Accurate estimation of rockfall trajectories is essential for mitigation of rockfall hazards.Nowadays,Doppler radar technologies can measure rockfall trajectories with centimeter resolution.Calibrating a numerical mod...Accurate estimation of rockfall trajectories is essential for mitigation of rockfall hazards.Nowadays,Doppler radar technologies can measure rockfall trajectories with centimeter resolution.Calibrating a numerical model to fit these measured trajectories,i.e.back analysis,often involves manual trial-anderror processes and subjective goodness-of-fit criteria.Here,we propose a framework that uses the chi-square statistic to quantify the misfit between modeled and measured rockfall trajectories.The framework can also quantify the uncertainty bounds on the best-fit model parameters.The approach is validated using field data from an Australian copper mine under two scenarios.(1)We perform an unconstrained back-analysis where the initial position and velocity of the rock,in addition to the coefficients of restitution(COR),are free variables.This scenario yields a normal COR Rn?0.866±0.109 and tangential COR R_(t)=0.29±0.151 with 68%confidence.(2)We perform a constrained back-analysis using predetermined initial position and velocity of the rock,which further constrains Rn to 0.8±0.014 and Rt to 0.39±0.065.Both scenarios show a higher uncertainty in Rt than in Rn.We also demonstrate the adaptability of the back-analysis framework to two-dimensional(2D)rockfall modeling using the same data.To the best of our knowledge,this is the first quantitative goodness-of-fit metric for trajectorybased rockfall back analysis that supports the estimation of inherent uncertainty.The simplicity of the metric lends itself to robust model optimization of rockfall back-analysis and can be adapted to other model assumptions(e.g.rigid-body mechanics)and metrics(e.g.velocity or energy).展开更多
Probabilistic back-analysis is an important means to infer the statistics of uncertain soil parameters,making the slope reliability assessment closer to the engineering reality.However,multi-source information(includi...Probabilistic back-analysis is an important means to infer the statistics of uncertain soil parameters,making the slope reliability assessment closer to the engineering reality.However,multi-source information(including test data,monitored data,field observation and slope survival records)is rarely used in current probabilistic back-analysis.Conducting the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction under rainfalls by integrating multi-source information is a challenging task since thousands of random variables and high-dimensional likelihood function are usually involved.In this paper,a framework by integrating a modified Bayesian Updating with Subset simulation(mBUS)method with adaptive Conditional Sampling(aCS)algorithm is established for the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction.Within this framework,the high-dimensional probabilistic back-analysis problem can be easily tackled,and the multi-source information(e.g.monitored pressure heads and slope survival records)can be fully used in the back-analysis.A real Taoyuan landslide case in Taiwan,China is investigated to illustrate the effectiveness and performance of the established framework.The findings show that the posterior knowledge of soil parameters obtained from the established framework is in good agreement with the field observations.Furthermore,the updated knowledge of soil parameters can be utilized to reliably predict the occurrence probability of a landslide caused by the heavy rainfall event on September 12,2004 or forecast the potential landslides under future rainfalls in the Fuhsing District of Taoyuan City,Taiwan,China.展开更多
A new back-analysis method of ground stress is proposed with comprehensive consideration of influence of topography, geology and nonlinear physical mechanical properties of rock on ground stress. This method based on ...A new back-analysis method of ground stress is proposed with comprehensive consideration of influence of topography, geology and nonlinear physical mechanical properties of rock on ground stress. This method based on non-uniform rational B-spline (NURBS) technology provides the means to build a refined three-dimensional finite element model with more accurate meshing under complex terrain and geological conditions. Meanwhile, this method is a back-analysis of ground stress with combination of multivariable linear regression model and neural network (ANN) model. Firstly, the regression model is used to fit approximately boundary loads. Regarding the regressed loads as mean value, some sets of boundary loads with the same interval are constructed according to the principle of orthogonal design, to calculate the corresponding ground stress at the observation positions using finite element method. The results (boundary loads and the corresponding ground stress) are added to the samples for ANN training. And on this basis, an ANN model is established to implement higher precise back-analysis of initial ground stress. A practical application case shows that the relative error between the inversed ground stress and observed value is mostly less than 10 %, which can meet the need of engineering design and construction requirements.展开更多
In this paper,a new method of back analysis for determming the parameters ofrheological surrounding rock is proposed. This method is based on the elastic-viscoelastic correspondence principle, and the rheological para...In this paper,a new method of back analysis for determming the parameters ofrheological surrounding rock is proposed. This method is based on the elastic-viscoelastic correspondence principle, and the rheological parameters are backanalyzed from the measured displacements during construction of the tunnel. A numerical example proves that the proposed method is applicable toengineering practice.展开更多
