Objective:Knee osteoarthritis is one of the important causes of disability worldwide.This study aims to analyze the disease burden of knee osteoarthritis,attributable risk factors among Chinese residents from 1990 to ...Objective:Knee osteoarthritis is one of the important causes of disability worldwide.This study aims to analyze the disease burden of knee osteoarthritis,attributable risk factors among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021,and predict the disease burden trend for 2035.Methods:Data related to knee osteoarthritis in China from 1990 to 2021,including the number of incident cases,incidence rate,number of prevalent cases,prevalence rate,and years lived with disability(YLDs),were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study(GBD2021)database.Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess time trends,and the Bayesian-Age-Period-Cohort(BAPC)regression model was employed for future predictions.Results:From 1990 to 2021,the number of incident cases of knee osteoarthritis among Chinese residents increased from 3.65 million to 8.51 million,a rise of 133.16%,with an average annual increase of 3.15%.The incidence rate increased from 310.33 per 100,000 to 598.31 per 100,000,a rise of 92.80%,with an average annual increase of 2.55%.The number of prevalent cases increased from 41.04 million to 110 million,a rise of 166.97%,with an average annual increase of 3.61%.The prevalence rate increased from 3488.78 per 100,000 to 7701.69 per 100,000,a rise of 120.76%,with an average annual increase of 3.00%.The number of YLDs increased from 1.34 million to 3.55 million,a rise of 165.32%,with an average annual increase of 3.59%.The YLD rate increased from 113.86 per 100,000 to 249.81 per 100,000,a rise of 119.39%,with an average annual increase of 2.99%.High BMI was the only significant attributable risk factor,with the proportion of YLDs it caused continuing to rise.Predictions for 2035:The number of incident cases is expected to decline slightly from 5.89 million in 2022 to 5.72 million in 2035.The number of prevalent cases is expected to peak at 72.42 million in 2029 and be around 72.69 million in 2035.The number of YLDs is expected to increase year by year,from 2.35 million in 2022 to 2.35 million in 2035.Conclusion:The study reveals the increasing prevalence and disease burden of knee osteoarthritis among Chinese residents,emphasizing the importance of interventions targeting controllable risk factors.Although the prediction shows a slight decline in the number of incident cases in 2035,the number of prevalent cases and years of disability are expected to remain high,indicating the need for continued monitoring and intervention.展开更多
Objective： To evaluate the population attributable risks （PARs） between cigarette smoking and deaths of all causes, all cancers, lung cancer and other chronic diseases in urban Shanghai. Methods： In total, 61,480 ...Objective： To evaluate the population attributable risks （PARs） between cigarette smoking and deaths of all causes, all cancers, lung cancer and other chronic diseases in urban Shanghai. Methods： In total, 61,480 men aged 40-74 years from 2002 to 2006 and 74,941 women aged 40-70 years from 1997 to 2000 were recruited to undergo baseline surveys in urban Shanghai, with response rates of 74.0% and 92.3%, respectively. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate relative risks （RRs） and 95% confidence intervals （95% CIs） of deaths associated with cigarette smoking. PARs and 95 % CIs for deaths were estimated from smoking exposure rates and the estimated RRs. Results： Cigarette smoking was responsible for 23.9% （95% CI： 19.4-28.3%） and 2.4% （95% Ch 1.6- 3.2%） of all deaths in men and women, respectively, in our study population. Respiratory disease had the highest PAR in men [37.5% （95% CI： 21.5-51.6%）], followed by cancer [31.3% （95% Ch 24.6-37.7%）] and cardiovascular disease （CVD） [24.1% （95% CI： 16.7-31.2%）]. While the top three PARs were 12.7% （95% CI： 6.1-19.3%）, 4.0% （95% CI： 2.4-5.6%）, and 1.1% （95% CI： 0.0-2.3%）, for respiratory disease, CVD, and cancer, respectively in women. For deaths of lung cancer, the PAR of smoking was 68.4% （95% CI： 58.2- 76.5%） in men. Conclusions： In urban Shanghai, 23.9% and 2.4% of all deaths in men and women could have been prevented if no people had smoked in the area. Effective control programs against cigarette smoking should be strongly advocated to reduce the increasing smoking-related death burden.展开更多
