This study explored the observation strategy and effectiveness of synoptic-scale adaptive observations for improving sea fog prediction in coastal regions around the Bohai Sea based on a poorly predicted fog event wit...This study explored the observation strategy and effectiveness of synoptic-scale adaptive observations for improving sea fog prediction in coastal regions around the Bohai Sea based on a poorly predicted fog event with cold-front synoptic pattern(CFSP).An ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation system for the Weather Research and Forecasting model was adopted with ensemble sensitivity analysis(ESA).By comparing observation impacts(estimated from a 40-member ensemble with ESA)among different meteorological observation variables and pressure levels,the temperature at 850 hPa and surface layer(850 hPa-and-surface temperature)was selected as the target observation type.Additionally,the area with large observation impacts for this observation type was predicted in the transition region of the surface low–high system.This area developed southward with the low and moved eastward with the low–high system,which could be explained by the main features of CFSP.Moreover,both experiments assimilating synthetic and real observations showed that assimilating 850 hPa-and-surface temperature observations generally yielded better fog coverage forecasts in areas with greater observation impacts than areas with smaller impacts.However,the effectiveness of adaptive observations was reduced when real observations rather than synthetic observations were assimilated,which is possibly due to factors such as observation and model errors.The main conclusions above were verified by another typical fog event with CFSP characteristics.Results of this study highlight the importance of improved initial conditions in the transition region of the low–high system for improving fog prediction and provide scientific guidance for implementing an observation network for fog forecasting over the Bohai Sea.展开更多
An adjoint sensitivity analysis of one mesoscale low on the mei-yu Front is presented in this paper. The sensitivity gradient of simulation error dry energy with respect to initial analysis is calculated. And after ve...An adjoint sensitivity analysis of one mesoscale low on the mei-yu Front is presented in this paper. The sensitivity gradient of simulation error dry energy with respect to initial analysis is calculated. And after verifying the ability of a tangent linear and adjoint model to describe small perturbations in the nonlinear model, the sensitivity gradient analysis is implemented in detail. The sensitivity gradient with respect to different physical fields are not uniform in intensity, simulation error is most sensitive to the vapor mixed ratio. The localization and consistency are obvious characters of horizontal distribution of the sensitivity gradient, which is useful for the practical implementation of adaptive observation. The sensitivity region tilts to the northwest with height increasing; the singular vector calculation proves that this tilting characterizes a quick-growing structure, which denotes that using the leading singular vectors to decide the adaptive observation region is proper. When connected with simulation of a mesoscale low on the mei-yu Front, the sensitivity gradient has the following physical characters： the obvious sensitive region is mesoscale, concentrated in the middle-upper troposphere, and locates around the key system; and the sensitivity gradient of different physical fields correlates dynamically.展开更多
In order to investigate whether adaptive observations can improve tropical cyclone （TC） intensity forecasts,observing system simulation experiments （OSSEs） were conducted for 20 TC cases originating in the western...In order to investigate whether adaptive observations can improve tropical cyclone （TC） intensity forecasts,observing system simulation experiments （OSSEs） were conducted for 20 TC cases originating in the western North Pacific during the 2010 season according to the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） sensitivity,using the fifth version of the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model （MM5） and its 3DVAR assimilation system.A new intensity index was defined as the sum of the number of grid points within an allocated square centered at the corresponding forecast TC central position,that satisfy constraints associated with the Sea Level Pressure （SLP）,near-surface horizontal wind speed,and accumulated convective precipitation.The higher the index value is,the more intense the TC is.The impacts of the CNOP sensitivity on the intensity forecast were then estimated.The OSSE results showed that for 15 of the 20 cases there were improvements,with reductions of forecast errors in the range of 0.12％-8.59％,which were much less than in track forecasts.The indication,therefore,is that the CNOP sensitivity has a generally positive effect on TC intensity forecasts,but only to a certain degree.We conclude that factors such as the use of a coupled model,or better initialization of the TC vortex,are more important for an accurate TC intensity forecast.展开更多
The Ensemble Transform（ET） method has been shown to be useful in providing guidance for adaptive observation deployment.It predicts forecast error variance reduction for each possible deployment using its correspond...The Ensemble Transform（ET） method has been shown to be useful in providing guidance for adaptive observation deployment.It predicts forecast error variance reduction for each possible deployment using its corresponding transformation matrix in an ensemble subspace.In this paper,a new ET-based sensitivity（ETS） method,which calculates the gradient of forecast error variance reduction in terms of analysis error variance reduction,is proposed to specify regions for possible adaptive observations.ETS is a first order approximation of the ET;it requires just one calculation of a transformation matrix,increasing computational efficiency（60%-80%reduction in computational cost）.An explicit mathematical formulation of the ETS gradient is derived and described.Both the ET and ETS methods are applied to the Hurricane Irene（2011） case and a heavy rainfall case for comparison.The numerical results imply that the sensitive areas estimated by the ETS and ET are similar.However,ETS is much more efficient,particularly when the resolution is higher and the number of ensemble members is larger.展开更多
