Balancing urbanization with ecological carrying capacity is essential for sustainable urban development.Traditional land use prediction and urban growth boundary(UGB)delineation methods often overlook ecological asses...Balancing urbanization with ecological carrying capacity is essential for sustainable urban development.Traditional land use prediction and urban growth boundary(UGB)delineation methods often overlook ecological assessments and fail to address policy conflicts.This study proposes an integrated model combining urban spatial suitability(USS)and ecological carrying capacity(ECC)evaluations with cellular automata(CA)model to improve simulation accuracy and support scenario-based UGB delineation.First,we identify spatial variations in urban development potential under different scenarios by adjusting the weights of USS and ECC.Then,a multi-objective planning model is used to optimize the future land-use structure,maximizing overall benefits.Finally,the development potential and optimized land allocation are incorporated into the CA model to simulate future land use and delineate UGB for each scenario.Results show that integrating USS and ECC evaluations improves simulation accuracy,with the Kappa coefficient increasing from 0.836(with only USS evaluation)to 0.908 and overall accuracy reaching 94.1%.While the economic development scenario yields the highest economic benefits,a stronger emphasis on ECC produces more compact and spatially organized urban forms,characterized by higher aggregation and lower fragmentation.This framework provides a robust basis for multi-scenario urban simulation and offers valuable guidance for the scientific UGB delineation.展开更多
Temporal and spatial scales play important roles in fishery ecology,and an inappropriate spatio-temporal scale may result in large errors in modeling fish distribution.The objective of this study is to evaluate the ro...Temporal and spatial scales play important roles in fishery ecology,and an inappropriate spatio-temporal scale may result in large errors in modeling fish distribution.The objective of this study is to evaluate the roles of spatio-temporal scales in habitat suitability modeling,with the western stock of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid （Ornmastrephes bartramii） in the northwest Pacific Ocean as an example.In this study,the fishery-dependent data from the Chinese Mainland Squid Jigging Technical Group and sea surface temperature （SST） from remote sensing during August to October of 2003-2008 were used.We evaluated the differences in a habitat suitability index model resulting from aggregating data with 36 different spatial scales with a combination of three latitude scales （0.5°,1 ° and 2°）,four longitude scales （0.5°,1°,2° and 4°）,and three temporal scales （week,fortnight,and month）.The coefficients of variation （CV） of the weekly,biweekly and monthly suitability index （SI） were compared to determine which temporal and spatial scales of SI model are more precise.This study shows that the optimal temporal and spatial scales with the lowest CV are month,and 0.5° latitude and 0.5° longitude for O.bartramii in the northwest Pacific Ocean.This suitability index model developed with an optimal scale can be cost-effective in improving forecasting fishing ground and requires no excessive sampling efforts.We suggest that the uncertainty associated with spatial and temporal scales used in data aggregations needs to be considered in habitat suitability modeling.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.42571278。
文摘Balancing urbanization with ecological carrying capacity is essential for sustainable urban development.Traditional land use prediction and urban growth boundary(UGB)delineation methods often overlook ecological assessments and fail to address policy conflicts.This study proposes an integrated model combining urban spatial suitability(USS)and ecological carrying capacity(ECC)evaluations with cellular automata(CA)model to improve simulation accuracy and support scenario-based UGB delineation.First,we identify spatial variations in urban development potential under different scenarios by adjusting the weights of USS and ECC.Then,a multi-objective planning model is used to optimize the future land-use structure,maximizing overall benefits.Finally,the development potential and optimized land allocation are incorporated into the CA model to simulate future land use and delineate UGB for each scenario.Results show that integrating USS and ECC evaluations improves simulation accuracy,with the Kappa coefficient increasing from 0.836(with only USS evaluation)to 0.908 and overall accuracy reaching 94.1%.While the economic development scenario yields the highest economic benefits,a stronger emphasis on ECC produces more compact and spatially organized urban forms,characterized by higher aggregation and lower fragmentation.This framework provides a robust basis for multi-scenario urban simulation and offers valuable guidance for the scientific UGB delineation.
基金funded by National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program,2012AA092303)Project of Shanghai Science and Technology Innovation (12231203900)+2 种基金Industrialization Program of National Development and Reform Commission (2159999)National Science and Technology Support Program (2013BAD13B01)Shanghai Leading Academic Discipline Project
文摘Temporal and spatial scales play important roles in fishery ecology,and an inappropriate spatio-temporal scale may result in large errors in modeling fish distribution.The objective of this study is to evaluate the roles of spatio-temporal scales in habitat suitability modeling,with the western stock of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid （Ornmastrephes bartramii） in the northwest Pacific Ocean as an example.In this study,the fishery-dependent data from the Chinese Mainland Squid Jigging Technical Group and sea surface temperature （SST） from remote sensing during August to October of 2003-2008 were used.We evaluated the differences in a habitat suitability index model resulting from aggregating data with 36 different spatial scales with a combination of three latitude scales （0.5°,1 ° and 2°）,four longitude scales （0.5°,1°,2° and 4°）,and three temporal scales （week,fortnight,and month）.The coefficients of variation （CV） of the weekly,biweekly and monthly suitability index （SI） were compared to determine which temporal and spatial scales of SI model are more precise.This study shows that the optimal temporal and spatial scales with the lowest CV are month,and 0.5° latitude and 0.5° longitude for O.bartramii in the northwest Pacific Ocean.This suitability index model developed with an optimal scale can be cost-effective in improving forecasting fishing ground and requires no excessive sampling efforts.We suggest that the uncertainty associated with spatial and temporal scales used in data aggregations needs to be considered in habitat suitability modeling.
