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Empirical Likelihood for Autoregressive Models with Spatial Errors
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作者 Ying-hua LI Yong-song QIN 《Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica》 2025年第3期775-796,共22页
In this article,we study the empirical likelihood(EL)method for autoregressive models with spatial errors.The EL ratio statistics are constructed for the parameters of the models.It is shown that the limiting distribu... In this article,we study the empirical likelihood(EL)method for autoregressive models with spatial errors.The EL ratio statistics are constructed for the parameters of the models.It is shown that the limiting distributions of the EL ratio statistics are chi-square distributions,which are used to construct confidence intervals for the parameters of the models.A simulation study is conducted to compare the performances of the EL based and the normal approximation(NA)based confidence intervals.Simulation results show that the confidence intervals based on EL are superior to the NA based confidence intervals. 展开更多
关键词 autoregressive model spatial error empirical likelihood confidence region
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A robust seismic wavefield modeling method based on minimizing spatial simulation error using L_(2)-norm cost function
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作者 Wei-Ting Peng Jian-Ping Huang 《Petroleum Science》 2025年第3期1051-1061,共11页
To reduce the spatial simulation error generated by the finite difference method,previous researchers compute the optimal finite-difference weights always by minimizing the error of spatial dispersion relation.However... To reduce the spatial simulation error generated by the finite difference method,previous researchers compute the optimal finite-difference weights always by minimizing the error of spatial dispersion relation.However,we prove that the spatial simulation error of the finite difference method is associated with the dot product of the spatial dispersion relation of the finite-difference weights and the spectrum of the seismic wavefield.Based on the dot product relation,we construct a L_(2) norm cost function to minimize spatial simulation error.For solving this optimization problem,the seismic wavefield infor-mation in wavenumber region is necessary.Nevertheless,the seismic wavefield is generally obtained by costly forward modeling techniques.To reduce the computational cost,we substitute the spectrum of the seismic wavelet for the spectrum of the seismic wavefield,as the seismic wavelet plays a key role in determining the seismic wavefield.In solving the optimization problem,we design an exhaustive search method to obtain the solution of the L_(2) norm optimization problem.After solving the optimization problem,we are able to achieve the finite-difference weights that minimize spatial simulation error.In theoretical error analyses,the finite-difference weights from the proposed method can output more accurate simulation results compared to those from previous optimization algorithms.Furthermore,we validate our method through numerical tests with synthetic models,which encompass homogenous/inhomogeneous media as well as isotropic and anisotropic media. 展开更多
关键词 Finite-difference scheme FD coefficients spatial simulation error spatial dispersion relation Seismic wavefield
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Spatial Modeling of COVID-19 Occurrence and Vaccination Rate across Counties in Ohio State from Jan. 2020 to April 2023