Estimation of in situ stresses based on back-analysis of measured stress changes and displacements has become an alternative to the direct stress measurement methods.In order to help users conduct own measurement and ...Estimation of in situ stresses based on back-analysis of measured stress changes and displacements has become an alternative to the direct stress measurement methods.In order to help users conduct own measurement and analysis,this paper presents in detail a field stress back-analysis approach directly from borehole strain changes measured during nearby underground excavation.Essential formulations in major steps and the procedure for the entire analysis process are provided to allow users to follow.The instrument for borehole strain change measurement can be the CSIR or CSIRO stress cells and other borehole strain cells that can measure strains on borehole walls.Strain changes corresponding to the stress changes at a borehole location are calculated in borehole environment.The stress changes due to nearby excavation can be calculated by an analytical model for a single circular opening and simulated by a numerical model for non-circular and multiple openings.These models are based on isotropic,homogeneous and linear elastic assumptions.The analysis of borehole strain changes is accomplished by multiple linear regression based on error minimization and an integrated process provides the best-fit solution directly to the in situ stresses.A statistical technique is adopted for screening outliers in the measurement data,checking measurement compatibility and evaluating the reliability of analysis results.An application example is included to demonstrate the practical application and the analysis procedure.展开更多
This paper presents two case studies where the rock mass modulus and in situ stress are estimated from the monitoring data obtained during the construction of underground excavations in Sydney,Australia.The case studi...This paper presents two case studies where the rock mass modulus and in situ stress are estimated from the monitoring data obtained during the construction of underground excavations in Sydney,Australia.The case studies comprise the widening of existing twin road tunnels within Hawkesbury sandstone and the excavation of a large cavern within Ashfield shale.While back-analysis from detailed systematic monitoring has been previously published,this paper presents a relatively simple methodology to derive rock mass modulus and in situ stress from the relatively simple displacement data routinely recorded during tunnelling.展开更多
Being aimed at the ground subsidence due to underground coal mining,a numerical model of rock was established and an appropriate method of numerical simulation was put forward.Using the measured subsidence data on the...Being aimed at the ground subsidence due to underground coal mining,a numerical model of rock was established and an appropriate method of numerical simulation was put forward.Using the measured subsidence data on the ground,the equivalent mechanical parameters of the rock stratums can be back-calculated by the properly treatment of coal excavation area,then the ground subsidence of other coal mining area can be predicted by FFM.It provided reference for the treatment of the buildings on the ground of this colliery.展开更多
Spalling of pillar ribs has been a major hazard in the mining industry for decades.In the absence of rib support guidelines,accidents have continued to occur in recent years.Developing effective support guidelines req...Spalling of pillar ribs has been a major hazard in the mining industry for decades.In the absence of rib support guidelines,accidents have continued to occur in recent years.Developing effective support guidelines requires a complete understanding of complex pillar damage mechanisms.Continuum models represent a convenient tool for analyzing this problem,but the behavior of such models is dependent of the choice of the constitutive model.In this study,a recently proposed constitutive model was used to simulate the rib fracturing process in a longwall chain pillar at West Cliff mine.After calibration,the model was able to capture the rib displacement profiles for multiple locations of the longwall face and the stress evolution 4 m into the pillar.The rib bolts in the model were found to be yielding over 60% of their length under the headgate loading condition.The model also predicted a steady damage accumulation in the rib for certain face locations,which is consistent with the description of the rib at the site.Damage was localized along the upper part of the pillar and underscored the role that the dirt band played in controlling rib deterioration at the site.The ability of the numerical model to replicate field measurements provides confidence in the capabilities of the new constitutive model.Finally,the need of using multi-point calibration is highlighted by comparing the results of the calibrated model to an alternative model calibrated to a smaller amount of data.展开更多
