This paper investigates the reliability of internal marine combustion engines using an integrated approach that combines Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)and Bayesian Networks(BN).FTA provides a structured,top-down method for ...This paper investigates the reliability of internal marine combustion engines using an integrated approach that combines Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)and Bayesian Networks(BN).FTA provides a structured,top-down method for identifying critical failure modes and their root causes,while BN introduces flexibility in probabilistic reasoning,enabling dynamic updates based on new evidence.This dual methodology overcomes the limitations of static FTA models,offering a comprehensive framework for system reliability analysis.Critical failures,including External Leakage(ELU),Failure to Start(FTS),and Overheating(OHE),were identified as key risks.By incorporating redundancy into high-risk components such as pumps and batteries,the likelihood of these failures was significantly reduced.For instance,redundant pumps reduced the probability of ELU by 31.88%,while additional batteries decreased the occurrence of FTS by 36.45%.The results underscore the practical benefits of combining FTA and BN for enhancing system reliability,particularly in maritime applications where operational safety and efficiency are critical.This research provides valuable insights for maintenance planning and highlights the importance of redundancy in critical systems,especially as the industry transitions toward more autonomous vessels.展开更多
The reliable operation of power grid secondary equipment is an important guarantee for the safety and stability of the power system.However,various defects could be produced in the secondary equipment during longtermo...The reliable operation of power grid secondary equipment is an important guarantee for the safety and stability of the power system.However,various defects could be produced in the secondary equipment during longtermoperation.The complex relationship between the defect phenomenon andmulti-layer causes and the probabilistic influence of secondary equipment cannot be described through knowledge extraction and fusion technology by existing methods,which limits the real-time and accuracy of defect identification.Therefore,a defect recognition method based on the Bayesian network and knowledge graph fusion is proposed.The defect data of secondary equipment is transformed into the structured knowledge graph through knowledge extraction and fusion technology.The knowledge graph of power grid secondary equipment is mapped to the Bayesian network framework,combined with historical defect data,and introduced Noisy-OR nodes.The prior and conditional probabilities of the Bayesian network are then reasonably assigned to build a model that reflects the probability dependence between defect phenomena and potential causes in power grid secondary equipment.Defect identification of power grid secondary equipment is achieved by defect subgraph search based on the knowledge graph,and defect inference based on the Bayesian network.Practical application cases prove this method’s effectiveness in identifying secondary equipment defect causes,improving identification accuracy and efficiency.展开更多
Rock fragmentation is an important indicator for assessing the quality of blasting operations.However,accurate prediction of rock fragmentation after blasting is challenging due to the complicated blasting parameters ...Rock fragmentation is an important indicator for assessing the quality of blasting operations.However,accurate prediction of rock fragmentation after blasting is challenging due to the complicated blasting parameters and rock properties.For this reason,optimized by the Bayesian optimization algorithm(BOA),four hybrid machine learning models,including random forest,adaptive boosting,gradient boosting,and extremely randomized trees,were developed in this study.A total of 102 data sets with seven input parameters(spacing-to-burden ratio,hole depth-to-burden ratio,burden-to-hole diameter ratio,stemming length-to-burden ratio,powder factor,in situ block size,and elastic modulus)and one output parameter(rock fragment mean size,X_(50))were adopted to train and validate the predictive models.The root mean square error(RMSE),the mean absolute error(MAE),and the coefficient of determination(R^(2))were used as the evaluation metrics.The evaluation results demonstrated that the hybrid models showed superior performance than the standalone models.The hybrid model consisting of gradient boosting and BOA(GBoost-BOA)achieved the best prediction results compared with the other hybrid models,with the highest R^(2)value of 0.96 and the smallest values of RMSE and MAE of 0.03 and 0.02,respectively.Furthermore,sensitivity analysis was carried out to study the effects of input variables on rock fragmentation.In situ block size(XB),elastic modulus(E),and stemming length-to-burden ratio(T/B)were set as the main influencing factors.The proposed hybrid model provided a reliable prediction result and thus could be considered an alternative approach for rock fragment prediction in mining engineering.展开更多
