This study examines a comprehensive set of 30 cross-sectional anomalies in the Chinese A-share market to investigate whether incorporating investor sentiment as conditioning information enhances the explanatory power ...This study examines a comprehensive set of 30 cross-sectional anomalies in the Chinese A-share market to investigate whether incorporating investor sentiment as conditioning information enhances the explanatory power of asset pricing models.Utilizing a long–short portfolio strategy and Fama–MacBeth cross-sectional regression,we find that trading-based anomalies outnumber accounting-based anomalies in the Chinese market.Our results demonstrate that conditional models significantly outperform their unconditional counterparts.Notably,investor sentiment is crucial for capturing the size anomaly when excluding observations from the COVID-19 pandemic period.Additionally,it substantially improves the ability of conditional Fama–French three-factor models to capture individual anomalies and enhances the return–prediction accuracy of conditional CAPMs.We suggest further investigating high-frequency investor sentiment-based conditional models to anticipate stock price fluctuations during extraordinary public health events.展开更多
This paper investigates testable restrictions on the time-series behavior of consumption and asset returns implied by a representative agent model with the spirit of capitalism in which intertemporal preference is rep...This paper investigates testable restrictions on the time-series behavior of consumption and asset returns implied by a representative agent model with the spirit of capitalism in which intertemporal preference is represented by a utility function that generalizes conventional,time-additive,expected utility.In the recursive structure of preference,the author examines the implication for cosumptions,portfolio holdings,and stock-market prices when investors accumulate wealth not only for the sake of consumption but also for wealth-induced social status.When investors care about relative social status,the propensity to consume and risk-taking behavior will depend on social standards,and stock prices will be volatible.Hence,the spirit of capitalism seems to be a driving force behind stock-market volatility and economic growth.Because the elasticity df substitution and the coefficient of relative risk aversion are independent and the spirit of capitalism is introduced,the equity premium puzzle can be partially explained in the model.展开更多
Testing the validity of the conditional capital asset pricing model （CAPM） is a puzzle in the finance literature. Lewellen and Nagel[14] find that the variation in betas and in the equity premium would have to be im...Testing the validity of the conditional capital asset pricing model （CAPM） is a puzzle in the finance literature. Lewellen and Nagel[14] find that the variation in betas and in the equity premium would have to be implausibly large to explain important asset-pricing anomalies. Unfortunately, they do not provide a rigorous test statistic. Based on a simulation study, the method proposed in Lewellen and Nagel[14] tends to reject the null too frequently. We develop a new test procedure and derive its limiting distribution under the null hypothesis. Also, we provide a Bootstrap approach to the testing procedure to gain a good finite sample performance. Both simulations and empirical studies show that our test is necessary for making correct inferences with the conditional CAPM.展开更多
The paper combines Tobin's Q theory of real investment with the capital asset pricing model to produce a new and relatively simple procedure for the valuation of real assets using the income approach. Applications...The paper combines Tobin's Q theory of real investment with the capital asset pricing model to produce a new and relatively simple procedure for the valuation of real assets using the income approach. Applications of the new method are provided.展开更多
This paper estimates proxy specifications of a five-factor asset pricing model to produce stylized facts of the Saudi capital market and test an arbitrage pricing theory （APT） model. The data set is the panel of 20 ...This paper estimates proxy specifications of a five-factor asset pricing model to produce stylized facts of the Saudi capital market and test an arbitrage pricing theory （APT） model. The data set is the panel of 20 most actively traded firms, excluding firms with negative book value of equity. The contribution to the extant literature is three-fold： （l） organizing Saudi market data based on beta and firm-specific fundamentals, namely, growth, value, accounting earnings, and equity investments; （2） conducting a parsimony analysis within the theoretical framework of APT; and （3） quantifying the information risk facing the marginal investor by decomposing earnings into cash flows and accruals and investigating respective loadings in an unrestricted version of the parsimonious specification. Proxy asset pricing specifications, though intuitively appealing, are scant due to lack of theoretical frameworks and misguided significance tests of factor loadings. Throughout, this issue is addressed by keeping the empirical analysis under describing market facts and testing an APT model. The study concludes with a significant empirical explanation that specifies average returns in terms of the covariance risk and accounting accruals.展开更多
