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一种对称损失下Kumaraswamy分布参数的Bayes分析
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作者 张学成 徐宝 《吉首大学学报(自然科学版)》 2026年第1期29-40,共12页
在加权p,q对称熵损失函数下,利用Bayes估计方法估计Kumaraswamy分布参数,得到了参数的Bayes估计的一般形式和精确形式,证明了所得Bayes估计的可容许性和最小最大性,并给出了参数的多层Bayes估计、E-Bayes估计和刀切Bayes估计,进一步利用... 在加权p,q对称熵损失函数下,利用Bayes估计方法估计Kumaraswamy分布参数,得到了参数的Bayes估计的一般形式和精确形式,证明了所得Bayes估计的可容许性和最小最大性,并给出了参数的多层Bayes估计、E-Bayes估计和刀切Bayes估计,进一步利用R软件结合Metropolis算法对Kumaraswamy分布参数的Bayes估计、E-Bayes估计和刀切Bayes估计进行了数值模拟.结果表明,Jeffreys先验分布下的Bayes估计比共轭先验分布下的Bayes估计的精度更高;采用刀切法可使同先验分布下的估计效果更好;选取合适的常数,E-Bayes估计的应用可降低超参数对模拟的影响. 展开更多
关键词 Kumaraswamy分布 损失函数 bayES估计 可容许性 Metropolis算法
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两种先验下两参数逆Kum分布参数的Bayes分析
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作者 张学成 徐宝 《井冈山大学学报(自然科学版)》 2026年第2期9-17,共9页
在加权p、q对称熵损失函数下,利用Bayes估计方法,得到了该参数Bayes估计的一般形式和精确形式,证明了所得Bayes估计的可容许性以及最小最大性。然后给出了该参数的多层Bayes估计、E-Bayes估计和刀切Bayes估计。最后运用R程序结合所得估... 在加权p、q对称熵损失函数下,利用Bayes估计方法,得到了该参数Bayes估计的一般形式和精确形式,证明了所得Bayes估计的可容许性以及最小最大性。然后给出了该参数的多层Bayes估计、E-Bayes估计和刀切Bayes估计。最后运用R程序结合所得估计进行了数值模拟,结果表明:在Jeffreys先验下的Bayes估计比共轭先验分布下的Bayes估计精度更高;E-Bayes估计能降低超参数对模拟的影响。 展开更多
关键词 逆Kum分布 损失函数 bayES估计 可容许性 MCMC算法
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Bayes理论下具有随机事件触发机制的DDS-DNNS状态估计
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作者 顾昊伦 戴邵武 万兵 《西北工业大学学报》 北大核心 2026年第1期112-124,共13页
针对基于数据分发服务的分散式组网导航系统(decentralized networked navigation system based on DDS,DDS-DNNS)单定位节点状态估计问题,考虑节点能量约束及传感器增益退化,以Bayes理论为基础,设计了具有随机事件触发机制(stochastic ... 针对基于数据分发服务的分散式组网导航系统(decentralized networked navigation system based on DDS,DDS-DNNS)单定位节点状态估计问题,考虑节点能量约束及传感器增益退化,以Bayes理论为基础,设计了具有随机事件触发机制(stochastic event-triggered,SET)的DDS-DNNS最小均方误差状态估计器。其中,SET机制通过比较是否传输测量值对应的后验估计的差异来决定测量值的重要程度。以此为基础,选取Wasserstein距离作为度量来表示后验估计的差异,并利用Wasserstein距离的性质及Bayes定理证明了后验估计是Gaussian的,从而得到了估计器的类Kalman滤波递推形式以及SET机制的显式表达式。证明了估计器的预测误差协方差有界,且上界和下界均收敛,同时,证明了平均信息传输率有界并推导得到了上界和下界的表达式。利用算例仿真演示了如何通过平均信息传输率的上界和下界确定调整矩阵,模拟了SET机制中一阶矩信息和二阶矩信息对SET机制的影响,同时采用比较实验验证了估计器的有效性。 展开更多
关键词 bayes理论 随机事件触发 KALMAN滤波 后验估计 最小均方误差状态估计
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How do hydrodynamic conditions and land use drive antibiotic fate in estuarine and bay ecosystems?
