The classification of dams or off-stream reservoirs concerning potential hazards in the event of failure often involves the use of two-dimensional hydraulic models for computing floodwave effects.These models necessit...The classification of dams or off-stream reservoirs concerning potential hazards in the event of failure often involves the use of two-dimensional hydraulic models for computing floodwave effects.These models necessitate defining breach geometry and formation time,for which various parametric models have been proposed.These models yield different values for average breach width,time of failure,and consequently,peak flows,as demonstrated by several researchers.This study analyzed the effect of selecting a breach parametric model on the hydraulic variables,potential damages,and hazard classification of structures.Three common parametric models were compared using a set of synthetic cases and a real off-stream reservoir.Results indicated significant effects of model choice.Material erodibility exerted a significant impact,surpassing that of failure mode.Other factors,such as the Manning coefficient,significantly affected the results.Utilizing an inadequate model or lacking information on dike material can lead to overly conservative or underestimated outcomes,thereby affecting hazard classification.展开更多
In this in-depth exploration, I delve into the complex implications and costs of cybersecurity breaches. Venturing beyond just the immediate repercussions, the research unearths both the overt and concealed long-term ...In this in-depth exploration, I delve into the complex implications and costs of cybersecurity breaches. Venturing beyond just the immediate repercussions, the research unearths both the overt and concealed long-term consequences that businesses encounter. This study integrates findings from various research, including quantitative reports, drawing upon real-world incidents faced by both small and large enterprises. This investigation emphasizes the profound intangible costs, such as trade name devaluation and potential damage to brand reputation, which can persist long after the breach. By collating insights from industry experts and a myriad of research, the study provides a comprehensive perspective on the profound, multi-dimensional impacts of cybersecurity incidents. The overarching aim is to underscore the often-underestimated scope and depth of these breaches, emphasizing the entire timeline post-incident and the urgent need for fortified preventative and reactive measures in the digital domain.展开更多
A simplified physically-based model was developed to simulate the breaching process of the Gouhou concrete-faced rockfill dam （CFRD）, which is the only breach case of a high CFRD in the world. Considering the dam he...A simplified physically-based model was developed to simulate the breaching process of the Gouhou concrete-faced rockfill dam （CFRD）, which is the only breach case of a high CFRD in the world. Considering the dam height, a hydraulic method was chosen to simulate the initial scour position on the downstream slope, with the steepening of the downstream slope taken into account; a headcut erosion formula was adopted to simulate the backward erosion as well. The moment equilibrium method was utilized to calculate the ultimate length of a concrete slab under its self-weight and water loads. The calculated results of the Gouhou CFRD breach case show that the proposed model provides reasonable peak breach flow, final breach width, and failure time, with relative errors less than 15% as compared with the measured data. Sensitivity studies show that the outputs of the proposed model are more or less sensitive to different parameters. Three typical parametric models were compared with the proposed model, and the comparison demonstrates that the proposed physically-based breach model performs better and provides more detailed results than the parametric models.展开更多
Every year, a number of breach failures occur in Irrigation Canals in Sindh. Those failures cause displacement of thousands of people, destruction of properties, land, and damage to costly crops that worth millions Ru...Every year, a number of breach failures occur in Irrigation Canals in Sindh. Those failures cause displacement of thousands of people, destruction of properties, land, and damage to costly crops that worth millions Rupees. In addition to that, breach failures also can cause water shortages when the failure occurs during the peak demand period. There are various causes of embankment failures which include overtopping, internal erosion, structural defects and piping. State of art for breach failures is presented in this paper and suggestions for prediction of breaches in context to canals in Sindh are discussed. Seepage and slope stability analyses are recommended for a long-term breach predictions.展开更多
