The existence of a hybrid relationship connecting departure delay and resulting en-route conflicts remains a significant gap in the air transportation literature.This paper aims to establish a hybrid relationship to q...The existence of a hybrid relationship connecting departure delay and resulting en-route conflicts remains a significant gap in the air transportation literature.This paper aims to establish a hybrid relationship to quantify the impact of departure delays on both the probability of en-route conflicts and the number of such conflicts.The proposed relationship is modelled using a binomial logistic regression framework,where the dependent variable,referred to as the conflict outcome at an en-route waypoint,is binary.It takes one of two possible levels:Conflict or No Conflict.The independent variables in the model are departure delay and the number of waypoints crossed since take-off.By utilising the logistic regression equation and assuming a binomial distribution for the number of conflicts,the model computes the expected number of conflicts at any given en-route waypoint.The logistic regression model parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood estimation,utilising data obtained from the Flight Data Processing System at Anna International Airport,Chennai,India.The relationship is then validated for multiple scenarios.Results and findings reinforce the hypothesised relationship,indicating an increase in delay and the number of waypoints crossed corresponds to higher conflict probabilities.Moreover,the impact of delay on conflict likelihood increases with an increase in the number of waypoints crossed.The hybrid relationship demonstrates flexibility and sufficient generalizability to account for multi-airport delay scenarios.Validation tests do not show any statistically significant difference between the observed conflict counts and the expected values predicted by the proposed relationship.Further post-estimate analyses confirm the robustness and stability of the relationship parameters.The primary recommendations hint towards the potential integration of this relationship into system-level delay management frameworks,encompassing both optimal departure and arrival management strategies.When incorporated,the proposed relationship enables the possibility of pragmatic,conflict-aware departure and arrival management.展开更多
文摘The existence of a hybrid relationship connecting departure delay and resulting en-route conflicts remains a significant gap in the air transportation literature.This paper aims to establish a hybrid relationship to quantify the impact of departure delays on both the probability of en-route conflicts and the number of such conflicts.The proposed relationship is modelled using a binomial logistic regression framework,where the dependent variable,referred to as the conflict outcome at an en-route waypoint,is binary.It takes one of two possible levels:Conflict or No Conflict.The independent variables in the model are departure delay and the number of waypoints crossed since take-off.By utilising the logistic regression equation and assuming a binomial distribution for the number of conflicts,the model computes the expected number of conflicts at any given en-route waypoint.The logistic regression model parameters are estimated using maximum likelihood estimation,utilising data obtained from the Flight Data Processing System at Anna International Airport,Chennai,India.The relationship is then validated for multiple scenarios.Results and findings reinforce the hypothesised relationship,indicating an increase in delay and the number of waypoints crossed corresponds to higher conflict probabilities.Moreover,the impact of delay on conflict likelihood increases with an increase in the number of waypoints crossed.The hybrid relationship demonstrates flexibility and sufficient generalizability to account for multi-airport delay scenarios.Validation tests do not show any statistically significant difference between the observed conflict counts and the expected values predicted by the proposed relationship.Further post-estimate analyses confirm the robustness and stability of the relationship parameters.The primary recommendations hint towards the potential integration of this relationship into system-level delay management frameworks,encompassing both optimal departure and arrival management strategies.When incorporated,the proposed relationship enables the possibility of pragmatic,conflict-aware departure and arrival management.
