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Decision Aid Model for Private-owned Electric Vehicles Participating in Frequency Regulation Ancillary Service Market
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作者 Liwei Wang Yingyun Sun +2 位作者 Haotian Wang Pengfei Zhao Muhammad Safwan Jaffar 《Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy》 SCIE EI CSCD 2024年第2期621-629,共9页
To reduce the difficulty and enhance the enthusiasm of private-owned electric vehicles(EVs) in participating in frequency regulation ancillary service market(FRASM), a decision aid model(DAM) is proposed. This paper p... To reduce the difficulty and enhance the enthusiasm of private-owned electric vehicles(EVs) in participating in frequency regulation ancillary service market(FRASM), a decision aid model(DAM) is proposed. This paper presents three options for EV participating in FRASM, i. e., the base mode(BM), unidirectional charging mode(UCM), and bidirectional charging/discharging mode(BCDM), based on a reasonable simplification of users' participating willingness. In BM, individual EVs will not be involved in FRASM, and DAM will assist users to set the optimal charging schemes based on travel plans under the time-of-use(TOU) price. UCM and BCDM are two modes in which EVs can take part in FRASM. DAM can assist EV users to create their quotation plan, which includes hourly upper and lower reserve capabilities and regulation market mileage prices. In UCM and BCDM, the difference is that only the charging rate can be adjusted in the UCM, and the EVs in BCDM can not only charge but also discharge if necessary. DAM can estimate the expected revenue of all three modes, and EV users can make the final decision based on their preferences. Simulation results indicate that all the three modes of DAM can reduce the cost, while BCDM can get the maximum expected revenue. 展开更多
关键词 Electric vehicle(EV) frequency regulation decision aid model(DAM) utility maximization battery wear cost
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上海市宝山区新报告50岁及以上HIV/AIDS患者的感染因素 被引量:1
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作者 刘效峰 李雪莹 +2 位作者 王娜 陈剑双 周磊明 《中国艾滋病性病》 北大核心 2025年第2期178-183,共6页
目的 了解上海市宝山区新报告的50岁及以上HIV/AIDS患者感染风险的影响因素。方法 选取2021-2023年上海市宝山区新报告的50岁及以上HIV/AIDS患者为病例组,选取同村委会或居委会同性别年龄±2岁未感染HIV者进行1∶2频数匹配组成对照... 目的 了解上海市宝山区新报告的50岁及以上HIV/AIDS患者感染风险的影响因素。方法 选取2021-2023年上海市宝山区新报告的50岁及以上HIV/AIDS患者为病例组,选取同村委会或居委会同性别年龄±2岁未感染HIV者进行1∶2频数匹配组成对照组开展病例对照研究,以Cox比例风险模型分析感染风险的影响因素。结果 共201人纳入分析,病例组67人,对照组134人。两组间婚姻状况、居住状况、职业、经济来源、主要日常活动、户外活动频率、生活状态、对性生活期望、对婚外性行为态度和临时、商业、同性性行为发生情况及安全套使用频率差异有统计学意义(P均<0.01)。Cox比例风险模型分析显示,50岁及以上中老年人群中独居(HR=8.086,95%CI:3.174~20.604)、自由职业(HR=5.370,95%CI:1.456~19.802)、日常活动以休闲娱乐为主(HR=3.701,95%CI:1.591~8.611)者感染HIV的风险高;收入来源为退休金(HR=0.075,95%CI:0.007~0.766)、每周户外活动>3次(HR=0.005,95%CI:0.001~0.222)、与固定性伴侣的性生活频率为1次/月(HR=0.222,95%CI:0.072~0.686)、无商业性伴(HR=0.067,95%CI:0.015~0.292)者感染HIV的风险低。结论 上海市宝山区新报告的50岁及以上HIV/AIDS患者存在显著的行为和社会经济特征,亟需采取精准的防控措施降低50岁及以上中老年人群HIV的感染风险。建议对日常活动以休闲娱乐为主、自由职业、独居为特征的中老年人群加强社会支持和心理干预,倡导户外活动等健康的生活方式;对该人群聚集的休闲娱乐场所采取针对性的宣传教育和安全套推广等措施,以遏制中老年人群中艾滋病经性传播。 展开更多
关键词 50岁及以上 艾滋病病毒感染者/艾滋病患者 病例对照 影响因素 Cox比例风险模型分析
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A Collocation Technique via Pell-Lucas Polynomials to Solve Fractional Differential EquationModel for HIV/AIDS with Treatment Compartment