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作者 Yang Cui Meiqi Shang +1 位作者 Hui Xie Jianwei Dong 《Journal of Environmental Sciences》 2026年第2期27-38,共12页
Estuarine and bay ecosystems serve as crucial transitional zones for land-based pollutants entering the ocean.However,there is a critical gap in understanding the behavior of emerging pollutants in the numerous small ... Estuarine and bay ecosystems serve as crucial transitional zones for land-based pollutants entering the ocean.However,there is a critical gap in understanding the behavior of emerging pollutants in the numerous small estuaries and bays located in undeveloped coastal areas.This study provides insights into the fate of antibiotics in these small and scattered estuaries and bays in Shantou's coast,driven by land use types and hydrodynamic conditions.The findings indicated that estuaries were more heavily polluted with antibiotics than the bays(P<0.05),with tetracyclines and fluoroquinolones as the primary antibiotics.Antibiotic pollution levels were more severe in October than in June(P<0.01).Rainfall runoff,aquaculture tailwater,and river discharge were identified as the main sources of antibiotic pollution.Build-up land and aquaculture ponds were the primary land use types contributing to antibiotic pollution.The total antibiotic concentrations in June were positively correlated with the proportion of aquaculture ponds(P<0.05)and negatively correlated with the proportions of cropland and grassland(P<0.05).The concentrations of lomefloxacin and ofloxacin were positively correlated with build-up land.The antibiotic concentrations exhibited strong spatial heterogeneity within both bay and estuarine ecosystems driven by different hydrodynamic conditions.A comparative analysis of global estuaries and bays revealed that specific land-use types and hydrodynamic conditions produced similar trends in antibiotic fate.These insights offered new perspectives to safeguard the health of estuarine and bay ecosystems,such as altering landscape patterns and regulating aquaculture activities. 展开更多
关键词 ANTIBIOTICS COASTAL Estuarine ecosystems bay ecosystems Land use Hydrodynamic conditions
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Limited growth and recruitment of Oikopleura dioica(Tunicata:Appendicularia)in the Jiaozhou Bay,China
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作者 Shuai LI Mengtan LIU +5 位作者 Aiyong WAN Zhiqiang XU Shiwei WANG Yi LIANG Zengxia ZHAO Guangtao ZHANG 《Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 2026年第1期234-250,共17页
Pelagic appendicularians,known for their rapid bloom capability,are important secondary producers and play essential roles in marine ecosystems.To assess the environmental adaptation of the most common appendicularian... Pelagic appendicularians,known for their rapid bloom capability,are important secondary producers and play essential roles in marine ecosystems.To assess the environmental adaptation of the most common appendicularian species Oikopleura dioica in Jiaozhou Bay,Shandong,China,its annual variations in abundance and body size were investigated monthly at 12 stations in 2011,and the relationship between somatic growth and gonadal development was compared with previously published laboratory data.Oikopleura dioica exhibited distinct seasonal abundance patterns,peaking in summer and autumn,particularly in the inner bay,reflecting its adaptation to the eutrophic conditions and high food availability.Compared to laboratory results,O.dioica in Jiaozhou Bay exhibited shorter body lengths,smaller gonad volumes,and earlier maturation at reduced body sizes,despite