In recent years,incidents of simultaneous exceedance of PM_(2.5)and O_(3) concentrations,termed PM_(2.5)and O_(3) co-pollution events,have frequently occurred in China.This study conducted atmospheric circulation anal...In recent years,incidents of simultaneous exceedance of PM_(2.5)and O_(3) concentrations,termed PM_(2.5)and O_(3) co-pollution events,have frequently occurred in China.This study conducted atmospheric circulation analysis on two typical co-pollution events in Beijing,occurring from July 22 to July 28,2019,and from April 25 to May 2,2020.These events were categorized into pre-trough southerly airflow type(Type 1)and post-trough northwest flow type(Type 2).Subsequently,sensitivity analyses using the GRAPES-CUACE adjoint model were performed to quantify the contributions of precursor emissions from Beijing and surrounding areas to PM_(2.5)and O_(3) concentrations in Beijing for two types of co-pollution.The results indicated that the spatiotemporal distribution of sensitive source region varied among different circulation types.Primary PM_(2.5)(PPM_(2.5))emissions from Hebei contributed the most to the 24-hour average PM_(2.5)(24-h PM_(2.5))peak concentration(41.6%-45.4%),followed by Beijing emissions(31%-35.7%).The maximum daily 8-hour average ozone peak concentration was primarily influenced by the emissions from Hebei and Beijing,with contribution ratios respectively of 32.8%-44.8% and 29%-42.1%.Additionally,NO_(x)emissions were the main contributors in Type 1,while both NO_(x)and VOCs emissions contributed similarly in Type 2.The iterative emission reduction experiments for two types of co-pollution indicated that Type 1 required emission reductions in NO_(x)(52.4%-71.8%)and VOCs(14.1%-33.8%)only.In contrast,Type 2 required combined emission reductions in NO_(x)(37.0%-65.1%),VOCs(30.7%-56.2%),and PPM_(2.5)(31%-46.9%).This study provided a reference for controlling co-pollution events and improving air quality in Beijing.展开更多
Melt ponds significantly affect Arctic sea ice thermodynamic processes.The melt pond parameterization scheme in the Los Alamos sea ice model(CICE6.0) can predict the volume,area fraction(the ratio between melt pond ar...Melt ponds significantly affect Arctic sea ice thermodynamic processes.The melt pond parameterization scheme in the Los Alamos sea ice model(CICE6.0) can predict the volume,area fraction(the ratio between melt pond area to sea ice area in a model grid),and depth of melt ponds.However,this scheme has some uncertain parameters that affect melt pond simulations.These parameters could be determined through a conventional parameter estimation method,which requires a large number of sensitivity simulations.The adjoint model can calculate the parameter sensitivity efficiently.In the present research,an adjoint model was developed for the CESM(Community Earth System Model) melt pond scheme.A melt pond parameter estimation algorithm was then developed based on the CICE6.0 sea ice model,melt pond adjoint model,and L-BFGS(Limited-memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfard-Shanno) minimization algorithm.The parameter estimation algorithm was verified under idealized conditions.By using MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)melt pond fraction observation as a constraint and the developed parameter estimation algorithm,the melt pond aspect ratio parameter in CESM scheme,which is defined as the ratio between pond depth and pond area fraction,was estimated every eight days during summertime for two different regions in the Arctic.One region was covered by multi-year ice(MYI) and the other by first-year ice(FYI).The estimated parameter was then used in simulations and the results show that:(1) the estimated parameter varies over time and is quite different for MYI and FYI;(2) the estimated parameter improved the simulation of the melt pond fraction.展开更多
Theoretical argumentation for so-called suitable spatial condition is conducted by the aid of homotopy framework to demonstrate that the proposed boundary condition does guarantee that the over-specification boundary ...Theoretical argumentation for so-called suitable spatial condition is conducted by the aid of homotopy framework to demonstrate that the proposed boundary condition does guarantee that the over-specification boundary condition resulting from an adjoint model on a limited-area is no longer an issue, and yet preserve its well-poseness and optimal character in the boundary setting. The ill-poseness of over-specified spatial boundary condition is in a sense, inevitable from an adjoint model since data assimilation processes have to adapt prescribed observations that used to be over-specified at the spatial boundaries of the modeling domain. In the view of pragmatic implement, the theoretical framework of our proposed condition for spatial boundaries indeed can be reduced to the hybrid formulation of nudging filter, radiation condition taking account of ambient forcing, together with Dirichlet kind of compatible boundary condition to the observations prescribed in data assimilation procedure. All of these treatments, no doubt, are very familiar to mesoscale modelers. Key words Variational data assimilation - Adjoint model - Over-specified partial boundary condition This research work is sponsored by the National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences (G1998040907), the Project of Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (BK99020), the President Foundation of Nanjing University (985) and the Scientific Research Foundation for the Returned Overseas Chinese Scholars, State Education Ministry.展开更多
