Bayesian inference model is an optimal processing of incomplete information that, more than other models, better captures the way in which any decision-maker learns and updates his degree of rational beliefs about pos...Bayesian inference model is an optimal processing of incomplete information that, more than other models, better captures the way in which any decision-maker learns and updates his degree of rational beliefs about possible states of nature, in order to make a better judgment while taking new evidence into account. Such a scientific model proposed for the general theory of decision-making, like all others in general, whether in statistics, economics, operations research, A.I., data science or applied mathematics, regardless of whether they are time-dependent, have in common a theoretical basis that is axiomatized by relying on related concepts of a universe of possibles, especially the so-called universe (or the world), the state of nature (or the state of the world), when formulated explicitly. The issue of where to stand as an observer or a decision-maker to reframe such a universe of possibles together with a partition structure of knowledge (i.e. semantic formalisms), including a copy of itself as it was initially while generalizing it, is not addressed. Memory being the substratum, whether human or artificial, wherein everything stands, to date, even the theoretical possibility of such an operation of self-inclusion is prohibited by pure mathematics. We make this blind spot come to light through a counter-example (namely Archimedes’ Eureka experiment) and explore novel theoretical foundations, fitting better with a quantum form than with fuzzy modeling, to deal with more than a reference universe of possibles. This could open up a new path of investigation for the general theory of decision-making, as well as for Artificial Intelligence, often considered as the science of the imitation of human abilities, while being also the science of knowledge representation and the science of concept formation and reasoning.展开更多
文摘Bayesian inference model is an optimal processing of incomplete information that, more than other models, better captures the way in which any decision-maker learns and updates his degree of rational beliefs about possible states of nature, in order to make a better judgment while taking new evidence into account. Such a scientific model proposed for the general theory of decision-making, like all others in general, whether in statistics, economics, operations research, A.I., data science or applied mathematics, regardless of whether they are time-dependent, have in common a theoretical basis that is axiomatized by relying on related concepts of a universe of possibles, especially the so-called universe (or the world), the state of nature (or the state of the world), when formulated explicitly. The issue of where to stand as an observer or a decision-maker to reframe such a universe of possibles together with a partition structure of knowledge (i.e. semantic formalisms), including a copy of itself as it was initially while generalizing it, is not addressed. Memory being the substratum, whether human or artificial, wherein everything stands, to date, even the theoretical possibility of such an operation of self-inclusion is prohibited by pure mathematics. We make this blind spot come to light through a counter-example (namely Archimedes’ Eureka experiment) and explore novel theoretical foundations, fitting better with a quantum form than with fuzzy modeling, to deal with more than a reference universe of possibles. This could open up a new path of investigation for the general theory of decision-making, as well as for Artificial Intelligence, often considered as the science of the imitation of human abilities, while being also the science of knowledge representation and the science of concept formation and reasoning.