high natural chlorophyll-a concentration,suggesting that factors beyond food availability,such as resource competition and environmental stressors,may limit its growth in natural settings.Correlation analysis indicated that the somatic growth of natural O.dioica was primarily influenced by temperature,while gonadal development was related to chlorophyll-a concentration,and its population abundance was linked to food availability and the abundance of other zooplankton,such as copepods and jellyfish.It was suggested that the growth and recruitment of O.dioica were constrained by resource limitations in natural environments,further exacerbated by interactions with other zooplankton,including predation and competition.This study provides valuable data on the mechanisms underlying bio-environmental interactions and their spatiotemporal variations,offering critical insights into the ecological roles of appendicularians in marine ecosystems. 展开更多
关键词 Oikopleura dioica body size size-at-maturation food limitation Jiaozhou bay population recruitment
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In-field nutrient enrichment experiments in Sanggou Bay kelp farming
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作者 Yiwen CHEN Song SUN +3 位作者 Ziyuan HU Junhua LIANG Mingliang ZHU Yitao ZHANG 《Journal of Oceanology and Limnology》 2026年第1期174-183,共10页
Nutrients play a crucial role in sustaining marine ecosystems and supporting mariculture,especially in seaweed aquaculture.Currently,seaweed farming,such as kelp cultivation,is entirely dependent on the natural supply... Nutrients play a crucial role in sustaining marine ecosystems and supporting mariculture,especially in seaweed aquaculture.Currently,seaweed farming,such as kelp cultivation,is entirely dependent on the natural supply of nutrients.Sanggou Bay in Shandong Peninsula,Yellow Sea,is renowned for its 60-year history of kelp cultivation;however,it is recently facing an increasing demand for nitrogen and phosphorus due to the expansion in aquaculture scale and production.There is no doubt that nutrient addition can enhance and sustain the production,but it is crucial to understand its effect on kelp growth under current nutrients condition and the potential ecological risks.Our in-field nutrient enrichment experiments show that nitrogen and phosphorus additions promoted the kelp biomass during the early growth stages,and have no adverse effects on phytoplankton or seawater nutrient levels throughout the experiment.From a long-term perspective,increasing nutrient supply appears to be an essential strategy for sustaining the aquaculture of kelp. 展开更多
关键词 KELP nutrient enrichment nitrogen and phosphorus Sanggou bay kelp aquaculture
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A review of modeling development for estimations of ocean–sea ice–ice shelf interaction in Prydz Bay,East Antarctica
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作者 FAN Jiahao LIU Chengyan +6 位作者 WANG Zhaomin YAN Liangjun XIA Yue LIU Yang WU Yang LIANG Xi LI Xiang 《Advances in Polar Science》 2026年第1期24-34,共11页