The oil recovery enhancement is a major technical issue in the development of oil and gas fields. The smart oil field is an effective way to deal with the issue. It can achieve the maximum profits in the oil productio...The oil recovery enhancement is a major technical issue in the development of oil and gas fields. The smart oil field is an effective way to deal with the issue. It can achieve the maximum profits in the oil production at a minimum cost, and represents the future direction of oil fields. This paper discusses the core of the smart field theory, mainly the real-time optimization method of the injection-production rate of water-oil wells in a complex oil-gas filtration system. Computing speed is considered as the primary prerequisite because this research depends very much on reservoir numerical simulations and each simulation may take several hours or even days. An adjoint gradient method of the maximum theory is chosen for the solution of the optimal control variables. Conven-tional solving method of the maximum principle requires two solutions of time series： the forward reservoir simulation and the backward adjoint gradient calculation. In this paper, the two processes are combined together and a fully implicit reservoir simulator is developed. The matrixes of the adjoint equation are directly obtained from the fully implicit reservoir simulation, which accelera-tes the optimization solution and enhances the efficiency of the solving model. Meanwhile, a gradient projection algorithm combined with the maximum theory is used to constrain the parameters in the oil field development, which make it possible for the method to be applied to the water flooding optimization in a real oil field. The above theory is tested in several reservoir cases and it is shown that a better development effect of the oil field can be achieved.展开更多
We traced the adjoint sensitivity of a severe pollution event in December 2016 in Beijing using the adjoint model of the GRAPES–CUACE（Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System coupled with the China Meteoro...We traced the adjoint sensitivity of a severe pollution event in December 2016 in Beijing using the adjoint model of the GRAPES–CUACE（Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System coupled with the China Meteorological Administration Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environmental Forecasting System）. The key emission sources and periods affecting this severe pollution event are analyzed. For comaprison, we define 2000 Beijing Time 3 December 2016 as the objective time when PM2.5 reached the maximum concentration in Beijing. It is found that the local hourly sensitivity coefficient amounts to a peak of 9.31 μg m^–3 just 1 h before the objective time, suggesting that PM2.5 concentration responds rapidly to local emissions. The accumulated sensitivity coefficient in Beijing is large during the 20-h period prior to the objective time, showing that local emissions are the most important in this period.The accumulated contribution rates of emissions from Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and Shanxi are 34.2%, 3.0%, 49.4%,and 13.4%, respectively, in the 72-h period before the objective time. The evolution of hourly sensitivity coefficient shows that the main contribution from the Tianjin source occurs 1–26 h before the objective time and its peak hourly contribution is 0.59 μg m^-3 at 4 h before the objective time. The main contributions of the Hebei and Shanxi emission sources occur 1–54 and 14–53 h, respectively, before the objective time and their hourly sensitivity coefficients both show periodic fluctuations. The Hebei source shows three sensitivity coefficient peaks of 3.45, 4.27, and 0.71 μg m^–3 at 4, 16, and 38 h before the objective time, respectively. The sensitivity coefficient of the Shanxi source peaks twice, with values of 1.41 and 0.64 μg m^–3 at 24 and 45 h before the objective time, respectively. Overall, the adjoint model is effective in tracking the crucial sources and key periods of emissions for the severe pollution event.展开更多
In the first paper in this series, a variational data assimilation of ideal tropical cyclone （TC） tracks was performed for the statistical-dynamical prediction model SD-90 by the adjoint method, and a prediction of ...In the first paper in this series, a variational data assimilation of ideal tropical cyclone （TC） tracks was performed for the statistical-dynamical prediction model SD-90 by the adjoint method, and a prediction of TC tracks was made with good accuracy for tracks containing no sharp turns. In the present paper, the cases of real TC tracks are studied. Due to the complexity of TC motion, attention is paid to the diagnostic research of TC motion. First, five TC tracks are studied. Using the data of each entire TC track, by the adjoint method, five TC tracks are fitted well, and the forces acting on the TCs are retrieved. For a given TC, the distribution of the resultant of the retrieved force and Coriolis force well matches the corresponding TC track, i.e., when a TC turns, the resultant of the retrieved force and Coriolis force acts as a centripetal force, which means that the TC indeed moves like a particle; in particular, for TC 9911, the clockwise looping motion is also fitted well. And the distribution of the resultant appears to be periodic in some cases. Then, the present method is carried out for a portion of the track data for TC 9804, which indicates that when the amount of data for a TC track is sufficient, the algorithm is stable. And finally, the same algorithm is implemented for TCs with a double-eyewall structure, namely Bilis （2000） and Winnie （1997）, and the results prove the applicability of the algorithm to TCs with complicated mesoscale structures if the TC track data are obtained every three hours.展开更多