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作者 Olawale Oluwafemi Oluwaseun Ibukun +3 位作者 Yaw Kwarteng Kehinde Adebowale Yahaya Danjuma Samson Mela 《Journal of Geographic Information System》 2025年第1期80-96,共17页
The study aims to investigate county-level variations of the COVID-19 disease and vaccination rate. The COVID-19 data was acquired from usafact.org, and the vaccination records were acquired from the Ohio vaccination ... The study aims to investigate county-level variations of the COVID-19 disease and vaccination rate. The COVID-19 data was acquired from usafact.org, and the vaccination records were acquired from the Ohio vaccination tracker dashboard. GIS-based exploratory analysis was conducted to select four variables (poverty, black race, population density, and vaccination) to explain COVID-19 occurrence during the study period. Consequently, spatial statistical techniques such as Moran’s I, Hot Spot Analysis, Spatial Lag Model (SLM), and Spatial Error Model (SEM) were used to explain the COVID-19 occurrence and vaccination rate across the 88 counties in Ohio. The result of the Local Moran’s I analysis reveals that the epicenters of COVID-19 and vaccination followed the same patterns. Indeed, counties like Summit, Franklin, Fairfield, Hamilton, and Medina were categorized as epicenters for both COVID-19 occurrence and vaccination rate. The SEM seems to be the best model for both COVID-19 and vaccination rates, with R2 values of 0.68 and 0.70, respectively. The GWR analysis proves to be better than Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), and the distribution of R2 in the GWR is uneven throughout the study area for both COVID-19 cases and vaccinations. Some counties have a high R2 of up to 0.70 for both COVID-19 cases and vaccinations. The outcomes of the regression analyses show that the SEM models can explain 68% - 70% of COVID-19 cases and vaccination across the entire counties within the study period. COVID-19 cases and vaccination rates exhibited significant positive associations with black race and poverty throughout the study area. 展开更多
关键词 COVID-19 Prevalence COVID-19 Vaccination OHIO spatial Lag Model spatial error Model
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Monte Carlo Method for the Uncertainty Evaluation of Spatial Straightness Error Based on New Generation Geometrical Product Specification 被引量:10
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作者 WEN Xiulan XU Youxiong +2 位作者 LI Hongsheng WANG Fenglin SHENG Danghong 《Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2012年第5期875-881,共7页
Straightness error is an important parameter in measuring high-precision shafts. New generation geometrical product speeifieation(GPS) requires the measurement uncertainty characterizing the reliability of the resul... Straightness error is an important parameter in measuring high-precision shafts. New generation geometrical product speeifieation(GPS) requires the measurement uncertainty characterizing the reliability of the results should be given together when the measurement result is given. Nowadays most researches on straightness focus on error calculation and only several research projects evaluate the measurement uncertainty based on "The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement(GUM)". In order to compute spatial straightness error(SSE) accurately and rapidly and overcome the limitations of GUM, a quasi particle swarm optimization(QPSO) is proposed to solve the minimum zone