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Stress disturbance induced by twin-tunneling in sandy ground considering soil arching effect
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作者 Zhiyong Liu Xuanda Wu +2 位作者 Junhua Xiao Jinghui Yang Ying Liu 《Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering》 2025年第10期6530-6547,共18页
Due to space constraints in urban areas,metro tunnels are typically constructed in pairs,with a small clearance.The interaction between twin tunnels leads to a significantly more complex ground deformation and stress ... Due to space constraints in urban areas,metro tunnels are typically constructed in pairs,with a small clearance.The interaction between twin tunnels leads to a significantly more complex ground deformation and stress distribution than that observed in a single tunnel scenario,particularly if the tunnels are excavated in sequence.A series of physical model tests were conducted to investigate soil deformation and stress disturbances caused by the excavation of twin tunnels.The test results indicate that the interaction between the twin tunnels was observed.Due to the soil arching effect,the excavation of Tunnel 2 increases the soil stress acting on Tunnel 1.An analytical method was proposed to determine soil stress considering the soil arching effect and the interaction between twin tunnels.The method categorized the relative locations between twin tunnels into non-influenced,partially influenced,and fully influenced scenarios.For non-influenced and fully influenced scenarios,the soil stresses above twin tunnels were calculated based on a symmetric major principal stress trace.For the partially influenced scenario,however,the soil arch above Tunnel 2 was asymmetric due to the interaction,and the stress distribution was obtained based on a new asymmetric major principal stress trace.The soil stress on Tunnel 1 was influenced by the load transferred from Tunnel 2 and calculated based on the force equilibrium.A comparison of the analytical and test results indicates that the proposed method effectively predicts the soil stress in the cover layer above twin tunnels excavated sequentially,considering the interaction and soil arching effects. 展开更多
关键词 Physical model tests Analytical method Soil stress Twin tunnels in sandy ground Interaction and soil arching effect
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Arch structure effect of the coal gangue flow of the fully mechanized caving in special thick coal seam and its impact on the loss of top coal 被引量:9
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作者 Zhang Ningbo Liu Changyou 《International Journal of Mining Science and Technology》 SCIE EI CSCD 2016年第4期593-599,共7页
Based on the characteristics of the top coal thickness of the fully mechanized caving in special thick coal seam,the long distance of coal gangue caving,as well as the different sizes of the coal gangue broken fragmen... Based on the characteristics of the top coal thickness of the fully mechanized caving in special thick coal seam,the long distance of coal gangue caving,as well as the different sizes of the coal gangue broken fragment dimension and spatial variation of drop flow,this paper uses laboratory dispersion simulation experiment and theoretical analysis to study the arch structure effect and its influence rule on the top coal loss in the process of coal gangue flow.Research shows that in the process of coal gangue flow,arch structure can be formed in three types:the lower arch structure,middle arch structure,and upper arch structure.Moreover,the arch structure has the characteristics of dynamic random arch,the formation probability of dynamic random arch with different layers is not the same,dynamic random