In this study,the mechanisms of slope instabilities triggered by engineering excavations at location of a planned tunnel portal in the northwest region of Turkey were assessed,and stability of the current slopes which...In this study,the mechanisms of slope instabilities triggered by engineering excavations at location of a planned tunnel portal in the northwest region of Turkey were assessed,and stability of the current slopes which has impacts on safety of a settlement(village)and agricultural fields was investigated.In the first stage of the study,in order to identify the geological units and structural properties of the sedimentary rocks in the area,to clarify the mechanisms of instabilities and to characterize discontinuity and rock mass properties field works were conducted.In this content,geotechnical boreholes,geophysical explorations between the boreholes,line surveys to explore discontinuity properties,preparation of slope profiles using topographical techniques and sampling of rock blocks and discontinuity planes were performed.In the second stage,laboratory tests were carried out on the samples to determine the geomechnical properties of the slope forming materials and discontinuities.Then,back analyses of the instabilities were made to assess the responsible shear strength parameters of the geological units during failures by considering laboratory shear test results too.Based on the backanalyses of the failures,the strength properties of the slope debris were estimated,and it has been clarified that the residual shear strength properties are the factors controlling slip mechanism along the beddings.Following the stability analyses,it is understood that a further instability along the mass or bedding planes in the failed and redesigned area are not expected,if the current slope geometry is not changed.However,safety factor calculated for the slope in the debris is 1.1 which is well below the recommended value in the literature.The minimum safety factor for currently stable slopes which were cut at the eastern part of the failed area is 1.22 which is also less than that suggested in literature.Some remedial measures such as mini-pile or slope flattening are suggested after analyses to increase the factor of safety for this part below the settlement.展开更多
The basic features of the colluvial deposit slope in Zuoyituo such as geological conditions, dimensions, slip surfaces and groundwater conditions are described concisely in this paper. The formation mechanism of the s...The basic features of the colluvial deposit slope in Zuoyituo such as geological conditions, dimensions, slip surfaces and groundwater conditions are described concisely in this paper. The formation mechanism of the slope is discussed. It is considered that the formation of the colluvial deposit slope in Zuoyituo has undergone accumulation, slip, load, deformation and failure. The effects of rainfall on slope stability are categorized systematically based on existing methodology, and ways to determine the effects quantitatively are presented. The remained slip force method is improved by the addition of quantitative relations to the existing formulae and programs. The parameters of the colluvial deposit slope are determined through experimentation and the method of back-analysis. The safety factors of the slope are calculated with the improved remained slip force method and the Sarma method. The results show that rainfall and water level in the Yangtze River have a significant effect on the stability of the colluvial deposit slope in Zuoyituo. The hazards caused by the instability of the slope are assessed, and prevention methods are put forward.展开更多
Studying strong motion records and the spatial distribution of ground shaking is of great importance in understanding the underlying causes of damage in earthquakes. Many regions in the world are either not instrument...Studying strong motion records and the spatial distribution of ground shaking is of great importance in understanding the underlying causes of damage in earthquakes. Many regions in the world are either not instrumented or are sparsely instrumented. As such, significant opportunities for motion-damage correlations are lost. Two recent and damaging earthquakes belong to the class of lost opportunities, namely the Kashmir （Pakistan） earthquake of October 2005 and the Yogyakarta （Indonesia） earthquake of May 2006. In this paper, an overview of the importance of supply and demand studies in earthquake-stricken regions is given, followed by two examples of investigative engineering seismology aimed at reconstructing the hazard from sparse data. The paper closes with a plea for responsible authorities to invest in seismic monitoring networks in the very near future.展开更多
Back-analysis is broadly used for approaching geotechnical problems when monitoring data are available and information about the soils properties is of poor quality.For landslide stability assessment back-analysis cal...Back-analysis is broadly used for approaching geotechnical problems when monitoring data are available and information about the soils properties is of poor quality.For landslide stability assessment back-analysis calibration is usually carried out by time consuming trial-and-error procedure.This paper presents a new automatic Decision Support System that supports the selection of the soil parameters for three-dimensional models of landslides based on monitoring data.The method considering a pool of possible solutions,generated through permutation of soil parameters,selects the best ten configurations that are more congruent with the measured displacements.This reduces the operator biases while on the other hand allows the operator to control each step of the computation.The final selection of the preferred solution among the ten best-fitting solutions is carried out by an operator.The operator control is necessary as he may include in the final decision process all the qualitative elements that cannot be included in a qualitative analysis but nevertheless characterize a landslide dynamic as a whole epistemological subject,for example on the base of geomorphological evidence.A landslide located in Northeast Italy has been selected as example for showing the system potentiality.The proposed method is straightforward,scalable and robust and could be useful for researchers and practitioners.展开更多
基金funding from NSERC Alliance Grant ALLRP 576858e22 in partnership with Rocscience Inc.