Discussing results in asset pricing and efficient portfolio allocation,we show that mixed success and errors in these results often follow from a lack of information about the asset return distribution and wrong assum...Discussing results in asset pricing and efficient portfolio allocation,we show that mixed success and errors in these results often follow from a lack of information about the asset return distribution and wrong assumptions about its properties.Some mistakes in asset pricing come from the assumption of symmetry in return distributions.Some errors in efficient portfolio allocation follow from Markowitz’s approach when applying it to portfolio optimization of skewed asset returns.The Extended Merton model(EMM),generating skewed return distributions,demonstrates that(i)in skewed asset returns,the variance is not an adequate measure of risks and(ii)positive skewness in the asset returns comes together with a high default probability.Thus,the maximization of the mean portfolio returns and skewness with controlled variance used in mainstream papers can critically increase portfolio risks.We present the new settings of the optimal portfolio allocation problem leading to less risky efficient portfolios than the solutions suggested in all previous papers.展开更多
We prove an L∞ version of the Yan theorem and deduce from it a necessary condition for the absence of free lunches in a model of financial markets, in which asset prices are a continuous R^d valued process and only s...We prove an L∞ version of the Yan theorem and deduce from it a necessary condition for the absence of free lunches in a model of financial markets, in which asset prices are a continuous R^d valued process and only simple investment strategies are admissible. Our proof is based on a new separation theorem for convex sets of finitely additive measures.展开更多
Motivated by financial and empirical arguments and in order to introduce a more flexible methodology of pricing,we provide a new approach to asset pricing based on Backward Volterra equations.The approach relies on an...Motivated by financial and empirical arguments and in order to introduce a more flexible methodology of pricing,we provide a new approach to asset pricing based on Backward Volterra equations.The approach relies on an arbitrage-free and incomplete market setting in continuous time by choosing non-unique pricing measures depending either on the time of evaluation or on the maturity of payoffs.We show that in the latter case the dynamics can be captured by a time-delayed backward stochastic Volterra integral equation here introduced which,to the best of our knowledge,has not yet been studied.We then prove an existence and uniqueness result for time-delayed backward stochastic Volterra integral equations.Finally,we present a Lucas-type consumption-based asset pricing model that justifies the emergence of stochastic discount factors matching the term structure of Sharpe ratios.展开更多
The pricing theories of capital assets are the principal part in the modern financial theories. Presently, the capital asset pricing model and the arbitrage pricing theory, including their evolutional forms, all don＇...The pricing theories of capital assets are the principal part in the modern financial theories. Presently, the capital asset pricing model and the arbitrage pricing theory, including their evolutional forms, all don＇t embody the premium of non-system risks and non-factor risks. This paper analyses the risk reward of traditional capital assets pricing models, revises the traditional capital assets pricing models, and advances the revised models of capital assets pricing theories basing on full-risk reward.展开更多
The aim of this paper is to test the ability of conditional and unconditional capital asset pricing models （CAPMs） and to explain emerging markets returns in terms of their integration into the international market....The aim of this paper is to test the ability of conditional and unconditional capital asset pricing models （CAPMs） and to explain emerging markets returns in terms of their integration into the international market. The authors use data on five developed countries and five emerging countries as well as data on the Tunis Stock Exchange （TSE） after the reforms. The results show that the correlations between emerging markets returns and developed markets returns are very low and sometimes negative. Conditional arbitrage pricing theory （APT） as well as conditional CAPM has low predictive power for emerging markets than that for developed markets. Finally, following the financial reforms, Tunisian financial markets have became more and more integrated into the international market （excess returns and unconditional beta consistent with predictions）. However, conditional APT does not accurately explain Tunisian market returns. This study confirms the unavailability of an accurate modelling technique of the TSE structure.展开更多