Objective We aimed to analyze the current indoor radon level and estimate the population risk of radon-induced lung cancer in urban areas of China.Methods Using the passive monitoring method,a new survey on indoor rad...Objective We aimed to analyze the current indoor radon level and estimate the population risk of radon-induced lung cancer in urban areas of China.Methods Using the passive monitoring method,a new survey on indoor radon concentrations was conducted in 2,875 dwellings across 31 provincial capital cities in Chinese mainland from 2018 to 2023.The attributable risk of lung cancer induced by indoor radon exposure was estimated based on the risk assessment model.Results The arithmetic mean(AM)and geometric mean(GM)of indoor radon concentrations were 65 Bq/m^(3)and 55 Bq/m^(3),respectively,with 13.6%of measured dwellings exceeding 100 Bq/m^(3)and 0.6%exceeding 300 Bq/m^(3).The estimated number of lung cancer deaths induced by indoor radon exposure was 150,795,accounting for 20.30%(95%CI:20.21%-20.49%)of the lung cancer death toll.Conclusion This study provided the most recent data on national indoor radon levels in urban areas and the attributable risk of lung cancer.These results served as an important foundation for further research on the disease burden of indoor radon exposure and radon mitigation efforts.展开更多
The technological revolution has spawned a new generation of industrial systems,but it has also put forward higher requirements for safety management accuracy,timeliness,and systematicness.Risk assessment needs to evo...The technological revolution has spawned a new generation of industrial systems,but it has also put forward higher requirements for safety management accuracy,timeliness,and systematicness.Risk assessment needs to evolve to address the existing and future challenges by considering the new demands and advancements in safety management.The study aims to propose a systematic and comprehensive risk assessment method to meet the needs of process system safety management.The methodology first incorporates possibility,severity,and dynamicity(PSD)to structure the“51X”evaluation indicator system,including the inherent,management,and disturbance risk factors.Subsequently,the four-tier(risk point-unit-enterprise-region)risk assessment(RA)mathematical model has been established to consider supervision needs.And in conclusion,the application of the PSD-RA method in ammonia refrigeration workshop cases and safety risk monitoring systems is presented to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed PSD-RA method in safety management.The findings show that the PSD-RA method can be well integrated with the needs of safety work informatization,which is also helpful for implementing the enterprise's safety work responsibility and the government's safety supervision responsibility.展开更多
<strong>Background:</strong><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> Stroke is the second leading cause of death in the world and ...<strong>Background:</strong><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> Stroke is the second leading cause of death in the world and the third due to disability. However, there are few data available that identify the risk factors associated with it and their weight in different populations (population risk). </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Aim: </span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Contribute to the knowledge of burden risk factors in stroke </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">in a large cohort of Southern Italy</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">. </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Methods</span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">: The data refer to a randomized Campania cohort of 1200 subjects (35</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> </span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">74 years) enrolled in 2008-09. Ten years later (2018-19) they were re-evaluated. We analyzed data from 32 patients who reported a cerebrovascular event (stroke or TIA) with the event-free group of subjects (804 subjects: 378 men and 426 women). We evaluated: absolute risk, Odds Ratio (OR), Additional Risk (AR), Risk Attributable to the Population (PAR) and, finally, the Population Attributable risk Fraction (FAP). </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Results:</span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> In the comparison between the two groups (patients with events and patients without events) the risk factors with statistically significant differences were: age, Systolic Blood Pressure (SBP), BMI, cholesterol, triglycerides, glycemia and hyperinsulinemia. The ORs with the greatest impact were: blood glucose (5.1), BMI (3.3) and BPS (2.9). Linear regression analysis identified Glycemia and BMI as the only independent variables. The FAPs with the greatest impact were SBP (47.4%) and BMI (42.6%). </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Discussion and Conclusions</span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">: Our data confirm that the high incidence of stroke in Campania is particularly related to the high prevalence of obesity and hypertension. In the single patient, however, the risk factors with the greatest impact are: glycaemia BMI an SBP.</span></span>展开更多