Based on model tests of earthen dam breach due to piping failure, a numerical model was developed.A key difference from previous research is the assumption that the cross-section of the pipe channel is an arch, with a...Based on model tests of earthen dam breach due to piping failure, a numerical model was developed.A key difference from previous research is the assumption that the cross-section of the pipe channel is an arch, with a rectangle at the bottom and a semicircle at the top before the collapse of the pipe roof, rather than a rectangular or circular cross-section.A shear stress-based erosion rate formula was utilized, and the arched pipe tunnel was assumed to enlarge along its length and width until the overlying soil could no longer maintain stability.Orifice flow and open channel flow were adopted to calculate the breach flow discharge for pressure and free surface flows, respectively.The collapse of the pipe roof was determined by comparing the weight of the overlying soil and the cohesion of the soil on the two sidewalls of the pipe.After the collapse, overtopping failure dominated, and the limit equilibrium method was adopted to estimate the stability of the breach slope when the water flow overtopped.In addition, incomplete and base erosion, as well as one-and two-sided breaches were taken into account.The USDAARS-HERU model test P1, with detailed measured data, was used as a case study, and two artificially filled earthen dam failure cases were studied to verify the model.Feedback analysis demonstrates that the proposed model can provide satisfactory results for modeling the breach flow discharge and breach development process.Sensitivity analysis shows that the soil erodibility and initial piping position significantly affect the prediction of the breach flow discharge.Furthermore, a comparison with a well-known numerical model shows that the proposed model performs better than the NWS BREACH model.展开更多
The main objective of the present study is to introduce new empirical equations for the determination of breach geometrical dimensions and peak outflow discharge(Q_(p)).Therefore,a historic failure database of 109 emb...The main objective of the present study is to introduce new empirical equations for the determination of breach geometrical dimensions and peak outflow discharge(Q_(p)).Therefore,a historic failure database of 109 embankments was collected and examined.The most important factors that affect the breach evolution,including grading size,hydraulic,and outflow characteristics are also studied.Some of the parameters used for the determination of Q_(p) and average breach width(Bave)have a significant effect on the erosion process,but they are less reflected in the technical literature.To study the behavior of noncohesive soils during overtopping,15 physical tests were performed at the laboratory,and the effects of interfering parameters were investigated.The experimental output hydrograph was used to simulate the hydrographs resulting from the failure of real dams,and recent artificial intelligence techniques along with linear and nonlinear regression models were employed.The area-time analysis of the laboratory hydrographs shows that the soil particle size and the characteristics of reservoir-basin significantly affect the rate of breach formation and outflow discharge.New relationships are introduced,based on the breach characteristics,by a combination of historical and experimental data,as well as case studies conducted on the hypothetical failure of 10 operational dams.The mathematical model is also used to simulate the process of breach evaluation.Based on statistical indices,comparison of the results,and sensitivity analysis,the developed equations can better express the susceptibility of materials to erosion and their application can minimize downstream vulnerabilities.展开更多
Whenever levees on the Ohio or Mississippi rivers are breached, there are soil damages in the flooded areas that impact agricultural management capacities and crop productivity. Floodwaters coat the entire flooded lan...Whenever levees on the Ohio or Mississippi rivers are breached, there are soil damages in the flooded areas that impact agricultural management capacities and crop productivity. Floodwaters coat the entire flooded land surface with sediments which include a variety of pollutants, nutrients and contaminants. The nature of the sediments in floodwaters varies with the topographical and land use characteristics of the watershed. The soil types, hydro-geologic features, volume of flow, time of year, agricultural use of fertilizers, pesticides, and other chemicals as well as upstream point sources such as sewage treatment plants, storm sewer drainage and other urban land uses will affect the extent of the contamination and fine scale remediation needed. Preliminary characterization and measurement of soils and sediment deposit at three locations that experienced recent natural and man induced levee breaches are analyzed to identify patterns of soil and crop damage. These findings provide guidance to the restoration of craters, gullies, land scoured areas and contaminated sediment depositional sites with a goal to improve decision-making, risk analysis and remedial effectiveness. Recommendations include： （1） improve characterization and measurement of eroded soils and distribution of sediment contaminants after levee breaching; （2） assess contamination effects on soil productivity and long term agricultural production in order to understand the impacts of flooding on agricultural soils; （3） evaluate reconstruction investments needed to repair levees based on return of the land to productivity and increased landscape resilience by reducing vulnerability to future flooding and levee breaching stress.展开更多