Prydz Bay,East Antarctica,is a critical region for studying ocean–sea ice–ice shelf interactions and their role in the global climate system.This review synthesizes the advancements in numerical modeling of physical... Prydz Bay,East Antarctica,is a critical region for studying ocean–sea ice–ice shelf interactions and their role in the global climate system.This review synthesizes the advancements in numerical modeling of physical oceanographic processes in Prydz Bay,highlighting the evolution from early one-dimensional thermodynamic models to contemporary high-resolution,three-dimensional coupled ocean–sea ice–ice shelf frameworks.We discuss key milestones in understanding processes such as frazil ice dynamics and its impact on the basal mass balance of the Amery Ice Shelf,the pathways and mechanisms of Modified Circumpolar Deep Water intrusions,and the dynamic influences of large icebergs on regional circulation.Despite significant progress,challenges remain in integrating multi-component interactions and achieving long-term,high-resolution climate projections.Future efforts should focus on developing fully coupled models that incorporate atmosphere–ocean–sea ice–ice shelf–iceberg interactions,supported by enhanced observational networks and improved computational efficiency.This review underscores the importance of continued modeling advancement to better predict the responses of Antarctic ice shelves and polar climate to global change. 展开更多
关键词 Prydz bay modeling development OCEAN sea ice Amery Ice Shelf
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Characteristics of regionalized distribution of antibiotics and ARGs in Daliao River-Liaodong Bay waters and their environmental impact factors
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作者 Bing Li Hui Gao +3 位作者 Ruijing Li Xuan Jia Wenjun Yao Ziwei Yao 《Journal of Environmental Sciences》 2026年第2期722-731,共10页
This paper takes the water body of Daliao River-Liaodong Bay as the research object,divides it into three regions:river,estuary,and offshore,and analyzes the changes of antibiotics and antibiotic resistance genes(ARGs... This paper takes the water body of Daliao River-Liaodong Bay as the research object,divides it into three regions:river,estuary,and offshore,and analyzes the changes of antibiotics and antibiotic resistance genes(ARGs)from inland rivers to the sea and the environmental impact factors from this perspective.The results showed that in general,the pollution of antibiotics and ARGs in Daliao River-Liaodong Bay belonged to the medium-low level,and levels of antibiotics and ARGs were nd–106.23 ng/L and nd–1.95×10^(8)copies/L,respectively.The concentrations and types of antibiotics and ARGs decreased from inland to sea regions.Analysis of the distributional characteristics of antibiotics and ARGs from a regionalized perspective revealed significant differences among the three regions in sulfonamide antibiotics,tetracycline antibiotics,and dominant ARGs.Sulfonamide antibiotic levels were significantly higher in the estuarine zone than in the riverine and offshore zones;tetracycline antibiotic levels were significantly higher in the riverine and estuarine zones than in the offshore zone.Aminoglycosides were dominant in the riverine and estuarine zones,and macrolides were dominant in the offshore zone.We characterized the effects of environmental factors on the assignment of antibiotics and ARGs and found that overall temperature contributed the most to variation in antibiotics and ARGs;the contribution of dissolved oxygen was the lowest.The estuarine zone was most affected by these factors,followed by the offshore zone and finally the riverine zone. 展开更多
关键词 Daliao River-Liaodong bay ANTIBIOTICS Antibiotic resistance gene ARGs Occurrence distribution Environmental factor
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Characteristics of carbon emission point sources and industry analysis in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area
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作者 Ying Teng Jiajie Li +10 位作者 Yiqi Chen Meiyu Guo Tian Gao Ji Kong Yuze Wang Pengfei Wang Jinlong Zhu Songbai Han Senyou An Jianbo Zhu Heping Xie 《Energy Geoscience》 2026年第1期179-194,共16页