This paper explores the performances of some frequently used asset pricing factors and their investment implications in Chinese stock market. It is noted that CAPM model can hardly be applied to Chinese market as port...This paper explores the performances of some frequently used asset pricing factors and their investment implications in Chinese stock market. It is noted that CAPM model can hardly be applied to Chinese market as portfolios based on 13 values cannot generate high return against high risk. However, two factors （Size and B/M） from Fama-French model （1992） deliver better performances. Such findings indicate that models based on theoretical analysis are somewhat away from practice, and those risk factors from empirical studies are more applicable though not based on theories. Therefore, further researches are desirable concerning asset pricing factors.展开更多
This study explores the influence of investor behavior and market sentiment on asset pricing mechanisms in both developed and emerging market economies.By comparing markets such as the United States,Japan,Brazil,and I...This study explores the influence of investor behavior and market sentiment on asset pricing mechanisms in both developed and emerging market economies.By comparing markets such as the United States,Japan,Brazil,and India,the research investigates how psychological factors,including overconfidence,loss aversion,and sentiment,affect asset returns and market volatility.Data spanning 10 years(2010-2020)is analyzed,incorporating traditional financial indicators,macroeconomic factors,and sentiment data derived from social media,news platforms,and sentiment indices.The empirical findings reveal significant heterogeneity across markets.In emerging markets,investor sentiment demonstrates a more pronounced effect on asset pricing,with sentiment fluctuations contributing significantly to volatility.In contrast,developed markets like the U.S.and Japan exhibit more stability,with investor behavior driven largely by fundamentals.A new sentiment resonance model is developed to capture the spillover effect of sentiment from developed to emerging markets,while behavioral finance models are enhanced to account for the emotional transmission between investor decisions and asset prices.The study suggests that incorporating behavioral insights into traditional asset pricing models can improve their explanatory power,particularly in emerging markets where investor sentiment plays a pivotal role in shaping asset prices.展开更多
The paper asserts that the misperceptions of noise traders are a behavioral bias characterized by overreactions. By introducing the overreaction coefficient, we provide an explanation for the volatility of asset price...The paper asserts that the misperceptions of noise traders are a behavioral bias characterized by overreactions. By introducing the overreaction coefficient, we provide an explanation for the volatility of asset prices and bubbles in a simplified framework that is similar to the DSSW （1990a） model. When the underlying asset is involved with a fundamental shock, noise traders will generally overreact to it, which creates an ＂overreaction risk＂. This kind of risk will make the asset prices more volatile, and even make up asset bubbles. Therefore, asset bubbles can be regarded as a psychological phenomenon, and are actually the results of the psychological changing process of noise traders.展开更多
Under the assumption that the dynamic assets price follows the variance gamma process, we establish a new bilateral pricing model of interest rate swap by integrating the reduced form model for swap pricing and the st...Under the assumption that the dynamic assets price follows the variance gamma process, we establish a new bilateral pricing model of interest rate swap by integrating the reduced form model for swap pricing and the structural model for default risk measurement.Our pricing model preserves the simplicity of the reduced form model and also considers the dynamic evolution of the counterparty assets price by incorporating with the structural model for default risk measurement. We divide the swap pricing framework into two parts, simplifying the pricing model relatively. Simulation results show that, for a one year interest rate swap, a bond spread of one hundred basis points implies a swap credit spread about 0.1054 basis point.展开更多
This paper develops the CIR model. In this model, labor is introduced in the production function and leisure in the direct utility function. We examine how the trade-off between labor and leisure would affect asset pr...This paper develops the CIR model. In this model, labor is introduced in the production function and leisure in the direct utility function. We examine how the trade-off between labor and leisure would affect asset prices and derive a familiar principal partial differential equation which asset prices must satisfy. The solution of this equation gives the equilibrium price of any asset in terms of the underlying real variables in economy.展开更多