文摘Accurate estimation of rockfall trajectories is essential for mitigation of rockfall hazards.Nowadays,Doppler radar technologies can measure rockfall trajectories with centimeter resolution.Calibrating a numerical model to fit these measured trajectories,i.e.back analysis,often involves manual trial-anderror processes and subjective goodness-of-fit criteria.Here,we propose a framework that uses the chi-square statistic to quantify the misfit between modeled and measured rockfall trajectories.The framework can also quantify the uncertainty bounds on the best-fit model parameters.The approach is validated using field data from an Australian copper mine under two scenarios.(1)We perform an unconstrained back-analysis where the initial position and velocity of the rock,in addition to the coefficients of restitution(COR),are free variables.This scenario yields a normal COR Rn?0.866±0.109 and tangential COR R_(t)=0.29±0.151 with 68%confidence.(2)We perform a constrained back-analysis using predetermined initial position and velocity of the rock,which further constrains Rn to 0.8±0.014 and Rt to 0.39±0.065.Both scenarios show a higher uncertainty in Rt than in Rn.We also demonstrate the adaptability of the back-analysis framework to two-dimensional(2D)rockfall modeling using the same data.To the best of our knowledge,this is the first quantitative goodness-of-fit metric for trajectorybased rockfall back analysis that supports the estimation of inherent uncertainty.The simplicity of the metric lends itself to robust model optimization of rockfall back-analysis and can be adapted to other model assumptions(e.g.rigid-body mechanics)and metrics(e.g.velocity or energy).
文摘Probabilistic back-analysis is an important means to infer the statistics of uncertain soil parameters,making the slope reliability assessment closer to the engineering reality.However,multi-source information(including test data,monitored data,field observation and slope survival records)is rarely used in current probabilistic back-analysis.Conducting the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction under rainfalls by integrating multi-source information is a challenging task since thousands of random variables and high-dimensional likelihood function are usually involved.In this paper,a framework by integrating a modified Bayesian Updating with Subset simulation(mBUS)method with adaptive Conditional Sampling(aCS)algorithm is established for the probabilistic back-analysis of spatially varying soil parameters and slope reliability prediction.Within this framework,the high-dimensional probabilistic back-analysis problem can be easily tackled,and the multi-source information(e.g.monitored pressure heads and slope survival records)can be fully used in the back-analysis.A real Taoyuan landslide case in Taiwan,China is investigated to illustrate the effectiveness and performance of the established framework.The findings show that the posterior knowledge of soil parameters obtained from the established framework is in good agreement with the field observations.Furthermore,the updated knowledge of soil parameters can be utilized to reliably predict the occurrence probability of a landslide caused by the heavy rainfall event on September 12,2004 or forecast the potential landslides under future rainfalls in the Fuhsing District of Taoyuan City,Taiwan,China.
基金Innovative Research Groups of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51021004)National Science Foundation of China (No. 51079096)Program for New Century Excellent Talents in University (No. NCET-08-0391)
文摘A new back-analysis method of ground stress is proposed with comprehensive consideration of influence of topography, geology and nonlinear physical mechanical properties of rock on ground stress. This method based on non-uniform rational B-spline (NURBS) technology provides the means to build a refined three-dimensional finite element model with more accurate meshing under complex terrain and geological conditions. Meanwhile, this method is a back-analysis of ground stress with combination of multivariable linear regression model and neural network (ANN) model. Firstly, the regression model is used to fit approximately boundary loads. Regarding the regressed loads as mean value, some sets of boundary loads with the same interval are constructed according to the principle of orthogonal design, to calculate the corresponding ground stress at the observation positions using finite element method. The results (boundary loads and the corresponding ground stress) are added to the samples for ANN training. And on this basis, an ANN model is established to implement higher precise back-analysis of initial ground stress. A practical application case shows that the relative error between the inversed ground stress and observed value is mostly less than 10 %, which can meet the need of engineering design and construction requirements.