A method based on cumulative prospect theory was proposed to solve risky multiple attribute decision making problems with Four -dimensional reference points. Considering the influence of different learning processes a...A method based on cumulative prospect theory was proposed to solve risky multiple attribute decision making problems with Four -dimensional reference points. Considering the influence of different learning processes and corresponding features on decision-making, a new reference-learning behavior is added, and a risk-based multiple-attribute decision-making method based on four-dimensional reference point cumulative prospect theory is proposed. Firstly, according to the cumulative prospect theory, the prospect value and the decision function value of the four reference points of learning, time, evaluation value and expected value are calculated respectively, and the cumulative prospect value matrix of each program dynamic is formed. Secondly,according to the WAA operalor, Maximize the stage weighting model to obtain the integrated cumulative prospect value. Finally, on the basis of this, the alternatives are sorted according to the size of the total cumulative prospect value, and compared with other methods, the validity and scientific of the proposed method are proved.展开更多
Objective:To quantitatively analyze the burden of hypertensive heart disease(HHD)in China and provide a scientific basis for prevention and control strategies.Methods:Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 databa...Objective:To quantitatively analyze the burden of hypertensive heart disease(HHD)in China and provide a scientific basis for prevention and control strategies.Methods:Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database were used to assess the disease burden,deaths,years lived with disability(YLDs),and risk factors for HHD in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2021.Results:From 1990 to 2021,HHD cases in China increased from 1.5 million to 3.9 million,with an average annual growth rate of 2.83%.Prevalence rose from 127.76/100,000 to 259.00/100,000,while age-standardized prevalence decreased by 0.68%annually.HHD deaths increased from 232,478 to 320,247,with a mortality rate rise from 19.76/100,000 to 22.56/100,000,though age-standardized mortality decreased by 2.68%annually.YLDs rose from 124,386 to 301,426,with the rate increasing by 2.20%annually,while age-standardized YLDs decreased by 0.67%annually.High sodium intake and low fruit consumption were key risk factors for HHD deaths.Deaths related to low vegetable intake decreased until 2005 and then rose,while deaths from lead exposure showed a similar pattern.Conclusion:HHD cases and prevalence increased significantly,but age-standardized prevalence and mortality rates declined,reflecting the impact of an aging population and improved health interventions.The rise in YLDs highlights the long-term impact on patients’quality of life.Key risk factors included high sodium intake and low fruit consumption,emphasizing the importance of dietary improvements in HHD prevention.HHD remains a significant public health challenge in China,requiring continuous research and targeted prevention strategies.展开更多
Rationale: Excess alcohol use (EAU) is associated with adverse TB treatment outcomes. Objective: We investigated the relationship between EAU and death among TB patients 15 years and older prescribed anti-TB treatment...Rationale: Excess alcohol use (EAU) is associated with adverse TB treatment outcomes. Objective: We investigated the relationship between EAU and death among TB patients 15 years and older prescribed anti-TB treatment in the United States. Design: Using data reported to the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System for 1997-2012, we calculated adjusted odds ratios and excess attributable risk percent for death among TB patients with reported EAU. Results: EAU was associated with death among patients younger than 65. The excess attributable risk percent for death among those with reported EAU for those younger than 65 was >35%. Conclusions: Interventions to reduce EAU in patients <65 years may reduce deaths.展开更多
Objective: To investigate the prevalence of term low birth weight (TLBW) and its risk factors. Methods: A follow-up study with 7, 872 couples was conducted from 1987 to 199o beginning from the time they got marriage l...Objective: To investigate the prevalence of term low birth weight (TLBW) and its risk factors. Methods: A follow-up study with 7, 872 couples was conducted from 1987 to 199o beginning from the time they got marriage licenses in two districts defined in Shanghai. They were interviewed in the third month and again in the fifteenth month and in the fifth to sixth year afterwards individually at home. The total follow up rate reached 98%. Couple’s background characteristics as well as the information on their general health. reproductivc history and contraceptive use etc.. were collected dynamically. All of the single live births with term delivery were Included for data analysis in this paper. Adjusted odd ratios and population attributable risk (PAR%) were computed. Results: The prevalence of TLBW in Shanghai single term live births was 2. 0% (134,/6.573), represents 54. 7% (134/245) of the total low birth weights in our sam pie. Significant social and behaviour risk factors relating with TI-BW were wife’s dissat- isfaction with marriage; low education level of husband; co-residence with parents during pregnancy; heavy housework done by the wife while being pregnant. Significant biomedical risky factors were menarche age greater than 16 years old; maternal age at delivery greater than 29 years old; maternal body mass index less than 19. 