This study investigates photonuclear reaction(γ,n)cross-sections using Bayesian neural network(BNN)analysis.After determining the optimal network architecture,which features two hidden layers,each with 50 hidden node...This study investigates photonuclear reaction(γ,n)cross-sections using Bayesian neural network(BNN)analysis.After determining the optimal network architecture,which features two hidden layers,each with 50 hidden nodes,training was conducted for 30,000 iterations to ensure comprehensive data capture.By analyzing the distribution of absolute errors positively correlated with the cross-section for the isotope 159Tb,as well as the relative errors unrelated to the cross-section,we confirmed that the network effectively captured the data features without overfitting.Comparison with the TENDL-2021 Database demonstrated the BNN's reliability in fitting photonuclear cross-sections with lower average errors.The predictions for nuclei with single and double giant dipole resonance peak cross-sections,the accurate determination of the photoneutron reaction threshold in the low-energy region,and the precise description of trends in the high-energy cross-sections further demonstrate the network's generalization ability on the validation set.This can be attributed to the consistency of the training data.By using consistent training sets from different laboratories,Bayesian neural networks can predict nearby unknown cross-sections based on existing laboratory data,thereby estimating the potential differences between other laboratories'existing data and their own measurement results.Experimental measurements of photonuclear reactions on the newly constructed SLEGS beamline will contribute to clarifying the differences in cross-sections within the existing data.展开更多
Bayesian-optimized lithology identification has important basic geological research significance and engineering application value,and this paper proposes a Bayesian-optimized lithology identification method based on ...Bayesian-optimized lithology identification has important basic geological research significance and engineering application value,and this paper proposes a Bayesian-optimized lithology identification method based on machine learning of rock visible and near-infrared spectral data.First,the rock spectral data are preprocessed using Savitzky-Golay(SG)smoothing to remove the noise of the spectral data;then,the preprocessed rock spectral data are downscaled using Principal Component Analysis(PCA)to reduce the redundancy of the data,optimize the effective discriminative information,and obtain the rock spectral features;finally,a Bayesian-optimized lithology identification model is established based on rock spectral features,optimize the model hyperparameters using Bayesian optimization(BO)algorithm to avoid the combination of hyperparameters falling into the local optimal solution,and output the predicted type of rock,so as to realize the Bayesian-optimized lithology identification.In addition,this paper conducts comparative analysis on models based on Artificial Neural Network(ANN)/Random Forest(RF),dimensionality reduction/full band,and optimization algorithms.It uses the confusion matrix,accuracy,Precison(P),Recall(R)and F_(1)values(F_(1))as the evaluation indexes of model accuracy.The results indicate that the lithology identification model optimized by the BO-ANN after dimensionality reduction achieves an accuracy of up to 99.80%,up to 99.79%and up to 99.79%.Compared with the BO-RF model,it has higher identification accuracy and better stability for each type of rock identification.The experiments and reliability analysis show that the Bayesian-optimized lithology identification method proposed in this paper has good robustness and generalization performance,which is of great significance for realizing fast,accurate and Bayesian-optimized lithology identification in tunnel site.展开更多
To quantify the seismic resilience of buildings,a method for evaluating functional loss from the component level to the overall building is proposed,and the dual-parameter seismic resilience assessment method based on...To quantify the seismic resilience of buildings,a method for evaluating functional loss from the component level to the overall building is proposed,and the dual-parameter seismic resilience assessment method based on postearthquake loss and recovery time is improved.A threelevel function tree model is established,which can consider the dynamic changes in weight coefficients of different category of components relative to their functional losses.Bayesian networks are utilized to quantify the impact of weather conditions,construction technology levels,and worker skill levels on component repair time.A method for determining the real-time functional recovery curve of buildings based on the component repair process is proposed.Taking a three-story teaching building as an example,the seismic resilience indices under basic earthquakes and rare earthquakes are calculated.The results show that the seismic resilience grade of the teaching building is comprehensively judged as GradeⅢ,and its resilience grade is more significantly affected by postearthquake loss.The proposed method can be used to predict the seismic resilience of buildings prior to earthquakes,identify weak components within buildings,and provide guidance for taking measures to enhance the seismic resilience of buildings.展开更多
In this paper,an advanced satellite navigation filter design,referred to as the Variational Bayesian Maximum Correntropy Extended Kalman Filter(VBMCEKF),is introduced to enhance robustness and adaptability in scenario...In this paper,an advanced satellite navigation filter design,referred to as the Variational Bayesian Maximum Correntropy Extended Kalman Filter(VBMCEKF),is introduced to enhance robustness and adaptability in scenarios with non-Gaussian noise and heavy-tailed outliers.The proposed design modifies the extended Kalman filter(EKF)for the global navigation satellite system(GNSS),integrating the maximum correntropy criterion(MCC)and the variational Bayesian(VB)method.This adaptive algorithm effectively reduces non-line-of-sight(NLOS)reception contamination and improves estimation accuracy,particularly in time-varying GNSS measurements.Experimental results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms conventional approaches in estimation accuracy under heavy-tailed outliers and non-Gaussian noise.By combining MCC with VB approximation for real-time noise covariance estimation using fixed-point iteration,the VBMCEKF achieves superior filtering performance in challenging GNSS conditions.The method’s adaptability and precision make it ideal for improving satellite navigation performance in stochastic environments.展开更多