文摘In this paper,a new method of back analysis for determming the parameters ofrheological surrounding rock is proposed. This method is based on the elastic-viscoelastic correspondence principle, and the rheological parameters are backanalyzed from the measured displacements during construction of the tunnel. A numerical example proves that the proposed method is applicable toengineering practice.
文摘Estimation of in situ stresses based on back-analysis of measured stress changes and displacements has become an alternative to the direct stress measurement methods.In order to help users conduct own measurement and analysis,this paper presents in detail a field stress back-analysis approach directly from borehole strain changes measured during nearby underground excavation.Essential formulations in major steps and the procedure for the entire analysis process are provided to allow users to follow.The instrument for borehole strain change measurement can be the CSIR or CSIRO stress cells and other borehole strain cells that can measure strains on borehole walls.Strain changes corresponding to the stress changes at a borehole location are calculated in borehole environment.The stress changes due to nearby excavation can be calculated by an analytical model for a single circular opening and simulated by a numerical model for non-circular and multiple openings.These models are based on isotropic,homogeneous and linear elastic assumptions.The analysis of borehole strain changes is accomplished by multiple linear regression based on error minimization and an integrated process provides the best-fit solution directly to the in situ stresses.A statistical technique is adopted for screening outliers in the measurement data,checking measurement compatibility and evaluating the reliability of analysis results.An application example is included to demonstrate the practical application and the analysis procedure.
文摘This paper presents two case studies where the rock mass modulus and in situ stress are estimated from the monitoring data obtained during the construction of underground excavations in Sydney,Australia.The case studies comprise the widening of existing twin road tunnels within Hawkesbury sandstone and the excavation of a large cavern within Ashfield shale.While back-analysis from detailed systematic monitoring has been previously published,this paper presents a relatively simple methodology to derive rock mass modulus and in situ stress from the relatively simple displacement data routinely recorded during tunnelling.
文摘Being aimed at the ground subsidence due to underground coal mining,a numerical model of rock was established and an appropriate method of numerical simulation was put forward.Using the measured subsidence data on the ground,the equivalent mechanical parameters of the rock stratums can be back-calculated by the properly treatment of coal excavation area,then the ground subsidence of other coal mining area can be predicted by FFM.It provided reference for the treatment of the buildings on the ground of this colliery.
基金funded by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health(NIOSH)(Grant No.200-2016-90154)sponsored by the Alpha Foundation for the Improvement of Mine Safety and Health,Inc.(ALPHA FOUNDATION)。
文摘Spalling of pillar ribs has been a major hazard in the mining industry for decades.In the absence of rib support guidelines,accidents have continued to occur in recent years.Developing effective support guidelines requires a complete understanding of complex pillar damage mechanisms.Continuum models represent a convenient tool for analyzing this problem,but the behavior of such models is dependent of the choice of the constitutive model.In this study,a recently proposed constitutive model was used to simulate the rib fracturing process in a longwall chain pillar at West Cliff mine.After calibration,the model was able to capture the rib displacement profiles for multiple locations of the longwall face and the stress evolution 4 m into the pillar.The rib bolts in the model were found to be yielding over 60% of their length under the headgate loading condition.The model also predicted a steady damage accumulation in the rib for certain face locations,which is consistent with the description of the rib at the site.Damage was localized along the upper part of the pillar and underscored the role that the dirt band played in controlling rib deterioration at the site.The ability of the numerical model to replicate field measurements provides confidence in the capabilities of the new constitutive model.Finally,the need of using multi-point calibration is highlighted by comparing the results of the calibrated model to an alternative model calibrated to a smaller amount of data.