8; wife suf- fered from serious disease prior to conceiving; having pregnancy complication; gestational weight gain less than 20 % of pre-pregnancy weight; having abortion, stillbirth and fetal death history. Conclusion: TL.BW constituted over half of all low birth weights in Shanghai. Special attention should be paid to the determinants mentioned above in TLBW intervention program. Improving couples’ economic and living condition and husband ’s education at tainment, and caloric supplementation with women while being pregnant would all be particularly effective in reducing the occurrence of TLBW in Shnaghai.展开更多
Objective To estimate the lung cancer burden that may be attributable to ambient fine particulate matter （PM2.5） pollution in Guangzhou city in China from 2005 to 2013. Methods The data regarding PM2.5 exposure were...Objective To estimate the lung cancer burden that may be attributable to ambient fine particulate matter （PM2.5） pollution in Guangzhou city in China from 2005 to 2013. Methods The data regarding PM2.5 exposure were obtained from the ＆#39;Ambient air pollution exposure estimation for the Global Burden of Disease 2013＇ dataset at 0.1° ×0.1° spatial resolution. Disability-adjusted life years （DALYs） were estimated based on the information of mortality and incidence of lung cancer. Comparative risk analysis and integrated exposure-response function were used to estimate attributed disease burden. Results The population-weighted average concentration of PM2.5 was increased by 34.6% between 1990 and 2013, from 38.37 μg/m3 to 51.31 μg/m^3. The lung cancer DALYs in both men and women were increased by 36.2% from 2005 to 2013. The PM2.5 attributed lung cancer DALYs increased from 12105.0 （8181.0 for males and 3924.0 for females） in 2005 to 16489.3 （11291.7 for males and 5197.6 for females） in 2013. An average of 23.1% lung cancer burden was attributable to PM2.5 pollution in 2013. Conclusion PM2.5 has caused serious but under-appreciated public health burden in Guangzhou and the trend deteriorates. Effective strategies are needed to tackle this major public health problem.展开更多
Background Dengue fever,a mosquito-borne disease,is influenced by temperature.As global warming intensifies,the frequency of hot nights has increased.However,the relationship between hot nights and dengue transmission...Background Dengue fever,a mosquito-borne disease,is influenced by temperature.As global warming intensifies,the frequency of hot nights has increased.However,the relationship between hot nights and dengue transmission remains unclear.This study aimed to evaluate the impact of hot night exposures on dengue incidence.Methods We collected individual dengue data from Brazil’s SINAN database(2014–2021),covering 5,708,691 patients.Hot night exposures,including the average maximum nighttime temperatures,hot night excess,and hot night duration,were calculated using the ERA5-land dataset.A case-crossover design was employed to assess the association between each hot night exposure and dengue incidence using conditional logistic regression.Results The average maximum nighttime temperature,hot night excess,and hot night duration were all significantly associated with increased risk of dengue,with odds ratios(ORs)of 1.86(95%CI 1.86–1.87),1.01(95%CI 1.01–1.01),and 1.05(95%CI 1.05–1.05),respectively.The attributable risks for each hot night exposure were 14.02%(95%CI 13.49%–14.60%),27.80%(95%CI 27.33%–28.21%),and 26.95%(95%CI 26.58%–27.38%),respectively,when the exposure value was above the 90th percentile of its distribution.Conclusions Hot night exposures were associated with an increased risk of dengue in Brazil.The public health burden of dengue is likely to rise with increasing hot night exposures,especially as hot nights become more frequent worldwide.Implementation of targeted vector control strategies and improved access to cooling equipment,such as air-conditioning,may serve as important mitigation measures.展开更多
Purpose–The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of driver demographic characteristics on the driving safety involving cell phone usages.Design/methodology/approach–A total of 1,432 crashes and 19,71...Purpose–The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of driver demographic characteristics on the driving safety involving cell phone usages.Design/methodology/approach–A total of 1,432 crashes and 19,714 baselines were collected for the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 naturalistic driving research.The authors used a case-control approach to estimate the prevalence and the population attributable risk percentage.The mixed logistic regression model is used to evaluate the correlation between different driver demographic characteristics(age,driving experience or their combination)and the crash risk regarding cell phone engagements,as well as the correlation among the likelihood of the cell phone engagement during the driving,multiple driver demographic characteristics(gender,age and driving experience)and environment conditions.Findings–Senior drivers face an extremely high crash risk when distracted by cell phone during driving,but they are not involved in crashes at a large scale.On the contrary,cell phone usages account for a far larger percentage of total crashes for young drivers.Similarly,experienced drivers and experienced-middle-aged drivers seem less likely to be impacted by the cell phone while driving,and cell phone engagements are attributed to a lower percentage of total crashes for them.Furthermore,experienced,senior or male drivers are less likely to engage in cell phone-related secondary tasks while driving.Originality/value–The results provide support to guide countermeasures and vehicle design.展开更多
