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基于BN-BRANN的原油管道泄漏爆炸风险演化及防控研究
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作者 张新梅 刘晓爽 +2 位作者 邱德华 张傲 陈晨 《中国安全生产科学技术》 北大核心 2026年第3期147-155,共9页
为定量刻画长输原油管道泄漏爆炸风险非线性及多因素耦合的动态演化路径,提出1种融合贝叶斯网络(BN)与贝叶斯正则化人工神经网络(BRANN)的风险演化分析方法。通过风险因素及事故致因机理分析构建基于BN的事故演化模型,以此为基础建立以... 为定量刻画长输原油管道泄漏爆炸风险非线性及多因素耦合的动态演化路径,提出1种融合贝叶斯网络(BN)与贝叶斯正则化人工神经网络(BRANN)的风险演化分析方法。通过风险因素及事故致因机理分析构建基于BN的事故演化模型,以此为基础建立以风险因素概率为输入的BRANN预测模型。结合敏感性分析与网络权重解析,从单因素与多因素耦合双维度评估风险因素重要性,识别事故升级的关键控制节点及风险演化链;从屏障理论及纵深防御视角,构建基于系统风险演化链的层级化风险防控框架,并将其应用于山东省青岛市“11·22”中石化东黄输油管道泄漏爆炸特别重大事故中。研究结果表明:BN-BRANN模型识别出的关键风险传播路径与事故调查报告的相关结论具有良好的吻合度。研究结果可为管道本质安全水平提升提供系统性参考方案。 展开更多
关键词 长输原油管道 泄漏爆炸 贝叶斯网络 贝叶斯正则化人工神经网络 风险传播路径 层级防控
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Classification and Categorization of COVID-19 Outbreak in Pakistan 被引量:1
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作者 Amber Ayoub Kainaat Mahboob +4 位作者 Abdul Rehman Javed Muhammad Rizwan Thippa Reddy Gadekallu Mustufa Haider Abidi Mohammed Alkahtani 《Computers, Materials & Continua》 SCIE EI 2021年第10期1253-1269,共17页
Coronavirus is a potentially fatal disease that normally occurs in mammals and birds.Generally,in humans,the virus spreads through aerial droplets of any type of fluid secreted from the body of an infected person.Coro... Coronavirus is a potentially fatal disease that normally occurs in mammals and birds.Generally,in humans,the virus spreads through aerial droplets of any type of fluid secreted from the body of an infected person.Coronavirus is a family of viruses that is more lethal than other unpremeditated viruses.In December 2019,a new variant,i.e.,a novel coronavirus(COVID-19)developed in Wuhan province,China.Since January 23,2020,the number of infected individuals has increased rapidly,affecting the health and economies of many countries,including Pakistan.The objective of this research is to provide a system to classify and categorize the COVID-19 outbreak in Pakistan based on the data collected every day from different regions of Pakistan.This research also compares the performance of machine learning classifiers(i.e.,Decision Tree(DT),Naive Bayes(NB),Support Vector Machine,and Logistic Regression)on the COVID-19 dataset collected in Pakistan.According to the experimental results,DT and NB classifiers outperformed the other classifiers.In addition,the classified data is categorized by implementing a Bayesian Regularization Artificial Neural Network(BRANN)classifier.The results demonstrate that the BRANN classifier outperforms state-of-the-art classifiers. 展开更多
关键词 COVID-19 PANDEMIC neural network brann machine learning
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