The challenge of establishing top-down constraints for regional emissions of fossil fuel CO_(2)(FFCO_(2))arises from the difficulty in distinguishing between atmospheric CO_(2)concentrations released from fossil fuels...The challenge of establishing top-down constraints for regional emissions of fossil fuel CO_(2)(FFCO_(2))arises from the difficulty in distinguishing between atmospheric CO_(2)concentrations released from fossil fuels and background variability,particularly owing to the influence of terrestrial biospheric fluxes.This necessitates the development of a regional inversion methodology based on atmospheric CO_(2)observations to verify bottom-up estimations independently.This study presents a promising approach for estimating China's FFCO_(2)emissions by incorporating the model residual errors(MREs)of the column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CO_(2)(XCO_(2))from FFCO_(2)emissions(MREff)retained in the analysis of natural flux optimization.China's FFCO_(2)emissions during the COVID-19 lockdown in 2020 are estimated using the GEOS-Chem adjoint model.The relationship between the MREff and FFCO_(2)is determined using the model based on a regional FFCO_(2)anomaly suggested by posterior NOx emissions from air-quality data assimilation.The MREff is typically one-tenth in magnitude,but some positively skewed outliers exceed 1 ppm because the prior emissions lack lockdown impacts,thereby exerting considerable observation forcing given the satellite retrieval uncertainties.We initialize the FFCO_(2)with posterior NOx emissions and optimize the colinear emission ratio.Synthetic data experiments demonstrate that this approach reduces the FFCO_(2)bias to less than 10%.The real-data experiments estimate 19%lower FFCO_(2)with GOSAT XCO_(2)and 26%lower with OCO-2 XCO_(2)than the bottom-up estimations.This study proves the feasibility of our regional FFCO_(2)inversion,highlighting the importance of addressing the outlier behaviors observed in satellite XCO_(2)retrievals.展开更多
This work presents the “n<sup>th</sup>-Order Feature Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems” (abbreviated as “n<sup>th</sup>-FASAM-N”), which will be shown to be the...This work presents the “n<sup>th</sup>-Order Feature Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems” (abbreviated as “n<sup>th</sup>-FASAM-N”), which will be shown to be the most efficient methodology for computing exact expressions of sensitivities, of any order, of model responses with respect to features of model parameters and, subsequently, with respect to the model’s uncertain parameters, boundaries, and internal interfaces. The unparalleled efficiency and accuracy of the n<sup>th</sup>-FASAM-N methodology stems from the maximal reduction of the number of adjoint computations (which are considered to be “large-scale” computations) for computing high-order sensitivities. When applying the n<sup>th</sup>-FASAM-N methodology to compute the second- and higher-order sensitivities, the number of large-scale computations is proportional to the number of “model features” as opposed to being proportional to the number of model parameters (which are considerably more than the number of features).When a model has no “feature” functions of parameters, but only comprises primary parameters, the n<sup>th</sup>-FASAM-N methodology becomes identical to the extant n<sup>th</sup> CASAM-N (“n<sup>th</sup>-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems”) methodology. Both the n<sup>th</sup>-FASAM-N and the n<sup>th</sup>-CASAM-N methodologies are formulated in linearly increasing higher-dimensional Hilbert spaces as opposed to exponentially increasing parameter-dimensional spaces thus overcoming the curse of dimensionality in sensitivity analysis of nonlinear systems. Both the n<sup>th</sup>-FASAM-N and the n<sup>th</sup>-CASAM-N are incomparably more efficient and more accurate than any other methods (statistical, finite differences, etc.) for computing exact expressions of response sensitivities of any order with respect to the model’s features and/or primary uncertain parameters, boundaries, and internal interfaces.展开更多
The strong nonlinearity of boundary layer parameterizations in atmospheric and oceanic models can cause difficulty for tangent linear models in approximating nonlinear perturbations when the time integration grows lon...The strong nonlinearity of boundary layer parameterizations in atmospheric and oceanic models can cause difficulty for tangent linear models in approximating nonlinear perturbations when the time integration grows longer. Consequently, the related 4—D variational data assimilation problems could be difficult to solve. A modified tangent linear model is built on the Mellor-Yamada turbulent closure (level 2.5) for 4-D variational data assimilation. For oceanic mixed layer model settings, the modified tangent linear model produces better finite amplitude, nonlinear perturbation than the full and simplified tangent linear models when the integration time is longer than one day. The corresponding variational data assimilation performances based on the adjoint of the modified tangent linear model are also improved compared with those adjoints of the full and simplified tangent linear models.展开更多