A personalized outfit recommendation has emerged as a hot research topic in the fashion domain.However,existing recommendations do not fully exploit user style preferences.Typically,users prefer particular styles such...A personalized outfit recommendation has emerged as a hot research topic in the fashion domain.However,existing recommendations do not fully exploit user style preferences.Typically,users prefer particular styles such as casual and athletic styles,and consider attributes like color and texture when selecting outfits.To achieve personalized outfit recommendations in line with user style preferences,this paper proposes a personal style guided outfit recommendation with multi-modal fashion compatibility modeling,termed as PSGNet.Firstly,a style classifier is designed to categorize fashion images of various clothing types and attributes into distinct style categories.Secondly,a personal style prediction module extracts user style preferences by analyzing historical data.Then,to address the limitations of single-modal representations and enhance fashion compatibility,both fashion images and text data are leveraged to extract multi-modal features.Finally,PSGNet integrates these components through Bayesian personalized ranking(BPR)to unify the personal style and fashion compatibility,where the former is used as personal style features and guides the output of the personalized outfit recommendation tailored to the target user.Extensive experiments on large-scale datasets demonstrate that the proposed model is efficient on the personalized outfit recommendation.展开更多
The Pamir Plateau,at the northwestern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,is a key region for investigating continental collision and plateau uplifting.To probe its deep structure,we collected seismic data from 263 stations...The Pamir Plateau,at the northwestern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,is a key region for investigating continental collision and plateau uplifting.To probe its deep structure,we collected seismic data from 263 stations across 11 research projects.We applied cross-correlation to noise data and extracted surface wave dispersion data from cross-correlation functions.The extracted dispersion data were subsequently inverted using a 3-D transdimensional Bayesian inversion method(rj-3 DMcMC).The inversion result reveals several crustal low-velocity zones(LVZs).Their formation is likely related to crustal thickening,the exposure of gneiss domes,and thicker sedimentary sequences compared to surrounding areas.In the lower crust and upper mantle,the LVZs in southern Pamir and southeastern Karakoram evolve into high-velocity zones,which expand northeastward with increasing depth.This suggests northward underthrusting of the Indian Plate.We also analyzed the Moho using both the standard deviation of S-wave velocity and the S-wave velocity structure.Results show that significant variations in velocity standard deviation reliably delineate the Moho interface.展开更多
Cognitive bias,stemming from electronic measurement error and variability in human perception,exists in cognitive electronic warfare and affects the outcomes of conflicts.In this paper,the dynamic game approach is emp...Cognitive bias,stemming from electronic measurement error and variability in human perception,exists in cognitive electronic warfare and affects the outcomes of conflicts.In this paper,the dynamic game approach is employed to develop a model for cognitive bias induced by incomplete information and measurement errors in cognitive radar countermeasures.The payoffs for both parties are calculated using the radar's anti-jamming strategy matrix A and the jammer's jamming strategy matrix B.With perfect Bayesian equilibrium,a dynamic radar countermeasure model is established,and the impact of cognitive bias is analyzed.Drawing inspiration from the cognitive bias analysis method used in stock market trading,a cognitive bias model for cognitive radar countermeasures is introduced,and its correctness is mathematically proved.A gaming scenario involving the AN/SPY-1 radar and a smart jammer is set up to analyze the influence of cognitive bias on game outcomes.Simulation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
Engineering tests can yield inaccurate data due to instrument errors,human factors,and environmental interference,introducing uncertainty in numerical model updating.This study employs the probability-box(p-box)method...Engineering tests can yield inaccurate data due to instrument errors,human factors,and environmental interference,introducing uncertainty in numerical model updating.This study employs the probability-box(p-box)method for representing observational uncertainty and develops a two-step approximate Bayesian computation(ABC)framework using time-series data.Within the ABC framework,Euclidean and Bhattacharyya distances are employed as uncertainty quantification metrics to delineate approximate likelihood functions in the initial and subsequent steps,respectively.A novel variational Bayesian Monte Carlo method is introduced to efficiently apply the ABC framework amidst observational uncertainty,resulting in rapid convergence and accurate parameter estimation with minimal iterations.The efficacy of the proposed updating strategy is validated by its application to a shear frame model excited by seismic wave and an aviation pump force sensor for thermal output analysis.The results affirm the efficiency,robustness,and practical applicability of the proposed method.展开更多
