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基于Aalen可加风险模型的鼻咽癌患者生存率的影响因素分析
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作者 霍康明 刘银萍 +1 位作者 王稳菁 张中文 《滨州医学院学报》 2026年第1期88-92,共5页
目的研究鼻咽癌患者生存率的影响因素,为公共卫生防控策略优化和临床精准治疗提供科学依据。方法从SEER数据库调取2010—2015年原发肿瘤部位为鼻咽部的全部病例资料,运用卡方检验分析鼻咽癌患者生存结局与各种常见变量之间的相关性,利用... 目的研究鼻咽癌患者生存率的影响因素,为公共卫生防控策略优化和临床精准治疗提供科学依据。方法从SEER数据库调取2010—2015年原发肿瘤部位为鼻咽部的全部病例资料,运用卡方检验分析鼻咽癌患者生存结局与各种常见变量之间的相关性,利用Kaplan-Meier法做生存分析,采用log-rank检验进行生存率的比较,借助Aalen可加风险模型研究鼻咽癌患者生存时间的影响因素。结果经过单因素分析,不同年龄、性别、种族、位置、临床分期、TNM分期、化疗、婚姻状况、收入的鼻咽癌患者生存率的差别均具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素分析结果显示,不同年龄、种族、T分期、M分期以及是否化疗的鼻咽癌患者生存率的差别具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论鼻咽癌患者死亡风险随年龄增长呈现阶梯式升高,且与肿瘤局部进展程度呈正相关。肿瘤存在远处转移者预后急剧恶化,不进行化疗的患者死亡风险更高,美国非白人族群较白人患者具有生存优势。应重视鼻咽癌患者的二级和三级预防,实施系统化治疗,并制定分层管理策略。 展开更多
关键词 鼻咽癌 预后 影响因素 aalen可加风险模型
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基于随机截尾数据非参化Nelson-Aalen可靠性评估模型
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作者 刘新玲 唐家银 +1 位作者 王劲博 吴怡 《航空动力学报》 北大核心 2025年第1期359-369,共11页
针对可靠性工程试验中的随机截尾数据,从累积失效率函数的分析角度出发,基于NelsonAalen(NA)估计理论,实现了对产品的非参数化可靠性评估。基于所获离散样本,给出累积失效率在连续和离散形式下的非参数极大似然估计,并推导出随机截尾样... 针对可靠性工程试验中的随机截尾数据,从累积失效率函数的分析角度出发,基于NelsonAalen(NA)估计理论,实现了对产品的非参数化可靠性评估。基于所获离散样本,给出累积失效率在连续和离散形式下的非参数极大似然估计,并推导出随机截尾样本下累积失效率函数的NA估计形式;由NA估计所得的可靠度衍生完全非参数化置信评估模型;构建广义加权滑动平均模型,实现了对样本最大观测时间之后的可靠度估计。算例分析表明:在对寿命分布信息完全未知时,NA模型实现了基于随机截尾受测型寿命数据对产品可靠性的有效置信评估,估计相对偏差率控制在0.9787%以下,且估计精度随着样本量的增加和截尾比例的减小而显著提高。结果验证了NA可靠性计算的有效性和评估精准性。 展开更多
关键词 Nelson-aalen估计 随机截尾数据 非参数极大似然估计 置信评估 可靠性分析
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基于Aalen可加模型的中国上市公司ST预测 被引量:11
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作者 张茂军 刘庆华 朱宁 《系统管理学报》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2019年第1期98-107,共10页
针对上市公司特别处理(简称ST)政策,基于公司连续2年净利润为负的特征,利用生存分析方法,建立Aalen可加模型预测上市公司财务困境。采用中国制造业公司自上市日起到2015年的财务数据进行实证分析,讨论上市公司违约概率与财务预警指标间... 针对上市公司特别处理(简称ST)政策,基于公司连续2年净利润为负的特征,利用生存分析方法,建立Aalen可加模型预测上市公司财务困境。采用中国制造业公司自上市日起到2015年的财务数据进行实证分析,讨论上市公司违约概率与财务预警指标间的关系。研究结果表明,总资产规模、营业利润率、运营资金/资产总金额以及留存收益/资产总金额4个指标均影响上市公司陷入财务困境的强度;除了总资产规模对其影响是常数外,其他3个指标对其影响均具有时变性;且总资产规模越大,该公司陷入财务困境的可能性越小。 展开更多
关键词 财务困境 违约概率 aalen可加模型 时变性
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HIV/AIDS预后的Aalen模型分析
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作者 张卫萍 谭洁冰 +5 位作者 施学忠 贾晓灿 夏振华 冯宇 李一凡 杨永利 《郑州大学学报(医学版)》 CAS 北大核心 2019年第2期195-199,共5页
目的:分析HIV/AIDS确诊时病程和抗病毒治疗(ART)对HIV/AID预后影响的时间变化趋势,探明ART的关键期。方法:收集河南省某艾滋病疫情高发地区1995年至2016年期间14 289名HIV/AIDS患者的基线和随访信息,应用Aalen模型分析HIV/AIDS的预后影... 目的:分析HIV/AIDS确诊时病程和抗病毒治疗(ART)对HIV/AID预后影响的时间变化趋势,探明ART的关键期。方法:收集河南省某艾滋病疫情高发地区1995年至2016年期间14 289名HIV/AIDS患者的基线和随访信息,应用Aalen模型分析HIV/AIDS的预后影响因素并绘制累积回归系数图,通过分段回归模型寻找累积回归系数随时间变化的拐点。结果:调整性别及确诊时年龄等因素影响后,是否接受ART、确诊时病程、感染途径以及基线CD4+T淋巴细胞计数对HIV/AIDS的预后有影响(P <0. 001)。累积回归系数图显示,接受ART的患者死亡风险低于未接受ART者,累积回归系数在8 a之前下降趋势明显,其后平缓,拐点前后回归系数差异有统计学意义(β=0. 112,95%CI为0. 109~0. 115);确诊时已经处于AIDS阶段的患者死亡风险高于HIV感染者,累积回归系数在5 a之前上升趋势明显,其后平缓,拐点前后回归系数差异有统计学意义(β=-0. 044,95%CI为-0. 045~-0. 044)。结论:早诊断和坚持接受ART可以改善HIV/AIDS预后,确诊HIV阳性后的前8 a是ART的关键时期。 展开更多
关键词 HIV/AIDS 预后 aalen模型 累积回归系数 分段回归模型
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The Cox-Aalen Models as Framework for Construction of Bivariate Probability Distributions, Universal Representation 被引量:1
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作者 Jerzy K. Filus 《Journal of Statistical Science and Application》 2017年第2期56-63,共8页
Starting with the Aalen (1989) version of Cox (1972) 'regression model' we show the method for construction of "any" joint survival function given marginal survival functions. Basically, however, we restrict o... Starting with the Aalen (1989) version of Cox (1972) 'regression model' we show the method for construction of "any" joint survival function given marginal survival functions. Basically, however, we restrict ourselves to model positive stochastic dependences only with the general assumption that the underlying two marginal random variables are centered on the set of nonnegative real values. With only these assumptions we obtain nice general characterization of bivariate probability distributions that may play similar role as the copula methodology. Examples of reliability and biomedical applications are given. 展开更多