This work highlights the unparalleled efficiency of the “n<sup>th</sup>-Order Function/ Feature Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems” (n<sup>th</sup>-FASAM-N) by con...This work highlights the unparalleled efficiency of the “n<sup>th</sup>-Order Function/ Feature Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems” (n<sup>th</sup>-FASAM-N) by considering the well-known Nordheim-Fuchs reactor dynamics/safety model. This model describes a short-time self-limiting power excursion in a nuclear reactor system having a negative temperature coefficient in which a large amount of reactivity is suddenly inserted, either intentionally or by accident. This nonlinear paradigm model is sufficiently complex to model realistically self-limiting power excursions for short times yet admits closed-form exact expressions for the time-dependent neutron flux, temperature distribution and energy released during the transient power burst. The n<sup>th</sup>-FASAM-N methodology is compared to the extant “n<sup>th</sup>-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems” (n<sup>th</sup>-CASAM-N) showing that: (i) the 1<sup>st</sup>-FASAM-N and the 1<sup>st</sup>-CASAM-N methodologies are equally efficient for computing the first-order sensitivities;each methodology requires a single large-scale computation for solving the “First-Level Adjoint Sensitivity System” (1<sup>st</sup>-LASS);(ii) the 2<sup>nd</sup>-FASAM-N methodology is considerably more efficient than the 2<sup>nd</sup>-CASAM-N methodology for computing the second-order sensitivities since the number of feature-functions is much smaller than the number of primary parameters;specifically for the Nordheim-Fuchs model, the 2<sup>nd</sup>-FASAM-N methodology requires 2 large-scale computations to obtain all of the exact expressions of the 28 distinct second-order response sensitivities with respect to the model parameters while the 2<sup>nd</sup>-CASAM-N methodology requires 7 large-scale computations for obtaining these 28 second-order sensitivities;(iii) the 3<sup>rd</sup>-FASAM-N methodology is even more efficient than the 3<sup>rd</sup>-CASAM-N methodology: only 2 large-scale computations are needed to obtain the exact expressions of the 84 distinct third-order response sensitivities with respect to the Nordheim-Fuchs model’s parameters when applying the 3<sup>rd</sup>-FASAM-N methodology, while the application of the 3<sup>rd</sup>-CASAM-N methodology requires at least 22 large-scale computations for computing the same 84 distinct third-order sensitivities. Together, the n<sup>th</sup>-FASAM-N and the n<sup>th</sup>-CASAM-N methodologies are the most practical methodologies for computing response sensitivities of any order comprehensively and accurately, overcoming the curse of dimensionality in sensitivity analysis.展开更多
基于中尺度天气研究与预报(Weather Research and Forecasting,WRF)模式和区域多尺度空气质量(Community Multiscale Air Quality,CMAQ)模式及其伴随(ADJOINT)模式(WRF-CMAQ/ADJOINT模式)对2019年9月海南一次持续10日(9月21-30日)的臭氧...基于中尺度天气研究与预报(Weather Research and Forecasting,WRF)模式和区域多尺度空气质量(Community Multiscale Air Quality,CMAQ)模式及其伴随(ADJOINT)模式(WRF-CMAQ/ADJOINT模式)对2019年9月海南一次持续10日(9月21-30日)的臭氧(O_(3))污染事件进行模拟,对O_(3)污染进行来源解析,量化不同区域和物种排放源对O_(3)污染事件的贡献。结果表明:(1)污染事件期间,臭氧日最大8小时(MDA8-O_(3))平均质量浓度为167μg·m^(-3),其中MDA8-O_(3)峰值质量浓度达到186.1μg·m^(-3)。(2)WRF-CMAQ/ADJOINT模式能够较好模拟海南此次污染事件的O_(3)质量浓度变化过程,伴随模式揭示远距离区域传输是此次O_(3)污染的主要来源,其中海南外排放源平均贡献占比85%,本地排放源平均贡献占比15%,海南外排放源的贡献集中在珠三角地区。(3)对挥发性有机物(volatile organic compounds,VOCs)排放物种来源分析结果表明,异戊二烯在VOCs排放源中贡献最高,平均贡献占比为51%。此次O_(3)污染事件期间海南主要处于NO_(x)控制区,仅有海口处于VOCs和NO_(x)的协同控制区。由于远距离区域传输是此次O_(3)污染事件的主要来源,未来海南和珠三角的区域联防联控对于提高海南空气质量具有重要意义。展开更多
Adjoint method is widely used in aerodynamic design because only once solution of flow field is required for it to obtain the gradients of all design variables. However, the computational cost of adjoint vector is app...Adjoint method is widely used in aerodynamic design because only once solution of flow field is required for it to obtain the gradients of all design variables. However, the computational cost of adjoint vector is approximately equal to that of flow computation. In order to accelerate the solution of adjoint vector and improve the efficiency of adjoint-based optimization, machine learning for adjoint vector modeling is presented. Deep neural network (DNN) is employed to construct the mapping between the adjoint vector and the local flow variables. DNN can efficiently predict adjoint vector and its generalization is examined by a transonic drag reduction of NACA0012 airfoil. The results indicate that with negligible computational cost of the adjoint vector, the proposed DNN-based adjoint method can achieve the same optimization results as the traditional adjoint method.展开更多
The eddy viscosity of the ocean is an important parameter indicating the small-scale mixing process in the oceanic interior water column. Ekman wind-driven current model and adjoint assimilation technique are used to ...The eddy viscosity of the ocean is an important parameter indicating the small-scale mixing process in the oceanic interior water column. Ekman wind-driven current model and adjoint assimilation technique are used to calculate the vertical profiles of eddy viscosity by fitting model results to the observation data. The data used in the paper include observed wind data and ADCP data obtained at Wenchang Oil Rig on the SCS （the South China Sea） shelf in August 2002. Different simulations under different wind conditions are analyzed to explore how the eddy viscosity develops with varying wind field. The results show that the eddy viscosity endured gradual variations in the range of 10^-3 -10^-2 m^2 /s during the periods of wind changes. The mean eddy viscosity undergoing strong wind could rise by about 25% as compared to the value under weak wind.展开更多
Constructing sophisticated refractivity models is one of the key problems for the RFC(refractivity from clutter)technology. If prior knowledge of the local refractivity environment is available, more accurate paramete...Constructing sophisticated refractivity models is one of the key problems for the RFC(refractivity from clutter)technology. If prior knowledge of the local refractivity environment is available, more accurate parameterized model can be constructed from the statistical information, which in turn can be used to improve the quality of the local refractivity retrievals. The validity of this proposal was demonstrated by range-dependent refractivity profile inversions using the adjoint parabolic equation method to the Wallops’ 98 experimental data.展开更多