The total nitrogen(TN)is a major factor contributing to eutrophication and is a crucial parameter in assessing surface water quality.Accurate and rapid methods are crucial for determining the TN content in water.Herei...The total nitrogen(TN)is a major factor contributing to eutrophication and is a crucial parameter in assessing surface water quality.Accurate and rapid methods are crucial for determining the TN content in water.Herein,a fast,highly sensitive,and pollution-free approach is proposed,which combines ultraviolet(UV)absorption spectroscopy with Bayesian optimized least squares support vector machine(LSSVM)for detecting TN content in water.Water samples collected from sampling points near the Yangtze River basin in Chongqing of China were analyzed using national standard methods to measure TN content as reference values.The prediction of TN content in water was achieved by integrating the UV absorption spectra of water samples with LSSVM.To make the model quickly and accurately select the optimal parameters to improve the accuracy of the prediction model,the Bayesian optimization(BO)algorithm was used to optimize the parameters of the LSSVM.Results show that the prediction model performs well in predicting TN concentration,with a high coefficient of prediction determination(R^(2)=0.9413)and a low root mean square error of prediction(RMSE=0.0779 mg/L).Comparative analysis with previous studies indicates that the model used in this paper achieves lower prediction errors and superior predictive performance.展开更多
Recently,machine learning has become a powerful tool for predicting nuclear charge radius RC,providing novel insights into complex physical phenomena.This study employs a continuous Bayesian probability(CBP)estimator ...Recently,machine learning has become a powerful tool for predicting nuclear charge radius RC,providing novel insights into complex physical phenomena.This study employs a continuous Bayesian probability(CBP)estimator and Bayesian model averaging(BMA)to optimize the predictions of RCfrom sophisticated theoretical models.The CBP estimator treats the residual between the theoretical and experimental values of RCas a continuous variable and derives its posterior probability density function(PDF)from Bayesian theory.The BMA method assigns weights to models based on their predictive performance for benchmark nuclei,thereby accounting for the unique strengths of each model.In global optimization,the CBP estimator improved the predictive accuracy of the three theoretical models by approximately 60%.The extrapolation analyses consistently achieved an improvement rate of approximately 45%,demonstrating the robustness of the CBP estimator.Furthermore,the combination of the CBP and BMA methods reduces the standard deviation to below 0.02 fm,effectively reproducing the pronounced shell effects on RCof the Ca and Sr isotope chains.The studies in this paper propose an efficient method to accurately describe RCof unknown nuclei,with potential applications in research on other nuclear properties.展开更多
The effective and timely diagnosis and treatment of ocular diseases are key to the rapid recovery of patients.Today,the mass disease that needs attention in this context is cataracts.Although deep learning has signifi...The effective and timely diagnosis and treatment of ocular diseases are key to the rapid recovery of patients.Today,the mass disease that needs attention in this context is cataracts.Although deep learning has significantly advanced the analysis of ocular disease images,there is a need for a probabilistic model to generate the distributions of potential outcomes and thusmake decisions related to uncertainty quantification.Therefore,this study implements a Bayesian Convolutional Neural Networks(BCNN)model for predicting cataracts by assigning probability values to the predictions.It prepares convolutional neural network(CNN)and BCNN models.The proposed BCNN model is CNN-based in which reparameterization is in the first and last layers of the CNN model.This study then trains them on a dataset of cataract images filtered from the ocular disease fundus images fromKaggle.The deep CNN model has an accuracy of 95%,while the BCNN model has an accuracy of 93.75% along with information on uncertainty estimation of cataracts and normal eye conditions.When compared with other methods,the proposed work reveals that it can be a promising solution for cataract prediction with uncertainty estimation.展开更多
Integrating Bayesian Optimization with Volume of Fluid (VOF) simulations, this work aims to optimize the operational conditions and geometric parameters of T-junction microchannels for target droplet sizes. Bayesian O...Integrating Bayesian Optimization with Volume of Fluid (VOF) simulations, this work aims to optimize the operational conditions and geometric parameters of T-junction microchannels for target droplet sizes. Bayesian Optimization utilizes Gaussian Process (GP) as its core model and employs an adaptive search strategy to efficiently explore and identify optimal combinations of operational parameters within a limited parameter space, thereby enabling rapid optimization of the required parameters to achieve the target droplet size. Traditional methods typically rely on manually selecting a series of operational parameters and conducting multiple simulations to gradually approach the target droplet size. This process is time-consuming and prone to getting trapped in local optima. In contrast, Bayesian Optimization adaptively adjusts its search strategy, significantly reducing computational costs and effectively exploring global optima, thus greatly improving optimization efficiency. Additionally, the study investigates the impact of rectangular rib structures within the T-junction microchannel on droplet generation, revealing how the channel geometry influences droplet formation and size. After determining the target droplet size, we further applied Bayesian Optimization to refine the rib geometry. The integration of Bayesian Optimization with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) offers a promising tool and provides new insights into the optimal design of microfluidic devices.展开更多
基金supported by Istanbul Technical University(Project No.45698)supported through the“Young Researchers’Career Development Project-training of doctoral students”of the Croatian Science Foundation.