Mining right asset securitization is a market financing pattern for mineral resources, and it is a creative application of financial asset securitization. Nowadays, because of world energy price decline, the world ene...Mining right asset securitization is a market financing pattern for mineral resources, and it is a creative application of financial asset securitization. Nowadays, because of world energy price decline, the world energy market is facing weak investment and financing sharply under pressure. Under this background, this paper aims at briefly commenting on the content, processes and impact of mining right asset securitization, understanding the international mining right asset securitization specific practices, and then combining the situation of China(Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone so as to give advice for the development of mining right asset securitization in China. For instance, mineral mining rights and expenses system design are not clear, so the mineral values do not reflect their true costs and the need to speed up market credit system construction.展开更多
This article analyzes the predictability of market betas concerning cryptocurrency assets and evaluates the efficiency of beta-hedged,market-neutral portfolios.We forecast 1-year-ahead market betas using various estim...This article analyzes the predictability of market betas concerning cryptocurrency assets and evaluates the efficiency of beta-hedged,market-neutral portfolios.We forecast 1-year-ahead market betas using various estimating methods,including ordinary least squares(OLS)and Vasicek’s Bayesian shrinkage estimator,and assess their impact on portfolio variance reduction across cryptomarket indices.Our findings indicate that while standard OLS betas explain significantly less of the variation in future betas for cryptoassets compared to US stocks,slope winsorization and Bayesian shrinkage improve prediction accuracy.The results suggest that beta-hedged portfolios reduce variance for approximately 17%of the universe,with the Broad Digital Market Index demonstrating the best hedging efficiency.These findings underscore the significant challenges of developing effective hedging strategies in the cryptocurrency market,emphasizing the importance of idiosyncratic risk in crypto returns and the need for appropriate market index representation.展开更多
Through the Economic-Value-Added(EVA)valuation model,the expected market value of equity can be determined by adding the book value of equity with the present value of expected EVAs under the assumption of constant re...Through the Economic-Value-Added(EVA)valuation model,the expected market value of equity can be determined by adding the book value of equity with the present value of expected EVAs under the assumption of constant required return and constant return on equity.The equation of EVA valuation model has taken its shape under the assumption of constant required return and constant return on equity.However,a large body of empirical evidence indicates that required rate of return never remain constant.The EVA-valuation model formulated under constant required return cannot be implemented under the scenario of changing required return.In this study,we explored whether the EVA valuation model could be implemented under changing required return by making any changes in the model and found that it could be implemented under the scenario of changing required return by replacing the book value of the equity of the existing model with the present value of required earnings or normal market earnings.We further examined whether the explanatory ability of the EVA valuation model under the assumption of changing required return is better than that of the valuation model under the assumption of constant required return.Relative information content analyses were conducted by considering sample of the intrinsic value of equities determined by valuation models and the market value of equities of 69 large-cap,88 mid-cap,and 79 small-cap companies.The results showed that the EVA-based valuation model with changing normal market return outperformed the EVA-based valuation model with constant required return.展开更多
基金financially supported by:National Natural Science Foundation of China(72261002,72141304)Youth Foundation for Humanities and Social Sciences Research of the Ministry of Education(22YJC790190)+1 种基金National Key Research and Development Program of China(2022YFC3303304)Student Research Program of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics(2022ZXS).
文摘This study examines a comprehensive set of 30 cross-sectional anomalies in the Chinese A-share market to investigate whether incorporating investor sentiment as conditioning information enhances the explanatory power of asset pricing models.Utilizing a long–short portfolio strategy and Fama–MacBeth cross-sectional regression,we find that trading-based anomalies outnumber accounting-based anomalies in the Chinese market.Our results demonstrate that conditional models significantly outperform their unconditional counterparts.Notably,investor sentiment is crucial for capturing the size anomaly when excluding observations from the COVID-19 pandemic period.Additionally,it substantially improves the ability of conditional Fama–French three-factor models to capture individual anomalies and enhances the return–prediction accuracy of conditional CAPMs.We suggest further investigating high-frequency investor sentiment-based conditional models to anticipate stock price fluctuations during extraordinary public health events.