Ethiopia has been booming with active construction of dams within the past few decades for different infrastructural needs, but has never experienced demolition or failure of dams in its history;hence little attention...Ethiopia has been booming with active construction of dams within the past few decades for different infrastructural needs, but has never experienced demolition or failure of dams in its history;hence little attention is being given to possible breach scenarios of dams and the resulting floodings. This paper makes analysis of the possible breach of kesem dam and the resulting flood inundation. In this study, the dam has been checked for both overtopping and piping failure modes using one dimensional river analysis model called HEC-RAS. Empirical equations were used to predict dam breach parameters of the two failure modes for use in this model. PMF inflow with a peak 9237.77 m3/s is used as an input to the reservoir to check if overtopping failure was possible. The spill way has proven to have adequate capacity for the flood due to the PMF. Therefore, breaching of the embankment was not possible. Piping failure was also simulated in HEC-RAS and the resulting breach due to piping failure, was analyzed and flood hydrograph was obtained at different cross sections along the river. These are flood hydrographs at 20 km, 40 km and 60 km at the downstream. The resulting flood plain was also mapped using HEC-GeoRas to show the extent of flooding.展开更多
One only needs to study the soil and geologic history and location of the ancient Mississippi and Ohio Rivers to understand why Len Small levee if patched will continue to fail. Much of Dogtooth Bend located in Alexan...One only needs to study the soil and geologic history and location of the ancient Mississippi and Ohio Rivers to understand why Len Small levee if patched will continue to fail. Much of Dogtooth Bend located in Alexander County, Illinois was originally in the ancient Ohio River valley (Figure 1) alluvial sediments north and east of the confluence with the ancient Mississippi River. The ancient Ohio River valley soils underlain by alluvial sediments and have been easily eroded by the re-aligning modern Mississippi River which now travels through the bedrock controlled Thebes Gap (Figure 2) and into the Ancient Ohio river valley. The primary objectives of this paper are: 1) to explain why Len Small levee, Alexander County, Illinois, US will continue to breach during major flooding events if repaired and 2) to develop a new combined raised causeway and levee system which will provide a Mississippi River floodwater bypass, be sustainable, encourage and fund a land use change, restore the degraded highway road beds, protect remaining Dogtooth Bend farmsteads and farmland that have not yet been degraded by past flooding events and provide floodwater storage during major flooding events at the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers.展开更多
Based on the analysis of hanging rivers' actuality in the lower Yellow River and researches related to the evaluation of dike breach risks,it is put forward that the influencing factors of dike beach risks in the ...Based on the analysis of hanging rivers' actuality in the lower Yellow River and researches related to the evaluation of dike breach risks,it is put forward that the influencing factors of dike beach risks in the lower Yellow River should involve four aspects,the flow and sediment movement,the regional crustal stability,the variation of river regime and the stability of river dikes.With this,the evaluation indexes system of dike breach risks is established,and with the support of geographic information systems technology,the model of multi-hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive judgment is applied to estimate the dike beach risks of the hanging rivers in the lower Yellow River under different flood conditions.The evaluation results of dike breach risks show the following distributing regularities of dike breach risks in the lower Yellow River:(1) Dike breach risks increase with the increase of the flood.(2) Dike breach risks decrease with the changes of river patterns along the channel.(3) There are great risks of dike breach in the wandering reaches,and it is relatively higher in the south bank than in the north in wandering reaches.(4) There is a higher dike breach risk in the north bank than in the south in winding reaches.Simultaneously,the evaluation results manifest that the evaluation indexes system established from the flow and sediment movement,the regional crustal stability,the variation of river regime and the stability of river dikes can represent the actual situation of the lower Yellow River more comprehensively.The application of multihierarchical fuzzy comprehensive judgment can preferably resolve the problem of hanging river dike breach,which has numerous influencing factors and complicated functionary mechanisms.The applications of geographic information systems technology with powerful spatial analysis functions make dike beach risks quantificationally displayed in different spatial positions,and reflect the differences of dike beach risks in different spatial positions of the channel in the lower Yellow River.展开更多