关键词 Cox model aalen additive hazards model construction of bivariate probability distributions givenmarginal distributions "joiner" as dependence function "connecting" the marginals general characterization ofbivariate distributions similarity to the copula methodology reliability and biomedical applications
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Asymptotic Normality of the Nelson-Aalen and the Kaplan-Meier Estimators in Competing Risks
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作者 Didier Alain Njamen Njomen 《Applied Mathematics》 2019年第7期545-560,共16页
This paper studies the asymptotic normality of the Nelson-Aalen and the Kaplan-Meier estimators in a competing risks context in presence of independent right-censorship. To prove our results, we use Robelledo’s theor... This paper studies the asymptotic normality of the Nelson-Aalen and the Kaplan-Meier estimators in a competing risks context in presence of independent right-censorship. To prove our results, we use Robelledo’s theorem which makes it possible to apply the central limit theorem to certain types of particular martingales. From the results obtained, confidence bounds for the hazard and the survival functions are provided. 展开更多
关键词 Censored Data Right-Censoring Counting Process Competing Risks Nelson-aalen and Kaplan-Meier ESTIMATORS Asymptotic Properties of ESTIMATORS CONFIDENCE BANDS
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基于Nelson-Aalen估计和经济失效率模型的民机部件维修间隔研究
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作者 王龙飞 《装备制造技术》 2020年第10期198-199,207,共3页
采用Nelson-Aalen估计求得部件在不同时间点的失效率,利用经济失效率模型计算经济失效率临界值。最后,提出了一种适用于航空公司自编维修任务的维修间隔正确方法。依据分析计算结果,结合该机型的间隔框架,获得民机部件的临界预防维修间隔。
关键词 Nelson-aalen估计 失效率 维修任务 维修间隔
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An Additive-Multiplicative Cox-Aalen Subdistribution Hazard Model for Competing Risks Data
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作者 LI Wanxing LONG Yonghong 《Journal of Systems Science & Complexity》 SCIE EI CSCD 2019年第6期1727-1746,共20页
This paper proposes a flexible additive-multiplicative Cox-Aalen hazard model which allows time-varying covariate effects for the subdistribution in a competing risks study.Weigh ted estimating equation approaches und... This paper proposes a flexible additive-multiplicative Cox-Aalen hazard model which allows time-varying covariate effects for the subdistribution in a competing risks study.Weigh ted estimating equation approaches under an covariates-dependent adjusted weight by fitting the Cox proportional hazard model for the censoring distribution are established for inference on the model parametric and nonparametric components.In addition,large number properties are presented and the finite sample behavior of the proposed estimators is evaluated through simulation studies,estimators from the proposed method perform satisfactorily on reduction of the bias.The authors apply our model to a competing risks data set from a tamoxifen trail for breast cancer study. 展开更多
关键词 aalen's additive model competing risks cumulative incidence function estimating equation inverse probability of censoring weight proportional hazard function time-varying effects
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Exploring the Impact of Factors Affecting the Lifespan of HIVs/AIDS Patient’s Survival: An Investigation Using Advanced Statistical Techniques
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作者 Christiana I. Ezeilo Edith U. Umeh +1 位作者 Daniel C. Osuagwu Chrisogonus K. Onyekwere 《Open Journal of Endocrine and Metabolic Diseases》 2023年第4期594-618,共25页