文摘This paper investigates the reliability of internal marine combustion engines using an integrated approach that combines Fault Tree Analysis(FTA)and Bayesian Networks(BN).FTA provides a structured,top-down method for identifying critical failure modes and their root causes,while BN introduces flexibility in probabilistic reasoning,enabling dynamic updates based on new evidence.This dual methodology overcomes the limitations of static FTA models,offering a comprehensive framework for system reliability analysis.Critical failures,including External Leakage(ELU),Failure to Start(FTS),and Overheating(OHE),were identified as key risks.By incorporating redundancy into high-risk components such as pumps and batteries,the likelihood of these failures was significantly reduced.For instance,redundant pumps reduced the probability of ELU by 31.88%,while additional batteries decreased the occurrence of FTS by 36.45%.The results underscore the practical benefits of combining FTA and BN for enhancing system reliability,particularly in maritime applications where operational safety and efficiency are critical.This research provides valuable insights for maintenance planning and highlights the importance of redundancy in critical systems,especially as the industry transitions toward more autonomous vessels.
基金supported by the State Grid Southwest Branch Project“Research on Defect Diagnosis and Early Warning Technology of Relay Protection and Safety Automation Devices Based on Multi-Source Heterogeneous Defect Data”.
文摘The reliable operation of power grid secondary equipment is an important guarantee for the safety and stability of the power system.However,various defects could be produced in the secondary equipment during longtermoperation.The complex relationship between the defect phenomenon andmulti-layer causes and the probabilistic influence of secondary equipment cannot be described through knowledge extraction and fusion technology by existing methods,which limits the real-time and accuracy of defect identification.Therefore,a defect recognition method based on the Bayesian network and knowledge graph fusion is proposed.The defect data of secondary equipment is transformed into the structured knowledge graph through knowledge extraction and fusion technology.The knowledge graph of power grid secondary equipment is mapped to the Bayesian network framework,combined with historical defect data,and introduced Noisy-OR nodes.The prior and conditional probabilities of the Bayesian network are then reasonably assigned to build a model that reflects the probability dependence between defect phenomena and potential causes in power grid secondary equipment.Defect identification of power grid secondary equipment is achieved by defect subgraph search based on the knowledge graph,and defect inference based on the Bayesian network.Practical application cases prove this method’s effectiveness in identifying secondary equipment defect causes,improving identification accuracy and efficiency.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,Grant/Award Number:52374153。
文摘Rock fragmentation is an important indicator for assessing the quality of blasting operations.However,accurate prediction of rock fragmentation after blasting is challenging due to the complicated blasting parameters and rock properties.For this reason,optimized by the Bayesian optimization algorithm(BOA),four hybrid machine learning models,including random forest,adaptive boosting,gradient boosting,and extremely randomized trees,were developed in this study.A total of 102 data sets with seven input parameters(spacing-to-burden ratio,hole depth-to-burden ratio,burden-to-hole diameter ratio,stemming length-to-burden ratio,powder factor,in situ block size,and elastic modulus)and one output parameter(rock fragment mean size,X_(50))were adopted to train and validate the predictive models.The root mean square error(RMSE),the mean absolute error(MAE),and the coefficient of determination(R^(2))were used as the evaluation metrics.The evaluation results demonstrated that the hybrid models showed superior performance than the standalone models.The hybrid model consisting of gradient boosting and BOA(GBoost-BOA)achieved the best prediction results compared with the other hybrid models,with the highest R^(2)value of 0.96 and the smallest values of RMSE and MAE of 0.03 and 0.02,respectively.Furthermore,sensitivity analysis was carried out to study the effects of input variables on rock fragmentation.In situ block size(XB),elastic modulus(E),and stemming length-to-burden ratio(T/B)were set as the main influencing factors.The proposed hybrid model provided a reliable prediction result and thus could be considered an alternative approach for rock fragment prediction in mining engineering.
