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Fifth-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems (5th-CASAM-N): II. Paradigm Application to a Bernoulli Model Comprising Uncertain Parameters 被引量:1
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作者 Dan Gabriel Cacuci 《American Journal of Computational Mathematics》 2022年第1期119-161,共43页
This work presents the application of the recently developed “Fifth-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems (5<sup>th</sup>-CASAM-N)” to a simplified Bernoulli ... This work presents the application of the recently developed “Fifth-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Nonlinear Systems (5<sup>th</sup>-CASAM-N)” to a simplified Bernoulli model. The 5<sup>th</sup>-CASAM-N builds upon and incorporates all of the lower-order (i.e., the first-, second-, third-, and fourth-order) adjoint sensitivities analysis methodologies. The Bernoulli model comprises a nonlinear model response, uncertain model parameters, uncertain model domain boundaries and uncertain model boundary conditions, admitting closed-form explicit expressions for the response sensitivities of all orders. Illustrating the specific mechanisms and advantages of applying the 5<sup>th</sup>-CASAM-N for the computation of the response sensitivities with respect to the uncertain parameters and boundaries reveals that the 5<sup>th</sup>-CASAM-N provides a fundamental step towards overcoming the curse of dimensionality in sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. 展开更多
关键词 Fifth-Order Sensitivity Analysis of Bernoulli model uncertain model Parameters uncertain model Domain Boundaries uncertain model Boundary Conditions
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Uncertain optimal model and solving method to platform scheduling problem in battlefield 被引量:2
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作者 Yu Sun Peiyang Yao +1 位作者 Dongdong Shui Jieyong Zhang 《Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics》 SCIE EI CSCD 2016年第1期157-165,共9页
The platform scheduling problem in battlefield is one of the important problems in military operational research.It needs to minimize mission completing time and meanwhile maximize the mission completing accuracy with... The platform scheduling problem in battlefield is one of the important problems in military operational research.It needs to minimize mission completing time and meanwhile maximize the mission completing accuracy with a limited number of platforms.Though the traditional certain models obtain some good results,uncertain model is still needed to be introduced since the battlefield environment is complex and unstable.An uncertain model is prposed for the platform scheduling problem.Related parameters in this model are set to be fuzzy or stochastic.Due to the inherent disadvantage of the solving methods for traditional models,a new method is proposed to solve the uncertain model.Finally,the practicability and availability of the proposed method are demonstrated with a case of joint campaign. 展开更多
关键词 operational research platform scheduling uncertain model solving method.
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Robust model predictive control for discrete uncertain nonlinear systems with time-delay via fuzzy model 被引量:7
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作者 SU Cheng-li WANG Shu-qing 《Journal of Zhejiang University-Science A(Applied Physics & Engineering)》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2006年第10期1723-1732,共10页
An extended robust model predictive control approach for input constrained discrete uncertain nonlinear systems with time-delay based on a class of uncertain T-S fuzzy models that satisfy sector bound condition is pre... An extended robust model predictive control approach for input constrained discrete uncertain nonlinear systems with time-delay based on a class of uncertain T-S fuzzy models that satisfy sector bound condition is presented. In this approach, the minimization problem of the “worst-case” objective function is converted into the linear objective minimization problem in- volving linear matrix inequalities (LMIs) constraints. The state feedback control law is obtained by solving convex optimization of a set of LMIs. Sufficient condition for stability and a new upper bound on robust performance index are given for these kinds of uncertain fuzzy systems with state time-delay. Simulation results of CSTR process show that the proposed robust predictive control approach is effective and feasible. 展开更多
关键词 uncertain Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy model TIME-DELAY model predictive control (MPC) Linear matrix inequalities(LMIs) Robustness
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Interval analysis method and convex models for impulsive response of structures with uncertain-but-bounded external loads 被引量:7
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作者 Zhiping Qiu Xiaojun Wang 《Acta Mechanica Sinica》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2006年第3期265-276,共12页