文摘Objective:Knee osteoarthritis is one of the important causes of disability worldwide.This study aims to analyze the disease burden of knee osteoarthritis,attributable risk factors among Chinese residents from 1990 to 2021,and predict the disease burden trend for 2035.Methods:Data related to knee osteoarthritis in China from 1990 to 2021,including the number of incident cases,incidence rate,number of prevalent cases,prevalence rate,and years lived with disability(YLDs),were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study(GBD2021)database.Joinpoint regression analysis was used to assess time trends,and the Bayesian-Age-Period-Cohort(BAPC)regression model was employed for future predictions.Results:From 1990 to 2021,the number of incident cases of knee osteoarthritis among Chinese residents increased from 3.65 million to 8.51 million,a rise of 133.16%,with an average annual increase of 3.15%.The incidence rate increased from 310.33 per 100,000 to 598.31 per 100,000,a rise of 92.80%,with an average annual increase of 2.55%.The number of prevalent cases increased from 41.04 million to 110 million,a rise of 166.97%,with an average annual increase of 3.61%.The prevalence rate increased from 3488.78 per 100,000 to 7701.69 per 100,000,a rise of 120.76%,with an average annual increase of 3.00%.The number of YLDs increased from 1.34 million to 3.55 million,a rise of 165.32%,with an average annual increase of 3.59%.The YLD rate increased from 113.86 per 100,000 to 249.81 per 100,000,a rise of 119.39%,with an average annual increase of 2.99%.High BMI was the only significant attributable risk factor,with the proportion of YLDs it caused continuing to rise.Predictions for 2035:The number of incident cases is expected to decline slightly from 5.89 million in 2022 to 5.72 million in 2035.The number of prevalent cases is expected to peak at 72.42 million in 2029 and be around 72.69 million in 2035.The number of YLDs is expected to increase year by year,from 2.35 million in 2022 to 2.35 million in 2035.Conclusion:The study reveals the increasing prevalence and disease burden of knee osteoarthritis among Chinese residents,emphasizing the importance of interventions targeting controllable risk factors.Although the prediction shows a slight decline in the number of incident cases in 2035,the number of prevalent cases and years of disability are expected to remain high,indicating the need for continued monitoring and intervention.
基金supported by the funds of Key Discipline and Specialty Foundation of Shanghai Municipal Commission of Health and Family Planningthe National Key Basic Research Program "973 project" (2015CB554000)grants from US National Institutes of Health (R37 CA070867, R01 CA82729, UM1CA173640, and UM1 CA182910)
文摘Objective： To evaluate the population attributable risks （PARs） between cigarette smoking and deaths of all causes, all cancers, lung cancer and other chronic diseases in urban Shanghai. Methods： In total, 61,480 men aged 40-74 years from 2002 to 2006 and 74,941 women aged 40-70 years from 1997 to 2000 were recruited to undergo baseline surveys in urban Shanghai, with response rates of 74.0% and 92.3%, respectively. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate relative risks （RRs） and 95% confidence intervals （95% CIs） of deaths associated with cigarette smoking. PARs and 95 % CIs for deaths were estimated from smoking exposure rates and the estimated RRs. Results： Cigarette smoking was responsible for 23.9% （95% CI： 19.4-28.3%） and 2.4% （95% Ch 1.6- 3.2%） of all deaths in men and women, respectively, in our study population. Respiratory disease had the highest PAR in men [37.5% （95% CI： 21.5-51.6%）], followed by cancer [31.3% （95% Ch 24.6-37.7%）] and cardiovascular disease （CVD） [24.1% （95% CI： 16.7-31.2%）]. While the top three PARs were 12.7% （95% CI： 6.1-19.3%）, 4.0% （95% CI： 2.4-5.6%）, and 1.1% （95% CI： 0.0-2.3%）, for respiratory disease, CVD, and cancer, respectively in women. For deaths of lung cancer, the PAR of smoking was 68.4% （95% CI： 58.2- 76.5%） in men. Conclusions： In urban Shanghai, 23.9% and 2.4% of all deaths in men and women could have been prevented if no people had smoked in the area. Effective control programs against cigarette smoking should be strongly advocated to reduce the increasing smoking-related death burden.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation(NO.12105274),China.