Temperature （T） and salinity （S） profiles from conductivity-temperature-depth data collected during the Northern South China Sea Open Cruise from August 16 to September 13, 2008 are assimilated using Ensemble Kalm...Temperature （T） and salinity （S） profiles from conductivity-temperature-depth data collected during the Northern South China Sea Open Cruise from August 16 to September 13, 2008 are assimilated using Ensemble Kalman Filter （EnKF）. An adaptive observational error strategy is used to prevent filter from diverging. In the meantime, aiming at the limited improvement in some sites caused by the T and S biases in the model, a T-S constraint scheme is adopted to improve the assimilation performance, where T and S are separately updated at these locations. Validation is performed by comparing assimilated outputs with independent in situ data （satellite remote sensing sea level anomaly （SLA）, the OSCAR velocity product and shipboard ADCP）. The results show that the new EnKF assimilation scheme can significantly reduce the root mean square error （RMSE） of oceanic T and S compared with the control run and traditional EnKF. The system can also improve the simulation of circulations and SLA.展开更多
This study examines the effectiveness of adaptive observation experiments using the ensemble transformation sensitivity(ETS) method to improve precipitation forecasts during heavy rainfall events in South China and th...This study examines the effectiveness of adaptive observation experiments using the ensemble transformation sensitivity(ETS) method to improve precipitation forecasts during heavy rainfall events in South China and the Sichuan Basin. High-resolution numerical models are employed to simulate adaptive observations. By identifying the sensitive areas of key weather system positions 42 hours before heavy rainfall events, the adaptive observations improve the prediction of jet streams, strong winds, and shear lines, which are essential for accurate heavy rainfall forecasting. This improvement is reflected in both the precipitation structure and location accuracy within the verification region. In South China, targeted observations enhance rainfall predictions by improving water vapor transport. In the Sichuan Basin, adaptive observations refine water vapor transport and adjust vortex dynamics. This research highlights the importance of accurately predicting shear lines and jet streams for forecasting heavy rainfall in these areas. Overall, this study found that adaptive observation enhances the precipitation forecast skills of the structure and location for heavy rainfall in South China and the Sichuan Basin, emphasizing their potential utility in operational numerical weather prediction.展开更多
Using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) approach, sensitive areas of adaptive observation for predicting the seasonal reduction of the upstream Kuroshio transport(UKT) were investigated in the Regio...Using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) approach, sensitive areas of adaptive observation for predicting the seasonal reduction of the upstream Kuroshio transport(UKT) were investigated in the Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS). The vertically integrated energy scheme was utilized to identify sensitive areas based on two factors: the specific energy scheme and sensitive area size. Totally 27 sensitive areas, characterized by three energy schemes and nine sensitive area sizes, were evaluated. The results show that the total energy(TE) scheme was the most effective because it includes both the kinetic and potential components of CNOP. Generally, larger sensitive areas led to better predictions. The size of 0.5% of the model domain was chosen after balancing the effectiveness and efficiency of adaptive observation. The optimal sensitive area OSen was determined accordingly. Sensitivity experiments on OSen were then conducted, and the following results were obtained:(1) In OSen, initial errors with CNOP or CNOP-like patterns were more likely to yield worse predictions, and the CNOP pattern was the most unstable.(2) Initial errors in OSen rather than in other regions tended to cause larger prediction errors. Therefore, adaptive observation in OSen can be more beneficial for predicting the seasonal reduction of UKT.展开更多
There was a new concept of ‘adaptive or targeting observation’ in recent years, which is anadditional and targeting observation based on the existing and fixed observing network for the atmosphere on theimpacted reg...There was a new concept of ‘adaptive or targeting observation’ in recent years, which is anadditional and targeting observation based on the existing and fixed observing network for the atmosphere on theimpacted region. Dropsonde is one of the important observing instruments in the adaptive or targetingobservation. In this paper, GRAPES, the next generation of numerical weather prediction system of China hasbeen used. The impacts on the typhoon Dujuan (No.200315) forecast in experiments with dropsonde have beenstudied and experiments on sensitivity have also been done. It was found that the forecasts of the elements havebeen improved obviously with the use of dropsonde, such as the path, the center location, and the intensity oftyphoon. It was also found in the sensitivity studies that the setting of deviation structure also has obviousimpacts on the forecast for typhoons. It is not true that the simulation is better when the proportion of the data ofdropsonde is larger in the course to modify the background.展开更多
In this paper, an enhanced adaptive nonlinear extended state observer (EANESO) for single-input single-output pure feedback systems in the presence of external time-varying disturbances is proposed. In this paper, a n...In this paper, an enhanced adaptive nonlinear extended state observer (EANESO) for single-input single-output pure feedback systems in the presence of external time-varying disturbances is proposed. In this paper, a nonlinear system with matched and mismatched disturbances is considered. The conventional extended state observer (ESO) can only be applied to systems that are in the form of integral chains. Moreover, this method has limitations in the face of mismatched disturbances. In the presence of time-varying disturbances, the traditional ESOs cannot estimate the disturbances accurately. To overcome this limitation, an EANESO is proposed in this paper. The main idea is to design the nonlinear ESO (NESO) to estimate the states of the system and multiple disturbances simultaneously. The observer gains are considered time-varying and adjusted with adaptation laws to improve the estimation accuracy and overcome the peaking phenomenon. Next, the proposed controller is designed based on output feedback to eliminate the effects of multiple disturbances and stabilize the closed-loop system. Subsequently, the stability analysis of the closed-loop system and convergence of the observer error are discussed. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the inverted pendulum system. The simulated results show good performance of the proposed method as compared with a recently published scheme in the related literature.展开更多