Farmers’contract breach behavior is cited as one of the major stumbling blocks in the sustainable expansion of contract farming in many developing countries.This paper examines farmers’contract breach decisions from...Farmers’contract breach behavior is cited as one of the major stumbling blocks in the sustainable expansion of contract farming in many developing countries.This paper examines farmers’contract breach decisions from the perspective of time preferences.The empirical analysis is based on a household survey and economic field experiments of poultry households participating in contract farming conducted in Jiangsu Province,China.A discounted utility model and a maximum likelihood technique are applied to estimate farmers’time preferences and the effect of time preferences on contract breach in the production and sales phases are explored with a bivariate probit model.The results show that,on average,the poultry farmers in the sample are generally present biased and impatient regarding future utility.The regression results show that farmers with a higher preference for the present and a higher discount rate are more likely to breach contracts,and time preferences play a greater role in the production phase than in the sales phase.When considering heterogeneity,specific investments and transaction costs promote contract stability only for farmers with a low degree of impatience.Moreover,compared with large-scale farmers,small-scale farmers’contract breach decisions are more significantly affected by their time preferences.These results have implications for contract stability policies and other issues that are impacted by the linking of behavioral preferences to agricultural decisions.展开更多
In the process of storm surge, the seawater often overflows and even destroys the seawall. The buildings near the shore are usually inundated by the seawater through the breach. However, at present, there is little st...In the process of storm surge, the seawater often overflows and even destroys the seawall. The buildings near the shore are usually inundated by the seawater through the breach. However, at present, there is little study focusing on the effects of buildings and breach on the seawall-break flows. In this paper, the lattice Boltzmann （LB） model with nine velocities in two dimensions （1920,9） for the shallow water equations is adopted to simulate the seawall-break flows. The flow patterns and water depth distributions for the seawall-break flows under various densities, layouts and shapes of buildings and different breach discharges, sizes and locations are investigated. It is found that when buildings with a high enough density are perpendicular to the main flow direction, an obvious backwater phenomenon appears near buildings while this phenomenon does not occur when buildings with the same density are paraJlel to the main flow direction. Moreover, it is observed that the occurrence of backwater phenomenon is independent of the building shape. As to the effects of breach on the seawall-break flows, it is found that only when the breach discharge is large enough or the breach size is small enough, the effects of asymmetric distribution of buildings on the seawail-break flows become important. The breach location only changes the flow pattern in the upstream area of the first building that seawater meets, but has little impact on the global water depth distribution.展开更多
In " leading enterprise + farmer" cooperation model,farmer's behavior of breaching contract exists generally. In this paper,from the angle of incomplete contract,the influencial factors of farmer breakin...In " leading enterprise + farmer" cooperation model,farmer's behavior of breaching contract exists generally. In this paper,from the angle of incomplete contract,the influencial factors of farmer breaking contract are analyzed. It is found that farmer sex,age,culture degree and farming period have obvious effects on the behavior of breaching contract. Under regulating effect of relationship quality,farmer assest specificity,exogenous uncertainty and endogenous uncertainty affect farmer's breaking behavior. That is,the higher the farmer assest specificity,the lower the farmer breaching tendency; higher exogenous uncertainty causes that farmer is easy to generate breaching behavior; higher endogenous uncertainty causes that farmer is also easy to take breaching behavior.展开更多
基金supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science,Innovation and Universities through the projects ACROPOLIS(Grant No.RTC2019-007343-5)and DOLMEN(Grant No.PID2021-122661OB-I00)the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness through the project“Severo Ochoa Programme for Centres of Excellence in R&D”(Grant No.CEX2018-000797-S).
文摘The classification of dams or off-stream reservoirs concerning potential hazards in the event of failure often involves the use of two-dimensional hydraulic models for computing floodwave effects.These models necessitate defining breach geometry and formation time,for which various parametric models have been proposed.These models yield different values for average breach width,time of failure,and consequently,peak flows,as demonstrated by several researchers.This study analyzed the effect of selecting a breach parametric model on the hydraulic variables,potential damages,and hazard classification of structures.Three common parametric models were compared using a set of synthetic cases and a real off-stream reservoir.Results indicated significant effects of model choice.Material erodibility exerted a significant impact,surpassing that of failure mode.Other factors,such as the Manning coefficient,significantly affected the results.Utilizing an inadequate model or lacking information on dike material can lead to overly conservative or underestimated outcomes,thereby affecting hazard classification.