文摘This paper investigates testable restrictions on the time-series behavior of consumption and asset returns implied by a representative agent model with the spirit of capitalism in which intertemporal preference is represented by a utility function that generalizes conventional,time-additive,expected utility.In the recursive structure of preference,the author examines the implication for cosumptions,portfolio holdings,and stock-market prices when investors accumulate wealth not only for the sake of consumption but also for wealth-induced social status.When investors care about relative social status,the propensity to consume and risk-taking behavior will depend on social standards,and stock prices will be volatible.Hence,the spirit of capitalism seems to be a driving force behind stock-market volatility and economic growth.Because the elasticity df substitution and the coefficient of relative risk aversion are independent and the spirit of capitalism is introduced,the equity premium puzzle can be partially explained in the model.
基金the National Nature Science Foundation of China(71131008(Key Project),70871003,70971113)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2013221022)+1 种基金the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province(2011J01384)the Natural Science Foundation of China(71301135,71203189,71131008)
文摘Testing the validity of the conditional capital asset pricing model （CAPM） is a puzzle in the finance literature. Lewellen and Nagel[14] find that the variation in betas and in the equity premium would have to be implausibly large to explain important asset-pricing anomalies. Unfortunately, they do not provide a rigorous test statistic. Based on a simulation study, the method proposed in Lewellen and Nagel[14] tends to reject the null too frequently. We develop a new test procedure and derive its limiting distribution under the null hypothesis. Also, we provide a Bootstrap approach to the testing procedure to gain a good finite sample performance. Both simulations and empirical studies show that our test is necessary for making correct inferences with the conditional CAPM.
文摘The paper combines Tobin's Q theory of real investment with the capital asset pricing model to produce a new and relatively simple procedure for the valuation of real assets using the income approach. Applications of the new method are provided.
文摘This paper estimates proxy specifications of a five-factor asset pricing model to produce stylized facts of the Saudi capital market and test an arbitrage pricing theory （APT） model. The data set is the panel of 20 most actively traded firms, excluding firms with negative book value of equity. The contribution to the extant literature is three-fold： （l） organizing Saudi market data based on beta and firm-specific fundamentals, namely, growth, value, accounting earnings, and equity investments; （2） conducting a parsimony analysis within the theoretical framework of APT; and （3） quantifying the information risk facing the marginal investor by decomposing earnings into cash flows and accruals and investigating respective loadings in an unrestricted version of the parsimonious specification. Proxy asset pricing specifications, though intuitively appealing, are scant due to lack of theoretical frameworks and misguided significance tests of factor loadings. Throughout, this issue is addressed by keeping the empirical analysis under describing market facts and testing an APT model. The study concludes with a significant empirical explanation that specifies average returns in terms of the covariance risk and accounting accruals.
文摘Discussing results in asset pricing and efficient portfolio allocation,we show that mixed success and errors in these results often follow from a lack of information about the asset return distribution and wrong assumptions about its properties.Some mistakes in asset pricing come from the assumption of symmetry in return distributions.Some errors in efficient portfolio allocation follow from Markowitz’s approach when applying it to portfolio optimization of skewed asset returns.The Extended Merton model(EMM),generating skewed return distributions,demonstrates that(i)in skewed asset returns,the variance is not an adequate measure of risks and(ii)positive skewness in the asset returns comes together with a high default probability.Thus,the maximization of the mean portfolio returns and skewness with controlled variance used in mainstream papers can critically increase portfolio risks.We present the new settings of the optimal portfolio allocation problem leading to less risky efficient portfolios than the solutions suggested in all previous papers.
文摘We prove an L∞ version of the Yan theorem and deduce from it a necessary condition for the absence of free lunches in a model of financial markets, in which asset prices are a continuous R^d valued process and only simple investment strategies are admissible. Our proof is based on a new separation theorem for convex sets of finitely additive measures.