arch caused the reduction of the top coal fluency;analyzing the dynamic random arch formation mechanism,influencing factors,and the conditions of instability;the formation probability of the lower arch structure is the highest,the whole coal arch and the coal gangue arch structure has the greatest impact on top coal loss.Therefore,to prevent or reduce the formation of lower whole coal arch structure,the lower coal gangue arch structure and the middle whole coal arch structure is the key to reduce the top coal loss.The research conclusion provides theoretical basis for the further improvement of the top coal recovery rate of the fully mechanized caving in extra thick coal seam. 展开更多
关键词 Extra thick coal seam Coalgangue flow Top coalloss Dynamic random arch effect
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Improved method for determining active earth pressure considering arching effect and actual slip surface 被引量:3
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作者 HE Zhong-ming LIU Zheng-fu +1 位作者 LIU Xiao-hong BIAN Han-bing 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2020年第7期2032-2042,共11页
To determine the distribution of active earth pressure on retaining walls, a series of model tests with the horizontally translating rigid walls are designed. Particle image velocimetry is used to study the movement a... To determine the distribution of active earth pressure on retaining walls, a series of model tests with the horizontally translating rigid walls are designed. Particle image velocimetry is used to study the movement and shear strain during the active failure of soil with height H and friction angle φ. The test results show that there are 3 stages of soil deformation under retaining wall translation: the initial stage, the expansion stage and the stability stage. The stable sliding surface in the model tests can be considered to be composed of two parts. Within the height range of 0.82 H-1.0 H, it is a plane at an angle of π/4+φ/2 to the horizontal plane. In the height range of 0-0.82 H, it is a curve between a logarithmic spiral and a plane at an angle of π/4+φ/2 to the horizontal. A new method applicable to any sliding surface is proposed for active earth pressure with the consideration of arching effect. The active earth pressure is computed with the actual shape of the slip surface and compared with model test data and with predictions obtained by existing methods. The comparison shows that predictions from the newly proposed method are more consistent with the measured data than the predictions from the other methods. 展开更多
关键词 particle image velocimetry retaining wall soil arching effect active earth pressure
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Pile-soil stress ratio in bidirectionally reinforced composite ground by considering soil arching effect 被引量:1
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作者 邹新军 杨眉 +1 位作者 赵明华 杨小礼 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2008年第S2期1-7,共7页
To discuss the soil arching effect on the load transferring model and sharing ratios by the piles and inter-pile subsoil in the bidirectionally reinforced composite ground, the forming mechanism, mechanical behavior a... To discuss the soil arching effect on the load transferring model and sharing ratios by the piles and inter-pile subsoil in the bidirectionally reinforced composite ground, the forming mechanism, mechanical behavior and its effect factors were discussed in detail. Then, the unified strength theory was introduced to set up the elastoplastic equilibrium differential equation of the subsoil under the limit equilibrium state. And from the equation, the solutions were derived with the corresponding formulas presented to calculate the earth pressure