文摘In this in-depth exploration, I delve into the complex implications and costs of cybersecurity breaches. Venturing beyond just the immediate repercussions, the research unearths both the overt and concealed long-term consequences that businesses encounter. This study integrates findings from various research, including quantitative reports, drawing upon real-world incidents faced by both small and large enterprises. This investigation emphasizes the profound intangible costs, such as trade name devaluation and potential damage to brand reputation, which can persist long after the breach. By collating insights from industry experts and a myriad of research, the study provides a comprehensive perspective on the profound, multi-dimensional impacts of cybersecurity incidents. The overarching aim is to underscore the often-underestimated scope and depth of these breaches, emphasizing the entire timeline post-incident and the urgent need for fortified preventative and reactive measures in the digital domain.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.51779153,51539006,and 51509156)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.BK20161121)
文摘A simplified physically-based model was developed to simulate the breaching process of the Gouhou concrete-faced rockfill dam （CFRD）, which is the only breach case of a high CFRD in the world. Considering the dam height, a hydraulic method was chosen to simulate the initial scour position on the downstream slope, with the steepening of the downstream slope taken into account; a headcut erosion formula was adopted to simulate the backward erosion as well. The moment equilibrium method was utilized to calculate the ultimate length of a concrete slab under its self-weight and water loads. The calculated results of the Gouhou CFRD breach case show that the proposed model provides reasonable peak breach flow, final breach width, and failure time, with relative errors less than 15% as compared with the measured data. Sensitivity studies show that the outputs of the proposed model are more or less sensitive to different parameters. Three typical parametric models were compared with the proposed model, and the comparison demonstrates that the proposed physically-based breach model performs better and provides more detailed results than the parametric models.
文摘Every year, a number of breach failures occur in Irrigation Canals in Sindh. Those failures cause displacement of thousands of people, destruction of properties, land, and damage to costly crops that worth millions Rupees. In addition to that, breach failures also can cause water shortages when the failure occurs during the peak demand period. There are various causes of embankment failures which include overtopping, internal erosion, structural defects and piping. State of art for breach failures is presented in this paper and suggestions for prediction of breaches in context to canals in Sindh are discussed. Seepage and slope stability analyses are recommended for a long-term breach predictions.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2017YFC0404805)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.51779153 and 51539006)+1 种基金the Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund(Grant No.Y717012)the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province(Grant No.BK20161121)
文摘Based on model tests of earthen dam breach due to piping failure, a numerical model was developed.A key difference from previous research is the assumption that the cross-section of the pipe channel is an arch, with a rectangle at the bottom and a semicircle at the top before the collapse of the pipe roof, rather than a rectangular or circular cross-section.A shear stress-based erosion rate formula was utilized, and the arched pipe tunnel was assumed to enlarge along its length and width until the overlying soil could no longer maintain stability.Orifice flow and open channel flow were adopted to calculate the breach flow discharge for pressure and free surface flows, respectively.The collapse of the pipe roof was determined by comparing the weight of the overlying soil and the cohesion of the soil on the two sidewalls of the pipe.After the collapse, overtopping failure dominated, and the limit equilibrium method was adopted to estimate the stability of the breach slope when the water flow overtopped.In addition, incomplete and base erosion, as well as one-and two-sided breaches were taken into account.The USDAARS-HERU model test P1, with detailed measured data, was used as a case study, and two artificially filled earthen dam failure cases were studied to verify the model.Feedback analysis demonstrates that the proposed model can provide satisfactory results for modeling the breach flow discharge and breach development process.Sensitivity analysis shows that the soil erodibility and initial piping position significantly affect the prediction of the breach flow discharge.Furthermore, a comparison with a well-known numerical model shows that the proposed model performs better than the NWS BREACH model.
文摘The main objective of the present study is to introduce new empirical equations for the determination of breach geometrical dimensions and peak outflow discharge(Q_(p)).Therefore,a historic failure database of 109 embankments was collected and examined.The most important factors that affect the breach evolution,including grading size,hydraulic,and outflow characteristics are also studied.Some of the parameters used for the determination of Q_(p) and average breach width(Bave)have a significant effect on the erosion process,but they are less reflected in the technical literature.To study the behavior of noncohesive soils during overtopping,15 physical tests were performed at the laboratory,and the effects of interfering parameters were investigated.The experimental output hydrograph was used to simulate the hydrographs resulting from the failure of real dams,and recent artificial intelligence techniques along with linear and nonlinear regression models were employed.The area-time analysis of the laboratory hydrographs shows that the soil particle size and the characteristics of reservoir-basin significantly affect the rate of breach formation and outflow discharge.New relationships are introduced,based on the breach characteristics,by a combination of historical and experimental data,as well as case studies conducted on the hypothetical failure of 10 operational dams.The mathematical model is also used to simulate the process of breach evaluation.Based on statistical indices,comparison of the results,and sensitivity analysis,the developed equations can better express the susceptibility of materials to erosion and their application can minimize downstream vulnerabilities.