SSE and Monte Carlo Method(MCM) is developed to estimate the measurement uncertainty. The mathematical model of minimum zone SSE is formulated. In QPSO quasi-random sequences are applied to the generation of the initial position and velocity of particles and their velocities are modified by the constriction factor approach. The flow of measurement uncertainty evaluation based on MCM is proposed, where the heart is repeatedly sampling from the probability density function(PDF) for every input quantity and evaluating the model in each case. The minimum zone SSE of a shaft measured on a Coordinate Measuring Machine(CMM) is calculated by QPSO and the measurement uncertainty is evaluated by MCM on the basis of analyzing the uncertainty contributors. The results show that the uncertainty directly influences the product judgment result. Therefore it is scientific and reasonable to consider the influence of the uncertainty in judging whether the parts are accepted or rejected, especially for those located in the uncertainty zone. The proposed method is especially suitable when the PDF of the measurand cannot adequately be approximated by a Gaussian distribution or a scaled and shifted t-distribution and the measurement model is non-linear. 展开更多
关键词 uncertainty evaluation Monte Carlo method spatial straightness error quasi particle swarm optimization minimum zone solution geometrical product specification
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PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS AND MONTE CARLO SIMULATION OF THE KINEMATIC ERROR IN A SPATIAL LINKAGE 被引量:1
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作者 徐卫良 张启先 《Journal of Southeast University(English Edition)》 EI CAS 1989年第2期40-48,共9页
The stochastic models of the usual joints are first established through intro-ducing the concepts of“clearance characteristic element”and“clearance space”.After de-riving the probability density function of the jo... The stochastic models of the usual joints are first established through intro-ducing the concepts of“clearance characteristic element”and“clearance space”.After de-riving the probability density function of the joint clearance and making the probabilisticanalysis of the resulted kinematic errors,the sampling formulas of the independent varia-bles of the joint clearances are further deduced.Through Monte Carlo simulation,the sta-tistical characteristics and frequency histograms of the kinematic errors are then analysedon computer. 展开更多
关键词 PROBABILITY analysis simuiation/spatial LINKAGE error JOINT CLEARANCE
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Geometric Approximation Searching Algorithm for Spatial Straightness Error Evaluation 被引量:1
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作者 Jishun Li Xianqing Lei +1 位作者 Yujun Xue Weimin Pan 《Modern Instrumentation》 2013年第1期1-6,共6页
Considering the characteristics of spatial straightness error, this paper puts forward a kind of evaluation method of spatial straightness error using Geometric Approximation Searching Algorithm (GASA). According to t... Considering the characteristics of spatial straightness error, this paper puts forward a kind of evaluation method of spatial straightness error using Geometric Approximation Searching Algorithm (GASA). According to the minimum condition principle of form error evaluation, the mathematic model and optimization objective of the GASA are given. The algorithm avoids the optimization and linearization, and can be fulfilled in three steps. First construct