Two non-probabilistic, set-theoretical methods for determining the maximum and minimum impulsive responses of structures to uncertain-but-bounded impulses are presented. They are, respectively, based on the theories o... Two non-probabilistic, set-theoretical methods for determining the maximum and minimum impulsive responses of structures to uncertain-but-bounded impulses are presented. They are, respectively, based on the theories of interval mathematics and convex models. The uncertain-but-bounded impulses are assumed to be a convex set, hyper-rectangle or ellipsoid. For the two non-probabilistic methods, less prior information is required about the uncertain nature of impulses than the probabilistic model. Comparisons between the interval analysis method and the convex model, which are developed as an anti-optimization problem of finding the least favorable impulsive response and the most favorable impulsive response, are made through mathematical analyses and numerical calculations. The results of this study indicate that under the condition of the interval vector being determined from an ellipsoid containing the uncertain impulses, the width of the impulsive responses predicted by the interval analysis method is larger than that by the convex model; under the condition of the ellipsoid being determined from an interval vector containing the uncertain impulses, the width of the interval impulsive responses obtained by the interval analysis method is smaller than that by the convex model. 展开更多
关键词 Impulsive response Interval analysis method Convex model uncertain-but-bounded impulse
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A Modeling and Probabilistic Reasoning Method of Dynamic Uncertain Causality Graph for Industrial Fault Diagnosis 被引量:1
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作者 Chun-Ling Dong Qin Zhang Shi-Chao Geng 《International Journal of Automation and computing》 EI CSCD 2014年第3期288-298,共11页
Online automatic fault diagnosis in industrial systems is essential for guaranteeing safe, reliable and efficient operations.However, difficulties associated with computational overload, ubiquitous uncertainties and i... Online automatic fault diagnosis in industrial systems is essential for guaranteeing safe, reliable and efficient operations.However, difficulties associated with computational overload, ubiquitous uncertainties and insufficient fault samples hamper the engineering application of intelligent fault diagnosis technology. Geared towards the settlement of these problems, this paper introduces the method of dynamic uncertain causality graph, which is a new attempt to model complex behaviors of real-world systems under uncertainties. The visual representation to causality pathways and self-relied "chaining" inference mechanisms are analyzed. In particular, some solutions are investigated for the diagnostic reasoning algorithm to aim at reducing its computational complexity and improving the robustness to potential losses and imprecisions in observations. To evaluate the effectiveness and performance of this method, experiments are conducted using both synthetic calculation cases and generator faults of a nuclear power plant. The results manifest the high diagnostic accuracy and efficiency, suggesting its practical significance in large-scale industrial applications. 展开更多
关键词 Fault diagnosis causality model probabilistic graphical model uncertain knowledge representation weighted logic inference.
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Controller design of uncertain nonlinear systems based on T-S fuzzy model 被引量:1
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作者 Songtao ZHANG Shizhen BAI 《控制理论与应用(英文版)》 EI 2009年第2期139-143,共5页
A robust control for uncertain nonlinear systems based on T-S fuzzy model is discussed in this paper. First, a T-S fuzzy system is adopted to model the uncertain nonlinear systems. Then, for the system with input vari... A robust control for uncertain nonlinear systems based on T-S fuzzy model is discussed in this paper. First, a T-S fuzzy system is adopted to model the uncertain nonlinear systems. Then, for the system with input variables adopting standard fuzzy partitions, the efficient maximal overlapped-rules group (EMORG) is presented, and a new sufficient condition to check the stability of T-S fuzzy system with uncertainty is derived, which is expressed in terms of Linear Matrix Inequalities. The derived stability condition, which only requires a local common positive definite matrix in each EMORG, can reduce the conservatism and difficulty in existing stability conditions. Finally, a simulation example shows the proposed approach is effective. 展开更多
关键词 Controller design uncertain nonlinear systems T-S fuzzy model
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Grey Qualitative Modeling and Control Method for Subjective Uncertain Systems
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作者 Peng Wang Shu-Jie Li +1 位作者 Yan Lv Zong-Hai Chen 《International Journal of Automation and computing》 EI CSCD 2015年第1期70-76,共7页
