSPM concentrations in water samples. Mercury concentrations in the surface microlayer at the air/sea interface were over 10 times higher than those in the bulk surface water. Concentrations of Hg in macrophytes in the winter were significantly higher than those in the warm seasons （spring, summer, autumn）. This was probably the combined effect of higher availability of Hg in porewaters and leaf growth inhibition.
基金funding from the project “Future flooding risks at the Swedish Coast: Extreme situations in present and future climat”, Ref. No. P02/12 by Lansforsakringsbolagens Forskningsfondthrough the Swedish Civil Contingencies Agency (MSB) through the project “Hazard Support: Risk-based decision support for adaptation to future natural hazards”
文摘Mean sea level rise and climatological wind speed changes occur as part of the ongoing climate change and future projections of both variables are still highly uncertain. Here the Baltic Sea’s response in extreme sea levels to perturbations in mean sea level and wind speeds is investigated in a series of simulations with a newly developed storm surge model based on the nucleus for European modeling of the ocean(NEMO)-Nordic. A simple linear model with only two tunable parameters is found to capture the changes in the return levels extremely well. The response to mean sea level rise is linear and nearly spatially uniform, meaning that a mean sea level rise of 1 m increases the return levels by a equal amount everywhere. The response to wind speed perturbations is more complicated and return levels are found to increase more where they are already high. This behaviour is alarming as it suggests that already flooding prone regions like the Gulf of Finland will be disproportionally adversely affected in a future windier climate.
文摘The Baltic Sea is a brackish, mediterranean sea located in the middle latitudes of Europe. It is seasonally covered with ice. The ice covered areas during a typical winter are the Bothnian Bay, the Gulf of Finnland and the Gulf of Riga. Sea ice plays an important role in dynamic and thermodynamic processes and also has a strong impact on the heat budget of the sea. Also a large part of transport goes by sea, and there is a need to create ice charts to make the marine transport safe. Because of high cloudiness in winter season and small amount of light in the northern part of the Baltic Sea, radar data are the most important remote sensing source of sea ice information. The main goal of the following studies is classification of the Baltic sea ice cover using radar data. The ENVISAT ASAR （Advanced Synthetic Aperture Radar） acquires data in five different modes. In the following studies ASAR Wide Swath Mode data were used. The Wide Swath Mode, using the ScanSAR technique provides medium resolution images （150 m） over a swath of 405 kin, at HH or VV polarization. In following work data from February 13th, February 24th and April 6th, 2011, representing three different sea ice situations were chosen. OBIA （object-based image analysis） methods and texture parameters were used to create sea ice extent and sea ice concentration charts. Based on object-based methods, it can separate single sea ice floes within the ice pack and calculate more accurately sea ice concentration.
文摘This research aims to optimize the utilization of long-term sea level data from the TOPEX/Poseidon,Jason1,Jason2,and Jason3 altimetry missions for tidal modeling.We generate a time series of along-track observations and apply a developed method to produce tidal models with specific tidal constituents for each location.Our tidal modeling methodology follows an iterative process:partitioning sea surface height(SSH)observations into analysis/training and prediction/validation parts and ultimately identi-fying the set of tidal constituents that provide the best predictions at each time series location.The study focuses on developing 1256 time series along the altimetry tracks over the Baltic Sea,each with its own set of tidal constituents.Verification of the developed tidal models against the sSH observations within the prediction/validation part reveals mean absolute error(MAE)values ranging from 0.0334 m to 0.1349 m,with an average MAE of 0.089 m.The same validation process is conducted on the FES2014 and EOT20 global tidal models,demonstrating that our tidal model,referred to as BT23(short for Baltic Tide 2023),outperforms both models with an average MAE improvement of 0.0417 m and 0.0346 m,respectively.In addition to providing details on the development of the time series and the tidal modeling procedure,we offer the 1256 along-track time series and their associated tidal models as supplementary materials.We encourage the satellite altimetry community to utilize these resources for further research and applications.
