Load forecasting is of great significance to the development of new power systems.With the advancement of smart grids,the integration and distribution of distributed renewable energy sources and power electronics devi...Load forecasting is of great significance to the development of new power systems.With the advancement of smart grids,the integration and distribution of distributed renewable energy sources and power electronics devices have made power load data increasingly complex and volatile.This places higher demands on the prediction and analysis of power loads.In order to improve the prediction accuracy of short-term power load,a CNN-BiLSTMTPA short-term power prediction model based on the Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm(IWOA)with mixed strategies was proposed.Firstly,the model combined the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)with the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network(BiLSTM)to fully extract the spatio-temporal characteristics of the load data itself.Then,the Temporal Pattern Attention(TPA)mechanism was introduced into the CNN-BiLSTM model to automatically assign corresponding weights to the hidden states of the BiLSTM.This allowed the model to differentiate the importance of load sequences at different time intervals.At the same time,in order to solve the problem of the difficulties of selecting the parameters of the temporal model,and the poor global search ability of the whale algorithm,which is easy to fall into the local optimization,the whale algorithm(IWOA)was optimized by using the hybrid strategy of Tent chaos mapping and Levy flight strategy,so as to better search the parameters of the model.In this experiment,the real load data of a region in Zhejiang was taken as an example to analyze,and the prediction accuracy(R2)of the proposed method reached 98.83%.Compared with the prediction models such as BP,WOA-CNN-BiLSTM,SSA-CNN-BiLSTM,CNN-BiGRU-Attention,etc.,the experimental results showed that the model proposed in this study has a higher prediction accuracy.展开更多
Since the existing prediction methods have encountered difficulties in processing themultiple influencing factors in short-term power load forecasting,we propose a bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM)neural ne...Since the existing prediction methods have encountered difficulties in processing themultiple influencing factors in short-term power load forecasting,we propose a bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM)neural network model based on the temporal pattern attention(TPA)mechanism.Firstly,based on the grey relational analysis,datasets similar to forecast day are obtained.Secondly,thebidirectional LSTM layermodels the data of thehistorical load,temperature,humidity,and date-type and extracts complex relationships between data from the hidden row vectors obtained by the BiLSTM network,so that the influencing factors(with different characteristics)can select relevant information from different time steps to reduce the prediction error of the model.Simultaneously,the complex and nonlinear dependencies between time steps and sequences are extracted by the TPA mechanism,so the attention weight vector is constructed for the hidden layer output of BiLSTM and the relevant variables at different time steps are weighted to influence the input.Finally,the chaotic sparrow search algorithm(CSSA)is used to optimize the hyperparameter selection of the model.The short-term power load forecasting on different data sets shows that the average absolute errors of short-termpower load forecasting based on our method are 0.876 and 4.238,respectively,which is lower than other forecastingmethods,demonstrating the accuracy and stability of our model.展开更多
为准确预测电力负荷对优化发电和调度计划的影响,提升经济效益,保障电网安全运行,提出一种基于体感温度和改进菲克定律算法(improved Fick’s law algorithm,IFLA)优化CNN-BiLSTM的短期电力负荷预测模型。采用Logistic映射、柯西-高斯...为准确预测电力负荷对优化发电和调度计划的影响,提升经济效益,保障电网安全运行,提出一种基于体感温度和改进菲克定律算法(improved Fick’s law algorithm,IFLA)优化CNN-BiLSTM的短期电力负荷预测模型。采用Logistic映射、柯西-高斯变异策略、螺旋波动搜索等改进FLA。首先用体感温度公式对气象数据进行特征增强处理,其次通过IFLA对CNN-BiLSTM网络进行超参数优化,最后由CNNBiLSTM对数据进行特征提取并输出负荷预测结果。通过对2022年3月湖南某地居民用电负荷数据集进行仿真实验,实验结果表明,IFLA-CNN-BiLSTM预测模型输出的均方根误差为1.305、平均绝对误差为0.882、平均绝对百分数误差为2.558%、决定系数分别为0.989,验证了该模型在实际应用环境下的泛化性及可靠性。展开更多
Short-term load forecasting(STLF)can be utilized to predict usage fluctuation in a short time period and accurate forecasting can save a big chunk of a country’s economic loss.This paper introduces the crafting of va...Short-term load forecasting(STLF)can be utilized to predict usage fluctuation in a short time period and accurate forecasting can save a big chunk of a country’s economic loss.This paper introduces the crafting of various features for hourly electric load forecasting on three different datasets using four different models XGBoost,LightGBM,Bi-LSTM,and Random Forest.The importance of crafted features over basic features was analysed by different evaluation metrics MAE,RMSE,R-squared,and MAPE.Evaluation metrics showed that prediction accuracy increased significantly with crafted features in comparison to basic features for all four models.We also showcased the ability of the Polar Bear Optimisation(PBO)algorithm for hyperparameter tuning of the machine learning models in STLF.Optimized hyperparameters with PBO effectively decreased RMSE,MAE,and MAPE and improved the model prediction,showcasing the capability of the PBO in hyperparameter tuning for STLF.PBO was compared with commonly used optimization algorithms like particle swarm optimization(PSO)and genetic algorithm(GA).GA was the least performing with XGBoost,LightGBM,and Random Forest.PSO and PBO were comparable with XGBoost LightGBM and Random Forest while PBO highly surpassed PSO with the Bi-LSTM model.Hence PBO was proved to be highly effective for hyperparameter tuning for implementation in short-term electric load forecasting.展开更多