two parallel quadrates based on the preset two reference points of the spatial line respectively;second construct centerlines by connecting one quadrate each vertices to another quadrate each vertices;after that, calculate the distances between measured points and the constructed centerlines. The minimum zone straightness error is obtained by repeating comparing and reconstructing quadrates. The principle and steps of the algorithm to evaluate spatial straightness error is described in detail, and the mathematical formula and program flowchart are given also. Results show that this algorithm can evaluate spatial straightness error more effectively and exactly. 展开更多
关键词 error Evaluation spatial STRAIGHTNESS GEOMETRIC APPROXIMATION SEARCHING Algorithm Minimum ZONE
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一种评价磁流变抛光工艺误差抑制能力的方法
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作者 高博 范斌 +2 位作者 王佳 吴湘 辛强 《激光技术》 北大核心 2025年第1期135-143,共9页
为了分析磁流变加工过程中去除函数对加工精度的影响以及去除函数的抗中频误差性能,采用平滑谱方法对加工中误差抑制能力进行了评估。通过非球面光学元件对平滑谱方法及传统功率谱方法进行了理论分析、仿真实验及实验验证,采用平滑谱方... 为了分析磁流变加工过程中去除函数对加工精度的影响以及去除函数的抗中频误差性能,采用平滑谱方法对加工中误差抑制能力进行了评估。通过非球面光学元件对平滑谱方法及传统功率谱方法进行了理论分析、仿真实验及实验验证,采用平滑谱方法及传统功率谱方法分析了去除函数对非球面光学元件的面形误差和中频误差的抑制能力。结果表明,平滑谱方法对加工中误差抑制能力即去除函数可修正的面形误差值为0.22 mm-1;平滑谱函数可直观地判断去除函数对面形误差和中频误差的抑制能力,并可明确地定量化判断中频误差的变化规律。此方法为磁流变加工中误差抑制能力的评估问题提供了一种解决方案。 展开更多
关键词 光学制造 误差评价 平滑谱曲线 中频误差
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A Calculation Method of Profile Error Influenced by Tool Error for Two-Axis Coordinated CNC Machining of a Spatial Barrel-Cam
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作者 YIN Ming-Fu, LU Chuan-Yi, CHEN Jin-Kui Xi’an University of Technology, Xi’an 710048, P. R. China Shandong Institute of Technology, Zibo 255012, P. R. China 《International Journal of Plant Engineering and Management》 2001年第2期92-97,共6页
Taking the CNC machining for the spatial barrel-cam with rectilinear translating and a conical roller follower as an example, the calculation method and the law of the profile error influenced by the tool error is given.
关键词 spatial barrel-cam CNC machining profile error calculation method
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Spatial Image Watermarking by Error-Correction Coding in Gray Codes
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作者 Tadahiko Kimoto 《Journal of Signal and Information Processing》 2013年第3期259-273,共15页
In this paper, error-correction coding (ECC) in Gray codes is considered and its performance in the protecting of spatial image watermarks against lossy data compression is demonstrated. For this purpose, the differen... In this paper, error-correction coding (ECC) in Gray codes is considered and its performance in the protecting of spatial image watermarks against lossy data compression is demonstrated. For this purpose, the differences between bit patterns of two Gray codewords are analyzed in detail. On the basis of the properties, a method for encoding watermark bits in the Gray codewords that represent signal levels by a single-error-correcting (SEC) code is developed, which is referred to as the Gray-ECC method in this paper. The two codewords of the SEC code corresponding to respective watermark bits are determined so as to minimize the expected amount of distortion caused by the watermark embedding. The stochastic analyses show that an error-correcting capacity of the Gray-ECC method is superior to that of the ECC in natural binary codes for changes in signal codewords. Experiments of the Gray-ECC method were conducted on 8-bit monochrome images to evaluate both the features of watermarked images and the performance of robustness for image distortion resulting from the JPEG DCT-baseline coding scheme. The results demonstrate that, compared with a conventional averaging-based method, the Gray-ECC method yields watermarked images with less amount of signal distortion and also makes the watermark comparably robust for lossy data compression. 展开更多