文摘Objective We aimed to analyze the current indoor radon level and estimate the population risk of radon-induced lung cancer in urban areas of China.Methods Using the passive monitoring method,a new survey on indoor radon concentrations was conducted in 2,875 dwellings across 31 provincial capital cities in Chinese mainland from 2018 to 2023.The attributable risk of lung cancer induced by indoor radon exposure was estimated based on the risk assessment model.Results The arithmetic mean(AM)and geometric mean(GM)of indoor radon concentrations were 65 Bq/m^(3)and 55 Bq/m^(3),respectively,with 13.6%of measured dwellings exceeding 100 Bq/m^(3)and 0.6%exceeding 300 Bq/m^(3).The estimated number of lung cancer deaths induced by indoor radon exposure was 150,795,accounting for 20.30%(95%CI:20.21%-20.49%)of the lung cancer death toll.Conclusion This study provided the most recent data on national indoor radon levels in urban areas and the attributable risk of lung cancer.These results served as an important foundation for further research on the disease burden of indoor radon exposure and radon mitigation efforts.
基金key technology project for the prevention and control of major workplace safety accidents in 2017 from the State Administration of Work Safety of China-the research on the identification and assessment technology and control system of major risks of enterprises for the prevention and control of severe accidents(Hubei-0002-2017AQ)supported by the Department of Emergency Management of Hubei Province,Wuhan 430064,China.
文摘The technological revolution has spawned a new generation of industrial systems,but it has also put forward higher requirements for safety management accuracy,timeliness,and systematicness.Risk assessment needs to evolve to address the existing and future challenges by considering the new demands and advancements in safety management.The study aims to propose a systematic and comprehensive risk assessment method to meet the needs of process system safety management.The methodology first incorporates possibility,severity,and dynamicity(PSD)to structure the“51X”evaluation indicator system,including the inherent,management,and disturbance risk factors.Subsequently,the four-tier(risk point-unit-enterprise-region)risk assessment(RA)mathematical model has been established to consider supervision needs.And in conclusion,the application of the PSD-RA method in ammonia refrigeration workshop cases and safety risk monitoring systems is presented to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed PSD-RA method in safety management.The findings show that the PSD-RA method can be well integrated with the needs of safety work informatization,which is also helpful for implementing the enterprise's safety work responsibility and the government's safety supervision responsibility.
文摘<strong>Background:</strong><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> Stroke is the second leading cause of death in the world and the third due to disability. However, there are few data available that identify the risk factors associated with it and their weight in different populations (population risk). </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Aim: </span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Contribute to the knowledge of burden risk factors in stroke </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">in a large cohort of Southern Italy</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">. </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Methods</span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">: The data refer to a randomized Campania cohort of 1200 subjects (35</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> </span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">74 years) enrolled in 2008-09. Ten years later (2018-19) they were re-evaluated. We analyzed data from 32 patients who reported a cerebrovascular event (stroke or TIA) with the event-free group of subjects (804 subjects: 378 men and 426 women). We evaluated: absolute risk, Odds Ratio (OR), Additional Risk (AR), Risk Attributable to the Population (PAR) and, finally, the Population Attributable risk Fraction (FAP). </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Results:</span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> In the comparison between the two groups (patients with events and patients without events) the risk factors with statistically significant differences were: age, Systolic Blood Pressure (SBP), BMI, cholesterol, triglycerides, glycemia and hyperinsulinemia. The ORs with the greatest impact were: blood glucose (5.1), BMI (3.3) and BPS (2.9). Linear regression analysis identified Glycemia and BMI as the only independent variables. The FAPs with the greatest impact were SBP (47.4%) and BMI (42.6%). </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Discussion and Conclusions</span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">: Our data confirm that the high incidence of stroke in Campania is particularly related to the high prevalence of obesity and hypertension. In the single patient, however, the risk factors with the greatest impact are: glycaemia BMI an SBP.</span></span>
文摘A method based on cumulative prospect theory was proposed to solve risky multiple attribute decision making problems with Four -dimensional reference points. Considering the influence of different learning processes and corresponding features on decision-making, a new reference-learning behavior is added, and a risk-based multiple-attribute decision-making method based on four-dimensional reference point cumulative prospect theory is proposed. Firstly, according to the cumulative prospect theory, the prospect value and the decision function value of the four reference points of learning, time, evaluation value and expected value are calculated respectively, and the cumulative prospect value matrix of each program dynamic is formed. Secondly,according to the WAA operalor, Maximize the stage weighting model to obtain the integrated cumulative prospect value. Finally, on the basis of this, the alternatives are sorted according to the size of the total cumulative prospect value, and compared with other methods, the validity and scientific of the proposed method are proved.