A new approach to model and control an unknown system using subjective uncertain rules is proposed. This method is established by combining the grey system theory and the qualitative simulation method. The proposed ap... A new approach to model and control an unknown system using subjective uncertain rules is proposed. This method is established by combining the grey system theory and the qualitative simulation method. The proposed approach mainly contains three steps. In the first step, subjective uncertain rules are accumulated gradually during cognizing the system; the mapping relations between the system inputs and outputs are built and represented using the grey qualitative matrix in the second step; in the third step,the generalized whitening function is defined to realize the transformation between qualitative and quantitative information. Besides the theoretical results, two sets of simulations based on a water level control system are conducted comparatively to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The water level expectation is set to be constant in the first set, while it changes in the second set. The simulation results show that the proposed method tracks the water level expectation well. By combining the proposed method with proportional-integral-derivative(PID) or fuzzy logic controller(FLC), it can be concluded that the system can reach the stable state more quickly and the overshoot can also be reduced compared to using PID or FLC alone. 展开更多
关键词 uncertain system qualitative modeling knowledge representation subjective uncertainty grey qualitative method
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Research on Credit Risk Measurement Based on Uncertain KMV Model
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作者 Ni Zhan Liang Lin Ting Lou 《Journal of Applied Mathematics and Physics》 2013年第5期12-17,共6页
Regarding KMV model identification credit risk profile of small and medium-sized listed companies, at present, domestic scholars has made some achievements in the process of the KMV model combined with China’s nation... Regarding KMV model identification credit risk profile of small and medium-sized listed companies, at present, domestic scholars has made some achievements in the process of the KMV model combined with China’s national conditions. In this paper, we will amend the model by using uncertain interest rate instead of fixed rate on the basis of existing research. Comparing the uncertain KMV model to traditional KMV model with ST-listed companies and non-ST-listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange, we find that it performs slightly better as a predictor in uncertain KMV model and in out of sample forecasts. 展开更多
关键词 CREDIT RISKS KMV model uncertain INTEREST RATE
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A Sliding Mode Observer for Uncertain Nonlinear Systems Based on Multiple Models Approach 被引量:2
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作者 Kd s Hfa edh Karim Dahech Tarak Damak 《International Journal of Automation and computing》 EI CSCD 2017年第2期202-212,共11页
This paper presents a method of state estimation for uncertain nonlinear systems described by multiple models approach. The uncertainties, supposed as norm bounded type, are caused by some parameters' variations of t... This paper presents a method of state estimation for uncertain nonlinear systems described by multiple models approach. The uncertainties, supposed as norm bounded type, are caused by some parameters' variations of the nonlinear system. Linear matri~ inequalities (LMIs) have been established in order to ensure the stability conditions of the multiple observer which lead to determine the estimation gains. A sliding mode gain has been added in order to compensate the uncertainties. Numerical simulations through a state space model of a real process have been realized to show the robustness of the synthesized observer. 展开更多
关键词 uncertain nonlinear system norm bounded uncertainty multiple models approach multiple observer sliding modeobserver.
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Influences of uncertain parameters on groundwater contaminant transport modeling
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《Global Geology》 1998年第1期99-100,共2页
关键词 Influences of uncertain parameters on groundwater contaminant transport modeling
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Second-Order Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology for Computing Exactly Response Sensitivities to Uncertain Parameters and Boundaries of Linear Systems: Mathematical Framework 被引量:3
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作者 Dan Gabriel Cacuci 《American Journal of Computational Mathematics》 2020年第3期329-354,共26页
This work presents the “Second-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology (2<sup>nd</sup>-CASAM)” for the efficient and exact computation of 1<sup>st</sup>- and 2<sup>... This work presents the “Second-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology (2<sup>nd</sup>-CASAM)” for the efficient and exact computation of 1<sup>st</sup>- and 2<sup>nd</sup>-order response sensitivities to uncertain parameters and domain boundaries of linear systems. The model’s response (<em>i.e.