Using the meteorological data and geographical information during January-March（1961-2010） accumulated by 18 stations of Hainan,a suitability zoning map for thermo-sensitive genetic male sterility（TGMS） rice was m...Using the meteorological data and geographical information during January-March（1961-2010） accumulated by 18 stations of Hainan,a suitability zoning map for thermo-sensitive genetic male sterility（TGMS） rice was made by GIS technology based on temperature indicators required by TGMS rice during fertility sensitive period and heading-flowering period,aiming to provide reasonable layout and scientific basis for sustainable development of TGMS rice in Hainan Island under the background of global warming.The results indicated that the suitable planting zones covered the south regions of Wuzhishan,Jianfengling and Diaoluoshan;subordinate suitable zones expanded northward to central parts of Wuzhishan,Dongfang,Changjiang,Qiongzhong and southern parts of Wanning;the other regions were unsuitable for breeding.展开更多
In this study, the spatial distribution and changing trends of agricultural heat and precipitation resources in Northeast China were analyzed to explore the impacts of future climate changes on agroclimatic resources ...In this study, the spatial distribution and changing trends of agricultural heat and precipitation resources in Northeast China were analyzed to explore the impacts of future climate changes on agroclimatic resources in the region. This research is based on the output meteorological data from the regional climate model system for Northeast China from 2005 to 2099, under low and high radiative forcing scenarios RCP4.5 （low emission scenario） and RCP8.5 （high emission scenario） as proposed in IPCC AR5. Model outputs under the base- line scenario, and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were assimilated with observed data from 91 meteorological stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2010 to perform the analyses. The results indicate that： （1） The spatial distribution of temperature decreases from south to north, and the temperature is projected to increase in all regions, especially under a high emission scenario. The average annual temperature under the baseline scenario is 7.70℃, and the average annual temperatures under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are 9.67℃ and 10.66℃, respectively. Other agricultural heat resources change in accordance with temperature changes. Specifically, the first day with temperatures 〉10℃ arrives 3 to 4 d earlier, the first frost date is delayed by 2 to 6 d, and the duration of the growing season is lengthened by 4 to 10 d, and the accumulated temperature increases by 400 to 700℃·d. Water resources exhibit slight but not significant increases. （2） While the historical temperature increase rate is 0.35℃/10a, the rate of future temperature increase is the highest under the RCP8.5 scenario at 0.48℃/10a, compared to 0.19℃/10a under the RCP4.5 scenario. In the later part of this century, the trend of temperature increase is significantly faster under the RCP8.5 scenario than under the RCP4.5 scenario, with faster increases in the northern region. Other agricultural heat resources exhibit similar trends as temperature, but with different specific spatial distributions. Precipitation in the growing season generally shows an increasing but insignificant trend in the future, with relatively large yearly fluctuations. Precipitation in the eastern region is projected to increase, while a decrease is expected in the western region. The future climate in Northeast China will change towards higher temperature and humidity. The heat resource will increase globally, however its disparity with the change in precipitation may negatively affect agricultural activities.展开更多
Accumulated temperature above 100℃ (Σ t) and minimum annual temperature (Tm) are the major indexes for demarcating agroclimatic thermal zones. The paper calculated the return period (τ) of Σ t and Tm, and the shif...Accumulated temperature above 100℃ (Σ t) and minimum annual temperature (Tm) are the major indexes for demarcating agroclimatic thermal zones. The paper calculated the return period (τ) of Σ t and Tm, and the shift ofΣ t-and Tm-isopleths with T. The results show: (1) According to the magnitude of shift of Σ t-and Tm-isopleths, in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and northern Xinjiang the fluctuation of thermal resources in growing season from year to year is the greatest and strongly impacts the yield of annual thermophilous crops, but in the Changjiang River basin the fluctuation of the low temperature in winter is the greatest and seriously injures the perennial subtropical tree crops. ( 2) In the anomalous cool summer year with t = 30, the northern boundaries of the southern subtropical, northern subtropical and warm temperate zones and the southern boundary of the frigid temperate zone in China could be expected to shift southward 150, 220, 250 and 300 km from their normal positions,展开更多