An HIV model was considered. The parameters of the model are estimated by adjoint dada assimilation method. The results showed the method is valid. This method has potential application to a wide variety of models in ...An HIV model was considered. The parameters of the model are estimated by adjoint dada assimilation method. The results showed the method is valid. This method has potential application to a wide variety of models in biomathematics.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2022YFC3701205)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41975173)the Science and Technology Development Fund of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(No.2021KJ011)。
文摘In recent years,incidents of simultaneous exceedance of PM_(2.5)and O_(3) concentrations,termed PM_(2.5)and O_(3) co-pollution events,have frequently occurred in China.This study conducted atmospheric circulation analysis on two typical co-pollution events in Beijing,occurring from July 22 to July 28,2019,and from April 25 to May 2,2020.These events were categorized into pre-trough southerly airflow type(Type 1)and post-trough northwest flow type(Type 2).Subsequently,sensitivity analyses using the GRAPES-CUACE adjoint model were performed to quantify the contributions of precursor emissions from Beijing and surrounding areas to PM_(2.5)and O_(3) concentrations in Beijing for two types of co-pollution.The results indicated that the spatiotemporal distribution of sensitive source region varied among different circulation types.Primary PM_(2.5)(PPM_(2.5))emissions from Hebei contributed the most to the 24-hour average PM_(2.5)(24-h PM_(2.5))peak concentration(41.6%-45.4%),followed by Beijing emissions(31%-35.7%).The maximum daily 8-hour average ozone peak concentration was primarily influenced by the emissions from Hebei and Beijing,with contribution ratios respectively of 32.8%-44.8% and 29%-42.1%.Additionally,NO_(x)emissions were the main contributors in Type 1,while both NO_(x)and VOCs emissions contributed similarly in Type 2.The iterative emission reduction experiments for two types of co-pollution indicated that Type 1 required emission reductions in NO_(x)(52.4%-71.8%)and VOCs(14.1%-33.8%)only.In contrast,Type 2 required combined emission reductions in NO_(x)(37.0%-65.1%),VOCs(30.7%-56.2%),and PPM_(2.5)(31%-46.9%).This study provided a reference for controlling co-pollution events and improving air quality in Beijing.
基金funded by the National Key R&D Program of China (Grant No.2018YFA0605904)。
文摘Melt ponds significantly affect Arctic sea ice thermodynamic processes.The melt pond parameterization scheme in the Los Alamos sea ice model(CICE6.0) can predict the volume,area fraction(the ratio between melt pond area to sea ice area in a model grid),and depth of melt ponds.However,this scheme has some uncertain parameters that affect melt pond simulations.These parameters could be determined through a conventional parameter estimation method,which requires a large number of sensitivity simulations.The adjoint model can calculate the parameter sensitivity efficiently.In the present research,an adjoint model was developed for the CESM(Community Earth System Model) melt pond scheme.A melt pond parameter estimation algorithm was then developed based on the CICE6.0 sea ice model,melt pond adjoint model,and L-BFGS(Limited-memory Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfard-Shanno) minimization algorithm.The parameter estimation algorithm was verified under idealized conditions.By using MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)melt pond fraction observation as a constraint and the developed parameter estimation algorithm,the melt pond aspect ratio parameter in CESM scheme,which is defined as the ratio between pond depth and pond area fraction,was estimated every eight days during summertime for two different regions in the Arctic.One region was covered by multi-year ice(MYI) and the other by first-year ice(FYI).The estimated parameter was then used in simulations and the results show that:(1) the estimated parameter varies over time and is quite different for MYI and FYI;(2) the estimated parameter improved the simulation of the melt pond fraction.
基金the National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences(G1998040907)the Project of Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Pr
文摘Theoretical argumentation for so-called suitable spatial condition is conducted by the aid of homotopy framework to demonstrate that the proposed boundary condition does guarantee that the over-specification boundary condition resulting from an adjoint model on a limited-area is no longer an issue, and yet preserve its well-poseness and optimal character in the boundary setting. The ill-poseness of over-specified spatial boundary condition is in a sense, inevitable from an adjoint model since data assimilation processes have to adapt prescribed observations that used to be over-specified at the spatial boundaries of the modeling domain. In the view of pragmatic implement, the theoretical framework of our proposed condition for spatial boundaries indeed can be reduced to the hybrid formulation of nudging filter, radiation condition taking account of ambient forcing, together with Dirichlet kind of compatible boundary condition to the observations prescribed in data assimilation procedure. All of these treatments, no doubt, are very familiar to mesoscale modelers. Key words Variational data assimilation - Adjoint model - Over-specified partial boundary condition This research work is sponsored by the National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences (G1998040907), the Project of Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province (BK99020), the President Foundation of Nanjing University (985) and the Scientific Research Foundation for the Returned Overseas Chinese Scholars, State Education Ministry.