</em>, model result of interest) is a generic nonlinear function of the model’s forward and adjoint state functions, and also depends on the imprecisely known boundaries and model parameters. In the practically important particular case when the response is a scalar-valued functional of the forward and adjoint state functions characterizing a model comprising N parameters, the 2<sup>nd</sup>-CASAM requires a single large-scale computation using the First-Level Adjoint Sensitivity System (1<sup>st</sup>-LASS) for obtaining all of the first-order response sensitivities, and at most N large-scale computations using the Second-Level Adjoint Sensitivity System (2<sup>nd</sup>-LASS) for obtaining exactly all of the second-order response sensitivities. In contradistinction, forward other methods would require (<em>N</em>2/2 + 3 <em>N</em>/2) large-scale computations for obtaining all of the first- and second-order sensitivities. This work also shows that constructing and solving the 2<sup>nd</sup>-LASS requires very little additional effort beyond the construction of the 1<sup>st</sup>-LASS needed for computing the first-order sensitivities. Solving the equations underlying the 1<sup>st</sup>-LASS and 2<sup>nd</sup>-LASS requires the same computational solvers as needed for solving (<em>i.e.</em>, “inverting”) either the forward or the adjoint linear operators underlying the initial model. Therefore, the same computer software and “solvers” used for solving the original system of equations can also be used for solving the 1<sup>st</sup>-LASS and the 2<sup>nd</sup>-LASS. Since neither the 1<sup>st</sup>-LASS nor the 2<sup>nd</sup>-LASS involves any differentials of the operators underlying the original system, the 1<sup>st</sup>-LASS is designated as a “<u>first-level</u>” (as opposed to a “first-order”) adjoint sensitivity system, while the 2<sup>nd</sup>-LASS is designated as a “<u>second-level</u>” (rather than a “second-order”) adjoint sensitivity system. Mixed second-order response sensitivities involving boundary parameters may arise from all source terms of the 2<sup>nd</sup>-LASS that involve the imprecisely known boundary parameters. Notably, the 2<sup>nd</sup>-LASS encompasses an automatic, inherent, and independent “solution verification” mechanism of the correctness and accuracy of the 2nd-level adjoint functions needed for the efficient and exact computation of the second-order sensitivities. 展开更多
关键词 Second-Order Comprehensive Adjoint Sensitivity Analysis Methodology (2nd-CASAM) First-Level Adjoint Sensitivity System (1st-LASS) Second-Level Adjoint Sensitivity System (2nd-LASS) Operator-Type Response Second-Order Sensitivities to uncertain model Boundaries Second-Order Sensitivities to uncertain model Parameters
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Nonlinear Uncertain HIV-1 Model Controller by Using Control Lyapunov Function
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作者 Fatma A. Alazabi Mohamed A. Zohdy 《International Journal of Modern Nonlinear Theory and Application》 2012年第2期33-39,共7页
In this paper, we introduce a new Control Lyapunov Function (CLF) approach for controlling the behavior of nonlinear uncertain HIV-1 models. The uncertainty is in decay parameters and also external control setting. CL... In this paper, we introduce a new Control Lyapunov Function (CLF) approach for controlling the behavior of nonlinear uncertain HIV-1 models. The uncertainty is in decay parameters and also external control setting. CLF is then applied to different strategies. One such strategy considers input into infected cells population stage and the other considers input into a virus population stage. Furthermore, by adding noise to the HIV-1 model a realistic comparison between control strategies is presented to evaluate the system’s dynamics. It has been demonstrated that nonlinear control has effectiveness and robustness, in reducing virus loading to an undetectable level. 展开更多
关键词 HIV-1 INFECTION model CONTROL LYAPUNOV Function (CLF) CONTROL Strategy uncertain Parameters Noise Effect
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Fuzzy Adaptive Tracking Control of Uncertain Strict-Feedback Nonlinear Systems with Disturbances Based on Generalized Fuzzy Hyperbolic Model
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作者 Jingxuan Shi Zhongjun Yang 《Journal of Computer and Communications》 2020年第10期50-59,共10页
In this paper, a fuzzy adaptive tracking control for uncertain strict-feedback nonlinear systems with unknown bounded disturbances is proposed. The generalized fuzzy hyperbolic model (GFHM) with better approximation p... In this paper, a fuzzy adaptive tracking control for uncertain strict-feedback nonlinear systems with unknown bounded disturbances is proposed. The generalized fuzzy hyperbolic model (GFHM) with better approximation performance is used to approximate the unknown nonlinear function in the system. The dynamic surface control (DSC) is used to design the controller, which not only avoids the “explosion of complexity” problem in the process of repeated derivation, but also makes the control system simpler in structure and lower in computational cost because only one adaptive law is designed in the controller design process. Through the Lyapunov stability analysis, all signals in the closed loop system designed in this paper are semi-globally uniformly ultimately bounded (SGUUB). Finally, the effectiveness of the method is verified by a simulation example. 展开更多
关键词 Disturbances uncertain Strict-Feedback Nonlinear Systems Adaptive Control Generalized Fuzzy Hyperbolic model Dynamic Surface Control