over and beneath the horizontal reinforced cushion or pillow, the stress of inter-pile subsoil and the pile-soil stress ratio. Based on the obtained solutions and measured data from an engineering project, the influence rules by the soil property parameters (i.e., the cohesion c and internal friction angle φ) and pile spacing on the pile-soil stress ratio n were discussed respectively. The results show that to improve the load sharing ratio by the piles, the more effective means for filling materials with a larger value of φ is to increase the ratio of pile cap size to spacing, while to reduce the pile spacing properly and increase the value of cohesion c is advisable for those filling materials with a smaller value of φ. 展开更多
关键词 composite ground PILE geosynthetic-reinforced CUSHION soil archING effect PILE-SOIL stress ratio
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Traveling wave effect on the seismic response of a steel arch bridge subjected to near fault ground motions 被引量:12
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作者 徐艳 George C Lee 《Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration》 SCIE EI CSCD 2007年第3期245-257,共13页
In the 1990s, several major earthquakes occurred throughout the world, with a common observation that near fault ground motion (NFGM) characteristics had a distinct impact on causing damage to civil engineering stru... In the 1990s, several major earthquakes occurred throughout the world, with a common observation that near fault ground motion (NFGM) characteristics had a distinct impact on causing damage to civil engineering structures that could not be predicted by using far field ground motions. Since then, seismic responses of structures under NFGMs have been extensively examined, with most of the studies focusing on structures with relatively short fundamental periods, where the traveling wave effect does not need to be considered. However, for long span bridges, especially arch bridges, the traveling wave (only time delay considered) effect may be very distinct and is therefore important. In this paper, the results from a case study on the seismic response of a steel arch bridge under selected NFGMs is presented by considering the traveling wave effect with variable apparent velocities. The effects of fling step and long period pulses of NFGMs on the seismic responses of the arch bridge are also discussed. 展开更多
关键词 traveling wave effect arch bridge near fault ground motion fling step long period pulses
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Evaluation of soil arching effect due to partially mobilized shear stress in piled and geosynthetic-reinforced embankment
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作者 LV Wei-hua WU Tao +1 位作者 GU Fan GAO Lei 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2020年第7期2094-2112,共19页
In piled and geosynthetic-reinforced(PGR) embankment, the arching behavior determines the overburden load on piles and subsoils. Placement of geosynthetic is effective in reducing the relative displacement between pil... In piled and geosynthetic-reinforced(PGR) embankment, the arching behavior determines the overburden load on piles and subsoils. Placement of geosynthetic is effective in reducing the relative displacement between pile and subsoil. When the mobilized shear stress is less than the shear strength, partially developed arching will occur. Consequently, existing analytical methods, adopting the ultimate shear strength failure criterion, need to be improved. This study developed a simplified 2 D analytical method, which is based on the developing arching effect, to evaluate the load redistribution of the PGR embankment. Then, the influences of embankment height and internal friction angle, subsoil depth, ratio of pile cap width to pile clear spacing(RPC) and geosynthetic tensile stiffness on the critical height ratio, stress concentration ratio, soil arching ratio, geosynthetic tension and axial strain were investigated. This study suggests that a RPC of 1:1.0 and a one-way of single-layer geosynthetic tensile stiffness of 2000 kN/m should be considered as the sensitivity thresholds for the PGR embankment. 展开更多