Based on the linear parameter-varying （LPV） adaptive observer, the robust fault diagnosis for a class of LPV systems with external disturbances is studied. Since the flight control system （FCS） is nonlinear and ti...Based on the linear parameter-varying （LPV） adaptive observer, the robust fault diagnosis for a class of LPV systems with external disturbances is studied. Since the flight control system （FCS） is nonlinear and time-varying, the LPV technique is used for FCS. And then the adaptive fault estimation algorithm based on the LPV adaptive observer is proposed to estimate the fault. To minimize the effect of disturbances on the fault estimation, the H~ robust performance index is introduced to design the LPV adaptive fault diagnosis observer and the fault estimation algorithm. The result shows that the method has good estimation performance and is robust to external disturbances. The design method is presented in terms of linear matrix inequalities （LMIs）. Finally, a helicopter LPV FCS model with the actuator fault is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.展开更多
The sensitive regions of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and the first singular vector (FSV) for a northwest Pacific typhoon case are reported in this paper. A large number of probes have been desi...The sensitive regions of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and the first singular vector (FSV) for a northwest Pacific typhoon case are reported in this paper. A large number of probes have been designed in the above regions and the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) techniques are utilized to examine which approach can locate more appropriate regions for typhoon adaptive observations. The results show that, in general, the majority of the probes in the sensitive regions of CNOPs can reduce more forecast error variance than the probes in the sensitive regions of FSV. This implies that adaptive observations in the sensitive regions of CNOPs are more effective than in the sensitive regions of FSV. Furthermore, the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by the best probe identified by CNOPs is twice the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by FSV. This implies that dropping sondes, which is the best probe identified by CNOPs, can improve the forecast more than the best probe identified by FSV. These results indicate that the sensitive regions identified by CNOPs are more appropriate for adaptive observations than those identified by FSV.展开更多
The current research of master cylinder pressure estimation mainly relies on hydraulic characteristic or vehicle dynamics.But they are not independently applicable to any environment and have their own scope of applic...The current research of master cylinder pressure estimation mainly relies on hydraulic characteristic or vehicle dynamics.But they are not independently applicable to any environment and have their own scope of application.In addition,about the master cylinder pressure control,there are few studies that can simultaneously balance pressure building accuracy,speed,and prevent pressure overshoot and jitter.In this paper,an adaptative fusion method based on electro-hydraulic characteristic and vehicle mode is proposed to estimate the master cylinder pressure.The fusion strategy is mainly based on the prediction performance of two algorithms under different vehicle speeds,pressures,and ABS states.Apart from this,this article also includes real-time prediction of the friction model based on RLS to improve the accuracy of the electro-hydraulic mode.In order to simultaneously balance pressure control accuracy,response speed,and prevent overshoot and jitter,this article proposes an adaptative LQR controller for MC pressure control which uses fuzzy-logic controller to adjust the weights of LQR controller based on target pressure and difference compared with actual pressure.Through mode-in-loop and hardware-in-loop tests in ramp,step and sinusoidal response,the whole estimation and control system is verified based on real hydraulic system and the performance is satisfactory under these scenes.This research proposes an adaptative pressure estimation and control architecture for integrated electro-hydraulic brake system which could eliminate pressure sensors in typical scenarios and ensure the comprehensive performance of pressure control.展开更多
Modified adaptive observer based backstepping control system for dynamic positioning of ship is proposed. As an improvement, the adaptive observer takes the first-order wave frequency model and the bias term which rep...Modified adaptive observer based backstepping control system for dynamic positioning of ship is proposed. As an improvement, the adaptive observer takes the first-order wave frequency model and the bias term which represent the slowly varying environmental disturbances and the unmodeled dynamics. Thus, the wave-frequency motions are filtered out, and only the reconstructed low-frequency motions are sent as inputs of the controller. Furthermore, as the ship dynamics parameters are unknown, the adaptive estimation law is designed for both the unknown ship dynamics and the unmeasured state variables. Based on the estimated states and parameters, backstepping controller considering the integral action is designed. Global exponential stability （GES） for the total system is proved using Lyapunov direct method. Simulation results show a good performance of the observer and control system.展开更多
A novel H∞ tracking-based decentralized indirect adaptive output feedback fuzzy controller for a class of uncertain large-scale nonlinear systems is developed. By virtue of the proper filtering of the observation err...A novel H∞ tracking-based decentralized indirect adaptive output feedback fuzzy controller for a class of uncertain large-scale nonlinear systems is developed. By virtue of the proper filtering of the observation error dynamics, the observer-based decentralized indirect adaptive fuzzy control scheme is presented for a class of large-scale nonlinear systems using the combination of H∞ tracking technique, a fuzzy adaptive observer and fuzzy inference systems. The output feedback and adaptation mechanisms are both robust and implementable indeed owing to their freedom from the unavailable observation error vector. All the signals of the closed-loop largescale system are guaranteed to stay uniformly bounded and the output errors take on H∞ tracking performance. Simulation results substantiate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.展开更多