Carbon Capture,Utilization,and Storage(CCUS)technology has gained widespread attention in recent years as a critical strategy to combat global climate change,particularly in achieving carbon neutrality goals.The Guang... Carbon Capture,Utilization,and Storage(CCUS)technology has gained widespread attention in recent years as a critical strategy to combat global climate change,particularly in achieving carbon neutrality goals.The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA),as one of China's most economically active regions,serves as a key engine for economic growth while also facing considerable carbon emission challenges.This study analyzes the industrial emission volume and geographical distribution of key emitting enterprises in the GBA,summarizes their technological processes and main carbonemitting equipment,and provides scientific support for precise mitigation policies and low-carbon development.Based on data from 176 key emitting enterprises,the study reveals that Guangzhou and Dongguan host the largest number of such enterprises.Carbon emissions are primarily concentrated in the power sector,dominated by coal-and gas-fired power units,characterized by significant spatial dispersion and uneven distribution.Beyond the power sector,the paper industry has a high number of enterprises but lower emissions.Key facilities such as boilers,cogeneration systems,and production lines are predominantly located near tributaries rivers in Dongguan and Jiangmen.The building materials sector,primarily cement production,ranks as the second-largest emitter,with hightemperature kilns and grinding equipment,particularly rotary kilns and glass furnaces,as the main sources.The petrochemical and chemical sectors have fewer enterprises and lower emissions in the GBA,mainly located in suburban industrial clusters.Carbon emissions in the GBA exhibit distinct industry concentration and geographical distribution disparities.This study provides crucial data and theoretical insights for the development of targeted emission reduction strategies,optimization of source-sink matching,and the advancement of CCUS technologies in the region,particularly from the GBA to the northern South China Sea. 展开更多
关键词 Greater bay Area Key emitting enterprise Carbon emission point source Source-sink matching CCUS
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Nutrient accumulation and eutrophication restricted CO_(2) emissions in the two backwater bays in the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR),China
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作者 Chen Jian Xiaofeng Wang +5 位作者 Tingting Liu Yuewei Zhang Lijun Wang Honglin Chen Dongfeng Li Yixin He 《Journal of Environmental Sciences》 2026年第2期656-669,共14页
Reservoir is an important source of CO_(2) emissions.The backwater bay is a distinct hydrological unit formed in the open channel of canyon-reservoir as a result of impoundment.It is characterized by efficient nutrien... Reservoir is an important source of CO_(2) emissions.The backwater bay is a distinct hydrological unit formed in the open channel of canyon-reservoir as a result of impoundment.It is characterized by efficient nutrients retention and a propensity for frequent eutrophication.However,the spatio-temporal dynamics of CO_(2) emissions in these backwater bays remain unclear.This study investigated CO_(2) fluxes(fCO_(2))in two different backwater bays(Hanfeng Lake and Gaoyang Lake)within the Three Gorges Reservoir(TGR),to reveal the spatio-temporal dynamics and driving factors of CO_(2) emissions.The two backwater bays