文摘Objective:To quantitatively analyze the burden of hypertensive heart disease(HHD)in China and provide a scientific basis for prevention and control strategies.Methods:Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database were used to assess the disease burden,deaths,years lived with disability(YLDs),and risk factors for HHD in the Chinese population from 1990 to 2021.Results:From 1990 to 2021,HHD cases in China increased from 1.5 million to 3.9 million,with an average annual growth rate of 2.83%.Prevalence rose from 127.76/100,000 to 259.00/100,000,while age-standardized prevalence decreased by 0.68%annually.HHD deaths increased from 232,478 to 320,247,with a mortality rate rise from 19.76/100,000 to 22.56/100,000,though age-standardized mortality decreased by 2.68%annually.YLDs rose from 124,386 to 301,426,with the rate increasing by 2.20%annually,while age-standardized YLDs decreased by 0.67%annually.High sodium intake and low fruit consumption were key risk factors for HHD deaths.Deaths related to low vegetable intake decreased until 2005 and then rose,while deaths from lead exposure showed a similar pattern.Conclusion:HHD cases and prevalence increased significantly,but age-standardized prevalence and mortality rates declined,reflecting the impact of an aging population and improved health interventions.The rise in YLDs highlights the long-term impact on patients’quality of life.Key risk factors included high sodium intake and low fruit consumption,emphasizing the importance of dietary improvements in HHD prevention.HHD remains a significant public health challenge in China,requiring continuous research and targeted prevention strategies.
文摘Rationale: Excess alcohol use (EAU) is associated with adverse TB treatment outcomes. Objective: We investigated the relationship between EAU and death among TB patients 15 years and older prescribed anti-TB treatment in the United States. Design: Using data reported to the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System for 1997-2012, we calculated adjusted odds ratios and excess attributable risk percent for death among TB patients with reported EAU. Results: EAU was associated with death among patients younger than 65. The excess attributable risk percent for death among those with reported EAU for those younger than 65 was >35%. Conclusions: Interventions to reduce EAU in patients <65 years may reduce deaths.
文摘Objective: To investigate the prevalence of term low birth weight (TLBW) and its risk factors. Methods: A follow-up study with 7, 872 couples was conducted from 1987 to 199o beginning from the time they got marriage licenses in two districts defined in Shanghai. They were interviewed in the third month and again in the fifteenth month and in the fifth to sixth year afterwards individually at home. The total follow up rate reached 98%. Couple’s background characteristics as well as the information on their general health. reproductivc history and contraceptive use etc.. were collected dynamically. All of the single live births with term delivery were Included for data analysis in this paper. Adjusted odd ratios and population attributable risk (PAR%) were computed. Results: The prevalence of TLBW in Shanghai single term live births was 2. 0% (134,/6.573), represents 54. 7% (134/245) of the total low birth weights in our sam pie. Significant social and behaviour risk factors relating with TI-BW were wife’s dissat- isfaction with marriage; low education level of husband; co-residence with parents during pregnancy; heavy housework done by the wife while being pregnant. Significant biomedical risky factors were menarche age greater than 16 years old; maternal age at delivery greater than 29 years old; maternal body mass index less than 19. 8; wife suf- fered from serious disease prior to conceiving; having pregnancy complication; gestational weight gain less than 20 % of pre-pregnancy weight; having abortion, stillbirth and fetal death history. Conclusion: TL.BW constituted over half of all low birth weights in Shanghai. Special attention should be paid to the determinants mentioned above in TLBW intervention program. Improving couples’ economic and living condition and husband ’s education at tainment, and caloric supplementation with women while being pregnant would all be particularly effective in reducing the occurrence of TLBW in Shnaghai.