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作者 Gamze Yıldırım Suayip Yüzbası 《Computer Modeling in Engineering & Sciences》 SCIE EI 2024年第10期281-310,共30页
In this study,a numerical method based on the Pell-Lucas polynomials(PLPs)is developed to solve the fractional order HIV/AIDS epidemic model with a treatment compartment.The HIV/AIDS mathematical model with a treatmen... In this study,a numerical method based on the Pell-Lucas polynomials(PLPs)is developed to solve the fractional order HIV/AIDS epidemic model with a treatment compartment.The HIV/AIDS mathematical model with a treatment compartment is divided into five classes,namely,susceptible patients(S),HIV-positive individuals(I),individuals with full-blown AIDS but not receiving ARV treatment(A),individuals being treated(T),and individuals who have changed their sexual habits sufficiently(R).According to the method,by utilizing the PLPs and the collocation points,we convert the fractional order HIV/AIDS epidemic model with a treatment compartment into a nonlinear system of the algebraic equations.Also,the error analysis is presented for the Pell-Lucas approximation method.The aim of this study is to observe the behavior of five populations after 200 days when drug treatment is applied to HIV-infectious and full-blown AIDS people.To demonstrate the usefulness of this method,the applications are made on the numerical example with the help of MATLAB.In addition,four cases of the fractional order derivative(p=1,p=0.95,p=0.9,p=0.85)are examined in the range[0,200].Owing to applications,we figured out that the outcomes have quite decent errors.Also,we understand that the errors decrease when the value of N increases.The figures in this study are created in MATLAB.The outcomes indicate that the presented method is reasonably sufficient and correct. 展开更多
关键词 Collocation method fractional differential equations HIV/aidS epidemic model Pell-Lucas polynomials
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一类信息干预下具有非线性感染率的HIV/AIDS模型
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作者 许志航 张太雷 +1 位作者 侯悦 乔霞 《高校应用数学学报(A辑)》 北大核心 2025年第2期193-208,共16页
根据艾滋病的传播机理,建立了一类受信息影响且具有非线性感染率的SEI1I2A传染病模型.首先,给出了模型的基本再生数R_(0)和两类平衡点:无病平衡点和地方病平衡点;通过构造Lyapunov函数和LaSalle不变集原理证明了R_(0)<1时无病平衡点... 根据艾滋病的传播机理,建立了一类受信息影响且具有非线性感染率的SEI1I2A传染病模型.首先,给出了模型的基本再生数R_(0)和两类平衡点:无病平衡点和地方病平衡点;通过构造Lyapunov函数和LaSalle不变集原理证明了R_(0)<1时无病平衡点的全局稳定性,借助第二加性复合矩阵的方法证明了R_(0)> 1时地方病平衡点的全局稳定性.其次,选取河南省2005年至2019年新发艾滋病病例数据进行了数值模拟.最后,对部分参数进行敏感性分析,研究结果表明易感者与无意识的感染者和潜伏者的有效接触率对基本再生数有着较大的影响.扩大艾滋病信息宣传的覆盖面、提高公众对艾滋病的检测意识可以有效地降低艾滋病的传播率,控制艾滋病的蔓延. 展开更多
关键词 信息影响 HIV/aidS模型 全局稳定性 第二加性复合矩阵
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HIV/AIDS患者抗病毒治疗后死亡预测模型的研究进展
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作者 黄蓉 洪能琨 +12 位作者 张瑛 杨永 王嘉孺 孟媛 张江银 韦嘉雯 刘振威 叶桦 文跃莲 刘鳗城 杨傲 郭琳 张延琛 《中国艾滋病性病》 北大核心 2025年第6期691-695,共5页
cART虽能有效抑制病毒复制,但无法彻底清除,HIV/AIDS患者在治疗过程中仍面临较高的死亡风险。开发准确的死亡预测模型可以为改善HIV/AIDS患者预后提供辅助,其预测结果的准确性和可靠性将直接影响临床决策质量。然而,由于现有模型研究地... cART虽能有效抑制病毒复制,但无法彻底清除,HIV/AIDS患者在治疗过程中仍面临较高的死亡风险。开发准确的死亡预测模型可以为改善HIV/AIDS患者预后提供辅助,其预测结果的准确性和可靠性将直接影响临床决策质量。然而,由于现有模型研究地点、预测因子、构建方法和应用人群的不同,导致性能差异较大,进而影响患者治疗效果及预后评估。因此,本文旨在总结HIV/AIDS患者cART后死亡预测模型的研究现状,基于传统生存分析、机器学习算法及两者联合的构建方法,评价不同模型的预测性能、优劣势及挑战,为今后模型开发、优化及临床应用提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 艾滋病病毒感染者/艾滋病患者 抗病毒治疗 死亡风险 预测模型
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具有垂直传播的随机HIV/AIDS传染病模型
