基于系统辨识理论,提出一种新的预测冰蓄冷中央空调平均负荷的外源自回归滑动平均(ARMAX)模型辨识方法.首先根据空调负荷历史数据构建次日平均负荷的ARMAX模型;然后基于不同的室外最高温度建立自适应ARMAX温度区间模型,该模型由几组参...基于系统辨识理论,提出一种新的预测冰蓄冷中央空调平均负荷的外源自回归滑动平均(ARMAX)模型辨识方法.首先根据空调负荷历史数据构建次日平均负荷的ARMAX模型;然后基于不同的室外最高温度建立自适应ARMAX温度区间模型,该模型由几组参数时变的子模型组成,子模型参数由在线回归算法辨识.测试数据表明,所提出的ARMAX温度区间模型与传统的ARMAX模型相比具有较高的预测精度,而且室外最高温度差异越大,效果越明显,可用于冰蓄冷中央空调的优化控制.
Abstract：
A novel ARMAX model identification method for average load forecasting of ice-storage central air conditioning is introduced based on system identification theory. Firstly an ARMAX model for the next day average load is obtained according to the historical data,then an adaptive ARMAX model is proposed based on different outdoor maximum temperature, the temperature interval based ARMAX model is composed of several time-varyiag sub-models whose parameters are identified using an on-line regression algorithm. As a result, the proposed model has good quality in terms of prediction precision in comparison with traditional ARMAX model, besides, the more outdoor maximum temperature difference, the better prediction precision, it can be applied to the optimal control of ice-storage central air conditioning.展开更多
为探究车-桥耦合系统可靠性的效率和精度,建立列车-桥梁的耦合振动模型,并采用自回归方法模拟轨道不平顺.回顾ARMAX(auto-regressive moving average exogenous)模型的基本原理,提出了基于ARMAX代理模型的车-桥耦合系统可靠性分析框架;...为探究车-桥耦合系统可靠性的效率和精度,建立列车-桥梁的耦合振动模型,并采用自回归方法模拟轨道不平顺.回顾ARMAX(auto-regressive moving average exogenous)模型的基本原理,提出了基于ARMAX代理模型的车-桥耦合系统可靠性分析框架;利用代理模型获得列车响应预测值,并与直接蒙特卡罗模拟(monte carlo simulation,MCS)法结果进行对比,探讨了代理模型在分析行车安全时的计算精度和可靠性分析效率.结果表明:代理模型预测列车竖向和横向加速度响应的效率显著高于MCS法,约为3个数量级;预测竖向、横向车体加速度的精度分别为98.66%、86.55%,求解精度较好,可显著提高车-桥耦合系统可靠性分析的效率.展开更多
文摘基于系统辨识理论,提出一种新的预测冰蓄冷中央空调平均负荷的外源自回归滑动平均(ARMAX)模型辨识方法.首先根据空调负荷历史数据构建次日平均负荷的ARMAX模型;然后基于不同的室外最高温度建立自适应ARMAX温度区间模型,该模型由几组参数时变的子模型组成,子模型参数由在线回归算法辨识.测试数据表明,所提出的ARMAX温度区间模型与传统的ARMAX模型相比具有较高的预测精度,而且室外最高温度差异越大,效果越明显,可用于冰蓄冷中央空调的优化控制.
Abstract：
A novel ARMAX model identification method for average load forecasting of ice-storage central air conditioning is introduced based on system identification theory. Firstly an ARMAX model for the next day average load is obtained according to the historical data,then an adaptive ARMAX model is proposed based on different outdoor maximum temperature, the temperature interval based ARMAX model is composed of several time-varyiag sub-models whose parameters are identified using an on-line regression algorithm. As a result, the proposed model has good quality in terms of prediction precision in comparison with traditional ARMAX model, besides, the more outdoor maximum temperature difference, the better prediction precision, it can be applied to the optimal control of ice-storage central air conditioning.
文摘为探究车-桥耦合系统可靠性的效率和精度,建立列车-桥梁的耦合振动模型,并采用自回归方法模拟轨道不平顺.回顾ARMAX(auto-regressive moving average exogenous)模型的基本原理,提出了基于ARMAX代理模型的车-桥耦合系统可靠性分析框架;利用代理模型获得列车响应预测值,并与直接蒙特卡罗模拟(monte carlo simulation,MCS)法结果进行对比,探讨了代理模型在分析行车安全时的计算精度和可靠性分析效率.结果表明:代理模型预测列车竖向和横向加速度响应的效率显著高于MCS法,约为3个数量级;预测竖向、横向车体加速度的精度分别为98.66%、86.55%,求解精度较好,可显著提高车-桥耦合系统可靠性分析的效率.