In this paper, chaos synchronization in the presence of parameter uncertainty, observer gain perturbation and exogenous input disturbance is considered. A nonlinear non-fragile proportional-integral （PI） adaptive ob...In this paper, chaos synchronization in the presence of parameter uncertainty, observer gain perturbation and exogenous input disturbance is considered. A nonlinear non-fragile proportional-integral （PI） adaptive observer is designed for the synchronization of chaotic systems; its stability conditions based on the Lyapunov technique are derived. The observer proportional and integral gains, by converting the conditions into linear matrix inequality （LMI）, are optimally selected from solutions that satisfy the observer stability conditions such that the effect of disturbance on the synchronization error becomes minimized. To show the effectiveness of the proposed method, simulation results for the synchronization of a Lorenz chaotic system with unknown parameters in the presence of an exogenous input disturbance and abrupt gain perturbation are reported.展开更多
This work deals with the development of a decentralized optimal control algorithm, along with a robust observer,for the relative motion control of spacecraft in leader-follower based formation. An adaptive gain higher...This work deals with the development of a decentralized optimal control algorithm, along with a robust observer,for the relative motion control of spacecraft in leader-follower based formation. An adaptive gain higher order sliding mode observer has been proposed to estimate the velocity as well as unmeasured disturbances from the noisy position measurements.A differentiator structure containing the Lipschitz constant and Lebesgue measurable control input, is utilized for obtaining the estimates. Adaptive tuning algorithms are derived based on Lyapunov stability theory, for updating the observer gains,which will give enough flexibility in the choice of initial estimates.Moreover, it may help to cope with unexpected state jerks. The trajectory tracking problem is formulated as a finite horizon optimal control problem, which is solved online. The control constraints are incorporated by using a nonquadratic performance functional. An adaptive update law has been derived for tuning the step size in the optimization algorithm, which may help to improve the convergence speed. Moreover, it is an attractive alternative to the heuristic choice of step size for diverse operating conditions. The disturbance as well as state estimates from the higher order sliding mode observer are utilized by the plant output prediction model, which will improve the overall performance of the controller. The nonlinear dynamics defined in leader fixed Euler-Hill frame has been considered for the present work and the reference trajectories are generated using Hill-Clohessy-Wiltshire equations of unperturbed motion. The simulation results based on rigorous perturbation analysis are presented to confirm the robustness of the proposed approach.展开更多
This paper develops both adaptive distributed dynamic state feedback control law and adaptive distributed measurement output feedback control law for heterogeneous discrete-time swarm systems with multiple leaders.The...This paper develops both adaptive distributed dynamic state feedback control law and adaptive distributed measurement output feedback control law for heterogeneous discrete-time swarm systems with multiple leaders.The convex hull formed by the leaders and the system matrix of leaders is estimated via an adaptive distributed containment observer.Such estimations will feed the followers so that every follower can update the system matrix of the corresponding adaptive distributed containment observer and the system state of their neighbors.The followers cooperate with each other to achieve leader-follower consensus and thus solve the containment control problem over the network.Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness and computational feasibility of the proposed control laws.展开更多
To explore the precise dynamic response of the levitation system with active controller, a maglev guide way-electromagnet-air spring-cabin coupled model is derived firstly. Based on the mathematical model, it shows th...To explore the precise dynamic response of the levitation system with active controller, a maglev guide way-electromagnet-air spring-cabin coupled model is derived firstly. Based on the mathematical model, it shows that the inherent nonlinearity, inner coupling, misalignments between the sensors and actuators, load uncertainties and external disturbances are the main issues that should be solved in engineering. Under the assumptions that the loads and external disturbance are measurable, the backstepping module controller developed in this work can tackle the above problems effectively. In reality, the load is uncertain due to the additions of luggage and passengers, which will degrade the dynamic performance. A load estimation algorithm is introduced to track the actual load asymptotically and eliminate its influence by tuning the parameters of controller online. Furthermore,considering the external disturbances generated by crosswind, pulling motor and air springs, the extended state observer is employed to estimate and suppress the external disturbance. Finally, results of numerical simulations illustrating closed-loop performance are provided.展开更多
A novel approach for the actuator fault diagnosis of time-delay systems is presented by using an adaptive observer technique. Systems without model uncertainty are initially considered, followed by a discussion of a g...A novel approach for the actuator fault diagnosis of time-delay systems is presented by using an adaptive observer technique. Systems without model uncertainty are initially considered, followed by a discussion of a general situation where the system is subjected to either model uncertainty or external disturbance. An adaptive diagnostic algorithm is developed to diagnose the fault, and a modified version is proposed for general system to improve robustness. The selection of the threshold for fault detection is also discussed. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41705081)the Shandong Natural Science Foundation Project(Grant No.ZR2019ZD12)the Laoshan Laboratory(Grant No.LSKJ202202203).