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作者 赵美玲 蒋亚茹 《北华大学学报(自然科学版)》 2025年第5期571-582,共12页
建立一类具有垂直传播的随机HIV/AIDS传染病模型,通过构造Lyapunov函数并利用Ito公式,得到该随机模型正解的全局存在唯一性。证明了当R_(0)^(s)>1时,该模型存在平稳遍历分布,此时HIV/AIDS将持续存在;当R_(0)^(e)<1时,疾病将会灭... 建立一类具有垂直传播的随机HIV/AIDS传染病模型,通过构造Lyapunov函数并利用Ito公式,得到该随机模型正解的全局存在唯一性。证明了当R_(0)^(s)>1时,该模型存在平稳遍历分布,此时HIV/AIDS将持续存在;当R_(0)^(e)<1时,疾病将会灭绝。通过数值模拟验证了理论结果的正确性。 展开更多
关键词 垂直传播 随机HIV/aidS传染病模型 遍历性 灭绝性
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Application of a 2 Parameter Weibull Distribution in Modeling of State Holding Time in HIV/AIDS Transition Dynamics
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作者 Nahashon Mwirigi 《Open Journal of Modelling and Simulation》 2024年第4期130-158,共29页
This study investigates the application of the two-parameter Weibull distribution in modeling state holding times within HIV/AIDS progression dynamics. By comparing the performance of the Weibull-based Accelerated Fai... This study investigates the application of the two-parameter Weibull distribution in modeling state holding times within HIV/AIDS progression dynamics. By comparing the performance of the Weibull-based Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model, Cox Proportional Hazards model, and Survival model, we assess the effectiveness of these models in capturing survival rates across varying gender, age groups, and treatment categories. Simulated data was used to fit the models, with model identification criteria (AIC, BIC, and R2) applied for evaluation. Results indicate that the AFT model is particularly sensitive to interaction terms, showing significant effects for older age groups (50 - 60 years) and treatment interaction, while the Cox model provides a more stable fit across all age groups. The Survival model displayed variability, with its performance diminishing when interaction terms were introduced, particularly in older age groups. Overall, while the AFT model captures the complexities of interactions in the data, the Cox model’s stability suggests it may be better suited for general analyses without strong interaction effects. The findings highlight the importance of model selection in survival analysis, especially in complex disease progression scenarios like HIV/AIDS. 展开更多
关键词 Weibull Distribution AFT model Cox Proportional Hazards HIV/aidS State Holding Time Survival Analysis
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Applications of Computer Aided Modeling Techniques to Complex ICE Components 被引量:1
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作者 左正兴 冯慧华 +1 位作者 廖日东 邹文胜 《Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology》 EI CAS 2000年第4期451-458,共8页
Design of internal combustion engine (ICE) components is one of the earliest and also the most active areas in which computer aided modeling techniques are applied. Computer aided modeling techniques could provide req... Design of internal combustion engine (ICE) components is one of the earliest and also the most active areas in which computer aided modeling techniques are applied. Computer aided modeling techniques could provide requisite information for follow up designing segments such as structural analysis, design of technological process and manufacturing etc, and thereby lead to the reduction of product design period and the quality and reliability improvement of ICE components. So the developing situations of ICE components' 2 D drafting, 3 D modeling of ICE, overall CAD of ICE as well as component design expert system etc. are surveyed, which are the typical applications of computer aided modeling techniques in ICE component design process, and some existent problems and tasks are pointed out so as to make some references for the further research work. 展开更多