基金supported by the Academy of Finland (Grant no.259537)The Young Scientists Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant no.41206186) is acknowledged
文摘During years 1980/1981-2012/2013, inter-annual variations in sea ice and snow thickness in Kemi, in the northern coast of the Gulf of Bothnia, Baltic Sea, depended on the air temperature, snow fall, and rain. Inter-annual variations in the November--April mean air temperature, accumulated total precipitation, snow fall, and rain, as well as ice and snow thickness in Kemi and ice concentration in the Gulf of Bothnia correlated with inter-annual variations of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）, Arctic Oscillation （AO）, North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO）, Scandinavian Pattern （SCA）, and Polar / Eurasian Pattern （PEU）. The strong role of PDO is a new finding. In general, the relationships with PDO were approximately equally strong as those with AO, but rain and sea ice concentration were better correlated with PDO. The correlations with PDO were, however, not persistent; for a study period since 1950 the correlations were much lower. During 1980/1981--2012/2013, also the Pacific / North American Pattern （PNA） and E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） had statistical connections with the conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, revealed by analyzing their effects combined with those of PDO and AO. A reduced autumn sea ice area in the Arctic was related to increased rain and total precipitation in the following winter in Kemi. This correlation was significant for the Pan-Arctic sea ice area in September, October, and November, and for the November sea ice area in the Barents / Kara seas.
文摘Economic activity always has an impact on the environment, but the potential degree of this impact depends on consumption and production pattems. The aim of this paper is to analyse the environmental and well being impacts of consumption and production systems in Baltic Sea Region and draw conclusions about transferring of best practises in Latvia. This study is based on indicator analyses, focusing on data of environmental impacts from consumption and production in the region, and analyses drivers behind these impacts. The paper concludes two trends--Scandinavian countries and Germany which have more advanced economies demonstrate much higher ecoefficiency and environmental management practices compared to the new EU member states. The example of the Baltic Sea region shows that high income levels and a stable development path in the old EU member states provide grounds for technology advancement to reduce the environmental impact of production. However Baltic States and Poland on average demonstrate much more sustainable consumption patterns. But the trends in these countries are negative--they try to copy lifestyles and consumption patterns of more advanced economies with higher ecological footprint. Challenge for Latvia is to improve its ecoefficiency but at the same time develop more sustainable consumption patterns.
文摘This paper presents underwater relict forest fossil and ancient coast formation exploration results in the eastern Baltic Sea. Tree fossils and sediment layers discovered in the sea-bed were dated with 14^C along with palynological and dendrological analysis. Based on the obtained data, a fragment of submerged early Holocene landscape, coastline of the Yoldia Sea and Ancylus Lake has been reconstructed. The research data determine that vegetation and natural conditions of the Yoldia Sea coastal were favourable for Early Mesolithic communities. Well-preserved relict pine forest dates are also crucial to Baltic Sea water level dynamics analysis during the period： end of Yoldia Sea-Ancylus Lake.
文摘This paper presents research outcomes from an investigation into climate change and urban impacts on climate development in urban regions of the Baltic Sea coast. The cities considered were Rostock and Stockholm, and their surrounding regions. The objectives were: 1) to determine whether significant changes in temperature and precipitation have occurred and, if so, to what extent;and 2) to establish whether there is a noticeable urban heat island effect in Stockholm and the medium-sized city of Rostock. Climatic trends were detected by linear regression and the Mann- Kendall test. Different precipitation trends were detected over the whole period of observation. Average annual temperatures increased significantly in both case studies, particularly from the 1970s with highest trends in winter and lowest in autumn (Rostock) and summer (Stockholm). Although changes in temperature extremes were detected for both regions, no overall long-term trend for precipitation extremes was observed. The average temperature in the city of Rostock (Stockholm) was approximately 0.3°C to 0.6°C (1.2°C) higher than in the surrounding rural areas had seasonal variations, with maxima in the warm season. The main outcomes were that significant changes in climatic conditions, particularly temperature patterns, have been occurring in the case study regions since the 1980s, and that there is a considerable urban heat island effect in both Stockholm and Rostock. This could encourage urban planners to consider specific climatic conditions and small-scale climatic influences also in relatively small coastal urban conglomerates in mid latitudes which can follow from land use changes.