文摘Load forecasting is of great significance to the development of new power systems.With the advancement of smart grids,the integration and distribution of distributed renewable energy sources and power electronics devices have made power load data increasingly complex and volatile.This places higher demands on the prediction and analysis of power loads.In order to improve the prediction accuracy of short-term power load,a CNN-BiLSTMTPA short-term power prediction model based on the Improved Whale Optimization Algorithm(IWOA)with mixed strategies was proposed.Firstly,the model combined the Convolutional Neural Network(CNN)with the Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Network(BiLSTM)to fully extract the spatio-temporal characteristics of the load data itself.Then,the Temporal Pattern Attention(TPA)mechanism was introduced into the CNN-BiLSTM model to automatically assign corresponding weights to the hidden states of the BiLSTM.This allowed the model to differentiate the importance of load sequences at different time intervals.At the same time,in order to solve the problem of the difficulties of selecting the parameters of the temporal model,and the poor global search ability of the whale algorithm,which is easy to fall into the local optimization,the whale algorithm(IWOA)was optimized by using the hybrid strategy of Tent chaos mapping and Levy flight strategy,so as to better search the parameters of the model.In this experiment,the real load data of a region in Zhejiang was taken as an example to analyze,and the prediction accuracy(R2)of the proposed method reached 98.83%.Compared with the prediction models such as BP,WOA-CNN-BiLSTM,SSA-CNN-BiLSTM,CNN-BiGRU-Attention,etc.,the experimental results showed that the model proposed in this study has a higher prediction accuracy.
基金supported by the Major Project of Basic and Applied Research in Guangdong Universities (2017WZDXM012)。
文摘Since the existing prediction methods have encountered difficulties in processing themultiple influencing factors in short-term power load forecasting,we propose a bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM)neural network model based on the temporal pattern attention(TPA)mechanism.Firstly,based on the grey relational analysis,datasets similar to forecast day are obtained.Secondly,thebidirectional LSTM layermodels the data of thehistorical load,temperature,humidity,and date-type and extracts complex relationships between data from the hidden row vectors obtained by the BiLSTM network,so that the influencing factors(with different characteristics)can select relevant information from different time steps to reduce the prediction error of the model.Simultaneously,the complex and nonlinear dependencies between time steps and sequences are extracted by the TPA mechanism,so the attention weight vector is constructed for the hidden layer output of BiLSTM and the relevant variables at different time steps are weighted to influence the input.Finally,the chaotic sparrow search algorithm(CSSA)is used to optimize the hyperparameter selection of the model.The short-term power load forecasting on different data sets shows that the average absolute errors of short-termpower load forecasting based on our method are 0.876 and 4.238,respectively,which is lower than other forecastingmethods,demonstrating the accuracy and stability of our model.
文摘为准确预测电力负荷对优化发电和调度计划的影响,提升经济效益,保障电网安全运行,提出一种基于体感温度和改进菲克定律算法(improved Fick’s law algorithm,IFLA)优化CNN-BiLSTM的短期电力负荷预测模型。采用Logistic映射、柯西-高斯变异策略、螺旋波动搜索等改进FLA。首先用体感温度公式对气象数据进行特征增强处理,其次通过IFLA对CNN-BiLSTM网络进行超参数优化,最后由CNNBiLSTM对数据进行特征提取并输出负荷预测结果。通过对2022年3月湖南某地居民用电负荷数据集进行仿真实验,实验结果表明,IFLA-CNN-BiLSTM预测模型输出的均方根误差为1.305、平均绝对误差为0.882、平均绝对百分数误差为2.558%、决定系数分别为0.989,验证了该模型在实际应用环境下的泛化性及可靠性。
基金supported by the project FlexEnergy under the call 09I02-03-V2-Transformation and innovation consortia.
文摘Short-term load forecasting(STLF)can be utilized to predict usage fluctuation in a short time period and accurate forecasting can save a big chunk of a country’s economic loss.This paper introduces the crafting of various features for hourly electric load forecasting on three different datasets using four different models XGBoost,LightGBM,Bi-LSTM,and Random Forest.The importance of crafted features over basic features was analysed by different evaluation metrics MAE,RMSE,R-squared,and MAPE.Evaluation metrics showed that prediction accuracy increased significantly with crafted features in comparison to basic features for all four models.We also showcased the ability of the Polar Bear Optimisation(PBO)algorithm for hyperparameter tuning of the machine learning models in STLF.Optimized hyperparameters with PBO effectively decreased RMSE,MAE,and MAPE and improved the model prediction,showcasing the capability of the PBO in hyperparameter tuning for STLF.PBO was compared with commonly used optimization algorithms like particle swarm optimization(PSO)and genetic algorithm(GA).GA was the least performing with XGBoost,LightGBM,and Random Forest.PSO and PBO were comparable with XGBoost LightGBM and Random Forest while PBO highly surpassed PSO with the Bi-LSTM model.Hence PBO was proved to be highly effective for hyperparameter tuning for implementation in short-term electric load forecasting.