文摘This study explored the observation strategy and effectiveness of synoptic-scale adaptive observations for improving sea fog prediction in coastal regions around the Bohai Sea based on a poorly predicted fog event with cold-front synoptic pattern(CFSP).An ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation system for the Weather Research and Forecasting model was adopted with ensemble sensitivity analysis(ESA).By comparing observation impacts(estimated from a 40-member ensemble with ESA)among different meteorological observation variables and pressure levels,the temperature at 850 hPa and surface layer(850 hPa-and-surface temperature)was selected as the target observation type.Additionally,the area with large observation impacts for this observation type was predicted in the transition region of the surface low–high system.This area developed southward with the low and moved eastward with the low–high system,which could be explained by the main features of CFSP.Moreover,both experiments assimilating synthetic and real observations showed that assimilating 850 hPa-and-surface temperature observations generally yielded better fog coverage forecasts in areas with greater observation impacts than areas with smaller impacts.However,the effectiveness of adaptive observations was reduced when real observations rather than synthetic observations were assimilated,which is possibly due to factors such as observation and model errors.The main conclusions above were verified by another typical fog event with CFSP characteristics.Results of this study highlight the importance of improved initial conditions in the transition region of the low–high system for improving fog prediction and provide scientific guidance for implementing an observation network for fog forecasting over the Bohai Sea.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.40405020.
文摘An adjoint sensitivity analysis of one mesoscale low on the mei-yu Front is presented in this paper. The sensitivity gradient of simulation error dry energy with respect to initial analysis is calculated. And after verifying the ability of a tangent linear and adjoint model to describe small perturbations in the nonlinear model, the sensitivity gradient analysis is implemented in detail. The sensitivity gradient with respect to different physical fields are not uniform in intensity, simulation error is most sensitive to the vapor mixed ratio. The localization and consistency are obvious characters of horizontal distribution of the sensitivity gradient, which is useful for the practical implementation of adaptive observation. The sensitivity region tilts to the northwest with height increasing; the singular vector calculation proves that this tilting characterizes a quick-growing structure, which denotes that using the leading singular vectors to decide the adaptive observation region is proper. When connected with simulation of a mesoscale low on the mei-yu Front, the sensitivity gradient has the following physical characters： the obvious sensitive region is mesoscale, concentrated in the middle-upper troposphere, and locates around the key system; and the sensitivity gradient of different physical fields correlates dynamically.
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41105040)
文摘In order to investigate whether adaptive observations can improve tropical cyclone （TC） intensity forecasts,observing system simulation experiments （OSSEs） were conducted for 20 TC cases originating in the western North Pacific during the 2010 season according to the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation （CNOP） sensitivity,using the fifth version of the PSU/NCAR mesoscale model （MM5） and its 3DVAR assimilation system.A new intensity index was defined as the sum of the number of grid points within an allocated square centered at the corresponding forecast TC central position,that satisfy constraints associated with the Sea Level Pressure （SLP）,near-surface horizontal wind speed,and accumulated convective precipitation.The higher the index value is,the more intense the TC is.The impacts of the CNOP sensitivity on the intensity forecast were then estimated.The OSSE results showed that for 15 of the 20 cases there were improvements,with reductions of forecast errors in the range of 0.12％-8.59％,which were much less than in track forecasts.The indication,therefore,is that the CNOP sensitivity has a generally positive effect on TC intensity forecasts,but only to a certain degree.We conclude that factors such as the use of a coupled model,or better initialization of the TC vortex,are more important for an accurate TC intensity forecast.
基金jointly sponsored by the Key Project of the Chinese National Programs for Fundamental Research and Development (“973 Program”, Grant No. 2013CB430106)the Key Project of the Chinese National Science & Technology Pillar Program during the Twelfth Five-year Plan Period (Grant No. 2012BAC22B01)
文摘The Ensemble Transform（ET） method has been shown to be useful in providing guidance for adaptive observation deployment.It predicts forecast error variance reduction for each possible deployment using its corresponding transformation matrix in an ensemble subspace.In this paper,a new ET-based sensitivity（ETS） method,which calculates the gradient of forecast error variance reduction in terms of analysis error variance reduction,is proposed to specify regions for possible adaptive observations.ETS is a first order approximation of the ET;it requires just one calculation of a transformation matrix,increasing computational efficiency（60%-80%reduction in computational cost）.An explicit mathematical formulation of the ETS gradient is derived and described.Both the ET and ETS methods are applied to the Hurricane Irene（2011） case and a heavy rainfall case for comparison.The numerical results imply that the sensitive areas estimated by the ETS and ET are similar.However,ETS is much more efficient,particularly when the resolution is higher and the number of ensemble members is larger.