To understand the potential impacts of projected climate change on the vulnerable agriculture in Central Asia(CA),six agroclimatic indicators are calculated based on the 9-km-resolution dynamical downscaled results of...To understand the potential impacts of projected climate change on the vulnerable agriculture in Central Asia(CA),six agroclimatic indicators are calculated based on the 9-km-resolution dynamical downscaled results of three different global climate models from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5),and their changes in the near-term future(2031-50)are assessed relative to the reference period(1986-2005).The quantile mapping(QM)method is applied to correct the model data before calculating the indicators.Results show the QM method largely reduces the biases in all the indicators.Growing season length(GSL,day),summer days(SU,day),warm spell duration index(WSDI,day),and tropical nights(TR,day)are projected to significantly increase over CA,and frost days(FD,day)are projected to decrease.However,changes in biologically effective degree days(BEDD,°C)are spatially heterogeneous.The high-resolution projection dataset of agroclimatic indicators over CA can serve as a scientific basis for assessing the future risks to local agriculture from climate change and will be beneficial in planning adaption and mitigation actions for food security in this region.展开更多
A mean annual loss rate(MALR) is a measure of the damaging degree of different crops to agroclimatic calamities such as waterlogging, strong win4 hail and dry-hot wind. It is useful for assessing regional insurance Pr...A mean annual loss rate(MALR) is a measure of the damaging degree of different crops to agroclimatic calamities such as waterlogging, strong win4 hail and dry-hot wind. It is useful for assessing regional insurance Premium. Based on the meteorological data observed from 1961 to 1993 in Hebei province and the damaging grades of some crops to meteorological disasters, we establish the index systems of agroclimatic calamities and then calculate the MALR with hierarchical models. Finally, GIS-based spatial maps on MALR has been employed to exhibit regional differentiation of mean annual loss rate of crops.展开更多
In the global climatic change, China's climatic change will be more compliCated and itS compact on the agroclimatic resources and agricultural production will also be more obvious. Therefore, it is absolutely nec...In the global climatic change, China's climatic change will be more compliCated and itS compact on the agroclimatic resources and agricultural production will also be more obvious. Therefore, it is absolutely necessary to take the agroclimatic resources as a comprehensive climatic information syStem for evaluating the impact of climatic change on agriculture and exploring the corresPOndent ways to deal with it. This article studies the compact of climatic change on China's thermal resources and make a correlation analySis of the climatic COndition and the agroclimatic thermal resources in order to establish a regression equation and made simulant computation with Monte Cario Method. In addition, it analyses the change of the thermal resources possibly resulted from climatic change, evaluates its impact on agricultural, and finally sets up the corresPOndent countermeasures.展开更多
N＇zerekore is a geographical region of Guinea, which houses a weather observatory located at longitude 8.8°, latitude 7.7° and altitude 475 m. This region is of major socio-economic interest for the Country...N＇zerekore is a geographical region of Guinea, which houses a weather observatory located at longitude 8.8°, latitude 7.7° and altitude 475 m. This region is of major socio-economic interest for the Country. The climatological study of this region shows the variability of each parameter. The objective of this study was to analyze meteorological parameters trends and to assess the space-time evolution of some agro-climatic risks related to the main trends observed in the meteorological parameters regime of this region. In this study, programming tools were used for processing and analyzing meteorological parameters data, including temperatures, rains, wind, evaporation and storms measured in this observatory from 1931 to 2014. The interannual, annual and daily variations of these parameters were obtained, as well as temperature, precipitation anomalies and agroclimatic indexes trends. The analyzing of these variations explained that September is the rainiest months, and the year 1932, 1957 and 1970 are normal, rainy and dry year, respectively. The evaporation increased since 1971 from January to March and November to December. A positive temperature anomaly was observed since 1973 with the maximum 26-33 ℃ and the minimum 16-21 ℃. A dominant westerly wind with a speed of 2.6 m/s was determined. Agro-climatic parameters in N＇zerekore have high variability. From 1931 to 2014, three major periods can be distinguished： a wet period from 1931 to 1977, a dry period from 1978 to 1994 and rainfall variability from 1995 to 2014. The trend of these parameters explains the impact of climate change in this part of the world. This is exacerbated by human activity （deforestation）, thus mitigation measures are necessary. It would be useful to extend this study throughout the country.展开更多