关键词 GRAY CODE error-Correcting CODE Digital WATERMARK spatial Domain JPEG DCT-Based Compression
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线上线下混合式的“空间数据误差处理”课程建设及教学改革实践
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作者 赵峰 汪云甲 +2 位作者 孙久运 刘志平 张华 《晋城职业技术学院学报》 2025年第5期58-61,96,共5页
针对“空间数据误差处理”课程传统线下教学模式存在的问题,基于智慧教育平台,采用线上线下混合式教学的新模式进行了课程的建设及教学改革实践。将该教学模式应用到某高校地理信息科学专业2020—2022级学生的课程教学中,并在课程结束... 针对“空间数据误差处理”课程传统线下教学模式存在的问题,基于智慧教育平台,采用线上线下混合式教学的新模式进行了课程的建设及教学改革实践。将该教学模式应用到某高校地理信息科学专业2020—2022级学生的课程教学中,并在课程结束后开展问卷调查,结果表明绝大部分学生对采用的线上线下教学方式表示满意,认为教学效果较好,说明该模式可以提高“空间数据误差处理”课程的教学效果,为培养高质量地理信息专业人才奠定基础。 展开更多
关键词 混合式教学 空间数据误差处理 教学实践
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基于平滑流式预测误差滤波的多道反褶积方法
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作者 秦宁 李凌云 +3 位作者 田坤 李傲伟 孙小东 赵亮 《石油物探》 北大核心 2025年第5期854-863,共10页
地震反褶积是提高地震资料分辨率的有效方法,在偏移成像和储层预测等领域发挥着重要作用。传统的反褶积方法通常基于平稳条件采用逐道反演策略进行,虽然可以在一定程度上提高地震记录的分辨率,但缺乏空间约束会导致处理结果的空间连续... 地震反褶积是提高地震资料分辨率的有效方法,在偏移成像和储层预测等领域发挥着重要作用。传统的反褶积方法通常基于平稳条件采用逐道反演策略进行,虽然可以在一定程度上提高地震记录的分辨率,但缺乏空间约束会导致处理结果的空间连续性较差。因此,提出了一种基于流式预测误差滤波器的多道反褶积方法。该方法利用时间和空间约束实现多道自适应反褶积,提高非平稳地震数据反褶积结果的空间连续性。同时,引入平滑矩阵,有利于保护边界和地质构造不被模糊化,对于地质构造复杂的地区尤为重要。新的反褶积方法能有效提高地震数据的纵向分辨率,同时,经过流计算减少计算量,适合处理非平稳的大规模数据。合成数据处理结果表明,加入空间约束能够改善反褶积结果的空间连续性,实际数据处理结果验证了该方法的有效性和实用性。 展开更多
关键词 多道反褶积 流式预测误差滤波 空间连续性 平滑矩阵 非平稳地震数据
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高等教育与经济增长的影响机制研究
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作者 傅书勇 翟金龙 孙淑军 《科技和产业》 2025年第14期255-260,共6页
旨在研究高等教育对经济增长作用机制。基于2010—2021年中国30个省份(因数据缺失,为包含西藏地区和港澳台地区)面板数据,首先利用中介效应探究技术创新在高等教育影响机制中的作用,其次利用空间误差模型对高等教育与经济增长之间关系... 旨在研究高等教育对经济增长作用机制。基于2010—2021年中国30个省份(因数据缺失,为包含西藏地区和港澳台地区)面板数据,首先利用中介效应探究技术创新在高等教育影响机制中的作用,其次利用空间误差模型对高等教育与经济增长之间关系进行实证分析。结果表明,中介效应检验中各变量均通过显著性检验;空间视角上,技术创新对经济增长的作用存在区域差异。因此,技术创新的中介效应是高等教育对经济增长的作用路径。 展开更多
关键词 高等教育 经济增长 技术创新 中介效应 空间误差模型
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黄河流域城市经济韧性时空分异及影响因素研究
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作者 赵玲 周鑫玥 《西安财经大学学报》 2025年第2期93-105,共13页
为把握地级市尺度下黄河流域城市经济韧性的时空格局及动态演进趋势,促进黄河流域高质量发展,文章基于2010—2021年黄河流域76个地级市单元的面板数据,借助全局趋势分析、标准差椭圆、Moran’s I指数、Kernel密度等方法揭示黄河流域城... 为把握地级市尺度下黄河流域城市经济韧性的时空格局及动态演进趋势,促进黄河流域高质量发展,文章基于2010—2021年黄河流域76个地级市单元的面板数据,借助全局趋势分析、标准差椭圆、Moran’s I指数、Kernel密度等方法揭示黄河流域城市经济韧性的时空演变特征及动态演进趋势,并进一步采用SEM模型对黄河流域城市经济韧性的影响因素进行分解。结果表明:黄河流域城市经济韧性水平整体呈上升趋势,且研究期内下游城市的经济韧性水平均高于上游、中游城市;低经济韧性水平城市具有连片式分布的特点;上游、下游地区城市经济韧性水平的区域内差异具有扩大的趋势,中游地区城市区域内差异具有先缩小后扩大特征。黄河流域城市经济韧性的空间格局在东西方向呈现“U”型分布,而在南北方向呈倒“U”型分布,且重心略向西南方向移动;人力资本水平、城市创新能力、产业结构优化、城市收入水平对黄河流域城市经济韧性水平存在显著正向影响,城镇化及市场规模呈负向影响。 展开更多
关键词 黄河流域 城市经济 经济韧性 空间误差模型
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Enhancement of Error-Correction Coding of Spatial Watermarks in Gray Code
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作者 Tadahiko Kimoto 《Journal of Signal and Information Processing》 2013年第1期57-63,共7页