关键词 internal combustion engine(ICE) components computer aided modeling CAD 3 D model
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基于ARIMA模型的2010-2020年云南省HIV/AIDS发病率预测分析
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作者 陈雪梅 《现代医药卫生》 2025年第1期11-17,共7页
目的构建自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型,以预测该地区的人类免疫缺陷病毒/获得性免疫缺陷综合征(HIV/AIDS)发病率,并对模型的预测效能进行评估。方法对云南省2010年1月至2020年12月HIV/AIDS的月发病率数据建立ARIMA模型。通过比较分析,选择... 目的构建自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型,以预测该地区的人类免疫缺陷病毒/获得性免疫缺陷综合征(HIV/AIDS)发病率,并对模型的预测效能进行评估。方法对云南省2010年1月至2020年12月HIV/AIDS的月发病率数据建立ARIMA模型。通过比较分析,选择AIDS和HIV发病率的最优拟合模型,并对2020年全年的月发病率进行了预测,分析模型预测的准确度。结果在2010-2020年,云南省的AIDS发病率保持稳定,而HIV发病率则呈逐年下降趋势。经平稳化处理、单位根检验(ADF)和模型筛选,确定ARIMA(2,0,2)(1,0,2)[12]为AIDS发病率的最优拟合模型,ARIMA(2,1,1)(2,1,0)[12]为HIV发病率的最优拟合模型,模型拟合优度检验显示R 2分别为0.668和0.737,Ljung-Box统计量分别为12.97(P>0.05)和14.89(P>0.05),贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)值分别为-3.07和-3.08,平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)分别为16.41和11.29。模型残差的自相关函数图(ACF)和偏自相关函数图(PACF)均在95%CI范围内,模型曲线的预测值与实际值的趋势一致,预测值与实际值接近。结论ARIMA模型对AIDS和HIV发病率的预测效果良好,该模型可作为短期预测和分析的有效工具,为相关部门及时采取有效的HIV/AIDS防控措施提供科学的决策支持。 展开更多
关键词 人类免疫缺陷病毒/获得性免疫缺陷综合征 自回归移动平均模型 时间序列分析 疾病预测 发病率
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数字普惠金融与城乡居民消费结构升级--基于拓展AIDS模型的实证研究 被引量:7
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作者 张林 张雯卿 温涛 《数理统计与管理》 CSSCI 北大核心 2024年第5期903-922,共20页
本文基于拓展的AIDS模型和2011-2019年中国30个省份的面板数据,采用似不相关回归(SUR)和两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)等方法,对数字普惠金融如何影响居民消费结构升级进行了理论分析和实证检验。研究结果表明,数字普惠金融发展可以抑制居民... 本文基于拓展的AIDS模型和2011-2019年中国30个省份的面板数据,采用似不相关回归(SUR)和两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)等方法,对数字普惠金融如何影响居民消费结构升级进行了理论分析和实证检验。研究结果表明,数字普惠金融发展可以抑制居民生存型消费,并同时促进发展型消费与享受型消费,在控制内生性、更换核心变量和更换模型参数的估计方法后等检验后该结论依然稳健。从传导机制来看,数字普惠金融发展主要通过提升支付便利性和减缓流动性约束来促进居民消费结构升级,而降低预防性储蓄机制不成立。异质性检验结果显示,数字普惠金融发展对中等消费水平居民的影响作用最大,对农村居民消费的影响作用大于城镇居民;数字普惠金融对居民消费结构升级的作用机制在东部、中部和西部地区也存在较大差异。本文的政策启示在于:利用数字普惠金融促进居民消费升级不仅需要多措并举加快数字普惠金融发展,更需要制定差异化的消费金融政策措施以不断激发和释放居民消费潜力。 展开更多
关键词 数字普惠金融 消费结构升级 aidS模型 异质性
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Study on the Characteristics, Problems, and Models of China's Aid to Africa under the New Situation
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作者 Kanghui SONG 《International Journal of Technology Management》 2013年第6期84-86,共3页
In this paper, the characteristics of China's aid to Africa under the new situation are summarized, and also the existing problems are smmnarized from the level of strategy, the level of public opinion, the level of ... In this paper, the characteristics of China's aid to Africa under the new situation are summarized, and also the existing problems are smmnarized from the level of strategy, the level of public opinion, the level of methods and contents, and the level of effect. Combined with the change of the current international political and economic trend, the model of China's aid to Afiica is innovatively concluded by tile author as Ihe model of"Bidirectional Balance Improved Aid" and also its definition, main contents, and practice keys are expounded. This model provides a reference model for China's aid to Africa and is good for solving the problems in the aid, so that a better actual effect can be achieved. 展开更多
