In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming ...In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming has become one of the hottest topics in the scientific community and is closely connected to the future development of human society.We analyzed the monthly varying global mean surface temperature(GMST)in 2023 and found that the globe,the land,and the oceans in 2023 all exhibit extraordinary warming,which is distinct from any previous year in recorded history.Based on the GMST statistical ensemble prediction model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the GMST in 2023 is predicted to be 1.41℃±0.07℃,which will certainly surpass that in 2016 as the warmest year since 1850,and is approaching the 1.5℃ global warming threshold.Compared to 2022,the GMST in 2023 will increase by 0.24℃,with 88%of the increment contributed by the annual variability as mostly affected by El Niño.Moreover,the multidecadal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)in 2023 also provided an important warming background for sparking the GMST rise.As a result,the GMST in 2023 is projected to be 1.15℃±0.07℃,with only a 0.02℃ increment,if the effects of natural variability—including El Niño and the AMO—are eliminated and only the global warming trend is considered.展开更多
穿越地球时空研究计划(Cross Earth System Time and Space,CRESTS计划)将结合模式模拟与古气候资料,对过去130 ka的气候进行研究,以此对气候模式进行校验。太平洋年代际震荡(PDO)与大西洋多年代际震荡(AMO)作为全球年代际变化的主要模...穿越地球时空研究计划(Cross Earth System Time and Space,CRESTS计划)将结合模式模拟与古气候资料,对过去130 ka的气候进行研究,以此对气候模式进行校验。太平洋年代际震荡(PDO)与大西洋多年代际震荡(AMO)作为全球年代际变化的主要模态,在全球气候变化研究中具有重要地位。目前已有不少古气候记录用于重建过去500—1000 a以来的PDO和AMO变化。作为CRESTS计划中的年代际气候变率重建的前期调研,汇总了目前已发表的PDO和AMO重建记录(以.xlsx格式存储),对这些记录的经纬度、载体类型、分辨率、指示意义等进行总结,以推动古PDO和AMO的重建研究。收集整理前人用于重建AMO与PDO的109条古气候记录,涉及的载体包括树轮、冰芯、珊瑚、硬海绵、历史文献、湖泊和深海沉积物。其中AMO重建的记录为77条,PDO重建的记录为32条。报告按照时间跨度、时间分辨率和重建内容对收集的记录进行分类整理。此外,还对前人重建结果的不确定性来源进行了总结。展开更多
基金supported by the Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.ZDBS-LY-DQC010)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42175045).
文摘In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since 1850.Whether 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming has become one of the hottest topics in the scientific community and is closely connected to the future development of human society.We analyzed the monthly varying global mean surface temperature(GMST)in 2023 and found that the globe,the land,and the oceans in 2023 all exhibit extraordinary warming,which is distinct from any previous year in recorded history.Based on the GMST statistical ensemble prediction model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the GMST in 2023 is predicted to be 1.41℃±0.07℃,which will certainly surpass that in 2016 as the warmest year since 1850,and is approaching the 1.5℃ global warming threshold.Compared to 2022,the GMST in 2023 will increase by 0.24℃,with 88%of the increment contributed by the annual variability as mostly affected by El Niño.Moreover,the multidecadal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)in 2023 also provided an important warming background for sparking the GMST rise.As a result,the GMST in 2023 is projected to be 1.15℃±0.07℃,with only a 0.02℃ increment,if the effects of natural variability—including El Niño and the AMO—are eliminated and only the global warming trend is considered.
文摘穿越地球时空研究计划(Cross Earth System Time and Space,CRESTS计划)将结合模式模拟与古气候资料,对过去130 ka的气候进行研究,以此对气候模式进行校验。太平洋年代际震荡(PDO)与大西洋多年代际震荡(AMO)作为全球年代际变化的主要模态,在全球气候变化研究中具有重要地位。目前已有不少古气候记录用于重建过去500—1000 a以来的PDO和AMO变化。作为CRESTS计划中的年代际气候变率重建的前期调研,汇总了目前已发表的PDO和AMO重建记录(以.xlsx格式存储),对这些记录的经纬度、载体类型、分辨率、指示意义等进行总结,以推动古PDO和AMO的重建研究。收集整理前人用于重建AMO与PDO的109条古气候记录,涉及的载体包括树轮、冰芯、珊瑚、硬海绵、历史文献、湖泊和深海沉积物。其中AMO重建的记录为77条,PDO重建的记录为32条。报告按照时间跨度、时间分辨率和重建内容对收集的记录进行分类整理。此外,还对前人重建结果的不确定性来源进行了总结。