基金Project supported by the China Important National Science and Technology Specific Projects(Grant No.2011ZX05024-002-008)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant No.13CX02053A)the Changjiang Scholars and Innovative Reserch Team in University(Grant No.IRT1294)
文摘The oil recovery enhancement is a major technical issue in the development of oil and gas fields. The smart oil field is an effective way to deal with the issue. It can achieve the maximum profits in the oil production at a minimum cost, and represents the future direction of oil fields. This paper discusses the core of the smart field theory, mainly the real-time optimization method of the injection-production rate of water-oil wells in a complex oil-gas filtration system. Computing speed is considered as the primary prerequisite because this research depends very much on reservoir numerical simulations and each simulation may take several hours or even days. An adjoint gradient method of the maximum theory is chosen for the solution of the optimal control variables. Conven-tional solving method of the maximum principle requires two solutions of time series： the forward reservoir simulation and the backward adjoint gradient calculation. In this paper, the two processes are combined together and a fully implicit reservoir simulator is developed. The matrixes of the adjoint equation are directly obtained from the fully implicit reservoir simulation, which accelera-tes the optimization solution and enhances the efficiency of the solving model. Meanwhile, a gradient projection algorithm combined with the maximum theory is used to constrain the parameters in the oil field development, which make it possible for the method to be applied to the water flooding optimization in a real oil field. The above theory is tested in several reservoir cases and it is shown that a better development effect of the oil field can be achieved.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41575151 and 91644223)
文摘We traced the adjoint sensitivity of a severe pollution event in December 2016 in Beijing using the adjoint model of the GRAPES–CUACE（Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System coupled with the China Meteorological Administration Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environmental Forecasting System）. The key emission sources and periods affecting this severe pollution event are analyzed. For comaprison, we define 2000 Beijing Time 3 December 2016 as the objective time when PM2.5 reached the maximum concentration in Beijing. It is found that the local hourly sensitivity coefficient amounts to a peak of 9.31 μg m^–3 just 1 h before the objective time, suggesting that PM2.5 concentration responds rapidly to local emissions. The accumulated sensitivity coefficient in Beijing is large during the 20-h period prior to the objective time, showing that local emissions are the most important in this period.The accumulated contribution rates of emissions from Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, and Shanxi are 34.2%, 3.0%, 49.4%,and 13.4%, respectively, in the 72-h period before the objective time. The evolution of hourly sensitivity coefficient shows that the main contribution from the Tianjin source occurs 1–26 h before the objective time and its peak hourly contribution is 0.59 μg m^-3 at 4 h before the objective time. The main contributions of the Hebei and Shanxi emission sources occur 1–54 and 14–53 h, respectively, before the objective time and their hourly sensitivity coefficients both show periodic fluctuations. The Hebei source shows three sensitivity coefficient peaks of 3.45, 4.27, and 0.71 μg m^–3 at 4, 16, and 38 h before the objective time, respectively. The sensitivity coefficient of the Shanxi source peaks twice, with values of 1.41 and 0.64 μg m^–3 at 24 and 45 h before the objective time, respectively. Overall, the adjoint model is effective in tracking the crucial sources and key periods of emissions for the severe pollution event.
基金This work was supported jointly by the Typhoon Foundation of Shanghaiby LASC of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciencesby the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 40633030.
文摘In the first paper in this series, a variational data assimilation of ideal tropical cyclone （TC） tracks was performed for the statistical-dynamical prediction model SD-90 by the adjoint method, and a prediction of TC tracks was made with good accuracy for tracks containing no sharp turns. In the present paper, the cases of real TC tracks are studied. Due to the complexity of TC motion, attention is paid to the diagnostic research of TC motion. First, five TC tracks are studied. Using the data of each entire TC track, by the adjoint method, five TC tracks are fitted well, and the forces acting on the TCs are retrieved. For a given TC, the distribution of the resultant of the retrieved force and Coriolis force well matches the corresponding TC track, i.e., when a TC turns, the resultant of the retrieved force and Coriolis force acts as a centripetal force, which means that the TC indeed moves like a particle; in particular, for TC 9911, the clockwise looping motion is also fitted well. And the distribution of the resultant appears to be periodic in some cases. Then, the present method is carried out for a portion of the track data for TC 9804, which indicates that when the amount of data for a TC track is sufficient, the algorithm is stable. And finally, the same algorithm is implemented for TCs with a double-eyewall structure, namely Bilis （2000） and Winnie （1997）, and the results prove the applicability of the algorithm to TCs with complicated mesoscale structures if the TC track data are obtained every three hours.