关键词 PILE GEOSYNTHETIC arching effect mobilized shear stress parametric analysis
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Analysis of Soil arching effect for Blind sheet-pile wharf based on ABAQUS
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作者 LIU YaWei WANG LiJuan 《International English Education Research》 2016年第4期51-54,共4页
Combined with practical engineering, based on the introduction of soil arching theory, we explore the impact of barrier piles in blind sheet-pile bank connecting structure. Besides, we build a plane strain model by AB... Combined with practical engineering, based on the introduction of soil arching theory, we explore the impact of barrier piles in blind sheet-pile bank connecting structure. Besides, we build a plane strain model by ABAQUS sot'cware to study the impact of cross section type, the pile spacing and soil properties on soil arching effect. We find that cross section type of the pile has a certain influence on soil stress distribution in front of the barrier piles by comparing circular cross section and rectangular cross section. We also find that clear distance between the barrier piles and cohesive force of the soil have a great influence on that impact. We can increase clear distance between the barrier piles appropriately to improve the efficiency of construction and reduce the proiect cost. 展开更多
关键词 Blind sheet-pile wharf barrier piles earth pressure soil arching effect
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Formation of the Soil Arch and Load Transfer Mechanism of a Slope due to Excavation by 3D Particle Flow Code Simulation
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作者 Chunyan Tang Huiming Tang +3 位作者 Kun Fang Xuexue Su Sixuan Sun Minghao Miao 《Journal of Earth Science》 2025年第5期1977-1988,共12页
The soil arching effect is an important factor affecting the internal load transfer of excavation-induced slopes.Physical model tests are usually used for studying the soil arching effect.Although physical model tests... The soil arching effect is an important factor affecting the internal load transfer of excavation-induced slopes.Physical model tests are usually used for studying the soil arching effect.Although physical model tests can monitor local point loads to demonstrate changes in local stresses,changes in force chains inside slopes are rarely demonstrated by physical modelling,which restricts the understanding of load transfer.To explore overall changes in stresses in slopes from a more microscopic perspective,a numerical simulation of the slope under excavation was carried out.Using built-in code and fish function programming in PFC^(3D),the slope model was developed.Monitoring areas were set up to monitor the changes in stresses and force chains during excavation.The simulation results show that excavation width affects the size of deformation area,and the deformation area expands as excavation width increases.Excavation causes load transfer and the formation of soil arching in the slope.A mechanism is proposed to explain the effect of excavation on soil arching formation and load transfer.The numerical simulation is important for revealing the load transfer of slopes during excavation,and the research results have practical value for the prevention and mitigation of landslides caused by excavation. 展开更多