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A Hybrid Inexact Optimization Model for Land-use Allocation of China 被引量:7
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作者 ZHOU Min CAI Yunlong +2 位作者 GUAN Xingliang TAN Shukui LU Shasha 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2015年第1期62-73,共12页
Land scarcity has become the prominent obstacle on the way to sustainable development for China. Under the constraints of land shortage, how to allocate the finite land resources to the multiple land users in China co... Land scarcity has become the prominent obstacle on the way to sustainable development for China. Under the constraints of land shortage, how to allocate the finite land resources to the multiple land users in China considering various political, environmental, ecological and economic conditions have become research topics with great significance. In this study, an interval fuzzy national-scale land-use model(IFNLM) was developed for optimizing land systems of China. IFNLM is based on an integration of existing interval linear programming(ILP), and fuzzy flexible programming(FFP) techniques. IFNLM allows uncertainties expressed as discrete interval values and fuzzy sets to be incorporated within a general optimization framework. It can also facilitate national-scale land-use planning under various environmental, ecological, social conditions within a multi-period and multi-option context. Then, IFNLM was applied to a real case study of land-use planning in China. The satisfaction degree of environmental constraints is between 0.69 and 0.97, the system benefit will between 198.25 × 1012 USD and 229.67 × 1012 USD. The results indicated that the hybrid model can help generate desired policies for land-use allocation with a maximized economic benefit and minimized environmental violation risk. Optimized land-use allocation patterns can be generated from the proposed IFNLM. 展开更多
关键词 land-use planning uncertain model interval linear programming(ILP) fuzzy flexible programming(FFP) environmental protection interval fuzzy national-scale land-use model(IFNLM)
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Design of Model Following Variable Structure Controller for Three-axle Vehicle 被引量:1
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作者 管西强 张建武 屈求真 《Journal of Donghua University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 2003年第1期100-104,共5页
An optimal control procedure is developed for the front and rear wheels of a three-axle vehicle moving on a complex typical road based on model following variable structure control strategy. The actual vehicle may be ... An optimal control procedure is developed for the front and rear wheels of a three-axle vehicle moving on a complex typical road based on model following variable structure control strategy. The actual vehicle may be considered as an uncertain system. Cornering stiffness of front and rear wheels and external disturbances are varied in a limited range. The model-following variable structure control method is used to control both front and rear wheels steering operations of the vehicle, so that steering responses of the vehicle follow from those of the reference model. By numerical results obtained from computer simulation, it is demonstrated that the control system model can cope with the effects of parameter perturbations and outside disturbances. 展开更多
关键词 Three-axle vehicle model following control Variable structure control. uncertain model.
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Landslide hazards mapping using uncertain Na?ve Bayesian classification method 被引量:5
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作者 毛伊敏 张茂省 +1 位作者 王根龙 孙萍萍 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第9期3512-3520,共9页
Landslide hazard mapping is a fundamental tool for disaster management activities in Loess terrains. Aiming at major issues with these landslide hazard assessment methods based on Naive Bayesian classification techniq... Landslide hazard mapping is a fundamental tool for disaster management activities in Loess terrains. Aiming at major issues with these landslide hazard assessment methods based on Naive Bayesian classification technique, which is difficult in quantifying those uncertain triggering factors, the main purpose of this work is to evaluate the predictive power of landslide spatial models based on uncertain Naive Bayesian classification method in Baota district of Yan'an city in Shaanxi province, China. Firstly, thematic maps representing various factors that are related to landslide activity were generated. Secondly, by using field data and GIS techniques, a landslide hazard map was performed. To improve the accuracy of the resulting landslide hazard map, the strategies were designed, which quantified the uncertain triggering factor to design landslide spatial models based on uncertain Naive Bayesian classification method named NBU algorithm. The accuracies of the area under relative operating characteristics curves(AUC) in NBU and Naive Bayesian algorithm are 87.29% and 82.47% respectively. Thus, NBU algorithm can be used efficiently for landslide hazard analysis and might be widely used for the prediction of various spatial events based on uncertain classification technique. 展开更多
关键词 uncertain Bayesian model LANDSLIDE hazard assessment
