Long-term flood risk adaptation and decision making are complex because the future is full of deep uncertainties.Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty.This study developed an integrate...Long-term flood risk adaptation and decision making are complex because the future is full of deep uncertainties.Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty.This study developed an integrated modeling framework that extends previous studies to the spatial domain to assess the future flood risks and the cost and benefit of three adaptation measures for four types of buildings in Shanghai.Real options analysis(ROA)and dynamic adaptive policy pathways(DAPP)were integrated to develop a dynamic adaptation pathway and identify robust adaptation options.The results show that:(1)Sea level rise and land subsidence will significantly exacerbate the flood risks in Shanghai;(2)Among the three flood control measures,wet-floodproofing has the best economic performance in terms of both the net present value and the benefit/cost ratio,followed by dry-floodproofing,and elevation;(3)Dryfloodproofing can be used at the beginning of the future period(2030–2100),and it can be replaced by wet-floodproofing in 2035–2042;the elevation measure also shows good performance at the beginning of implementation,but its performance will decline after 2041–2045;(4)The combined strategy of dry-and wet-floodproofing in 2044–2046and a hybrid strategy combining the three measures should be the optimal solution for reducing the flood risks in 2047–2051.The methodology developed in this study can provide insights for coastal cities to formulate cost-effective and feasible adaptation strategies in a deeply uncertain future.展开更多
Indigenous agroforestry systems have been practiced for centuries in the Himalaya Mountains and adjoining regions.With the increase of climate change associated risks,enhanced understanding of the impact of climate ch...Indigenous agroforestry systems have been practiced for centuries in the Himalaya Mountains and adjoining regions.With the increase of climate change associated risks,enhanced understanding of the impact of climate change and related phenomena on the potential distribution of agroforestry is increasingly useful and necessary,for both maintaining and improving yield and ecosystem function.In particular,展开更多
基金funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No. 2018YFC1508803)the National Social Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 18ZDA105)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41971199, 42171080, 42001182)the Shanghai Science and Technology Support Program (Grant No. 19DZ1201505)
文摘Long-term flood risk adaptation and decision making are complex because the future is full of deep uncertainties.Flexibility and robustness can be used to deal with future uncertainty.This study developed an integrated modeling framework that extends previous studies to the spatial domain to assess the future flood risks and the cost and benefit of three adaptation measures for four types of buildings in Shanghai.Real options analysis(ROA)and dynamic adaptive policy pathways(DAPP)were integrated to develop a dynamic adaptation pathway and identify robust adaptation options.The results show that:(1)Sea level rise and land subsidence will significantly exacerbate the flood risks in Shanghai;(2)Among the three flood control measures,wet-floodproofing has the best economic performance in terms of both the net present value and the benefit/cost ratio,followed by dry-floodproofing,and elevation;(3)Dryfloodproofing can be used at the beginning of the future period(2030–2100),and it can be replaced by wet-floodproofing in 2035–2042;the elevation measure also shows good performance at the beginning of implementation,but its performance will decline after 2041–2045;(4)The combined strategy of dry-and wet-floodproofing in 2044–2046and a hybrid strategy combining the three measures should be the optimal solution for reducing the flood risks in 2047–2051.The methodology developed in this study can provide insights for coastal cities to formulate cost-effective and feasible adaptation strategies in a deeply uncertain future.
文摘Indigenous agroforestry systems have been practiced for centuries in the Himalaya Mountains and adjoining regions.With the increase of climate change associated risks,enhanced understanding of the impact of climate change and related phenomena on the potential distribution of agroforestry is increasingly useful and necessary,for both maintaining and improving yield and ecosystem function.In particular,