关键词 PFC^(3D) arching effect EXCAVATION SAND SLOPE engineering geology
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Passive earth pressure of narrow backfill considering seismic-unsaturated seepage multi-field coupling effect
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作者 WANG Ze-yue LIN Hang 《Journal of Central South University》 2025年第4期1447-1467,共21页
Narrow backfill earth pressure estimation is applied to study the stability of supporting structures in the vicinity of existing buildings.Previous narrow backfill earth pressure studies have neglected seismic-unsatur... Narrow backfill earth pressure estimation is applied to study the stability of supporting structures in the vicinity of existing buildings.Previous narrow backfill earth pressure studies have neglected seismic-unsaturated seepage multi-field coupling,resulting in inaccurate estimates.To address these deficiencies,this paper proposed a calculation method for seismic passive earth pressure in unsaturated narrow backfill,based on inclined thin-layer units.It considers the interlayer shear stress,arching effect,and the multi-field coupling of seismic-unsaturated seepage.Additionally,this paper includes a parametric sensitivity analysis.The outcomes indicate that the earthquake passive ground pressure of unsaturated narrow backfill can be reduced by increasing the aspect ratio,seismic acceleration coefficient,and unsaturation parameterα.It can also be reduced by decreasing the effective interior friction angle,soil cohesion,wallearth friction angle,and vertical discharge.Furthermore,for any width soil,lowering the elevation of the action point of passive thrust can be attained by raising the effective interior friction angle,wall-earth friction angle,and unsaturation parameterα.Reducing soil cohesion,seismic acceleration coefficient,and vertical discharge can also lower the height of the application point of passive thrust. 展开更多
关键词 passive earth pressure unsaturated steady seepage arching effect narrow backfill EARTHQUAKE
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Effect of total arch replacement combined with stent trunk on treating De Bakey typeⅠaortic dissection
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作者 吴怡锦 彭文英 +4 位作者 吴梅芬 王晗 于长江 李欣 吴敏 《South China Journal of Cardiology》 CAS 2018年第2期130-137,共8页
Background Aortic dissection(AD) is a life-threatening surgical emergency. Total arch replacement combined with stent trunk has gradually become the standard procedure for De Bakey type Ⅰ AD in China, but the compl... Background Aortic dissection(AD) is a life-threatening surgical emergency. Total arch replacement combined with stent trunk has gradually become the standard procedure for De Bakey type Ⅰ AD in China, but the complication and mortality rates are still relatively high due to surgical technical difficulties and complexity. In principle, AD should be treated with emergency surgery once the diagnosis is confirmed, but the operation time varies greatly in China due to the restriction of medical conditions. Therefore, analyzing and comparing the surgical mortality and complications rate between acute and chronic phase may facilitate the clinicians to comprehensively evaluate the patient's condition, and thus select an appropriate operation timing. Methods A total of330 De Bakey type Ⅰ AD patients admitted and treated with total arch replacement combined with stent trunk procedure in Guangdong Cardiovascular Institute from Jan 2010 to Jan 2014 were retrospectively analyzed. According to whether the onset was longer than 2 w, patients were divided into acute phase group and chronic phase group. There were 231 cases in acute phase group(≤ 2 w), and the average length from onset to operation was 