This paper demonstrates how channel coding can improve the robustness of spatial image watermarks against signal distortion caused by lossy data compression such as the JPEG scheme by taking advantage of the propertie... This paper demonstrates how channel coding can improve the robustness of spatial image watermarks against signal distortion caused by lossy data compression such as the JPEG scheme by taking advantage of the properties of Gray code. Two error-correction coding (ECC) schemes are used here: One scheme, referred to as the vertical ECC (VECC), is to encode information bits in a pixel by error-correction coding where the Gray code is used to improve the performance. The other scheme, referred to as the horizontal ECC (HECC), is to encode information bits in an image plane. In watermarking, HECC generates a codeword representing watermark bits, and each bit of the codeword is encoded by VECC. Simple single-error-correcting block codes are used in VECC and HECC. Several experiments of these schemes were conducted on test images. The result demonstrates that the error-correcting performance of HECC just depends on that of VECC, and accordingly, HECC enhances the capability of VECC. Consequently, HECC with appropriate codes can achieve stronger robustness to JPEG—caused distortions than non-channel-coding watermarking schemes. 展开更多
关键词 error-CORRECTION Coding GRAY Code Digital WATERMARK spatial Domain JPEG DCT Compression
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基于Hybrid Model的浙江省太阳总辐射估算及其时空分布特征
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作者 顾婷婷 潘娅英 张加易 《气象科学》 2025年第2期176-181,共6页
利用浙江省两个辐射站的观测资料,对地表太阳辐射模型Hybrid Model在浙江省的适用性进行评估分析。在此基础上,利用Hybrid Model重建浙江省71个站点1971—2020年的地表太阳辐射日数据集,并分析其时空变化特征。结果表明:Hybrid Model模... 利用浙江省两个辐射站的观测资料,对地表太阳辐射模型Hybrid Model在浙江省的适用性进行评估分析。在此基础上,利用Hybrid Model重建浙江省71个站点1971—2020年的地表太阳辐射日数据集,并分析其时空变化特征。结果表明:Hybrid Model模拟效果良好,和A-P模型计算结果进行对比,杭州站的平均误差、均方根误差、平均绝对百分比误差分别为2.01 MJ·m^(-2)、2.69 MJ·m^(-2)和18.02%,而洪家站的平均误差、均方根误差、平均绝对百分比误差分别为1.41 MJ·m^(-2)、1.85 MJ·m^(-2)和11.56%,误差均低于A-P模型,且Hybrid Model在各月模拟的误差波动较小。浙江省近50 a平均地表总辐射在3733~5060 MJ·m^(-2),高值区主要位于浙北平原及滨海岛屿地区。1971—2020年浙江省太阳总辐射呈明显减少的趋势,气候倾向率为-72 MJ·m^(-2)·(10 a)^(-1),并在1980s初和2000年中期发生了突变减少。 展开更多
关键词 Hybrid Model 太阳总辐射 误差分析 时空分布
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多尺度山地植被总初级生产力遥感估算中的误差来源解析
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作者 谢馨瑶 李爱农 +1 位作者 田洁 邬昌林 《遥感学报》 北大核心 2025年第1期203-218,共16页
山地生态系统是陆地重要的贮碳库,准确估算山地植被总初级生产力GPP(Gross Primary Productivity)可进一步认知陆地植被对全球气候变化的反馈作用。然而,现有植被GPP遥感产品常忽略地形对光合作用过程的控制作用和亚像元空间异质性,分... 山地生态系统是陆地重要的贮碳库,准确估算山地植被总初级生产力GPP(Gross Primary Productivity)可进一步认知陆地植被对全球气候变化的反馈作用。然而,现有植被GPP遥感产品常忽略地形对光合作用过程的控制作用和亚像元空间异质性,分别导致了“地形误差”和“空间尺度误差”。本文以四川王朗国家级自然保护区为例,重点解析高(30 m)、中(480 m)、低(960 m)空间分辨率下山地植被GPP遥感估算中的误差来源。结果表明:不同地形条件模拟下的多尺度植被GPP呈现出明显的空间差异(区域均值差距高达198 g(/m^(2)·a)),说明忽略山地环境的特殊性将对GPP遥感估算结果造成较大偏差;植被GPP遥感估算地形误差随着空间分辨率的降低呈现减小的趋势,高空间分辨率下的地形误差不容忽视(区域偏差高达200 g(/m^(2)·a))。其中,未考虑水分重分配导致山地植被GPP空间分布存在较大不确定性(均方根误差为402 g(/m^(2)·a)),因此土壤水分模拟精度的提升将有助于进一步改善山地高空间分辨率植被GPP遥感产品。从植被GPP遥感估算空间尺度误差的角度来说,研究发现其随着空间分辨率的降低呈现增大的趋势,中、低空间分辨率下的尺度误差均不容忽视(分别为161 g(/m^(2)·a)和210 g(/m^(2)·a))。因此,本文建议在多尺度山地植被GPP遥感估算中,高空间分辨率产品应该重点关注地形效应,中、低空间分辨率产品应该进一步消除空间尺度误差。本研究结果可为生产山地植被GPP遥感产品提供有益认知,丰富山地定量遥感理论体系,助力“双碳”目标。 展开更多
关键词 遥感 植被总初级生产力 山地生态系统 多尺度 地形误差 空间尺度误差
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Spatial Pattern Evolution and Influencing Factors of Cold Storage in China 被引量:7
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作者 LI Jinfeng XU Haicheng +2 位作者 LIU Wanwan WANG Dongfang ZHOU Shuang 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 2020年第3期505-515,共11页