关键词 Bidirectional Balance hnprovcd aid China's aid to Africa aid model
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基于Bayes时空模型分析HIV/AIDS晚发现的时空分布特征及其影响因素 被引量:1
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作者 邵莉 陈继军 +3 位作者 张宇琦 许静 栗果 高文龙 《中山大学学报(医学科学版)》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2024年第2期243-252,共10页
【目的】旨在分析兰州市HIV/AIDS晚发现的时空聚集性特征及相关影响因素,明确兰州市HIV/AIDS晚发现高风险地区和时间趋势,为兰州市因地制宜地制定HIV/AIDS防治策略措施提供参考依据。【方法】选择兰州市2011-2018年间新报告的成年HIV/A... 【目的】旨在分析兰州市HIV/AIDS晚发现的时空聚集性特征及相关影响因素,明确兰州市HIV/AIDS晚发现高风险地区和时间趋势,为兰州市因地制宜地制定HIV/AIDS防治策略措施提供参考依据。【方法】选择兰州市2011-2018年间新报告的成年HIV/AIDS病例作为研究对象,研究中所需的数据资料来自兰州市疾病预防控制中心和兰州市统计年鉴。采用Bayes时空模型分析HIV/AIDS晚发现相对风险(RR)的时空分布特征及其影响因素。【结果】2011-2018年间兰州市新报告的HIV/AIDS病例共计1984例,其中HIV/AIDS晚发现者有982例(49.5%),平均年龄为39.67岁,男性占90.9%。老年人和女性HIV/AIDS病例中晚发现的比例更高;城关区(51.1%)、安宁区(50.3%)和榆中县(51.9%)具有高于平均水平的HIV/AIDS晚发现比例;2011-2018年间兰州市总体的晚发现比例呈波动上升趋势。Bayes时空模型分析结果显示,兰州市HIV/AIDS晚发现风险在2011-2015年间波动变化,而在2015年后迅速上升,其RR(95%CI)从1.01(0.84,1.23)上升到1.11(0.77,1.97);红古区和三个县的晚发现风险变化趋势与兰州市的总体变化趋势相似,而城关区和七里河区的晚发现风险呈下降趋势;晚发现相对风险大于1的区县包括:永登县(RR=1.07,95%CI:0.55,1.96)、西固区(RR=1.04,95%CI:0.67,1.49)、城关区(RR=2.41,95%CI:0.85,6.16)和七里河区(RR=2.03,95%CI:1.10,3.27)。冷热点分析结果显示城关区和七里河区为热点区。影响因素分析结果显示,随着人均GDP(RR=0.65,95%CI:0.35,0.90)和HIV/AIDS病例中的男性比例(RR=0.53,95%CI:0.19,0.92)的增高,HIV/AIDS晚发现的相对风险越低;而人口密度(RR=1.35,95%CI:1.01,1.81)越大,晚发现风险越高。【结论】兰州市的HIV/AIDS晚发现风险呈上升趋势,并且存在明显的地区差异特征;人均GDP、HIV/AIDS中男性比例和人口密度是HIV/AIDS晚发现的影响因素。因此,对于晚发现风险高和存在相关风险因素的区县,应重视并制定有针对性的HIV筛查和防治服务,降低HIV/AIDS晚发现比例和风险。 展开更多
关键词 艾滋病 人类免疫缺陷病毒 晚发现 Bayes时空模型 分布特征
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HIV/AIDS患者ART治疗后免疫功能重建不全影响因素分析及风险预测
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作者 黄娜 周竹云 《中国现代医药杂志》 2025年第8期71-76,共6页
目的研究人类免疫缺陷病毒感染者/艾滋病患者(HIV/AIDS)接受抗病毒治疗(ART)后发生免疫功能重建不全的相关因素,并采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线构建风险预测模型,评价相关因素对发生免疫功能重建不全的风险程度及预测效果。方法将2016年... 目的研究人类免疫缺陷病毒感染者/艾滋病患者(HIV/AIDS)接受抗病毒治疗(ART)后发生免疫功能重建不全的相关因素,并采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线构建风险预测模型,评价相关因素对发生免疫功能重建不全的风险程度及预测效果。方法将2016年1月1日~2023年12月31日在中南大学湘雅二医院艾滋病门诊随访治疗4年以上的HIV/AIDS患者作为研究对象,根据ART治疗后免疫功能重建效果分为免疫功能重建不全组(n=127)和免疫功能重建良好组(n=130)。对两组患者的基线资料和随访期间的免疫监测指标进行分析。通过单因素和多因素二元Logistic回归分析,研究影响免疫功能重建效果的因素,并绘制ROC曲线来评估结果。结果两组患者在性别、感染途径、初治ART方案、合并感染方面比较,差异均无统计学意义(P>0.05),对患者初治ART的年龄、基线CD_(4)^(+)T淋巴细胞计数、ART治疗前WHO临床分期、ART启动时间差、启动ART 1年后CD_(4)^(+)T淋巴细胞计数增幅>100个/μL进行分析,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05),其中年龄≥60岁、基线CD_(4)^(+)T淋巴细胞计数≤50个/μL和51~200个/μL、ART治疗前WHO临床分期Ⅲ期和Ⅳ期是影响免疫功能重建不全的独立风险因素。结论基线CD_(4)^(+)T淋巴细胞计数、启动ART 1年后CD_(4)^(+)T淋巴细胞计数增幅、ART治疗前WHO临床分期、启动ART治疗时间差、年龄因素对HIV/AIDS患者启动ART治疗的免疫功能重建效果具有预测价值。 展开更多
关键词 人类免疫缺陷病毒感染者 艾滋病患者 抗病毒治疗 免疫功能重建不全 影响因素 预测模型
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DYNAMIC FOR A STOCHASTIC MULTI-GROUP AIDS MODEL WITH SATURATED INCIDENCE RATE 被引量:2
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作者 Qixing HAN Daqing JIANG 《Acta Mathematica Scientia》 SCIE CSCD 2020年第6期1883-1896,共14页