This study investigates the impact of various factors on the lifespan and diagnostic time of HIV/AIDS patients using advanced statistical techniques. The Power Chris-Jerry (PCJ) distribution is applied to model CD4 co... This study investigates the impact of various factors on the lifespan and diagnostic time of HIV/AIDS patients using advanced statistical techniques. The Power Chris-Jerry (PCJ) distribution is applied to model CD4 counts of patients, and the goodness-of-fit test confirms a strong fit with a p-value of 0.6196. The PCJ distribution is found to be the best fit based on information criteria (AIC and BIC) with the smallest negative log-likelihood, AIC, and BIC values. The study uses datasets from St. Luke hospital Uyo, Nigeria, containing HIV/AIDS diagnosis date, age, CD4 count, gender, and opportunistic infection dates. Multiple linear regression is employed to analyze the relationship between these variables and HIV/AIDS diagnostic time. The results indicate that age, CD4 count, and opportunistic infection significantly impact the diagnostic time, while gender shows a nonsignificant relationship. The F-test confirms the model's overall significance, indicating the factors are good predictors of HIV/AIDS diagnostic time. The R-squared value of approximately 72% suggests that administering antiretroviral therapy (ART) can improve diagnostic time by suppressing the virus and protecting the immune system. Cox proportional hazard modeling is used to examine the effects of predictor variables on patient survival time. Age and CD4 count are not significant factors in the hazard of HIV/AIDS diagnostic time, while opportunistic infection is a significant predictor with a decreasing effect on the hazard rate. Gender shows a strong but nonsignificant relationship with decreased risk of death. To address the violation of the assumption of proportional hazard, the study employs an assumption-free alternative, Aalen’s model. In the Aalen model, all predictor variables except age and gender are statistically significant in relation to HIV/AIDS diagnostic time. The findings provide valuable insights into the factors influencing diagnostic time and survival of HIV/AIDS patients, which can inform interventions aimed at reducing transmission and improving early diagnosis and treatment. The Power Chris-Jerry distribution proves to be a suitable fit for modeling CD4 counts, while multiple linear regression and survival analysis techniques provide insights into the relationships between predictor variables and diagnostic time. These results contribute to the understanding of HIV/AIDS patient outcomes and can guide public health interventions to enhance early detection, treatment, and care. 展开更多
关键词 Chris-Jerry Distribution Power Chris-Jerry Distribution Cox Proportional Hazard aalen’s Model Factors Affecting HIV/AIDS Patients CD4 Counts of HIV/AIDS Patients
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Exploring the Impact of Factors Affecting the Lifespan of HIVs/AIDS Patient’s Survival: An Investigation Using Advanced Statistical Techniques
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作者 Christiana I. Ezeilo Edith U. Umeh +1 位作者 Daniel C. Osuagwu Chrisogonus K. Onyekwere 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2023年第4期594-618,共25页
This study investigates the impact of various factors on the lifespan and diagnostic time of HIV/AIDS patients using advanced statistical techniques. The Power Chris-Jerry (PCJ) distribution is applied to model CD4 co... This study investigates the impact of various factors on the lifespan and diagnostic time of HIV/AIDS patients using advanced statistical techniques. The Power Chris-Jerry (PCJ) distribution is applied to model CD4 counts of patients, and the goodness-of-fit test confirms a strong fit with a p-value of 0.6196. The PCJ distribution is found to be the best fit based on information criteria (AIC and BIC) with the smallest negative log-likelihood, AIC, and BIC values. The study uses datasets from St. Luke hospital Uyo, Nigeria, containing HIV/AIDS diagnosis date, age, CD4 count, gender, and opportunistic infection dates. Multiple linear regression is employed