基金Supported by the Project of Meteorological Service Website Construction for HainanBreeding(Qiong Nong Ji Cai No.[2013]18 of Hainan Provincial Department of Agriculture)~~
文摘Using the meteorological data and geographical information during January-March（1961-2010） accumulated by 18 stations of Hainan,a suitability zoning map for thermo-sensitive genetic male sterility（TGMS） rice was made by GIS technology based on temperature indicators required by TGMS rice during fertility sensitive period and heading-flowering period,aiming to provide reasonable layout and scientific basis for sustainable development of TGMS rice in Hainan Island under the background of global warming.The results indicated that the suitable planting zones covered the south regions of Wuzhishan,Jianfengling and Diaoluoshan;subordinate suitable zones expanded northward to central parts of Wuzhishan,Dongfang,Changjiang,Qiongzhong and southern parts of Wanning;the other regions were unsuitable for breeding.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.31371530 Jiangsu Province Innovative Postgraduate Training Program, No.KYLX_0846
文摘In this study, the spatial distribution and changing trends of agricultural heat and precipitation resources in Northeast China were analyzed to explore the impacts of future climate changes on agroclimatic resources in the region. This research is based on the output meteorological data from the regional climate model system for Northeast China from 2005 to 2099, under low and high radiative forcing scenarios RCP4.5 （low emission scenario） and RCP8.5 （high emission scenario） as proposed in IPCC AR5. Model outputs under the base- line scenario, and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were assimilated with observed data from 91 meteorological stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2010 to perform the analyses. The results indicate that： （1） The spatial distribution of temperature decreases from south to north, and the temperature is projected to increase in all regions, especially under a high emission scenario. The average annual temperature under the baseline scenario is 7.70℃, and the average annual temperatures under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are 9.67℃ and 10.66℃, respectively. Other agricultural heat resources change in accordance with temperature changes. Specifically, the first day with temperatures 〉10℃ arrives 3 to 4 d earlier, the first frost date is delayed by 2 to 6 d, and the duration of the growing season is lengthened by 4 to 10 d, and the accumulated temperature increases by 400 to 700℃·d. Water resources exhibit slight but not significant increases. （2） While the historical temperature increase rate is 0.35℃/10a, the rate of future temperature increase is the highest under the RCP8.5 scenario at 0.48℃/10a, compared to 0.19℃/10a under the RCP4.5 scenario. In the later part of this century, the trend of temperature increase is significantly faster under the RCP8.5 scenario than under the RCP4.5 scenario, with faster increases in the northern region. Other agricultural heat resources exhibit similar trends as temperature, but with different specific spatial distributions. Precipitation in the growing season generally shows an increasing but insignificant trend in the future, with relatively large yearly fluctuations. Precipitation in the eastern region is projected to increase, while a decrease is expected in the western region. The future climate in Northeast China will change towards higher temperature and humidity. The heat resource will increase globally, however its disparity with the change in precipitation may negatively affect agricultural activities.
文摘Accumulated temperature above 100℃ (Σ t) and minimum annual temperature (Tm) are the major indexes for demarcating agroclimatic thermal zones. The paper calculated the return period (τ) of Σ t and Tm, and the shift ofΣ t-and Tm-isopleths with T. The results show: (1) According to the magnitude of shift of Σ t-and Tm-isopleths, in Northeast China, Inner Mongolia and northern Xinjiang the fluctuation of thermal resources in growing season from year to year is the greatest and strongly impacts the yield of annual thermophilous crops, but in the Changjiang River basin the fluctuation of the low temperature in winter is the greatest and seriously injures the perennial subtropical tree crops. ( 2) In the anomalous cool summer year with t = 30, the northern boundaries of the southern subtropical, northern subtropical and warm temperate zones and the southern boundary of the frigid temperate zone in China could be expected to shift southward 150, 220, 250 and 300 km from their normal positions,
基金supported by the Strate-gic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XDA20020201)the General Project of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41875134).