serve as minor sources of CO_(2) emissions,exhibiting lower fCO_(2) compared to other water areas within the TGR.In the subsiding and low water level periods of the TGR,the fCO_(2) in the two backwater bays were significantly lower,with some areas even converting into CO_(2) sinks due to extensive eutrophication.However,the water flow backward caused by the TGR water level elevation simultaneously enhances CO_(2) emissions by diluting algae density and constraining primary production.We highlighted that nutrients enrichment,eutrophication,and water level fluctuations co-dominate the temporal dynamics of CO_(2) emissions from backwater bays in the TGR.The CO_(2) fluxes decreased from upstream to downstream in the two backwater bays.The spatial distribution of nutrients and related algal density are critical factors driving this pattern.The key factors influencing CO_(2) emissions in the backwater bays diversified with water level fluctuations.Our findings contribute to a better understanding of CO_(2) emissions in large reservoirs with varying hydrological habitats. 展开更多
关键词 CO_(2)flux Backwater bays Nutrient accumulation EUTROPHICATION Three Gorges Reservoir
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基于条件高斯PAC-Bayes的机载CNN分类器安全性评估 被引量:2
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作者 马赞 白杰 +2 位作者 陈勇 刘瑞华 张艳婷 《航空学报》 北大核心 2025年第4期217-230,共14页
针对机器学习技术的固有不确定输出特性给航空器适航安全性定量评估造成的挑战,在SAE ARP4761标准框架下,基于条件高斯PAC-Bayes泛化理论提出一种面向卷积神经网络(CNN)分类功能的系统安全性评估方法。首先,基于PAC-Bayes理论,通过条件... 针对机器学习技术的固有不确定输出特性给航空器适航安全性定量评估造成的挑战,在SAE ARP4761标准框架下,基于条件高斯PAC-Bayes泛化理论提出一种面向卷积神经网络(CNN)分类功能的系统安全性评估方法。首先,基于PAC-Bayes理论,通过条件高斯分布改进训练方法,优化泛化界,获取CNN模型不确定性量化表示。其次,提出一种基于泛化界置信度的软件不确定性与硬件可靠性融合方法,获取CNN部件的综合失效基础数据,支持整机/系统的定量安全性评估。最后,以基于CNN的全球导航卫星系统干扰信号识别模块装机为案例,表明该方法对适航安全性评估的有效支撑作用,为CNN技术的装机应用提供了必要的适航符合性保证。同时也实验验证基于条件高斯的方法比标准PAC-Bayes及Vapnik-Chervonenkis维都具有更紧的计算边界。 展开更多
关键词 机载CNN分类器 PAC-bayes SAE ARP4761 条件高斯 适航安全性
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模糊Bayes方法在聚驱抽油机井可靠性分析中的应用 被引量:1
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作者 张玉斌 李波 《石油工业技术监督》 2005年第10期12-15,共4页
根据Bayes理论,对现场使用聚驱抽油机井管杆偏磨的失效数据进行模糊可靠性统计分析。首先进行各态失效数据异常点的Bayes诊断,对各态寿命分布参数进行Bayes估计;然后运用模糊综合评判方法确定各态失效寿命概率模型,最后得到管杆偏磨失... 根据Bayes理论,对现场使用聚驱抽油机井管杆偏磨的失效数据进行模糊可靠性统计分析。首先进行各态失效数据异常点的Bayes诊断,对各态寿命分布参数进行Bayes估计;然后运用模糊综合评判方法确定各态失效寿命概率模型,最后得到管杆偏磨失效主要可靠性指标,为进行可靠性分析提供定量依据。 展开更多
关键词 模糊bayes方法 聚驱抽油机井 可靠性分析 bayES方法 可靠性分析 抽油机井 模糊综合评判方法 bayes理论 bayES估计 应用 失效数据 失效寿命
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基于随机建模与Bayes推断的结构热传导数字孪生建模方法研究
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作者 李建宇 付介祥 +1 位作者 郝鑫野 李广利 《应用数学和力学》 北大核心 2025年第8期983-998,共16页
极端热环境条件下结构传热温度场的准确预测是评估装备热⁃力耦合性能的关键基础.数字孪生(digital twin)技术通过对观测数据与仿真模型的深度融合,可实现温度场的高精度动态重构.然而,考虑观测噪声、模型参数不确定性、边界条件扰动等... 极端热环境条件下结构传热温度场的准确预测是评估装备热⁃力耦合性能的关键基础.数字孪生(digital twin)技术通过对观测数据与仿真模型的深度融合,可实现温度场的高精度动态重构.然而,考虑观测噪声、模型参数不确定性、边界条件扰动等多源不确定性因素的结构传热温度场预测数字孪生模型目前还不多见.该文基于Bayes推断框架,提出了一种结合随机传热分析的数据与模型融合方法,旨在构建考虑不确定性量化的热传导数字孪生模型.首先,在热传导方程中引入随机扰动热源项,以模拟未被原模型量化表征的不确定性因素;其次,采用随机有限元方法求解随机扰动热传导模型,获得包含物理信息的温度场先验分布;最后,基于Bayes法则,将含噪声的观测数据与模型预测先验分布进行融合,并针对Gauss分布情形推导出温度场后验分布的解析表达式.通过一维和二维热传导算例验证,所提方法不仅能够实现对温度场的高精度预测,还可有效量化预测结果的不确定性. 展开更多
关键词 热传导分析 数字孪生 随机有限元 bayES推断 不确定性量化
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基于Fisher变换和Bayes分类原理的RC梁柱中节点破坏形态多参数判别方法
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作者 王素裹 范存喜 郑宜 《华南理工大学学报(自然科学版)》 北大核心 2025年第12期107-116,共10页