文摘Whenever levees on the Ohio or Mississippi rivers are breached, there are soil damages in the flooded areas that impact agricultural management capacities and crop productivity. Floodwaters coat the entire flooded land surface with sediments which include a variety of pollutants, nutrients and contaminants. The nature of the sediments in floodwaters varies with the topographical and land use characteristics of the watershed. The soil types, hydro-geologic features, volume of flow, time of year, agricultural use of fertilizers, pesticides, and other chemicals as well as upstream point sources such as sewage treatment plants, storm sewer drainage and other urban land uses will affect the extent of the contamination and fine scale remediation needed. Preliminary characterization and measurement of soils and sediment deposit at three locations that experienced recent natural and man induced levee breaches are analyzed to identify patterns of soil and crop damage. These findings provide guidance to the restoration of craters, gullies, land scoured areas and contaminated sediment depositional sites with a goal to improve decision-making, risk analysis and remedial effectiveness. Recommendations include： （1） improve characterization and measurement of eroded soils and distribution of sediment contaminants after levee breaching; （2） assess contamination effects on soil productivity and long term agricultural production in order to understand the impacts of flooding on agricultural soils; （3） evaluate reconstruction investments needed to repair levees based on return of the land to productivity and increased landscape resilience by reducing vulnerability to future flooding and levee breaching stress.
文摘Ethiopia has been booming with active construction of dams within the past few decades for different infrastructural needs, but has never experienced demolition or failure of dams in its history;hence little attention is being given to possible breach scenarios of dams and the resulting floodings. This paper makes analysis of the possible breach of kesem dam and the resulting flood inundation. In this study, the dam has been checked for both overtopping and piping failure modes using one dimensional river analysis model called HEC-RAS. Empirical equations were used to predict dam breach parameters of the two failure modes for use in this model. PMF inflow with a peak 9237.77 m3/s is used as an input to the reservoir to check if overtopping failure was possible. The spill way has proven to have adequate capacity for the flood due to the PMF. Therefore, breaching of the embankment was not possible. Piping failure was also simulated in HEC-RAS and the resulting breach due to piping failure, was analyzed and flood hydrograph was obtained at different cross sections along the river. These are flood hydrographs at 20 km, 40 km and 60 km at the downstream. The resulting flood plain was also mapped using HEC-GeoRas to show the extent of flooding.
文摘One only needs to study the soil and geologic history and location of the ancient Mississippi and Ohio Rivers to understand why Len Small levee if patched will continue to fail. Much of Dogtooth Bend located in Alexander County, Illinois was originally in the ancient Ohio River valley (Figure 1) alluvial sediments north and east of the confluence with the ancient Mississippi River. The ancient Ohio River valley soils underlain by alluvial sediments and have been easily eroded by the re-aligning modern Mississippi River which now travels through the bedrock controlled Thebes Gap (Figure 2) and into the Ancient Ohio river valley. The primary objectives of this paper are: 1) to explain why Len Small levee, Alexander County, Illinois, US will continue to breach during major flooding events if repaired and 2) to develop a new combined raised causeway and levee system which will provide a Mississippi River floodwater bypass, be sustainable, encourage and fund a land use change, restore the degraded highway road beds, protect remaining Dogtooth Bend farmsteads and farmland that have not yet been degraded by past flooding events and provide floodwater storage during major flooding events at the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers.