基金jointly supported by the National Key Research and Development Plan(Grant No.2023YFB3907405)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42175132)the Chinese Academy of Sciences Project for Young Scientists in Basic Research(Grant No.YSBR-037)。
文摘The challenge of establishing top-down constraints for regional emissions of fossil fuel CO_(2)(FFCO_(2))arises from the difficulty in distinguishing between atmospheric CO_(2)concentrations released from fossil fuels and background variability,particularly owing to the influence of terrestrial biospheric fluxes.This necessitates the development of a regional inversion methodology based on atmospheric CO_(2)observations to verify bottom-up estimations independently.This study presents a promising approach for estimating China's FFCO_(2)emissions by incorporating the model residual errors(MREs)of the column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CO_(2)(XCO_(2))from FFCO_(2)emissions(MREff)retained in the analysis of natural flux optimization.China's FFCO_(2)emissions during the COVID-19 lockdown in 2020 are estimated using the GEOS-Chem adjoint model.The relationship between the MREff and FFCO_(2)is determined using the model based on a regional FFCO_(2)anomaly suggested by posterior NOx emissions from air-quality data assimilation.The MREff is typically one-tenth in magnitude,but some positively skewed outliers exceed 1 ppm because the prior emissions lack lockdown impacts,thereby exerting considerable observation forcing given the satellite retrieval uncertainties.We initialize the FFCO_(2)with posterior NOx emissions and optimize the colinear emission ratio.Synthetic data experiments demonstrate that this approach reduces the FFCO_(2)bias to less than 10%.The real-data experiments estimate 19%lower FFCO_(2)with GOSAT XCO_(2)and 26%lower with OCO-2 XCO_(2)than the bottom-up estimations.This study proves the feasibility of our regional FFCO_(2)inversion,highlighting the importance of addressing the outlier behaviors observed in satellite XCO_(2)retrievals.
文摘This work presents the “n<sup>th</sup>-Order Feature Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems” (abbreviated as “n<sup>th</sup>-FASAM-N”), which will be shown to be the most efficient methodology for computing exact expressions of sensitivities, of any order, of model responses with respect to features of model parameters and, subsequently, with respect to the model’s uncertain parameters, boundaries, and internal interfaces. The unparalleled efficiency and accuracy of the n<sup>th</sup>-FASAM-N methodology stems from the maximal reduction of the number of adjoint computations (which are considered to be “large-scale” computations) for computing high-order sensitivities. When applying the n<sup>th</sup>-FASAM-N methodology to compute the second- and higher-order sensitivities, the number of large-scale computations is proportional to the number of “model features” as opposed to being proportional to the number of model parameters (which are considerably more than the number of features).When a model has no “feature” functions of parameters, but only comprises primary parameters, the n<sup>th</sup>-FASAM-N methodology becomes identical to the extant n<sup>th</sup> CASAM-N (“n<sup>th</sup>-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems”) methodology. Both the n<sup>th</sup>-FASAM-N and the n<sup>th</sup>-CASAM-N methodologies are formulated in linearly increasing higher-dimensional Hilbert spaces as opposed to exponentially increasing parameter-dimensional spaces thus overcoming the curse of dimensionality in sensitivity analysis of nonlinear systems. Both the n<sup>th</sup>-FASAM-N and the n<sup>th</sup>-CASAM-N are incomparably more efficient and more accurate than any other methods (statistical, finite differences, etc.) for computing exact expressions of response sensitivities of any order with respect to the model’s features and/or primary uncertain parameters, boundaries, and internal interfaces.
基金Acknowledgments. The authors would like to thank Prof. Z. Yuan for her numerous suggestions in the writing of this paper. This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.40176009), the National Key Programme for Devel
文摘The strong nonlinearity of boundary layer parameterizations in atmospheric and oceanic models can cause difficulty for tangent linear models in approximating nonlinear perturbations when the time integration grows longer. Consequently, the related 4—D variational data assimilation problems could be difficult to solve. A modified tangent linear model is built on the Mellor-Yamada turbulent closure (level 2.5) for 4-D variational data assimilation. For oceanic mixed layer model settings, the modified tangent linear model produces better finite amplitude, nonlinear perturbation than the full and simplified tangent linear models when the integration time is longer than one day. The corresponding variational data assimilation performances based on the adjoint of the modified tangent linear model are also improved compared with those adjoints of the full and simplified tangent linear models.