基金supported by National key research and development program(No.2022YFA1602404)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.12388102,12275338,12005280)the Key Laboratory of Nuclear Data foundation(No.JCKY2022201C152)。
文摘This study investigates photonuclear reaction(γ,n)cross-sections using Bayesian neural network(BNN)analysis.After determining the optimal network architecture,which features two hidden layers,each with 50 hidden nodes,training was conducted for 30,000 iterations to ensure comprehensive data capture.By analyzing the distribution of absolute errors positively correlated with the cross-section for the isotope 159Tb,as well as the relative errors unrelated to the cross-section,we confirmed that the network effectively captured the data features without overfitting.Comparison with the TENDL-2021 Database demonstrated the BNN's reliability in fitting photonuclear cross-sections with lower average errors.The predictions for nuclei with single and double giant dipole resonance peak cross-sections,the accurate determination of the photoneutron reaction threshold in the low-energy region,and the precise description of trends in the high-energy cross-sections further demonstrate the network's generalization ability on the validation set.This can be attributed to the consistency of the training data.By using consistent training sets from different laboratories,Bayesian neural networks can predict nearby unknown cross-sections based on existing laboratory data,thereby estimating the potential differences between other laboratories'existing data and their own measurement results.Experimental measurements of photonuclear reactions on the newly constructed SLEGS beamline will contribute to clarifying the differences in cross-sections within the existing data.
基金support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos:52379103 and 52279103)the Natural Science Foundation of Shandong Province(Grant No:ZR2023YQ049).
文摘Bayesian-optimized lithology identification has important basic geological research significance and engineering application value,and this paper proposes a Bayesian-optimized lithology identification method based on machine learning of rock visible and near-infrared spectral data.First,the rock spectral data are preprocessed using Savitzky-Golay(SG)smoothing to remove the noise of the spectral data;then,the preprocessed rock spectral data are downscaled using Principal Component Analysis(PCA)to reduce the redundancy of the data,optimize the effective discriminative information,and obtain the rock spectral features;finally,a Bayesian-optimized lithology identification model is established based on rock spectral features,optimize the model hyperparameters using Bayesian optimization(BO)algorithm to avoid the combination of hyperparameters falling into the local optimal solution,and output the predicted type of rock,so as to realize the Bayesian-optimized lithology identification.In addition,this paper conducts comparative analysis on models based on Artificial Neural Network(ANN)/Random Forest(RF),dimensionality reduction/full band,and optimization algorithms.It uses the confusion matrix,accuracy,Precison(P),Recall(R)and F_(1)values(F_(1))as the evaluation indexes of model accuracy.The results indicate that the lithology identification model optimized by the BO-ANN after dimensionality reduction achieves an accuracy of up to 99.80%,up to 99.79%and up to 99.79%.Compared with the BO-RF model,it has higher identification accuracy and better stability for each type of rock identification.The experiments and reliability analysis show that the Bayesian-optimized lithology identification method proposed in this paper has good robustness and generalization performance,which is of great significance for realizing fast,accurate and Bayesian-optimized lithology identification in tunnel site.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2023YFC3805003)。
文摘To quantify the seismic resilience of buildings,a method for evaluating functional loss from the component level to the overall building is proposed,and the dual-parameter seismic resilience assessment method based on postearthquake loss and recovery time is improved.A threelevel function tree model is established,which can consider the dynamic changes in weight coefficients of different category of components relative to their functional losses.Bayesian networks are utilized to quantify the impact of weather conditions,construction technology levels,and worker skill levels on component repair time.A method for determining the real-time functional recovery curve of buildings based on the component repair process is proposed.Taking a three-story teaching building as an example,the seismic resilience indices under basic earthquakes and rare earthquakes are calculated.The results show that the seismic resilience grade of the teaching building is comprehensively judged as GradeⅢ,and its resilience grade is more significantly affected by postearthquake loss.The proposed method can be used to predict the seismic resilience of buildings prior to earthquakes,identify weak components within buildings,and provide guidance for taking measures to enhance the seismic resilience of buildings.
基金supported by the National Science and Technology Council,Taiwan under grants NSTC 111-2221-E-019-047 and NSTC 112-2221-E-019-030.
文摘In this paper,an advanced satellite navigation filter design,referred to as the Variational Bayesian Maximum Correntropy Extended Kalman Filter(VBMCEKF),is introduced to enhance robustness and adaptability in scenarios with non-Gaussian noise and heavy-tailed outliers.The proposed design modifies the extended Kalman filter(EKF)for the global navigation satellite system(GNSS),integrating the maximum correntropy criterion(MCC)and the variational Bayesian(VB)method.This adaptive algorithm effectively reduces non-line-of-sight(NLOS)reception contamination and improves estimation accuracy,particularly in time-varying GNSS measurements.Experimental results show that the proposed method significantly outperforms conventional approaches in estimation accuracy under heavy-tailed outliers and non-Gaussian noise.By combining MCC with VB approximation for real-time noise covariance estimation using fixed-point iteration,the VBMCEKF achieves superior filtering performance in challenging GNSS conditions.The method’s adaptability and precision make it ideal for improving satellite navigation performance in stochastic environments.