文摘Motivated by financial and empirical arguments and in order to introduce a more flexible methodology of pricing,we provide a new approach to asset pricing based on Backward Volterra equations.The approach relies on an arbitrage-free and incomplete market setting in continuous time by choosing non-unique pricing measures depending either on the time of evaluation or on the maturity of payoffs.We show that in the latter case the dynamics can be captured by a time-delayed backward stochastic Volterra integral equation here introduced which,to the best of our knowledge,has not yet been studied.We then prove an existence and uniqueness result for time-delayed backward stochastic Volterra integral equations.Finally,we present a Lucas-type consumption-based asset pricing model that justifies the emergence of stochastic discount factors matching the term structure of Sharpe ratios.
文摘The pricing theories of capital assets are the principal part in the modern financial theories. Presently, the capital asset pricing model and the arbitrage pricing theory, including their evolutional forms, all don＇t embody the premium of non-system risks and non-factor risks. This paper analyses the risk reward of traditional capital assets pricing models, revises the traditional capital assets pricing models, and advances the revised models of capital assets pricing theories basing on full-risk reward.
文摘The aim of this paper is to test the ability of conditional and unconditional capital asset pricing models （CAPMs） and to explain emerging markets returns in terms of their integration into the international market. The authors use data on five developed countries and five emerging countries as well as data on the Tunis Stock Exchange （TSE） after the reforms. The results show that the correlations between emerging markets returns and developed markets returns are very low and sometimes negative. Conditional arbitrage pricing theory （APT） as well as conditional CAPM has low predictive power for emerging markets than that for developed markets. Finally, following the financial reforms, Tunisian financial markets have became more and more integrated into the international market （excess returns and unconditional beta consistent with predictions）. However, conditional APT does not accurately explain Tunisian market returns. This study confirms the unavailability of an accurate modelling technique of the TSE structure.
文摘This paper explores the performances of some frequently used asset pricing factors and their investment implications in Chinese stock market. It is noted that CAPM model can hardly be applied to Chinese market as portfolios based on 13 values cannot generate high return against high risk. However, two factors （Size and B/M） from Fama-French model （1992） deliver better performances. Such findings indicate that models based on theoretical analysis are somewhat away from practice, and those risk factors from empirical studies are more applicable though not based on theories. Therefore, further researches are desirable concerning asset pricing factors.
文摘This study explores the influence of investor behavior and market sentiment on asset pricing mechanisms in both developed and emerging market economies.By comparing markets such as the United States,Japan,Brazil,and India,the research investigates how psychological factors,including overconfidence,loss aversion,and sentiment,affect asset returns and market volatility.Data spanning 10 years(2010-2020)is analyzed,incorporating traditional financial indicators,macroeconomic factors,and sentiment data derived from social media,news platforms,and sentiment indices.The empirical findings reveal significant heterogeneity across markets.In emerging markets,investor sentiment demonstrates a more pronounced effect on asset pricing,with sentiment fluctuations contributing significantly to volatility.In contrast,developed markets like the U.S.and Japan exhibit more stability,with investor behavior driven largely by fundamentals.A new sentiment resonance model is developed to capture the spillover effect of sentiment from developed to emerging markets,while behavioral finance models are enhanced to account for the emotional transmission between investor decisions and asset prices.The study suggests that incorporating behavioral insights into traditional asset pricing models can improve their explanatory power,particularly in emerging markets where investor sentiment plays a pivotal role in shaping asset prices.
文摘The paper asserts that the misperceptions of noise traders are a behavioral bias characterized by overreactions. By introducing the overreaction coefficient, we provide an explanation for the volatility of asset prices and bubbles in a simplified framework that is similar to the DSSW （1990a） model. When the underlying asset is involved with a fundamental shock, noise traders will generally overreact to it, which creates an ＂overreaction risk＂. This kind of risk will make the asset prices more volatile, and even make up asset bubbles. Therefore, asset bubbles can be regarded as a psychological phenomenon, and are actually the results of the psychological changing process of noise traders.