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EXTENSION OF CONVEX MODELS AND ITS IMPROVEMENT ON THE APPROXIMATE SOLUTION 被引量:3
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作者 邱志平 顾元宪 《Acta Mechanica Sinica》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 1996年第4期349-357,共9页
In this paper, by means of combining non-probabilistic convex modeling with perturbation theory, an improvement is made on the first order approximate solution in convex models of uncertainties. Convex modeling is ext... In this paper, by means of combining non-probabilistic convex modeling with perturbation theory, an improvement is made on the first order approximate solution in convex models of uncertainties. Convex modeling is extended to largely uncertain and non-convex sets of uncertainties and the combinational convex modeling is developed. The presented method not only extends applications of convex modeling, but also improves its accuracy in uncertain problems and computational efficiency. The numerical example illustrates the efficiency of the proposed method. 展开更多
关键词 convex modeling uncertain but bounded parameters NONCONVEXITY PERTURBATION first order approximation
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Robust Neural Control of Discrete Time Uncertain Nonlinear Systems Using Sliding Mode Backpropagation Training Algorithm 被引量:6
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作者 Imen Zaidi Mohamed Chtourou Mohamed Djemel 《International Journal of Automation and computing》 EI CSCD 2019年第2期213-225,共13页
This work deals with robust inverse neural control strategy for a class of single-input single-output(SISO) discrete-time nonlinear system affected by parametric uncertainties. According to the control scheme, in the ... This work deals with robust inverse neural control strategy for a class of single-input single-output(SISO) discrete-time nonlinear system affected by parametric uncertainties. According to the control scheme, in the first step, a direct neural model(DNM)is used to learn the behavior of the system, then, an inverse neural model(INM) is synthesized using a specialized learning technique and cascaded to the uncertain system as a controller. In previous works, the neural models are trained classically by backpropagation(BP) algorithm. In this work, the sliding mode-backpropagation(SM-BP) algorithm, presenting some important properties such as robustness and speedy learning, is investigated. Moreover, four combinations using classical BP and SM-BP are tested to determine the best configuration for the robust control of uncertain nonlinear systems. Two simulation examples are treated to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed control strategy. 展开更多
关键词 Discrete time uncertain nonlinear systems NEURAL modelling SLIDING mode backpropagation (BP) algorithm ROBUST NEURAL control
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Stability analysis and control synthesis of uncertain Roesser-type discrete-time two-dimensional systems
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作者 王佳 会国涛 解相朋 《Chinese Physics B》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2013年第3期79-84,共6页
We study the stability analysis and control synthesis of uncertain discrete-time two-dimensional(2D) systems.The mathematical model of the discrete-time 2D system is established upon the well-known Roesser model,and... We study the stability analysis and control synthesis of uncertain discrete-time two-dimensional(2D) systems.The mathematical model of the discrete-time 2D system is established upon the well-known Roesser model,and the uncertainty phenomenon,which appears typically in practical environments,is modeled by a convex bounded(polytope type) uncertain domain.The stability analysis and control synthesis of uncertain discrete-time 2D systems are then developed by applying the Lyapunov stability theory.In the processes of stability analysis and control synthesis,the obtained stability/stabilzaition conditions become less conservative by applying some novel relaxed techniques.Moreover,the obtained results are formulated in the form of linear matrix inequalities,which can be easily solved via standard numerical software.Finally,numerical examples are given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the obtained results. 展开更多
关键词 uncertain two-dimensional systems Roesser model Lyapunov stability theory control synthesis
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中国海洋渔业绿色发展效率的时空演化——基于不确定性EBM模型
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作者 赵昕 李静洋 丁黎黎 《资源科学》 北大核心 2025年第5期1153-1164,共12页
【目的】从固碳增汇新视角,科学测算中国海洋渔业绿色发展效率,有效把握其时空演化特征,助力粮食安全战略落实和“双碳”目标实现的协同推进。【方法】本文将海洋渔业CO_(2)排放量与海洋渔业碳汇以不确定性变量的形式引入EBM模型中,对2... 【目的】从固碳增汇新视角,科学测算中国海洋渔业绿色发展效率,有效把握其时空演化特征,助力粮食安全战略落实和“双碳”目标实现的协同推进。【方法】本文将海洋渔业CO_(2)排放量与海洋渔业碳汇以不确定性变量的形式引入EBM模型中,对2008—2023年中国9个沿海省份的海洋渔业绿色发展效率进行测算,而后利用核密度估计、标准差椭圆、基尼系数和马尔可夫矩阵探析其时空演化特征。【结果】①从时序演化特征来看,中国海洋渔业绿色发展效率整体呈波动式上升趋势,经历了“先抑后扬—震荡发展—稳步提升”的过程。②从空间分布特征来看,海洋渔业绿色发展效率逐渐演变为“东部>北部>南部”。进一步,沿海省份海洋渔业绿色发展效率总体差距减小,区域不平衡现象缓解。③从趋势预测来看,沿海省份海洋渔业绿色发展效率具有维持原有等级的稳定性,存在“低效率锁定”现象,实现跨越式发展的概率较小。【结论】“十五五”时期,需立足其区域资源禀赋与协调发展需求,制定差异化的扶持政策,推动海洋渔业的绿色协同发展。 展开更多
关键词 海洋渔业 碳排放 海洋渔业碳汇 时空演化 不确定性DEA模型
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