基金Shanghai Frontier Science Research Center for Modern Textiles,Donghua University,ChinaOpen Project of Henan Key Laboratory of Intelligent Manufacturing of Mechanical Equipment,Zhengzhou University of Light Industry,China(No.IM202303)National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2019YFB1706300)。
文摘A personalized outfit recommendation has emerged as a hot research topic in the fashion domain.However,existing recommendations do not fully exploit user style preferences.Typically,users prefer particular styles such as casual and athletic styles,and consider attributes like color and texture when selecting outfits.To achieve personalized outfit recommendations in line with user style preferences,this paper proposes a personal style guided outfit recommendation with multi-modal fashion compatibility modeling,termed as PSGNet.Firstly,a style classifier is designed to categorize fashion images of various clothing types and attributes into distinct style categories.Secondly,a personal style prediction module extracts user style preferences by analyzing historical data.Then,to address the limitations of single-modal representations and enhance fashion compatibility,both fashion images and text data are leveraged to extract multi-modal features.Finally,PSGNet integrates these components through Bayesian personalized ranking(BPR)to unify the personal style and fashion compatibility,where the former is used as personal style features and guides the output of the personalized outfit recommendation tailored to the target user.Extensive experiments on large-scale datasets demonstrate that the proposed model is efficient on the personalized outfit recommendation.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42174126)the Alliance of International Science Organizations(ANSO)Project(Grant No.ANSO-CR-PP2022-04)+1 种基金the Deep Earth Probe and Mineral Resources Exploration National Science and Technology Major Project(Grant Nos.2024ZD1002206,2024ZD1002201)Key R&D Program of Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region(Grant No.2024B03013-2)。
文摘The Pamir Plateau,at the northwestern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,is a key region for investigating continental collision and plateau uplifting.To probe its deep structure,we collected seismic data from 263 stations across 11 research projects.We applied cross-correlation to noise data and extracted surface wave dispersion data from cross-correlation functions.The extracted dispersion data were subsequently inverted using a 3-D transdimensional Bayesian inversion method(rj-3 DMcMC).The inversion result reveals several crustal low-velocity zones(LVZs).Their formation is likely related to crustal thickening,the exposure of gneiss domes,and thicker sedimentary sequences compared to surrounding areas.In the lower crust and upper mantle,the LVZs in southern Pamir and southeastern Karakoram evolve into high-velocity zones,which expand northeastward with increasing depth.This suggests northward underthrusting of the Indian Plate.We also analyzed the Moho using both the standard deviation of S-wave velocity and the S-wave velocity structure.Results show that significant variations in velocity standard deviation reliably delineate the Moho interface.
文摘Cognitive bias,stemming from electronic measurement error and variability in human perception,exists in cognitive electronic warfare and affects the outcomes of conflicts.In this paper,the dynamic game approach is employed to develop a model for cognitive bias induced by incomplete information and measurement errors in cognitive radar countermeasures.The payoffs for both parties are calculated using the radar's anti-jamming strategy matrix A and the jammer's jamming strategy matrix B.With perfect Bayesian equilibrium,a dynamic radar countermeasure model is established,and the impact of cognitive bias is analyzed.Drawing inspiration from the cognitive bias analysis method used in stock market trading,a cognitive bias model for cognitive radar countermeasures is introduced,and its correctness is mathematically proved.A gaming scenario involving the AN/SPY-1 radar and a smart jammer is set up to analyze the influence of cognitive bias on game outcomes.Simulation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.U23B20105).
文摘Engineering tests can yield inaccurate data due to instrument errors,human factors,and environmental interference,introducing uncertainty in numerical model updating.This study employs the probability-box(p-box)method for representing observational uncertainty and develops a two-step approximate Bayesian computation(ABC)framework using time-series data.Within the ABC framework,Euclidean and Bhattacharyya distances are employed as uncertainty quantification metrics to delineate approximate likelihood functions in the initial and subsequent steps,respectively.A novel variational Bayesian Monte Carlo method is introduced to efficiently apply the ABC framework amidst observational uncertainty,resulting in rapid convergence and accurate parameter estimation with minimal iterations.The efficacy of the proposed updating strategy is validated by its application to a shear frame model excited by seismic wave and an aviation pump force sensor for thermal output analysis.The results affirm the efficiency,robustness,and practical applicability of the proposed method.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.32171627 and 62105252)the Science and Technology Research Program of Chongqing Municipal Education Commission(No.KJZD-M202200602)the Hangzhou Science and Technology Development Project(No.202204T04).