文摘In this study,the mechanisms of slope instabilities triggered by engineering excavations at location of a planned tunnel portal in the northwest region of Turkey were assessed,and stability of the current slopes which has impacts on safety of a settlement(village)and agricultural fields was investigated.In the first stage of the study,in order to identify the geological units and structural properties of the sedimentary rocks in the area,to clarify the mechanisms of instabilities and to characterize discontinuity and rock mass properties field works were conducted.In this content,geotechnical boreholes,geophysical explorations between the boreholes,line surveys to explore discontinuity properties,preparation of slope profiles using topographical techniques and sampling of rock blocks and discontinuity planes were performed.In the second stage,laboratory tests were carried out on the samples to determine the geomechnical properties of the slope forming materials and discontinuities.Then,back analyses of the instabilities were made to assess the responsible shear strength parameters of the geological units during failures by considering laboratory shear test results too.Based on the backanalyses of the failures,the strength properties of the slope debris were estimated,and it has been clarified that the residual shear strength properties are the factors controlling slip mechanism along the beddings.Following the stability analyses,it is understood that a further instability along the mass or bedding planes in the failed and redesigned area are not expected,if the current slope geometry is not changed.However,safety factor calculated for the slope in the debris is 1.1 which is well below the recommended value in the literature.The minimum safety factor for currently stable slopes which were cut at the eastern part of the failed area is 1.22 which is also less than that suggested in literature.Some remedial measures such as mini-pile or slope flattening are suggested after analyses to increase the factor of safety for this part below the settlement.
文摘The basic features of the colluvial deposit slope in Zuoyituo such as geological conditions, dimensions, slip surfaces and groundwater conditions are described concisely in this paper. The formation mechanism of the slope is discussed. It is considered that the formation of the colluvial deposit slope in Zuoyituo has undergone accumulation, slip, load, deformation and failure. The effects of rainfall on slope stability are categorized systematically based on existing methodology, and ways to determine the effects quantitatively are presented. The remained slip force method is improved by the addition of quantitative relations to the existing formulae and programs. The parameters of the colluvial deposit slope are determined through experimentation and the method of back-analysis. The safety factors of the slope are calculated with the improved remained slip force method and the Sarma method. The results show that rainfall and water level in the Yangtze River have a significant effect on the stability of the colluvial deposit slope in Zuoyituo. The hazards caused by the instability of the slope are assessed, and prevention methods are put forward.
基金the Mid-America Earthquake Center, a National Science Foundation Engineering Research Center Supported Under Grant Reference EEC-9701785
文摘Studying strong motion records and the spatial distribution of ground shaking is of great importance in understanding the underlying causes of damage in earthquakes. Many regions in the world are either not instrumented or are sparsely instrumented. As such, significant opportunities for motion-damage correlations are lost. Two recent and damaging earthquakes belong to the class of lost opportunities, namely the Kashmir （Pakistan） earthquake of October 2005 and the Yogyakarta （Indonesia） earthquake of May 2006. In this paper, an overview of the importance of supply and demand studies in earthquake-stricken regions is given, followed by two examples of investigative engineering seismology aimed at reconstructing the hazard from sparse data. The paper closes with a plea for responsible authorities to invest in seismic monitoring networks in the very near future.
基金financed by the CNR-IRPI in the context of the SinoItalian Laboratory on Geological and Hydrological Hazards(CUPB96J16001430005)between the National Research Council of Italy(CNR-IRPI)and the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS-IMHE)。
文摘Back-analysis is broadly used for approaching geotechnical problems when monitoring data are available and information about the soils properties is of poor quality.For landslide stability assessment back-analysis calibration is usually carried out by time consuming trial-and-error procedure.This paper presents a new automatic Decision Support System that supports the selection of the soil parameters for three-dimensional models of landslides based on monitoring data.The method considering a pool of possible solutions,generated through permutation of soil parameters,selects the best ten configurations that are more congruent with the measured displacements.This reduces the operator biases while on the other hand allows the operator to control each step of the computation.The final selection of the preferred solution among the ten best-fitting solutions is carried out by an operator.The operator control is necessary as he may include in the final decision process all the qualitative elements that cannot be included in a qualitative analysis but nevertheless characterize a landslide dynamic as a whole epistemological subject,for example on the base of geomorphological evidence.A landslide located in Northeast Italy has been selected as example for showing the system potentiality.The proposed method is straightforward,scalable and robust and could be useful for researchers and practitioners.