文摘Under the assumption that the dynamic assets price follows the variance gamma process, we establish a new bilateral pricing model of interest rate swap by integrating the reduced form model for swap pricing and the structural model for default risk measurement.Our pricing model preserves the simplicity of the reduced form model and also considers the dynamic evolution of the counterparty assets price by incorporating with the structural model for default risk measurement. We divide the swap pricing framework into two parts, simplifying the pricing model relatively. Simulation results show that, for a one year interest rate swap, a bond spread of one hundred basis points implies a swap credit spread about 0.1054 basis point.
文摘This paper develops the CIR model. In this model, labor is introduced in the production function and leisure in the direct utility function. We examine how the trade-off between labor and leisure would affect asset prices and derive a familiar principal partial differential equation which asset prices must satisfy. The solution of this equation gives the equilibrium price of any asset in terms of the underlying real variables in economy.
基金the Key Research Project of Shanxi Provincial Federation of Social Sciences(No.SSKLZDKT2014043)
文摘Mining right asset securitization is a market financing pattern for mineral resources, and it is a creative application of financial asset securitization. Nowadays, because of world energy price decline, the world energy market is facing weak investment and financing sharply under pressure. Under this background, this paper aims at briefly commenting on the content, processes and impact of mining right asset securitization, understanding the international mining right asset securitization specific practices, and then combining the situation of China(Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone so as to give advice for the development of mining right asset securitization in China. For instance, mineral mining rights and expenses system design are not clear, so the mineral values do not reflect their true costs and the need to speed up market credit system construction.
基金financial support from the Czech Science Foundation under the project`Deep dive into decentralized finance:Market microstructure,and behavioral and psychological patterns’[Grant No.23-06606S]supported by Charles University Research Centre program No.24/SSH/020+1 种基金the Cooperatio Program at Charles University,research area Economicsfinancial support from the Charles University Specific University Research scheme[Grant No.SVV 260843].
文摘This article analyzes the predictability of market betas concerning cryptocurrency assets and evaluates the efficiency of beta-hedged,market-neutral portfolios.We forecast 1-year-ahead market betas using various estimating methods,including ordinary least squares(OLS)and Vasicek’s Bayesian shrinkage estimator,and assess their impact on portfolio variance reduction across cryptomarket indices.Our findings indicate that while standard OLS betas explain significantly less of the variation in future betas for cryptoassets compared to US stocks,slope winsorization and Bayesian shrinkage improve prediction accuracy.The results suggest that beta-hedged portfolios reduce variance for approximately 17%of the universe,with the Broad Digital Market Index demonstrating the best hedging efficiency.These findings underscore the significant challenges of developing effective hedging strategies in the cryptocurrency market,emphasizing the importance of idiosyncratic risk in crypto returns and the need for appropriate market index representation.
文摘Through the Economic-Value-Added(EVA)valuation model,the expected market value of equity can be determined by adding the book value of equity with the present value of expected EVAs under the assumption of constant required return and constant return on equity.The equation of EVA valuation model has taken its shape under the assumption of constant required return and constant return on equity.However,a large body of empirical evidence indicates that required rate of return never remain constant.The EVA-valuation model formulated under constant required return cannot be implemented under the scenario of changing required return.In this study,we explored whether the EVA valuation model could be implemented under changing required return by making any changes in the model and found that it could be implemented under the scenario of changing required return by replacing the book value of the equity of the existing model with the present value of required earnings or normal market earnings.We further examined whether the explanatory ability of the EVA valuation model under the assumption of changing required return is better than that of the valuation model under the assumption of constant required return.Relative information content analyses were conducted by considering sample of the intrinsic value of equities determined by valuation models and the market value of equities of 69 large-cap,88 mid-cap,and 79 small-cap companies.The results showed that the EVA-based valuation model with changing normal market return outperformed the EVA-based valuation model with constant required return.