文摘The total nitrogen(TN)is a major factor contributing to eutrophication and is a crucial parameter in assessing surface water quality.Accurate and rapid methods are crucial for determining the TN content in water.Herein,a fast,highly sensitive,and pollution-free approach is proposed,which combines ultraviolet(UV)absorption spectroscopy with Bayesian optimized least squares support vector machine(LSSVM)for detecting TN content in water.Water samples collected from sampling points near the Yangtze River basin in Chongqing of China were analyzed using national standard methods to measure TN content as reference values.The prediction of TN content in water was achieved by integrating the UV absorption spectra of water samples with LSSVM.To make the model quickly and accurately select the optimal parameters to improve the accuracy of the prediction model,the Bayesian optimization(BO)algorithm was used to optimize the parameters of the LSSVM.Results show that the prediction model performs well in predicting TN concentration,with a high coefficient of prediction determination(R^(2)=0.9413)and a low root mean square error of prediction(RMSE=0.0779 mg/L).Comparative analysis with previous studies indicates that the model used in this paper achieves lower prediction errors and superior predictive performance.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.12475135,12035011,and 12475119)the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation,China(No.ZR2020MA096)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.22CX03017A)。
文摘Recently,machine learning has become a powerful tool for predicting nuclear charge radius RC,providing novel insights into complex physical phenomena.This study employs a continuous Bayesian probability(CBP)estimator and Bayesian model averaging(BMA)to optimize the predictions of RCfrom sophisticated theoretical models.The CBP estimator treats the residual between the theoretical and experimental values of RCas a continuous variable and derives its posterior probability density function(PDF)from Bayesian theory.The BMA method assigns weights to models based on their predictive performance for benchmark nuclei,thereby accounting for the unique strengths of each model.In global optimization,the CBP estimator improved the predictive accuracy of the three theoretical models by approximately 60%.The extrapolation analyses consistently achieved an improvement rate of approximately 45%,demonstrating the robustness of the CBP estimator.Furthermore,the combination of the CBP and BMA methods reduces the standard deviation to below 0.02 fm,effectively reproducing the pronounced shell effects on RCof the Ca and Sr isotope chains.The studies in this paper propose an efficient method to accurately describe RCof unknown nuclei,with potential applications in research on other nuclear properties.
基金Saudi Arabia for funding this work through Small Research Group Project under Grant Number RGP.1/316/45.
文摘The effective and timely diagnosis and treatment of ocular diseases are key to the rapid recovery of patients.Today,the mass disease that needs attention in this context is cataracts.Although deep learning has significantly advanced the analysis of ocular disease images,there is a need for a probabilistic model to generate the distributions of potential outcomes and thusmake decisions related to uncertainty quantification.Therefore,this study implements a Bayesian Convolutional Neural Networks(BCNN)model for predicting cataracts by assigning probability values to the predictions.It prepares convolutional neural network(CNN)and BCNN models.The proposed BCNN model is CNN-based in which reparameterization is in the first and last layers of the CNN model.This study then trains them on a dataset of cataract images filtered from the ocular disease fundus images fromKaggle.The deep CNN model has an accuracy of 95%,while the BCNN model has an accuracy of 93.75% along with information on uncertainty estimation of cataracts and normal eye conditions.When compared with other methods,the proposed work reveals that it can be a promising solution for cataract prediction with uncertainty estimation.
基金support from National Key Research and Development Program of China(2023YFC3905400)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDA0490102)National Natural Science Foundation of China(22178354,2242100322408374).
文摘Integrating Bayesian Optimization with Volume of Fluid (VOF) simulations, this work aims to optimize the operational conditions and geometric parameters of T-junction microchannels for target droplet sizes. Bayesian Optimization utilizes Gaussian Process (GP) as its core model and employs an adaptive search strategy to efficiently explore and identify optimal combinations of operational parameters within a limited parameter space, thereby enabling rapid optimization of the required parameters to achieve the target droplet size. Traditional methods typically rely on manually selecting a series of operational parameters and conducting multiple simulations to gradually approach the target droplet size. This process is time-consuming and prone to getting trapped in local optima. In contrast, Bayesian Optimization adaptively adjusts its search strategy, significantly reducing computational costs and effectively exploring global optima, thus greatly improving optimization efficiency. Additionally, the study investigates the impact of rectangular rib structures within the T-junction microchannel on droplet generation, revealing how the channel geometry influences droplet formation and size. After determining the target droplet size, we further applied Bayesian Optimization to refine the rib geometry. The integration of Bayesian Optimization with computational fluid dynamics (CFD) offers a promising tool and provides new insights into the optimal design of microfluidic devices.