5.6± 3.8 d; while 99 cases in chronic phase group(〉 2 w), and the average length from onset to operation was 20.6 ±14.7 d. Results The total mortality rate was 13%. Acute renal failure, neurological dysfunction, and wound healing were the major complications after operation. The in-hospital morality rate was 16.0%(37/231) in the acute group, while 6.1 %(6/99) in the chronic group. The surgical data of the ratio of CABG, cardiopulmonary bypass(CPB) time, aortic cross clamp time, intra-operative RBC infusion were significant higher in the acute phase group(P 〈 0.05). The postoperative data of ICU stay, mechanical ventilation time, the incidences of neurological dysfunction, CRRT-dependent acute renal failure, hepatic insufficiency, and poor wound healing were significant higher in the acute phase group(P 〈 0.05). Conclusions The total arch replacement combined with stent trunk for De Bakey type Ⅰ aortic dissection is safe and effective. Patients in the acute phase show higher postoperative mortality and complications. The acute phase is associated with relatively higher risk of surgical treatment. 展开更多
关键词 aortic dissection DeBakey type acute chronic total arch replacement stent trunk effect
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飞机滑行荷载对跑道桩网复合地基影响的数值分析
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作者 蔡靖 张博硕 +1 位作者 范怡飞 周鹏 《西南交通大学学报》 北大核心 2026年第1期11-20,40,共11页
桩网复合地基可以有效降低道路工程工后沉降,近年来常用于对我国沿海机场飞行区的跑道和机坪系统进行地基处理.然而,目前关于桩网复合地基的研究多集中于工前静承载特性,缺乏跑道下地基工前沉降完成后,飞机滑行荷载作用对跑道桩网复合... 桩网复合地基可以有效降低道路工程工后沉降,近年来常用于对我国沿海机场飞行区的跑道和机坪系统进行地基处理.然而,目前关于桩网复合地基的研究多集中于工前静承载特性,缺乏跑道下地基工前沉降完成后,飞机滑行荷载作用对跑道桩网复合地基影响的定量评价研究.本文通过改变填土层厚度、桩间距、飞机机型等参数,基于动载影响系数、工后差异沉降比和土拱度退化系数等指标,利用有限元软件ABAQUS对飞机滑行荷载作用下跑道桩网复合地基的受力变形特性进行数值分析,量化飞机滑行荷载对跑道桩网复合地基承载和沉降特性的影响.研究表明:当填土层厚度由4.5 m减小至1.5 m时,土拱退化参数由3.3%升至15.1%;当桩间距由6d减小至3d(d为桩直径)时,土拱退化参数由7.8%升至12.0%,软土层位置处的工后差异沉降比可能超过规范建议值;填土层厚度越小、桩间距和飞机重量越大、起落架荷载越集中,飞机滑行荷载作用后的土拱弱化越明显. 展开更多
关键词 跑道 桩网复合地基 滑行荷载 土拱效应 沉降比
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异形排架拱桥拱肋构件风荷载遮挡效应风洞试验研究
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作者 侯旭 王学军 +3 位作者 刘曜坤 龙航 温青 华旭刚 《中外公路》 2026年第1期169-176,共8页
排架拱桥是一种新颖的结构形式,排架密集布置的空间构件对风荷载存在显著的遮挡效应。该文以拱肋构件密集布置的异形排架拱为工程背景,通过标准双方形拱肋和双矩形拱肋、带翼板双方形拱肋和双矩形拱肋节段模型风洞试验,获得了0°~90... 排架拱桥是一种新颖的结构形式,排架密集布置的空间构件对风荷载存在显著的遮挡效应。该文以拱肋构件密集布置的异形排架拱为工程背景,通过标准双方形拱肋和双矩形拱肋、带翼板双方形拱肋和双矩形拱肋节段模型风洞试验,获得了0°~90°风向角范围内中心间距对拱肋构件气动阻力和气动升力系数的影响,分析了拱肋构件风荷载遮挡效应特征。风洞试验研究结果表明:迎风拱肋的遮挡效应会使背风拱肋阻力系数明显减小,且中心间距比越小,背风拱肋阻力越小。随着风向角增大,迎风拱肋遮挡效应减弱,当风向角超过30°后,遮挡效应基本消失;翼板对背风拱肋气动阻力的影响与中心间距比和风向角相关,在0°~30°风向角内,翼板基本不影响背风拱肋气动阻力,在30°~90°风向角内,翼板使背风拱肋气动阻力出现差异,差异大小与中心间距比相关。 展开更多
关键词 排架拱桥 拱肋 遮挡效应 气动力 风洞试验
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基于ARMA-GARCH模型的黄金价格实证分析 被引量:32
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作者 潘贵豪 胡乃联 +1 位作者 刘焕中 李国清 《黄金》 CAS 北大核心 2010年第1期5-8,共4页
研究黄金价格的动态演变过程至关重要。文中以1971年1月至2008年12月期间的伦敦黄金交易市场下午定盘价格为基础,利用时间序列的相关理论,建立了黄金价格的ARMA-GARCH模型,并对2008年数据进行了实证分析,其结果非常接近。利用该模型可... 研究黄金价格的动态演变过程至关重要。文中以1971年1月至2008年12月期间的伦敦黄金交易市场下午定盘价格为基础,利用时间序列的相关理论,建立了黄金价格的ARMA-GARCH模型,并对2008年数据进行了实证分析,其结果非常接近。利用该模型可动态刻画黄金价格数据的生成过程,也可帮助黄金产品投资者和生产者做出更加灵活、科学的决策。 展开更多
关键词 黄金价格 arch效应 时间序列 实证分析
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基于GARCH族模型的我国股市波动性研究 被引量:13
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作者 姜翔程 熊亚敏 《西南师范大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS 北大核心 2017年第2期115-119,共5页
选取1996年12月16日到2015年5月19日期间上证综指和深证成指日收益率数据,建立二变量指标的GARCH模型、TARCH模型和EGARCH模型,对我国股市的波动性进行实证分析.结果发现:EGARCH模型能较好地拟合沪深两市日收益率波动的时间序列,而且我... 选取1996年12月16日到2015年5月19日期间上证综指和深证成指日收益率数据,建立二变量指标的GARCH模型、TARCH模型和EGARCH模型,对我国股市的波动性进行实证分析.结果发现:EGARCH模型能较好地拟合沪深两市日收益率波动的时间序列,而且我国股市存在显著的非对称性,表现为股票市场上投资者对利好消息的反应小于对同等程度的利空消息的反应. 展开更多
关键词 收益率波动性 Garch族模型 arch效应 非对称性
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超大直径曲线盾构隧道土拱效应的离散元模拟