In this paper,a stochastic multi-group AIDS model with saturated incidence rate is studied.We prove that the system is persistent in the mean under some parametric restrictions.We also obtain the sufficient condition ... In this paper,a stochastic multi-group AIDS model with saturated incidence rate is studied.We prove that the system is persistent in the mean under some parametric restrictions.We also obtain the sufficient condition for the existence of the ergodic stationary distribution of the system by constructing a suitable Lyapunov function.Our results indicate that the existence of ergodic stationary distribution does not rely on the interior equilibrium of the corresponding deterministic system,which greatly improves upon previous results. 展开更多
关键词 multi-group aidS model Lyapunov function stationary distribution persistence in the mean
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HIV/AIDS患者肠内营养治疗喂养不耐受发生风险预测模型的构建与验证
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作者 龚贝贝 黄海妹 +2 位作者 韦彩云 玉明柳 何华伟 《医学新知》 CAS 2024年第7期756-767,共12页
目的调查HIV/AIDS患者肠内营养治疗喂养不耐受的影响因素,建立列线图预测模型并进行验证。方法回顾性分析2015年1月1日至2021年9月30日南宁市第四人民医院收治的HIV/AIDS住院患者临床资料,通过二分类Logistic回归模型,探索HIV/AIDS患者... 目的调查HIV/AIDS患者肠内营养治疗喂养不耐受的影响因素,建立列线图预测模型并进行验证。方法回顾性分析2015年1月1日至2021年9月30日南宁市第四人民医院收治的HIV/AIDS住院患者临床资料,通过二分类Logistic回归模型,探索HIV/AIDS患者肠内营养治疗喂养不耐受的危险因素,构建列线图预测模型并验证评价。结果共纳入174例HIV/AIDS患者,其中76例HIV/AIDS患者发生早期肠内营养喂养不耐受(43.68%)。多因素分析显示,平均动脉压≤80 mmHg[OR=2.822,95%CI(1.267,6.287)]、急性生理学与慢性健康状况评分Ⅱ>15分[OR=5.625,95%CI(1.435,22.048)]、机械通气应用[OR=5.459,95%CI(2.046,14.564)]、高效抗反转录病毒治疗[OR=2.428,95%CI(1.118,5.275)]、肌松剂应用[OR=3.833,95%CI(1.758,8.357)]、CD4^(+)T细胞计数≤200个·μL^(-1)[OR=3.785,95%CI(1.126,12.724)]、抗生素使用数量>2种[OR=2.365,95%CI(1.039,5.384)]是HIV/AIDS患者肠内营养治疗发生喂养不耐受的影响因素。列线图预测模型AUC值为0.849[95%CI(0.794,0.905)],最大约登指数为0.555时,最佳临界值为0.331,灵敏度为88.16%,特异度为67.35%;校准曲线、决策曲线评价模型具有较好的一致性及获益性。结论本研究构建的HIV/AIDS患者肠内营养治疗喂养不耐受风险预测模型可为医护人员快速识别HIV/AIDS患者喂养不耐受发生风险、及时采取预防性护理措施提供参考依据。 展开更多
关键词 HIV 艾滋病 肠内营养 喂养耐受 列线图 预测模型
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The Changing Trends of HIV/AIDS in An Ethnic Minority Region of China: Modeling the Epidemic in Liangshan Prefecture, Sichuan Province 被引量:7
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作者 LIU Shou WANG Qi Xing +7 位作者 NAN Lei WU Chun Lin WANG Zhao Fen BAI Zhen Zhong LIU Li CAI Peng QIN Si LUAN Rong Sheng 《Biomedical and Environmental Sciences》 SCIE CAS CSCD 2013年第7期562-570,共9页
Objective This study was to investigate the HIV current situation in Liangshan prefecture, in order to predict prevalence and transmission trends. Methods Region-specific population, behavior, serosurveillence, and po... Objective This study was to investigate the HIV current situation in Liangshan prefecture, in order to predict prevalence and transmission trends. Methods Region-specific population, behavior, serosurveillence, and policy/program data (from 1995 to 2020) were gathered from various local and national organizations and applied to the Asian Epidemic Model (AEM) and used to derive estimates of future HIV prevalence, epidemic trends, and outcomes of intervention strategies. Results The AEM projections for 2020 included increased number of people living with HIV (PLHIV; to 136 617), increased HIV prevalence (2.51%), and 8037 deaths from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in this region. However, the overall HIV incidence rate (per 10 000) was projected to decline from 27 in 2015 to 22 in 2020, largely due to a predicted decrease in HIV infection