Recent years have witnessed increasingly frequent extreme precipitation events,especially in desert steppes in the semi-arid and arid transition zone.Focusing on a desert steppe in western-central Inner Mongolia Auton...Recent years have witnessed increasingly frequent extreme precipitation events,especially in desert steppes in the semi-arid and arid transition zone.Focusing on a desert steppe in western-central Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,China,this study aimed to determine the principle time-varying pattern of extreme precipitation and its dominant climate forcings during the period 1988-2017.Based on the generalized additive models for location,scale,and shape(GAMLSS)modeling framework,we developed the best time-dependent models for the extreme precipitation series at nine stations,as well as the optimized non-stationary models with large-scale climate indices(including the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO),Southern Oscillation(SO),Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),Arctic Oscillation(AO),and North Pacific Oscillation(NPO))as covariates.The results indicated that extreme precipitation remained stationary at more than half of the stations(Hailisu,Wuyuan,Dengkou,Hanggin Rear Banner,Urad Front Banner,and Yikewusu),while linear and non-linear time-varying patterns were quantitatively identified at the other stations(Urad Middle Banner,Linhe,and Wuhai).These non-stationary behaviors of extreme precipitation were mainly reflected in the mean value of extreme precipitation.The optimized non-stationary models performed best,indicating the significant influences of large-scale climate indices on extreme precipitation.In particular,the NAO,NPO,SO,and AMO remained as covariates and significantly influenced the variations in the extreme precipitation regime.Our findings have important reference significance for gaining an in-depth understanding of the driving mechanism of the non-stationary behavior of extreme precipitation and enable advanced predictions of rainstorm risks.展开更多
The Dagum model is particularly suitable for the analysis of the distributions of economic quantities, such as income, assets and consumption. The purpose of this note is to derive the expression of the mean deviation...The Dagum model is particularly suitable for the analysis of the distributions of economic quantities, such as income, assets and consumption. The purpose of this note is to derive the expression of the mean deviation from the median of the Dagum distribution to study the behavior of the scale and shape parameters in terms of absolute variability and in terms of relative variability.展开更多
基金funded by the Yinshanbeilu Grassland Eco-hydrology National Observation and Research Station,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research(YSS202105)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52269005)+3 种基金the Inner Mongolia Science and Technology Plan Project(2022YFSH0105)the Central Guidance for Local Science and Technology Development Fund Projects(2024ZY0002)the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region University Youth Science and Technology Talent Project(NJYT 22037)the Inner Mongolia Agricultural University Young Teachers'Scientific Research Ability Improvement Project(BR220104).
文摘Recent years have witnessed increasingly frequent extreme precipitation events,especially in desert steppes in the semi-arid and arid transition zone.Focusing on a desert steppe in western-central Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,China,this study aimed to determine the principle time-varying pattern of extreme precipitation and its dominant climate forcings during the period 1988-2017.Based on the generalized additive models for location,scale,and shape(GAMLSS)modeling framework,we developed the best time-dependent models for the extreme precipitation series at nine stations,as well as the optimized non-stationary models with large-scale climate indices(including the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO),Southern Oscillation(SO),Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),Arctic Oscillation(AO),and North Pacific Oscillation(NPO))as covariates.The results indicated that extreme precipitation remained stationary at more than half of the stations(Hailisu,Wuyuan,Dengkou,Hanggin Rear Banner,Urad Front Banner,and Yikewusu),while linear and non-linear time-varying patterns were quantitatively identified at the other stations(Urad Middle Banner,Linhe,and Wuhai).These non-stationary behaviors of extreme precipitation were mainly reflected in the mean value of extreme precipitation.The optimized non-stationary models performed best,indicating the significant influences of large-scale climate indices on extreme precipitation.In particular,the NAO,NPO,SO,and AMO remained as covariates and significantly influenced the variations in the extreme precipitation regime.Our findings have important reference significance for gaining an in-depth understanding of the driving mechanism of the non-stationary behavior of extreme precipitation and enable advanced predictions of rainstorm risks.
文摘The Dagum model is particularly suitable for the analysis of the distributions of economic quantities, such as income, assets and consumption. The purpose of this note is to derive the expression of the mean deviation from the median of the Dagum distribution to study the behavior of the scale and shape parameters in terms of absolute variability and in terms of relative variability.