文摘This work highlights the unparalleled efficiency of the “n<sup>th</sup>-Order Function/ Feature Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems” (n<sup>th</sup>-FASAM-N) by considering the well-known Nordheim-Fuchs reactor dynamics/safety model. This model describes a short-time self-limiting power excursion in a nuclear reactor system having a negative temperature coefficient in which a large amount of reactivity is suddenly inserted, either intentionally or by accident. This nonlinear paradigm model is sufficiently complex to model realistically self-limiting power excursions for short times yet admits closed-form exact expressions for the time-dependent neutron flux, temperature distribution and energy released during the transient power burst. The n<sup>th</sup>-FASAM-N methodology is compared to the extant “n<sup>th</sup>-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems” (n<sup>th</sup>-CASAM-N) showing that: (i) the 1<sup>st</sup>-FASAM-N and the 1<sup>st</sup>-CASAM-N methodologies are equally efficient for computing the first-order sensitivities;each methodology requires a single large-scale computation for solving the “First-Level Adjoint Sensitivity System” (1<sup>st</sup>-LASS);(ii) the 2<sup>nd</sup>-FASAM-N methodology is considerably more efficient than the 2<sup>nd</sup>-CASAM-N methodology for computing the second-order sensitivities since the number of feature-functions is much smaller than the number of primary parameters;specifically for the Nordheim-Fuchs model, the 2<sup>nd</sup>-FASAM-N methodology requires 2 large-scale computations to obtain all of the exact expressions of the 28 distinct second-order response sensitivities with respect to the model parameters while the 2<sup>nd</sup>-CASAM-N methodology requires 7 large-scale computations for obtaining these 28 second-order sensitivities;(iii) the 3<sup>rd</sup>-FASAM-N methodology is even more efficient than the 3<sup>rd</sup>-CASAM-N methodology: only 2 large-scale computations are needed to obtain the exact expressions of the 84 distinct third-order response sensitivities with respect to the Nordheim-Fuchs model’s parameters when applying the 3<sup>rd</sup>-FASAM-N methodology, while the application of the 3<sup>rd</sup>-CASAM-N methodology requires at least 22 large-scale computations for computing the same 84 distinct third-order sensitivities. Together, the n<sup>th</sup>-FASAM-N and the n<sup>th</sup>-CASAM-N methodologies are the most practical methodologies for computing response sensitivities of any order comprehensively and accurately, overcoming the curse of dimensionality in sensitivity analysis.
文摘基于中尺度天气研究与预报(Weather Research and Forecasting,WRF)模式和区域多尺度空气质量(Community Multiscale Air Quality,CMAQ)模式及其伴随(ADJOINT)模式(WRF-CMAQ/ADJOINT模式)对2019年9月海南一次持续10日(9月21-30日)的臭氧(O_(3))污染事件进行模拟,对O_(3)污染进行来源解析,量化不同区域和物种排放源对O_(3)污染事件的贡献。结果表明:(1)污染事件期间,臭氧日最大8小时(MDA8-O_(3))平均质量浓度为167μg·m^(-3),其中MDA8-O_(3)峰值质量浓度达到186.1μg·m^(-3)。(2)WRF-CMAQ/ADJOINT模式能够较好模拟海南此次污染事件的O_(3)质量浓度变化过程,伴随模式揭示远距离区域传输是此次O_(3)污染的主要来源,其中海南外排放源平均贡献占比85%,本地排放源平均贡献占比15%,海南外排放源的贡献集中在珠三角地区。(3)对挥发性有机物(volatile organic compounds,VOCs)排放物种来源分析结果表明,异戊二烯在VOCs排放源中贡献最高,平均贡献占比为51%。此次O_(3)污染事件期间海南主要处于NO_(x)控制区,仅有海口处于VOCs和NO_(x)的协同控制区。由于远距离区域传输是此次O_(3)污染事件的主要来源,未来海南和珠三角的区域联防联控对于提高海南空气质量具有重要意义。
基金This work was supported by the National Numerical Wind tunnel Project(Grant NNW2018-ZT1B01)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant 91852115).
文摘Adjoint method is widely used in aerodynamic design because only once solution of flow field is required for it to obtain the gradients of all design variables. However, the computational cost of adjoint vector is approximately equal to that of flow computation. In order to accelerate the solution of adjoint vector and improve the efficiency of adjoint-based optimization, machine learning for adjoint vector modeling is presented. Deep neural network (DNN) is employed to construct the mapping between the adjoint vector and the local flow variables. DNN can efficiently predict adjoint vector and its generalization is examined by a transonic drag reduction of NACA0012 airfoil. The results indicate that with negligible computational cost of the adjoint vector, the proposed DNN-based adjoint method can achieve the same optimization results as the traditional adjoint method.
基金The National Key Basic Research Program of China under contract No. 2005CB422303the International Cooperation Program Project under contract No. 2004DFB02700the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract No. 40552002
文摘The eddy viscosity of the ocean is an important parameter indicating the small-scale mixing process in the oceanic interior water column. Ekman wind-driven current model and adjoint assimilation technique are used to calculate the vertical profiles of eddy viscosity by fitting model results to the observation data. The data used in the paper include observed wind data and ADCP data obtained at Wenchang Oil Rig on the SCS （the South China Sea） shelf in August 2002. Different simulations under different wind conditions are analyzed to explore how the eddy viscosity develops with varying wind field. The results show that the eddy viscosity endured gradual variations in the range of 10^-3 -10^-2 m^2 /s during the periods of wind changes. The mean eddy viscosity undergoing strong wind could rise by about 25% as compared to the value under weak wind.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41775027 and 41405025)
文摘Constructing sophisticated refractivity models is one of the key problems for the RFC(refractivity from clutter)technology. If prior knowledge of the local refractivity environment is available, more accurate parameterized model can be constructed from the statistical information, which in turn can be used to improve the quality of the local refractivity retrievals. The validity of this proposal was demonstrated by range-dependent refractivity profile inversions using the adjoint parabolic equation method to the Wallops’ 98 experimental data.
文摘An HIV model was considered. The parameters of the model are estimated by adjoint dada assimilation method. The results showed the method is valid. This method has potential application to a wide variety of models in biomathematics.