to analyze the relationship between these variables and HIV/AIDS diagnostic time. The results indicate that age, CD4 count, and opportunistic infection significantly impact the diagnostic time, while gender shows a nonsignificant relationship. The F-test confirms the model's overall significance, indicating the factors are good predictors of HIV/AIDS diagnostic time. The R-squared value of approximately 72% suggests that administering antiretroviral therapy (ART) can improve diagnostic time by suppressing the virus and protecting the immune system. Cox proportional hazard modeling is used to examine the effects of predictor variables on patient survival time. Age and CD4 count are not significant factors in the hazard of HIV/AIDS diagnostic time, while opportunistic infection is a significant predictor with a decreasing effect on the hazard rate. Gender shows a strong but nonsignificant relationship with decreased risk of death. To address the violation of the assumption of proportional hazard, the study employs an assumption-free alternative, Aalen’s model. In the Aalen model, all predictor variables except age and gender are statistically significant in relation to HIV/AIDS diagnostic time. The findings provide valuable insights into the factors influencing diagnostic time and survival of HIV/AIDS patients, which can inform interventions aimed at reducing transmission and improving early diagnosis and treatment. The Power Chris-Jerry distribution proves to be a suitable fit for modeling CD4 counts, while multiple linear regression and survival analysis techniques provide insights into the relationships between predictor variables and diagnostic time. These results contribute to the understanding of HIV/AIDS patient outcomes and can guide public health interventions to enhance early detection, treatment, and care. 展开更多
关键词 Chris-Jerry Distribution Power Chris-Jerry Distribution Cox Proportional Hazard aalen’s Model Factors Affecting HIV/AIDS Patients CD4 Counts of HIV/AIDS Patients
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多类型复发事件下变系数加性乘积比率回归模型
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作者 戴家佳 刘焕彬 杨振海 《应用数学学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2009年第5期938-950,共13页
本文基于多类型复发事件数据,讨论了一个新的加性乘积比率回归模型,该模型包括两部分,其中第一部分为可加Aalen模型,其中协变量影响为加性的且与时间有关.第二部分为Cox回归模型,其中协变量有乘性影响.利用估计方程的方法,给出了该模型... 本文基于多类型复发事件数据,讨论了一个新的加性乘积比率回归模型,该模型包括两部分,其中第一部分为可加Aalen模型,其中协变量影响为加性的且与时间有关.第二部分为Cox回归模型,其中协变量有乘性影响.利用估计方程的方法,给出了该模型中未知参数和非参数函数的一种估计方法,并利用现代经验过程理论证明了所得估计的相合性和渐近正态性. 展开更多
关键词 多类型复发事件 加性乘积比率模型 加性aalen模型 估计方程
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A class of transformation rate models for recurrent event data 被引量:2
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作者 ZHANG Hu YANG QingLong QU LianQiang 《Science China Mathematics》 SCIE CSCD 2016年第11期2227-2244,共18页
Recurrent event data frequently occur in longitudinal studies, and it is often of interest to estimate the effects of covariates on the recurrent event rate. This paper considers a class of semiparametric transformati... Recurrent event data frequently occur in longitudinal studies, and it is often of interest to estimate the effects of covariates on the recurrent event rate. This paper considers a class of semiparametric transformation rate models for recurrent event data, which uses an additive AMen model as its covariate dependent baseline. The new models are flexible in that they allow for both additive and multiplicative covariate effects, and some covariate effects are allowed to be nonparametric and time-varying. An estimating procedure is proposed for parameter estimation, and the resulting estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Simulation studies and a real data analysis demonstrate that the proposed method performs well and is appropriate for practical use. 展开更多
关键词 aalen model estimating equations recurrent event data time-varying coefficients transformation rate models
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