Cold storage is the vital infrastructure of cold chain logistics. In this study, we analyzed the spatial pattern evolution characteristics, spatial autocorrelation and influencing factors of cold storage in China by u... Cold storage is the vital infrastructure of cold chain logistics. In this study, we analyzed the spatial pattern evolution characteristics, spatial autocorrelation and influencing factors of cold storage in China by using kernel density estimation(KDE), spatial autocorrelation analysis(SAA), and spatial error model(SEM). Results showed that: 1) the spatial distribution of cold storage in China is unbalanced, and has evolved from ‘one core’ to ‘one core and many spots’, that is, ‘one core’ refers to the Bohai Rim region mainly including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong and Liaoning regions, and ‘many spots’ mainly include the high-density areas such as Shanghai, Fuzhou, Guangzhou, Zhengzhou, Hefei, Wuhan, ürümqi. 2) The distribution of cold storage has significant global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation, and the ‘High-High’ cluster area is the most stable, mainly concentrated in the Bohai Rim;the ‘Low-Low’ cluster area is grouped in the southern China. 3) Economic development level, population density, traffic accessibility, temperature and land price, all affect the location choice of cold storage in varying degrees, while the impact of market demand on it is not explicit. 展开更多
关键词 cold storage spatial pattern evolution kernel density estimation(KDE) spatial autocorrelation analysis(SAA) spatial error model(SEM) China
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中国创业持续性的时空特征及其影响因素
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作者 陈广平 王琛 刘志高 《地理科学进展》 北大核心 2025年第3期460-477,共18页
创业持续性研究对于诊断区域经济可持续发展能力和识别空间失衡问题具有重要意义。论文基于1989-2022年长时间序列城市尺度的创业数据,利用皮尔逊相关系数、核密度估计等方法探究了中国261个城市创业率的持续时间跨度、强度及时空演化... 创业持续性研究对于诊断区域经济可持续发展能力和识别空间失衡问题具有重要意义。论文基于1989-2022年长时间序列城市尺度的创业数据,利用皮尔逊相关系数、核密度估计等方法探究了中国261个城市创业率的持续时间跨度、强度及时空演化特征。通过构建区域的制度性、历史性、结构性和先天性因素四维度分析框架,采用空间杜宾误差模型,探讨了长期以来持续影响中国城市创业率的因素及其空间效应。研究发现:(1)观测期内中国城市创业活动具有一定程度的持续性,并且存在4个明显的持续时间段,每个持续时段的时间跨度为8~15年;(2) 1989年以来,中国城市创业持续性呈减弱趋势,其中2008—2013年的创业持续性最强,超过一半(54.02%)城市的创业率等级保持不变;(3)中国创业持续性现象主要发生在低创业水平的城市;(4)长期正向作用于城市创业率的因素包括城市行政等级、创业文化、历史重大基础设施和沿海性,而历史人口密度和地形起伏度是长期抑制地区创业水平的重要因素,随着时间推移,知识储备量和国有企业数量占比的作用效果由正转负。研究结论为制定区域经济协调可持续发展政策提供了理论支撑。 展开更多
关键词 创业活动 持续性 路径依赖 空间依赖 空间杜宾误差模型
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中国县域人口高龄化时空演化特征及影响因素
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作者 张凤 唐业清 +4 位作者 徐洋 郭乘行 邹璐 刘文新 刘世薇 《地理科学》 北大核心 2025年第3期556-566,共11页
以县域为基本研究单元,运用2000年、2010年和2020年全国人口普查等数据,采用高龄化系数、高龄人口集中度、空间自相关等指标方法,研究中国县域人口高龄化的时空演化特征及影响因素。结果表明:①中国高龄人口规模和比重都呈上升趋势,高... 以县域为基本研究单元,运用2000年、2010年和2020年全国人口普查等数据,采用高龄化系数、高龄人口集中度、空间自相关等指标方法,研究中国县域人口高龄化的时空演化特征及影响因素。结果表明:①中国高龄人口规模和比重都呈上升趋势,高龄化速度加快,高龄化趋势日益突出;人口高龄化存在着较大的城乡差异,城镇高龄化程度高于乡村。②空间上东部沿海地区高龄化水平高于中西部内陆地区;人口高龄化空间格局未突破“胡焕庸线”;高龄化在性别上以及民族与非民族地域上表现为较大差异;高龄化在空间上具有较强相关性,空间聚集特征日益显著。③近20 a来,中国县域人口高龄化的影响因素从人口和自然因素为主向人口、自然、社会经济多因素转变。 展开更多
关键词 人口高龄化 县域 空间误差模型 中国
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基于切片Gibbs抽样算法的空间误差模型的贝叶斯参数估计
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作者 李澳归 赵远英 《山东大学学报(理学版)》 北大核心 2025年第3期116-126,共11页
提出一种切片Gibbs抽样的马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(Markov chain Monte Carlo,MCMC)算法来计算空间误差模型未知参数的联合贝叶斯估计,通过2个模拟仿真说明提出的贝叶斯估计方法的有效性与切片Gibbs抽样算法的优势,实证分析说明模型和提出的... 提出一种切片Gibbs抽样的马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(Markov chain Monte Carlo,MCMC)算法来计算空间误差模型未知参数的联合贝叶斯估计,通过2个模拟仿真说明提出的贝叶斯估计方法的有效性与切片Gibbs抽样算法的优势,实证分析说明模型和提出的贝叶斯估计方法的有效性。 展开更多
关键词 贝叶斯估计 GIBBS抽样 切片抽样 空间误差模型
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