文摘Geoscientists play an increasingly important role in understanding climate change and its impacts.This is especially the case with adaptation to climate change which cannot be solved in isolated attempts,but calls for international cooperation and integrated approaches.The potential effects of climate change on natural hazards,as well as water and energy resources,are of great concern to geoscientists and stakeholders.
基金This study was a part of the Sino-Finnish long-term sea-ice research cooperationsupported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 40233032 and 40376006.
文摘Radiative fluxes are of primary importance in the energy and mass balance of the sea-ice cover. Various parameterizations of the radiative fluxes are studied in a thermodynamic sea-ice model. Model outputs of the surface radiative and heat fluxes and mass balance are compared with observations. The contribution of short-wave radiation is limited to a long part of winter. Therefore, simple schemes are often sufficient. Errors in estimations of the short-wave radiation are due mainly to cloud effects and occasionally to multi-reflection between surface and ice crystals in the air. The long-wave radiation plays an important role in the ice surface heat and mass balance during most part of a winter. The effect of clouds on the accuracy of the simple radiative schemes is critical, which needs further attention. In general, the accuracy of an ice model depends on that of the radiative fluxes.
文摘This study is focused on climate-induced variation of sea level in Stockholm during 1873-1995. After the effect of the land uplift, is removed, the residual is characterized and related to large-scale temperature and atmospheric circulation. The residual shows an overall upward trend, although this result depends on the uplift rate used. However, the seasonal distribution of the trend is uneven. There are even two months （June and August） that show a negative trend. The significant trend in August may be linked to fresh water input that is controlled by precipitation. The influence of the atmospheric conditions on the sea level is mainly manifested through zonal winds, vorticity and temperature. While the wind is important in the period January-May, the vorticity plays a main role during June and December. A successful linear multiple-regression model linking the climatic variables （zonal winds, vorticity and mean air temperature during the previous two months） and the sea level is established for each month. An independent verification of the model shows that it has considerable skill in simulating the variability.
基金provided for the collaborative research in Finland by the Ministry of Trade and Industry and the Academy of Finland, European Commission Marine Science and Technology Program
文摘Collaboration between China and Finland in marine sciences was commenced in winter 1988.The main topic was then short-term sea ice forecasting in the seasonal sea ice zone(SSIZ),particularly in the Bohai Sea in China and the Baltic Sea in Finland.The sea ice in SSIZ is thin and highly dynamic so that ice conditions may change rapidly.While the length scales of the Baltic Sea and the Bohai Sea are similar,the main difference between them is that the former is brackish and non-tidal while the latter is oceanic for the salinity and possesses a large tidal amplitude.The Bohai Sea is located at latitudes 37°N-41°N,and the Baltic Sea is located at latitudes 55°N-66°N.However,the same sea ice model is applicable for both.The main application field of sea ice forecasting was winter shipping in Finland and oil drilling in China.The collaboration was successful and in late 1990s the research was expanded to polar seas,lakes,and to climate change applications.
基金partially supported by the National Key Science Program for Global Change Research (Grant no.2010CB950504)the National High-Technology Research & Development Program of China (863 Program,Grant no.2010AA012305)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant no.41076125)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (Key Program)the Polar Climate and Environment Key Laboratory
文摘When one applies the wavelet transform to analyze finite-length time series, discontinuities at the data boundaries will distort its wavelet power spectrum in some regions which are defined as a wavelength-dependent cone of influence （COI）. In the COI, significance tests are unreliable. At the same time, as many time series are short and noisy, the COI is a serious limitation in wavelet analysis of time series. In this paper, we will give a method to reduce boundary effects and discover significant frequencies in the COI. After that, we will apply our method to analyze Greenland winter temperature and Baltic sea ice. The new method makes use of line removal and odd extension of the time series. This causes the derivative of the series to be continuous （unlike the case for other padding methods）. This will give the most reasonable padding methodology if the time series being analyzed has red noise characteristics.