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作者 黄澳 范杰 张孟喜 《公路交通科技》 北大核心 2026年第1期201-209,共9页
【目标】针对超大直径曲线盾构隧道掘进过程中因非对称地层损失引起的复杂应力传递机制开展研究,旨在揭示曲线隧道上方土拱效应的形成规律、内外边界特征及其不对称性,并量化其对隧道周围土体应力与位移分布的影响。【方法】基于离散元... 【目标】针对超大直径曲线盾构隧道掘进过程中因非对称地层损失引起的复杂应力传递机制开展研究,旨在揭示曲线隧道上方土拱效应的形成规律、内外边界特征及其不对称性,并量化其对隧道周围土体应力与位移分布的影响。【方法】基于离散元方法,通过控制盾尾间隙与曲线内侧超挖间隙实现不同非对称地层损失率的模拟,从而模拟开挖诱发的土体扰动,并与现场实测地表沉降进行对比,验证了该模型的可靠性;基于此模型,研究了超大直径盾构曲线掘进时隧道周围的土拱效应及其内、外边界的判定,进而证明了曲线盾构隧道开挖引起的土拱具有不对称性,并进一步分析了其对隧道的影响。【结果】随着地层损失率增加,隧道上方松动区范围扩大,扰动呈典型倒三角形分布,松动区上方形成应力重新分配的土拱区。将切向应力拐点和切向应力恢复到初始切向应力90%两点所在位置作为土拱内、外边界,可将隧道上方土体由下至上分为3个区域:松动区—土拱区—稳定区。与直线隧道产生的对称土拱不同,曲线隧道超挖导致非对称地层损失增大,并且最大主应力方向更多地改变,从而形成了非对称的拱形应力传递轨迹,即非对称土拱,且非对称土拱使得径向应力下降幅度更大。【结论】研究结果为曲线盾构隧道衬砌受力评估、支护设计及施工控制提供了可靠的数值依据与理论参考。 展开更多
关键词 隧道工程 土拱效应 离散元 曲线盾构隧道 非对称地层损失
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基于ARMA-GARCH的股指期货实证分析 被引量:3
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作者 李丹 郑伟 +1 位作者 张伟伟 徐天群 《武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版)》 CAS 2014年第5期690-694,共5页
基于沪深300股票指数期货的时间序列数据,研究了股指期货收益序列的平稳性,建立了ARMA-GARCH模型,通过模型中的均值方程和波动方程,发现初期期货市场上的交易状况偏向于风险厌恶型,得到了收益变化的循环周期大约为3.6天,股指期货市场的... 基于沪深300股票指数期货的时间序列数据,研究了股指期货收益序列的平稳性,建立了ARMA-GARCH模型,通过模型中的均值方程和波动方程,发现初期期货市场上的交易状况偏向于风险厌恶型,得到了收益变化的循环周期大约为3.6天,股指期货市场的波动存在ARCH效应和长记忆性特点。说明市场初期交易者对市场的信息反馈非常敏感和迅速,并且呈现出群体效应和连锁行为,有增大市场风险的可能。 展开更多
关键词 沪深300股票指数期货 平稳性 ARMA-Garch模型 商业环 arch效应
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股权分置改革中上证指数的波动——基于ARCH类模型的比较分析 被引量:5
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作者 刘明 王仁曾 《统计与信息论坛》 2006年第6期89-92,共4页
股权分置改革中股市的波动性受到各方因素的影响。文章运用ARCH类模型,对股权分置改革中的上证指数进行分时段拟合分析,发现改革前的市场有更大的波动性并存在反向杠杆效应,且不及股改后的市场有效率。
关键词 股权分置改革 arch效应 波动性 效率
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基于ARMA-ARCH模型的自备电厂煤气供入量变化趋势预测研究 被引量:1
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作者 孟华 王建军 +2 位作者 王华 范国锋 李红娟 《昆明理工大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS 北大核心 2014年第3期66-72,共7页
为了掌握钢铁企业自备电厂煤气供入量的变化趋势,基于采样数据建立了自回归移动平均(ARMA)模型,利用拉格朗日乘数法(LM)检验出ARMA模型残差存在自回归条件异方差(ARCH)效应,建立ARMA-ARCH模型.分别使用ARMA模型和ARMA-ARCH模型进行短期... 为了掌握钢铁企业自备电厂煤气供入量的变化趋势,基于采样数据建立了自回归移动平均(ARMA)模型,利用拉格朗日乘数法(LM)检验出ARMA模型残差存在自回归条件异方差(ARCH)效应,建立ARMA-ARCH模型.分别使用ARMA模型和ARMA-ARCH模型进行短期预测,并比较两者的精度.最后基于概率分布对扰动项进行统计分析,得到生产中稳定性差是导致扰动项大的主要原因,与实际生产相吻合.研究表明,ARMA-ARCH模型的预测精度较高,预测误差为4.11%,能够较为准确地预测出钢铁企业自备电厂煤气供入量变化趋势,对实际生产中频繁调节锅炉开关和优化调度决策有着重要的作用. 展开更多
关键词 趋势预测 ARMA模型 arch效应 概率分布
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复合地层纯气体带压开舱盾构开挖面失稳机理
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作者 魏纲 王可 +2 位作者 尹鑫晟 莫佩浦 王哲 《浙江工业大学学报》 北大核心 2026年第1期37-46,共10页
依托杭州市某新建下穿公路隧道,对纯气体支护条件下的盾构隧道开挖面主动失稳破坏过程开展数值模拟,从而得到开挖面变形规律、地表沉降特征及失稳破坏模式,并对比数值模拟极限支护压力与工程监测数据验证数值模拟结果可靠性。进一步分... 依托杭州市某新建下穿公路隧道,对纯气体支护条件下的盾构隧道开挖面主动失稳破坏过程开展数值模拟,从而得到开挖面变形规律、地表沉降特征及失稳破坏模式,并对比数值模拟极限支护压力与工程监测数据验证数值模拟结果可靠性。进一步分析开挖面拱顶土体应力变化状态,揭示了土体应力状态变化对土拱效应的影响过程。研究结果表明:当支护比λ=0.75时处于极限平衡状态;开挖面最大沉降量为5.13×10^(-4) m,地表最大沉降位置在开挖面前方0.50D处;当λ=0.75时开挖面拱顶形成土拱,土拱高度约1.00D,X向宽度约1.50D,Y向宽度约4.45D;通过对比分析,数值模拟得到的极限支护压力较为可靠。 展开更多
关键词 复合地层 盾构隧道 主动失稳 数值模拟 土拱效应
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基于ARMA-ARCH模型和BP模型的短期风速组合预测方法研究 被引量:9
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作者 赵征 王晓亮 张亚刚 《电网与清洁能源》 2018年第11期45-51,共7页
随着风力发电的大规模并网,由风速的波动引起的网侧不稳定现象越来越显著。为了提高风电场风速预测的精度,首先建立了ARMA模型,利用拉格朗日乘数法检验ARMA模型残差的条件异方差效应,从而建立ARMA-ARCH模型;其次建立BP神经网络预测模型... 随着风力发电的大规模并网,由风速的波动引起的网侧不稳定现象越来越显著。为了提高风电场风速预测的精度,首先建立了ARMA模型,利用拉格朗日乘数法检验ARMA模型残差的条件异方差效应,从而建立ARMA-ARCH模型;其次建立BP神经网络预测模型;最后分别以固定权和时变权方差-协方差(MV)法将ARMA-ARCH模型和BP模型进行优选组合预测。为验证模型的适应性,分别以西班牙某风电场2016年8月和2017年1月的风速数据进行建模仿真。仿真结果表明:组合预测模型的预测结果更优,且时变权组合预测精度更高;对于单一模型来说ARMA-ARCH模型的预测精度要高于BP模型,而ARMA模型的预测精度最低。 展开更多
关键词 风速预测 arch模型 BP模型 组合模型 arch效应检验
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