文摘To understand the potential impacts of projected climate change on the vulnerable agriculture in Central Asia(CA),six agroclimatic indicators are calculated based on the 9-km-resolution dynamical downscaled results of three different global climate models from Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5),and their changes in the near-term future(2031-50)are assessed relative to the reference period(1986-2005).The quantile mapping(QM)method is applied to correct the model data before calculating the indicators.Results show the QM method largely reduces the biases in all the indicators.Growing season length(GSL,day),summer days(SU,day),warm spell duration index(WSDI,day),and tropical nights(TR,day)are projected to significantly increase over CA,and frost days(FD,day)are projected to decrease.However,changes in biologically effective degree days(BEDD,°C)are spatially heterogeneous.The high-resolution projection dataset of agroclimatic indicators over CA can serve as a scientific basis for assessing the future risks to local agriculture from climate change and will be beneficial in planning adaption and mitigation actions for food security in this region.
文摘A mean annual loss rate(MALR) is a measure of the damaging degree of different crops to agroclimatic calamities such as waterlogging, strong win4 hail and dry-hot wind. It is useful for assessing regional insurance Premium. Based on the meteorological data observed from 1961 to 1993 in Hebei province and the damaging grades of some crops to meteorological disasters, we establish the index systems of agroclimatic calamities and then calculate the MALR with hierarchical models. Finally, GIS-based spatial maps on MALR has been employed to exhibit regional differentiation of mean annual loss rate of crops.
文摘In the global climatic change, China's climatic change will be more compliCated and itS compact on the agroclimatic resources and agricultural production will also be more obvious. Therefore, it is absolutely necessary to take the agroclimatic resources as a comprehensive climatic information syStem for evaluating the impact of climatic change on agriculture and exploring the corresPOndent ways to deal with it. This article studies the compact of climatic change on China's thermal resources and make a correlation analySis of the climatic COndition and the agroclimatic thermal resources in order to establish a regression equation and made simulant computation with Monte Cario Method. In addition, it analyses the change of the thermal resources possibly resulted from climatic change, evaluates its impact on agricultural, and finally sets up the corresPOndent countermeasures.
文摘N＇zerekore is a geographical region of Guinea, which houses a weather observatory located at longitude 8.8°, latitude 7.7° and altitude 475 m. This region is of major socio-economic interest for the Country. The climatological study of this region shows the variability of each parameter. The objective of this study was to analyze meteorological parameters trends and to assess the space-time evolution of some agro-climatic risks related to the main trends observed in the meteorological parameters regime of this region. In this study, programming tools were used for processing and analyzing meteorological parameters data, including temperatures, rains, wind, evaporation and storms measured in this observatory from 1931 to 2014. The interannual, annual and daily variations of these parameters were obtained, as well as temperature, precipitation anomalies and agroclimatic indexes trends. The analyzing of these variations explained that September is the rainiest months, and the year 1932, 1957 and 1970 are normal, rainy and dry year, respectively. The evaporation increased since 1971 from January to March and November to December. A positive temperature anomaly was observed since 1973 with the maximum 26-33 ℃ and the minimum 16-21 ℃. A dominant westerly wind with a speed of 2.6 m/s was determined. Agro-climatic parameters in N＇zerekore have high variability. From 1931 to 2014, three major periods can be distinguished： a wet period from 1931 to 1977, a dry period from 1978 to 1994 and rainfall variability from 1995 to 2014. The trend of these parameters explains the impact of climate change in this part of the world. This is exacerbated by human activity （deforestation）, thus mitigation measures are necessary. It would be useful to extend this study throughout the country.