rate (per 10 000) from 658 in 2013 to 621 in 2020 among intravenous drug users. In contrast, the cases of HIV infection per i0 000 was projected to increase from 420 in 2010 to 503 in 2020 among men who have sex with men, and from 8 in 2010 to 15 in 2020 among the general population. The predominant risk factor for HIV transmission over the next decade in Liangshan was casual sex. Community-based outreach strategies to reduce injected drug use and casual sex, and to promote condom use, were predicted as effective interventions to decrease HIV transmission. Conclusion Implementation of a comprehensive public health program, with targeting to the region-specific at-risk populations, will help to mitigate HIV/AIDS spread in Liangshan. 展开更多
关键词 HIV/aidS Asian epidemic model High-risk population Liangshan Prefecture
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2011-2020年山东省新报告15~24岁学生HIV/AIDS基本特征及趋势 被引量:2
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作者 路真真 李玲 +4 位作者 赵帅 李亚君 王国永 康殿民 张娜 《热带医学杂志》 CAS 2024年第2期269-272,304,共5页
目的 分析2011-2020年山东省新报告15~24岁学生HIV/AIDS的基本特征及趋势,为制定在校青年学生艾滋病防控措施提供依据。方法 以2011-2020年山东省新报告15~24岁学生HIV/AIDS为研究对象,分析其社会人口学特征、传播途径、样本来源、首次... 目的 分析2011-2020年山东省新报告15~24岁学生HIV/AIDS的基本特征及趋势,为制定在校青年学生艾滋病防控措施提供依据。方法 以2011-2020年山东省新报告15~24岁学生HIV/AIDS为研究对象,分析其社会人口学特征、传播途径、样本来源、首次CD4检测情况和性行为等,运用Joinpoint回归模型分析历年报告发病率的时间变化趋势。结果 2011-2020年山东省新报告15~24岁学生HIV/AIDS共1 035例,主要为男性(99.30%),大专及以上学历(83.96%),同性传播(92.08%),61.54%通过检测咨询发现;2011-2015年报告发病率呈上升趋势(APC=41.28%,P<0.05),2016年及以后保持平稳趋势(APC=-0.33%,P>0.05)。历年新报告HIV/AIDS中,首次CD4细胞计数500~个/μL者占比呈逐年下降趋势(χ^(2)=7.19,P<0.05)。结论 2011-2020年山东省青年学生HIV/AIDS整体发病率上升趋势有所减缓,青年学生男男同性性行为(MSM)人群是感染HIV的重点人群,在扩大检测咨询基础上,应加强健康教育和行为干预。 展开更多
关键词 HIV/aidS 青年学生 Joinpoint回归模型 男男同性性行为
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Stability Analysis of a Delayed HIV/AIDS Epidemic Model with Treatment and Vertical Transmission 被引量:1
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作者 Zohragul Osman Xamxinur Abdurahman 《Applied Mathematics》 2015年第10期1781-1789,共9页
A delayed HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatment and vertical transmission is investigated. The model allows some infected individuals to move from the symptomatic phase to the asymptomatic phase;next generation of in... A delayed HIV/AIDS epidemic model with treatment and vertical transmission is investigated. The model allows some infected individuals to move from the symptomatic phase to the asymptomatic phase;next generation of infected individuals may be infected and it will take them some time to get maturity and infect others. Mathematical analysis shows that the global dynamics of the spread of the HIV/AIDS are completely determined by the basic reproduction number R0 for our model. If R0 R0 > 1. 展开更多
关键词 HIV/aidS EPIDEMIC model VERTICAL Transmission Basic REPRODUCTION Number Time Delay
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Recent advances of variational model in medical imaging and applications to computer aided surgery 被引量:2
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作者 PENG Jia-lin DONG Fang-fang KONG De-Xing 《Applied Mathematics(A Journal of Chinese Universities)》 SCIE CSCD 2012年第4期379-411,共33页