基金The State Science Research Plan (Grant no.96-920-09-01)
文摘Based on the analysis of hanging rivers' actuality in the lower Yellow River and researches related to the evaluation of dike breach risks,it is put forward that the influencing factors of dike beach risks in the lower Yellow River should involve four aspects,the flow and sediment movement,the regional crustal stability,the variation of river regime and the stability of river dikes.With this,the evaluation indexes system of dike breach risks is established,and with the support of geographic information systems technology,the model of multi-hierarchical fuzzy comprehensive judgment is applied to estimate the dike beach risks of the hanging rivers in the lower Yellow River under different flood conditions.The evaluation results of dike breach risks show the following distributing regularities of dike breach risks in the lower Yellow River:(1) Dike breach risks increase with the increase of the flood.(2) Dike breach risks decrease with the changes of river patterns along the channel.(3) There are great risks of dike breach in the wandering reaches,and it is relatively higher in the south bank than in the north in wandering reaches.(4) There is a higher dike breach risk in the north bank than in the south in winding reaches.Simultaneously,the evaluation results manifest that the evaluation indexes system established from the flow and sediment movement,the regional crustal stability,the variation of river regime and the stability of river dikes can represent the actual situation of the lower Yellow River more comprehensively.The application of multihierarchical fuzzy comprehensive judgment can preferably resolve the problem of hanging river dike breach,which has numerous influencing factors and complicated functionary mechanisms.The applications of geographic information systems technology with powerful spatial analysis functions make dike beach risks quantificationally displayed in different spatial positions,and reflect the differences of dike beach risks in different spatial positions of the channel in the lower Yellow River.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72003082 and 71573130)the Project of Philosophy and Social Science Research in Colleges and Universities in Jiangsu Province of China(2020SJA1015)+1 种基金the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions,China(PAPD)the China Center for Food Security Studies,Nanjing Agricultural University,China。
文摘Farmers’contract breach behavior is cited as one of the major stumbling blocks in the sustainable expansion of contract farming in many developing countries.This paper examines farmers’contract breach decisions from the perspective of time preferences.The empirical analysis is based on a household survey and economic field experiments of poultry households participating in contract farming conducted in Jiangsu Province,China.A discounted utility model and a maximum likelihood technique are applied to estimate farmers’time preferences and the effect of time preferences on contract breach in the production and sales phases are explored with a bivariate probit model.The results show that,on average,the poultry farmers in the sample are generally present biased and impatient regarding future utility.The regression results show that farmers with a higher preference for the present and a higher discount rate are more likely to breach contracts,and time preferences play a greater role in the production phase than in the sales phase.When considering heterogeneity,specific investments and transaction costs promote contract stability only for farmers with a low degree of impatience.Moreover,compared with large-scale farmers,small-scale farmers’contract breach decisions are more significantly affected by their time preferences.These results have implications for contract stability policies and other issues that are impacted by the linking of behavioral preferences to agricultural decisions.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.11502124the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province under Grant No.LQ16A020001+2 种基金the Scientific Research Fund of Zhejiang Provincial Education Department under Grant No.Y201533808the Natural Science Foundation of Ningbo under Grant No.2016A610075sponsored by K.C.Wong Magna Fund in Ningbo University
文摘In the process of storm surge, the seawater often overflows and even destroys the seawall. The buildings near the shore are usually inundated by the seawater through the breach. However, at present, there is little study focusing on the effects of buildings and breach on the seawall-break flows. In this paper, the lattice Boltzmann （LB） model with nine velocities in two dimensions （1920,9） for the shallow water equations is adopted to simulate the seawall-break flows. The flow patterns and water depth distributions for the seawall-break flows under various densities, layouts and shapes of buildings and different breach discharges, sizes and locations are investigated. It is found that when buildings with a high enough density are perpendicular to the main flow direction, an obvious backwater phenomenon appears near buildings while this phenomenon does not occur when buildings with the same density are paraJlel to the main flow direction. Moreover, it is observed that the occurrence of backwater phenomenon is independent of the building shape. As to the effects of breach on the seawall-break flows, it is found that only when the breach discharge is large enough or the breach size is small enough, the effects of asymmetric distribution of buildings on the seawail-break flows become important. The breach location only changes the flow pattern in the upstream area of the first building that seawater meets, but has little impact on the global water depth distribution.
基金Supported by Natural Science Research Project Fund,Ministry of Education(71573100)
文摘In " leading enterprise + farmer" cooperation model,farmer's behavior of breaching contract exists generally. In this paper,from the angle of incomplete contract,the influencial factors of farmer breaking contract are analyzed. It is found that farmer sex,age,culture degree and farming period have obvious effects on the behavior of breaching contract. Under regulating effect of relationship quality,farmer assest specificity,exogenous uncertainty and endogenous uncertainty affect farmer's breaking behavior. That is,the higher the farmer assest specificity,the lower the farmer breaching tendency; higher exogenous uncertainty causes that farmer is easy to generate breaching behavior; higher endogenous uncertainty causes that farmer is also easy to take breaching behavior.