基金The Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract No.XDA10010405the Promgram of Guangdong Province Department of Science and Technology No.2012A032100004+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41476012,41521005 and 41406131the Knowledge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract Nos SQ201001 and SQ201205
文摘Temperature （T） and salinity （S） profiles from conductivity-temperature-depth data collected during the Northern South China Sea Open Cruise from August 16 to September 13, 2008 are assimilated using Ensemble Kalman Filter （EnKF）. An adaptive observational error strategy is used to prevent filter from diverging. In the meantime, aiming at the limited improvement in some sites caused by the T and S biases in the model, a T-S constraint scheme is adopted to improve the assimilation performance, where T and S are separately updated at these locations. Validation is performed by comparing assimilated outputs with independent in situ data （satellite remote sensing sea level anomaly （SLA）, the OSCAR velocity product and shipboard ADCP）. The results show that the new EnKF assimilation scheme can significantly reduce the root mean square error （RMSE） of oceanic T and S compared with the control run and traditional EnKF. The system can also improve the simulation of circulations and SLA.
基金jointly supported by the Guangdong Province University Student Innovation and Entrepreneurship Project (580520049)the Guangdong Ocean University Scientific Research Startup Fund (R20021)the Key Laboratory of Plateau and Basin Rainstorm and Drought Disasters in Sichuan Province Open Research Fund (SZKT201902)。
文摘This study examines the effectiveness of adaptive observation experiments using the ensemble transformation sensitivity(ETS) method to improve precipitation forecasts during heavy rainfall events in South China and the Sichuan Basin. High-resolution numerical models are employed to simulate adaptive observations. By identifying the sensitive areas of key weather system positions 42 hours before heavy rainfall events, the adaptive observations improve the prediction of jet streams, strong winds, and shear lines, which are essential for accurate heavy rainfall forecasting. This improvement is reflected in both the precipitation structure and location accuracy within the verification region. In South China, targeted observations enhance rainfall predictions by improving water vapor transport. In the Sichuan Basin, adaptive observations refine water vapor transport and adjust vortex dynamics. This research highlights the importance of accurately predicting shear lines and jet streams for forecasting heavy rainfall in these areas. Overall, this study found that adaptive observation enhances the precipitation forecast skills of the structure and location for heavy rainfall in South China and the Sichuan Basin, emphasizing their potential utility in operational numerical weather prediction.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XDA11010303)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41230420, 41306023 & 41421005)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers (Grant No. U1406401)the support of K. C. Wong Foundation
文摘Using the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) approach, sensitive areas of adaptive observation for predicting the seasonal reduction of the upstream Kuroshio transport(UKT) were investigated in the Regional Ocean Modeling System(ROMS). The vertically integrated energy scheme was utilized to identify sensitive areas based on two factors: the specific energy scheme and sensitive area size. Totally 27 sensitive areas, characterized by three energy schemes and nine sensitive area sizes, were evaluated. The results show that the total energy(TE) scheme was the most effective because it includes both the kinetic and potential components of CNOP. Generally, larger sensitive areas led to better predictions. The size of 0.5% of the model domain was chosen after balancing the effectiveness and efficiency of adaptive observation. The optimal sensitive area OSen was determined accordingly. Sensitivity experiments on OSen were then conducted, and the following results were obtained:(1) In OSen, initial errors with CNOP or CNOP-like patterns were more likely to yield worse predictions, and the CNOP pattern was the most unstable.(2) Initial errors in OSen rather than in other regions tended to cause larger prediction errors. Therefore, adaptive observation in OSen can be more beneficial for predicting the seasonal reduction of UKT.
基金Multiple time levels of Dynamic / Physical Processes with Lagrange Non-hydrostatic GlobalModel and Study on the Coordination of Correlation (40575050)
文摘There was a new concept of ‘adaptive or targeting observation’ in recent years, which is anadditional and targeting observation based on the existing and fixed observing network for the atmosphere on theimpacted region. Dropsonde is one of the important observing instruments in the adaptive or targetingobservation. In this paper, GRAPES, the next generation of numerical weather prediction system of China hasbeen used. The impacts on the typhoon Dujuan (No.200315) forecast in experiments with dropsonde have beenstudied and experiments on sensitivity have also been done. It was found that the forecasts of the elements havebeen improved obviously with the use of dropsonde, such as the path, the center location, and the intensity oftyphoon. It was also found in the sensitivity studies that the setting of deviation structure also has obviousimpacts on the forecast for typhoons. It is not true that the simulation is better when the proportion of the data ofdropsonde is larger in the course to modify the background.
