目的分析1990—2021年间中国因过量饮酒导致的喉癌疾病负担变化趋势,并预测至2040年的趋势,为疾病防控提供参考。方法基于全球疾病负担2021年数据,提取伤残调整生命年(disability adjusted life years,DALYs)和伤残调整生命年率(disabil...目的分析1990—2021年间中国因过量饮酒导致的喉癌疾病负担变化趋势,并预测至2040年的趋势,为疾病防控提供参考。方法基于全球疾病负担2021年数据,提取伤残调整生命年(disability adjusted life years,DALYs)和伤残调整生命年率(disability adjusted life years rate,DALYs),死亡人数和死亡率作为分析指标评估疾病负担;运用分解分析探讨人口增长、老龄化及流行病学改变对疾病负担变化的贡献;利用年龄-时期-队列模型分析不同年龄组、时期、出生队列疾病负担变化趋势;采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(bayesian age-period-cohort,BAPC)模型预测至2040年趋势变化。结果1990—2021年,中国因过量饮酒导致的喉癌DALYs和死亡人数增加,但年龄标准化DALYs率(age standardized disability adjusted life years rate,ASDR)和年龄标准化死亡率(age standardized mortality rate,ASMR)呈下降趋势,相较于全球水平,中国负担较轻;男性的负担显著高于女性,55~59岁和65~69岁为关键年龄段;人口增长是负担增加的主要因素,流行病学改变因素起保护作用。1992—1996年、65~69岁年龄组因过量饮酒导致喉癌的负担最高,年龄较大的出生队列显示出更高负担。预测至2040年,疾病负担将持续下降。结论1990—2021年,中国因过量饮酒导致喉癌的绝对负担持续增长,但年龄标准化率呈下降趋势,预测至2040年将持续降低。流行病学改变减轻了疾病负担,但人口增长和老龄化使绝对负担上升。55岁以上男性群体是疾病负担的重点人群,仍是中国在应对过量饮酒导致喉癌问题上的关键挑战。展开更多
Background:Upper respiratory infections(URIs)are common infectious diseases worldwide.Accurate and timely assessment of the disease burden of URIs is crucial for governments to develop comprehensive prevention and con...Background:Upper respiratory infections(URIs)are common infectious diseases worldwide.Accurate and timely assessment of the disease burden of URIs is crucial for governments to develop comprehensive prevention and control strategies,and to allocate and utilize healthcare resources more efficiently.Methods:For URIs in Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database,age-standardized incidence rates(ASIR),age-standardized prevalence rates(ASPR),age-standardized mortality rates(ASMR),disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs),and case numbers for incidence,prevalence,deaths,and DALYs across the globe,five socio-demographic index(SDI)regions,21 geographical regions,and 204 countries and territories were provided and analyzed.Trends from 1990 to 2021 were described using the average annual percentage change(AAPC),and future URIs burden was projected with a Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model.Results:From 1990 to 2021,there was a significant decline in global ASIR(APCC=-289.86,95%confidence interval[CI]:-298.59 to-281.12),ASPR(AAPC=-4.04,95%CI:-4.16 to-3.92),ASMR(AAPC=-0.02,95%CI:-0.02 to-0.03)and age-standardized DALY rate(AAPC=-0.75,95%CI:-0.76 to-0.74).The ASIR,ASPR,ASMR,and age-standardized DALY rate were high in elderly for both males and females,and both genders.Similarly,the number of incident cases,prevalence cases,deaths,and DALY cases for URIs was highest in children under five years.The ASMR and age-standardized DALY rate exhibited a negative correlation with SDI across 204 countries and territories in 2021.The ASIR and ASPR for URIs will show an upward trend from 2022 to 2050,while ASMR and age-standardized DALY rate are expected to decline.Low birth weight for gestation remains the leading contributor to deaths related to URIs.展开更多
文摘目的分析1990—2021年间中国因过量饮酒导致的喉癌疾病负担变化趋势,并预测至2040年的趋势,为疾病防控提供参考。方法基于全球疾病负担2021年数据,提取伤残调整生命年(disability adjusted life years,DALYs)和伤残调整生命年率(disability adjusted life years rate,DALYs),死亡人数和死亡率作为分析指标评估疾病负担;运用分解分析探讨人口增长、老龄化及流行病学改变对疾病负担变化的贡献;利用年龄-时期-队列模型分析不同年龄组、时期、出生队列疾病负担变化趋势;采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(bayesian age-period-cohort,BAPC)模型预测至2040年趋势变化。结果1990—2021年,中国因过量饮酒导致的喉癌DALYs和死亡人数增加,但年龄标准化DALYs率(age standardized disability adjusted life years rate,ASDR)和年龄标准化死亡率(age standardized mortality rate,ASMR)呈下降趋势,相较于全球水平,中国负担较轻;男性的负担显著高于女性,55~59岁和65~69岁为关键年龄段;人口增长是负担增加的主要因素,流行病学改变因素起保护作用。1992—1996年、65~69岁年龄组因过量饮酒导致喉癌的负担最高,年龄较大的出生队列显示出更高负担。预测至2040年,疾病负担将持续下降。结论1990—2021年,中国因过量饮酒导致喉癌的绝对负担持续增长,但年龄标准化率呈下降趋势,预测至2040年将持续降低。流行病学改变减轻了疾病负担,但人口增长和老龄化使绝对负担上升。55岁以上男性群体是疾病负担的重点人群,仍是中国在应对过量饮酒导致喉癌问题上的关键挑战。
基金supported by the fund of Shanghai Natural Science Foundation(grant number 23ZR1464000)the Talent Fund of Longhua Hospital affiliated to Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine(grant number LH001.007).
文摘Background:Upper respiratory infections(URIs)are common infectious diseases worldwide.Accurate and timely assessment of the disease burden of URIs is crucial for governments to develop comprehensive prevention and control strategies,and to allocate and utilize healthcare resources more efficiently.Methods:For URIs in Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021 database,age-standardized incidence rates(ASIR),age-standardized prevalence rates(ASPR),age-standardized mortality rates(ASMR),disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs),and case numbers for incidence,prevalence,deaths,and DALYs across the globe,five socio-demographic index(SDI)regions,21 geographical regions,and 204 countries and territories were provided and analyzed.Trends from 1990 to 2021 were described using the average annual percentage change(AAPC),and future URIs burden was projected with a Bayesian age-period-cohort(BAPC)model.Results:From 1990 to 2021,there was a significant decline in global ASIR(APCC=-289.86,95%confidence interval[CI]:-298.59 to-281.12),ASPR(AAPC=-4.04,95%CI:-4.16 to-3.92),ASMR(AAPC=-0.02,95%CI:-0.02 to-0.03)and age-standardized DALY rate(AAPC=-0.75,95%CI:-0.76 to-0.74).The ASIR,ASPR,ASMR,and age-standardized DALY rate were high in elderly for both males and females,and both genders.Similarly,the number of incident cases,prevalence cases,deaths,and DALY cases for URIs was highest in children under five years.The ASMR and age-standardized DALY rate exhibited a negative correlation with SDI across 204 countries and territories in 2021.The ASIR and ASPR for URIs will show an upward trend from 2022 to 2050,while ASMR and age-standardized DALY rate are expected to decline.Low birth weight for gestation remains the leading contributor to deaths related to URIs.