基金supported by the Centre for Health Statistics Information,National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People’s Republic of China
文摘Objective To estimate the lung cancer burden that may be attributable to ambient fine particulate matter （PM2.5） pollution in Guangzhou city in China from 2005 to 2013. Methods The data regarding PM2.5 exposure were obtained from the ＆#39;Ambient air pollution exposure estimation for the Global Burden of Disease 2013＇ dataset at 0.1° ×0.1° spatial resolution. Disability-adjusted life years （DALYs） were estimated based on the information of mortality and incidence of lung cancer. Comparative risk analysis and integrated exposure-response function were used to estimate attributed disease burden. Results The population-weighted average concentration of PM2.5 was increased by 34.6% between 1990 and 2013, from 38.37 μg/m3 to 51.31 μg/m^3. The lung cancer DALYs in both men and women were increased by 36.2% from 2005 to 2013. The PM2.5 attributed lung cancer DALYs increased from 12105.0 （8181.0 for males and 3924.0 for females） in 2005 to 16489.3 （11291.7 for males and 5197.6 for females） in 2013. An average of 23.1% lung cancer burden was attributable to PM2.5 pollution in 2013. Conclusion PM2.5 has caused serious but under-appreciated public health burden in Guangzhou and the trend deteriorates. Effective strategies are needed to tackle this major public health problem.
文摘Background Dengue fever,a mosquito-borne disease,is influenced by temperature.As global warming intensifies,the frequency of hot nights has increased.However,the relationship between hot nights and dengue transmission remains unclear.This study aimed to evaluate the impact of hot night exposures on dengue incidence.Methods We collected individual dengue data from Brazil’s SINAN database(2014–2021),covering 5,708,691 patients.Hot night exposures,including the average maximum nighttime temperatures,hot night excess,and hot night duration,were calculated using the ERA5-land dataset.A case-crossover design was employed to assess the association between each hot night exposure and dengue incidence using conditional logistic regression.Results The average maximum nighttime temperature,hot night excess,and hot night duration were all significantly associated with increased risk of dengue,with odds ratios(ORs)of 1.86(95%CI 1.86–1.87),1.01(95%CI 1.01–1.01),and 1.05(95%CI 1.05–1.05),respectively.The attributable risks for each hot night exposure were 14.02%(95%CI 13.49%–14.60%),27.80%(95%CI 27.33%–28.21%),and 26.95%(95%CI 26.58%–27.38%),respectively,when the exposure value was above the 90th percentile of its distribution.Conclusions Hot night exposures were associated with an increased risk of dengue in Brazil.The public health burden of dengue is likely to rise with increasing hot night exposures,especially as hot nights become more frequent worldwide.Implementation of targeted vector control strategies and improved access to cooling equipment,such as air-conditioning,may serve as important mitigation measures.
基金supported in part by the Joint Laboratory for Internet of Vehicles,Ministry of Education-China Mobile Communications Corporation under Grant ICV-KF2018-01in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China underGrant 51975194 and 51905161.
文摘Purpose–The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of driver demographic characteristics on the driving safety involving cell phone usages.Design/methodology/approach–A total of 1,432 crashes and 19,714 baselines were collected for the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 naturalistic driving research.The authors used a case-control approach to estimate the prevalence and the population attributable risk percentage.The mixed logistic regression model is used to evaluate the correlation between different driver demographic characteristics(age,driving experience or their combination)and the crash risk regarding cell phone engagements,as well as the correlation among the likelihood of the cell phone engagement during the driving,multiple driver demographic characteristics(gender,age and driving experience)and environment conditions.Findings–Senior drivers face an extremely high crash risk when distracted by cell phone during driving,but they are not involved in crashes at a large scale.On the contrary,cell phone usages account for a far larger percentage of total crashes for young drivers.Similarly,experienced drivers and experienced-middle-aged drivers seem less likely to be impacted by the cell phone while driving,and cell phone engagements are attributed to a lower percentage of total crashes for them.Furthermore,experienced,senior or male drivers are less likely to engage in cell phone-related secondary tasks while driving.Originality/value–The results provide support to guide countermeasures and vehicle design.