文摘In this paper, an enhanced adaptive nonlinear extended state observer (EANESO) for single-input single-output pure feedback systems in the presence of external time-varying disturbances is proposed. In this paper, a nonlinear system with matched and mismatched disturbances is considered. The conventional extended state observer (ESO) can only be applied to systems that are in the form of integral chains. Moreover, this method has limitations in the face of mismatched disturbances. In the presence of time-varying disturbances, the traditional ESOs cannot estimate the disturbances accurately. To overcome this limitation, an EANESO is proposed in this paper. The main idea is to design the nonlinear ESO (NESO) to estimate the states of the system and multiple disturbances simultaneously. The observer gains are considered time-varying and adjusted with adaptation laws to improve the estimation accuracy and overcome the peaking phenomenon. Next, the proposed controller is designed based on output feedback to eliminate the effects of multiple disturbances and stabilize the closed-loop system. Subsequently, the stability analysis of the closed-loop system and convergence of the observer error are discussed. Finally, the proposed method is applied to the inverted pendulum system. The simulated results show good performance of the proposed method as compared with a recently published scheme in the related literature.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(60811120024)Aeronautical Scienceand Technology Innovation Foundation of China(08C52001)~~
文摘Based on the linear parameter-varying （LPV） adaptive observer, the robust fault diagnosis for a class of LPV systems with external disturbances is studied. Since the flight control system （FCS） is nonlinear and time-varying, the LPV technique is used for FCS. And then the adaptive fault estimation algorithm based on the LPV adaptive observer is proposed to estimate the fault. To minimize the effect of disturbances on the fault estimation, the H~ robust performance index is introduced to design the LPV adaptive fault diagnosis observer and the fault estimation algorithm. The result shows that the method has good estimation performance and is robust to external disturbances. The design method is presented in terms of linear matrix inequalities （LMIs）. Finally, a helicopter LPV FCS model with the actuator fault is used to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
基金jointly sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40830955 and 40821092)the China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. GYHY200906009)
文摘The sensitive regions of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) and the first singular vector (FSV) for a northwest Pacific typhoon case are reported in this paper. A large number of probes have been designed in the above regions and the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) techniques are utilized to examine which approach can locate more appropriate regions for typhoon adaptive observations. The results show that, in general, the majority of the probes in the sensitive regions of CNOPs can reduce more forecast error variance than the probes in the sensitive regions of FSV. This implies that adaptive observations in the sensitive regions of CNOPs are more effective than in the sensitive regions of FSV. Furthermore, the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by the best probe identified by CNOPs is twice the reduction of the forecast error variance obtained by FSV. This implies that dropping sondes, which is the best probe identified by CNOPs, can improve the forecast more than the best probe identified by FSV. These results indicate that the sensitive regions identified by CNOPs are more appropriate for adaptive observations than those identified by FSV.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.52202494,52202495)Chongqing Special Project for Technological Innovation and Application Development(Grant No.CSTB2022TIAD-DEX0014).
文摘The current research of master cylinder pressure estimation mainly relies on hydraulic characteristic or vehicle dynamics.But they are not independently applicable to any environment and have their own scope of application.In addition,about the master cylinder pressure control,there are few studies that can simultaneously balance pressure building accuracy,speed,and prevent pressure overshoot and jitter.In this paper,an adaptative fusion method based on electro-hydraulic characteristic and vehicle mode is proposed to estimate the master cylinder pressure.The fusion strategy is mainly based on the prediction performance of two algorithms under different vehicle speeds,pressures,and ABS states.Apart from this,this article also includes real-time prediction of the friction model based on RLS to improve the accuracy of the electro-hydraulic mode.In order to simultaneously balance pressure control accuracy,response speed,and prevent overshoot and jitter,this article proposes an adaptative LQR controller for MC pressure control which uses fuzzy-logic controller to adjust the weights of LQR controller based on target pressure and difference compared with actual pressure.Through mode-in-loop and hardware-in-loop tests in ramp,step and sinusoidal response,the whole estimation and control system is verified based on real hydraulic system and the performance is satisfactory under these scenes.This research proposes an adaptative pressure estimation and control architecture for integrated electro-hydraulic brake system which could eliminate pressure sensors in typical scenarios and ensure the comprehensive performance of pressure control.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51609120)the Qingdao Applied Basic Research Project(Grant No.14-2-4-116-jch)
文摘Modified adaptive observer based backstepping control system for dynamic positioning of ship is proposed. As an improvement, the adaptive observer takes the first-order wave frequency model and the bias term which represent the slowly varying environmental disturbances and the unmodeled dynamics. Thus, the wave-frequency motions are filtered out, and only the reconstructed low-frequency motions are sent as inputs of the controller. Furthermore, as the ship dynamics parameters are unknown, the adaptive estimation law is designed for both the unknown ship dynamics and the unmeasured state variables. Based on the estimated states and parameters, backstepping controller considering the integral action is designed. Global exponential stability （GES） for the total system is proved using Lyapunov direct method. Simulation results show a good performance of the observer and control system.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(90510010).