钢筋混凝土梁柱节点在侧向荷载作用下的多种不同破坏形态对结构性能具有不同的影响,因此准确划分构件的破坏形态是结构性能设计中确定构件变形性能限值的关键。现有研究对梁柱节点不同破坏形态之间尚未明确划分界限,且难以通过单一参数... 钢筋混凝土梁柱节点在侧向荷载作用下的多种不同破坏形态对结构性能具有不同的影响,因此准确划分构件的破坏形态是结构性能设计中确定构件变形性能限值的关键。现有研究对梁柱节点不同破坏形态之间尚未明确划分界限,且难以通过单一参数区分出不同破坏类型对应的区间。基于Fisher变换和Bayes分类原理提出了一种能更准确、更方便应用的考虑多参数影响的梁柱中节点破坏形态判别方法。该方法先通过Fisher判别法寻找类与类最大分离的投影空间,将原样本向最大分离空间投影,从而获得更利于分类的新样本;在此基础上,进一步结合Bayes分类原理对新样本进行分类判别。在中节点破坏形态划分研究中,基于此分类方法,在选取轴压比、剪压比、混凝土强度和配箍特征值4个参数组合的基础上,建立了相应的多参数分类判别方程,达到了较好划分出梁柱中节点破坏形态和明确不同破坏形态对应的区间的目的。此外,还通过对影响因素的敏感性分析,确定了剪压比对梁柱中节点破坏形态的影响权重最大、配箍特征值次之,因此,调整剪压比和配箍特征值是避免该节点产生剪切破坏的有效途径。 展开更多
关键词 钢筋混凝土 梁柱中节点 FISHER变换 bayES分类 破坏形态
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双定时混合截尾下双参数指数分布参数的Bayes估计
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作者 牟悦嘉 李云飞 《西华师范大学学报(自然科学版)》 2025年第5期492-498,共7页
在双定时混合截尾场合下,针对双参数指数分布,首先研究了门限参数(μ)和尺度参数(θ)的极大似然估计。然后讨论了μ已知时,θ在3种损失函数下的Bayes估计和E-Bayes估计,结合遗传算法得到了共轭先验分布中超参数的最优值,数值模拟表明遗... 在双定时混合截尾场合下,针对双参数指数分布,首先研究了门限参数(μ)和尺度参数(θ)的极大似然估计。然后讨论了μ已知时,θ在3种损失函数下的Bayes估计和E-Bayes估计,结合遗传算法得到了共轭先验分布中超参数的最优值,数值模拟表明遗传算法能够更加准确地估计超参数,从而提高参数Bayes估计的精度。最后研究了μ和θ均未知时两个参数的Bayes估计,数值模拟表明两参数的Bayes估计精度高于极大似然估计精度。 展开更多
关键词 双参数指数分布 双定时混合截尾 极大似然估计 bayES估计 E-bayES估计
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k阶Erlang分布参数在加权p、q对称熵损失下的Bayes估计
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作者 季海波 《淮阴师范学院学报(自然科学版)》 2025年第2期102-106,共5页
研究了k阶Erlang分布的参数在加权p、q对称熵损失下的Bayes估计问题.在不同先验分布下给出了参数的Bayes估计的精确形式,进一步研究了Gamma先验分布情形下多层Bayes估计和E-Bayes估计,并运用Monte-Carlo模拟方法验证了各个Bayes估计的... 研究了k阶Erlang分布的参数在加权p、q对称熵损失下的Bayes估计问题.在不同先验分布下给出了参数的Bayes估计的精确形式,进一步研究了Gamma先验分布情形下多层Bayes估计和E-Bayes估计,并运用Monte-Carlo模拟方法验证了各个Bayes估计的合理性. 展开更多
关键词 ERLANG分布 加权p、q对称熵损失 bayES估计 Monte-Carlo模拟
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Mlinex损失函数下几何分布参数的Bayes估计 被引量:6
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作者 周桂兰 朱宁 农以宁 《统计与决策》 CSSCI 北大核心 2018年第19期23-28,共6页
在Mlinex损失函数下,文章讨论了几何分布可靠度的Bayes估计问题,在可靠度的先验分布为贝塔共轭先验分布和幂分布下,得到了可靠度的Bayes估计,并证明了它的容许性。当可靠度先验分布为贝塔分布时,给出三类不同超参数的E-Bayes估计和多层B... 在Mlinex损失函数下,文章讨论了几何分布可靠度的Bayes估计问题,在可靠度的先验分布为贝塔共轭先验分布和幂分布下,得到了可靠度的Bayes估计,并证明了它的容许性。当可靠度先验分布为贝塔分布时,给出三类不同超参数的E-Bayes估计和多层Bayes估计,并在一定条件下得到E-Bayes估计、多层Bayes估计具有等价性。利用Monte Carlo数值模拟对几种估计进行比较。 展开更多
关键词 Mlinex损失函数 几何分布 bayES估计 E-bayES估计 多层bayES估计
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复合MLINEX对称损失函数下Pareto分布参数的Bayes估计 被引量:6
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作者 朱宁 刘庆华 +1 位作者 农以宁 蒋东云 《统计与决策》 CSSCI 北大核心 2018年第5期11-15,共5页
文章针对两参数Pareto分布的Bayes估计问题,在尺度参数λ已知的情况下,运用Bayes定理,得到复合MLINEX对称损失函数下形状参数θ的Bayes估计,并证明其是可容许的。最后在给定三类不同超参数的先验密度函数下,给出E-Bayes估计和多层Bayes... 文章针对两参数Pareto分布的Bayes估计问题,在尺度参数λ已知的情况下,运用Bayes定理,得到复合MLINEX对称损失函数下形状参数θ的Bayes估计,并证明其是可容许的。最后在给定三类不同超参数的先验密度函数下,给出E-Bayes估计和多层Bayes估计,且得到E-Bayes估计具有保序性。 展开更多
关键词 PARETO分布 bayES估计 E-bayES估计 多层bayES估计 复合MLINEX对称损失函数 保序性
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基于Bayes超参数优化梯度提升树的心脏病预测方法 被引量:3
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作者 王海燕 焦增晨 +2 位作者 赵剑 安天博 鞠熠 《吉林大学学报(理学版)》 北大核心 2025年第2期472-478,共7页
针对传统机器学习算法在数据集Cleveland和Hungary上预测准确率低的问题,提出一种基于Bayes超参数优化梯度提升树的心脏病预测方法.首先,采用K-最近邻算法对数据集中的缺失值进行填补,用Min-Max标准化、One-Hot编码处理数据,并基于梯度... 针对传统机器学习算法在数据集Cleveland和Hungary上预测准确率低的问题,提出一种基于Bayes超参数优化梯度提升树的心脏病预测方法.首先,采用K-最近邻算法对数据集中的缺失值进行填补,用Min-Max标准化、One-Hot编码处理数据,并基于梯度提升树算法进行心脏病预测;其次,采用Bayes优化和十倍交叉验证的方式搜寻算法的最佳超参数组合.实验结果表明,优化后的梯度提升树算法在心脏病数据集Cleveland上预测准确率可达90.2%,在心脏病数据集Hungary上预测准确率可达81.4%,优于决策树、支持向量机、K-最近邻等传统机器学习方法,可辅助医生进行心脏病诊断. 展开更多
关键词 心脏病预测 K-最近邻算法 梯度提升树 bayes优化
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Linex损失下Lomax分布形状参数的几种Bayes估计 被引量:6
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作者 姚惠 吴现荣 《黔南民族师范学院学报》 2012年第6期113-116,共4页
本文研究了在Linex损失函数下,两参数Lomax分布中尺度参数已知时形状参数的Bayes估计、多层Bayes估计及E-Bayes估计,并运用Monte Carlo随机模拟对各个估计值进行比较.
关键词 Lomax分布 LINEX损失 bayES估计 多层bayES估计 E—bayes估计 比较
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