On the basis of describing characteristics and condition of application of natural growth model of population,weighted average growth model,regression forecast model and GM(1,1)forecast model,taking Gushi County in He...On the basis of describing characteristics and condition of application of natural growth model of population,weighted average growth model,regression forecast model and GM(1,1)forecast model,taking Gushi County in Henan Province as an example,according to the statistics of population in Gushi County Statistical Yearbook from 1991 to 2007,we establish four models to conduct fitting on population change respectively,and meanwhile,we predict population size from 2008 to 2009 and conduct preciseness test on the population size.The test results show that the preciseness of forecast results of natural growth model is not high,and the preciseness of forecast results of weighted average growth model is not scientific when the total size of population is unstable.The results of GM(1,1)forecast model and regression forecast model largely conform to the actual data,so we can take the mean of the two as the final forecast result.展开更多
文摘On the basis of describing characteristics and condition of application of natural growth model of population,weighted average growth model,regression forecast model and GM(1,1)forecast model,taking Gushi County in Henan Province as an example,according to the statistics of population in Gushi County Statistical Yearbook from 1991 to 2007,we establish four models to conduct fitting on population change respectively,and meanwhile,we predict population size from 2008 to 2009 and conduct preciseness test on the population size.The test results show that the preciseness of forecast results of natural growth model is not high,and the preciseness of forecast results of weighted average growth model is not scientific when the total size of population is unstable.The results of GM(1,1)forecast model and regression forecast model largely conform to the actual data,so we can take the mean of the two as the final forecast result.