文摘A novel H∞ tracking-based decentralized indirect adaptive output feedback fuzzy controller for a class of uncertain large-scale nonlinear systems is developed. By virtue of the proper filtering of the observation error dynamics, the observer-based decentralized indirect adaptive fuzzy control scheme is presented for a class of large-scale nonlinear systems using the combination of H∞ tracking technique, a fuzzy adaptive observer and fuzzy inference systems. The output feedback and adaptation mechanisms are both robust and implementable indeed owing to their freedom from the unavailable observation error vector. All the signals of the closed-loop largescale system are guaranteed to stay uniformly bounded and the output errors take on H∞ tracking performance. Simulation results substantiate the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.
文摘In this paper, chaos synchronization in the presence of parameter uncertainty, observer gain perturbation and exogenous input disturbance is considered. A nonlinear non-fragile proportional-integral （PI） adaptive observer is designed for the synchronization of chaotic systems; its stability conditions based on the Lyapunov technique are derived. The observer proportional and integral gains, by converting the conditions into linear matrix inequality （LMI）, are optimally selected from solutions that satisfy the observer stability conditions such that the effect of disturbance on the synchronization error becomes minimized. To show the effectiveness of the proposed method, simulation results for the synchronization of a Lorenz chaotic system with unknown parameters in the presence of an exogenous input disturbance and abrupt gain perturbation are reported.
文摘This work deals with the development of a decentralized optimal control algorithm, along with a robust observer,for the relative motion control of spacecraft in leader-follower based formation. An adaptive gain higher order sliding mode observer has been proposed to estimate the velocity as well as unmeasured disturbances from the noisy position measurements.A differentiator structure containing the Lipschitz constant and Lebesgue measurable control input, is utilized for obtaining the estimates. Adaptive tuning algorithms are derived based on Lyapunov stability theory, for updating the observer gains,which will give enough flexibility in the choice of initial estimates.Moreover, it may help to cope with unexpected state jerks. The trajectory tracking problem is formulated as a finite horizon optimal control problem, which is solved online. The control constraints are incorporated by using a nonquadratic performance functional. An adaptive update law has been derived for tuning the step size in the optimization algorithm, which may help to improve the convergence speed. Moreover, it is an attractive alternative to the heuristic choice of step size for diverse operating conditions. The disturbance as well as state estimates from the higher order sliding mode observer are utilized by the plant output prediction model, which will improve the overall performance of the controller. The nonlinear dynamics defined in leader fixed Euler-Hill frame has been considered for the present work and the reference trajectories are generated using Hill-Clohessy-Wiltshire equations of unperturbed motion. The simulation results based on rigorous perturbation analysis are presented to confirm the robustness of the proposed approach.
基金co-supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFB1600500)。
文摘This paper develops both adaptive distributed dynamic state feedback control law and adaptive distributed measurement output feedback control law for heterogeneous discrete-time swarm systems with multiple leaders.The convex hull formed by the leaders and the system matrix of leaders is estimated via an adaptive distributed containment observer.Such estimations will feed the followers so that every follower can update the system matrix of the corresponding adaptive distributed containment observer and the system state of their neighbors.The followers cooperate with each other to achieve leader-follower consensus and thus solve the containment control problem over the network.Numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness and computational feasibility of the proposed control laws.
基金Projects(60404003,11202230)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘To explore the precise dynamic response of the levitation system with active controller, a maglev guide way-electromagnet-air spring-cabin coupled model is derived firstly. Based on the mathematical model, it shows that the inherent nonlinearity, inner coupling, misalignments between the sensors and actuators, load uncertainties and external disturbances are the main issues that should be solved in engineering. Under the assumptions that the loads and external disturbance are measurable, the backstepping module controller developed in this work can tackle the above problems effectively. In reality, the load is uncertain due to the additions of luggage and passengers, which will degrade the dynamic performance. A load estimation algorithm is introduced to track the actual load asymptotically and eliminate its influence by tuning the parameters of controller online. Furthermore,considering the external disturbances generated by crosswind, pulling motor and air springs, the extended state observer is employed to estimate and suppress the external disturbance. Finally, results of numerical simulations illustrating closed-loop performance are provided.
基金This project was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (60274058) .
文摘A novel approach for the actuator fault diagnosis of time-delay systems is presented by using an adaptive observer technique. Systems without model uncertainty are initially considered, followed by a discussion of a general situation where the system is subjected to either model uncertainty or external disturbance. An adaptive diagnostic algorithm is developed to diagnose the fault, and a modified version is proposed for general system to improve robustness. The selection of the threshold for fault detection is also discussed. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method.