In this paper, we review some mathematical models in medical image processing. Due to the superiority in modeling and computation, variational methods have been proven to be powerful techniques, which have been extrem... In this paper, we review some mathematical models in medical image processing. Due to the superiority in modeling and computation, variational methods have been proven to be powerful techniques, which have been extremely popular and dramatically improved in the past two decades. On one hand, many models have been proposed for nearly all kinds of applications. On the other hand, a lot of models can be globally optimized and also many computation tools have been introduced. Under the variational framework, we focus on two basic problems in medical imaging: image restoration and segmentation, which are core components for kinds of specific tasks. For image restoration, we discuss some models on both additive and multiplicative noises. For image segmentation, we review some models on both whole image segmentation and specific target delineation, with the later being a key step in computer aided surgery. Additionally, we present some models on liver delineation and give their applications to living donor liver transplantation. 展开更多
关键词 SEGMENTATION RESTORATION variational model computer aided surgery.
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How to Effectively Detect and Manage People Living with HIV/AIDS in China:Establishment of a Community-based Model 被引量:2
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作者 徐晶 祝慧萍 +2 位作者 高晓晖 刘伟 杜玉开 《Journal of Huazhong University of Science and Technology(Medical Sciences)》 SCIE CAS 2012年第5期637-641,共5页
This study explored a novel systemic community-based model for detecting and manag-ing people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). Both quantitative and qualitative research methods were used in this study. A quantitative qu... This study explored a novel systemic community-based model for detecting and manag-ing people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA). Both quantitative and qualitative research methods were used in this study. A quantitative questionnaire investigation was conducted in a sample of 1192 subjects which were randomly selected from two areas with high HIV prevalence, Xiangfan City and Shiyan City of Hubei Province, China. Twenty-two medical and health service staffs were inter-viewed by semi-structured questionnaire focusing on awareness, status, problems, and suggestions about community-based Voluntary Counseling and Testing and Provider Initiated Testing and Coun-seling (VCT/PITC). And they were organized to discuss about the aforementioned issues in Xiangfan City and Shiyan City, respectively. Our results showed that the accessibility and availability of the general VCT/PITC were bad. About 28.3% had known and only 4.9% had made use of VCT/PITC. Developing community-based VCT/PITC had some special advantages that can overcome some ex-isting problems to remedy the aforementioned defects. We are led to conclude that, to maximize the availability and uptake rate of the VCT/PITC, we plan to detect PLWHA by developing the commu-nity-based VCT/PITC through 4 paths. Then we establish the community HIV health care center con-stituted of 8 sectors to provide an overall management. Thus, we can effectively detect and manage the PLWHA with a new systemic community-based model. 展开更多
关键词 community-based model HIV/aidS PLWHA detection and management
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